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3 STAR SELECTION (3% of Bankroll)
Wake Forest -2½ over Navy
The 2008-2009 college football bowl season kicks off early on Saturday, as the Demon Deacons and Midshipmen collide on the gridiron for the 2nd time this year.
Earlier this season, Navy snapped a four-game losing skid against Wake Forest with a 24-17 victory. Wake Forest's season began with three straight wins, including a hard-fought 12-3 win over Florida State on the road. However, the team stumbled after the quick start, losing to the Middies and then 2 of its next 3 games. The Deacons were able to close out the regular season with a 23-10 victory over Vanderbilt, and with a win here, it would be the third straight season with eight wins for Wake Forest.
As for Navy, they lost two of their first three games this year, but rebounded with three consecutive wins, including the victory over Wake Forest. After a 21-point loss to Pittsburgh, the Midshipmen closed out their regular season with four wins in their final five contests, and that includes two consecutive shutout victories over Northern Illinois and Army.
Inconsistency plagued the Demon Deacons offense this year, as the team averaged just 300 total ypg, leading to 20 ppg. The ground game was extremely ineffective, as the team finished with just 111.6 ypg. QB Riley Skinner did complete 63% of his throws for over 2,000 yards with 12 scores against seven interceptions.
Wake was clearly carried by their defensive unit this season, which limited the opposition to just 18 ppg. and less than 300 total ypg. Wake Forest did a sensational job against the run, finishing 21st in the nation, holding teams to just 114 ypg on 3.3 ypc. The defensive unit also made plenty of big plays, forcing 35 turnovers on the year, while collecting 24 sacks.
The Deacons will certainly get tested here, as Navy lead the nation in rushing. The Midshipmen finished the regular season averaging nearly 300 ypg on the ground, leading to a healthy 28 ppg. Shun White has been the main option out of the backfield, as the tailback led the team with 1,021 yards and eight scores on the year. Eric Kettani contributed 932 yards and four touchdowns on the season, while Ricky Dobbs found the end zone eight times to go along with 493 yards in just seven games. Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada has been a real threat in his tenure in Annapolis, but the signal caller suffered an injury early in the year, and participated in only five games. Kaheaku-Enhada led the way for Navy in the season- finale win over Army, and will likely be on the field against Wake Forest Saturday.
The Midshipmen have not been strong defensively despite the recent shutouts, but the unit has done enough to help the team rack up victories. Navy is currently surrendered over 340 total ypg, and that has led to about 22 ppg. The team has forced 29 turnovers on the season, but the unit has struggled to pressure the quarterback, racking up just 17 sacks. The defense has also allowed opponents to convert on 47 percent of their third down attempts, and 75 percent of their red zone chances.
The Midshipmen got the better of Wake Forest earlier in the season on the road, but the Demon Deacons have improved dramatically since and they’re looking forward to this rematch. It isn't often a college football team gets an opportunity to avenge a loss in the same season, but Wake has been provided this chance and look to make the most of it. Turnovers were the culprit against Navy. Riley Skinner threw four interceptions — he would have only three more picks the rest of the season — and Navy enjoyed a 6-2 advantage in turnovers. The Deacs were in a 17-0 hole before the end of the first half, and could not contain the Mid option, in particular bruising FB Eric Kettani, who rumbled for 175 YR. Navy eventually held on despite losing QB Kaipo-Noa Keahaku-Enhada to a hamstring injury before halftime.
We don't see the dynamics being the same for this rematch. By simply keeping better care of the ball, Wake is unlikely to dig itself another hole and allow Navy to rigidly adhere to its chain-moving option strategy. Skinner rarely self-destructs as he did back in that September loss. A healthier TB Josh Adams and emerging RS frosh RB Brandon Pendergrass should aid the Deacs' ability to establish their own offensive attack. And though we have a lot of respect for Navy's trademark spunk, we don't see Wake head coach Jim Grobe slipping twice in the same year vs. the Middies.
"If you're a quarterback, and you've had that kind of game, the worst game of your career, you'd be crazy if you didn't want another shot at them," QB Skinner said. "As much as I hate watching the film the last two weeks, over and over again, it kind of gives you a little motivation and urgency to get back out there and go play these guys again, and kind of prove something and get a little revenge.
"That's obviously, from my standpoint, what I'd like to do," he added. "Just knowing that you were pretty much the reason for that loss is pretty tough on you, but it's also motivating."
"It's a great opportunity. We played them earlier this year in which we lost a game we thought we could have won," Wake Forest cornerback Alphonso Smith said. "We didn't play as well, we didn't play Wake Forest football."
We often look to play ON a good team looking to avenge an embarrassing loss. A proud squad that looked awful in a loss will be determined to show the opponent and the world that the previous meeting’s outcome was a fluke and that they are the better team. Meanwhile, their foe is likely to be a little over-confident and/or not bring the same level of motivation as before. Wake Forest is 3-0 SU & ATS since last season as a favorite playing with revenge.
As it turns out, bowl teams that were heavily favored in a previous meeting have taken care of business when not rusty or heavily favored in the rematches. This is confirmed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours that states:
Play ON a Bowl team (not a favorite of 7+ points) with less than 29 days rest favored by 10+ points in the previous matchup.
Since at least 1980, these teams are 10-0-1 ATS, beating the spread by nearly 2 TDs per game on average.
We’ve also discovered a small but very strong situation in which very small Bowl favorites have been under-valued coming off a win that snapped a losing streak. Specifically, Bowl favorites of 3 points or less off a SU win in its last game (not as an underdog of 23+ points) and 2 SU losses before that are 7-0 ATS since at least 1980, blasting the spread by more than 18 points per game on average! Every cover has been more than a TD.
As soon as it became clear Navy would be in this Bowl Game, the wait began for an opponent from the ACC. When talk started that it just might be Wake Forest, Navy made it clear it had no interest in playing the Demon Deacons again. Like it or not, Wake Forest is coming to Washington for the first game of this bowl season. There was just no way around Navy-Wake II.
Time off is probably not what the Midshipmen needed, either, stopping their roll, as they are 0-3 ATS with 2 weeks off and not playing Army.
Despite shutting out their last opponents, Bowl underdogs and small favorites have fallen flat. In another situation that has few qualifying games but has been very strong, Bowl teams not favored by more than 2 points off a shutout SU win scoring 22+ points are 0-7 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 18 ppg.
In a related Bowl POWER SYSTEM:
Play AGAINST a Bowl team (not a favorite of more than 6 points or underdog of more than 7 points) with less than 48 days rest off allowing less than a total of 12 points in its last 2 games vs. an opponent not off 2 favorite SU wins & ATS wins of more than 6 points.
These teams that were so “hot” defensively got cooled off in their Bowl Games, going 0-20 ATS since at least 1980, failing to cover the spread by nearly 17 ppg on average! How did their defense fare in the Bowl Games? Only 1 of the last 11 qualifying teams played well on defense, although they still failed to cover the number. The other 10 most-recent qualifying teams have given up 48, 42, 34, 39, 41, 26, 30, 27, 55, and 31 points!
Navy's option attack and sound defense give it a chance to win every time it takes the field, but look for Wake Forest to avenge its loss to the Midshipmen for two reasons.
The first is Skinner. Look for Skinner to do a far better job of taking care of the football than he did when these two teams met in September. He'll also extend drives with his feet as well as his arm.
The second reason is the Demon Deacons have had far more time to prepare for the option than they did the first time around, so they are less prone to making mistakes. Just as importantly, they have the talent and experience on the defensive side of the ball to take advantage of this edge.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WAKE FOREST 34 NAVY 24
