HELMUT SPORTS
BYU VS. ARIZONA -3
O/U 61.5
Recommendation: Arizona
Sure, the Cougars racked up some lop-sided wins against very poor teams like UCLA and Wyoming, but when forced to play teams ranked in the top 25 they lost both games against TCU and Utah. The Wildcats played the tougher schedule between these teams and were in every game with the biggest loss being by 10 to Oregon. These teams met last season with Arizona breaking out its new spread offense. The Wildcats struggled to score but much has changed since then. Arizona has gone from averaging 16 ppg two years ago to 37 ppg this season. In the past six seasons, the BYU football team has played 12 games against the Pac-10 with a record of 5-7. I believe the difference in this game is going to be with the defenses. The Wildcats have the No. 20 overall defense while the Cougars rank 58th. Considering that four of BYU’s 12 games were against teams ranked 99th or worse, their defensive numbers are somewhat skewed. Often, bowl games come down to what team has more interest. Arizona is going to the postseason for the first time since 1998 while BYU is going to its fourth consecutive Vegas jaunt. The Wildcats, after beating rival Arizona State, graciously accepted their bid. BYU, after getting spanked by rival Utah, was in no such mood to celebrate another trip to Sin City
BYU VS. ARIZONA -3
O/U 61.5
Recommendation: Arizona
Sure, the Cougars racked up some lop-sided wins against very poor teams like UCLA and Wyoming, but when forced to play teams ranked in the top 25 they lost both games against TCU and Utah. The Wildcats played the tougher schedule between these teams and were in every game with the biggest loss being by 10 to Oregon. These teams met last season with Arizona breaking out its new spread offense. The Wildcats struggled to score but much has changed since then. Arizona has gone from averaging 16 ppg two years ago to 37 ppg this season. In the past six seasons, the BYU football team has played 12 games against the Pac-10 with a record of 5-7. I believe the difference in this game is going to be with the defenses. The Wildcats have the No. 20 overall defense while the Cougars rank 58th. Considering that four of BYU’s 12 games were against teams ranked 99th or worse, their defensive numbers are somewhat skewed. Often, bowl games come down to what team has more interest. Arizona is going to the postseason for the first time since 1998 while BYU is going to its fourth consecutive Vegas jaunt. The Wildcats, after beating rival Arizona State, graciously accepted their bid. BYU, after getting spanked by rival Utah, was in no such mood to celebrate another trip to Sin City
Mr. A
Saturday, December 20th, 2008 11:00 a.m. est.
EagleBank Bowl
Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Navy (8-4) Navy Midshipmen +3
Wake Forest Demon Deacons have won four of the last five meetings and hold a 6-3 edge in the all-time series against Navy Midshipmen. However, The road team in this series is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and Navy is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. Wake Forest is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Saturday, December 20th, 2008 2:30 p.m. est.
New Mexico Bowl
Colorado State (6-6) vs. Fresno State (7-5) Colorado State Rams +3
Fresno State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games, 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games versus Colorado State
Saturday, December 20th, 2008 4:30 p.m. est.
St. Petersburg Bowl
Memphis (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5) Memphis Tigers +12½
South Florida Bulls are 1-3 ATS in the past four games against the Memphis Tigers.
Saturday, December 20th, 2008 8:00 p.m. est.
Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
BYU (10-2) vs Arizona (7-5) Brigham Young Cougars +3
BYU Cougars are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall, but have won three of the last four meetings versus Arizona and the past three Las Vegas Bowls.
Saturday, December 20th, 2008 11:00 a.m. est.
EagleBank Bowl
Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Navy (8-4) Navy Midshipmen +3
Wake Forest Demon Deacons have won four of the last five meetings and hold a 6-3 edge in the all-time series against Navy Midshipmen. However, The road team in this series is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and Navy is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. Wake Forest is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Saturday, December 20th, 2008 2:30 p.m. est.
New Mexico Bowl
Colorado State (6-6) vs. Fresno State (7-5) Colorado State Rams +3
Fresno State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games, 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games versus Colorado State
Saturday, December 20th, 2008 4:30 p.m. est.
St. Petersburg Bowl
Memphis (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5) Memphis Tigers +12½
South Florida Bulls are 1-3 ATS in the past four games against the Memphis Tigers.
Saturday, December 20th, 2008 8:00 p.m. est.
Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
BYU (10-2) vs Arizona (7-5) Brigham Young Cougars +3
BYU Cougars are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall, but have won three of the last four meetings versus Arizona and the past three Las Vegas Bowls.
Gina's
Saturday, December 20th, 8:15 p.m. est.
Baltimore Ravens (9-5) at Dallas Cowboys (9-5)
The Ravens potent defense will be a tough challenge for the Cowboys, but Romo and his boys at Texas Stadium in a crucial battle will be a bigger task for the Ravens. Go with Dallas at home in a close hard fought fight. Dallas has won its last 5 games at home.
Dallas Cowboys -4
Saturday, December 20th, 8:15 p.m. est.
Baltimore Ravens (9-5) at Dallas Cowboys (9-5)
The Ravens potent defense will be a tough challenge for the Cowboys, but Romo and his boys at Texas Stadium in a crucial battle will be a bigger task for the Ravens. Go with Dallas at home in a close hard fought fight. Dallas has won its last 5 games at home.
Dallas Cowboys -4
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Baltimore (9-5, 10-4 ATS) at Dallas (9-5, 7-7 ATS)
Two teams aiming to stay entrenched in the playoff race square off in a non-conference clash as the Cowboys host the Ravens in what will likely be the last game at Texas Stadium. Dallas rode its defense to a 20-8 victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Giants as a three-point home chalk Sunday night, winning and cashing for the fourth time in five weeks. QB Tony Romo (20 of 30, 244 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was sharp, the offense didn’t commit a turnover and the defense sacked New York QB Eli Manning eight times, forcing two turnovers and allowing just 218 total yards. The Cowboys control their own destiny for a wild-card berth and can earn their third straight postseason berth by sweeping their final two games. Baltimore suffered a controversial 13-9 loss to Pittsburgh as a three-point home favorite Sunday, giving up a 92-yard touchdown drive in the final minutes, with the Steelers scoring the game’s only touchdown with 43 seconds left on a play that was reversed by replay. The Ravens had their three-game SU and ATS winning streak halted in the defeat, which gave Pittsburgh the NFC North title and dropped Baltimore into the wild-card race. Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco (11 of 28, 115 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) had a dismal day versus Pittsburgh’s top-ranked defense, accounting for both of his team’s turnovers. Baltimore netted just 202 total yards, while allowing 311 – nearly a third of which came on the Steelers’ game-winning TD drive. The SU winner is now on a 23-2 ATS roll in the Ravens’ last 25 games, including 13-1 ATS this season. The winner is also 9-0 ATS in Dallas’ last nine games and 12-2 ATS in its 14 contests this year. These teams have met just twice this decade, with Baltimore going 2-0 SU and ATS, winning by a combined score of 57-10. Most recently, the Ravens rolled 30-10 laying 7½ points at home in 2004.
This contest features two of the NFL’s top stop units. Baltimore is second in the league in total defense (257.5 ypg) and third in scoring defense (15.2 ppg), and Dallas is seventh in total defense (287.0 ypg) and 12th in scoring defense (20.6 ppg). Over their last four games, the Ravens have given up a total of three touchdowns and 33 points, while the Cowboys have surrendered just 37 points and two touchdowns in their last three contests, with one of the TDs the result of an interception returned for a score. Despite Sunday’s victory over the Giants, the Cowboys remain on a 1-7 ATS slide in December, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 4-0 at home and 5-0 as a favorite, and they are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a non-conference chalk. The Ravens are on ATS skids of 0-4 on Saturdays and 5-12 after a SU loss, but they carry positive pointspread trends of 7-2 overall, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 after an ATS setback. The under for Dallas is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-0 in December and 4-1 against winning teams. On the flip side, the over for Baltimore is on stretches of 6-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the highway and 8-2-1 as a road underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
EAGLEBANK BOWL
Navy (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Wake Forest (7-5, 5-7 ATS) (at Washington, D.C.)
Wake Forest gets a chance to avenge its first loss of the season when it takes on the Midshipmen in the inaugural EagleBank Bowl at RFK Stadium.
These squads met back on Sept. 27 in Winston-Salem, N.C., with Navy pulling off a 24-17 upset win as a 17-point road ‘dog, the Middies first victory over a ranked team in 33 years. Wake Forest had six turnovers in the game, with QB Riley Skinner throwing four interceptions, including a fourth-quarter pick that sealed the Deacons’ fate. Navy outrushed Wake Forest, 292-43. The victory over Wake Forest ignited the Middies, who went on to win five of their final seven (4-3 ATS). That included back-to-back shutouts to close the season – a 16-0 win at Northern Illinois as a three-point underdog and a 34-0 whitewash of archrival Army as a 10½-point chalk. Navy led the nation in rushing at 298.3 yards per contest and Shun White was third in the country averaging 8.7 yards per carry en route to 1,021 rushing yards and eight TDs in 12 games. Bruising FB Eric Kettani ran for 932 yards and four TDs, including a career-high 175 yards against Wake Forest back in September. Beginning with loss to Navy, the Demon Deacons lost five of their last nine games (3-6 ATS) and finished tied for third in the ACC’s Atlantic Division. Wake Forest, which closed the regular season with a 23-10 non-conference win over Vanderbilt as a four-point home favorite on Nov. 29, ranked 103rd in total offense, averaging just 315.8 yards per game, and they have scored just 20 TDs in 41 trips inside the red zone. Meanwhile, after throwing four INTs against Navy, Skinner threw six TDs and just three picks in his final eight games.
This is Navy’s sixth-consecutive bowl appearance, a school record, going 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five, including four consecutive spread-covers. The Demon Deacons are in their fourth straight bowl game (2-1 SU and ATS in the previous three). This will be the third meeting between these squads in the last 14 months, including Wake Forest’s 44-24 victory as a three-point road favorite back on Oct. 20, 2007. The Demon Deacons have won four of the last five meetings going back to 1998, going 3-2 ATS. The Middies are on ATS runs of 22-8 away from home, 4-0 in bowl games, 4-0 in December, 4-1 in neutral-site games, 5-2 in non-conference contests and 7-3 against ACC foes. Wake Forest is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games against winning teams and 4-0 ATS in its last four December contests, but the Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four after a spread-cover. Navy has stayed under the total in four of its last five overall, but otherwise it’s all “over” streaks for the Middies, including 8-1-1 against ACC teams, 4-0 in bowl games, 9-4 in neutral-site games and 7-2 when coming off a spread-cover. The Demon Deacons are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 7-2 overall, 17-6-1 in non-conference games, 4-0 in December, 4-0 in bowl games and 4-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, these teams totaled just 41 points in their September meeting, staying well under the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NEW MEXICO BOWL
Fresno State (7-5, 2-10 ATS) vs. Colorado State (6-6, 6-5 ATS) (at Albuquerque, N.M)
Fresno State guns for its fifth bowl victory in the last seven seasons when it battles the Rams at University Stadium in Albuquerque. The Bulldogs qualified for this contest despite losing three of their final five games (1-4 ATS), including getting destroyed 61-10 at Boise State in the season finale Nov. 28, falling way short as a 21½-point road ‘dog as they got outgained by 200 yards. Senior QB Tom Brandstater threw for 2,478 yards and 17 TDs this season, but also tossed 11 INTs. The Bulldogs averaged 176.8 rushing ypg, but RB Anthony Harden had just 11 yards on nine carries in Boise. Also, Fresno’s defense was a weak link all season, giving up 30.3 points and 393.6 total yards per game (197.4 rushing ypg).
First-year Colorado State coach Steve Fairchild guided the Rams to their first bowl berth since 2005. They won their final two games to become bowl eligible, beating New Mexico 20-6 as three-point home favorites on Nov. 15, then going to Wyoming and routing the archrival Cowboys 31-20 as a 1½-point road chalk the following week. Like Fresno, CSU has struggled in a big way on defense, allowing 29.8 points and 410.2 total yards per game (189.4 rushing ypg). These teams squared off in 2006 with Colorado State prevailing 35-23 as a 14-point road-dog in Fresno. They have split four meetings since 2001, but the Rams are 3-1 ATS during this stretch. While Colorado State hasn’t been to a bowl since beating Navy 51-30 in the 2005 Poinsettia Bowl, Fresno State is playing its ninth bowl game in the last 10 years, and the ‘Dogs are 10-7 SU and 6-6 ATS all-time in the postseason, including 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS under coach Pat Hill. The underdog is a perfect 8-0 ATS in Fresno’s last eight bowl contests, with the Bulldogs being the favorite in three of those contests. Fresno State is 11-25 ATS over the last three full seasons, including 1-9 ATS in the last 10 this year. Additionally, the Bulldogs mired in ATS slumps of 7-19 as a favorite, 4-9 in non-conference games, 1-5 against Mountain West Conference squads and 16-35-1 following a non-cover. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four December contests and 12-18 ATS as an underdog since 2004, including 0-4 SU and ATS as a road pup this season. On the bright side, Colorado State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 on grass and 5-1 ATS in its last six after a straight-up win. For Fresno, the over is on streaks of 5-2 in bowl games, 6-2 in non-conference contests and 5-2-1 with the Bulldogs as a favorite. The over is 5-1 in Colorado State’s last six overall, but otherwise the Rams are on under runs of 8-3 as an underdog, 11-4 after a straight-up win and 10-4-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: COLORADO STATE
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
Memphis (6-6, 5-6 ATS) vs. South Florida (7-5, 4-7 ATS) (at St. Petersburg, Fla.)
South Florida makes the short trek from its Tampa Bay campus to Tropicana Field and will have a virtual home game when it battles Memphis in the inaugural St. Petersburg Bowl. South Florida opened the season with five straight wins and climbed to No. 10 in the rankings before losing five of its last seven (3-4 ATS). The Bulls struggled offensively, failing to score more than 20 points in any of their last five, with senior QB Matt Grothe being the biggest culprit as the threw just three TD passes and 11 INTs during this stretch. South Florida averaged 14.8 points in its five losses and 34.9 points in its seven wins. Memphis won three of its last four SU and ATS to get into the postseason, including a 45-6 rout over Tulane as a 14½-point favorite. Junior RB Curtis Steele rushed for 1,175 yards and seven TDs to become the school’s first 1,000-yard rusher in three years. None of the Tigers’ six victories came against an opponent that finished with a winning record, and Memphis averaged 34.2 points in its six wins and just 22.3 points in its six defeats. South Florida is in its fourth straight bowl game, going 1-2 SU and ATS in the previous three, including last season’s embarrassing 56-21 loss to Oregon in the Sun Bowl as a 5½-point favorite. Memphis has won three of its five bowl games all-time, including a 44-27 loss to Florida Atlantic in last year’s New Orleans Bowl as a 3½-point ‘dog. These two were regular competitors earlier this decade, splitting four games both SU and ATS between 2001 and 2004.
Memphis is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 as a double-digit ‘dog, but 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games and 8-19-1 ATS in its last 28 after a SU win. South Florida is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games, but the Bulls have cashed in four of their last five against Conference USA foes. For Memphis, the over is on streaks 7-3-1 in non-conference games and 5-2 following a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Bulls have gone over the posted number in six of their last seven non-conference games, but the under is 4-1 in their last five overall and 4-1 in their last five December games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
LAS VEGAS BOWL
(17) BYU (10-2, 3-8 ATS) vs. Arizona (7-5 SU and ATS) (at Las Vegas)
The Cougars return to the Las Vegas Bowl for the fourth consecutive year, this time facing the Wildcats, who are making their first postseason appearance in a decade. BYU was ranked as high as No. 8 in the country before a 32-17 loss to unranked TCU on Oct. 16, failing as a 1½-point road ‘dog. Despite that setback, the Cougars were still on track to win at least a share of the Mountain West Conference crown, but that goal got squashed in a season-ending 48-24 loss to then-No. 8 Utah on Nov. 22, failing to cash as 6½-point road underdogs to end the season in a 1-7 ATS funk. QB Max Hall threw a career-high five INTs and no TDs in the loss to the rival Utes. Arizona outscored archrival Arizona State 24-0 in the second half on Dec. 6, rolling to a 31-10 victory as an 11-point home favorite to wrap up its first winning season since 1998, which was the last time the Wildcats earned a bowl berth. Arizona outgained the Sun Devils by 227 yards in halting a two-game SU and a three-game ATS slide.
The Cougars have won their last two bowl games inside Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas. In 2006, they clobbered Oregon 38-8 as a three-point favorite, then last year BYU blocked a field goal to secure a 17-16 win over UCLA, falling short as six-point favorites. Meanwhile, Arizona beat Nebraska 23-20 in the 1998 Holiday Bowl in its most recent postseason contest. These squads have met each of the last two regular seasons, with the host winning both and BYU going 2-0 ATS. Last year, the Cougars rolled 20-7 as a 3½-point favorite, with both QBs playing well, as Hall threw for 288 yards and two TDs and Tuitama passed for 216 yards and one score. Both teams feature high-powered offenses. Arizona ranks 16th in the nation in scoring offense (37.1 ppg) and averages 401.3 total ypg, as QB Willie Tuitama finished second in the Pac-10 in passing yards (2,763), TDs (21) and QB rating (143.0). The Cougars put up 35.3 ppg and 446 total ypg, and Hall (69.6 percent completion rate, 3,627 yards, 34 TDs, 13 INTs) led a passing attack that rates seventh in the nation (308.9 ypg). The Cougars have gotten the cash in six of their last eight after a straight-up loss, and they’re 5-1 SU in their last six games against Pac-10 foes (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS this year). Otherwise, BYU is on negative ATS streaks of 1-7 overall, 1-5 on the road this year, 1-5 in non-conference games, 0-4 in non-conference road games and 1-5 after a non-cover. Arizona has gone 0-4 ATS in its last four against Mountain West squads, 11-29 ATS in its last 40 as a favorite and 1-4 ATS on the highway this season, but the Wildcats are on positive pointspread streaks of 11-5 overall and 6-2 against teams with a winning record. The under is 4-1 in BYU’s last five bowl games and 5-2 in its last seven against Pac-10 squads. The Wildcats are on “under” runs that include 4-0 in December games, 11-5 after a spread-cover and 20-8 on grass. Also, both games between these schools the last two seasons have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(6) Duke (9-1, 5-4 ATS) vs. (7) Xavier (9-0, 4-4 ATS) (at East Rutherford, N.J.)
The Izod Center in East Rutherford hosts a clash of Top 10 programs, as Xavier puts its unbeaten season on the line against Duke.
The Musketeers remained perfect with last Saturday’s 76-66 rout of rival Cincinnati, cashing as a 2½-point road favorite. Xavier is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in road/neutral-site games this season, and the Musketeers are allowing opponents to make just 35.7 percent of their shots, which is the 12th best field-goal defense in the nation. Duke bounced back from its first loss – a shocking 81-73 defeat at Michigan as a 10-point road favorite two weeks ago – with Wednesday’s 99-56 rout of North Carolina-Asheville in a non-lined home game. The Blue Devils are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road, and eight of their nine their wins have come by double digits. Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s squad ranks 11th in the nation in scoring at 83.4 points per game. These teams last met in the Elite Eight of the 2004 NCAA Tournament, with Duke eking out a 66-63 victory, but the Musketeers cashed as a 6½-point underdog. The Blue Devils have failed to cash in five straight games on Saturday and nine of their last 13 at neutral venues. Meanwhile, Xavier is on ATS runs of 28-9 at neutral sites and 4-1 against winning teams, but they’ve failed to cover in eight of their last 11 on Saturday. For Duke, the under is on runs of 11-4 overall (all in non-conference play), 8-1 at neutral sites, 4-1 versus Atlantic 10 foes and 6-1 coming off a victory of more than 20 points. Conversely, the Musketeers are on over stretches of 3-0 overall, 12-5 in non-conference action, 4-1 on Saturday and 5-2 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: XAVIER
(19) Michigan State (7-2, 3-4 ATS) vs. (5) Texas (9-1, 4-3 ATS) (at Houston)
Texas takes its six-game winning streak east to Houston for a non-conference clash with Michigan State at the Toyota Center.
Since knocking off then-No. 15 Villanova 67-58 as a two-point favorite at Madison Square Garden in New York, the Longhorns have slept-walked to victories over Division II foes Southwest Texas State (81-73) and Texas Southern (88-72) in non-lined home games. Texas has scored at least 67 points in all 10 of its games and is outscoring visitors by an average of 17 points per game (76-59). Michigan State has ripped off three consecutive blowout home victories since an embarrassing loss to top-ranked North Carolina, crushing Bradley 75-59 as a 15-point home favorite, Alcorn State 118-60 in a non-lined game and The Citadel 79-65 as a 28-point home chalk, the latter contest played on Wednesday. The Spartans are 3-1 away from home, but 1-2 ATS. These teams met each of the last two years, with Michigan State going 2-0 SU and ATS, winning 78-72 as a 4½-point road underdog in 2006 and 78-72 as a four-point home chalk in 2007. The SU winner is 4-0 ATS in the last four head-to-head battles going back to 1999. The Spartans are on ATS upticks of 4-0 versus the Big 12 and 4-1 after a non-cover, but they’re 0-5 ATS in their last five after a SU victory and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on Saturday. Meanwhile, Texas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven on Saturday, but 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Big Ten. The over is 7-1 in Michigan’ State’s last eight games against Big 12 foes and 7-3 in Texas’ last 10 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(9) Louisville (6-1, 4-2 ATS) vs. Minnesota (9-0, 4-2 ATS) (at Glendale, Ariz.)
Minnesota puts its unbeaten record on the line at University of Phoenix Stadium when it faces its first Top 25 opponent this year in ninth-ranked Louisville. The Golden Gophers have rolled to five straight double-digit wins, going 3-0 ATS in lined contests during this stretch. They’ve been idle since Dec. 10, when they pounded South Dakota State 74-60 in a non-lined home game. Tubby Smith’s squad has played just once away from Minneapolis this year, and they eked out a 72-71 victory at Colorado State, pushing as a one-point road favorite. The Cardinals faced Ole Miss in a neutral-site game in Cincinnati on Thursday, struggling to a 77-68 win but coming up short as a 16-point favorite. Since suffering a stunning 14-point loss to Western Kentucky on Nov. 13, Rick Pitino’s troops have won five in a row (2-1 ATS) by an average margin of 25 ppg. Louisville’s defense has been tremendous to this point, ranking 22nd in the nation in points allowed (57.6 ppg), 11th in field-goal defense (35.8 percent) and second in three-point defense (24.5 percent). Meanwhile, Minnesota is giving up 62.1 ppg on 39.2 percent shooting (32.7 percent from three-point range). However, the Gophers make 49 percent of their shots (73.6 ppg), while Louisville connects at a 44.5 percent rate (79.6 ppg)
The Golden Gophers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral-site games, while Louisville is 0-4 ATS in its last four against the Big Ten, but 21-9-1 ATS in its last 31 overall and 6-2 ATS in its last eight on Saturday.
For Minnesota, the under is on streaks of 16-5 overall in lined games, 37-14 on Saturdays, 5-2 in non-conference play, 4-0 at neutral sites and 8-2 after a SU win. Also, Louisville is on under stretches of 6-1 overall, 4-1-1 at neutral venues, 35-17-1 in non-conference games and 5-0 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE and UNDER
(22) Davidson (8-1, 4-3 ATS) vs. (13) Purdue (8-2, 4-4 ATS) (at Indianapolis)
Player-of-the-Year candidate Stephen Curry takes his sharp-shooting act to Conseco Fieldhouse as he leads Davidson in a Top 25 non-conference clash against Purdue. Davidson has been involved in three consecutive nail-biters, but won them all, including last Saturday’s 100-95 victory over Chattanooga, falling way short as a 23-point home favorite. Curry went 11-for-22 from the field (5-for-11 from 3-point range) and finished with 41 points, the third time this season he’s netted more than 40. Curry leads the nation in scoring at 32 points per game, despite the fact he was held scoreless once this season. Purdue also has been off since last Saturday, when it pounded Indiana State 76-62, coming up short as a 25-point home favorite. Since consecutive losses to ranked foes Oklahoma (87-82 in overtime in New York) and Duke (76-60 at home), the Boilermakers have won three in a row by margins of 48, 29 and 24 points, going 1-1 ATS in lined games. Purdue has followed up an 18-4-1 ATS run by going 1-4 ATS in its last five lined outings. With Curry leading the way, Davidson ranks seventh in the nation in scoring at 86.1 ppg, while making 44.8 percent of its shots. However, the Boilermakers are allowing just 57 ppg on 34.7 percent shooting, figures that rank 17th and fifth in the nation, respectively. Davidson, which has alternated spread-covers in its last six games, is on a bunch of positive ATS runs, including: 48-22-1 overall, 44-18 away from home, 11-2 in non-conference play, 4-0 against the Big Ten, 46-19-1 after a SU win and 40-19-2 on Saturdays. On the flip side, in addition to its 1-4 ATS rut overall, Purdue is in pointspread funks of 0-4 at home and 1-4 against winning teams, but the Boilers have cashed in seven of their last nine on Saturdays. The over is 5-1 in Davidson’s last six road games, but the under is 4-1 in its last five oveall and 7-2 in its last nine on Saturdays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DAVIDSON
(2) Connecticut (9-0, 3-2 ATS) vs. (8) Gonzaga (7-1, 5-2 ATS) (at Seattle)
Less than a week after its perfect season came to an end, Gonzaga will attempt to hand second-ranked UConn its first setback as the Bulldogs make the short trip from Spokane to Seattle for what is technically a neutral-site contest at Key Arena. Gonzaga, playing its sixth straight game on a road or neutral court, went to Arizona as a six-point road chalk Sunday but fell 69-64. It marked the first time all year that the Bulldogs failed to score at least 70 points, and was just the third time they had given up more than 59. However, Mark Few’s team bounced back from the Arizona loss with Thursday’s 84-42 home rout of Texas Southern in a non-lined contest. As usual, UConn has fattened up on cupcakes early in the season, including four straight wins over the likes of Bryant (88-58), Delaware State (79-49), Buffalo (68-64) and Stony Brook (91-57). Only the Buffalo victory was on the betting board, and the Huskies failed to cash as a 15-point road favorite in that one. Gonzaga played UConn on a neutral court in Boston last December and came away with an 85-82 victory, covering as a 5½-point underdog. The Bulldogs are 3-0 ATS in three meetings against the Huskies since 1999, all as an underdog.
For the season, Gonzaga is averaging 78 points per game on 48.1 percent shooting and allowing 57.7 ppg on 35.2 percent shooting, the latter number good for ninth-best in the country. Meanwhile, UConn is 15th in the nation in scoring (83 ppg) and seventh in field-goal percentage (51.1), and Jim Calhoun’s troops give up just 60 ppg on 37.1 percent shooting.
UConn is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games against winning teams and 5-2 ATS in its last seven on Saturday, but otherwise the Huskies are in pointspread dips of 5-13 in lined non-conference games, 4-17 at neutral sites, 1-4 against the West Coast Conference and 0-6 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points. Gonzaga is on ATS tears of 5-2 overall (all in non-conference), 21-7 on Saturdays, 4-0 against the Big East and 6-2 after a win of more than 20 points. The Huskies are on “over” stretches of 8-2 overall in lined contests, 13-3 at neutral sites and 5-1 after a SU win. The over is also 20-6 in Gonzaga’s last 26 games on Saturday, but otherwise the Zags are on “under” spurts of 6-1 overall and 4-0 at neutral venues.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GONZAGA and OVER
(11) Syracuse (10-1, 3-5 ATS) at (23) Memphis (6-2, 4-4 ATS)
Syracuse looks for its third victory of the season against a ranked opponent when it heads to the FedEx Forum in Memphis for a battle with the Tigers. The Orange opened the season with nine straight wins, including back-to-back victories over 18th-ranked Florida (89-83) and 22nd-ranked Kansas (89-81). However, their unbeaten season ended in brutal buzzer-beating fashion Monday, as Cleveland State hit a 60-foot shot as time expired to steal a 72-69 win at the Carrier Dome as a 10½-point road underdog. Jim Boeheim’s squad rebounded from that setback with Wednesday’s 82-60 rout of Canisius, but failed to cover as a 23-point home favorite, dropping to 1-4 ATS in its last five lined games.
Memphis also bounced back from a tough loss on Wednesday, downing Arkansas-Little Rock 59-51 at home but coming nowhere close to covering the 22-point spread. Last Saturday, the Tigers went to Georgetown and took the 19th-ranked Hoyas to overtime before falling 79-70 as a six-point road underdog. These teams last met at Madison Square Garden in November 2004, with the Orange rolling to a 77-62 victory as a 2½-point favorite. Two years earlier, Memphis beat Syracuse 70-63 as a 4½-point home ‘dog. Syracuse has scored at least 69 points in every game this year, producing 79 or more eight times, and the Orange rank 20th in scoring offense (82 ppg) and 17th in field-goal offense (49.7 ppg). Meanwhile, the Tigers have scored 80 points or more five times, but have also been held to 58 and 59 points in two of their contests. John Calipari’s squad is netting 78 ppg on just 42.1 percent shooting, including a woeful 27.3 percent from 3-point land. Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Saturday, but 0-8 ATS in its last eight following a victory of more than 20 points. Meanwhile, Memphis 4-1 ATS in its last five on Saturday, but 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning record.
The over is on streaks of 4-1 for Syracuse on Saturday, 5-2 for Syracuse following a victory, 5-1 for Memphis on Saturday and 8-0 for Memphis when facing Big East opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Baltimore (9-5, 10-4 ATS) at Dallas (9-5, 7-7 ATS)
Two teams aiming to stay entrenched in the playoff race square off in a non-conference clash as the Cowboys host the Ravens in what will likely be the last game at Texas Stadium. Dallas rode its defense to a 20-8 victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Giants as a three-point home chalk Sunday night, winning and cashing for the fourth time in five weeks. QB Tony Romo (20 of 30, 244 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was sharp, the offense didn’t commit a turnover and the defense sacked New York QB Eli Manning eight times, forcing two turnovers and allowing just 218 total yards. The Cowboys control their own destiny for a wild-card berth and can earn their third straight postseason berth by sweeping their final two games. Baltimore suffered a controversial 13-9 loss to Pittsburgh as a three-point home favorite Sunday, giving up a 92-yard touchdown drive in the final minutes, with the Steelers scoring the game’s only touchdown with 43 seconds left on a play that was reversed by replay. The Ravens had their three-game SU and ATS winning streak halted in the defeat, which gave Pittsburgh the NFC North title and dropped Baltimore into the wild-card race. Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco (11 of 28, 115 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) had a dismal day versus Pittsburgh’s top-ranked defense, accounting for both of his team’s turnovers. Baltimore netted just 202 total yards, while allowing 311 – nearly a third of which came on the Steelers’ game-winning TD drive. The SU winner is now on a 23-2 ATS roll in the Ravens’ last 25 games, including 13-1 ATS this season. The winner is also 9-0 ATS in Dallas’ last nine games and 12-2 ATS in its 14 contests this year. These teams have met just twice this decade, with Baltimore going 2-0 SU and ATS, winning by a combined score of 57-10. Most recently, the Ravens rolled 30-10 laying 7½ points at home in 2004.
This contest features two of the NFL’s top stop units. Baltimore is second in the league in total defense (257.5 ypg) and third in scoring defense (15.2 ppg), and Dallas is seventh in total defense (287.0 ypg) and 12th in scoring defense (20.6 ppg). Over their last four games, the Ravens have given up a total of three touchdowns and 33 points, while the Cowboys have surrendered just 37 points and two touchdowns in their last three contests, with one of the TDs the result of an interception returned for a score. Despite Sunday’s victory over the Giants, the Cowboys remain on a 1-7 ATS slide in December, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 4-0 at home and 5-0 as a favorite, and they are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a non-conference chalk. The Ravens are on ATS skids of 0-4 on Saturdays and 5-12 after a SU loss, but they carry positive pointspread trends of 7-2 overall, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 after an ATS setback. The under for Dallas is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-0 in December and 4-1 against winning teams. On the flip side, the over for Baltimore is on stretches of 6-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the highway and 8-2-1 as a road underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
EAGLEBANK BOWL
Navy (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Wake Forest (7-5, 5-7 ATS) (at Washington, D.C.)
Wake Forest gets a chance to avenge its first loss of the season when it takes on the Midshipmen in the inaugural EagleBank Bowl at RFK Stadium.
These squads met back on Sept. 27 in Winston-Salem, N.C., with Navy pulling off a 24-17 upset win as a 17-point road ‘dog, the Middies first victory over a ranked team in 33 years. Wake Forest had six turnovers in the game, with QB Riley Skinner throwing four interceptions, including a fourth-quarter pick that sealed the Deacons’ fate. Navy outrushed Wake Forest, 292-43. The victory over Wake Forest ignited the Middies, who went on to win five of their final seven (4-3 ATS). That included back-to-back shutouts to close the season – a 16-0 win at Northern Illinois as a three-point underdog and a 34-0 whitewash of archrival Army as a 10½-point chalk. Navy led the nation in rushing at 298.3 yards per contest and Shun White was third in the country averaging 8.7 yards per carry en route to 1,021 rushing yards and eight TDs in 12 games. Bruising FB Eric Kettani ran for 932 yards and four TDs, including a career-high 175 yards against Wake Forest back in September. Beginning with loss to Navy, the Demon Deacons lost five of their last nine games (3-6 ATS) and finished tied for third in the ACC’s Atlantic Division. Wake Forest, which closed the regular season with a 23-10 non-conference win over Vanderbilt as a four-point home favorite on Nov. 29, ranked 103rd in total offense, averaging just 315.8 yards per game, and they have scored just 20 TDs in 41 trips inside the red zone. Meanwhile, after throwing four INTs against Navy, Skinner threw six TDs and just three picks in his final eight games.
This is Navy’s sixth-consecutive bowl appearance, a school record, going 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five, including four consecutive spread-covers. The Demon Deacons are in their fourth straight bowl game (2-1 SU and ATS in the previous three). This will be the third meeting between these squads in the last 14 months, including Wake Forest’s 44-24 victory as a three-point road favorite back on Oct. 20, 2007. The Demon Deacons have won four of the last five meetings going back to 1998, going 3-2 ATS. The Middies are on ATS runs of 22-8 away from home, 4-0 in bowl games, 4-0 in December, 4-1 in neutral-site games, 5-2 in non-conference contests and 7-3 against ACC foes. Wake Forest is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games against winning teams and 4-0 ATS in its last four December contests, but the Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four after a spread-cover. Navy has stayed under the total in four of its last five overall, but otherwise it’s all “over” streaks for the Middies, including 8-1-1 against ACC teams, 4-0 in bowl games, 9-4 in neutral-site games and 7-2 when coming off a spread-cover. The Demon Deacons are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 7-2 overall, 17-6-1 in non-conference games, 4-0 in December, 4-0 in bowl games and 4-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, these teams totaled just 41 points in their September meeting, staying well under the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NEW MEXICO BOWL
Fresno State (7-5, 2-10 ATS) vs. Colorado State (6-6, 6-5 ATS) (at Albuquerque, N.M)
Fresno State guns for its fifth bowl victory in the last seven seasons when it battles the Rams at University Stadium in Albuquerque. The Bulldogs qualified for this contest despite losing three of their final five games (1-4 ATS), including getting destroyed 61-10 at Boise State in the season finale Nov. 28, falling way short as a 21½-point road ‘dog as they got outgained by 200 yards. Senior QB Tom Brandstater threw for 2,478 yards and 17 TDs this season, but also tossed 11 INTs. The Bulldogs averaged 176.8 rushing ypg, but RB Anthony Harden had just 11 yards on nine carries in Boise. Also, Fresno’s defense was a weak link all season, giving up 30.3 points and 393.6 total yards per game (197.4 rushing ypg).
First-year Colorado State coach Steve Fairchild guided the Rams to their first bowl berth since 2005. They won their final two games to become bowl eligible, beating New Mexico 20-6 as three-point home favorites on Nov. 15, then going to Wyoming and routing the archrival Cowboys 31-20 as a 1½-point road chalk the following week. Like Fresno, CSU has struggled in a big way on defense, allowing 29.8 points and 410.2 total yards per game (189.4 rushing ypg). These teams squared off in 2006 with Colorado State prevailing 35-23 as a 14-point road-dog in Fresno. They have split four meetings since 2001, but the Rams are 3-1 ATS during this stretch. While Colorado State hasn’t been to a bowl since beating Navy 51-30 in the 2005 Poinsettia Bowl, Fresno State is playing its ninth bowl game in the last 10 years, and the ‘Dogs are 10-7 SU and 6-6 ATS all-time in the postseason, including 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS under coach Pat Hill. The underdog is a perfect 8-0 ATS in Fresno’s last eight bowl contests, with the Bulldogs being the favorite in three of those contests. Fresno State is 11-25 ATS over the last three full seasons, including 1-9 ATS in the last 10 this year. Additionally, the Bulldogs mired in ATS slumps of 7-19 as a favorite, 4-9 in non-conference games, 1-5 against Mountain West Conference squads and 16-35-1 following a non-cover. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four December contests and 12-18 ATS as an underdog since 2004, including 0-4 SU and ATS as a road pup this season. On the bright side, Colorado State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 on grass and 5-1 ATS in its last six after a straight-up win. For Fresno, the over is on streaks of 5-2 in bowl games, 6-2 in non-conference contests and 5-2-1 with the Bulldogs as a favorite. The over is 5-1 in Colorado State’s last six overall, but otherwise the Rams are on under runs of 8-3 as an underdog, 11-4 after a straight-up win and 10-4-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: COLORADO STATE
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
Memphis (6-6, 5-6 ATS) vs. South Florida (7-5, 4-7 ATS) (at St. Petersburg, Fla.)
South Florida makes the short trek from its Tampa Bay campus to Tropicana Field and will have a virtual home game when it battles Memphis in the inaugural St. Petersburg Bowl. South Florida opened the season with five straight wins and climbed to No. 10 in the rankings before losing five of its last seven (3-4 ATS). The Bulls struggled offensively, failing to score more than 20 points in any of their last five, with senior QB Matt Grothe being the biggest culprit as the threw just three TD passes and 11 INTs during this stretch. South Florida averaged 14.8 points in its five losses and 34.9 points in its seven wins. Memphis won three of its last four SU and ATS to get into the postseason, including a 45-6 rout over Tulane as a 14½-point favorite. Junior RB Curtis Steele rushed for 1,175 yards and seven TDs to become the school’s first 1,000-yard rusher in three years. None of the Tigers’ six victories came against an opponent that finished with a winning record, and Memphis averaged 34.2 points in its six wins and just 22.3 points in its six defeats. South Florida is in its fourth straight bowl game, going 1-2 SU and ATS in the previous three, including last season’s embarrassing 56-21 loss to Oregon in the Sun Bowl as a 5½-point favorite. Memphis has won three of its five bowl games all-time, including a 44-27 loss to Florida Atlantic in last year’s New Orleans Bowl as a 3½-point ‘dog. These two were regular competitors earlier this decade, splitting four games both SU and ATS between 2001 and 2004.
Memphis is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 as a double-digit ‘dog, but 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games and 8-19-1 ATS in its last 28 after a SU win. South Florida is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games, but the Bulls have cashed in four of their last five against Conference USA foes. For Memphis, the over is on streaks 7-3-1 in non-conference games and 5-2 following a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Bulls have gone over the posted number in six of their last seven non-conference games, but the under is 4-1 in their last five overall and 4-1 in their last five December games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
LAS VEGAS BOWL
(17) BYU (10-2, 3-8 ATS) vs. Arizona (7-5 SU and ATS) (at Las Vegas)
The Cougars return to the Las Vegas Bowl for the fourth consecutive year, this time facing the Wildcats, who are making their first postseason appearance in a decade. BYU was ranked as high as No. 8 in the country before a 32-17 loss to unranked TCU on Oct. 16, failing as a 1½-point road ‘dog. Despite that setback, the Cougars were still on track to win at least a share of the Mountain West Conference crown, but that goal got squashed in a season-ending 48-24 loss to then-No. 8 Utah on Nov. 22, failing to cash as 6½-point road underdogs to end the season in a 1-7 ATS funk. QB Max Hall threw a career-high five INTs and no TDs in the loss to the rival Utes. Arizona outscored archrival Arizona State 24-0 in the second half on Dec. 6, rolling to a 31-10 victory as an 11-point home favorite to wrap up its first winning season since 1998, which was the last time the Wildcats earned a bowl berth. Arizona outgained the Sun Devils by 227 yards in halting a two-game SU and a three-game ATS slide.
The Cougars have won their last two bowl games inside Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas. In 2006, they clobbered Oregon 38-8 as a three-point favorite, then last year BYU blocked a field goal to secure a 17-16 win over UCLA, falling short as six-point favorites. Meanwhile, Arizona beat Nebraska 23-20 in the 1998 Holiday Bowl in its most recent postseason contest. These squads have met each of the last two regular seasons, with the host winning both and BYU going 2-0 ATS. Last year, the Cougars rolled 20-7 as a 3½-point favorite, with both QBs playing well, as Hall threw for 288 yards and two TDs and Tuitama passed for 216 yards and one score. Both teams feature high-powered offenses. Arizona ranks 16th in the nation in scoring offense (37.1 ppg) and averages 401.3 total ypg, as QB Willie Tuitama finished second in the Pac-10 in passing yards (2,763), TDs (21) and QB rating (143.0). The Cougars put up 35.3 ppg and 446 total ypg, and Hall (69.6 percent completion rate, 3,627 yards, 34 TDs, 13 INTs) led a passing attack that rates seventh in the nation (308.9 ypg). The Cougars have gotten the cash in six of their last eight after a straight-up loss, and they’re 5-1 SU in their last six games against Pac-10 foes (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS this year). Otherwise, BYU is on negative ATS streaks of 1-7 overall, 1-5 on the road this year, 1-5 in non-conference games, 0-4 in non-conference road games and 1-5 after a non-cover. Arizona has gone 0-4 ATS in its last four against Mountain West squads, 11-29 ATS in its last 40 as a favorite and 1-4 ATS on the highway this season, but the Wildcats are on positive pointspread streaks of 11-5 overall and 6-2 against teams with a winning record. The under is 4-1 in BYU’s last five bowl games and 5-2 in its last seven against Pac-10 squads. The Wildcats are on “under” runs that include 4-0 in December games, 11-5 after a spread-cover and 20-8 on grass. Also, both games between these schools the last two seasons have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(6) Duke (9-1, 5-4 ATS) vs. (7) Xavier (9-0, 4-4 ATS) (at East Rutherford, N.J.)
The Izod Center in East Rutherford hosts a clash of Top 10 programs, as Xavier puts its unbeaten season on the line against Duke.
The Musketeers remained perfect with last Saturday’s 76-66 rout of rival Cincinnati, cashing as a 2½-point road favorite. Xavier is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in road/neutral-site games this season, and the Musketeers are allowing opponents to make just 35.7 percent of their shots, which is the 12th best field-goal defense in the nation. Duke bounced back from its first loss – a shocking 81-73 defeat at Michigan as a 10-point road favorite two weeks ago – with Wednesday’s 99-56 rout of North Carolina-Asheville in a non-lined home game. The Blue Devils are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road, and eight of their nine their wins have come by double digits. Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s squad ranks 11th in the nation in scoring at 83.4 points per game. These teams last met in the Elite Eight of the 2004 NCAA Tournament, with Duke eking out a 66-63 victory, but the Musketeers cashed as a 6½-point underdog. The Blue Devils have failed to cash in five straight games on Saturday and nine of their last 13 at neutral venues. Meanwhile, Xavier is on ATS runs of 28-9 at neutral sites and 4-1 against winning teams, but they’ve failed to cover in eight of their last 11 on Saturday. For Duke, the under is on runs of 11-4 overall (all in non-conference play), 8-1 at neutral sites, 4-1 versus Atlantic 10 foes and 6-1 coming off a victory of more than 20 points. Conversely, the Musketeers are on over stretches of 3-0 overall, 12-5 in non-conference action, 4-1 on Saturday and 5-2 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: XAVIER
(19) Michigan State (7-2, 3-4 ATS) vs. (5) Texas (9-1, 4-3 ATS) (at Houston)
Texas takes its six-game winning streak east to Houston for a non-conference clash with Michigan State at the Toyota Center.
Since knocking off then-No. 15 Villanova 67-58 as a two-point favorite at Madison Square Garden in New York, the Longhorns have slept-walked to victories over Division II foes Southwest Texas State (81-73) and Texas Southern (88-72) in non-lined home games. Texas has scored at least 67 points in all 10 of its games and is outscoring visitors by an average of 17 points per game (76-59). Michigan State has ripped off three consecutive blowout home victories since an embarrassing loss to top-ranked North Carolina, crushing Bradley 75-59 as a 15-point home favorite, Alcorn State 118-60 in a non-lined game and The Citadel 79-65 as a 28-point home chalk, the latter contest played on Wednesday. The Spartans are 3-1 away from home, but 1-2 ATS. These teams met each of the last two years, with Michigan State going 2-0 SU and ATS, winning 78-72 as a 4½-point road underdog in 2006 and 78-72 as a four-point home chalk in 2007. The SU winner is 4-0 ATS in the last four head-to-head battles going back to 1999. The Spartans are on ATS upticks of 4-0 versus the Big 12 and 4-1 after a non-cover, but they’re 0-5 ATS in their last five after a SU victory and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on Saturday. Meanwhile, Texas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven on Saturday, but 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Big Ten. The over is 7-1 in Michigan’ State’s last eight games against Big 12 foes and 7-3 in Texas’ last 10 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(9) Louisville (6-1, 4-2 ATS) vs. Minnesota (9-0, 4-2 ATS) (at Glendale, Ariz.)
Minnesota puts its unbeaten record on the line at University of Phoenix Stadium when it faces its first Top 25 opponent this year in ninth-ranked Louisville. The Golden Gophers have rolled to five straight double-digit wins, going 3-0 ATS in lined contests during this stretch. They’ve been idle since Dec. 10, when they pounded South Dakota State 74-60 in a non-lined home game. Tubby Smith’s squad has played just once away from Minneapolis this year, and they eked out a 72-71 victory at Colorado State, pushing as a one-point road favorite. The Cardinals faced Ole Miss in a neutral-site game in Cincinnati on Thursday, struggling to a 77-68 win but coming up short as a 16-point favorite. Since suffering a stunning 14-point loss to Western Kentucky on Nov. 13, Rick Pitino’s troops have won five in a row (2-1 ATS) by an average margin of 25 ppg. Louisville’s defense has been tremendous to this point, ranking 22nd in the nation in points allowed (57.6 ppg), 11th in field-goal defense (35.8 percent) and second in three-point defense (24.5 percent). Meanwhile, Minnesota is giving up 62.1 ppg on 39.2 percent shooting (32.7 percent from three-point range). However, the Gophers make 49 percent of their shots (73.6 ppg), while Louisville connects at a 44.5 percent rate (79.6 ppg)
The Golden Gophers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral-site games, while Louisville is 0-4 ATS in its last four against the Big Ten, but 21-9-1 ATS in its last 31 overall and 6-2 ATS in its last eight on Saturday.
For Minnesota, the under is on streaks of 16-5 overall in lined games, 37-14 on Saturdays, 5-2 in non-conference play, 4-0 at neutral sites and 8-2 after a SU win. Also, Louisville is on under stretches of 6-1 overall, 4-1-1 at neutral venues, 35-17-1 in non-conference games and 5-0 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE and UNDER
(22) Davidson (8-1, 4-3 ATS) vs. (13) Purdue (8-2, 4-4 ATS) (at Indianapolis)
Player-of-the-Year candidate Stephen Curry takes his sharp-shooting act to Conseco Fieldhouse as he leads Davidson in a Top 25 non-conference clash against Purdue. Davidson has been involved in three consecutive nail-biters, but won them all, including last Saturday’s 100-95 victory over Chattanooga, falling way short as a 23-point home favorite. Curry went 11-for-22 from the field (5-for-11 from 3-point range) and finished with 41 points, the third time this season he’s netted more than 40. Curry leads the nation in scoring at 32 points per game, despite the fact he was held scoreless once this season. Purdue also has been off since last Saturday, when it pounded Indiana State 76-62, coming up short as a 25-point home favorite. Since consecutive losses to ranked foes Oklahoma (87-82 in overtime in New York) and Duke (76-60 at home), the Boilermakers have won three in a row by margins of 48, 29 and 24 points, going 1-1 ATS in lined games. Purdue has followed up an 18-4-1 ATS run by going 1-4 ATS in its last five lined outings. With Curry leading the way, Davidson ranks seventh in the nation in scoring at 86.1 ppg, while making 44.8 percent of its shots. However, the Boilermakers are allowing just 57 ppg on 34.7 percent shooting, figures that rank 17th and fifth in the nation, respectively. Davidson, which has alternated spread-covers in its last six games, is on a bunch of positive ATS runs, including: 48-22-1 overall, 44-18 away from home, 11-2 in non-conference play, 4-0 against the Big Ten, 46-19-1 after a SU win and 40-19-2 on Saturdays. On the flip side, in addition to its 1-4 ATS rut overall, Purdue is in pointspread funks of 0-4 at home and 1-4 against winning teams, but the Boilers have cashed in seven of their last nine on Saturdays. The over is 5-1 in Davidson’s last six road games, but the under is 4-1 in its last five oveall and 7-2 in its last nine on Saturdays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DAVIDSON
(2) Connecticut (9-0, 3-2 ATS) vs. (8) Gonzaga (7-1, 5-2 ATS) (at Seattle)
Less than a week after its perfect season came to an end, Gonzaga will attempt to hand second-ranked UConn its first setback as the Bulldogs make the short trip from Spokane to Seattle for what is technically a neutral-site contest at Key Arena. Gonzaga, playing its sixth straight game on a road or neutral court, went to Arizona as a six-point road chalk Sunday but fell 69-64. It marked the first time all year that the Bulldogs failed to score at least 70 points, and was just the third time they had given up more than 59. However, Mark Few’s team bounced back from the Arizona loss with Thursday’s 84-42 home rout of Texas Southern in a non-lined contest. As usual, UConn has fattened up on cupcakes early in the season, including four straight wins over the likes of Bryant (88-58), Delaware State (79-49), Buffalo (68-64) and Stony Brook (91-57). Only the Buffalo victory was on the betting board, and the Huskies failed to cash as a 15-point road favorite in that one. Gonzaga played UConn on a neutral court in Boston last December and came away with an 85-82 victory, covering as a 5½-point underdog. The Bulldogs are 3-0 ATS in three meetings against the Huskies since 1999, all as an underdog.
For the season, Gonzaga is averaging 78 points per game on 48.1 percent shooting and allowing 57.7 ppg on 35.2 percent shooting, the latter number good for ninth-best in the country. Meanwhile, UConn is 15th in the nation in scoring (83 ppg) and seventh in field-goal percentage (51.1), and Jim Calhoun’s troops give up just 60 ppg on 37.1 percent shooting.
UConn is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games against winning teams and 5-2 ATS in its last seven on Saturday, but otherwise the Huskies are in pointspread dips of 5-13 in lined non-conference games, 4-17 at neutral sites, 1-4 against the West Coast Conference and 0-6 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points. Gonzaga is on ATS tears of 5-2 overall (all in non-conference), 21-7 on Saturdays, 4-0 against the Big East and 6-2 after a win of more than 20 points. The Huskies are on “over” stretches of 8-2 overall in lined contests, 13-3 at neutral sites and 5-1 after a SU win. The over is also 20-6 in Gonzaga’s last 26 games on Saturday, but otherwise the Zags are on “under” spurts of 6-1 overall and 4-0 at neutral venues.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GONZAGA and OVER
(11) Syracuse (10-1, 3-5 ATS) at (23) Memphis (6-2, 4-4 ATS)
Syracuse looks for its third victory of the season against a ranked opponent when it heads to the FedEx Forum in Memphis for a battle with the Tigers. The Orange opened the season with nine straight wins, including back-to-back victories over 18th-ranked Florida (89-83) and 22nd-ranked Kansas (89-81). However, their unbeaten season ended in brutal buzzer-beating fashion Monday, as Cleveland State hit a 60-foot shot as time expired to steal a 72-69 win at the Carrier Dome as a 10½-point road underdog. Jim Boeheim’s squad rebounded from that setback with Wednesday’s 82-60 rout of Canisius, but failed to cover as a 23-point home favorite, dropping to 1-4 ATS in its last five lined games.
Memphis also bounced back from a tough loss on Wednesday, downing Arkansas-Little Rock 59-51 at home but coming nowhere close to covering the 22-point spread. Last Saturday, the Tigers went to Georgetown and took the 19th-ranked Hoyas to overtime before falling 79-70 as a six-point road underdog. These teams last met at Madison Square Garden in November 2004, with the Orange rolling to a 77-62 victory as a 2½-point favorite. Two years earlier, Memphis beat Syracuse 70-63 as a 4½-point home ‘dog. Syracuse has scored at least 69 points in every game this year, producing 79 or more eight times, and the Orange rank 20th in scoring offense (82 ppg) and 17th in field-goal offense (49.7 ppg). Meanwhile, the Tigers have scored 80 points or more five times, but have also been held to 58 and 59 points in two of their contests. John Calipari’s squad is netting 78 ppg on just 42.1 percent shooting, including a woeful 27.3 percent from 3-point land. Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Saturday, but 0-8 ATS in its last eight following a victory of more than 20 points. Meanwhile, Memphis 4-1 ATS in its last five on Saturday, but 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning record.
The over is on streaks of 4-1 for Syracuse on Saturday, 5-2 for Syracuse following a victory, 5-1 for Memphis on Saturday and 8-0 for Memphis when facing Big East opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Jeff Benton
Saturday's winners ...
25 Dime: COWBOYS (minus the points vs. Ravens) ... NOTE: If this number is sitting at 4 1/2, I want you to buy the hook and only lay 4, which can be a key number in the NFL.
10 Dime: BYU (plus the points vs. Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl)
5 Dime: GONZAGA (minus the points vs. UConn in College Hoops)
Cowboys
I don’t want to take anything away from the Ravens, who have way overachieved this season after a dismal 2007 and who seem to be heading in the right direction now that they have a legitimate QB in Joe Flacco to go with their devastating defense. But Baltimore is way out of its league in this game at Dallas, which is just as good as the Ravens on defense and – with all due respect to Mr. Flacco – vastly superior on offense.
The Cowboys come into this game on a 4-1 SU and ATS run, and if not for some terrible fourth-quarter conservative play-calling – and one horrific throw by Tony Romo – Dallas would’ve won at Pittsburgh two weeks ago and would be on a 5-0 SU and ATS surge. Last week, the Cowboys manhandled the defending Super Bowl champion Giants 20-8 as a three-point home favorite, finishing with a 321-218 edge in total offense. The defense bludgeoned Eli Manning all night, sacking him eight times – and remember, New York has one of the best offensive lines in football – and picking him off twice. Manning needed 35 pass attempts to complete 18 throws for just 191 yards – which equates to 5.5 yards per pass attempt, pretty bad when 7 yards per attempt is considered average.
If you take away Romo’s pick-six vs. the Steelers and his safety last week against New York (which shouldn’t count against the defense’s stats), the Cowboys’ D has surrendered just one touchdown and four field goals in the last three games versus the Giants, Steelers and Seahawks. During this three-game stretch, Dallas also has allowed only 259.3 total yards per game, and over the last five games, the Cowboys have given up an average of just 13.8 ppg while outgaining all five opponents by 87, 104, 125, 51 and 103 yards.
Now, obviously, Baltimore’s defense has been impressive, too. The Ravens have allowed just three touchdowns and 33 total points in their last four games, going 3-1 SU and ATS. However, three of those were played at home, and the other was at the Bengals. Aside from beating Cincy and losing last week to Pittsburgh, the Ravens roughed up the Redskins (who are clearly on the decline) and the Eagles (the game where McNabb fell apart and got benched).
The last time the Ravens went on the road and faced a quality team? They got smoked 30-10 at the Giants on Nov. 16. In fact, Baltimore’s three toughest road games of the season – at Pittsburgh, at Indianapolis and at the Giants – were all losses. The offense produced a total of just 33 points and three touchdowns in those three defeats and the defense gave up 23, 31 and 30 points. Here’s what I’m getting at: While Baltimore’s 9-5 record is solid, it has lost its four toughest contests (including the Steelers twice), and in three of those, the Ravens’ defense got exposed.
Tonight, I think they get exposed again. For one thing, Romo is just the type of mobile QB that gives Baltimore the most trouble. Also, in speedy RB Tashard Choice, the Cowboys have a new explosive weapon, and he can be especially dangerous against a gambling, over-pursuing defense like Baltimore’s. Meanwhile, I just do not see Flacco and the Ravens’ offense moving the football on the Cowboys’ D, no way. The rookie has passed for more than 185 yards just once in his last six games, his QB rating is down to 76.9, he now has 12 INTs to go with 13 TD passes, and he’s averaging just 6.64 yards per pass attempt (by comparison, Romo is averaging 8.21 yards per attempt, and he has 24 TD passes and 11 INTs in only 11 games).
With last week’s win over the Giants, the Cowboys are now 6-1 at home this season, with their last three victories at Texas Stadium being double-digit blowouts by an average of 16.7 ppg. And with Romo under center, Dallas has won four straight at home by nine points or more. Meanwhile, the Ravens are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games when catching more than four points and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 as a road underdog in that same price range.
Bottom line: As long as Romo protects the football, this one should not even be close at all. In fact, with the way the Dallas D and Flacco are playing right now, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Cowboys’ defense outscores Baltimore’s offense. Lay the points.
BYU
Can somebody please explain this pointspread to me? Isn’t BYU 10-2 on the season, with victories over two Pac-10 schools (Washington on the road, UCLA at home)? Isn’t Arizona just 7-5, including an eight-point loss to Mountain West Conference foe New Mexico (a team BYU hammered 21-3)? Didn’t the Mountain West go 6-1 SU against the Pac-10 this year? Isn’t this BYU’s fourth straight trip to the Las Vegas Bowl, and Arizona’s first bowl appearance in a decade? Didn’t BYU handle Arizona rather easily last year, a 20-7 home win as a 3½-point favorite? And lastly, didn’t it snow like six inches in Las Vegas this week and aren’t temperatures in Sin City for this game tonight going to be in the 30s? Wouldn’t you think those conditions would favor a team from Utah (BYU) over a team from the desert (Arizona)?
Honestly, I can’t quite fathom how and why the Wildcats are favored in this football game. Yes, BYU’s two losses came against its two toughest opponents in Utah (48-28) and TCU (32-7). But Utah is ranked 7th in the nation and TCU is ranked 11th. Trust me, Arizona ain’t anywhere near as good as TCU or Utah. And not to make excuses, because there’s no excuse for the Cougars to lose those two games by a combined 45 points, but both of those contests were true road games. Tonight in Las Vegas, BYU will have a virtual home game. Not only are the familiar with the venue (playing UNLV there every other year, plus the three previous Vegas Bowl experiences), but there’s a massive Mormon/BYU population in Las Vegas (sounds odd, I know, but it’s a fact). The Cougars will have about a 4-1 edge in terms of fan support.
As for the Xs and Os on the field, sorry, but BYU is better. It has averaged 39.3 ppg in its 10 wins, scoring at least 34 points in eight of those contests. And while the Cougars’ defense leaked late in the season (24 points or more allowed in five of their last six), they did have a four-game stretch when they allowed just 17 total points, including consecutive shutouts over UCLA (59-0) and Wyoming (44-0). And while I do respect the Wildcats’ offense (37 ppg average), it’s not exactly unstoppable, as Oregon State (17 points), USC (10) and Stanford (23) all contained Arizona.
In the end, I’ll side with the team that has the much better record, more bowl experience, a big crowd advantage, a better QB (Max Hall is superior to Willie Tuitama), faced better competition and is 6-1 in its last seven games versus the Pac-10. Take the points with BYU.
Gonzaga
I love Gonzaga for no other reason than the fact Mark Few takes the same approach to his non-conference schedule as Fresno State football coach Pat Hill does, that being “We’ll play anyone, anywhere, anytime.” Already this year, the Zags have played neutral-site games against Oklahoma State, Maryland, Tennessee and Indiana, as well as road games at Washington State and Arizona – all in succession! And up until Sunday’s 69-64 loss at Arizona, Gonzaga was undefeated (and you can certainly blame the road-weary Zags for running out of gas against Arizona).
On the flip side, you’ve got UConn’s Jim Calhoun, who every single year schedules creampuff after creampuff prior to the start of the grueling Big East campaign. This season has been no exception, as the Huskies’ lineup of opponents includes Western Carolina, Hartford, La Salle, Bryant, Delaware State, Buffalo and Stony Brook. Now, the Huskies do own double-digit neutral-site wins over Miami, Florida and Wisconsin, and while they get credit for that, the fact is that Wisconsin is in a down cycle this season and the Hurricanes in my opinion are wildly overrated. Also, those two impressive wins are kind of offset by the fact that UConn struggled to beat La Salle 89-81 (which is 4-4 on the season) and barely held off Buffalo 68-64 in its only true road game.
The point is that, because of its grueling non-conference schedule, I absolutely believe that Gonzaga – which is a bona fide Final Four contender – is MUCH more prepared to face a quality opponent like UConn. On the other hand, the Huskies today are going to face by far the best team they’ve seen thus far, and while they’re a talented squad with big man Hasheem Thabeet leading the way, I seriously doubt they’re ready for what’s about to hit them. Just as they weren’t ready for Gonzaga last year when the Bulldogs beat UConn 85-82 as a 5½-point underdog on a neutral floor in Boston.
Also, even though this is also technically a neutral-site game, that’s really not the case. Gonzaga will be trekking from Spokane, Washington, to Seattle and will absolutely have the home-court edge. And while Gonzaga has cashed in four straight games against the Big East, the Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams from the West Coast Conference (including last year’s NCAA Tournament opening-round upset loss to San Diego). UConn also is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 neutral-site games and 5-13 ATS in its last 18 non-conference contests. There’s a reason the Zags are favored today: They’re a better all-around team, and they’ll take care of business against UConn for the second consecutive year.
Terms & Conditions | Privacy PolicyCopyright © 2008 Sportsinfo.com All Rights Reserved.
Saturday's winners ...
25 Dime: COWBOYS (minus the points vs. Ravens) ... NOTE: If this number is sitting at 4 1/2, I want you to buy the hook and only lay 4, which can be a key number in the NFL.
10 Dime: BYU (plus the points vs. Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl)
5 Dime: GONZAGA (minus the points vs. UConn in College Hoops)
Cowboys
I don’t want to take anything away from the Ravens, who have way overachieved this season after a dismal 2007 and who seem to be heading in the right direction now that they have a legitimate QB in Joe Flacco to go with their devastating defense. But Baltimore is way out of its league in this game at Dallas, which is just as good as the Ravens on defense and – with all due respect to Mr. Flacco – vastly superior on offense.
The Cowboys come into this game on a 4-1 SU and ATS run, and if not for some terrible fourth-quarter conservative play-calling – and one horrific throw by Tony Romo – Dallas would’ve won at Pittsburgh two weeks ago and would be on a 5-0 SU and ATS surge. Last week, the Cowboys manhandled the defending Super Bowl champion Giants 20-8 as a three-point home favorite, finishing with a 321-218 edge in total offense. The defense bludgeoned Eli Manning all night, sacking him eight times – and remember, New York has one of the best offensive lines in football – and picking him off twice. Manning needed 35 pass attempts to complete 18 throws for just 191 yards – which equates to 5.5 yards per pass attempt, pretty bad when 7 yards per attempt is considered average.
If you take away Romo’s pick-six vs. the Steelers and his safety last week against New York (which shouldn’t count against the defense’s stats), the Cowboys’ D has surrendered just one touchdown and four field goals in the last three games versus the Giants, Steelers and Seahawks. During this three-game stretch, Dallas also has allowed only 259.3 total yards per game, and over the last five games, the Cowboys have given up an average of just 13.8 ppg while outgaining all five opponents by 87, 104, 125, 51 and 103 yards.
Now, obviously, Baltimore’s defense has been impressive, too. The Ravens have allowed just three touchdowns and 33 total points in their last four games, going 3-1 SU and ATS. However, three of those were played at home, and the other was at the Bengals. Aside from beating Cincy and losing last week to Pittsburgh, the Ravens roughed up the Redskins (who are clearly on the decline) and the Eagles (the game where McNabb fell apart and got benched).
The last time the Ravens went on the road and faced a quality team? They got smoked 30-10 at the Giants on Nov. 16. In fact, Baltimore’s three toughest road games of the season – at Pittsburgh, at Indianapolis and at the Giants – were all losses. The offense produced a total of just 33 points and three touchdowns in those three defeats and the defense gave up 23, 31 and 30 points. Here’s what I’m getting at: While Baltimore’s 9-5 record is solid, it has lost its four toughest contests (including the Steelers twice), and in three of those, the Ravens’ defense got exposed.
Tonight, I think they get exposed again. For one thing, Romo is just the type of mobile QB that gives Baltimore the most trouble. Also, in speedy RB Tashard Choice, the Cowboys have a new explosive weapon, and he can be especially dangerous against a gambling, over-pursuing defense like Baltimore’s. Meanwhile, I just do not see Flacco and the Ravens’ offense moving the football on the Cowboys’ D, no way. The rookie has passed for more than 185 yards just once in his last six games, his QB rating is down to 76.9, he now has 12 INTs to go with 13 TD passes, and he’s averaging just 6.64 yards per pass attempt (by comparison, Romo is averaging 8.21 yards per attempt, and he has 24 TD passes and 11 INTs in only 11 games).
With last week’s win over the Giants, the Cowboys are now 6-1 at home this season, with their last three victories at Texas Stadium being double-digit blowouts by an average of 16.7 ppg. And with Romo under center, Dallas has won four straight at home by nine points or more. Meanwhile, the Ravens are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games when catching more than four points and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 as a road underdog in that same price range.
Bottom line: As long as Romo protects the football, this one should not even be close at all. In fact, with the way the Dallas D and Flacco are playing right now, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Cowboys’ defense outscores Baltimore’s offense. Lay the points.
BYU
Can somebody please explain this pointspread to me? Isn’t BYU 10-2 on the season, with victories over two Pac-10 schools (Washington on the road, UCLA at home)? Isn’t Arizona just 7-5, including an eight-point loss to Mountain West Conference foe New Mexico (a team BYU hammered 21-3)? Didn’t the Mountain West go 6-1 SU against the Pac-10 this year? Isn’t this BYU’s fourth straight trip to the Las Vegas Bowl, and Arizona’s first bowl appearance in a decade? Didn’t BYU handle Arizona rather easily last year, a 20-7 home win as a 3½-point favorite? And lastly, didn’t it snow like six inches in Las Vegas this week and aren’t temperatures in Sin City for this game tonight going to be in the 30s? Wouldn’t you think those conditions would favor a team from Utah (BYU) over a team from the desert (Arizona)?
Honestly, I can’t quite fathom how and why the Wildcats are favored in this football game. Yes, BYU’s two losses came against its two toughest opponents in Utah (48-28) and TCU (32-7). But Utah is ranked 7th in the nation and TCU is ranked 11th. Trust me, Arizona ain’t anywhere near as good as TCU or Utah. And not to make excuses, because there’s no excuse for the Cougars to lose those two games by a combined 45 points, but both of those contests were true road games. Tonight in Las Vegas, BYU will have a virtual home game. Not only are the familiar with the venue (playing UNLV there every other year, plus the three previous Vegas Bowl experiences), but there’s a massive Mormon/BYU population in Las Vegas (sounds odd, I know, but it’s a fact). The Cougars will have about a 4-1 edge in terms of fan support.
As for the Xs and Os on the field, sorry, but BYU is better. It has averaged 39.3 ppg in its 10 wins, scoring at least 34 points in eight of those contests. And while the Cougars’ defense leaked late in the season (24 points or more allowed in five of their last six), they did have a four-game stretch when they allowed just 17 total points, including consecutive shutouts over UCLA (59-0) and Wyoming (44-0). And while I do respect the Wildcats’ offense (37 ppg average), it’s not exactly unstoppable, as Oregon State (17 points), USC (10) and Stanford (23) all contained Arizona.
In the end, I’ll side with the team that has the much better record, more bowl experience, a big crowd advantage, a better QB (Max Hall is superior to Willie Tuitama), faced better competition and is 6-1 in its last seven games versus the Pac-10. Take the points with BYU.
Gonzaga
I love Gonzaga for no other reason than the fact Mark Few takes the same approach to his non-conference schedule as Fresno State football coach Pat Hill does, that being “We’ll play anyone, anywhere, anytime.” Already this year, the Zags have played neutral-site games against Oklahoma State, Maryland, Tennessee and Indiana, as well as road games at Washington State and Arizona – all in succession! And up until Sunday’s 69-64 loss at Arizona, Gonzaga was undefeated (and you can certainly blame the road-weary Zags for running out of gas against Arizona).
On the flip side, you’ve got UConn’s Jim Calhoun, who every single year schedules creampuff after creampuff prior to the start of the grueling Big East campaign. This season has been no exception, as the Huskies’ lineup of opponents includes Western Carolina, Hartford, La Salle, Bryant, Delaware State, Buffalo and Stony Brook. Now, the Huskies do own double-digit neutral-site wins over Miami, Florida and Wisconsin, and while they get credit for that, the fact is that Wisconsin is in a down cycle this season and the Hurricanes in my opinion are wildly overrated. Also, those two impressive wins are kind of offset by the fact that UConn struggled to beat La Salle 89-81 (which is 4-4 on the season) and barely held off Buffalo 68-64 in its only true road game.
The point is that, because of its grueling non-conference schedule, I absolutely believe that Gonzaga – which is a bona fide Final Four contender – is MUCH more prepared to face a quality opponent like UConn. On the other hand, the Huskies today are going to face by far the best team they’ve seen thus far, and while they’re a talented squad with big man Hasheem Thabeet leading the way, I seriously doubt they’re ready for what’s about to hit them. Just as they weren’t ready for Gonzaga last year when the Bulldogs beat UConn 85-82 as a 5½-point underdog on a neutral floor in Boston.
Also, even though this is also technically a neutral-site game, that’s really not the case. Gonzaga will be trekking from Spokane, Washington, to Seattle and will absolutely have the home-court edge. And while Gonzaga has cashed in four straight games against the Big East, the Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams from the West Coast Conference (including last year’s NCAA Tournament opening-round upset loss to San Diego). UConn also is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 neutral-site games and 5-13 ATS in its last 18 non-conference contests. There’s a reason the Zags are favored today: They’re a better all-around team, and they’ll take care of business against UConn for the second consecutive year.
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Added
NFL: Dallas (HUGE)
NBA: Milwaukee (HUGE)
GL today friends!:toast:
821 Davidson (HUGE)
NFL: Dallas (HUGE)
NBA: Milwaukee (HUGE)
GL today friends!:toast:
My friend bought this guy's Bowl package. He's been really good on College football this year.
Thank you for purchasing The Booooj’s Bowl Bonanza package. Let’s kick this off with a 4-0 start. Picks will be available on the website by 10am on the day of the game. Good luck to all.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
></o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
EagleBank Bowl<o></o>
RFK Stadium, Washington DC<o></o>
5 units on Wake Forest -3 over Navy<o></o>
Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Navy (8-4)- Navy stopped Wake Forest 24-17, in September behind 175 yards rushing from Eric Kettani and 6 forced turnovers by their defense. The Deacons will have revenge on their mind in the inaugural Eagle Bank Bowl and you can expect QB Riley Skinner to be much better than in the first meeting. Wake will look to establish the run early to keep Navy’s nation leading rushing attack off the field and will look to exploit a suspect Navy secondary with the play action passing game. Navy will keep it close early, but in the end look for Wake Forest’s better talent to come through. Wake Forest by 7-10.<o></o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
New Mexico Bowl<o></o>
University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico<o></o>
3 units on Colorado St. +3 over Fresno t.<o></o>
Colorado St. (6-6) vs. Fresno St. (7-5)- Fresno St. has had what can only characterized as a disappointing season plagued with inconsistency after coming into the season with expectations of a WAC championship. Injuries are largely to blame for the Bulldogs problems this season, but they won’t be getting much healthier for this game. Colorado St. comes in playing it’s best football of the season under first year head coach Steve Fairchild. Look for Gartrell Johnson to have a big game running the ball and the Rams to spring the upset. Colorado St. by 3.<o></o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl<o></o>
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida<o></o>
10 units on South Florida -11.5 over Memphis<o></o>
Memphis (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5)-South Florida appears to have all the edges in this game starting with their play making QB Matt Grothe. Look for Grothe to make big plays through the air and with his feet, and if he can avoid making multiple turnovers, this game shouldn’t be close. Memphis will have a hard time handling standout defensive end George Selvie, who will be in the Tiger’s backfield all game long. In the end Memphis won’t be able to keep up with the Bulls of USF. South Florida by 21-24.<o></o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl<o></o>
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada<o></o>
5 units on Arizona -3 over BYU<o></o>
(16)Brigham Young(10-2) vs. Arizona(7-5)-In what should easily be the best game of the day, two high flying offenses collide led by talented QB’s. BYU may come into the game a little disinterested by making their fourth straight appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl and if they do it will cost them, as Arizona will certainly be fired up, making the schools first post-season appearance in 10 years. Max Hall should be able to lead the Cougars offense to some points against Arizona’s defense, but the question will be if BYU’s defense can slow down Willie Tuitama and the Arizona offense. In the end the combination of Tuitama and Tight End Rob Gronkowski will be too much for the BYU defense to handle. Arizona by 7-10.<o></o>
Thank you for purchasing The Booooj’s Bowl Bonanza package. Let’s kick this off with a 4-0 start. Picks will be available on the website by 10am on the day of the game. Good luck to all.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
> </o><o
> </o>EagleBank Bowl<o
></o>RFK Stadium, Washington DC<o
></o>5 units on Wake Forest -3 over Navy<o
></o>Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Navy (8-4)- Navy stopped Wake Forest 24-17, in September behind 175 yards rushing from Eric Kettani and 6 forced turnovers by their defense. The Deacons will have revenge on their mind in the inaugural Eagle Bank Bowl and you can expect QB Riley Skinner to be much better than in the first meeting. Wake will look to establish the run early to keep Navy’s nation leading rushing attack off the field and will look to exploit a suspect Navy secondary with the play action passing game. Navy will keep it close early, but in the end look for Wake Forest’s better talent to come through. Wake Forest by 7-10.<o
></o><o
> </o><o
> </o>New Mexico Bowl<o
></o>University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico<o
></o>3 units on Colorado St. +3 over Fresno t.<o
></o>Colorado St. (6-6) vs. Fresno St. (7-5)- Fresno St. has had what can only characterized as a disappointing season plagued with inconsistency after coming into the season with expectations of a WAC championship. Injuries are largely to blame for the Bulldogs problems this season, but they won’t be getting much healthier for this game. Colorado St. comes in playing it’s best football of the season under first year head coach Steve Fairchild. Look for Gartrell Johnson to have a big game running the ball and the Rams to spring the upset. Colorado St. by 3.<o
></o><o
> </o><o
> </o>MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl<o
></o>Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida<o
></o>10 units on South Florida -11.5 over Memphis<o
></o>Memphis (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5)-South Florida appears to have all the edges in this game starting with their play making QB Matt Grothe. Look for Grothe to make big plays through the air and with his feet, and if he can avoid making multiple turnovers, this game shouldn’t be close. Memphis will have a hard time handling standout defensive end George Selvie, who will be in the Tiger’s backfield all game long. In the end Memphis won’t be able to keep up with the Bulls of USF. South Florida by 21-24.<o
></o><o
> </o><o
> </o>Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl<o
></o>Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada<o
></o>5 units on Arizona -3 over BYU<o
></o>(16)Brigham Young(10-2) vs. Arizona(7-5)-In what should easily be the best game of the day, two high flying offenses collide led by talented QB’s. BYU may come into the game a little disinterested by making their fourth straight appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl and if they do it will cost them, as Arizona will certainly be fired up, making the schools first post-season appearance in 10 years. Max Hall should be able to lead the Cougars offense to some points against Arizona’s defense, but the question will be if BYU’s defense can slow down Willie Tuitama and the Arizona offense. In the end the combination of Tuitama and Tight End Rob Gronkowski will be too much for the BYU defense to handle. Arizona by 7-10.<o
></o>Ness's Bowl Plays are Wake and BYU, let me start a seperate thread for his hoops plays today...
9-2 Last 4 Saturdays in the hoops
Larry's Daytime Dominator
Daytime Dominator 15* Texas.
Larry's 20* Revenge G.O.M
Revenge Game of the Month 20* Boston College.
Larry's Bailout Blowout
Bailout Game of the Month 15* UTEP.
9-2 Last 4 Saturdays in the hoops
Larry's Daytime Dominator
Daytime Dominator 15* Texas.
Larry's 20* Revenge G.O.M
Revenge Game of the Month 20* Boston College.
Larry's Bailout Blowout
Bailout Game of the Month 15* UTEP.
Last edited by a moderator:
Handicapper: AAA Sports
Memphis vs. South Florida (NCAAF) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Pick
Pick: Total: 54.5/-105 Under Play Title: 3* College Football Heavy Hitter
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
I am going to be very brief as I write this very late Friday evening and actually very early Saturday morning. Memphis, who has been able to score some points this year, is not going to have the same success against these guys. The Bulls have one of the best D's in the land and have proved that a lot. They gave up just 13 at West Va in their last game, just 13 to UConn prior to that. Rutgers had their way with them on the scoreboard, but that was mostly because of turnovers. They have extreme quickness and they are going to make it very difficult for the Tigers to move the ball effectively. The Tigers last 4 games have been with Tulane, Central Florida, SMU and Southern Miss. That is not the who's who of college football. They have had other success verses lessor schools but they have not faced a school of this caliber yet. The Bulls have scored 20 or fewer points in their last 5 games. They control the clock and they have a ball control offense. This number has risen from an opening of 51. I think not for good reason and I do know that there is a trend of early College Bowls going Over. This one does not.
Memphis vs. South Florida (NCAAF) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Pick
Pick: Total: 54.5/-105 Under Play Title: 3* College Football Heavy Hitter
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
I am going to be very brief as I write this very late Friday evening and actually very early Saturday morning. Memphis, who has been able to score some points this year, is not going to have the same success against these guys. The Bulls have one of the best D's in the land and have proved that a lot. They gave up just 13 at West Va in their last game, just 13 to UConn prior to that. Rutgers had their way with them on the scoreboard, but that was mostly because of turnovers. They have extreme quickness and they are going to make it very difficult for the Tigers to move the ball effectively. The Tigers last 4 games have been with Tulane, Central Florida, SMU and Southern Miss. That is not the who's who of college football. They have had other success verses lessor schools but they have not faced a school of this caliber yet. The Bulls have scored 20 or fewer points in their last 5 games. They control the clock and they have a ball control offense. This number has risen from an opening of 51. I think not for good reason and I do know that there is a trend of early College Bowls going Over. This one does not.
Youngstown Connection
Date: Saturday, December 20, 2008
$49.00 Guaranteed Selection:
NCAA Bowl Super Play #1
Navy +3 11:00AM Eastern
There will be a handful of Bowl Super Plays this bowl season. If we were to rate games these would be amongst the highest. Two of them go today. Get on board and cash in.
Date: Saturday, December 20, 2008
$49.00 Guaranteed Selection:
NCAA Bowl Super Play #1
Navy +3 11:00AM Eastern
There will be a handful of Bowl Super Plays this bowl season. If we were to rate games these would be amongst the highest. Two of them go today. Get on board and cash in.
IC's Bowl Research this week, he swept yesterday, I'm working on getting his card today...
Eagle Bank Bowl: Navy vs. Wake Forest
This game is at on ESPN and is at RFK Stadium in Washington D.C. – the home of the Redskins. It’s not often that you see two teams that met during the regular season face off once against during the bowl season but such is the case here. Navy beat this team 24-17 on the road earlier this year. Note, that this game is RFK Stadium in Washington D.C.. You want to know what’s amazing about this game? It’s the fact that Wake was a -17 point favorite against Navy earlier in the year and now Wake sits as just a -3 point favorite after Navy winning outright against them on the road. Navy’s splits are as follows:
Navy Offense: #1 Rushing, #59 Total offense #48 in points scored.
Navy Defense: #52 Overall in defense, #77 in pass defense, #30 Rush defense and #38 in points allowed.
Wake Offense: #103 in Total Yards, 85th in passing, 101st in total Rushing.
Wake Defense: 19th Overall Defense, 28th pass defense, 21st rush defense and 17th in points allowed.
New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State vs. Colorado State
This game is on ESPN and is at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. These two teams actually have some history as back in 2006 Colorado State beat this team 35-23 and they were actually 14 point underdogs coming into that game. Fresno State is obviously feeling the love here by about 66% of the public but they come off absolutely getting embarrassed against Boise State by a score of 10-61. The wild thing about that game is that it was 13-10 at halftime and then Boise State just opened up a can in the second half. Fresno State this year has been one of the worst overall ATS covers at 2-10 ATS but once again, they come off the worst loss of the season so they likely have great incentive to bounce-back. This team also has one of the best ability to close out on in the fourth quarter as although they didn’t do it at all against Boise State, they were solid on the road this year and many of those were late fourth quarter comebacks. This team is ranked 43rd in offense, 65th in passing, 35th in rushing and 40th in points scored. This team’s defense is ranked 89th overall, 50th in pass defense, 104th in rush defense and 91st in points allowed. Colorado State is ranked 46th overall on offense, 30th in passing, 79th in rushing and 76th in points scored. Colorado State’s defense on the other hand is much weaker ranking 99th overall, 83rd in passing yards, 102nd in rushing defense and 89th in points overall.
St. Petersburg Bowl: Memphis vs. South Florida
This game is on ESPN2 and is at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Well, this is basically a home game for South Florida as they love playing bowl games in Florida and the Bowl organizers are well aware they can more than pack out the stadium when the Bulls are in the house. Memphis comes off a huge win over Tulane by winning 45-6, plays a South Florida team that actually comes off a loss against WVU by a score of 7-13 on the road. So, obviously, with South Florid being at home, coming from the Big East and coming off a loss is relatively appealing. Remember, Memphis has an offense that is ranked 22nd, 47th in passing, 19th in rushing and 44th in points scored. Memphis has a defense that is ranked 53rd in the nation, 47th in passing, 70th in rushing and 66th in overall defense. South Florida has an offense that is ranked 38th overall, 39th in passing, 51st in rushing, and 54th in points scored. South Florida’s defense is what has been most impressive with their rush defense ranked 9th in the nation, their pass defense ranked in the top 45, and being top 30 in points allowed.
Last Vegas Bowl: BYU vs. Arizona
This game is on ESPN at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. Well, what better than Nevada for this venue. Everyone and their mother will be wagering on this game. The first that jumps out at you is the records between these two teams. After all, you have a 10 win BYU team that was in the race for a BCS birth except for the fact when they were torn up at TCU on the road. But, after years of being the ATS darling, BYU really took it on the chin this year ATS wise as they went just 3-8 ATS. Max Hall did have a great season for the Cougars as he threw for 34 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. This team comes off a tough 24 point loss to Utah and now has to turn around and play a PAC-10 team in Arizona that comes off an easy win over Arizona State. The two teams that these two share that they have played is New Mexico and UCLA. BYU beat UCLA at home 59-0 and New Mexico 21-3 at home. Arizona beat UCLA 31-10 on the road and lost to New Mexico 28-36 as 10 point favorites in the early portion of the season. But, this team did lose to Oregon St by just 2 points 17-19 and USC 10-17. I lean a bit on the over here, but I think this is one of the toughest lines to hit this bowl season.
Hawaii Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Hawaii
This game is on ESPN and is held at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu. I remember the day if Hawaii is given as a 1 point favorite or dog at home, folks would jump on them immediately. You have a 6-6 team here in Notre Dame facing a 7-6 team in Hawaii. Notre Dame is a team that is as unpredictable as they come as they are the same team that lost to USC by 35, Syracuse by 1 point at home (or else, they would have been a 7-5 team this year), but also defeated the likes of Navy on the road outright on the road, Stanford at home as well as Purdue, both games they covered easily. Give Hawaii a lot of credit as they nearly defeated Cincy at home falling short 24-29 covering the 7.5 spread. For this team’s credit, Hawaii too played some great games including beating Fresno State on the road, losing to Boise State on the blue turf by just 20 which Fresno State lost by around 50 points and beating Nevada at home. ND has the 74th best offense in the nation with a clear edge as it relates to passing as they are top 50 but around top 100 in rushing and on defense, their strength his team is a top 40 overall defense, 29th in pass defense but around top 70 in rush defense. I actually lean on Hawaii at home but give Notre Dame a lot of credit for winning at Navy and they played teams like Pittsburgh very tough at home who is capable of being the Big East Champs on any given day and nearly beating UNC on the road. No thanks, will stay away from this game.
Friday's Analysis: 2-0 Sweep
4* NBA (POD): Detroit/Utah Over 192(Winner)
I went ahead and counted the Blazers 5* GOW as a Push. I got the line overnight at -5 but in the morning and throughout the day it was at -4.5 and even -4 prior to a few hours before game time. Thus, most clients got it as a win but I will go ahead and count it as a push as my concern is for anyone who did get it at -5. I understand if someone did get it overnight as I want to make sure if we win, everyone wins. As per this game, we will continue to stick to our philosophy of doing 1 POD per day and seeing how that works. Look, the Jazz clearly showed they can put up some points without Boozer by making a huge comeback against a very good defensive team in the Nets in their last game. The way I have broken down the math in this game is the fact that I think the Jazz could very well top 100 in this game. Remember, in the first half against the Nets they scored 31 points. In fact, this was due to a 7 point first quarter. Then, in the second half, against a Nets team known for sound defense, this team put up 72 points and gave up 53 points as they got their offense in sync without Boozer. Heck, this team put up 7 points in the first quarter and still managed to score over a 100 points in the game. Remember, without Boozer other players on the perimeter need to step up including AK, Okur and Korver. I look for a similar game today as these two teams went over the last 5 times they have met. In fact, last year, in Detroit, the total for both those games were 190 and 192.5 and they totaled 196 and 199. I look for plenty of free throws here and for Utah to be an active dog that could very well win this game outright. But, more imporatantly, I look for a game that likely totals in the low 200's today as the Pistons are the same team that gave up 110 points to the Pacers at home. The over is 4-0 when the Jazz are road dogs and the over is 6-0 when the Pistons play teams with a winning record.
4* College Ball (POD): Richmond Spiders +8 (Winner)
Look, I understand that this takes a leap of faith. The Richmond Spiders might not strike the greatest fears in the hearts of many teams, but Wake is in a very tough spot today. Remember the fact that Wake Forest has yet to play a true road game this year. Yup, that's right, Wake has not played a true road game this year and this is the first time this team is going into a hostile crowd to get the job done over a Richmond Spider team that will be absolutely be fired up for this game. Don't forget that this team is nationally televised on Friday Night on ESPN. Richmond has been waiting for this game for quite some time and that place will be rocking tonight. I swear to you this spread is just begging for a dog cover and a potential outright win. Wake once again has not played a true road game all year and that itself makes for five more turnovers than what they would normally have. Yes, they won big ovr Indiana and Baylor. But, that was on home and neutral floor. Heck, even on a semi-away game in Anaheim this team beat Cal Fullerton by just 6 points and Cal Fullerton is a top 175 team. Richmond on the other hand is a top 150 team. Richmond just faced a VCU team ranked in the top 75 and lost to them by 1 point and they yet to lose back to back games all year. This team lost by just 5 to Syracuse on the road 71-75 earlier this year and I think this is a game they could be very competitive in. This Richmond team is led by Coach Chris Mooney who finished 16-15 last year in a drastic improvement and is led by a solid backcourt from Anderson and Gonzalvez. In fact, if Dan Geriot doesn't go out with a new injury, this team could have very well competed for a top 3 spot in the A-10. Nevertheless, what we have going for us is a team at home, on national television, as an underdog, on espn, coming off a loss, playing a Wake team that faces its first true road contest, us having Richmond going down by 4 points on the spreadsheet and power rankings and fading the public. The Spiders are 13-3-1 ATS following a straight up loss while the DDeacon are 0-4 ATS on the road of late.
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Eagle Bank Bowl: Navy vs. Wake Forest
This game is at on ESPN and is at RFK Stadium in Washington D.C. – the home of the Redskins. It’s not often that you see two teams that met during the regular season face off once against during the bowl season but such is the case here. Navy beat this team 24-17 on the road earlier this year. Note, that this game is RFK Stadium in Washington D.C.. You want to know what’s amazing about this game? It’s the fact that Wake was a -17 point favorite against Navy earlier in the year and now Wake sits as just a -3 point favorite after Navy winning outright against them on the road. Navy’s splits are as follows:
Navy Offense: #1 Rushing, #59 Total offense #48 in points scored.
Navy Defense: #52 Overall in defense, #77 in pass defense, #30 Rush defense and #38 in points allowed.
Wake Offense: #103 in Total Yards, 85th in passing, 101st in total Rushing.
Wake Defense: 19th Overall Defense, 28th pass defense, 21st rush defense and 17th in points allowed.
New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State vs. Colorado State
This game is on ESPN and is at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. These two teams actually have some history as back in 2006 Colorado State beat this team 35-23 and they were actually 14 point underdogs coming into that game. Fresno State is obviously feeling the love here by about 66% of the public but they come off absolutely getting embarrassed against Boise State by a score of 10-61. The wild thing about that game is that it was 13-10 at halftime and then Boise State just opened up a can in the second half. Fresno State this year has been one of the worst overall ATS covers at 2-10 ATS but once again, they come off the worst loss of the season so they likely have great incentive to bounce-back. This team also has one of the best ability to close out on in the fourth quarter as although they didn’t do it at all against Boise State, they were solid on the road this year and many of those were late fourth quarter comebacks. This team is ranked 43rd in offense, 65th in passing, 35th in rushing and 40th in points scored. This team’s defense is ranked 89th overall, 50th in pass defense, 104th in rush defense and 91st in points allowed. Colorado State is ranked 46th overall on offense, 30th in passing, 79th in rushing and 76th in points scored. Colorado State’s defense on the other hand is much weaker ranking 99th overall, 83rd in passing yards, 102nd in rushing defense and 89th in points overall.
St. Petersburg Bowl: Memphis vs. South Florida
This game is on ESPN2 and is at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Well, this is basically a home game for South Florida as they love playing bowl games in Florida and the Bowl organizers are well aware they can more than pack out the stadium when the Bulls are in the house. Memphis comes off a huge win over Tulane by winning 45-6, plays a South Florida team that actually comes off a loss against WVU by a score of 7-13 on the road. So, obviously, with South Florid being at home, coming from the Big East and coming off a loss is relatively appealing. Remember, Memphis has an offense that is ranked 22nd, 47th in passing, 19th in rushing and 44th in points scored. Memphis has a defense that is ranked 53rd in the nation, 47th in passing, 70th in rushing and 66th in overall defense. South Florida has an offense that is ranked 38th overall, 39th in passing, 51st in rushing, and 54th in points scored. South Florida’s defense is what has been most impressive with their rush defense ranked 9th in the nation, their pass defense ranked in the top 45, and being top 30 in points allowed.
Last Vegas Bowl: BYU vs. Arizona
This game is on ESPN at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. Well, what better than Nevada for this venue. Everyone and their mother will be wagering on this game. The first that jumps out at you is the records between these two teams. After all, you have a 10 win BYU team that was in the race for a BCS birth except for the fact when they were torn up at TCU on the road. But, after years of being the ATS darling, BYU really took it on the chin this year ATS wise as they went just 3-8 ATS. Max Hall did have a great season for the Cougars as he threw for 34 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. This team comes off a tough 24 point loss to Utah and now has to turn around and play a PAC-10 team in Arizona that comes off an easy win over Arizona State. The two teams that these two share that they have played is New Mexico and UCLA. BYU beat UCLA at home 59-0 and New Mexico 21-3 at home. Arizona beat UCLA 31-10 on the road and lost to New Mexico 28-36 as 10 point favorites in the early portion of the season. But, this team did lose to Oregon St by just 2 points 17-19 and USC 10-17. I lean a bit on the over here, but I think this is one of the toughest lines to hit this bowl season.
Hawaii Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Hawaii
This game is on ESPN and is held at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu. I remember the day if Hawaii is given as a 1 point favorite or dog at home, folks would jump on them immediately. You have a 6-6 team here in Notre Dame facing a 7-6 team in Hawaii. Notre Dame is a team that is as unpredictable as they come as they are the same team that lost to USC by 35, Syracuse by 1 point at home (or else, they would have been a 7-5 team this year), but also defeated the likes of Navy on the road outright on the road, Stanford at home as well as Purdue, both games they covered easily. Give Hawaii a lot of credit as they nearly defeated Cincy at home falling short 24-29 covering the 7.5 spread. For this team’s credit, Hawaii too played some great games including beating Fresno State on the road, losing to Boise State on the blue turf by just 20 which Fresno State lost by around 50 points and beating Nevada at home. ND has the 74th best offense in the nation with a clear edge as it relates to passing as they are top 50 but around top 100 in rushing and on defense, their strength his team is a top 40 overall defense, 29th in pass defense but around top 70 in rush defense. I actually lean on Hawaii at home but give Notre Dame a lot of credit for winning at Navy and they played teams like Pittsburgh very tough at home who is capable of being the Big East Champs on any given day and nearly beating UNC on the road. No thanks, will stay away from this game.
Friday's Analysis: 2-0 Sweep
4* NBA (POD): Detroit/Utah Over 192(Winner)
I went ahead and counted the Blazers 5* GOW as a Push. I got the line overnight at -5 but in the morning and throughout the day it was at -4.5 and even -4 prior to a few hours before game time. Thus, most clients got it as a win but I will go ahead and count it as a push as my concern is for anyone who did get it at -5. I understand if someone did get it overnight as I want to make sure if we win, everyone wins. As per this game, we will continue to stick to our philosophy of doing 1 POD per day and seeing how that works. Look, the Jazz clearly showed they can put up some points without Boozer by making a huge comeback against a very good defensive team in the Nets in their last game. The way I have broken down the math in this game is the fact that I think the Jazz could very well top 100 in this game. Remember, in the first half against the Nets they scored 31 points. In fact, this was due to a 7 point first quarter. Then, in the second half, against a Nets team known for sound defense, this team put up 72 points and gave up 53 points as they got their offense in sync without Boozer. Heck, this team put up 7 points in the first quarter and still managed to score over a 100 points in the game. Remember, without Boozer other players on the perimeter need to step up including AK, Okur and Korver. I look for a similar game today as these two teams went over the last 5 times they have met. In fact, last year, in Detroit, the total for both those games were 190 and 192.5 and they totaled 196 and 199. I look for plenty of free throws here and for Utah to be an active dog that could very well win this game outright. But, more imporatantly, I look for a game that likely totals in the low 200's today as the Pistons are the same team that gave up 110 points to the Pacers at home. The over is 4-0 when the Jazz are road dogs and the over is 6-0 when the Pistons play teams with a winning record.
4* College Ball (POD): Richmond Spiders +8 (Winner)
Look, I understand that this takes a leap of faith. The Richmond Spiders might not strike the greatest fears in the hearts of many teams, but Wake is in a very tough spot today. Remember the fact that Wake Forest has yet to play a true road game this year. Yup, that's right, Wake has not played a true road game this year and this is the first time this team is going into a hostile crowd to get the job done over a Richmond Spider team that will be absolutely be fired up for this game. Don't forget that this team is nationally televised on Friday Night on ESPN. Richmond has been waiting for this game for quite some time and that place will be rocking tonight. I swear to you this spread is just begging for a dog cover and a potential outright win. Wake once again has not played a true road game all year and that itself makes for five more turnovers than what they would normally have. Yes, they won big ovr Indiana and Baylor. But, that was on home and neutral floor. Heck, even on a semi-away game in Anaheim this team beat Cal Fullerton by just 6 points and Cal Fullerton is a top 175 team. Richmond on the other hand is a top 150 team. Richmond just faced a VCU team ranked in the top 75 and lost to them by 1 point and they yet to lose back to back games all year. This team lost by just 5 to Syracuse on the road 71-75 earlier this year and I think this is a game they could be very competitive in. This Richmond team is led by Coach Chris Mooney who finished 16-15 last year in a drastic improvement and is led by a solid backcourt from Anderson and Gonzalvez. In fact, if Dan Geriot doesn't go out with a new injury, this team could have very well competed for a top 3 spot in the A-10. Nevertheless, what we have going for us is a team at home, on national television, as an underdog, on espn, coming off a loss, playing a Wake team that faces its first true road contest, us having Richmond going down by 4 points on the spreadsheet and power rankings and fading the public. The Spiders are 13-3-1 ATS following a straight up loss while the DDeacon are 0-4 ATS on the road of late.
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