HELMUT SPORTS
Best Bet: Navy -14
@ Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pa. O/U 41 11:30 am PT
There’s been some real progress for Army in its first year under Rich Ellerson
with five wins for the first time since 1996. If they can upset Navy they would get
to play in the EagleBank Bowl. I am however not impressed as their five victories
came against VMI and four FBS teams that combined to win only six games.
They were also fortunate to beat North Texas, benefiting from five turnovers and
blocked a field goal. The Mean Green offense moved the ball into Army territory
on almost every drive but their inability to hold on to the ball did them in. We
aren’t going to see Navy make those kinds of mistakes as they were the league’s
best team in holding onto the ball with just 13 total turnovers. When the Black
Nights did play an opponent with a winning record non-competitive showings
were the norm as their failed to stay within two touchdowns of Rutgers, Temple
and Iowa State. The Midshipmen have been battle tested this season with several
difficult games and off a loss against Hawaii, they will certainly be ready for the
Black Knights and look to build some momentum heading into their bowl game.
Best Bet: Navy -14
@ Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pa. O/U 41 11:30 am PT
There’s been some real progress for Army in its first year under Rich Ellerson
with five wins for the first time since 1996. If they can upset Navy they would get
to play in the EagleBank Bowl. I am however not impressed as their five victories
came against VMI and four FBS teams that combined to win only six games.
They were also fortunate to beat North Texas, benefiting from five turnovers and
blocked a field goal. The Mean Green offense moved the ball into Army territory
on almost every drive but their inability to hold on to the ball did them in. We
aren’t going to see Navy make those kinds of mistakes as they were the league’s
best team in holding onto the ball with just 13 total turnovers. When the Black
Nights did play an opponent with a winning record non-competitive showings
were the norm as their failed to stay within two touchdowns of Rutgers, Temple
and Iowa State. The Midshipmen have been battle tested this season with several
difficult games and off a loss against Hawaii, they will certainly be ready for the
Black Knights and look to build some momentum heading into their bowl game.
ANDREW LANGE
Best Bet: Navy -14
@ Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pa. O/U 41 11:30 am PT
I have a hard time believing much has changed over the last couple years with both
the Army and Navy programs. Army looks to be moving in the right direction under
first-year head coach Rich Ellerson with a 5-6 record after three straight 3-9 seasons. But
with the same schedule as last year, the rushing numbers are slightly down and while
the defensive numbers are improved, it is hard to get past the fact that Army faced five
teams ranked 100th or worse in scoring average. Of the four games against teams that
are bowl eligible, the Black Knights lost by margins of 14, 17, 28 and 21. And not one of
those teams (Rutgers, Iowa State, Air Force, Temple) can be considered superior compared
to this year’s version of the Midshipmen. Keep in mind, Navy played Ohio State,
Pitt, Wake Forest and Notre Dame, winning two of those contests outright. Dating back
to 2005, Navy has posted records of 8-4, 9-4, 8-5, 8-5 and this year 8-4 meaning we are essentially
getting the same group that has absolutely owned the series winning by scores
of 42-13, 42-23, 26-14, 38-3 and 34-0. I typically don’t like laying double-digits in a rivalry
game but we are still a year or two away from this becoming a more competitive series.
Best Bet: Navy -14
@ Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pa. O/U 41 11:30 am PT
I have a hard time believing much has changed over the last couple years with both
the Army and Navy programs. Army looks to be moving in the right direction under
first-year head coach Rich Ellerson with a 5-6 record after three straight 3-9 seasons. But
with the same schedule as last year, the rushing numbers are slightly down and while
the defensive numbers are improved, it is hard to get past the fact that Army faced five
teams ranked 100th or worse in scoring average. Of the four games against teams that
are bowl eligible, the Black Knights lost by margins of 14, 17, 28 and 21. And not one of
those teams (Rutgers, Iowa State, Air Force, Temple) can be considered superior compared
to this year’s version of the Midshipmen. Keep in mind, Navy played Ohio State,
Pitt, Wake Forest and Notre Dame, winning two of those contests outright. Dating back
to 2005, Navy has posted records of 8-4, 9-4, 8-5, 8-5 and this year 8-4 meaning we are essentially
getting the same group that has absolutely owned the series winning by scores
of 42-13, 42-23, 26-14, 38-3 and 34-0. I typically don’t like laying double-digits in a rivalry
game but we are still a year or two away from this becoming a more competitive series.
Logical Approach
Opinion Only
Navy - 14 over Army (at Philadelphia, PA) - Navy has dominated this series, winning 9 of the last 10 including 7 in a row. Each of the 7 wins has been by at least a dozen points and 5 of the wins have been by at least 28 points, clearly showing the difference between these programs. At 5-6 Army is enjoying their best season in more than a decade and a win here gets them an invite to the Eagle Bank Bowl (a loss likely gives that bid to UCLA). There is a bond between the two coaches as first year Army boss Ellerson recruited Navy boss Niumatalolo to Hawaii as a player and the two have remained close over the years. But this is the Army/Navy rivalry and there's no reason to expect Navy to "take it easy" on the Cadets. Given the series history and the schedule both teams played this season (Navy defeated Air Force, Notre Dame and Wake Forest and was extremely close to winning at Ohio State in their opener) Navy deserves to again be a big favorite. Despite the improvement shown and strides made by Army this season, Navy should be able to put plenty of points on the board while defensively containing a limited Army offense that has scored under 20 points in 8 of 11 games. But this is just an opinion and not a recommended play. This writeup is provided simply because we have the space due to the end of the college regular season.
Opinion Only
Navy - 14 over Army (at Philadelphia, PA) - Navy has dominated this series, winning 9 of the last 10 including 7 in a row. Each of the 7 wins has been by at least a dozen points and 5 of the wins have been by at least 28 points, clearly showing the difference between these programs. At 5-6 Army is enjoying their best season in more than a decade and a win here gets them an invite to the Eagle Bank Bowl (a loss likely gives that bid to UCLA). There is a bond between the two coaches as first year Army boss Ellerson recruited Navy boss Niumatalolo to Hawaii as a player and the two have remained close over the years. But this is the Army/Navy rivalry and there's no reason to expect Navy to "take it easy" on the Cadets. Given the series history and the schedule both teams played this season (Navy defeated Air Force, Notre Dame and Wake Forest and was extremely close to winning at Ohio State in their opener) Navy deserves to again be a big favorite. Despite the improvement shown and strides made by Army this season, Navy should be able to put plenty of points on the board while defensively containing a limited Army offense that has scored under 20 points in 8 of 11 games. But this is just an opinion and not a recommended play. This writeup is provided simply because we have the space due to the end of the college regular season.
BlacK WidoW / B i l L Y o u n G
5* W iseg uy C B B Ga me of the D ay on Pu rdu e -4(-110 at Bodog)
Purdue is one of the best teams in the country, opening the season 8-0 with 5 returning starters from last year. They should be a much heavier favorite Saturday as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide, a team with 2 losses this season coming against Cornell and Florida State. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games following three or more consecutive home games. This team is anxious to hit the road again and improve to 9-0 on the season. Take Purdue and lay the points.
6* W ido w W isegu y N B A G AM E OF THE WE EKE ND on Chi cago Bu lls +10.5(-110 at betus)
The Bulls are finally back on track after their overtime win against the Warriors yesterday. This team is much better than they've shown over the last month, and with their struggles comes some very nice line value here against the Boston Celtics. Boston is a good team, but they are being overvalued here after winning 9 straight contests. The Bulls have won their last 2 home meetings with the Celtics, and after last year's 7-game playoff series with them, Chicago feels they can play with Boston. Boston is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take the Bulls and the points.
4* on Suns/Nuggets UNDER 226(+100 at 5dimes)
The Suns have gone UNDER the total in 7 straight games, and the Suns are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games overall. Time and time again the odds makers set Phoenix Totals much higher than they really should be. Denver has finally bought in to playing defense, allowing a respectable 101.7 points/game this season. Both teams average just over 108 points/game, so really this total tonight is not justified as it has been set far too high once again. Phoenix is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games this season. Take the UNDER 226 points.
5* W iseg uy C B B Ga me of the D ay on Pu rdu e -4(-110 at Bodog)
Purdue is one of the best teams in the country, opening the season 8-0 with 5 returning starters from last year. They should be a much heavier favorite Saturday as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide, a team with 2 losses this season coming against Cornell and Florida State. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games following three or more consecutive home games. This team is anxious to hit the road again and improve to 9-0 on the season. Take Purdue and lay the points.
6* W ido w W isegu y N B A G AM E OF THE WE EKE ND on Chi cago Bu lls +10.5(-110 at betus)
The Bulls are finally back on track after their overtime win against the Warriors yesterday. This team is much better than they've shown over the last month, and with their struggles comes some very nice line value here against the Boston Celtics. Boston is a good team, but they are being overvalued here after winning 9 straight contests. The Bulls have won their last 2 home meetings with the Celtics, and after last year's 7-game playoff series with them, Chicago feels they can play with Boston. Boston is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take the Bulls and the points.
4* on Suns/Nuggets UNDER 226(+100 at 5dimes)
The Suns have gone UNDER the total in 7 straight games, and the Suns are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games overall. Time and time again the odds makers set Phoenix Totals much higher than they really should be. Denver has finally bought in to playing defense, allowing a respectable 101.7 points/game this season. Both teams average just over 108 points/game, so really this total tonight is not justified as it has been set far too high once again. Phoenix is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games this season. Take the UNDER 226 points.
Demarco
Saturday's Play
10 Dime - Washington State
You have no idea how tempting it was to back Washington against Georgetown today, especially with the Huskies just one game removed from a double-overtime loss at Texas Tech and the Hoyas coming off a wire-to-wire rout of Butler. But, how many times have I said over the past 25 years that the marquee games are the toughest to win because their lines are always the sharpest? There's a reason that contest is priced right around 1 to 1 1/2 points and that's enough reason for me to stay away.
I used the same philosophy on Tuesday when the world was on Butler against Georgetown - and lost. Instead, I turned to the Lone Star State that night and produced a 5 dime winner on Texas Tech against TCU.
Same thing on Wednesday when I considered Connecticut versus Kentucky, but opted instead to travel to Tucson and back Arizona as a 5 dime play in a rout of Louisiana Tech.
Forget about my 5-0 NFL run that's produced 85 dimes profit the past two weeks; today it's all about taking the profit from this week's two college winners and putting it right back on the best game on today's board, another relatively obscure match-up between Washington State and Air Force in Spokane.
Remember when I said on Wednesday Louisiana Tech was overrated at 7-1 because of its weak schedule? That was one of the many reasons I went against the Bulldogs that night at Arizona and the Wildcats rolled in a rout. If Tech was overrated at 7-1, I don't know what adjective I can apply to Air Force's 5-2 record heading into today's game in Spokane against Washington State.
On the surface, 5-2 sounds impressive for the Service Academy school, but when those five wins come against the likes of Western State Colorado, Dickinson State, Charleston Southern, North Carolina Central and Prairie View - all at home no less - I can't get too excited. The Falcons' two losses? They got drilled at home by Northern Colorado, 70-46, and lost their only road game at Missouri State, 58-48. And here's something to chew on: in those two losses, they committed 17 and 16 turnovers, respectively. That's troubling when you consider Washington State forces on average 15.8 turnovers a game. And it's fair to say the Cougars are a bit better than Northern Colorado and Missouri State.
Air Force is a young team that regularly plays four freshman. And its starting center, Sammy Schafer, is expected to miss his fifth straight game today because of a concussion. But in keeping with the youth movement, the team hopes another freshman center - Taylor Broekhuis, who is a game-time decision after missing the last four games with a leg injury - might be able to help in the pivot.
What do I know about Washington State? They've got one of the best shooters in college - the nation's second-leading scorer - in 6-6 guard Klay Thompson, who is averaging 25.8 points on nearly 49% shooting from the field, including 44% from beyond the arc. He's also second on the team in rebounds (5.6 pg) and first in steals (2.1 pg). Perhaps you didn't know, but he also has the pedigree; his father is former Laker Mychal Thompson, who was the No. 1 overall draft pick in the NBA by Portland in 1978.
Washington State is not the methodical, low-scoring team that you've grown accustomed to over the years with the Bennett's - first Dick and then his son, Tony - in charge. First-year coach Ken Bone - who previously led Portland State to Big Dance appearances the past two years - allows his squad to run the floor a bit and it's reflected in the 80.2 points per game it averages.
The Cougars have lost two games this season. The first came at Gonzaga, 74-69, as a 10-point dog. Not surprisingly, three days later in Manhattan, Kansas, they played their worst game of the season, getting destroyed by K-State 86-69. Clearly they came out flat following the Gonzaga game and subsequently had no answer for the Wildcats' quickness and speed as they were buried by 20 early.
Quickness and speed; those are two factors Washington State won't have to worry about from Air Force today. For years the Falcons have relied on slowing down the pace of the game, using a strong half-court game, tough defense, and accurate three-point shooting to compete with more athletic foes. This year, they've shown a tendency to run a bit more, but this is still a team that went 0-16 in Mountain West Conference play a year ago and one that relies heavily on freshmen to contribute this season.
Air Force's toughest opponent this season has been Northern Colorado, and it was hammered in that game with its leading scorer, Grant Parker (18.2 ppg), held to just one point on 0-for-10 shooting from the field. This game might be on a "neutral" court in Spokane, but it's as much of a home game as one can possibly be for Washington State. And considering the Cougars, just one game removed from consecutive losses, took the foot off the pedal late in their last game against Idaho, I don't expect a repeat performance today. Although they easily covered as a 7-point home chalk in the 76-64 win versus Idaho, they allowed the Vandals to make a late charge that cut the deficit to seven in the closing minutes.
Today I expect a wire-to-wire effort this time with no slacking off near the end as the Cougars take advantage of a soft spot in their schedule and continue to prepare for their Pac-10 opener against Oregon in Pullman on New Year's Eve.
Paid and Confirmed by me and CORK! Good luck guys
Saturday's Play
10 Dime - Washington State
You have no idea how tempting it was to back Washington against Georgetown today, especially with the Huskies just one game removed from a double-overtime loss at Texas Tech and the Hoyas coming off a wire-to-wire rout of Butler. But, how many times have I said over the past 25 years that the marquee games are the toughest to win because their lines are always the sharpest? There's a reason that contest is priced right around 1 to 1 1/2 points and that's enough reason for me to stay away.
I used the same philosophy on Tuesday when the world was on Butler against Georgetown - and lost. Instead, I turned to the Lone Star State that night and produced a 5 dime winner on Texas Tech against TCU.
Same thing on Wednesday when I considered Connecticut versus Kentucky, but opted instead to travel to Tucson and back Arizona as a 5 dime play in a rout of Louisiana Tech.
Forget about my 5-0 NFL run that's produced 85 dimes profit the past two weeks; today it's all about taking the profit from this week's two college winners and putting it right back on the best game on today's board, another relatively obscure match-up between Washington State and Air Force in Spokane.
Remember when I said on Wednesday Louisiana Tech was overrated at 7-1 because of its weak schedule? That was one of the many reasons I went against the Bulldogs that night at Arizona and the Wildcats rolled in a rout. If Tech was overrated at 7-1, I don't know what adjective I can apply to Air Force's 5-2 record heading into today's game in Spokane against Washington State.
On the surface, 5-2 sounds impressive for the Service Academy school, but when those five wins come against the likes of Western State Colorado, Dickinson State, Charleston Southern, North Carolina Central and Prairie View - all at home no less - I can't get too excited. The Falcons' two losses? They got drilled at home by Northern Colorado, 70-46, and lost their only road game at Missouri State, 58-48. And here's something to chew on: in those two losses, they committed 17 and 16 turnovers, respectively. That's troubling when you consider Washington State forces on average 15.8 turnovers a game. And it's fair to say the Cougars are a bit better than Northern Colorado and Missouri State.
Air Force is a young team that regularly plays four freshman. And its starting center, Sammy Schafer, is expected to miss his fifth straight game today because of a concussion. But in keeping with the youth movement, the team hopes another freshman center - Taylor Broekhuis, who is a game-time decision after missing the last four games with a leg injury - might be able to help in the pivot.
What do I know about Washington State? They've got one of the best shooters in college - the nation's second-leading scorer - in 6-6 guard Klay Thompson, who is averaging 25.8 points on nearly 49% shooting from the field, including 44% from beyond the arc. He's also second on the team in rebounds (5.6 pg) and first in steals (2.1 pg). Perhaps you didn't know, but he also has the pedigree; his father is former Laker Mychal Thompson, who was the No. 1 overall draft pick in the NBA by Portland in 1978.
Washington State is not the methodical, low-scoring team that you've grown accustomed to over the years with the Bennett's - first Dick and then his son, Tony - in charge. First-year coach Ken Bone - who previously led Portland State to Big Dance appearances the past two years - allows his squad to run the floor a bit and it's reflected in the 80.2 points per game it averages.
The Cougars have lost two games this season. The first came at Gonzaga, 74-69, as a 10-point dog. Not surprisingly, three days later in Manhattan, Kansas, they played their worst game of the season, getting destroyed by K-State 86-69. Clearly they came out flat following the Gonzaga game and subsequently had no answer for the Wildcats' quickness and speed as they were buried by 20 early.
Quickness and speed; those are two factors Washington State won't have to worry about from Air Force today. For years the Falcons have relied on slowing down the pace of the game, using a strong half-court game, tough defense, and accurate three-point shooting to compete with more athletic foes. This year, they've shown a tendency to run a bit more, but this is still a team that went 0-16 in Mountain West Conference play a year ago and one that relies heavily on freshmen to contribute this season.
Air Force's toughest opponent this season has been Northern Colorado, and it was hammered in that game with its leading scorer, Grant Parker (18.2 ppg), held to just one point on 0-for-10 shooting from the field. This game might be on a "neutral" court in Spokane, but it's as much of a home game as one can possibly be for Washington State. And considering the Cougars, just one game removed from consecutive losses, took the foot off the pedal late in their last game against Idaho, I don't expect a repeat performance today. Although they easily covered as a 7-point home chalk in the 76-64 win versus Idaho, they allowed the Vandals to make a late charge that cut the deficit to seven in the closing minutes.
Today I expect a wire-to-wire effort this time with no slacking off near the end as the Cougars take advantage of a soft spot in their schedule and continue to prepare for their Pac-10 opener against Oregon in Pullman on New Year's Eve.
Paid and Confirmed by me and CORK! Good luck guys
Marco D'Angelo | CBB Sides Sat, 12/12/09 - 8:00 PM Û‰
triple-dime bet 570 Nebraska -6.5 (-110) BetUS vs 569 Oregon St.
Analysis: PLAY: NEBRASKA
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
Nebraska has won 5 of their last 6 with only loss coming to rival Creighton. We are getting good line valuƒe here as my numbers have Nebraska winning by 13-17 points. Early season Basketball is where you find the softest lines this is one of them. This Game will be a Massacre. TAKE NEBRASKA as MARCO'S 7* COLLEGE MASSACRE GAME.
Marco Rated this Play a 7* PLAY on his Executive Late Phone Service
BONUS PLAYS
PLAY: TOWSON ST
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
Live Dog here Towson cached George Washington off a barnburner with Providence in last game. UPSET SPECIAL. Take TOWSON ST
Marco Rated this Play a 5* on his Executive Late Phone Service
PLAY: GEORGETOWN
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
First true road test for Georgetown and I like them to get the job done. Washington really hasn't beaten anyone good and will have their hands full with Georgetown defense. Georgetown wins by 7-9 points. Take GEORGETOWN.
Marco Rated this Play a 4* on his Executive Late Phone Service
555 James Madison 6.5 (-110) SportBet vs 556 E. Mich
Analysis:
PLAY: JAMES MADISON
RATING: SINGLE DIME PLAY
JAMES MADISON should keep this close as public is all over E. Michigan expecting them to bounce back following Ohio St ass beating they took. This goes to the wire grab the points. Take JAMES MADISON.
Marco Rated this Playƒ a 3* on his Executive Late Phone Service
561 Kansas St. 2.5 (-110) SportBet vs 562 UNLV
Analysis:
PLAY: KANSAS ST
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
KANSAS ST will be totally focused for this match up against UNLV. Noƒte this is not a true home game for UNLV as their regular home the Thomas & Mack Center is home to the Rodeo this week. Live Dog another Upset Call. Take KANSAS ST.
Marco Rated this Play a 4* on his Executive Late Phone Service
triple-dime bet 570 Nebraska -6.5 (-110) BetUS vs 569 Oregon St.
Analysis: PLAY: NEBRASKA
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
Nebraska has won 5 of their last 6 with only loss coming to rival Creighton. We are getting good line valuƒe here as my numbers have Nebraska winning by 13-17 points. Early season Basketball is where you find the softest lines this is one of them. This Game will be a Massacre. TAKE NEBRASKA as MARCO'S 7* COLLEGE MASSACRE GAME.
Marco Rated this Play a 7* PLAY on his Executive Late Phone Service
BONUS PLAYS
PLAY: TOWSON ST
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
Live Dog here Towson cached George Washington off a barnburner with Providence in last game. UPSET SPECIAL. Take TOWSON ST
Marco Rated this Play a 5* on his Executive Late Phone Service
PLAY: GEORGETOWN
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
First true road test for Georgetown and I like them to get the job done. Washington really hasn't beaten anyone good and will have their hands full with Georgetown defense. Georgetown wins by 7-9 points. Take GEORGETOWN.
Marco Rated this Play a 4* on his Executive Late Phone Service
555 James Madison 6.5 (-110) SportBet vs 556 E. Mich
Analysis:
PLAY: JAMES MADISON
RATING: SINGLE DIME PLAY
JAMES MADISON should keep this close as public is all over E. Michigan expecting them to bounce back following Ohio St ass beating they took. This goes to the wire grab the points. Take JAMES MADISON.
Marco Rated this Playƒ a 3* on his Executive Late Phone Service
561 Kansas St. 2.5 (-110) SportBet vs 562 UNLV
Analysis:
PLAY: KANSAS ST
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
KANSAS ST will be totally focused for this match up against UNLV. Noƒte this is not a true home game for UNLV as their regular home the Thomas & Mack Center is home to the Rodeo this week. Live Dog another Upset Call. Take KANSAS ST.
Marco Rated this Play a 4* on his Executive Late Phone Service
