THE SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Army (5-6, 3-7 ATS) vs. Navy (8-4, 6-5 ATS)
(at Philadelphia)
Army and Navy get together for the 110th time, with the Midshipmen gunning for a record eighth straight win in this storied rivalry, while the Black Knights attempt to end that drought and secure a bowl berth in the process.
Army has been idle since Nov. 21 when it beat North Texas 17-13 as a one-point underdog, winning despite getting outgained by 160 yards (447-287). Army has followed up a three-game losing skid by winning two in a row (the other a 22-17 non-lined victory over VMI). The Black Knights haven’t had a three-game winning streak since taking four in a row near the end of the 2005 season – a streak that ended with a season-ending loss to Navy.
The Midshipmen had a two-game winning streak snapped on Nov. 28 at Hawaii, losing 24-17 as a hefty 8½-point favorite. Navy has been outgained in four straight contests, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. Prior to this four-game stretch, the Middies had won five in a row (3-2 ATS). The underdog has covered in each of Navy’s last five lined games.
If Army wins today, it will earn its first bowl berth since 1996 and take on Temple in the Eagle Bank Bowl on Dec. 29. Meanwhile, the Middies are already slated to face Missouri in the Texas Bowl on Dec. 31.
Navy not only has won seven straight in this series, but it has done so by a combined score 274-71. The Midshipmen are 6-1 ATS during this run, including cashing four times as a double-digit favorite. Last year, Navy rolled 34-0 at Lincoln Financial Field as a 10½-point favorite, outgaining Army 430-154 (368-102 in rushing). In fact, the Middies have outgained the Black Knights every year during the seven-game winning streak, including four times by 194 yards or more.
The favorite is on a 7-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Navy has won 14 consecutive games against service academies Army and Air Force and will capture its seventh consecutive Commander-in-Chief’s trophy with a victory today.
In addition to their pointspread struggles against Navy, the Black Knights are in ATS slumps of 2-7 overall, 2-5 as an underdog, 2-5 at neutral sites (all as a ‘dog), 4-19 after a bye week, 1-6 in December and 0-5 versus winning teams. Navy has failed to cover in three straight as a favorite and six of nine when laying more than 10 points, but the Midshipmen are on positive ATS stretches of 10-4 at neutral sites, 8-2 in December, 6-1 when favored at neutral fields and 48-23-1 against opponents with a losing record.
For Army, the “under” is on runs of 6-2 overall, 7-1 after a bye, 4-0 at neutral sites (all as an underdog) and 7-3 as a pup. Navy carries “under” runs of 3-1 overall, 4-1 after a bye, 4-1 as a favorite of more than 10 points and 7-3 against losing teams. Finally, the last three clashes in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NAVY and UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(13) Ohio State (7-1, 6-2 ATS) at (22) Butler (6-3, 3-6 ATS)
The Buckeyes shoot for their sixth straight win and try to avenge last year’s loss to Butler when these non-conference foes clash at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
Ohio State has been idle since last Saturday, when it destroyed Eastern Michigan 111-60, easily cashing despite being a hefty 22-point home favorite. But it was a costly win as their top player, guard Evan Turner, suffered broken bones in his back after he fell following a dunk. Turner, who is averaging 18.5 points, 11.4 rebounds and 5.9 assists, is expected to be sidelined about eight weeks.
Since suffering their only loss of the season to North Carolina (77-73 as a two-point underdog in the NIT Season Tip-Off), the Buckeyes have won five in a row, averaging 91.6 points per game (56.1 percent shooting) and allowing just 61 ppg (39.2 percent). Six of the team’s seven wins this year have been by 13 points or more, including five by 20 or more.
The Bulldogs suffered yet another loss to a quality opponent Tuesday, falling 72-65 to Georgetown as a 2½-point underdog at Madison Square Garden. All three of Butler’s losses this year have come against teams from power conferences (Minnesota, Clemson and Georgetown). However, in their two true home games, the Bulldogs posted victories by point margins of 11 (73-62 over Davidson) and 17 (84-67 over Valparaiso), but they failed to cover in both games.
These regional rivals have faced off each of the last two years and three times since 2005, with Ohio State winning two of the clashes and Butler going 3-0 ATS. The home team has won all three meetings, including the Buckeyes’ 54-51 exactly one year ago, but OSU came up short as a seven-point home chalk.
It’s all positive ATS trends for Ohio State, including 4-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 18-6 in non-league action, 7-1 on Saturday, 7-2 after a SU victory and 4-1 when coming off a blowout win of 20 points or more. The Bulldogs are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 non-conference contests, including 4-1-1 ATS in their last six against the Big Ten, but they’re otherwise in pointspread ruts of 3-10 overall, 1-7 at home, 0-5 on Saturday, 2-7 against winning teams and 2-6 both after a SU loss and an ATS setback.
Ohio State carries “over” trends of 4-1 overall (all non-conference games) and 4-0 after both a SU and ATS win, but the under is 4-1 in its last five on the road and 35-16-1 in its last 52 on Saturday. Butler has stayed low in four of five against Big Ten opponents, but is otherwise on “over” stretches of 13-6 overall, 7-3 at home, 7-3 in non-conference contests, 4-1 on Saturday and 12-4 after a SU defeat. Finally, these teams stayed under the total in their head-to-head clashes the last two years.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE
(4) Kentucky (9-0, 3-4 ATS) at Indiana (4-4, 3-4-1 ATS)
Freshman phenom John Wall will try to keep the Wildcats perfect on the season when he invades Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Ind., for an annual non-league battle with Indiana.
Trailing by a point with less than a minute to play against UConn on Wednesday at Madison Square Garden, Wall scored on a driving layup, was fouled and made the ensuing free throw to give Kentucky the winning points in a 64-61 victory over the 14th-ranked Huskies, cashing as a one-point underdog. Including last Saturday’s 68-66 win over No. 10 North Carolina as a 3½-point home favorite, Kentucky won its last two games over Top 25 teams by a total of just three points.
Wall scored a game-high 25 points and overcame seven turnovers against UConn, and he’s averaging 19.4 ppg, scoring in double figures in all nine contests. On the downside, the 6-foot-4 point guard has 14 turnovers in his last two games and 38 giveaways on the season against just 24 assists.
Indiana is also coming off a non-conference victory at Madison Square Garden, stunning Pitt 74-64 as a nine-point underdog Tuesday, the biggest win for the program since Tom Crean took over as coach prior to last season. The Hoosiers have alternated wins and losses in their last four contests, but they dropped their most recent home game to ACC foe Maryland, losing 80-68 as a five-point pup on Dec. 1. Indiana, which was dreadful offensively in its first season under Crean, has scored at least 66 points in every game and is averaging 73.5 ppg.
The host has dominated this rivalry, winning five in a row and nine of the last 11 meetings – all SU and ATS -- going back to 1998. Last year, the Wildcats rolled 72-54 and barely covered as a 17½-point home chalk. Kentucky is 7-2 SU and ATS in the nine battles with the Hoosiers this decade, and the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last 11 clashes.
Additionally, this rivalry has rarely been competitive recently, with the nine contests this decade decided by 18, 19, 5, 26, 15, 39, 6, 14 and 14 points.
Kentucky ended a two-game ATS slide with Wednesday’s spread-cover against UConn but it is 2-7 ATS in its last nine after an ATS triumph. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are in pointspread funks of 2-8 against the SEC, 1-10 after a SU win and 1-7 after a non-cover.
The last four meetings and seven of the last eight in this series have stayed under the total, with the under hitting in each of the last four matchups at Indiana. Also, the Wildcats are on “under” runs of 4-0 overall, 6-1 on the road and 5-0 versus Big Ten foes, and the under is 10-3 in Indiana’s last 13 games against SEC foes and 4-0 in its last four against winning teams. On the flip side, the Hoosiers have topped the total in four straight games overall and four of five at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY and UNDER
(15) Georgetown (7-0, 2-1 ATS) vs. (17) Washington (6-1, 1-5 ATS)
(at Anaheim, Calif.)
The day’s only other matchup between Top 25 teams comes from the Honda Center in Anaheim, where the unbeaten Hoyas match up against Washington.
Georgetown feasted on cupcakes through their first six games, including facing four non-lined opponents, but proved worthy of its ranking Tuesday with a 72-65 win over 20th-ranked Butler as a 2½-point favorite. The Hoyas allowed a season high in points, but outshot Butler 44.9 percent to 31.1 percent and had a 40-26 rebounding edge. Greg Monroe led the way with a double-double of 24 points and 11 rebounds.
The Huskies bounced back from their first defeat of the season – a 99-92 overtime setback at Texas Tech in a pick-em contest – with Sunday’s 88-76 home win over Cal State Northridge. However, Washington came up just shy as a 19½-point home favorite, its fourth consecutive non-cover. Going back to last season, Lorenzo Romar’s squad is in a 1-6 ATS nosedive.
This is the first-ever meeting between these schools and Georgetown’s first contest in the state of California since 2001.
Washington is averaging 86.3 ppg on 44.2 percent shooting but giving up 72.3 ppg (44.7 percent). The Hoyas put up 72.7 ppg but shoot 49.9 percent from the field and hold opponents to just 54.9 ppg (34.6 percent).
Georgetown is now 6-1-1 ATS in its past eight lined non-conference games, but from there, the pointspread trends fall off, including 6-16-1 overall, 1-3-1 against the Pac-10, 7-19-1 on Saturday, 4-11-1 against winning teams, 1-5-1 after a SU victory and 6-19-2 after a spread-cover. Aside from an 8-3-1 ATS roll on Saturday, the Huskies are also stuck in several ATS slumps, including 0-4 overall, 1-5 after a SU win, 1-4 after a non-cover and 0-5 versus opponents with a winning record.
The Hoyas are riding “over” trends of 4-1 overall (all in non-conference) and 11-5 on Saturday. Likewise, the Huskies are on “over streaks of 21-6 overall (including 4-0 in the last four, all in non-conference), 15-4 on Saturday, 19-7 after a SU win and 8-2 after an ATS loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Marquette (7-2, 3-2 ATS) at (20) Wisconsin (6-2, 3-3 ATS)
The Badgers try to avoid a second straight loss to an instate rival when they welcome Marquette to the Kohl Center in Madison.
The Golden Eagles ripped off five straight wins to start the season, then dropped their next two to ACC opponents Florida State (57-56 as a one-point neutral-site favorite) and North Carolina State (77-73 as a 10-point home chalk). However, they rebounded with Tuesday’s 71-51 rout of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, cashing as a 14-point home favorite.
Wisconsin followed up consecutive upset victories over ACC powerhouses Maryland (78-69 in Maui as a two-point ‘dog) and undefeated Duke (73-69 as a 4½-point home pup) with a 79-46 blowout of Grambling last Saturday. However, the three-game win streak came to a screeching halt with Wednesday’s 88-84 overtime loss at Wisconsin-Green Bay as a five-point road favorite, the first time in 16 all-time meetings the Badgers lost to Wisconsin-Green Bay.
The SU winner has covered in all five of Marquette’s lined outings this season. Likewise, the winner is 5-0 ATS in Wisconsin’s last five games, and the underdog covered the number each time (4-1 SU).
These non-conference rivals meet every year, and Marquette has taken the last two meetings, including last year’s 61-58 home win, but the Eagles fell short as a 5½-point favorite. The underdog has covered in three straight, five of the last six and eight of the last 10 in this series. Also, the last three meetings were nail-biters decided by 4, 5 and 3 points. The Eagles haven’t won three straight against Wisconsin since taking four in a row from 1981-84.
The Golden Eagles have failed to cover in five of their last seven after an ATS triumph, while Wisconsin is in ATS droughts of 0-3-1 on Saturday and 3-9 against winning teams, but the Badgers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 after a non-cover and 4-1 ATS in their last five after a SU defeat.
The over is on runs of 27-13 for Marquette on the road, 20-7 for Marquette on Saturday and 4-0 for the Badgers overall. However, the under is 7-2 in the Eagles’ last nine battles with Big Ten schools and 18-6 in Wisconsin’s last 24 lined Saturday games. Finally, six of the last seven in this series have stayed below the total, with the one “over” coming two years ago at the Kohl Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(16) Texas A&M (8-1, 4-2 ATS) vs. New Mexico (9-0, 7-1-1 ATS)
(at Houston)
New Mexico looks to remain unbeaten and possibly crack the Top 25 when it hosts the 16th-ranked Aggies in a non-conference clash on a neutral floor at the Toyota Center in Houston.
Since tumbling to West Virginia 73-66 – but covering as an 8½-point underdog – in a preseason tournament in Anaheim, Calif., on Nov. 27 – Texas A&M has ripped off four consecutive victories (1-2 ATS in lined contests). Most recently, the Aggies topped Akron (74-62) and North Texas (75-65), but failed to cover as a 13- and 13½-point favorite in each game. The two non-covers followed a 4-0 ATS start to the season.
New Mexico remained perfect with an 82-78 victory at San Diego on Wednesday, holding off a furious Toreros rally in the final minute. The Lobos just missed as a 4½-point road favorite in that one, this after pushing as a 17-point home chalk in last Saturday’s 75-58 home win over New Mexico State. Prior to those two contests, New Mexico had been on a 9-0 ATS tear dating to last season. The Lobos are off to their best start since going 10-0 to start the 1995-96 campaign.
These schools last met in 1992, with New Mexico winning 71-69. The Lobos lead the series, 4-1.
Both these squads can fill the bucket. Texas A&M has scored 66 points or more in every game, including tallying 74 or more five times, and it is averaging 72.8 ppg overall (77.7 ppg last three contest) on 45.4 percent shooting. The Lobos have cracked the 80-point barrier in seven of their last eight contests and are putting up 82.1 ppg (46.2 percent shooting).
Despite failing to cover in its last two games, Texas A&M is still on positive ATS runs of 15-6 overall in lined action, 7-3 in non-conference play, 21-6 at neutral sites, 12-4 against winning teams, 4-1 on Saturday and 11-2 following a non-cover.
New Mexico is 23-7 SU and 20-9-1 ATS in its last 30 contests, including 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11, and the Lobos are on additional pointspread upticks of 27-11-2 out of conference, 4-1 against the Big 12, 8-3-1 on Saturday, 4-0 against winning teams and 34-16-2 after a SU win. The only negative: A 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven neutral-site affairs.
The over is on streaks of 4-0 for the Aggies on Saturday, 7-3 for the Aggies after a SU win and 31-15-1 for New Mexico after a victory, but the under is 4-1 in A&M’s last five overall, 4-1 in the Lobos’ last five on Saturday and 5-1-1 in the Lobos’ last seven on neutral courts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Kansas State (8-1, 4-2 ATS) at (18) UNLV (7-0, 4-1 ATS)
Kansas State attempts to extend a five-game winning streak and hand the Runnin’ Rebels their first defeat of the season in a non-conference matchup at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
The Wildcats have rebounded nicely from their first loss of the season – an 86-74 setback to Ole Miss in a preseason tournament in Puerto Rico on Nov. 20 – by ripping off five straight wins (3-0 ATS in lined contests). On Tuesday, Kansas State hosted Xavier and rolled 71-56 as a 6½-point chalk, as the Wildcats shot 44 percent from the field, held the Musketeers to 29.4 percent shooting (just 15 field goals) and had a 39-30 rebounding edge. However, K-State missed 13 of 17 three-point tries and misfired on 17 free throws in the win.
UNLV has been dodging bullets in its last three games, barely escaping with victories over then-No. 16 Louisville (76-71 at home), Arizona (74-72 in double-overtime on the road) and Santa Clara (66-63 on the road). In last Saturday’s victory at Santa Clara, the Runnin’ Rebels trailed 39-31 at the half, but outscored the Broncos 35-24 over the final 20 minutes. They won despite making just 41.4 percent of their shots and despite getting outrebounded 40-25.
These teams last met in the second round of the 1987 NCAA Tournament, with the Rebels prevailing 80-78, improving to 3-1 SU all-time against Kansas State. UNLV will serve as the home team in this contest despite the fact it is being played a few miles from their actual arena, the Thomas & Mack Center, which is being occupied by an annual rodeo.
Kansas State has scored at least 70 points in every game, including 80 or more six times, and it is averaging 79.8 ppg on 46 percent shooting. Meanwhile, prior to struggling at Santa Clara a week ago, UNLV had scored at least 74 points in its first six games, and Lon Kruger’s club is averaging 77 ppg (45.9 percent). Both teams play solid defense, with the Wildcats giving up 64.6 ppg (37.5 percent overall, 35.5 percent on three-pointers) and the Rebels yielding 68.2 ppg (37.7 percent overall; 29.9 percent on three-pointers).
The Wildcats are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 Saturday contests and 5-1 ATS in their last six after a spread-cover. On the downside, K-State is in ATS funks of 4-9-2 overall, 7-18-1 on the road, 2-6-2 after a SU win and 3-7-1 versus winning teams. UNLV is on pointspread rolls of 4-1 overall and 7-3 on Saturday, but it has failed to cash in six straight after a non-cover.
The “over” is on streaks of 4-1 for Kansas State overall, 4-1 for Kansas State on Saturday and 5-1 for the Runnin’ Rebels at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(5) Purdue (8-0, 4-3-1 ATS) at Alabama (6-2, 4-2 ATS)
The undefeated Boilermakers play their first true road game of the season when they travel to the Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa for a non-league showdown with Alabama.
Purdue is coming off Wednesday’s 86-62 rout of Valparaiso, falling whisker short of covering as a 24½-point home chalk. Seven of its eight wins this season have been double-digit routs, with the only competitive contest being a 73-72 victory over then-No. 10 Tennessee in the Paradise Jam championship game in St. Thomas, Virgin Islands. The Boilermakers have scored 73 points or more in six of their eight wins – topping 80 points four times – and have held every opponent but Tennessee under 66 points.
The Crimson Tide have rattled off three straight wins (2-0 ATS in lined action), most recently dumping Louisiana-Monroe 74-46 as a 16-point favorite last Saturday. Alabama dropped its season opener at home to Cornell (71-67 as a 6½-point favorite) but has since won four straight at Coleman Coliseum (2-0 ATS in lined play). The Tide have averaged 77.3 ppg in their six wins, but only 59 ppg in their two defeats.
These schools last met in the 2001 NCAA Tournament, with Alabama scoring an 85-77 overtime win as a 4½-point underdog.
Purdue has failed to cover in six of its last eight true road games, but is otherwise on positive ATS runs of 4-1-1 against SEC opponents, 4-1 on Saturday, 3-0-1 versus teams with a winning record and 4-1 after a non-cover. Alabama carries positive pointspread trends of 9-4-1 overall, 5-2 in non-conference play, 3-1-1 on Saturday and 8-3-1 against winning teams.
The under is on stretches of 7-3 for Purdue after a non-cover, 4-1 for ‘Bama overall, 5-1 for ‘Bama in non-league action and 6-0 for ‘Bama against the Big Ten.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
Phoenix (16-7, 12-10-1 ATS) at Denver (16-7, 13-10 ATS)
The Nuggets return to the Pepsi Center following a disappointing four-game road trip and will host the Suns, who have dropped four of six overall and four straight on the highway.
Phoenix is coming off Friday’s 106-103 victory over the Magic, pushing as a three-point home favorite. The Suns have lost four of their last six, with all four losses coming on the road. The Suns have failed to cover in five of their last six games, which follows a 4-0 ATS run.
Denver began its road trip with impressive wins at San Antonio last Saturday (106-99 as a four-point underdog) and Philadelphia on Monday (93-83 as a 6½-point chalk), but closed it with a pair of upset defeats at Charlotte on Tuesday (107-95 as a three-point favorite) and Detroit on Thursday (101-99 as a 7½-point chalk). On the bright side, George Karl’s team is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS at home, outscoring visitors by nearly 14 points per game (117.2-103.3) while shooting 50.3 percent from the field.
This is the first battle of the season between these squads, and the host has owned this rivalry of late, winning nine in a row (8-1 ATS). Last year, the Nuggets cashed in two of the three meetings – including a 119-113 overtime victory at the Pepsi Center as a three-point chalk. The last four clashes have been decided by a total of 22 points (all by seven points or less).
Going back further in this rivalry, the home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight and Phoenix has failed to cash in five straight trips to the Pepsi Center.
Phoenix has covered in four of its last five on Saturday, but is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight against opponents with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing on back-to-back nights. The Nuggets sport nothing but positive pointspread trends, including 20-8 at home, 36-16 against Western Conference foes, 13-6 versus the Pacific Division, 7-2 on Saturday, 25-10 against winning clubs and 4-1 when playing on one day of rest.
Despite their high-flying offense, the Suns are riding a plethora of “under” streaks, including 10-1-2 overall, 7-0-1 on the road and 5-0 on Saturday, but the over is 9-3 in their last 12 back-to-backs. Denver is on “under” rolls of 7-3 against the Pacific Division, 7-3 when going on one day of rest and 13-6 on Saturday.
Finally, seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams have hurdled the total, including the last four in a row in Denver.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
