Ben Burns | CFB Total Sat, 12/12/09 - 2:30 PM Ô‰
triple-dime bet 103 Army / 104 Navy Under 42.0 Bodog
Analysis: I'm playing on Army and Navy to finish UNDER the total. At first glance, this o/u number appears pretty low. Its climbed above the important 41 mark though and I feel that provides us with plenty of value. Navy's last game was back on 11/28, at Hawaii. Despite Ha‚waii being rather defensively-challenged," the Warriors limited Navy to just 17 points, including 0 in the second half. The Midshipmen did hold the Warriors to 24 points though, the fifth straight time that the held an opponent to less than 28 points. During that span, they allowed an average of 20 points. That includes holding Notre Dame to only 21 and Wake Forest to just 10. The UNDER was 3-1 in those games, the other didn't have a total. For the season, the Midshipmen are allowing a very respectable 21.3 per game.
The Black Knights were also solid defensively this season. They held North Texas to 13 points in their most recent game, a 17-13 victory way back on 11/21. That was the second straight game that they allowed 17 points or less. For the season, they allowed an average of only 22.4 points and just 310 total yards. Unfortunately, for Army fans, the offense wasn't very good. Army averaged only 16.5 points per game, gaining just 283.4 yards per game. Those numbers dip to 14.8 ppg (280 yards) on the road.
With both teams having had an extended break, note that Navy has seen the UNDER go 4-2 the last six times that it was coming off a bye. During the same stretch, Army has seen the UNDER go 5-1 when it was coming off a bye.
Looking at the recent series history and we find that each of the last three meetings finished below the total. Those games had combined scores of 40, 41 and 34 points. On a cool Philadelphia afternoon, with both teams chewing up the clock with frequent running plays, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. *9
PAID & CONFIRMED!!