Service Plays Saturday 12/05/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Double Dragon

Boise State -46.5
Florida -5.5
Texas -13
Hawaii +12.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Docs

4 Unit Play. #14 Take Illinois -3 over Fresno State (Saturday 12:30 pm Big Ten Network) Illinois 38, Fresno State 21.

4 Unit Play. #24 Take Rutgers -1 over West Virginia (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) Rutgers 20, WVO 17.

4 Unit Play. #26 Take Washington +7 over California (Saturday 6:30 pm FSN) Washington 31, Cal 28.

4 Unit Play. #34 Take Under 41 ½ in Florida vs. Alabama (Saturday 4 pm CBS) Florida 17, Alabama 14.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF DUNKEL

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 5

Game 309-310: South Florida at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 87.514; Connecticut 98.583
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 11; 57
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 7 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-7 1/2); Over

Game 311-312: West Virginia at Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 95.192; Rutgers 93.186
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 2; 41
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 1 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (+1 1/2); Under

Game 313-314: Fresno State at Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 90.088; Illinois 90.699
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 1; 54
Vegas Line: Illinois by 3; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+3); Under

Game 315-316: San Jose State at Louisiana Tech
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 63.983; Louisiana Tech 91.041
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 27; 50
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 23 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (-23 1/2); Over

Game 317-318: New Mexico State at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 60.488; Boise State 109.197
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 48 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Boise State by 47; 58
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-47); Over

Game 319-320: Arizona at USC
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 94.828; USC 104.504
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 9 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Arizona by 7; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-7); Over

Game 321-322: California at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: California 92.610; Washington 91.216
Dunkel Line: California by 1 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: California by 7; 58
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7); Under

Game 323-324: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 101.261; Pittsburgh 100.358
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 51
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2); Under

Game 325-326: Wisconsin at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 95.940; Hawaii 78.891
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 17; 57
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 12; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-12); Over

Game 327-328: Florida Atlantic at Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 71.846; Florida International 71.622
Dunkel Line: Even; 67
Vegas Line: Florida International by 2; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+2); Over

Game 329-330: Houston at East Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 96.249; East Carolina 93.289
Dunkel Line: Houston by 3; 75
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 68
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2 1/2); Over

Game 331-332: Florida vs. Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 114.056; Alabama 105.418
Dunkel Line: Florida by 8 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Florida by 5 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-5 1/2); Over

Game 333-334: Georgia Tech vs. Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 99.965; Clemson 100.787
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 1; 60
Vegas Line: Pick; 55
Dunkel Pick: Clemson; Over

Game 335-336: Texas vs. Nebraska
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 115.040; Nebraska 102.527
Dunkel Line: Texas by 12 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Texas by 14; 44
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+14); Over

 

[LLXC13]

YourProLocks

SATURDAY-
20 Dime : Arizona (+7)
25 Dime : East Carolina (+3) *Wait until the last minute because the public will be betting heavy on Houston. It might be possible to get this game at +3.5 or even 4!!*

30 Dime: Florida (-5.5)
40 Dime : Ga Tech (PK)

 

[LLXC13]

Larry Ness 25* Legend

Rutgers

 

[Sirduke]

Sirduke Sports

<TABLE border=1 cellSpacing=0 bgColor=#ffffff><CAPTION>Sirduke Sports
6-2 Last week in CFB
4-1 Attack Dog Plays for the year

</CAPTION><THEAD><TR><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Date</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Kick Off</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Club Rating</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Rotation</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Selection</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Rating</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>12/5/2009</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>12:00:00 PM</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Members</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>330</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>E. Carolina Pirates +2.5</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>7*</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>12/5/2009</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>12:30:00 PM</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Members</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>314</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Illinois Fighting Illini -3</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>7*</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>12/5/2009</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>4:00:00 PM</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Easy Winner</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>331</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Florida Gators-5</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>9*</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>12/5/2009</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>6:30:00 PM</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Members</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>322</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Washington Huskies +7</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>7*</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>12/5/2009</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>8:00:00 PM</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Attack Dog</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>336</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Nebraska Cornhuskers +14.5</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>11*</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>12/5/2009</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>8:00:00 PM</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Private Players</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>334</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Clemson Tigers +1</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>8*</TD></TR></TBODY><TFOOT></TFOOT></TABLE>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

VR

3* CFB gow is Rutgers -1

 

[SMITTYWANTSWINNERS]

Football Jesus Free Pick From Podcast: Take The Over In The FLA/BAMA Game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Maximus best bet of day: football
Rutgers -2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Teddy Covers

12/5/09 CFB Arizona +7 (319)
12/5/09 CFB Alabama +5.5 (332)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Norm Hitzges


NCAA
Double Plays

· Rutgers -1.5 vs WVU

· Alabama +5 vs Florida

Single Plays

· Arizona +7 vs USC

· Washington +7 vs California

· Cincy -1.5 vs Pittsburgh

· Clemson +1 vs Georgia Tech

· E. Carolina +2.5 vs Houston

· Nebraska +14 vs Texas

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

E. Carolina defends their CUSA championship in this game against the high-flying Cougars. While Houston's offense can certainly get it done, their defense is among the worst in the nation. When they are playing bad teams, it doesn't matter. But, when facing a legitimate team, they can struggle. In the second half of the season, Houston played two solid programs in Tulsa and UCF, both on the road as they are here. They lost one of those outright and were 0-2 ATS. So, while they have shown the ability to absolutely crush mediocre competition, and play well at home, there are questions when they head to the road vs. a formidable opponent. On the road this Cougars teams is allowing a ridiculous 36 points per game, so expect E. Carolina to have success when they have the ball. And, given that the Pirates defense has allowed just 18 points per game at home, they should also have success slowing down Case Keenum and the Houston offense. Houston is 0-6 ATS since last season when coming off back-to-back wins. Over the past three seasons they are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of a TD or less. Meanwhile, E. Carolina is 21-10 ATS as an underdog under Skip Holtz. I like the Pirates at home plus the points.

Game: W. Virginia at Rutgers (Saturday 12/05 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on W. Virginia +1.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

West Virginia opened as a 2.5 point favorite but now find themselves getting points in this game. I think the oddsmakers had it right the first time. The Mountaineers aren't playing for the Big East championship, but they are going Bowling. And, a win here will likely earn them a spot in a prestigious New Year's day game instead of something much less exciting. A 3-point loss to Cincinnati on November 13 is what kept them out of the Championship game, but we can look for positives in that game. The Mountaineers were double-digit dogs to a very powerful Bearcats team and it was a fight as they lost by just a field goal. West Virginia also lost to South Florida two games prior and Auburn earlier in the year. The only loss that was a bad one was vs. S. Florida. Otherwise they have won every game they were supposed to win this season and they aren't being asked to cover a big number here. They are 2-1 ATS this season as a dog and they are coming off a confidence-building win over Pittsburgh. West Virginia has won 15 straight vs. Rutgers and are 30-4-2 all-time in the series. I like the Mountaineers to get it done here.

Game: Florida vs. Alabama (Saturday 12/05 4:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 41 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The most anticipated game of the year is here with #1 Florida taking on #2 Alabama. This game may make the National Championship game pale in comparison. The winner gets to play in that game and the loser's hopes of a national title are gone. With the stakes so high, expect high-intensity and high nerves - both helping a play on the UNDER. Mark Ingram, Alabama's Heisman-hopeful running back injured his hip and was limited to just 30 yards and 1.9 yards per carry in Friday's game vs. Auburn. Oh, and these defenses are pretty good. Florida owns the #1 defense in the country and it's the reason they are here. This team has allowed a ridiculous 9.8 points per game! No opponent has scored more than 20 points on the Gators all season. Bama's defense is right there, ranked 3rd in the nation. They are 2nd in the country in points allowed, behind Florida at 10.8 points per game. The most this team gave up this season was 24 - and that was all the way back in early September in their opener. So, we have the top two defenses in the land, giving up a combined 20.6 points per game, and this total is set twice that high. Yes, these are good offenses, but not elite offenses. The defenses should dictate. The Tide are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 games vs. teams that rush for 200+ yards per game. High intensity and low-scoring is what I expect in this game.

Game: California at Washington (Saturday 12/05 6:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 58 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The fact that Cal is just a TD favorite over Washington here says a lot about both teams. California was ranked 12th in the nation to start the season and was supposed to challenge for the Pac-10 championship. But, after blowout losses to Oregon and USC, that was over. They come into this game however off strong performances vs. Arizona and Stanford, holding those teams to 44 combined points. Washington is 3-1 at home vs. conference foes, holding USC, Stanford, Arizona and Washington state to an average of just 20 points per game. Cal's offense has averaged just 23.8 points per game over their last four. Their last game vs. Stanford saw 62 points scored and under head coach Jeff Tedford, this team is 14-5 UNDER on the road coming off an OVER and 19-10 UNDER after a game in which 60+ points were scored. I expect this one to go UNDER the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nationwide phone football selections:

Super Power Seven: Connecticut
Top Play: Hawaii
Regular Plays: Fresno
West Virginia/Rutgers under

 

[LLXC13]

Stu Feiner
1,000,000 Dime Private Play
Rutgers ML

 

[LLXC13]

Dwayne Bryant
Under 47 Nebraska

 

[Stu Padasso]

<style></style>4* #315 SAN JOSE STATE over LOUISIANA TECH

One of the classier coaches in college football will close a solid career in this game, and one of the biggest SR classes will also be finishing their college careers. That is a setting for an excellent effort from the underdog, yet the markets want no part of Dick Tomey and his Spartans here; in fact they have been running this line up all week. Now it is in one of the pointspread ranges this is not supposed to happen, and it is plenty for us to get involved.The base pointspread concept behind this one is deceptively simple, but works year in and year out – in the final three games of the regular season, a team should never be favored by more than their scoring averaging when facing a conference opponent. It tells us that the marketplace is trying to use some side factors to make a team overcome a major weakness, and the fact that it is a league game insures that there is some integrity to the process. So what do we have here? Louisiana Tech is averaging 22.7 ppg through 10 lined games. The Bulldogs simply do not bring a lot of punch to the table, especially a passing attack that has been depleted at the WR spots since the start of the season, and rates 91th nationally in yards.But here is where it gets better – that struggling passing game is not the team’s biggest weakness. The defense has also faced major injury issues, and rates 96th against the Run, and 117th in Tackles for Loss. It does not get much better in the 12th game as some overworked bodies have to gut out four more quarters, especially for a LB crops that will only dress four players this week. If you can not score quickly on offense, and can not stop the opposition from running the ball and working clock, a blowout win is not easy to come by. And the mindset is not there either, with only two W.A.C. wins by more than this spread in Derek Dooley’s three seasons as head coach.Will San Jose bring it for Tomey? We will let veteran DT Liam Smith, one of 26 Spartans SR’s playing their last game, set the tone - <i>"We really want to send him out with a victory. We all care about him so much. We want to rally together and do something special."</i> Last week’s win over New Mexico State may have been ugly, but it brings some enthusiasm and a little momentum, and it is enough for them to keep this well under the high spread.

4* #322 WASHINGTON over CALIFORNIA

This is basically a bowl game for a much-improved Washington team that will bring both physical freshness and confidence to the table. This is a game <i>in between</i> “bowl” games for an over-rated California team that will compete to win, but not bring the kind of spark needed to get a margin. That means a prime upset opportunity for the Huskies, and the full TD being offered creates excellent value in a game that should go to the final possession.Washington has made some significant strides in Steve Sarkisian’s first season, and having a healthy Jake Locker was a luxury that was not there in 2008, which made the results worse than the program really was. Now in what may be Locker’s final college game they can let loose with every once of energy that they have, and that should be a significant stock – they had a bye two weeks ago, and merely coasted in that 30-0 whipping of Washington State last Saturday. They have gone 3-1 SU in Pac 10 play on this field, and note that despite losing to L.S.U. and Oregon on the scoreboard, they won those games by 11 first downs and 116 yards in that stat columns, but fell victim to a -3 turnover differential over those eight quarters, with two of the TO’s being returned directly for scores. At no time were they ever physically out-played in front of the home fans this autumn.As we have noted a couple of times this season, the Bears never deserved those lofty ratings back in August, and have not really been a disappointment – this is who they are. Yet their reputation never got lowered to the proper power rating level in the eyes of the marketplace, which explains why a team could be -16 on the scoreboard, and -205 in total offense, in Pac 10 play and still be this class of road favorite. They do not bring anything special physically that would call for domination in this matchup, and we do not believe the mental makeup will be there either – that win at Stanford in their last outing was a bowl-type atmosphere, and they will not have much turnaround time before playing their chosen bowl game, which could be in as early as three weeks. From all reports a win here does not improve their positioning for that next game in any way, so do not be surprised to see a flat effort that leaves them vulnerable for what really should not be considered an “upset”.

4* #329 HOUSTON/EAST CAROLINA Under

With this Total now having reached the 70 plateau, they clearly do not have both sides of this equation balanced properly. And that means outstanding value in a game that will not flow anywhere near the all-out track meet that is being called for.Yes, Houston is involved. But note that at this plateau even the Cougars would only be 5-6 to the Over in lined games. Now consider the other side. East Carolina did not play in a game that got within a TD of this Total all season, and in 26 games the L2 years the Pirates have seen a scoreboard top 70 one time. But even that one deserves an * - a game that fell 74 vs. U.T.E.P. LY was sitting on 60 in the final minute, with late scores on a TD pass with 0:51 remaining, and then an onside kickoff return on the next play. There has not been a legit game over those two seasons for Skip Holtz team that has approached this count.Now Holtz will be going out of his way to slow the tempo, and the pieces are in place to do that. On their own turf the Pirates will adapt a run-first philosophy that can command the ball for long stretches against a pliable Houston defensive interior, and while stopping the Cougars is one of the toughest challenges in college football this season, East Carolina brings a veteran defense that has eight SR starters and two JR’s. That means the savvy to play contain, not making the kind of mental mistakes that lead to big plays, and note that is has been a big part of why they are in this game in the first place – they rate 4th nationally in goal line defense.Also note that when the Conference championship is on the line it is all about winning the game, which means a higher level of conservatism in the second half than usual. It brings us plenty of breathing room in this favorable line range.

<style></style><style></style><style></style>4* #363 NEW ENGLAND over MIAMI

Let’s begin our N.F.L. week by locking in on this one, with 3’s available in the market as of Thursday afternoon. Those lines, of course, came when a major rumor was circulated this morning that Tom Brady was “questionable” for New England, and a game that had been as high as -6 began crashing. We will follow up later with more details on this game, with those “Bill Belichick off of a loss” numbers coming into play again, but for now here is the report filed by New England for the Thursday practice, which was more than 90 minutes <i>after</i> the mark surge took place –<b>DID NOT PARTICIPATE:</b>
RB Fred Taylor (ankle)
S Bret Lockett (groin).<b>LIMITED PARTICIPATION:</b>
WR Sam Aiken (hip)
LB Eric Alexander (groin)
TE Chris Baker (shoulder)
LB Tully Banta-Cain (shoulder)
NT Ron Brace (ankle)
WR Julian Edelman (forearm)
DE Jarvis Green (knee)
OT Nick Kaczur (ankle)
C Dan Koppen (knee)
OT Matt Light (knee)
RB Sammy Morris (knee)
G Stephen Neal (ankle)
LB Rob Ninkovich (knee)
OT Sebastian Vollmer (head)
DE Ty Warren (ankle)
LB Pierre Woods (groin).<b>FULL PARTICIPATION:</b>
QB Tom Brady (shoulder)
CB Shawn Springs (knee).We do not believe that we can be hurt by locking in now, and will go ahead with a full 4* play.ADDED INFO –OK, now the markets have had their fun and Brady’s status has is becoming well known, yet the books are still slow to trickle the game back up. That leaves outstanding value for the traditional handicap to get into play. In this week’s edition of <i>”Verities & Balderdash”</i> we note those awful problems the Dolphins are having in the fourth quarter of games, allowing a league high in points. It happens when you have an inexperienced QB and one of the weakest sets of WR’s in the league, which means trouble making things happen, and also when the defense is so young at those key CB positions. Only the Lions, Raiders and Browns have a wider gap between Yards Per Pass and Yards Per Pass Allowed, and with the Patriots now seeing the Wildcat for the fourth time in the last two seasons it will be on that Miami passing attack to make things happen. That is far more than Chad Henne can shoulder right now, especially since the defense will one again be hard-pressed to make stops – the Patriots rolled to 432 yards in that earlier home win, with Randy Moss and Wes Welker running free to the tune of 15 catches for 231. As for Belichick off of a loss here are the numbers – in his last 21 appearances in the role the Patriots are a sparkling 20-1 SU and 18-3 ATS, beating the spread by 271 points in the process. That is a significant margin of 12.9 per game over what the oddsmakers are projecting. The base premise fits awfully well here, especially since a loss would reduce their division lead to a single game, and they take care of business against a young team that can be exploited by the experience and savvy that they bring to the table.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Alabama
Georgia Tech
West Virginia

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BETTORS WORLD

3* Nebraska +14.5 over Texas

We'll admit to having a weakness for big dogs in huge games. But we won't play a game based solely on that. The game has to qualify using all of the same methods we use to handicap any other game. In this instance, Nebraska qualifies as we will detail below. Currently Sportsbook.com has Texas -14 with a total of 43.5.

One often overlooked aspect of handicapping a game like this, is determining whether one "program" can compete with another. Not just whether this years edition of a given team can compete, but can the program in general, compete. In other words, is one school, in this case, Nebraska, capable of recruiting the talent to compete on the same level as the talent Texas is able to recruit? You'll find plenty of matchups in college football where one program simply dominates another. Perhaps once every decade, the lesser program will pull an upset, but by and large, there is a talent gap that will rarely close.

Nebraska passes the talent test. We aren't referring to great Nebraska teams of 20 years ago either. We're referring to recent history. One need only look at the last few games between these programs to determine whether the talent is there to compete. These two last played in 2007 and 2006. In 2007 it was a Texas team that went 10-3 and a Nebraska team that went 5-7. Final score was 28-25 Texas. In 2006 it was a 22-20 final in favor of Texas in a year that saw Nebraska go on to lose 21-7 to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game. It was Texas 31-7 in 2003 and then another 3 point win for Texas in 2002, 27-24, to round out this decade.

In fact these two teams have played 8 times since 1996. If you had given Nebraska 14 points in each of those games, their record against the spread would have been 7-1. Now, some may say, what a team did in 1998 has very little to do with what a team does in 2009. But that's not entirely true. Again, what we're trying to determine, is whether Nebraska is capable if recruiting the talent to compete with Texas. Had Texas blown out Nebraska the last 5 times they played, we'd say that perhaps Nebraska can no longer compete. But as you can see from the examples above, that is not the case. 3 of the last 4 games were decided by a field goal or less.

Now on to this game. Again, we refer to talent levels, heck, this the Big 12 Title game. Texas is a great team and at 12-0 is playing for more than the Big 12 Title. The National Title is obviously on the line here. Nebraska has earned the right to play in this game. At 9-3, this is a fine team. Sure, no National Title for the Cornhuskers. Just a nice Bowl game. But wouldn't the Big 12 Title be sweet while at the same time putting a kink in the Longhorns plans.

Regular readers of our stuff know where we are going next. Common opponents. For these two teams, there were 6. Texas was 6-0 against those teams averaging 38 points per game while giving up 15. Nebraska was 5-1, averaging 21 points per game and, like Texas, giving up 15 on average. The total yards tells the same story. Texas has an easier time moving the ball and also held opponents to fewer total yards. Simple numbers can tell us simple things. The conclusion, Texas is a better football team. But are they 14 points better?

The yards per point numbers against these common opponents suggest the margin is closer than 14. Texas has an offensive number of 9.9. Fantastic. Means they had no problem moving the ball AND putting it in the end zone. Nebraska has a ypp offensive number of 12.9. Not as good as Texas, but 12.9 is a good number. Defensively, Texas has a 17.1 while Nebraska has a very nice 19.6. Since Texas held opponents to fewer total yards on average, those numbers suggest Nebraska did a good job in the red zone. They gave up a few more yards but managed to keep teams out of the end zone.

Subtracting the defensive numbers from the offensive numbers, Texas is a +7.2 while Nebraska is a +6.7. Fairly even, with Texas having the offensive edge and Nebraska having the defensive edge.

Bottom line here is that Texas is the better team, but perhaps not 14 points better. The numbers suggest the gap is closer than that. Past history, and the talent level of these teams over the years also suggests the gap is closer than 14 points. Lastly, when you factor in the motivation of playing live on National Television, in prime time before every football fan in the nation, with the Big 12 Title on the line and the chance to play spoiler, Nebraska becomes an attractive side.

No question Nebraska needs to keep it close all the way through if they want a chance to win it in the end. If they fall behind early they will be in trouble, as they aren't built to come from behind against an offensive power house like Texas. This needs to be similar to the Texas Oklahoma game for Nebraska to have a chance. In that game, Oklahoma held Texas to 16 points in a 16-13 loss.

We're looking for both defenses to come up big on Saturday Night as they have all year long. We can't pass up the points here. As of this writing there are some 14.5's on the board. That hook may come in handy.

3* Nebraska +14.5 over Texas.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Atlantic Coast Conference
Championship
Georgia Tech 31, Clemson 28
Big 12 Conference
Championship
Texas 33, Nebraska 16
Conference USA
Championship
EAST CAROLINA 36, Houston 35
Southeastern Conference
Championship
Florida 21, Alabama 16
Big East Conference
Cincinnati vs. PITTSBURGH: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
CONNECTICUT 34, South Florida 22
RUTGERS 20, West Virginia 16
Pacific-10 Conference
California 34, WASHINGTON 19
USC 32, Arizona 21
Sun Belt Conference
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 35, Florida Atlantic 33
Western Athletic Conference
BOISE STATE 56, New Mexico State 6
LOUISIANA TECH 32, San Jose State 12
FBS Non-Conference
ILLINOIS 31, Fresno State 29
Wisconsin 31, HAWAI'I 22
FCS Playoffs
Quarterfinals at campus sites
MONTANA 40, Stephen F. Austin 26
RICHMOND 24, Appalachian State 19
VILLANOVA 32, New Hampshire 21
William & Mary vs. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Gridiron Classic at Indianapolis, IN
Central Connecticut State 22, BUTLER 18
Southwestern Athletic Conference
TEXAS SOUTHERN 29, Southern 24