Freddy Wills
Baylor vs. Oklahoma (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Bonus Play
Pick: Point Spread: 6.0/-110 Baylor
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Baylor +6 1.1* Bonus Play The running game is big keys for both of these teams and I think this match up is pretty even across the board. Baylor is 0-12 at Oklahoma, but it's time to change that. This defense held Oklahoma to 237 yards last year and Oklahoma has struggled to beat teams who rank in the top 40 in yards/play on offense and defense. Both TCU & Kansas State fall into that category at 8/38 and 32/29 as truly balanced teams and Oklahoma lost at home to Kansas State. Baylor is ranked 23rd in offense and 11th on defense in yards/play. Just too much balance for Oklahoma to win this game by a TD. I am 6-0 on Teasers of the week's this year which you can find tracking for on monitorsportspicks. The value is there for this Baylor team at over a TD + FG at +11.. I'm going to tease it with Notre Dame +8.5 which will be a 4.4* play! Notre Dame and Arizona State face off in another big match up on Saturday. Both teams will face top tier QB's with next level talent. Both defenses have already faced the top 2 QB's in the nation. Arizona State got blown off the field by UCLA at home and Brett Hundley who had 355 yards 4 TD 0 INT"s and rushed for 72 yards on 8 carries, as they lost 27-62. Notre Dame meanwhile kept Jameis Winston in check 23/31, 273 yards 2 TD and 1 INT. Notre Dame can do the same with Taylor Kelly who is playing just his second game off his injury. Everett Golson is every bit as dangerous as Brett Hundley and I think he's got better players around him. Notre Dame is balanced ranking 30th in yards per play offense and 44th on defense. Arizona State's 50th ranked defense will have issues containing Golson and this Notre Dame offense especially coming off a win vs. Utah in OT. I'm probably going to parlay these two on the ML as I can see both road teams in position for a win.
West Virginia vs. Texas (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-110 Texas
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Texas +3.5 3.3* Play This is West Virginia's most challenging road game as they played Alabama on a neutral site. West Virginia's defense has been the real story of late. It can give certain teams fits, but not Texas as they have put up 47 and 45 points the last two years. Those Texas offenses were no better than this years version and I see more potential with Texas this year. Tyrone Swopes has now played great in 3 of their last 4 games. West Virginia at the end of the day is still an average defense ranking 70th in yards per play meanwhile Texas is ranked 13th. Texas has a real shot at a bowl game here, but this is the must win they need and I think they will get. West Virginia struggles with a physical running game that Texas will try to impose with play action and option running sprinkled in with Swopes. West Virginia is allowing 5.63 yards per carry on the road and have allowed big games against some bad running teams like Maryland who doubled their season average and Oklahoma State who ranked 98th but averaged 4.97 ypc. Texas is improving averaging 4.5 ypc over their last 3. You can tell this team is buying in.
Alabama vs. LSU (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-110 Alabama
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Alabama -6.5 4.4* play Both teams come off a bye for this highly anticipated match up. For me this match up is pretty easy as both teams are going to try to runt he ball before they pass. Alabama is more equiped to do it and stop it. LSU is a young team and they are getting credit for their win against Ole MIss who is more of a finesse team, and their 34-29 loss against Miss State. Alabama is angry they are not in the top 4 and they have had 2 weeks to think about it. Expect a big win for them and LSU is definitely suspect to that type of a loss because they are extremely young. We saw them get behind Wisconsin (very similar style to Alabama) 24-7, and Miss State (very similar style to Alabama) 31-10 and they lost to Auburn 41-7 on the road. Alabama will get up and they won't look back in my opinion. LSU is 94th in yards per carry defense. Against Auburn, MIss State and Wisconsin who are all similar in rushing to Alabama, LSU allowed over 6 yards per carry and ran for less than 4 yards per carry themselves. Alabama is the better run defense 3rd in the country, and has the better passing game to balance it out. Crimson Tide's QB Blake Simms has a 172 QB rating, 15 TD/ 3 INT and is averaging 10.2 yards per passing attempt. Amari Cooper will not allow LSU to try to stop the run and this pass defense that has been solid is vulnerable to big passing plays. Against Miss State and Auburn they allowed 11 plays for over 20 yards and that's something that shows up in the tape for Nick Saban. LSU does not have to worry as much about LSU passing it since they run it 67% of the time behind a veteran offensive line. Alabama though is the best run defense this group has faced and I already mentioned how they struggled against Wisconsin, Auburn and Miss State rushing for <4 ypc and 150 yards in all 3.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -3.5/-112 Michigan State
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Michigan St -3 -120 5.5* POD This is my play of the day. A lot is on the line here for both teams and the Big Ten. I think it could come down to a field goal for Michigan State who has shown issues late in games against Oregon and Nebraska. However, I like their chances here at home. Again similar to the LSU/Alabama match up both teams want to establish the run as they are both in the top 20 in rushing play % at over 60%. Both teams are capable of stopping and running the ball which I will get to in a second. Before looking at that you have to see if either team can have any sort of balance with their passing game to keep a defense honest and Michigan State has the better chance. Connor Cook and the offensive line is very much under rated. He's got a 163 QB rating and does not make mistakes. The offensive line is ranked 7th in pass protection and he's only been sacked 1.1% of his drop backs at home. Ohio State can't claim the same ranking 84th in pass protection, but allowing a whopping 12.12% sacked % on the road which should have MIchigan State's defense licking their chops as they rank 8th in pass rush. Now JT Barret has looked great this season, but against who? The two decent defenses he's faced he's struggled with 2 TD passes and 5 INT's and the offense put up 17 pts and 21 pts in regulation against Penn State and VA Tech. The loss to VA TEch looks worse and worse considering how they have played since and that defense is not stopping the run any more. Speaking of the run.. On paper Ohio State is ranked 18th in run defense and Michigan State is ranked 30th, but the Spartans have faced 6 teams in the top 60, 4 of which are in the top 25. Ohio State meanwhile just 2 in the top 75. So the numbers are way off and Ohio State's home/away splits are about 1 yard worse on both sides. Michigan State's rushing game is also better ranking 18th at 5.5 yards per carry and have faced 3 teams ranked in the top 60 rushing defense. For Ohio State they rank 23rd, but only 1 opponent in the top 60 in rushing defense which was Penn State. Ohio State managed just 293 yards in 2 OT's vs. the Nittany Lions. The other opponents are an average 94th vs. the run. Not to be taken for granted is the fact that Mich State has an extra week to prepare and were 3-0 in that scenario last year. They also have arguably the nation's best punter in Mike Sadler.
Baylor vs. Oklahoma (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Bonus Play
Pick: Point Spread: 6.0/-110 Baylor
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Baylor +6 1.1* Bonus Play The running game is big keys for both of these teams and I think this match up is pretty even across the board. Baylor is 0-12 at Oklahoma, but it's time to change that. This defense held Oklahoma to 237 yards last year and Oklahoma has struggled to beat teams who rank in the top 40 in yards/play on offense and defense. Both TCU & Kansas State fall into that category at 8/38 and 32/29 as truly balanced teams and Oklahoma lost at home to Kansas State. Baylor is ranked 23rd in offense and 11th on defense in yards/play. Just too much balance for Oklahoma to win this game by a TD. I am 6-0 on Teasers of the week's this year which you can find tracking for on monitorsportspicks. The value is there for this Baylor team at over a TD + FG at +11.. I'm going to tease it with Notre Dame +8.5 which will be a 4.4* play! Notre Dame and Arizona State face off in another big match up on Saturday. Both teams will face top tier QB's with next level talent. Both defenses have already faced the top 2 QB's in the nation. Arizona State got blown off the field by UCLA at home and Brett Hundley who had 355 yards 4 TD 0 INT"s and rushed for 72 yards on 8 carries, as they lost 27-62. Notre Dame meanwhile kept Jameis Winston in check 23/31, 273 yards 2 TD and 1 INT. Notre Dame can do the same with Taylor Kelly who is playing just his second game off his injury. Everett Golson is every bit as dangerous as Brett Hundley and I think he's got better players around him. Notre Dame is balanced ranking 30th in yards per play offense and 44th on defense. Arizona State's 50th ranked defense will have issues containing Golson and this Notre Dame offense especially coming off a win vs. Utah in OT. I'm probably going to parlay these two on the ML as I can see both road teams in position for a win.
West Virginia vs. Texas (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-110 Texas
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Texas +3.5 3.3* Play This is West Virginia's most challenging road game as they played Alabama on a neutral site. West Virginia's defense has been the real story of late. It can give certain teams fits, but not Texas as they have put up 47 and 45 points the last two years. Those Texas offenses were no better than this years version and I see more potential with Texas this year. Tyrone Swopes has now played great in 3 of their last 4 games. West Virginia at the end of the day is still an average defense ranking 70th in yards per play meanwhile Texas is ranked 13th. Texas has a real shot at a bowl game here, but this is the must win they need and I think they will get. West Virginia struggles with a physical running game that Texas will try to impose with play action and option running sprinkled in with Swopes. West Virginia is allowing 5.63 yards per carry on the road and have allowed big games against some bad running teams like Maryland who doubled their season average and Oklahoma State who ranked 98th but averaged 4.97 ypc. Texas is improving averaging 4.5 ypc over their last 3. You can tell this team is buying in.
Alabama vs. LSU (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-110 Alabama
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Alabama -6.5 4.4* play Both teams come off a bye for this highly anticipated match up. For me this match up is pretty easy as both teams are going to try to runt he ball before they pass. Alabama is more equiped to do it and stop it. LSU is a young team and they are getting credit for their win against Ole MIss who is more of a finesse team, and their 34-29 loss against Miss State. Alabama is angry they are not in the top 4 and they have had 2 weeks to think about it. Expect a big win for them and LSU is definitely suspect to that type of a loss because they are extremely young. We saw them get behind Wisconsin (very similar style to Alabama) 24-7, and Miss State (very similar style to Alabama) 31-10 and they lost to Auburn 41-7 on the road. Alabama will get up and they won't look back in my opinion. LSU is 94th in yards per carry defense. Against Auburn, MIss State and Wisconsin who are all similar in rushing to Alabama, LSU allowed over 6 yards per carry and ran for less than 4 yards per carry themselves. Alabama is the better run defense 3rd in the country, and has the better passing game to balance it out. Crimson Tide's QB Blake Simms has a 172 QB rating, 15 TD/ 3 INT and is averaging 10.2 yards per passing attempt. Amari Cooper will not allow LSU to try to stop the run and this pass defense that has been solid is vulnerable to big passing plays. Against Miss State and Auburn they allowed 11 plays for over 20 yards and that's something that shows up in the tape for Nick Saban. LSU does not have to worry as much about LSU passing it since they run it 67% of the time behind a veteran offensive line. Alabama though is the best run defense this group has faced and I already mentioned how they struggled against Wisconsin, Auburn and Miss State rushing for <4 ypc and 150 yards in all 3.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -3.5/-112 Michigan State
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Michigan St -3 -120 5.5* POD This is my play of the day. A lot is on the line here for both teams and the Big Ten. I think it could come down to a field goal for Michigan State who has shown issues late in games against Oregon and Nebraska. However, I like their chances here at home. Again similar to the LSU/Alabama match up both teams want to establish the run as they are both in the top 20 in rushing play % at over 60%. Both teams are capable of stopping and running the ball which I will get to in a second. Before looking at that you have to see if either team can have any sort of balance with their passing game to keep a defense honest and Michigan State has the better chance. Connor Cook and the offensive line is very much under rated. He's got a 163 QB rating and does not make mistakes. The offensive line is ranked 7th in pass protection and he's only been sacked 1.1% of his drop backs at home. Ohio State can't claim the same ranking 84th in pass protection, but allowing a whopping 12.12% sacked % on the road which should have MIchigan State's defense licking their chops as they rank 8th in pass rush. Now JT Barret has looked great this season, but against who? The two decent defenses he's faced he's struggled with 2 TD passes and 5 INT's and the offense put up 17 pts and 21 pts in regulation against Penn State and VA Tech. The loss to VA TEch looks worse and worse considering how they have played since and that defense is not stopping the run any more. Speaking of the run.. On paper Ohio State is ranked 18th in run defense and Michigan State is ranked 30th, but the Spartans have faced 6 teams in the top 60, 4 of which are in the top 25. Ohio State meanwhile just 2 in the top 75. So the numbers are way off and Ohio State's home/away splits are about 1 yard worse on both sides. Michigan State's rushing game is also better ranking 18th at 5.5 yards per carry and have faced 3 teams ranked in the top 60 rushing defense. For Ohio State they rank 23rd, but only 1 opponent in the top 60 in rushing defense which was Penn State. Ohio State managed just 293 yards in 2 OT's vs. the Nittany Lions. The other opponents are an average 94th vs. the run. Not to be taken for granted is the fact that Mich State has an extra week to prepare and were 3-0 in that scenario last year. They also have arguably the nation's best punter in Mike Sadler.
OC Dooley:
2 UNIT” EARLY EVENING ESPN “FIRST HALF” INFORMATION WAGER (Florida State -12’ in the OPENING HALF at home versus Virginia in a 6:30 eastern kickoff televised on ESPN): Due to a weak league schedule which has led to constant money-line inflation Florida State despite a number-two overall ranking along with the nation’s longest current winning streak has been a disaster for investors (2-6 ATS) but last time out they finally broke through in a 42-31 road triumph at Louisville. That game followed a season-long habit of starting slow offensively and head coach Jimbo Fisher is seeking change in that category. The Seminoles have scored more “second half” points in 6 of 7 games versus Division I-A competition and in the last pair of outings they actually trailed versus both Louisville and Notre Dame when walking into the lockerroom at halftime. Superstar Jameius Winston’s quarterback rating in the “second half” this season (172.03) is substantially higher compared to the “opening” half (138.72). Reportedly Florida State has run more “up tempo” and no-huddle in recent PRACTICE sessions to help set the tone and I expect a very productive OPENING half. The Seminoles have special incentive to get off to an early start after the coaching staff reminded the players of the school’s most recent clash with Virginia (November 2011) when the Cavaliers traveled to Florida State and pulled off a stunning outright upset
2 UNIT” EARLY EVENING ESPN “FIRST HALF” INFORMATION WAGER (Florida State -12’ in the OPENING HALF at home versus Virginia in a 6:30 eastern kickoff televised on ESPN): Due to a weak league schedule which has led to constant money-line inflation Florida State despite a number-two overall ranking along with the nation’s longest current winning streak has been a disaster for investors (2-6 ATS) but last time out they finally broke through in a 42-31 road triumph at Louisville. That game followed a season-long habit of starting slow offensively and head coach Jimbo Fisher is seeking change in that category. The Seminoles have scored more “second half” points in 6 of 7 games versus Division I-A competition and in the last pair of outings they actually trailed versus both Louisville and Notre Dame when walking into the lockerroom at halftime. Superstar Jameius Winston’s quarterback rating in the “second half” this season (172.03) is substantially higher compared to the “opening” half (138.72). Reportedly Florida State has run more “up tempo” and no-huddle in recent PRACTICE sessions to help set the tone and I expect a very productive OPENING half. The Seminoles have special incentive to get off to an early start after the coaching staff reminded the players of the school’s most recent clash with Virginia (November 2011) when the Cavaliers traveled to Florida State and pulled off a stunning outright upset
Chris James Sports
Notre Dame vs. Arizona State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -2.0/-115 Arizona State
UL Monroe vs. Appalachian St (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -4.5/-115 Appalachian St
UCLA vs. Washington (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6.0/-115 UCLA
Ohio State vs. Michigan State (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 55.5/-115 Under
Notre Dame vs. Arizona State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -2.0/-115 Arizona State
UL Monroe vs. Appalachian St (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -4.5/-115 Appalachian St
UCLA vs. Washington (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6.0/-115 UCLA
Ohio State vs. Michigan State (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 55.5/-115 Under
Bonus Play
SAN JOSE STATE (+2) over Fresno State
10:30 p.m. ET San Jose State comes in a bit undervalued after two straight losses to Nevada and Colorado State, but the Spartans had more total yards than their opponent in both of those games and deserved a better fate. This is a team that has been a money-maker when pitted against a losing team, going 49-28 ATS in that situation and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 road games. There are real problems at Fresno State, as seen by its recent three-game losing streak. The once-proud Bulldogs defense is allowing 36.8 points per game and 236 yards rushing per game. Those numbers tell us they shouldn't be favored over anyone right now, so we'll happily grab the points.
