Service Plays Saturday 11/8/14

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Game of the Day: Ohio State at Michigan State

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans (-3.5, 56)

The biggest game of the year in the Big Ten is set to take place Saturday night when No. 6 Michigan State hosts No. 11 Ohio State, putting the winner on course for a berth in the Big Ten Championship game. The Buckeyes have won 20 consecutive regular-season conference games and the Spartans 13, but Michigan State still holds bragging rights thanks to its 34-24 win against Ohio State in last season’s Big Ten title game. The victory erased a nation-leading 24-game winning streak by the Buckeyes.

Rain and temperatures in the low 40s are forecasted for Saturday night in East Lansing and if that holds true, the team with the better ground game could have the edge. Michigan State is led by running back Jeremy Langford, who has rushed for 841 yards and 10 touchdowns and comes in with five straight 100-yard rushing efforts. Ohio State is sturdy against the run, however, allowing 118.6 rushing yards per game - 18th in the FBS.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC. LINE: Michigan State -3.5

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at MSU -3.5 and has yet to move from that point. The opening total of 58.5 has dropped to 56 as of Friday afternoon.

INJURY REPORT: Ohio State - CB Armani Reeves (Doub-Head) Michigan State - LB Mylan Hicks (Prob-Arm), DL James Kittredge (Ques, Lower body)

WEATHER REPORT: Rain is expected to fall throughout the game, but it is not suppose to amount to much. The game will also be played in cold weather as temperatures will sit around the 37°F.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Buckeyes lost at home to the Spartans last year, and they have a chance to avenge that loss this week. The Spartans are still the front-runner to win the Big-10, and a dark horse playoff contender." - Jesse Shule

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The winner is firmly in the driver's seat to win the Big Ten and qualify for the playoff. We opened this game at Michigan State -2 with some juice. Sharps moved the spread moved to -3.5 within the first hour, and that's what we're currently dealing. The public has followed as we have around 70 percent of our handle on the home team. The under has been hammered by both parties as well, dropping from 63.5 to 56. We'd love to see Ohio State win a shootout, but as I said before, I think the Sparties come out on top." - John Lester, Senior Lines Manager.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS, 7-1 O/U): Ezekiel Elliott continues to be No. 1 on the depth chart at running back for the Buckeyes, but freshman Curtis Samuel has put his name in the hat as a viable No. 2 option and possibly more. He didn’t get a carry in a double-overtime win against Penn State two weeks ago but was handed the ball nine times last weekend against Illinois and came through with 63 yards and two touchdowns. J.T. Barrett continues to improve at quarterback, totaling 20 touchdown passes and three interceptions in the last six games - all victories.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS, 7-1 O/U): The Spartans did not play last week, which gave them a few extra days to relish their 35-11 victory against Michigan on Oct. 25. During the break, quarterback Connor Cook divulged that he planned to return for his senior year next season, eliciting a sigh of relief from Michigan State fans. That’s not such good news for Ohio State, which was torched by Cook's 304 passing yards and three touchdowns in last season’s title game.

TRENDS:

*Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
*Over is 13-3 in Buckeyes last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Over is 9-1 in Spartans last 10 games overall.
*Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 60.76 percent are backing Michigan State with 53.1 percent on the over.
 
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StatFox Super Situations

CFB | FLA ATLANTIC at NORTH TEXAS
Play Against - A home team (NORTH TEXAS) in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )

CFB | WISCONSIN at PURDUE
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (PURDUE) terrible passing team (<=5.6 PY/Att.) against a good passing defense (5.6-6.4 PY/Att.)
97-93 since 1997. ( 51.1% | 0.0 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | 0.0 units )

CFB | OHIO ST at MICHIGAN ST
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (OHIO ST) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off a home win
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
 
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Memphis (-7 1/2 in college football) on Friday and likes Notre Dame on Saturday.

The deficit is 933 sirignanos.
 
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EZWINNERS

EZ's Plays For Saturday

Three college football selections on my card for Saturday. Best of luck!

-EZ


5* 6 POINT TEASER SELECTION

(161) Alabama Crimson Tide -1/2 & (193) Oregon Ducks -2

In this teaser I'm basically asking for Alabama and Oregon to just win their road games this week. I normally love playing LSU as a home underdog at night, but I think Alabama wins this game straight up. They may or may not cover but I'm just looking for the win. The Alabama defense should be able to stop the LSU run game which Ole Miss could not when they lost as a road favorite two weeks ago. In the other game I believe the Ducks are starting to roll. Utah is a tough opponent, but they have also been a very lucky team this season. Just look at their win over USC. Oregon disposed of Stanford last week and the Utes play a similar physical style of as the Cardinals. Utah just doesn't have the playmakers to pull of the upset here in my opinion.


4* (125) Michigan Wolverines -1

Michigan head coach Brady Hoke's job is on life support and this week's opponent should allow Hoke to hand on to his job for at least one more week. This game is critical as Michigan must win two out of their last three games to become bowl eligable and their last game of the season is at Ohio State. The Wolverines should also have some confidence coming into this game after last week's 34-10 win against Indiana. Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner threw for two touchdowns and he got help from running back Drake Johnson who rushed for 108 yards and two touchdowns himself as the Wolverine defeated the Hoosiers for the 19th straight time. Michigan has also dominated this Northwestern team winning thirty out of the last thirty four meetings. Michigan has a top ten defense and they should feast on the struggling Wildcat offense that is 90th in the nation in passing yards, 107th in rushing yards and just 116th in points scored. Lay this short number with the Wolverines.


3* (195) Kansas State Wildcats +7 (-$120)

Just like Ole Miss and Auburn last week, this matchup is most likely an elimation game for the national championship. TCU is the team in the Big XII that is getting all of the attention, while Kansas State has been flying under the radar. The Wildcats only loss came against Auburn in a game that K-State could have easily won. The Wildcats were not out classed by Auburn in any way and I think they match up well with TCU. Last week was the first time this season that the Frogs did not cover the Vegas spread. TCU is coming off of an emotional win as they needed five West Virginia turnovers to escape Morgantown last week with a one point win in a game that they trailed all the way. The Frogs could have a hard time starting this game with the same intensity after that big win and they are laying signigicant points against a very good team. Kansas State knows how to play on the road. The Wildcats have already beat Oklahoma in Norman this season and since 2010 head coach Bill Snyder's K-State team is 11-1 against the spread as a road underdog. Take the points.
 
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River City Sharps

Being based in Louisville, KY, there is probably no team that we have a better pulse on than the Louisville Cardinals. There was plenty of disappointment last Thursday as the Cards effort came up short against Florida State. While they did lose the game, one real positive that came out of the game was their ability to move the ball and score against the Seminoles defense. While Louisville’s defense has been pretty solid all season, they didn’t quite hold up in the second half against the FSU onslaught. Now we find the Cards travelling to Boston for a matchup with the much improved Boston College Eagles. BC comes into this game on a high following their road victory at Virginia Tech, but we think this is a story of matchup problems for the Eagles. You see, the Eagles have virtually a non-existent passing game and count of QB Tyler Murphy to run out of several different looks. The problem is that even though Louisville will be missing Lorenzo Mauldin this week, the Cardinals have a really stout rushing defense and running against this team has been a losing proposition for most teams. We expect BC to struggle establishing their running game and the Louisville secondary has been really opportunistic this year. On offense, the Cards are not going to test the BC rush defense as much as trying to go over the top with the tight ends and Parker on the edge. As for the trends, consider that the Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss and an amazing 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams with a winning home record. We also like the extra couple of days Petrino gets to prepare for this game and believe you will see the Cardinals best road performance of the season. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – LOUISVILLE CARDINALS -3
 
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Jimmy Boyd

NCAAF

5* Iowa -1

5* Under 45 Florida/Vanderbilt

3* Under 46 Alabama/LSU

3* Michigan State -3.5
 
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Fsotb - fat side of the bacon

SAT:
> 164 OU-5***
> 130 PURDUE +17.5***
> 134 SYRACUSE +3.5***
> 152 TEXAS +3.5 **
> 172 UNLV +6.5***
> 138 B.C.+3.5 *
 

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My subscription to leiner is up. Hope someone can pick him up this month. Thanks
 
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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Saturday

4* Best Bet = IOWA
3* = MICHIGAN
3* = UTEP
2* = Georgia Southern
2* = Georgia Tech
 
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King Creole | CFB TotalSat, 11/08/14 - 3:30 PM
triple-dime bet191 Notre Dame / 192 Arizona St. OVER 59.5 Hilton
Analysis:
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
A very BIG one in terms of the College Football playoff rankings as #8 takes on #9. Each team with one loss. Loser is out of the Playoff picture. The winner potentially advances to the Top Six. It's also a rematch of last season's meeting in South Bend in which the Irish won 37 to 34. The OU line in that one was 63.5. That's about 3.5 points higher than this Saturday's game. Both teams combined for 850+ offensive yards. This week's game line opened at a head-scratching 55 points. The first initial line move was a sharp one upward... to 58 points. As of Thursday night, the line was already up to 60-60.5 points. You'll want to get your play in asap.

Both teams come in with 450 > YPG offenses. Notre Dame's offensive scoring is UP a full TD from last year when they averaged 27 ppg. Credit that to QB Everett Golson. He's led the Irish to a 35.0 ppg average. That includes 459 total offensive YPG (#30 in the country)... and 289 passing YPG. Those numbers have gone up significantly in the last month, as well. Since the low-scoring home upset win over Stanford four weeks ago (in a driving rainstorm), the Irish have turned it on. Their last three games have seen Notre Dame put up 519 yards, 470 yards, and 535 yards on offense. Point totals in those games: 50 pts... 27 pts... and 49 pts (42.0). That's another full TD per game higher than their season-to-date averages. With a vulnerable Arizona State defense facing him, Golson could very well pick apart the Sun Devils thru the air.

On defense, the Irish are at their weakest point of the season. In a one-week span, they had to prepare for the OPTION (last week vs Navy) to the SPREAD (this week vs Arizona State). That's two totally different styles of play. And they'll have to do it WITHOUT their 'Quarterback of the Defense'. That would linebacker Joe Schmidt. His impact (or loss of it this week) on defense cannot be understated. He was the point-man for new defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder. And now, he's OUT for the season with a fractured ankle. Notre Dame witnessed how explosive Arizona State's offense was (and IS) in last year's Shamrock Series game in Texas Stadium. So the shootout potential in this game just went up significantly.

Arizona State has an offense that's even better, statistically. The Sun Devils are ranked #23 overall at 484 ypg. Slightly better in PASSING offense as well (291 passing YPG = #21). Quarterback Taylor Kelly has worked out the kinks from his 6-game absence. Jaelen Strong is an extreme handful. If QB Kelly can establish a rhythm early, this Sun Devil offense can really open things up. Especially with a backfield threat as versatile as DJ Foster... who has as many 20+ yard plays receiving (9) as he does rushing (9). In fact, this game has as much big play potential as any on the board on Saturday. Foster's 18 plays of 20+ yards are the most in the Pac 12 Conference... and tied for third-best in the entire nation. We're talking MULTIPLE big plays in this one.

On defense, we acknowledge that ASU has gone 0-3 O/U in their last three games... allowing only 10, 10, and 16 points. But one must factor in the opposition in those three games. They were against three of the worst offenses in the Pac 12 (and in the nation). Stanford (ranked #76 nationally in offense)... Utah (ranked #92 nationally)... and Washington (ranked #101 nationally). This week, it'll be an offense ranked in the Top 30, and a PASSING offense in the Top 25. The Sun Devils are 16-5 O/U after allowing < 20 pts in their last game... 20-7 O/U after rushing for 200+ yards... and 4-0 O/U in their last four vs Independent opponents. Against good passing teams (averaging 270 > passing YPG), Arizona State has gone a perfect 3-0 O/U this year.

So this one has big-time shootout potential. Poll-posturing-playoff-positioning potential... running-up-the-score potential... and tick-in-your-face Revenge potential from last year's 3-points loss. A final score very similar to last year’s game (37 to 34). Last team with the ball wins?

Pick Made: Nov 6 2014 4:32PM PST
 
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FantasySportsGametime

SATURDAY FOOTBALL

5000* Play Ohio State +3.5 over Michigan State (TOP NCAA PLAY)

Ohio State has won 20 consecutive games when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 points and they have won 12 consecutive road games. Ohio State has won 20 of the last 21 games vs. conference opponents and they have won 19 of the last 21 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game.


5000* Play LSU +6.5 over Alabama (TOP NCAA PLAY)

LSU has won 9 of the last 10 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they have won 19 of the last 21 home games. LSU has won 15 of the last 17 games coming off a game where 24 points or less were scored and they are only allowing an average of 8 points on defense in home games this season.

============================================

50* Play West Virginia -3 over Texas (BONUS NCAA PLAY)
50* Play Arizona State -2 over Notre Dame (BONUS NCAA PLAY)
50* Play Utah +8 over Oregon (BONUS NCAA PLAY)
 

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