Dr.Bob :
Best Bets
(106) ***Ohio (-3) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars up to -4
(108) *Ball State (+3 ½) 1-Star at +3 or more
(111-112) *UNDER (44) Clemson at Wake Forest, 1-Star Under 43 or higher
(115) ***Utah State (-6) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars up to -8, 1-Star up to -9
(124) **Minnesota (+1 ½) 2-Stars at -1 or better, 1-Star up to -2 ½
(125) *Michigan (-1 ½) 1-Star at -2 ½ or less.
(160) ***Auburn (-21 ½) 3-Stars at -23 ½ or less, 2-Stars at -24
(169-170) **UNDER (62 ½) Washington State at Oregon State, 2-Stars Under 62 or higher, 1-Stars Under down to 61
(197) **San Jose State (+3 at -120) 2-Stars at +1 or more 1-Star at pick or -1.
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob
Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
***Ohio (-3) 37 Buffalo 26
Wed Nov-05-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 106 Over/Under 54.0
I like Ohio and the over in this game, partially for the same reason. That reason is the return of Derrius Vick at quarterback for the Bobcats. Vick was injured against Idaho in week 4 and returned in week 9 in a loss at Western Michigan and he’s a huge upgrade over backup JD Sprague, who has completed only 48% of his 193 passes while averaging just 5.1 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Vick, meanwhile, has completed 58 of his 96 passes (60.4%) and he’s averaged 7.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB. Ohio is averaging only 19 points per game and they did have trouble scoring while Vick was in the game, but that had more to do with randomness (like 4 fumbles lost against Kent, which led to 17 points despite 437 yards of offense) than Vick’s play. Buffalo has a horrendous pass defense that gives up a lot of big plays and has allowed 8.1 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.2 yppp against an average team and Vick lit up the two bad pass defenses he faced, combining for 330 yards on just 30 pass plays against Kent State and Idaho. That’s a small sample size but Vick has certainly proven to be much better than Sprague and my math model calls for Ohio’s offense to score a good number of points in this game.
Buffalo’s attack is led by veteran quarterback Joe Licata, who has been average on a compensated yards per pass play basis (7.1 yppp against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB) but has thrown 9 interceptions in 8 games. The Bulls’ rushing attack is not good (4.7 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp) and overall Buffalo’s attack rates at 0.2 yards per play worse than average on a national scale. The Bulls should have good success moving the ball in this game against a sub-par Ohio defense that’s allowed 5.9 yppl to a collection of teams that would average just 5.4 yppl against an average team. I actually rate the Bobcats at 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively with the return of defensive back Devin Jones, who missed most of the last 4 games with a knee injury (the pass defense was better with him playing the first 5 weeks). The math model projects 426 yards at 5.7 yppl for Buffalo in this game, which is projected to net the Bulls 26 points.
The key to this game is how well Ohio converts their 480 projected yards into points, as the Bobcats have had trouble doing that. However, part of the reason they’ve not scored as much as they should is due to untimely fumbles and the Bobcats’ -8 fumble margin is 90% random and is not likely to continue. Vick has only thrown 2 interceptions on 96 passes and even Sprague didn’t throw picks in a pretty conservative offense (the team has just 5 interceptions in 9 games). So, I don’t expect Ohio to be negative in turnovers in this game, which should help them convert those yards into points. My math model gives Ohio a 60% chance of covering at -3 points and that’s still a profitable 55% chance of covering at -4 points. I’ll take Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -4 points.
The Over is also a good play here, as my math model predicts 62.5 total points. However, the over has value for pretty much the same reason that Ohio is a good play – because Vick upgrades the Bobcats’ offense significantly. So, playing the Over here as a Best Bet would be redundant. However, I will consider the Over (54) a Strong Opinion at 55 or fewer points.
***Utah State (-6) 32 WYOMING 17
Fri Nov-07-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 115 Over/Under 45.5
Utah State has a very good defense and the Aggies became an underrated team when Darell Garretson took over for an ineffective and injured Chuckie Keeton in the middle of their week 3 game against Wake Forest. I had a couple of Best Bet winners with Utah State with Garretson at quarterback (their upset win as a 21 point dog at BYU and an 18 point win over Air Force) but Garretson was injured against Colorado State and 3rd string quarterback Harrison played at the same low level that Keeton played at. Harrison suffered a knee injury late against UNLV in week 9 and it looks like the quarterback position may be back in good hands with freshman Kent Myers, who has completed 17 of 20 passes while averaging 9.8 yards per pass play. That’s obviously a small sample, but it’s doubtful that a bad quarterback would complete 17 of 20 passes and Myers was very accurate playing high school ball in Texas, where he completed 71% of his passes with 42 touchdown passes against just 5 interceptions. I realize that there is a big difference between high school and college but accuracy is accuracy and it translates well at the next level. Obviously, I don’t expect Myers to continue to complete 85% of his passes but he should be able to play at or close to the level that Garretson played at and I’d favor Utah State by 14 points in this game even if he played at the average level of the Utah State quarterbacks. I think he’ll be even better than that and it doesn’t even take a special quarterback to move the ball against a sub-par Wyoming defense that’s allowed 6.2 yards per play this season to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team. The unit is even worse lately with multiple injuries to key defensive players, including LB Mark Nzeocha, who is their best defensive player, and 2 starting defensive backs (and a 3rd, Jesse Sampson, is questionable). My math model had Utah State moving the ball well even before adjusting for Wyoming’s injury situation and the Aggies should score around 30 points barring an unforeseen breakout of turnovers.
Utah State’s defense continues to play consistently well, as the Aggies have allowed between 14 and 24 points in 8 consecutive games while yielding just 4.6 yards per play for the season (against teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Wyoming’s loss of star RB Shaun Wick (705 yards at 6.3 ypr) doesn’t seem as painful after Brian Hill’s big game last week at Fresno and Hill is now averaging 6.4 ypr – so Wyoming’s rushing attack still rates at 0.5 yards per rushing play better than average. However, Utah State is very good defending the run, allowing just 3.8 yprp this season (to teams that would average 4.7 yprp against an average team). The Aggies are also good against the pass and Wyoming’s mediocre pass attack is projected to be limited to a modest 5.7 yards per pass play in this game while the rushing attack projects at 4.7 yprp. Overall, the Cowboys’ attack is projected to be held to 317 yards at 5.2 yppl, which will make it tough to keep up with a Utah State offense seemingly once again in capable hands.
The math model liked Utah State here before adjusting for an improved quarterback situation for Utah State and for Wyoming’s banged up defense and I’ll take Utah State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -8 and for 1-Star up to -9.
***AUBURN (-21 ½) 48 Texas A&M 17
Sat Nov-08-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 160 Over/Under 67.0
I mentioned in my analysis of the Texas A&M vs UL Monroe game last week that coach Kevin Sumlin was making a big mistake in going with Kyle Allen at quarterback, as Allen’s compensated numbers heading into last week’s game were significantly worse than the good numbers posted by Kenny Hill (7.3 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback). Allen was even worse than I thought he’s be, as he completed only 13 of 28 passes for 106 yards and was sacked 4 times while averaging just 2.55 yards per pass play. UL Monroe does have a good pass defense but 2.55 yppp would be bad against any defense and overall this season Allen has averaged only 4.9 yppp on his 70 pass plays while facing teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback. I upgraded his rating to assume that his yards per completion will be at the team average of 12.1 ypc rather than the 10.3 ypc that he’s averaged on his 36 completions (in 66 attempts for just 54.5% completions), but Allen would still rate as a below average quarterback. Auburn’s defense is 1.1 yppp better than average defending the pass, as the 6.4 yppp that they’ve allowed have come against a collection of very good quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.5 yppp against an average defensive team. The Tigers are also good defending the run (4.3 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yprp) and that unit should have no trouble limiting Texas A&M’s attack with Kyle Allen at quarterback. Kenny Hill was suspended for 2 games prior to the UL Monroe game, so there is no chance that he’ll come off the bench to rescue his team.
While the Aggies offense struggles with Allen behind center the Auburn attack should thrive against a mediocre A&M defense that’s allowed 5.9 yards per play this season to FBS teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). Auburn’s offense is averaging 39 points on 499 yards at 7.0 yards per play against a schedule of teams that is 0.6 yppl better than average and they’ll surpass those numbers at home against a mediocre defense. In fact, my math model projects 573 yards at 7.7 yards per play, which should result in between 45 and 50 points. The Aggies, meanwhile, are projected to gain just 337 yards at 4.6 yppl and that was with the assumption that Allen will improve his yards per completion from 10.3 ypc to the team average of 12.1 ypc, which is a generous assumption. A&M is projected to score just 17.5 points. In addition to the tremendous line value (my math would favor favored Auburn by 25 points even without making the adjustment for Allen at QB for A&M) the Tigers also apply to a very good 145-73-4 ATS big home favorite situation and are trying to impress the playoff selection committee to keep their place in the top 4. I’ll take Auburn in a 3-Star Best Bet at -23 ½ points or less, for 4-Stars at -21 and for 2-Stars at -24 points.
**MINNESOTA (+1 ½) 26 Iowa 18
Sat Nov-08-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 124 Over/Under 43.5
The last games played by these two 6-2 teams appears to have affected the perception of these teams in the eyes of the betting public. Iowa is coming off their best game of the season, a 48-7 romp over Northwestern, while Minnesota suffered a 24-28 upset loss at Illinois (as a 3 ½ point favorite) prior to last week’s bye. Minnesota actually outplayed the Illini in that loss with a 411 yards at 5.8 yards per play to 272 yards at 4.3 yppl advantage but lost due to a -2 in turnover margin. Iowa’s win last week was thoroughly impressive but the Hawkeyes haven’t been that much better than an average team overall this season and one good game does not suddenly indicate that that has changed and in fact the Hawkeyes are traditionally worse after a win than they are after a loss (more on that below).
For the season Iowa has averaged only 5.4 yards per play while facing teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl against an average team, so it’s not likely that they’ll repeat their good performance from last week against a good Minnesota defense that’s yielded just 5.0 yppl this season a schedule of teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team. I did boost Iowa’s run rating due to the emergence of freshman back Akrum Wadley, who ran for 106 yards on 15 runs in his first action of the season. However, that’s just one game and Iowa’s 5.3 yards per rushing play as a team last week is certainly not overly impressive. Even with the 0.3 yprp boost to account for the chance that Wadley actually is better than the other Iowa backs (if he actually was then why has he been on the scout team all season?) the math still only projects the Hawkeyes to gain 345 yards at just 4.8 yards per play.
Iowa’s defense has also been good this season, as the Hawkeyes have allowed just 5.0 yppl and 20 points per game. However, they were fortunate to face Purdue with Etling at quarterback and to play most of their game against Indiana with the Hoosiers pathetic backup quarterback after Nate Sudfeld was injured. Iowa is still 0.3 yppl better than average defensively after adjusting for opposing quarterbacks faced but Minnesota’s offense is 0.2 yppl better than average (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and the Hawkeyes’ slight advantage is negated by Minnesota’s home field advantage. The Gophers are projected to average 5.55 yards per play in this game, which is much better than Iowa’s 4.8 yppl projection – although the Hawkeyes are expected to run 13 more plays from scrimmage. Overall the edge from the line of scrimmage is about even but Minnesota has a significant edge in special teams and the low number of pass plays expected from the Gophers’ run-oriented attack takes away from Iowa’s penchant for picking off passes. These are two pretty even teams, and I actually rate Minnesota as a bit better overall, so the line value certainly favors the Gophers at home and Iowa hasn’t been as good historically after a win as they’ve been after a loss under Kirk Ferentz. Last week’s big win for Iowa was after a loss the previous week and the Hawkeyes are now 41-16-1 ATS after a loss since 2000. However, Ferentz has a losing spread record following a win and his team is just 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games the week after beating a conference opponent. It’s not likely that Iowa plays their best football again this week and if both teams play at their normal level then Minnesota is likely to win this game. I’ll take Minnesota in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 1-Star up to -2 ½ points.
**UNDER (62 ½) – OREGON STATE (-7 ½) 33 Washington State 21
Sat Nov-08-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 170 Over/Under 62.5
It’s pretty common knowledge that Washington State’s 4 year starting quarterback Connor Halliday is through for the season after breaking his leg last week against USC but the odds on this game have been adjusted for that. The reason for playing the under in this game really doesn’t have much to do with Halliday’s injury, as backup Luke Falk did a decent job against the Trojans on his 60 pass plays (5.5 yards per pass play against a USC defense that would allow 5.6 yppp on the road to an average quarterback). That’s not too much worse than Halliday’s median rating this season but I do expect the Cougars to have far less success moving the ball than normal against a very good Oregon State pass defense that’s yielded just 4.9 yards per pass play this season (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.9 yppp against an average defense. Oregon’s State’s bad run defense (5.5 yards per rushing play allowed) is minimized by the fact that Washington State throws the ball 80% of the time – and Oregon State’s defense 0.6 yppl better than average against a team that throws 80% of the time rather than being 0.3 yppl better than average, which they are overall this season because teams can run the ball against the Beavers. That match up gives us some of our value on the under.
Another source of value comes from the return of Washington State’s best cornerback, freshman Charleston White, who has defended 12 passes in just 6 starts this season but missed the last two games against Arizona and USC due to a concussion. Washington State’s pass defense was exploited with White out of the game and the Cougars have allowed 9.4 yards per pass play in the 3 games that White did not start (Rutgers in week 1 was the other) against quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.9 yppp against an average defensive team (that’s 2.5 yppp worse than average). In stark contrast, the Cougars have been only 0.7 yppp worse than average in the 6 games that White has started (6.6 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.8 yppp) and that rating is 0.6 yppp better than WSU’s season rating. That adjustment also contributes to our under.
The final reason that the Under has value is that Washington State’s defense seems worse than they actually are, not only because of the 3 games that White didn’t start, but because the Cougars have given up 8 return touchdowns this season, 6 on turnovers and 2 on kickoff returns, which happened on back-to-back kickoffs against Cal (so, it’s not like it’s a consistent problem). My math model had predicted 60 total points before making adjustments for Halliday being out and White coming back to shore up the Cougars’ secondary. My math model now projects just 54 total points and I’ll go UNDER 62 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet and for 1-Star down to 61 points.
**San Jose State (+3 at -120) 33 FRESNO STATE 26
Sat Nov-08-2014 at 07:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 197 Over/Under 59.5
I don’t understand why Fresno State is favored. The Bulldogs have 3 wins this season and none of them are impressive. They beat FCS team Southern Utah, won by 11 on the road against a bad New Mexico team and their 24-13 win over a solid San Diego State team was one of the two games in which the Aztecs had to play their horrible backup quarterback Nick Bawden, who completed has completed just 35% of his passes and rates at 4.4 yards per pass play worse than an average quarterback. San Jose State’s wins haven’t been all that impressive either (North Dakota, UNLV and at Wyoming, who Fresno just lost at home by 28 points last week) but all the Spartans’ losses have been against solid teams (Auburn, Minnesota, Nevada, Navy, and Colorado State). Fresno, meanwhile, has lost to UNLV and Wyoming. Not only has San Jose State’s 3-5 record been against a schedule that is 2 points tougher than the schedule that Fresno State is 3-6 against, but the Spartans have been much more impressive from the line of scrimmage.
San Jose State has outgained an average schedule of opponents 437 yards at 5.5 yards per play to 364 yards at 5.8 yppl and their overall line of scrimmage rating (which combines total yards and yards per play and adjusts for schedule strength) is +2.8 points. Fresno, meanwhile, has faced a schedule that is a couple of points below average and the Bulldogs have been outgained 416 yards at 5.5 yppl to 499 yards at 6.6 yppl and have a line of scrimmage rating of -11.6 points. That rating is skewed by last week’s horrendous result against Wyoming (316 yards at 5.3 yppl to 694 yards at 9.9 yppl) but the Bulldogs are still well below average from the line of scrimmage even after dampening the affect of outliers.
The Bulldogs should have good success running the ball in this game against a San Jose State defense that is soft against the run (0.5 yards per rushing play worse than average) and very good against the pass (1.5 yards per pass play better than average) but Spartans’ quarterback Joe Gray, who completes 66% of his passes, should have an easy time throwing the ball against a horrible Fresno State defense that’s allowed 63% completions and 8.4 yards per pass play (against quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.8 yppp against an average defense). San Jose State has a significant advantage from the line of scrimmage and even their bad special teams (Fresno is 2.8 points better in that category) shouldn’t keep the Spartans from winning this game. I’ll take San Jose State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 1-Star down to -1.
*BALL STATE (+3 ½) 34 Northern Illinois 30
Wed Nov-05-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 108 Over/Under 62.0
Northern Illinois is a good offensive team (6.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average attack) but the Huskies are horrible defensively (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average just 5.0 yppl against an average defense), which is why they’re 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. Ball State, meanwhile, has won consecutive games as underdogs, winning at Central Michigan as a 9 ½ point dog and beating Akron by 14 on this field 11 days ago. The Cardinals’ offense has been more efficient since switching to Ozzie Mann at quarterback and they’ve scored 32 points or more in all 3 of his starts. The Ball State offense is still worse than average on a compensated yards per play basis but they’re projected to control the ball and rack up 484 total yards at 5.9 yards per play tonight. Northern Illinois is more of a big play offense, so while the Huskies are projected to average more yards per play (6.5 yppl) they are expected to have fewer total yards (440 yards) since Ball State runs a possession oriented short passing attack that has worked well with Mann at the controls. My math model favors Ball State in this game and the Cardinals apply to a very good 61-19-1 ATS home momentum situation. I’ll take Ball State in a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
*UNDER (44) - Clemson (-21) 27 WAKE FOREST 7
Thu Nov-06-2014 at 04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 112 Over/Under 44.0
Wake Forest has the worst offense in the nation, averaging just 14.8 points on 214 yards per game at 3.4 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team). Clemson has a great defense that has held their last 4 opponents to an average of 9 points while allowing only 4.7 yppl in 7 games against FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team (adjusted for facing Florida State without Winston and facing Syracuse without Hunt at QB). My math model projects only 151 total yards and 7 points for Wake Forest in this game, which is certainly not unreasonable given the 102 yards at 1.8 yppl that they tallied against the only other really good defense they faced (Louisville). Wake Forest does have a solid defense that is 0.2 yppl better than average and has allowed just 24.6 points per game, which is impressive given how their offense generally puts the defense in bad field position. Clemson’s attack is 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season and has been 0.6 yppl worse than average with Cole Stoudt at quarterback instead of talented freshman Deshaun Watson, who has been out in recent weeks. Watson is available to play tonight if needed but Stoudt will start and I imagine the coaching staff would like Watson to be able to have one more week off – although I’ve calculated Clemson’s offense ratings for this game with Watson getting 25% of the snaps. With that assumption the Tigers are projected to gain 434 total yards but at just 5.2 yppl and overall the math favors the Tigers by 19 ½ points with a total of just 34 points. Normally that much of a difference between my prediction and the line would be enough to make the Under a higher rated Best Bet but Clemson is night and day better with Watson at quarterback and I’m concerned that Watson might play more than I expect him to. The line is still reasonable even if Watson played the entire game at the high level he was performing at before injuring his hand (I would get 40 total points if that is the case, so the Under is still the way to go and I will go UNDER 43 points or higher in a 1-Star Best Bet (Strong Opinion at less than 43).
*Michigan (-1 ½) 24 NORTHWESTERN 15
Sat Nov-08-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 125 Over/Under 41.0
Michigan applies to a very good 114-42-3 ATS statistical matchup indicator and I don’t mind going against a bad Northwestern team that will have a very tough time moving the ball in this game. The Wildcats are averaging just 19 points and 325 yards per game at 4.4 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and my math model projects just 274 total yards at 4.0 yppl against a very good Michigan defense that’s yielded only 21.7 points and 306 yards per game at 4.8 yppl (to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. Overall, Michigan is solidly better than average from the line of scrimmage, with their defense being 0.9 yppl better than average and their offense being average with Devin Gardner at quarterback. The Wolverines are projected to gain just 335 yards at 5.2 yppl in this game against a Wildcats’ defense that is 0.3 yppl better than average and overall Michigan has a solid edge from the line of scrimmage. Michigan’s problem has been turnovers, as the Wolverines’ quarterbacks have a history of throwing a lot of interceptions under coach Brady Hoke and Gardner has thrown 11 picks this season on just 203 pass attempts. Northwestern doesn’t throw many interceptions and the Wolverines’ defense has intercepted just 3 passes all season, so it’s very likely that the Wolverines will be negative in turnover margin. My math model projects a turnover difference of 1.1 in favor of the Wildcats but also favors Michigan by 5.2 points despite the turnover disadvantage. The math actually isn’t strong enough to merit a Best Bet but Michigan applies to that 114-42-3 ATS
