Dave Malinsky
6* Top of the Ticket
REASON FOR PICK: 6* #352 MEMPHIS over TULANE
We are not sure if any team in the nation has fallen more during the course of the season that Bob Toledo’s Tulane squad, with injuries taking a huge toll on both sides of the ball. And with clear evidence that there is nothing left in the tank, we see a blowout here as a fresh and hungry sides takes full advantage of one that can not wait to get the season over with.
Here is Toledo’s own take - "It's very, very difficult for us right now, to say the least. So you just have to appeal to everyone's personal pride. Nobody wants to be embarrassed, but that's about it." What causes a coach that reach that level? Since their bye week in mid-October the Green Wave are on an ugly 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS run in which they have been out-scored by at least 17 points in every game. And note just how awful the 17-point win was, since it came at home vs. a struggling U.A.B. squad. But Toledo sees things that the oddsmakers can not when they digest the scoreboard and statistics – he fully realizes that almost every one of those games could have been much worse.
The run started with a 42-17 home loss to Rice on October 25th, a game that was 35-0 for the Owls at halftime, before David Bailiff coached the second half as a true gentleman. The following week it was a 35-10 loss, but cover, as +28 at L.S.U., a game in which Tulane could not reach 100 yards either running or passing, getting the only touchdown, and hence the ATS cover, on an interception return. Next was a 42-14 drubbing at Houston that was 42-7 in the third quarter, before the Cougars pulled way back on the reigns. Then the aforementioned home loss to U.A.B., when the Blazers pounded the Green Wave in the trenches to the tune of a 272-98 rushing advantage, their season high on the ground. And as bad as the scoreboard looked in last week’s 56-7 loss at Tulsa, the Golden Hurricanes were going out of their way to try to keep the game close, running the ball 58 times while only throwing 13 passes. That was from an offense that threw at least 25 passes in all other games, but even in simply running the ball on almost every play they still carved out 489 yards overland, at 8.4 per attempt. Get the picture? There is nothing left for a Tulane team that did not have all that much to begin with.
Contrast this with a Memphis team that comes in both fresh, and with a sense of purpose. The Tigers have only played twice over the last four weeks, and after a frustrating home loss to Central Florida last week they still need this one to become bowl eligible. And in acknowledging that a 6-6 record would not guarantee a trip, Tommy West has noted that how the team wins this week will also matter. The U.C.F. loss was a case of bad timing and bad bounces – a blocked punt and a fumble return for a touchdown put them down 14-0 early, and in his first game back following an injury that had sidelined him for a month QB Arkelon Hall was too rusty to turn it around from behind. But the Tiger defense made a solid account, holding the Knights to 10 first downs and 194 yards. We can count on a similar defensive effort here to shackle the punchless Green Wave, while Hall should be much sharper after a full week of practice, and he can work with that deep WR corps to make big plays against a defense that no longer brings any kind of pass rush. This one breaks wide open early, but instead of letting up like recent Tulane opponents have, we can call for Memphis to play hard the rest of the way.