John Ryan
North Carolina at Duke
Prediction: Duke
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Duke - AiS shows an 80% probability that Duke will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. AiS shows a 90% probability that Duke will not gain more than 250 net passing yards. Note that UNC is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 52-22 ATS for 70% since 1992, Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points poor rushing team gaining 100-140 RY/game against a team with an average rushing defense allowing 140-190 RY/game and after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.
Florida at Florida St
Prediction: Florida St
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Florida State - AiS shows an 82% probability that FSU will lose this game by 16 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 32-8 ATS for 80% since 1997. Play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a good rushing D allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game and after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. Here is a second and very simple system that has gone 29-6 ATS for 83% Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a road win. Fine tuning this system to include only Saturday games produces 90% ATS winning percentage. FSU is also a strong 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team with a win percentage of > 75% since 1992. Bowden is a solid 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games versus good teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since being the HC of FSU, whihc is a long, very long, time. Take FSU.
Southern Miss at SMU
Prediction: SMU
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on SMU - AiS shows an 82% probability that SMU will lose this game by 15 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 42-11 ATA for 79% since 2002. Play against road favorites team with a turnover differential of +0.75/game or better facing a team with a differential of -0.75/game or worse, in conference games. Here is a second system that has gone 74-33 ATS for 69% since 2002. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points in conference games with an experienced QB returning as starter. SM has ripped off 3 straight wins and covered all three as well. Note, however, that SM is just 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. SMU HC JIm Jones is in a solid role noting that he is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off 2 straight losses against conference rivals in all games he has coached since 1992. Take SMU