Joe Gavazzi
UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK …Penn St. (+11)
Penn St. at Michigan St. (-11) 3:30 ET ABC TV
“With need, you bleed!” That is the theme for so many favored teams today, as they need a victory for either Bowl eligibility for a spot in a championship playoff game or for Final Four inclusion. The latter is such the case for this Michigan St. team. The Spartans must win this contest to earn their ticket to the Big 10 Championship game next week against Iowa. That does not mean they need to do so by a double digit margin, nor is a 100% emotional effort guaranteed after the Spartans’ massive upset win over Ohio St. last week that knocked the Buckeyes from the ranks of the unbeaten. That win came without starting QB Cook (shoulder). It came rather as a result of a running game (outrushed the Buckeyes 203-86) and a defense that allowed Ohio St. just 132 total yards in the shocking (17-14) win as 14 point underdog. Lest you doubt the Spartans are for real, consider the 34-4 SU record in the last 3 seasons. Should QB Cook fail to make post, QB Terry will again be in his place. Penn St. enters with great hunger off consecutive losses and with (34-10) revenge. Last week, the Lions suffered a LHG defeat to Michigan (28-16). The prior game, it was a heartbreaking (23-21) last second loss at Northwestern. In the loss to the Spartans last year, Penn St. was far more competitive than the final score, losing the yardage battle only 298-233. Combined with the Penn St. motivation is the Lions’ near Super D status which finds them allowing just 19 PPG, only 315 YPG and just 4.6 YP play. Along with their emotional edge in this game, it should be enough for the Nittany Lions to keep this game within the double digit impost.
UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK …Penn St. (+11)
Penn St. at Michigan St. (-11) 3:30 ET ABC TV
“With need, you bleed!” That is the theme for so many favored teams today, as they need a victory for either Bowl eligibility for a spot in a championship playoff game or for Final Four inclusion. The latter is such the case for this Michigan St. team. The Spartans must win this contest to earn their ticket to the Big 10 Championship game next week against Iowa. That does not mean they need to do so by a double digit margin, nor is a 100% emotional effort guaranteed after the Spartans’ massive upset win over Ohio St. last week that knocked the Buckeyes from the ranks of the unbeaten. That win came without starting QB Cook (shoulder). It came rather as a result of a running game (outrushed the Buckeyes 203-86) and a defense that allowed Ohio St. just 132 total yards in the shocking (17-14) win as 14 point underdog. Lest you doubt the Spartans are for real, consider the 34-4 SU record in the last 3 seasons. Should QB Cook fail to make post, QB Terry will again be in his place. Penn St. enters with great hunger off consecutive losses and with (34-10) revenge. Last week, the Lions suffered a LHG defeat to Michigan (28-16). The prior game, it was a heartbreaking (23-21) last second loss at Northwestern. In the loss to the Spartans last year, Penn St. was far more competitive than the final score, losing the yardage battle only 298-233. Combined with the Penn St. motivation is the Lions’ near Super D status which finds them allowing just 19 PPG, only 315 YPG and just 4.6 YP play. Along with their emotional edge in this game, it should be enough for the Nittany Lions to keep this game within the double digit impost.
CAPPSTERS
Today we are on Northwestern -3 1/2 over Illinois in NCAAF. While the Wildcats probably don't want to talk about it, they could make history this year. A win over Illinois, and a win in their bowl game, would give them 11 wins which would be the most in Wildcat history. It all starts on defense where Northwestern is one of the best giving up just 16 ppg. On offense, Justin Jackson will once again be asked to anchor a run game that has been very effective this year. Don't look for lots of scoring in this game, but look for Northwestern to win.
Today we are on North Carolina -4 over NC State in NCAAF. The Tar Heels must make sure they don't look past this game to Clemson coming up. North Carolina is on a 10 game win streak, and much of that is due to a defnese that is 5th in the Nation with a +11 turnover rate and is only giving up about 18 ppg. On offense the Tar Heels are putting up over 40 ppg, and today they should be using Hood to control the rushing attack, while their offensive line should dominate.
It would be very hard not to be on Clemson -18 over South Carolina today. South Carolina has lost 5 of 6 since the coaching change, and in 3 games has given up over 300 yards on the ground. Clemson comes in #1 in the Nation, and should have little trouble. Clemson ranks 5th in total defense, while ranking 14th in total offense. The offense should have a field day today. Not only has Watson completed 70% of his passes for 300 yards and 26 TD's, but Clemson should also be able to run through a pourous defense.
In NCAAB take St.Louis/Louisville over 134 1/2
Today we are on Northwestern -3 1/2 over Illinois in NCAAF. While the Wildcats probably don't want to talk about it, they could make history this year. A win over Illinois, and a win in their bowl game, would give them 11 wins which would be the most in Wildcat history. It all starts on defense where Northwestern is one of the best giving up just 16 ppg. On offense, Justin Jackson will once again be asked to anchor a run game that has been very effective this year. Don't look for lots of scoring in this game, but look for Northwestern to win.
Today we are on North Carolina -4 over NC State in NCAAF. The Tar Heels must make sure they don't look past this game to Clemson coming up. North Carolina is on a 10 game win streak, and much of that is due to a defnese that is 5th in the Nation with a +11 turnover rate and is only giving up about 18 ppg. On offense the Tar Heels are putting up over 40 ppg, and today they should be using Hood to control the rushing attack, while their offensive line should dominate.
It would be very hard not to be on Clemson -18 over South Carolina today. South Carolina has lost 5 of 6 since the coaching change, and in 3 games has given up over 300 yards on the ground. Clemson comes in #1 in the Nation, and should have little trouble. Clemson ranks 5th in total defense, while ranking 14th in total offense. The offense should have a field day today. Not only has Watson completed 70% of his passes for 300 yards and 26 TD's, but Clemson should also be able to run through a pourous defense.
In NCAAB take St.Louis/Louisville over 134 1/2
StatFox Super Situations
NBA | NEW ORLEANS at UTAH
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=46% on the season, poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game
130-72 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.4% | 50.8 units )
2-5 this year. ( 28.6% | -3.5 units )
NBA | BROOKLYN at CLEVELAND
Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Saturday games
72-61 over the last 5 seasons. ( 54.1% | 42.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.0 units )
NBA | LA LAKERS at PORTLAND
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing against a terrible team (<=25%)
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
NBA | NEW ORLEANS at UTAH
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=46% on the season, poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game
130-72 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.4% | 50.8 units )
2-5 this year. ( 28.6% | -3.5 units )
NBA | BROOKLYN at CLEVELAND
Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Saturday games
72-61 over the last 5 seasons. ( 54.1% | 42.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.0 units )
NBA | LA LAKERS at PORTLAND
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing against a terrible team (<=25%)
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
StatFox Super Situations
CBB | SIU EDWARDSVL at BUTLER
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points after 3 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
CBB | SOUTHERN UTAH at E KENTUCKY
Play On - Any team (SOUTHERN UTAH) poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=45% on the season against opponent red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making >=50% of their shots
131-182 since 1997. ( 41.9% | 33.5 units )
CBB | UNC-WILMINGTON at E TENN ST
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 playing only their 3rd game in a week, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team
89-45 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
CBB | SIU EDWARDSVL at BUTLER
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points after 3 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
CBB | SOUTHERN UTAH at E KENTUCKY
Play On - Any team (SOUTHERN UTAH) poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=45% on the season against opponent red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making >=50% of their shots
131-182 since 1997. ( 41.9% | 33.5 units )
CBB | UNC-WILMINGTON at E TENN ST
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 playing only their 3rd game in a week, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team
89-45 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
StatFox Super Situations
CFB | LA LAFAYETTE at APPALACHIAN ST
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (APPALACHIAN ST) good team outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 40 RY/G), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
CFB | ALABAMA at AUBURN
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (ALABAMA) outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games
89-48 over the last 10 seasons. ( 65.0% | 0.0 units )
8-7 this year. ( 53.3% | 0.0 units )
CFB | LA LAFAYETTE at APPALACHIAN ST
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (APPALACHIAN ST) good team outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 40 RY/G), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
CFB | ALABAMA at AUBURN
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (ALABAMA) outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games
89-48 over the last 10 seasons. ( 65.0% | 0.0 units )
8-7 this year. ( 53.3% | 0.0 units )
