.
10 Game of the Year Side Play · [182] North Carolina State Wolfpack
Alleghenies Analysis Sat Nov 28th, 2015 3:30pm EST
* Guaranteed play option selected.
Dr Bob Hoops
**PITTSBURGH (-12 ½) over Kent State
01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 520
Pittsburgh has been a consistently good teams under head coach Jamie Dixon but the Panthers fell towards mediocrity last season thanks to a significant drop in the level of their defense, which fell from top 30 status to 201st in compensated efficiency. The Panthers are back playing good defense and the offense has improved from last year’s #30 ranking. I expect good things from Pitt this season and my ratings favor the Panthers by 15 ½ points over Kent State, who is 0-3 ATS so far this season. I get 17 points if I use this year’s games only, adjusted for variance, so the line value appears to be on the side of Pitt, who also apply to a 112-44-7 ATS early season angle that plays on teams playing their 4th (or more) consecutive game at home. I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 1-Star up to -15.
**FORDHAM (-8 ½) over Manhattan
02:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 588
Fordham is an improved team under first year head coach Jeff Neubauer and the Rams apply to a 93-32-5 ATS home momentum situation based on their recent good play (won their last 3 by an average of 23 points). I realize that Fordham is not going to continue to make 40% of their 3-point shots or hold opponents to 29% 3-point shooting but they’re still likely to be a few points better than last year’s team. Manhattan, meanwhile, lost their best two players from last year’s team, which hurts the Jaspers on both sides of the court. Emmy Andujar and Ashton Pankey combined for 52% shooting last year while Andujar led the team with 2.0 steals per game and Pankey with 1.4 blocks per game. The rest of last year’s team made just 38% of their shots and this year’s team is shooting 38% from the field without Andujar and Pankey – so their slumping offense is really not that surprising. Manhattan is also worse defensively and they’ve allowed 58.5% on 2-point shots without Pankey protecting the rim this season. My ratings favor Fordham by 10 points and I get 12 ½ points using this season’s game only (adjusted for variance). I’ll take Fordham in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 1-Star up to -10 points.
**PITTSBURGH (-12 ½) over Kent State
01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 520
Pittsburgh has been a consistently good teams under head coach Jamie Dixon but the Panthers fell towards mediocrity last season thanks to a significant drop in the level of their defense, which fell from top 30 status to 201st in compensated efficiency. The Panthers are back playing good defense and the offense has improved from last year’s #30 ranking. I expect good things from Pitt this season and my ratings favor the Panthers by 15 ½ points over Kent State, who is 0-3 ATS so far this season. I get 17 points if I use this year’s games only, adjusted for variance, so the line value appears to be on the side of Pitt, who also apply to a 112-44-7 ATS early season angle that plays on teams playing their 4th (or more) consecutive game at home. I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 1-Star up to -15.
**FORDHAM (-8 ½) over Manhattan
02:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 588
Fordham is an improved team under first year head coach Jeff Neubauer and the Rams apply to a 93-32-5 ATS home momentum situation based on their recent good play (won their last 3 by an average of 23 points). I realize that Fordham is not going to continue to make 40% of their 3-point shots or hold opponents to 29% 3-point shooting but they’re still likely to be a few points better than last year’s team. Manhattan, meanwhile, lost their best two players from last year’s team, which hurts the Jaspers on both sides of the court. Emmy Andujar and Ashton Pankey combined for 52% shooting last year while Andujar led the team with 2.0 steals per game and Pankey with 1.4 blocks per game. The rest of last year’s team made just 38% of their shots and this year’s team is shooting 38% from the field without Andujar and Pankey – so their slumping offense is really not that surprising. Manhattan is also worse defensively and they’ve allowed 58.5% on 2-point shots without Pankey protecting the rim this season. My ratings favor Fordham by 10 points and I get 12 ½ points using this season’s game only (adjusted for variance). I’ll take Fordham in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 1-Star up to -10 points.
