John Ryan
Play Title: Sooners
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Oklahoma as hey host Oklahoma State in the Bedlam rivalry set to start at 12:30 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 8 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 24-5 ATS for 83% winners since 1999. Play on a home team off a double digit upset loss as a road favorite of 6 more and with a winning record on the season. AiS shows a 92% probability that Oklahoma will pass for 250 to 300 net passing yards. Note that Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when their defense allows 250 to 300 net passing yards since 1992. Oklahoma has lost 5 starters on offense including Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford. But, there has been ample time for this unit to rebuild given the tremendous depth on their roster. I also think getting humiliated by Texas Tech last week even adds more fuel to the competitive fires to not only defeat Oklahoma State, but humiliate them as well. Although this is the most losses Stoop’s team has had at Oklahoma it serves as tremendous lessons about perseverance and that never give up attitude that the BEST programs always possess within their team character. Oklahoma State is a fine program in its’ own right, but has always been the under dog in this rivalry. In fact, this is just the third time that OSU is playing an unranked OU team. This also occurred in 145 and 1997. Take Oklahoma.
Play Title: FSU
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Florida State as they take on Florida set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows a 85% probability that FSU will lose this game by 24 or fewer points. I can still remember last year when I had a 10* Titan winner on Ole Miss, who like FSU, game into Florida as a 24 point dog. Ole Miss won that game and then game that glorious Tebow speech. I am certainly not calling for the upset here, but based on the AiS projections it will be far closer than most observers believe possible. FSU comes in with a severe chip on their shoulders losing 5 straight to this team and enduring a season where their beloved HC was being ridiculed by high level boosters. Nothing would be better than to see Bowden pull off the miracle and prove his naysayers wrong, in the payer’s opinion. FSU is a solid 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992. FSU has won 4 of their last 5 and the offense is playing well in a balanced attack. Based on the AiS 24 points is just too many for Florida to cover even if they play perfect. Take FSU.
Play Title: Stanford
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Stanford as they take on Notre Dame set o start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 78% probability that that Stanford will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 52-19 ATS for 73% winners since 2004. Play against road dogs that are excellent passing teams gaining >=275 PY/game and facing a poor passing defense allowing 230-275 PYPG. AiS shows a 90% probability that Stanford will gain 10 or more net passing yards per attempt and will out gain ND by 100 to 150 total yards. Note that Stanford is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Stanford is also 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons. Take Stanford.
Play Title: Washington
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Washington as they take on Washington State set to start at 6:30 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an amazing 24-3 ATS for 89% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points in conference games that are average offensive teams gaining 4.8 to 5.6 YPP facing a team with a weak defense allowing >=6.2 YPP. This system has gone 19-2 ATS over the past 10 seasons and is 9-0 L5 seasons. 90% probability that Washington will out gain WSU by a minimum of 200 yards and will out gain WSU by 2 or more yards per play. WSU is just 5-23 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards since 1992; Washington is a solid 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play since 1992. WSU is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after gaining 3.75 or less and allowing 6.75+ yards/play last game over the last 3 seasons. Take Washington.