KELSO
100 UnitsGeorgia Tech (-7½) over Georgia
8:00 PM -- Bobby Dodd Stadium At Historic Grant Field
College Rivalry Game Of The Year 100 Units GEORGIA TECH (10-1) -7 ½ over Georgia (6-5) Prediction: Georgia Tech by 21-24 Starting Time: 8:00 TV: ABC Comments: Georgia Tech is the complete football team and it is no accident the Yellow Jackets have lost but one game this season—a 33-11 decision at Miami in their third game. In this traditional rivalry game, Georgia Tech has every single edge across the board and is dramatically superior at the skill positions. It also is of importance to note Tech has a sophisticated and dominating running game that averages 341.1 yards per game and in the process permits the Jackets to control the clock for 60 minutes. This game usually brings together two teams that are basically equal in talent—but not this time.
Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
100 UnitsGeorgia Tech (-7½) over Georgia
8:00 PM -- Bobby Dodd Stadium At Historic Grant Field
College Rivalry Game Of The Year 100 Units GEORGIA TECH (10-1) -7 ½ over Georgia (6-5) Prediction: Georgia Tech by 21-24 Starting Time: 8:00 TV: ABC Comments: Georgia Tech is the complete football team and it is no accident the Yellow Jackets have lost but one game this season—a 33-11 decision at Miami in their third game. In this traditional rivalry game, Georgia Tech has every single edge across the board and is dramatically superior at the skill positions. It also is of importance to note Tech has a sophisticated and dominating running game that averages 341.1 yards per game and in the process permits the Jackets to control the clock for 60 minutes. This game usually brings together two teams that are basically equal in talent—but not this time.
Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
TEDDY COVERS
Saturday Night NCAA Smackdown: TV Winner
Teddy's Saturday Night Primetime national TV blowout special . Lay the points with this red hot favorite and watch them annihilate their slumping foe! Teddy's tremendous college football run continues with this watch and win smackdown!
Georgia Tech
Saturday Night NCAA Smackdown: TV Winner
Teddy's Saturday Night Primetime national TV blowout special . Lay the points with this red hot favorite and watch them annihilate their slumping foe! Teddy's tremendous college football run continues with this watch and win smackdown!
Georgia Tech
TRACE ADAMS
1500* - Clemson Tigers, 500* - North Carolina Tar Heels, 500* - La Salle Explorers If Tommy Bowden were still the coach of Clemson, I might be inclined to look for the Tigers to suffer a letdown today, but I am a big believer in Dabo Swinney, so I say to lay the small road wood with the Tigers against the fading Gamecocks.
Clemson comes into Columbia riding a 6-game win streak, and they are 4-1 against the spread in those games, their only non-cover coming last week laying 3 TDs in a 14-point win at Virginia.
Carolina has lost 3 straight, and 4 of their last 5, and there is just not enough consistency for my liking to think they can spring the upset.
Clemson has covered 6 of the last 8, and they have won 10 of the 12 series meetings straight up. The Tigers are on a roll right now, and I don't expect them to be stopped.
Have to lay the short road wood in this one.
1500♦ - Clemson Tigers
The time is right for the Tar Heels to garner some "double-revenge" against a NC State team that crushed UNC, 41-10 last season in Chapel Hill.
North Carolina has the pieces falling into place after a mid-season 1-3 swoon, as the Heels have rattled off 4 straight wins and covers coming into this one.
NC State does NOT have the pieces falling into place losing 6 of their last 7, while failing 5 of those 7 against the spread.
5 of the 'Pack's 7 losses have come by 20-points or better! That is trouble against this tough North Carolina defense.
Go with the "double-revenge" angle to work.
Tar Heels minus the points.
500♦ - North Carolina Tar Heels
College baskets, take the points with the deceptive La Salle Explorers.
This the the deepest, tallest La Salle team in years, and while 'Nova is in the Top-5 in the land right now, this is a "City Series" meeting, and you know the Explorers will be primed to end a 7 game series slide.
La Salle is actually 4-3-1 against the spread the last 8 series meetings, and I like the points to work in this 40 minute battle.
500♦ - La Salle Explorers
BOUGHR,PAID AND CONFIRMED-------GL GUYS
1500* - Clemson Tigers, 500* - North Carolina Tar Heels, 500* - La Salle Explorers If Tommy Bowden were still the coach of Clemson, I might be inclined to look for the Tigers to suffer a letdown today, but I am a big believer in Dabo Swinney, so I say to lay the small road wood with the Tigers against the fading Gamecocks.
Clemson comes into Columbia riding a 6-game win streak, and they are 4-1 against the spread in those games, their only non-cover coming last week laying 3 TDs in a 14-point win at Virginia.
Carolina has lost 3 straight, and 4 of their last 5, and there is just not enough consistency for my liking to think they can spring the upset.
Clemson has covered 6 of the last 8, and they have won 10 of the 12 series meetings straight up. The Tigers are on a roll right now, and I don't expect them to be stopped.
Have to lay the short road wood in this one.
1500♦ - Clemson Tigers
The time is right for the Tar Heels to garner some "double-revenge" against a NC State team that crushed UNC, 41-10 last season in Chapel Hill.
North Carolina has the pieces falling into place after a mid-season 1-3 swoon, as the Heels have rattled off 4 straight wins and covers coming into this one.
NC State does NOT have the pieces falling into place losing 6 of their last 7, while failing 5 of those 7 against the spread.
5 of the 'Pack's 7 losses have come by 20-points or better! That is trouble against this tough North Carolina defense.
Go with the "double-revenge" angle to work.
Tar Heels minus the points.
500♦ - North Carolina Tar Heels
College baskets, take the points with the deceptive La Salle Explorers.
This the the deepest, tallest La Salle team in years, and while 'Nova is in the Top-5 in the land right now, this is a "City Series" meeting, and you know the Explorers will be primed to end a 7 game series slide.
La Salle is actually 4-3-1 against the spread the last 8 series meetings, and I like the points to work in this 40 minute battle.
500♦ - La Salle Explorers
BOUGHR,PAID AND CONFIRMED-------GL GUYS
Steven Budin-CEO
SATURDAY'S PLAY 25 DIME
OKLAHOMA STATE
Note: This number ranges between +7 1/2 to +8 1/2 depending on where you play it in Vegas or offshore. Obviously price-shopping is a major consideration. But, keep these factors in mind as well:
1) If this price happens to drop to +7, you absolutely must buy up the 1/2 point to +7 1/2 on Oklahoma State.
2) If you can only get +7 1/2, go ahead an buy up to +8 on Oklahoma State.
3) If your price is +8, there is no need to buy any additional insurance.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMD BY BRADY1983 AND MYSELF-----GL GUYS
SATURDAY'S PLAY 25 DIME
OKLAHOMA STATE
Note: This number ranges between +7 1/2 to +8 1/2 depending on where you play it in Vegas or offshore. Obviously price-shopping is a major consideration. But, keep these factors in mind as well:
1) If this price happens to drop to +7, you absolutely must buy up the 1/2 point to +7 1/2 on Oklahoma State.
2) If you can only get +7 1/2, go ahead an buy up to +8 on Oklahoma State.
3) If your price is +8, there is no need to buy any additional insurance.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMD BY BRADY1983 AND MYSELF-----GL GUYS
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(15) Clemson (8-3, 7-3 ATS) at South Carolina (6-5, 6-4 ATS)
A week after clinching their first-ever berth in the ACC championship game, the Tigers now set their sights on their annual battle for state supremacy when they take on South Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium.
Clemson officially wrapped up its first ACC Atlantic Division title when second-place Boston College lost to North Carolina early Saturday afternoon, then the Tigers went out and pounded Virginia 34-21 for their sixth consecutive win. However, they failed to cover as a 21-point home favorite – by far the most points they’ve given all season – ending a 4-0 ATS run. Clemson had a 366-273 edge in total offense and outscored the Cavaliers 10-0 after halftime.
The Gamecocks haven’t seen the field in two weeks, taking last week off after a hard-fought 24-14 home loss to Florida on Nov. 14, their third straight defeat and fourth in the last five games. South Carolina did cover as a 17½-point underdog against the Gators, ending overall ATS slides of 1-5 and 0-3. Coach Steve Spurrier’s offense has gone in the tank the last five weeks, producing 16 points or fewer in all five games and averaging just 12.6 points per contest after scoring 28 or more in four of their previous five outings.
Clemson has dominated this rivalry, winning two in a row, six of the last seven and 10 of the last 12, going 8-4 ATS dating to 1997. Last year, the Tigers rolled 31-14 as a one-point home favorite, and they’ve come out on top in each of their last three trips to Columbia (2-1 ATS), with the last two at Williams-Brice Stadium decided by a total of six points.
In addition to covering the spread in five of its last six overall, Clemson is on ATS runs of 10-2 overall, 4-1 on the road and 5-1 in November, but it is also in pointspread funks of 2-8 in non-conference games, 1-5 against SEC opponents, 4-10 after an ATS setback, 2-7 as a favorite of three points or less and 1-5 as a road chalk in that range. The Gamecocks have covered twice this year as a home underdog and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a ‘dog and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five after a bye, but they’ve failed to cash in eight of 10 as a ‘dog of three points or fewer.
The Tigers are on “over” streaks of 4-0 overall in lined games and 4-0 in November, but they also carry “under” trends of 4-2 in non-conference games, 13-5 as a favorite, 5-1 as a road chalk, 7-1 when laying a field goal or less and 7-1 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, South Carolina is on “under” stretches of 4-1 overall, 10-3 at home, 6-0 as a home underdog and 4-1 against the ACC. Finally, three of the last four head-to-head meetings in Columbia – including the last two – have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tennessee (7-4, 6-5 ATS) at Kentucky (6-5 SU and ATS)
Two teams looking to improve their postseason bowl slots conclude their regular seasons in Lexington, Ky., where the Wildcats try to end a 24-game losing streak to Tennessee – the longest series losing streak in the country – in this annual SEC East showdown.
The Volunteers bounced back from a humbling 42-17 loss at Ole Miss with last Saturday’s 31-16 rout of Vanderbilt. However, they came up short as a 17-point home favorite, their second straight non-cover following a 4-0 ATS run, as the ‘dog is now 7-3 ATS in Tennessee’s last 10 games. The Vols’ success in coach Lane Kiffin’s first season has been tied to the offense, which has produced 31 points or more in all six wins (average of 43.3 per game) while managing 22 points or less in all five losses (15.4 ppg), including 17 or less four times.
Kentucky has followed up a three-game losing skid with a 5-1 SU roll, including an ongoing three-game win streak. Last week, the Wildcats went to Georgia and shocked the Bulldogs 34-27 as a 9½-point underdog. During its 5-1 run, Kentucky is averaging 29.3 ppg and giving up 18.3 ppg. Also, since starting the season 1-3 ATS, Rich Brooks’ teams has cashed in five of its last six lined games, with the ‘dog going 4-2 ATS in this stretch.
Two years ago, the Volunteers went to Lexington and needed three overtime periods to beat Kentucky 52-50 as a 2½-point road underdog and extend their dominance in this rivalry to 23 games in a row. Last year, Tennessee made it 24 straight with a much-more-comfortable 28-10 win as a four-point home chalk. The Vols have covered in nine of the last 13 meetings overall, including three straight in Lexington, and the visitor is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Tennessee is on ATS upticks of 5-2 on the road and 6-2 as a road favorite (5-1 when laying three points or less on the road). The Wildcats have failed to cover in 11 of their last 14 at home (1-4 ATS at home this year), but are otherwise on pointspread surges of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in SEC play and 4-0 against opponents with a winning record.
Aside from a 5-1-1 “over” run as a road chalk, the Vols have been a clear-cut “under” team of late, with low-scoring trends of 21-8-1 overall, 6-1 on the highway, 11-5-1 as a favorite, 19-7-1 in conference play and 10-3-1 in November. Conversely, the over for Kentucky is on streaks of 7-2 at home, 5-2-1 as an underdog, 6-1 as a home pup and 7-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the under is 4-2-1 in the last seven matchups in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Southern Miss (7-4, 5-5 ATS) at East Carolina (7-4, 5-5 ATS)
The Conference USA East Division title is on the line at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, where East Carolina hosts the Golden Eagles in a matchup of squads surging toward the finish line.
Southern Miss has won two in a row and four of its last five both SU and ATS, and kept its division title hopes alive with last week’s 44-34 win over Tulsa as an 8½-piont home favorite. It marked the third time in the last four games that the Eagles topped the 40-point mark, and they’re averaging 38.6 ppg during their 4-1 SU and ATS run.
Like their opponent today, the Pirates enter this contest having won two in a row and four of five both SU and ATS, including last week’s 37-21 rout of UAB as a 14½-point home favorite. East Carolina’s last four wins have all come within Conference USA and all four were double-digit routs, with an average margin of victory of 24.5 ppg (42-17.5). The Pirates’ only loss since mid-October was a 16-3 non-conference setback at home to then-No. 22 Virginia Tech, and the defense has held five straight opponents to 21 points or less.
East Carolina is 6-1 (5-2 ATS) in Conference USA action, one game ahead of both Southern Miss (5-2, 4-3 ATS) and Central Florida. Since both teams defeated Central Florida, the winner of this contest will claim the East Division crown.
Southern Miss crushed the Pirates 21-3 as a three-point home favorite last year, but East Carolina got the last laugh as it won the East Division title and upset Tulsa in the C-USA championship game. Still, this rivalry has been all Eagles, who have won and covered two in a row and seven of the last eight. Furthermore, Southern Miss is 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 clashes overall, including 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven trips East Carolina. Lastly, the favorite has gotten the cash in six of the last seven meetings overall.
The SU winner has covered the spread in each of these teams’ last seven games, and the winner is 14-0-1 ATS in the last 15 series meetings between these schools going back to 1994. Also, the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the Eagles’ last five games (after the underdog cashed in their first five lined contests) and 5-2 ATS in East Carolina’s last seven.
Southern Miss has gotten the money in six straight November contests and its 4-1 overall ATS run has all come within the conference, but the Eagles have struggled in the road underdog role (4-9 ATS last 13 and 3-8-1 ATS last 12 when catching 3½ to 10 points on the highway). Meanwhile, the Pirates have cashed in four straight games as a favorite, but they’re 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a chalk of 3½ to 10 points and they’ve failed to cover in four of five against opponents with a winning record.
The under is 5-2 in the Eagles’ last seven overall, 5-2 in its last seven on the road, 8-2 in its last 10 Conference USA contests and 4-1 in its last five in November. The Pirates have stayed low in seven of 10 in November, but from there they’re on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall and 4-0 in conference play. Finally, the under is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(11) Oklahoma State (9-2, 5-4-1 ATS) at Oklahoma (6-5, 3-6-1 ATS)
Oklahoma State tries to stay in the hunt for an at-large BCS Bowl Berth when it makes the short trek to Norman, Okla., for the annual season finale against the hated Sooners.
Playing without injured QB Zac Robinson, the Cowboys survived a big scare last Thursday against Colorado, rallying for a 31-28 victory but coming up way short as a 17-point home favorite. Oklahoma State, which outgained Colorado 400-251 (232-13 on the ground), has won three in a row and eight of nine, while last week’s non-cover ended a 4-1 ATS uptick. The Cowboys have scored more than 30 points in eight of 11 games this year and are averaging 33 points, 197 passing yards and 204.3 rushing yards per game
With Robinson (shoulder) out last week, second-string QB Alex Cate started and was a disaster in the first half, going 0-for-9 with one interception. Cate gave way to third-stringer Brandon Weeden in the second half, and Weeden went 10-for-15 for 168 yards with two TDs, including the game-winner with 8:11 to play. Robinson is probable to start, but if he doesn’t, Weeden will get the nod.
Oklahoma’s disappointing season continued with last Saturday’s 41-13 loss at Texas Tech as a 6½-point road favorite. The Sooners, whose first four defeats were by a total of 12 points, finished with just 16 first downs, 310 total yards and 48 rushing yards, while the normally stout defense got torched for 32 first downs, 549 total yards and 161 rushing yards, and Texas Tech held the ball for 37 minutes.
It has been feast-or-famine all year for the Sooners, who have averaged 12.4 ppg in their five losses (scoring 13 or less in four of them) and 47.3 ppg in their six victories (tallying at least 33 points in all six). Additionally, OU’s six wins were all double-digit blowouts (37.3-point average margin of victory).
Oklahoma has won six straight meetings in this rivalry (5-1 ATS, including four straight spread-covers, all as a favorite). Last year in Stillwater, the Sooners rolled 61-41 as a 10-point road favorite, following a 49-17 win as a 13½-point home chalk in 2007. Five of the last seven clashes have been double-digit blowouts, and the last time the Cowboys won in Norman was in 2002 (38-28 as a 15-point pup). The host has cashed in eight of the last 11 in this series.
Oklahoma State is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 on the highway (2-0-1 ATS this year), but is otherwise in ATS funks of 0-4 as an underdog, 11-23-1 as a road ‘dog and 7-23 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points. The Sooners are on pointspread slides of 2-5-1 overall, 2-5-1 against winning teams and 3-7 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, but they’re 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a SU loss (2-1 ATS after a defeat this year).
The under is 10-2 in the Cowboys’ last 12 on the highway and 8-1 in their last nine as a road pup, while Oklahoma carries under streaks of 9-2 overall, 4-2 at home, 5-2 in Big 12 play, 7-2 as a favorite and 8-2 against winning teams. However, five of the last seven in this rivalry have gone over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and UNDER
Florida State (6-5, 3-7 ATS) at (1) Florida (11-0, 5-5 ATS)
Tim Tebow and the rest of the Gators seniors take the field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium for the final time as Florida closes out the regular season and preps for next week’s SEC Championship Game with a non-conference battle with instate rival Florida State.
The Seminoles became bowl-eligible for the 28th consecutive season with last Saturday’s come-from-behind 29-26 victory over lowly Maryland, failing to cover as an 18-point home favorite. Trailing 26-22, Florida State got a 3-yard touchdown run from Lonnie Pryor with 32 seconds left to win for the fourth time in the last five games despite having the football for less than 23 minutes.
Florida finished regular-season SEC play with a 24-14 win at South Carolina on Nov. 14, then went out last week and embarrassed Florida International 62-3, covering as a massive 47-point home favorite. The defending champs have the nation’s longest winning streak at 21 in a row, with 19 of those victories being double-digit blowouts. The Gators are 14-5 ATS in lined action during their winning streak (all as a favorite), and they’ve held all 21 opponents to 21 points or less. This season, Urban Meyer’s defense is yielding just 9.8 points, 229.8 total yards and 139.3 passing yards per game, figures that rank first, second and first in the nation, respectively.
This has been a completely one-sided rivalry in recent years, with Florida winning five in a row (4-1 ATS). In 2007, the Gators scored a 45-12 victory as a 14-point home favorite, then they went to Tallahassee last year and posted a near-identical 45-15 rout, this time cashing as a 16-point road chalk. The Gators outgained the ‘Noles by a combined 1,043-539 margin the last two years, with Tebow accounting for nine touchdowns (six passing, three rushing).
Additionally in this series, the host is on an 11-4 ATS roll, and the favorite has cashed in nine of the last 11.
The Seminoles are in pointspread downfalls of 2-6 overall, 1-4 against opponents with a winning record and 8-21-1 after an outright victory, but they’re 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 as an underdog (4-1-2 ATS last seven as a road pup). Meanwhile, in addition to their 14-5 ATS mark during their winning streak, the Gators are also on pointspread surges of 7-3 at home, 19-7 against winning teams, 19-7 in non-conference play and 9-2 in November.
The under is 9-3 in Florida State’s last 12 games against SEC competition, but otherwise the Seminoles have been an “over” squad, posting high-scoring trends of 6-1 overall, 19-7 on the road, 13-3 as an underdog and 10-1 as a road ‘dog. The over is 15-7 in Florida’s last 22 home games, 8-3 in its last 11 non-league games and 8-3 in its last 11 in November, but the Gators are also on “under” streaks, including 7-2 overall, 6-1 against the SEC, 6-1 against winning opponents and 6-0 after a spread-cover.
Finally, the under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in this rivalry (4-1 last five years).
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER
Georgia (6-5, 3-7 ATS) at (7) Georgia Tech (10-1, 7-3 ATS)
The Bulldogs look to avenge last year’s embarrassing home loss to their instate rival and put a halt to Georgia Tech’s eight-game winning streak when these teams meet at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta.
Georgia’s roller-coaster season continued Saturday with a 34-27 home loss to Kentucky as a 9½-point favorite. The Bulldogs had a 487-260 edge in total offense, but that was offset by four turnovers, while the defense failed to force a single Kentucky miscue. Georgia has followed up a three-game winning streak by losing four of its last seven, and one of those victories came against Division I-AA Tennessee Tech (38-0).
The Yellow Jackets took last week off after pounding Duke 49-10 as a 13½-point road favorite on Nov. 14, clinching the ACC Coastal Division title and a berth in next week’s ACC Championship Game against Clemson. Not only has Georgia Tech won eight straight games, but it is 7-1 ATS and it has outgained six of the eight opponents, including four by 200 yards or more. Additionally, the Jackets have scored 30 points or more in six of their last seven games, topping the 40-point mark four times.
Georgia raced out to a 28-12 halftime lead against the Yellow Jackets last year and seemed poised to post its eighth consecutive win in this rivalry. However, Georgia Tech came out of the locker room and scored 26 unanswered points en route to a 45-42 victory as a 7½-point road underdog. In snapping the seven-game slide to the Bulldogs, the Yellow Jackets also halted 1-5-1 ATS slump in this rivalry. The road team is on a remarkable 9-1-1 ATS roll in this series, with the Dawgs winning four straight in Atlanta and going 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Bobby Dodd Stadium.
Georgia is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games against ACC opponents and 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog, but from there, the pointspread trends head downhill for the Bulldogs, including 5-14 overall, 2-5 on the highway, 3-8 after a SU defeat, 1-4 against winning teams and 1-5 in November
Not only have the Jackets cashed in seven of their last eight games, but they’re on further pointspread surges of 4-1 against the SEC and 5-1 as a favorite, but they’re 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 as a home favorite and 2-7 ATS in their last nine following a bye.
The Bulldogs are on “over” runs of 7-1 as an underdog, 5-1 as a road pup, 8-3-1 against winning teams and 5-1 in November, and the over is 6-2-1 in Georgia Tech’s last nine in November and 5-1 in its last six against the SEC. However, the under is 3-1-1 in the Jackets’ last five overall and 4-1 in their last five at home. Finally, the last two meetings between these squads topped the total, following a 5-2 “under” run.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH and OVER
(22) Utah (9-2, 4-7 ATS) at (18) BYU (9-2, 6-5 ATS)
The Cougars shoot for their fourth straight victory when they take on archrival Utah in this bitter rivalry, which this year will decide second place in the Mountain West Conference.
The Utes had a six-game winning streak halted in humbling fashion with 55-28 loss at TCU as a 20-point road underdog two weeks ago, but they bounced back quickly and destroyed San Diego State 38-7 last Saturday, easily covering as a 21-point home favorite. Utah, which led the Aztecs 35-0 at halftime, are 30-3 in their last 33 games, including 12-3 in true road games. The losses came at TCU, at Oregon back in Week 3 of this season and at BYU in the 2007 regular-season finale.
BYU ran its winning streak to three in a row with Saturday’s 38-21 dismantling of Air Force, covering as an eight-point home chalk. The Cougars outgained Air Force 498-300 and led 31-7 after three quarters, and like Utah, they’ve won seven of their last eight games – and like Utah, the one blemish was an ugly loss to TCU (38-7 at home). BYU has alternated spread-covers in its last five games and hasn’t cashed in consecutive contests starting the year 2-0 ATS.
Two years ago, Utah made the 45-minute drive south to Provo and took a 10-9 lead over the Cougars with just 90 seconds to play. However, BYU drove down the field quickly and scored the winning TD with 38 seconds left to pull out a 17-10 win as a 4½-point home favorite. The Utes got their revenge last year, though, walloping BYU 48-24 as a 6½-point chalk, improving to 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five.
The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six in this rivalry, but the Utes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Provo. Additionally, the favorite has cashed the last two years after the ‘dog had gotten the money in 12 of the previous 14 battles. Also, 10 of the last 12 BYU-Utah wars have been decided by a touchdown or less.
Utah has failed to cover in four of its last five road games and four straight against winning opponents, but the Utes are on ATS upticks of 25-7-1 as an underdog, 25-8-1 as a road pup, 13-4-1 when catching between 3½ and 10 points and 5-1 in November. The Cougars are in ATS slumps of 2-6 at home, 2-5 as a home favorite, 4-11 after a SU win and 0-4 after a spread-cover.
The under is 6-2 in Utah’s last eight games overall (5-2 in Mountain West play), but the over is 4-1 in its last five as an underdog and 4-1 in its last five in November. BYU sports high-scoring trends of 7-3 overall, 7-2 in conference, 8-2 as a favorite and 4-1 in November.
In this rivalry, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings overall, but five of the last six at Lavell Edwards Stadium have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH
(19) Miami, Fla. (8-3, 5-5 ATS) at South Florida (7-3, 3-5 ATS)
The Hurricanes will try to improve their bowl standing when they close out the regular season with a trip north to Tampa Bay for non-conference tussle against South Florida at Raymond James Stadium.
Miami bounced back from a 33-24 loss at North Carolina with a 34-16 rout of Duke last week, coming up just short as an 18½-point home favorite to fall to 1-4 ATS in its last five games (all within the ACC). The Hurricanes rallied from a 16-10 deficit and scored the final 24 points of the game, finishing with a 496-358 advantage in total offense. They’ve outgained their last three opponents by a total of 610 yards.
The Bulls also rebounded from an ugly loss last Saturday, following a 31-0 setback at Rutgers with a 34-22 home win over Louisville. However, they pushed as a 12-point home favorite despite rolling up 538 yards of total offense and holding the Cardinals to 313. South Florida has scored at least 30 points in six of its seven wins (averaging 35.6 ppg in all seven victories), while producing a total of 31 points in its three losses (all to Big East foes Cincinnati, Pitt and Rutgers).
Despite playing in the same state, these schools have met just once previously, and that was in 2005, with Miami wining 27-7 but barely misfiring as a 21-point home favorite.
The ‘Canes have cashed in six of their last seven non-conference games, but from there, it’s all negative ATS trends, including 1-4 overall, 1-5 against teams from the Big East, 16-34-1 as a favorite, 1-4 as a road favorite, 3-13 when laying between 3½ and 10 points and 1-5 in November.
South Florida is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five overall and 4-12 ATS in its last 16 against winning teams, but the Bulls have cashed in four of five as an underdog, five of six as an underdog of 3 ½ to 10 points and four straight against the ACC – including a 17-7 outright upset of Florida State as a 14-point road pup earlier this season.
Miami has stayed under the total in 35 of its last 51 non-conference games, including six straight against the Big East, but the over is 4-1 in its last five overall and 6-2 in its last eight as a road favorite. South Florida carries “over” trends of 5-1 overall, 4-0 at home and 5-2-1 in November, but the under is 11-5 in its last 16 as an underdog and 4-1 in its last five against non-conference competition.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH FLORIDA
Arkansas (7-4, 6-4 ATS) at (17) LSU (8-3, 5-6 ATS)
As per tradition, SEC rivals Arkansas and LSU close out the regular season against each other, with the Razorbacks looking to post their fifth consecutive overall victory and their third straight upset win over the Tigers.
Arkansas crushed Mississippi State 42-21 as an 11½-point home favorite, notching its fourth straight victory and third consecutive spread-cover (all at home). During the winning streak – which includes non-conference routs of Eastern Michigan and Troy – the Razorbacks have averaged 49.3 ppg while yielding just 21 ppg. However, Arkansas has lost all three of its true road games this year, all in SEC play (1-2 ATS).
LSU is hoping to recover from a painful 25-23 loss at Ole Miss last week. The Tigers blew a 14-6 first-quarter lead and trailed 25-17 with less than four minutes to play. Then they got a 25-yard TD pass from QB Jordan Jefferson, missed the game-tying two-point conversion, then recovered the onside kick and converted a miraculous fourth-and-26 with nine seconds to play. However, because it was out of timeouts, LSU couldn’t stop the clock, and it chose not to rush the field-goal unit onto the field for a potential game-winning kick. The clock expired with Jefferson inexplicably spiking the ball.
The Tigers were on the short end of a 426-290 total yardage discrepancy at Ole Miss, but still managed to cover as a 4½-point road underdog, improving to 4-2 ATS in their last six. Following a seven-game stretch in which the defense gave up 13 points or less six times, LSU has surrendered an average of 21.6 ppg in the last three.
Arkansas has pulled off back-to-back thrilling upsets in this rivalry, winning 50-48 in triple-overtime as a 13-point road underdog in 2007, following by last year’s 31-30 win as a seven-point home pup, with the game-winning TD coming on a 24-yard pass with 21 seconds to play. LSU had won the four previous meetings (3-1 ATS), and the underdog has now covered in seven of the last 10 series battles, including four outright upsets.
The Razorbacks are on pointspread surges of 6-2 overall, 4-1 in conference, 4-0 in November, 5-0 after a SU win and 7-3 as an underdog. Meanwhile, despite covering the number four times in its last six games, LSU remains mired in a slew of ATS slumps, including 9-22-1 overall, 3-10 at home, 7-17-1 in SEC play, 1-12 in SEC home games, 3-8 as a favorite, 3-7 as a home favorite, 1-9 in November and 1-6 after a spread-cover. In fact, the Tigers haven’t covered a pointspread in three straight games since starting the 2007 season 3-0 ATS.
The under is 4-0 in Arkansas’ last four as a visitor and 4-1 in its last five as a road underdog, and LSU is on “under” stretches of 5-2 overall, 7-0 at home, 5-1 as a favorite and 6-0 as a home favorite. However, the Tigers have topped the total in 15 of 22 versus SEC rivals and 10 of 13 in November. Finally, this rivalry has seen the over hit in five of the last six years, including the last three in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARKANSAS and OVER
Notre Dame (6-5, 3-8 ATS) at Stanford (7-4 SU and ATS)
Charlie Weis likely will be coaching his final game for Notre Dame as he leads his struggling squad into Stanford Stadium for a meeting with the Cardinal in the regular-season finale for both teams.
The Irish suffered their third consecutive close defeat last Saturday, losing 33-30 to UConn in double-overtime as a six-point home favorite. Notre Dame blew leads of 14-0 and 17-10 and allowed the Huskies to run for 231 yards, ruining yet another strong game by QB Jimmy Clausen (30-for-45, 329 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs). The Irish have lost their last three by a total of 10 points, and nine of their last 10 games have been decided by seven points or less, including seven by five points or less.
After two monster upsets of ranked foes Oregon (51-42 as a seven-point home underdog) and USC (55-21 as a 10½-point road ‘dog), Stanford came crashing back down to earth last week, losing to archrival Cal 34-28 as a seven-point home chalk, costing the team a shot at the Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl berth. The Cardinal defense surrendered 477 total yards (242 rushing), but Stanford RB Toby Gerhart had another huge game, rushing for 136 yards and all four of his team’s touchdowns. Over his last three games, Gerhart has 537 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Irish own a seven-game winning streak against Stanford, and they’re 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Palo Alto. Three of the last four clashes have been decided by exactly seven points, including the last two, with Notre Dame prevailing 21-14 as a five-point road underdog in 2007 and 28-21 as a 5½-point home chalk last year. Finally, the ‘dog has taken the money three times in the last four series meetings.
Since the Irish’s 35-0 rout of Nevada as a 14-point home favorite in the season opener, the underdog has now covered the spread in each of Notre Dame’s last 10 games, and that includes three outright upsets. That said, the Irish are 2-8 ATS in those games, and they’re also 1-4 ATS in their last five November contests.
Stanford had covered in 11 consecutive home games prior to last week’s loss to Cal. Still, the Cardinal are on positive pointspread runs of 6-2 as a favorite, 12-3-1 as a home chalk, 5-2 in November, 5-1 after a non-cover and 6-2 after a SU loss.
Notre Dame topped the total in last week’s overtime game against UConn, but is still on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 13-3 on the highway, 13-5 as an underdog, 24-8-1 as a road pup, 13-6 against Pac-10 foes and 5-1-1 in November. Stanford has gone over the number in five of six overall and seven in a row in November, but Jim Harbaugh’s team is also on “under” stretches of 10-3 as a home favorite, 6-1 as a chalk of 3 ½ to 10 points, 36-14-1 after a SU loss and 29-8-1 following a non-cover. Lastly, six of the last nine in this rivalry have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD and UNDER
UCLA (6-5 SU and ATS) at (24) USC (7-3, 2-8 ATS)
The annual battle for Southern California bragging rights takes place at the L.A. Coliseum, where surging UCLA looks to close out the regular season with a rare victory over the hated Trojans.
The Bruins opened Pac-10 play with five straight losses (1-4 ATS), but they’ve bounced back to win their last three in a row (2-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 23-13 victory over Arizona State as a 4½-point home chalk. UCLA’s defense has returned to form, giving up just 43 points the last three weeks after surrendering 24 points or more during the five-game losing skid (29.2 ppg).
USC took last week off after suffering a humiliating 55-21 home loss to Stanford as a 10½-point favorite, the team’s fifth consecutive ATS setback. The 55 points allowed were the most since Pete Carroll took over as coach, and the 34-point margin of defeat was the biggest in Carroll’s tenure. It also was the first time in 29 games in the Carroll era that USC lost in November. The Trojans enter this contest having given up 27 points or more in four of their last five games (41.3 ppg allowed in those four contests), while the offense has produced just 55 points (18.3 ppg) in the last three outings.
The Trojans have owned their crosstown rivals since Carroll came on board, winning two in a row and nine of 10 meetings. Last year, USC cruised 28-7, but failed to cover as a 32-point road favorite, In fact, UCLA has cashed in three straight meetings and four of the last five (all as an underdog). Still, the Bruins are just 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to the Coliseum. Finally, the underdog is 6-3 ATS in the last nine series battles, and the host is 5-1 ATS in the last six.
The Bruins have failed to cover in four of their last five as an underdog and four of their last five against winning teams, but they’re otherwise on positive ATS rolls of 9-4 in November, 4-1 after a SU win and 7-1 when catching more than 10 points.
In addition to their five-game ATS slide (0-4 ATS in conference), the Trojans are in pointspread funks of 1-8 overall (all as a favorite), 0-3 at home, 0-5 as a double-digit favorite, 0-6 when coming off a loss of more than 20 points and 0-4 versus opponents with a winning record. On the bright side, USC is still 12-5 ATS in its last 17 after SU defeat, 11-4 ATS in its last 15 after a bye and 21-7 ATS In its last 28 in November.
UCLA carries a slew of “under” trends into this contest, including 22-8-1 overall (8-2 last 10), 6-1 on the road, 10-7-1 as an underdog, 5-0 as a road ‘dog and 7-1 in November. The under is also 33-16-2 in USC’s last 51 conference games and 5-0 in its last five after a SU defeat, but from there, the Trojans are on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 4-0 against winning teams.
Lastly, the past three meetings and four of the last five in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA and UNDER
(15) Clemson (8-3, 7-3 ATS) at South Carolina (6-5, 6-4 ATS)
A week after clinching their first-ever berth in the ACC championship game, the Tigers now set their sights on their annual battle for state supremacy when they take on South Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium.
Clemson officially wrapped up its first ACC Atlantic Division title when second-place Boston College lost to North Carolina early Saturday afternoon, then the Tigers went out and pounded Virginia 34-21 for their sixth consecutive win. However, they failed to cover as a 21-point home favorite – by far the most points they’ve given all season – ending a 4-0 ATS run. Clemson had a 366-273 edge in total offense and outscored the Cavaliers 10-0 after halftime.
The Gamecocks haven’t seen the field in two weeks, taking last week off after a hard-fought 24-14 home loss to Florida on Nov. 14, their third straight defeat and fourth in the last five games. South Carolina did cover as a 17½-point underdog against the Gators, ending overall ATS slides of 1-5 and 0-3. Coach Steve Spurrier’s offense has gone in the tank the last five weeks, producing 16 points or fewer in all five games and averaging just 12.6 points per contest after scoring 28 or more in four of their previous five outings.
Clemson has dominated this rivalry, winning two in a row, six of the last seven and 10 of the last 12, going 8-4 ATS dating to 1997. Last year, the Tigers rolled 31-14 as a one-point home favorite, and they’ve come out on top in each of their last three trips to Columbia (2-1 ATS), with the last two at Williams-Brice Stadium decided by a total of six points.
In addition to covering the spread in five of its last six overall, Clemson is on ATS runs of 10-2 overall, 4-1 on the road and 5-1 in November, but it is also in pointspread funks of 2-8 in non-conference games, 1-5 against SEC opponents, 4-10 after an ATS setback, 2-7 as a favorite of three points or less and 1-5 as a road chalk in that range. The Gamecocks have covered twice this year as a home underdog and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a ‘dog and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five after a bye, but they’ve failed to cash in eight of 10 as a ‘dog of three points or fewer.
The Tigers are on “over” streaks of 4-0 overall in lined games and 4-0 in November, but they also carry “under” trends of 4-2 in non-conference games, 13-5 as a favorite, 5-1 as a road chalk, 7-1 when laying a field goal or less and 7-1 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, South Carolina is on “under” stretches of 4-1 overall, 10-3 at home, 6-0 as a home underdog and 4-1 against the ACC. Finally, three of the last four head-to-head meetings in Columbia – including the last two – have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tennessee (7-4, 6-5 ATS) at Kentucky (6-5 SU and ATS)
Two teams looking to improve their postseason bowl slots conclude their regular seasons in Lexington, Ky., where the Wildcats try to end a 24-game losing streak to Tennessee – the longest series losing streak in the country – in this annual SEC East showdown.
The Volunteers bounced back from a humbling 42-17 loss at Ole Miss with last Saturday’s 31-16 rout of Vanderbilt. However, they came up short as a 17-point home favorite, their second straight non-cover following a 4-0 ATS run, as the ‘dog is now 7-3 ATS in Tennessee’s last 10 games. The Vols’ success in coach Lane Kiffin’s first season has been tied to the offense, which has produced 31 points or more in all six wins (average of 43.3 per game) while managing 22 points or less in all five losses (15.4 ppg), including 17 or less four times.
Kentucky has followed up a three-game losing skid with a 5-1 SU roll, including an ongoing three-game win streak. Last week, the Wildcats went to Georgia and shocked the Bulldogs 34-27 as a 9½-point underdog. During its 5-1 run, Kentucky is averaging 29.3 ppg and giving up 18.3 ppg. Also, since starting the season 1-3 ATS, Rich Brooks’ teams has cashed in five of its last six lined games, with the ‘dog going 4-2 ATS in this stretch.
Two years ago, the Volunteers went to Lexington and needed three overtime periods to beat Kentucky 52-50 as a 2½-point road underdog and extend their dominance in this rivalry to 23 games in a row. Last year, Tennessee made it 24 straight with a much-more-comfortable 28-10 win as a four-point home chalk. The Vols have covered in nine of the last 13 meetings overall, including three straight in Lexington, and the visitor is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Tennessee is on ATS upticks of 5-2 on the road and 6-2 as a road favorite (5-1 when laying three points or less on the road). The Wildcats have failed to cover in 11 of their last 14 at home (1-4 ATS at home this year), but are otherwise on pointspread surges of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in SEC play and 4-0 against opponents with a winning record.
Aside from a 5-1-1 “over” run as a road chalk, the Vols have been a clear-cut “under” team of late, with low-scoring trends of 21-8-1 overall, 6-1 on the highway, 11-5-1 as a favorite, 19-7-1 in conference play and 10-3-1 in November. Conversely, the over for Kentucky is on streaks of 7-2 at home, 5-2-1 as an underdog, 6-1 as a home pup and 7-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the under is 4-2-1 in the last seven matchups in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Southern Miss (7-4, 5-5 ATS) at East Carolina (7-4, 5-5 ATS)
The Conference USA East Division title is on the line at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, where East Carolina hosts the Golden Eagles in a matchup of squads surging toward the finish line.
Southern Miss has won two in a row and four of its last five both SU and ATS, and kept its division title hopes alive with last week’s 44-34 win over Tulsa as an 8½-piont home favorite. It marked the third time in the last four games that the Eagles topped the 40-point mark, and they’re averaging 38.6 ppg during their 4-1 SU and ATS run.
Like their opponent today, the Pirates enter this contest having won two in a row and four of five both SU and ATS, including last week’s 37-21 rout of UAB as a 14½-point home favorite. East Carolina’s last four wins have all come within Conference USA and all four were double-digit routs, with an average margin of victory of 24.5 ppg (42-17.5). The Pirates’ only loss since mid-October was a 16-3 non-conference setback at home to then-No. 22 Virginia Tech, and the defense has held five straight opponents to 21 points or less.
East Carolina is 6-1 (5-2 ATS) in Conference USA action, one game ahead of both Southern Miss (5-2, 4-3 ATS) and Central Florida. Since both teams defeated Central Florida, the winner of this contest will claim the East Division crown.
Southern Miss crushed the Pirates 21-3 as a three-point home favorite last year, but East Carolina got the last laugh as it won the East Division title and upset Tulsa in the C-USA championship game. Still, this rivalry has been all Eagles, who have won and covered two in a row and seven of the last eight. Furthermore, Southern Miss is 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 clashes overall, including 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven trips East Carolina. Lastly, the favorite has gotten the cash in six of the last seven meetings overall.
The SU winner has covered the spread in each of these teams’ last seven games, and the winner is 14-0-1 ATS in the last 15 series meetings between these schools going back to 1994. Also, the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the Eagles’ last five games (after the underdog cashed in their first five lined contests) and 5-2 ATS in East Carolina’s last seven.
Southern Miss has gotten the money in six straight November contests and its 4-1 overall ATS run has all come within the conference, but the Eagles have struggled in the road underdog role (4-9 ATS last 13 and 3-8-1 ATS last 12 when catching 3½ to 10 points on the highway). Meanwhile, the Pirates have cashed in four straight games as a favorite, but they’re 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a chalk of 3½ to 10 points and they’ve failed to cover in four of five against opponents with a winning record.
The under is 5-2 in the Eagles’ last seven overall, 5-2 in its last seven on the road, 8-2 in its last 10 Conference USA contests and 4-1 in its last five in November. The Pirates have stayed low in seven of 10 in November, but from there they’re on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall and 4-0 in conference play. Finally, the under is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(11) Oklahoma State (9-2, 5-4-1 ATS) at Oklahoma (6-5, 3-6-1 ATS)
Oklahoma State tries to stay in the hunt for an at-large BCS Bowl Berth when it makes the short trek to Norman, Okla., for the annual season finale against the hated Sooners.
Playing without injured QB Zac Robinson, the Cowboys survived a big scare last Thursday against Colorado, rallying for a 31-28 victory but coming up way short as a 17-point home favorite. Oklahoma State, which outgained Colorado 400-251 (232-13 on the ground), has won three in a row and eight of nine, while last week’s non-cover ended a 4-1 ATS uptick. The Cowboys have scored more than 30 points in eight of 11 games this year and are averaging 33 points, 197 passing yards and 204.3 rushing yards per game
With Robinson (shoulder) out last week, second-string QB Alex Cate started and was a disaster in the first half, going 0-for-9 with one interception. Cate gave way to third-stringer Brandon Weeden in the second half, and Weeden went 10-for-15 for 168 yards with two TDs, including the game-winner with 8:11 to play. Robinson is probable to start, but if he doesn’t, Weeden will get the nod.
Oklahoma’s disappointing season continued with last Saturday’s 41-13 loss at Texas Tech as a 6½-point road favorite. The Sooners, whose first four defeats were by a total of 12 points, finished with just 16 first downs, 310 total yards and 48 rushing yards, while the normally stout defense got torched for 32 first downs, 549 total yards and 161 rushing yards, and Texas Tech held the ball for 37 minutes.
It has been feast-or-famine all year for the Sooners, who have averaged 12.4 ppg in their five losses (scoring 13 or less in four of them) and 47.3 ppg in their six victories (tallying at least 33 points in all six). Additionally, OU’s six wins were all double-digit blowouts (37.3-point average margin of victory).
Oklahoma has won six straight meetings in this rivalry (5-1 ATS, including four straight spread-covers, all as a favorite). Last year in Stillwater, the Sooners rolled 61-41 as a 10-point road favorite, following a 49-17 win as a 13½-point home chalk in 2007. Five of the last seven clashes have been double-digit blowouts, and the last time the Cowboys won in Norman was in 2002 (38-28 as a 15-point pup). The host has cashed in eight of the last 11 in this series.
Oklahoma State is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 on the highway (2-0-1 ATS this year), but is otherwise in ATS funks of 0-4 as an underdog, 11-23-1 as a road ‘dog and 7-23 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points. The Sooners are on pointspread slides of 2-5-1 overall, 2-5-1 against winning teams and 3-7 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, but they’re 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a SU loss (2-1 ATS after a defeat this year).
The under is 10-2 in the Cowboys’ last 12 on the highway and 8-1 in their last nine as a road pup, while Oklahoma carries under streaks of 9-2 overall, 4-2 at home, 5-2 in Big 12 play, 7-2 as a favorite and 8-2 against winning teams. However, five of the last seven in this rivalry have gone over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and UNDER
Florida State (6-5, 3-7 ATS) at (1) Florida (11-0, 5-5 ATS)
Tim Tebow and the rest of the Gators seniors take the field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium for the final time as Florida closes out the regular season and preps for next week’s SEC Championship Game with a non-conference battle with instate rival Florida State.
The Seminoles became bowl-eligible for the 28th consecutive season with last Saturday’s come-from-behind 29-26 victory over lowly Maryland, failing to cover as an 18-point home favorite. Trailing 26-22, Florida State got a 3-yard touchdown run from Lonnie Pryor with 32 seconds left to win for the fourth time in the last five games despite having the football for less than 23 minutes.
Florida finished regular-season SEC play with a 24-14 win at South Carolina on Nov. 14, then went out last week and embarrassed Florida International 62-3, covering as a massive 47-point home favorite. The defending champs have the nation’s longest winning streak at 21 in a row, with 19 of those victories being double-digit blowouts. The Gators are 14-5 ATS in lined action during their winning streak (all as a favorite), and they’ve held all 21 opponents to 21 points or less. This season, Urban Meyer’s defense is yielding just 9.8 points, 229.8 total yards and 139.3 passing yards per game, figures that rank first, second and first in the nation, respectively.
This has been a completely one-sided rivalry in recent years, with Florida winning five in a row (4-1 ATS). In 2007, the Gators scored a 45-12 victory as a 14-point home favorite, then they went to Tallahassee last year and posted a near-identical 45-15 rout, this time cashing as a 16-point road chalk. The Gators outgained the ‘Noles by a combined 1,043-539 margin the last two years, with Tebow accounting for nine touchdowns (six passing, three rushing).
Additionally in this series, the host is on an 11-4 ATS roll, and the favorite has cashed in nine of the last 11.
The Seminoles are in pointspread downfalls of 2-6 overall, 1-4 against opponents with a winning record and 8-21-1 after an outright victory, but they’re 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 as an underdog (4-1-2 ATS last seven as a road pup). Meanwhile, in addition to their 14-5 ATS mark during their winning streak, the Gators are also on pointspread surges of 7-3 at home, 19-7 against winning teams, 19-7 in non-conference play and 9-2 in November.
The under is 9-3 in Florida State’s last 12 games against SEC competition, but otherwise the Seminoles have been an “over” squad, posting high-scoring trends of 6-1 overall, 19-7 on the road, 13-3 as an underdog and 10-1 as a road ‘dog. The over is 15-7 in Florida’s last 22 home games, 8-3 in its last 11 non-league games and 8-3 in its last 11 in November, but the Gators are also on “under” streaks, including 7-2 overall, 6-1 against the SEC, 6-1 against winning opponents and 6-0 after a spread-cover.
Finally, the under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in this rivalry (4-1 last five years).
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER
Georgia (6-5, 3-7 ATS) at (7) Georgia Tech (10-1, 7-3 ATS)
The Bulldogs look to avenge last year’s embarrassing home loss to their instate rival and put a halt to Georgia Tech’s eight-game winning streak when these teams meet at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta.
Georgia’s roller-coaster season continued Saturday with a 34-27 home loss to Kentucky as a 9½-point favorite. The Bulldogs had a 487-260 edge in total offense, but that was offset by four turnovers, while the defense failed to force a single Kentucky miscue. Georgia has followed up a three-game winning streak by losing four of its last seven, and one of those victories came against Division I-AA Tennessee Tech (38-0).
The Yellow Jackets took last week off after pounding Duke 49-10 as a 13½-point road favorite on Nov. 14, clinching the ACC Coastal Division title and a berth in next week’s ACC Championship Game against Clemson. Not only has Georgia Tech won eight straight games, but it is 7-1 ATS and it has outgained six of the eight opponents, including four by 200 yards or more. Additionally, the Jackets have scored 30 points or more in six of their last seven games, topping the 40-point mark four times.
Georgia raced out to a 28-12 halftime lead against the Yellow Jackets last year and seemed poised to post its eighth consecutive win in this rivalry. However, Georgia Tech came out of the locker room and scored 26 unanswered points en route to a 45-42 victory as a 7½-point road underdog. In snapping the seven-game slide to the Bulldogs, the Yellow Jackets also halted 1-5-1 ATS slump in this rivalry. The road team is on a remarkable 9-1-1 ATS roll in this series, with the Dawgs winning four straight in Atlanta and going 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Bobby Dodd Stadium.
Georgia is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games against ACC opponents and 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog, but from there, the pointspread trends head downhill for the Bulldogs, including 5-14 overall, 2-5 on the highway, 3-8 after a SU defeat, 1-4 against winning teams and 1-5 in November
Not only have the Jackets cashed in seven of their last eight games, but they’re on further pointspread surges of 4-1 against the SEC and 5-1 as a favorite, but they’re 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 as a home favorite and 2-7 ATS in their last nine following a bye.
The Bulldogs are on “over” runs of 7-1 as an underdog, 5-1 as a road pup, 8-3-1 against winning teams and 5-1 in November, and the over is 6-2-1 in Georgia Tech’s last nine in November and 5-1 in its last six against the SEC. However, the under is 3-1-1 in the Jackets’ last five overall and 4-1 in their last five at home. Finally, the last two meetings between these squads topped the total, following a 5-2 “under” run.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH and OVER
(22) Utah (9-2, 4-7 ATS) at (18) BYU (9-2, 6-5 ATS)
The Cougars shoot for their fourth straight victory when they take on archrival Utah in this bitter rivalry, which this year will decide second place in the Mountain West Conference.
The Utes had a six-game winning streak halted in humbling fashion with 55-28 loss at TCU as a 20-point road underdog two weeks ago, but they bounced back quickly and destroyed San Diego State 38-7 last Saturday, easily covering as a 21-point home favorite. Utah, which led the Aztecs 35-0 at halftime, are 30-3 in their last 33 games, including 12-3 in true road games. The losses came at TCU, at Oregon back in Week 3 of this season and at BYU in the 2007 regular-season finale.
BYU ran its winning streak to three in a row with Saturday’s 38-21 dismantling of Air Force, covering as an eight-point home chalk. The Cougars outgained Air Force 498-300 and led 31-7 after three quarters, and like Utah, they’ve won seven of their last eight games – and like Utah, the one blemish was an ugly loss to TCU (38-7 at home). BYU has alternated spread-covers in its last five games and hasn’t cashed in consecutive contests starting the year 2-0 ATS.
Two years ago, Utah made the 45-minute drive south to Provo and took a 10-9 lead over the Cougars with just 90 seconds to play. However, BYU drove down the field quickly and scored the winning TD with 38 seconds left to pull out a 17-10 win as a 4½-point home favorite. The Utes got their revenge last year, though, walloping BYU 48-24 as a 6½-point chalk, improving to 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five.
The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six in this rivalry, but the Utes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Provo. Additionally, the favorite has cashed the last two years after the ‘dog had gotten the money in 12 of the previous 14 battles. Also, 10 of the last 12 BYU-Utah wars have been decided by a touchdown or less.
Utah has failed to cover in four of its last five road games and four straight against winning opponents, but the Utes are on ATS upticks of 25-7-1 as an underdog, 25-8-1 as a road pup, 13-4-1 when catching between 3½ and 10 points and 5-1 in November. The Cougars are in ATS slumps of 2-6 at home, 2-5 as a home favorite, 4-11 after a SU win and 0-4 after a spread-cover.
The under is 6-2 in Utah’s last eight games overall (5-2 in Mountain West play), but the over is 4-1 in its last five as an underdog and 4-1 in its last five in November. BYU sports high-scoring trends of 7-3 overall, 7-2 in conference, 8-2 as a favorite and 4-1 in November.
In this rivalry, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings overall, but five of the last six at Lavell Edwards Stadium have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH
(19) Miami, Fla. (8-3, 5-5 ATS) at South Florida (7-3, 3-5 ATS)
The Hurricanes will try to improve their bowl standing when they close out the regular season with a trip north to Tampa Bay for non-conference tussle against South Florida at Raymond James Stadium.
Miami bounced back from a 33-24 loss at North Carolina with a 34-16 rout of Duke last week, coming up just short as an 18½-point home favorite to fall to 1-4 ATS in its last five games (all within the ACC). The Hurricanes rallied from a 16-10 deficit and scored the final 24 points of the game, finishing with a 496-358 advantage in total offense. They’ve outgained their last three opponents by a total of 610 yards.
The Bulls also rebounded from an ugly loss last Saturday, following a 31-0 setback at Rutgers with a 34-22 home win over Louisville. However, they pushed as a 12-point home favorite despite rolling up 538 yards of total offense and holding the Cardinals to 313. South Florida has scored at least 30 points in six of its seven wins (averaging 35.6 ppg in all seven victories), while producing a total of 31 points in its three losses (all to Big East foes Cincinnati, Pitt and Rutgers).
Despite playing in the same state, these schools have met just once previously, and that was in 2005, with Miami wining 27-7 but barely misfiring as a 21-point home favorite.
The ‘Canes have cashed in six of their last seven non-conference games, but from there, it’s all negative ATS trends, including 1-4 overall, 1-5 against teams from the Big East, 16-34-1 as a favorite, 1-4 as a road favorite, 3-13 when laying between 3½ and 10 points and 1-5 in November.
South Florida is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five overall and 4-12 ATS in its last 16 against winning teams, but the Bulls have cashed in four of five as an underdog, five of six as an underdog of 3 ½ to 10 points and four straight against the ACC – including a 17-7 outright upset of Florida State as a 14-point road pup earlier this season.
Miami has stayed under the total in 35 of its last 51 non-conference games, including six straight against the Big East, but the over is 4-1 in its last five overall and 6-2 in its last eight as a road favorite. South Florida carries “over” trends of 5-1 overall, 4-0 at home and 5-2-1 in November, but the under is 11-5 in its last 16 as an underdog and 4-1 in its last five against non-conference competition.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH FLORIDA
Arkansas (7-4, 6-4 ATS) at (17) LSU (8-3, 5-6 ATS)
As per tradition, SEC rivals Arkansas and LSU close out the regular season against each other, with the Razorbacks looking to post their fifth consecutive overall victory and their third straight upset win over the Tigers.
Arkansas crushed Mississippi State 42-21 as an 11½-point home favorite, notching its fourth straight victory and third consecutive spread-cover (all at home). During the winning streak – which includes non-conference routs of Eastern Michigan and Troy – the Razorbacks have averaged 49.3 ppg while yielding just 21 ppg. However, Arkansas has lost all three of its true road games this year, all in SEC play (1-2 ATS).
LSU is hoping to recover from a painful 25-23 loss at Ole Miss last week. The Tigers blew a 14-6 first-quarter lead and trailed 25-17 with less than four minutes to play. Then they got a 25-yard TD pass from QB Jordan Jefferson, missed the game-tying two-point conversion, then recovered the onside kick and converted a miraculous fourth-and-26 with nine seconds to play. However, because it was out of timeouts, LSU couldn’t stop the clock, and it chose not to rush the field-goal unit onto the field for a potential game-winning kick. The clock expired with Jefferson inexplicably spiking the ball.
The Tigers were on the short end of a 426-290 total yardage discrepancy at Ole Miss, but still managed to cover as a 4½-point road underdog, improving to 4-2 ATS in their last six. Following a seven-game stretch in which the defense gave up 13 points or less six times, LSU has surrendered an average of 21.6 ppg in the last three.
Arkansas has pulled off back-to-back thrilling upsets in this rivalry, winning 50-48 in triple-overtime as a 13-point road underdog in 2007, following by last year’s 31-30 win as a seven-point home pup, with the game-winning TD coming on a 24-yard pass with 21 seconds to play. LSU had won the four previous meetings (3-1 ATS), and the underdog has now covered in seven of the last 10 series battles, including four outright upsets.
The Razorbacks are on pointspread surges of 6-2 overall, 4-1 in conference, 4-0 in November, 5-0 after a SU win and 7-3 as an underdog. Meanwhile, despite covering the number four times in its last six games, LSU remains mired in a slew of ATS slumps, including 9-22-1 overall, 3-10 at home, 7-17-1 in SEC play, 1-12 in SEC home games, 3-8 as a favorite, 3-7 as a home favorite, 1-9 in November and 1-6 after a spread-cover. In fact, the Tigers haven’t covered a pointspread in three straight games since starting the 2007 season 3-0 ATS.
The under is 4-0 in Arkansas’ last four as a visitor and 4-1 in its last five as a road underdog, and LSU is on “under” stretches of 5-2 overall, 7-0 at home, 5-1 as a favorite and 6-0 as a home favorite. However, the Tigers have topped the total in 15 of 22 versus SEC rivals and 10 of 13 in November. Finally, this rivalry has seen the over hit in five of the last six years, including the last three in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARKANSAS and OVER
Notre Dame (6-5, 3-8 ATS) at Stanford (7-4 SU and ATS)
Charlie Weis likely will be coaching his final game for Notre Dame as he leads his struggling squad into Stanford Stadium for a meeting with the Cardinal in the regular-season finale for both teams.
The Irish suffered their third consecutive close defeat last Saturday, losing 33-30 to UConn in double-overtime as a six-point home favorite. Notre Dame blew leads of 14-0 and 17-10 and allowed the Huskies to run for 231 yards, ruining yet another strong game by QB Jimmy Clausen (30-for-45, 329 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs). The Irish have lost their last three by a total of 10 points, and nine of their last 10 games have been decided by seven points or less, including seven by five points or less.
After two monster upsets of ranked foes Oregon (51-42 as a seven-point home underdog) and USC (55-21 as a 10½-point road ‘dog), Stanford came crashing back down to earth last week, losing to archrival Cal 34-28 as a seven-point home chalk, costing the team a shot at the Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl berth. The Cardinal defense surrendered 477 total yards (242 rushing), but Stanford RB Toby Gerhart had another huge game, rushing for 136 yards and all four of his team’s touchdowns. Over his last three games, Gerhart has 537 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Irish own a seven-game winning streak against Stanford, and they’re 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Palo Alto. Three of the last four clashes have been decided by exactly seven points, including the last two, with Notre Dame prevailing 21-14 as a five-point road underdog in 2007 and 28-21 as a 5½-point home chalk last year. Finally, the ‘dog has taken the money three times in the last four series meetings.
Since the Irish’s 35-0 rout of Nevada as a 14-point home favorite in the season opener, the underdog has now covered the spread in each of Notre Dame’s last 10 games, and that includes three outright upsets. That said, the Irish are 2-8 ATS in those games, and they’re also 1-4 ATS in their last five November contests.
Stanford had covered in 11 consecutive home games prior to last week’s loss to Cal. Still, the Cardinal are on positive pointspread runs of 6-2 as a favorite, 12-3-1 as a home chalk, 5-2 in November, 5-1 after a non-cover and 6-2 after a SU loss.
Notre Dame topped the total in last week’s overtime game against UConn, but is still on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 13-3 on the highway, 13-5 as an underdog, 24-8-1 as a road pup, 13-6 against Pac-10 foes and 5-1-1 in November. Stanford has gone over the number in five of six overall and seven in a row in November, but Jim Harbaugh’s team is also on “under” stretches of 10-3 as a home favorite, 6-1 as a chalk of 3 ½ to 10 points, 36-14-1 after a SU loss and 29-8-1 following a non-cover. Lastly, six of the last nine in this rivalry have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD and UNDER
UCLA (6-5 SU and ATS) at (24) USC (7-3, 2-8 ATS)
The annual battle for Southern California bragging rights takes place at the L.A. Coliseum, where surging UCLA looks to close out the regular season with a rare victory over the hated Trojans.
The Bruins opened Pac-10 play with five straight losses (1-4 ATS), but they’ve bounced back to win their last three in a row (2-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 23-13 victory over Arizona State as a 4½-point home chalk. UCLA’s defense has returned to form, giving up just 43 points the last three weeks after surrendering 24 points or more during the five-game losing skid (29.2 ppg).
USC took last week off after suffering a humiliating 55-21 home loss to Stanford as a 10½-point favorite, the team’s fifth consecutive ATS setback. The 55 points allowed were the most since Pete Carroll took over as coach, and the 34-point margin of defeat was the biggest in Carroll’s tenure. It also was the first time in 29 games in the Carroll era that USC lost in November. The Trojans enter this contest having given up 27 points or more in four of their last five games (41.3 ppg allowed in those four contests), while the offense has produced just 55 points (18.3 ppg) in the last three outings.
The Trojans have owned their crosstown rivals since Carroll came on board, winning two in a row and nine of 10 meetings. Last year, USC cruised 28-7, but failed to cover as a 32-point road favorite, In fact, UCLA has cashed in three straight meetings and four of the last five (all as an underdog). Still, the Bruins are just 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to the Coliseum. Finally, the underdog is 6-3 ATS in the last nine series battles, and the host is 5-1 ATS in the last six.
The Bruins have failed to cover in four of their last five as an underdog and four of their last five against winning teams, but they’re otherwise on positive ATS rolls of 9-4 in November, 4-1 after a SU win and 7-1 when catching more than 10 points.
In addition to their five-game ATS slide (0-4 ATS in conference), the Trojans are in pointspread funks of 1-8 overall (all as a favorite), 0-3 at home, 0-5 as a double-digit favorite, 0-6 when coming off a loss of more than 20 points and 0-4 versus opponents with a winning record. On the bright side, USC is still 12-5 ATS in its last 17 after SU defeat, 11-4 ATS in its last 15 after a bye and 21-7 ATS In its last 28 in November.
UCLA carries a slew of “under” trends into this contest, including 22-8-1 overall (8-2 last 10), 6-1 on the road, 10-7-1 as an underdog, 5-0 as a road ‘dog and 7-1 in November. The under is also 33-16-2 in USC’s last 51 conference games and 5-0 in its last five after a SU defeat, but from there, the Trojans are on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 4-0 against winning teams.
Lastly, the past three meetings and four of the last five in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA and UNDER
RANDALL THE HANDLE
Notre Dame +10 over Stanford
This is probably the end of the Charlie Weis era at Notre Dame, as Weis fizzled after a successful first year coaching Tyrone Willingham’s players but has failed to make the Irish National Title contenders. The Weis era is going to be looked back on with scorn and frustration by the alumni and fans, but his players will always have his back. Charlie’s swan song comes against now overrated Stanford, who was predictably exposed by California in a game many expected them to win. Stanford was dropped from the top 25 and now will play in a high-tier bowl game, while Notre Dame will most likely play in a low-tier bowl with a new coach. Notre Dame is playing for Charlie Weis – that is for certain – and to get 10 points with a team that hasn’t lost by that margin this year is appealing. Jimmy Clausen will be playing on Sundays next season and in college football having a quarterback you can trust when taking double-digit points is a must. Notre Dame’s running game is really subpar and that forces them to have to throw to win this game against a bad Stanford secondary. Stanford has allowed 244 yards per game through the air and only has seven interceptions on the season. The Irish will take advantage and undoubtedly put up points to keep the game close, leaving Notre Dame’s defense to limit touchdowns against Stanford’s offense and keep special teams off the scoreboard. The motivation to win one for Charlie is a factor that can’t be underestimated. Teams either play to win for the coach who’s leaving or completely quit on them, and in Charlie Weis’ case his players are going to play for him until the very end. Play: #189 Notre Dame +10 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Notre Dame +10 over Stanford
This is probably the end of the Charlie Weis era at Notre Dame, as Weis fizzled after a successful first year coaching Tyrone Willingham’s players but has failed to make the Irish National Title contenders. The Weis era is going to be looked back on with scorn and frustration by the alumni and fans, but his players will always have his back. Charlie’s swan song comes against now overrated Stanford, who was predictably exposed by California in a game many expected them to win. Stanford was dropped from the top 25 and now will play in a high-tier bowl game, while Notre Dame will most likely play in a low-tier bowl with a new coach. Notre Dame is playing for Charlie Weis – that is for certain – and to get 10 points with a team that hasn’t lost by that margin this year is appealing. Jimmy Clausen will be playing on Sundays next season and in college football having a quarterback you can trust when taking double-digit points is a must. Notre Dame’s running game is really subpar and that forces them to have to throw to win this game against a bad Stanford secondary. Stanford has allowed 244 yards per game through the air and only has seven interceptions on the season. The Irish will take advantage and undoubtedly put up points to keep the game close, leaving Notre Dame’s defense to limit touchdowns against Stanford’s offense and keep special teams off the scoreboard. The motivation to win one for Charlie is a factor that can’t be underestimated. Teams either play to win for the coach who’s leaving or completely quit on them, and in Charlie Weis’ case his players are going to play for him until the very end. Play: #189 Notre Dame +10 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-CFB (8-1 CFB run since Nov 20)-Early
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Oklahoma at 12:30 ET. As the saying goes, it will be "Bedlam" in Norman on Saturday. It marks the 104th all-time meeting between the Sooners and Cowboys with Oklahoma leading the series 80-16-7. However, this game has a very different feel from most of the previous meetings. Oklahoma State is ranked 11th and enters having won eight of its last nine games to secure second place in the Big 12 South. It is the Cowboys' best finish in the 14-year history of the conference, and their six league wins is a school record. As for Oklahoma, its season went 'South' quickly, as 2008 Heisman winner Sam Bradford was hurt on Sep 5 against BYU. The Sooners lost that game 14-13 and were manhandled in their most recent game at Texas Tech, losing to the Red Raiders 41-13. They currently sit at 6-5, matching their biggest loss total since Bob Stoops took over as coach in 1999. This rivalry has typically been defined over the past decade by Oklahoma pursuing postseason 'positioning' and Oklahoma St trying to play the spoiler. This year, the schools have swapped roles. No. 11 Oklahoma State will be playing for a potential berth in the BCS. With a win at Norman, OSU could receive an at-large bid for its first BCS appearance. It marks only the third time a ranked Cowboys team will play the Sooners when Oklahoma is unranked (1945 and 1997 are the other instances). Just for the record, the opposite scenario has occurred 38 times. Oklahoma State has lost six straight Bedlam games since pulling off back-to-back upsets of top-5 Oklahoma teams at the end of the regular season in 2001 and 2002. The first one knocked the Sooners out of the national championship picture. OSU's Zac Robinson missed the team's last game (a 31-28 Thursday win against Colorado) but the QB resumed throwing over the weekend after having his streak of 34 consecutive starts snapped. Robinson had injured his shoulder and head in a collision near the end of OSU's previous game against Texas Tech. Head coach Mike Gundy said Robinson should be at "full speed" in practice and play against the Sooners. Landry Jones has taken over for Sam Bradford as Oklahoma's QB, completing 58.4% for 2,556 yards with 23 TDs and 13 INTs. He's been particularly good at home, completing 64.1% for an average of 327 YPG with 18 TDs and just four INTs. Here's the rub. Since losing to Oklahoma State in 2001 at Norman, the Sooners have won 49 of their last 50 home games and take a 29-game winning streak at Owen Field into this game. The streak represents the longest active winning streak among FBS schools and is also a school-best. Mike Gundy played at Midwest City High School and was voted Oklahoma Player of the Year in 1986. He was heavily recruited by the Sooners but in the end signed with the Oklahoma State. He became the starting QB midway through his freshman year and held the job from 1986–1989. Gundy would become the all-time leading passer in Oklahoma State and Big 8 Conference history. Over the course of four years, he threw 49 TDs and for 7,997 yards. He directed the Cowboys to bowl wins in the 1987 Sun Bowl and 1988 Holiday Bowl and also led OSU to the only three 10-win seasons in school history to date. However, he went 0-4 vs Oklahoma, losing 19-0, 29-10, 31-28 and 37-15. He got the head coaching job at Stillwater before the 2005 season and guess what? He's lost all four previous games to the Sooners by scores of 42-14, 27-21, 49-17 and 61-41. Do you really think the Cowboys, who lost at home to Houston 45-35 back on Sep 12 and at Austin to the Longhorns 41-13 on Oct 31 will really "come up big" at Norman with so much on the line? If so, I'm betting against you! Weekend Wipeout Winner 15* Oklahoma
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Oklahoma at 12:30 ET. As the saying goes, it will be "Bedlam" in Norman on Saturday. It marks the 104th all-time meeting between the Sooners and Cowboys with Oklahoma leading the series 80-16-7. However, this game has a very different feel from most of the previous meetings. Oklahoma State is ranked 11th and enters having won eight of its last nine games to secure second place in the Big 12 South. It is the Cowboys' best finish in the 14-year history of the conference, and their six league wins is a school record. As for Oklahoma, its season went 'South' quickly, as 2008 Heisman winner Sam Bradford was hurt on Sep 5 against BYU. The Sooners lost that game 14-13 and were manhandled in their most recent game at Texas Tech, losing to the Red Raiders 41-13. They currently sit at 6-5, matching their biggest loss total since Bob Stoops took over as coach in 1999. This rivalry has typically been defined over the past decade by Oklahoma pursuing postseason 'positioning' and Oklahoma St trying to play the spoiler. This year, the schools have swapped roles. No. 11 Oklahoma State will be playing for a potential berth in the BCS. With a win at Norman, OSU could receive an at-large bid for its first BCS appearance. It marks only the third time a ranked Cowboys team will play the Sooners when Oklahoma is unranked (1945 and 1997 are the other instances). Just for the record, the opposite scenario has occurred 38 times. Oklahoma State has lost six straight Bedlam games since pulling off back-to-back upsets of top-5 Oklahoma teams at the end of the regular season in 2001 and 2002. The first one knocked the Sooners out of the national championship picture. OSU's Zac Robinson missed the team's last game (a 31-28 Thursday win against Colorado) but the QB resumed throwing over the weekend after having his streak of 34 consecutive starts snapped. Robinson had injured his shoulder and head in a collision near the end of OSU's previous game against Texas Tech. Head coach Mike Gundy said Robinson should be at "full speed" in practice and play against the Sooners. Landry Jones has taken over for Sam Bradford as Oklahoma's QB, completing 58.4% for 2,556 yards with 23 TDs and 13 INTs. He's been particularly good at home, completing 64.1% for an average of 327 YPG with 18 TDs and just four INTs. Here's the rub. Since losing to Oklahoma State in 2001 at Norman, the Sooners have won 49 of their last 50 home games and take a 29-game winning streak at Owen Field into this game. The streak represents the longest active winning streak among FBS schools and is also a school-best. Mike Gundy played at Midwest City High School and was voted Oklahoma Player of the Year in 1986. He was heavily recruited by the Sooners but in the end signed with the Oklahoma State. He became the starting QB midway through his freshman year and held the job from 1986–1989. Gundy would become the all-time leading passer in Oklahoma State and Big 8 Conference history. Over the course of four years, he threw 49 TDs and for 7,997 yards. He directed the Cowboys to bowl wins in the 1987 Sun Bowl and 1988 Holiday Bowl and also led OSU to the only three 10-win seasons in school history to date. However, he went 0-4 vs Oklahoma, losing 19-0, 29-10, 31-28 and 37-15. He got the head coaching job at Stillwater before the 2005 season and guess what? He's lost all four previous games to the Sooners by scores of 42-14, 27-21, 49-17 and 61-41. Do you really think the Cowboys, who lost at home to Houston 45-35 back on Sep 12 and at Austin to the Longhorns 41-13 on Oct 31 will really "come up big" at Norman with so much on the line? If so, I'm betting against you! Weekend Wipeout Winner 15* Oklahoma
Sports Betting Professor.
He is an answer to John Morrisons system. He uses a 3 game chase as well, but no buying points and no huge moneylines.
The games that are included in his system is the games marked with a *
Ok St., New Mexico St., Arizona St.
All the other plays are ones that fit his system, but are not considered "Official" system plays that his record is based off of. After 3 straight * marked losses it is considered a system loss.
As always, picks are against the pointspread and not just to win outright. Saturday's NCAA Picks:
12:00 PM EST round
Oklahoma St. +8*
North Carolina St. +6
Mississippi St. +8
UAB +3.5
3:30 PM EST round
Arizona St. +3.5*
Utah +8
Maryland +6
South Florida +7
7:00 PM EST round
New Mexico St. +12*
Kentucky +3.5
Georgia +8
Notre Dame +10
10:00 PM EST round
UCLA +13
Hawaii +10
He is an answer to John Morrisons system. He uses a 3 game chase as well, but no buying points and no huge moneylines.
The games that are included in his system is the games marked with a *
Ok St., New Mexico St., Arizona St.
All the other plays are ones that fit his system, but are not considered "Official" system plays that his record is based off of. After 3 straight * marked losses it is considered a system loss.
As always, picks are against the pointspread and not just to win outright. Saturday's NCAA Picks:
12:00 PM EST round
Oklahoma St. +8*
North Carolina St. +6
Mississippi St. +8
UAB +3.5
3:30 PM EST round
Arizona St. +3.5*
Utah +8
Maryland +6
South Florida +7
7:00 PM EST round
New Mexico St. +12*
Kentucky +3.5
Georgia +8
Notre Dame +10
10:00 PM EST round
UCLA +13
Hawaii +10
Brandon Lang Saturday's Selections ... NOTE: Amazing.
It was only a 5 dimer, but winning games like Colorado on the last play of the game is why you put the friendly wager on games.
Forget the fact they should have covered easily, and you could make a case they deserved the cover and it should have never come down to that.
But it did, and I got it and I've always said when you are going good, you are going to win games like that, and I think it's pretty obvious things are going good.
Really in the zone. My NFL run has been the talk of the industry the last 4 weeks at 14-1-2 off of the 75 dime winner on Indy last Sunday, Titans Monday, and Denver Thursday.
All I needed was to catch fire in college to match the pro's, and we are home free.
Folks, I did that yesterday with the top play on Wyoming and the miracle cover with Colorado.
Now I need to come right back with 2 more winners, make it 4 straight winners in college football, and look to improve on the 7-0-2 run the last 3 Sundays.
Are you ready? Are you ready to be a winner today? I hope so because I have 2 games that just like yesterday I feel will get the job done.
Let's get it on.
20 DIME - SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES - Live dog here today.
After their heartbreaking loss to Louisville on the road 25-23, and their season slipping away, the Golden Eagles flat-out found it.
They came home to blow out Memphis by 20, Tulane by 37, and off a heartbreaking loss at Houston in the final seconds 50-43, they turn right around and go back on the road and beat Marshall 27-20.
They return home to beat Tulsa by 10, and all of a sudden they are a game away from the Conference USA Championship Game.
What makes this team even more appealing to me, other than the fact Southern Miss is playing their best ball of the entire year right now, is the fact they are playing in a venue they love.
They have won 11 of the last 13 games played at ECU, including 7 in a row!
They have had that kind of success here and I am getting close to a touchdown?
This line is a bit inflated off the big win by ECU last week over UAB, but a closer look tells a different story.
UAB had a 24-14 first down edge and a 520-325 yard edge as well.
In the first half UAB went on an 11 play, 85 yard drive, and settled for a 27-yard field goal. They missed a 47-yard field goal, fumbled at their own 45, and were stuck on downs at the ECU 19 yard line.
ECU had a field goal drive kept going with a roughing the punter penalty, and with 8 seconds to go in the half and UAB going in, an 89 yard INT set up a late ECU field goal.
So despite a 241-201 yard edge, UAB was down 23-3 and in the 2nd half, they missed a 42 yard field goal and after another 12 play 80 yard drive they settled for another 33 yard field goal making it 23-6.
ECU promptly returns the ensuing kickoff 99 yards and for all intets and purposes, game over.
This line should be no more than 3 points, but I believe off the inflated final score of ECU over UAB, you are getting great value here and it's value I won't pass up.
If UAB, with the # 32 best offense in the country can outgain ECU by almost a 2-1 margin, I'm confident Southern Miss can do the same with the # 31st best offense.
And the bottom line is it wouldn't suprise me if Southern Miss won the game outright and is off for their rematch with Houston in the Conference USA Championship game.
5 DIME - OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS - The bottom line is this is one of the few times Oklahoma State is flat-out the better team.
They come in here 9-2, including a perfect 3-0 on the road, and they are catching the Sooners in a rare bad year.
If ever there was a time for the Cowboys to handle their business against their arch nemisis, this is the day.
Disappointment comes in many forms, and for the Sooners of Oklahoma, who had dreams of playing for a National Championship with their Heisman Trophy winning QB, this season is a huge disappointment.
What is Bob Stoops using for motivation in this game? Win this game today, get to 7-5, and let's go play in the Big Blue Bucket of Chicken Bowl Game against the 4th best team in the PAC-10, after playing in the National Championship Game last year!?!?!!?
I know all about the trends favoring the Sooners here, winning the last 6 SU, and covering 4 straight, and 5 of the last 6 in this series.
But, and this is a very big but, the Cowboys bring the better all around team into this matchup.
Just to let you know how this flat-out isn't the same Oklahoma team we are used to seeing, the only reference you need is last weeks 41-13 loss to Texas Tech.
They got drilled, humiliated, which tells me they have mailed it in and will struggle to cover this number today.
My feeling is Oklahoma State takes them down to the wire and your value is with the dog getting more than a touchdown.
5 DIME - SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS - (Note: If line is 3 you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2) - If you can battle the best team in the country at home, you can do one better and beat Clemson today.
We are seeing a trend this weekend with teams who are playing their rivalry game with their conference championship game waiting for them next week failing to cover the number.
So far Texas, Alabama, and Nebraska all failed to cover, and considering the old ball coach has had extra time to prepare and is 2-0 as a home dog this year, I will take my chances.
I wasn't very impressed with the effort of Clemson against Virginia last week, as the Cavaliers gave the Tigers a game in Death Valley.
I am talking about a Virginia that was blown out all over the place this year to the tune of 35 at Miami, and 24 at home to Georgia Tech.
This South Carolina team has been competitive in every single game this year with exception of their back-to-back road efforts at Tennessee, and Arkansas.
Love the number, the situation and the spot in which South Carolina catches Clemson in today, and just like the other 3 teams who failed to cover with a guaranteed spot in the conference championship games locked up win or lose, I will gladly take the home dog.
FREE SELECTION - ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS
It was only a 5 dimer, but winning games like Colorado on the last play of the game is why you put the friendly wager on games.
Forget the fact they should have covered easily, and you could make a case they deserved the cover and it should have never come down to that.
But it did, and I got it and I've always said when you are going good, you are going to win games like that, and I think it's pretty obvious things are going good.
Really in the zone. My NFL run has been the talk of the industry the last 4 weeks at 14-1-2 off of the 75 dime winner on Indy last Sunday, Titans Monday, and Denver Thursday.
All I needed was to catch fire in college to match the pro's, and we are home free.
Folks, I did that yesterday with the top play on Wyoming and the miracle cover with Colorado.
Now I need to come right back with 2 more winners, make it 4 straight winners in college football, and look to improve on the 7-0-2 run the last 3 Sundays.
Are you ready? Are you ready to be a winner today? I hope so because I have 2 games that just like yesterday I feel will get the job done.
Let's get it on.
20 DIME - SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES - Live dog here today.
After their heartbreaking loss to Louisville on the road 25-23, and their season slipping away, the Golden Eagles flat-out found it.
They came home to blow out Memphis by 20, Tulane by 37, and off a heartbreaking loss at Houston in the final seconds 50-43, they turn right around and go back on the road and beat Marshall 27-20.
They return home to beat Tulsa by 10, and all of a sudden they are a game away from the Conference USA Championship Game.
What makes this team even more appealing to me, other than the fact Southern Miss is playing their best ball of the entire year right now, is the fact they are playing in a venue they love.
They have won 11 of the last 13 games played at ECU, including 7 in a row!
They have had that kind of success here and I am getting close to a touchdown?
This line is a bit inflated off the big win by ECU last week over UAB, but a closer look tells a different story.
UAB had a 24-14 first down edge and a 520-325 yard edge as well.
In the first half UAB went on an 11 play, 85 yard drive, and settled for a 27-yard field goal. They missed a 47-yard field goal, fumbled at their own 45, and were stuck on downs at the ECU 19 yard line.
ECU had a field goal drive kept going with a roughing the punter penalty, and with 8 seconds to go in the half and UAB going in, an 89 yard INT set up a late ECU field goal.
So despite a 241-201 yard edge, UAB was down 23-3 and in the 2nd half, they missed a 42 yard field goal and after another 12 play 80 yard drive they settled for another 33 yard field goal making it 23-6.
ECU promptly returns the ensuing kickoff 99 yards and for all intets and purposes, game over.
This line should be no more than 3 points, but I believe off the inflated final score of ECU over UAB, you are getting great value here and it's value I won't pass up.
If UAB, with the # 32 best offense in the country can outgain ECU by almost a 2-1 margin, I'm confident Southern Miss can do the same with the # 31st best offense.
And the bottom line is it wouldn't suprise me if Southern Miss won the game outright and is off for their rematch with Houston in the Conference USA Championship game.
5 DIME - OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS - The bottom line is this is one of the few times Oklahoma State is flat-out the better team.
They come in here 9-2, including a perfect 3-0 on the road, and they are catching the Sooners in a rare bad year.
If ever there was a time for the Cowboys to handle their business against their arch nemisis, this is the day.
Disappointment comes in many forms, and for the Sooners of Oklahoma, who had dreams of playing for a National Championship with their Heisman Trophy winning QB, this season is a huge disappointment.
What is Bob Stoops using for motivation in this game? Win this game today, get to 7-5, and let's go play in the Big Blue Bucket of Chicken Bowl Game against the 4th best team in the PAC-10, after playing in the National Championship Game last year!?!?!!?
I know all about the trends favoring the Sooners here, winning the last 6 SU, and covering 4 straight, and 5 of the last 6 in this series.
But, and this is a very big but, the Cowboys bring the better all around team into this matchup.
Just to let you know how this flat-out isn't the same Oklahoma team we are used to seeing, the only reference you need is last weeks 41-13 loss to Texas Tech.
They got drilled, humiliated, which tells me they have mailed it in and will struggle to cover this number today.
My feeling is Oklahoma State takes them down to the wire and your value is with the dog getting more than a touchdown.
5 DIME - SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS - (Note: If line is 3 you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2) - If you can battle the best team in the country at home, you can do one better and beat Clemson today.
We are seeing a trend this weekend with teams who are playing their rivalry game with their conference championship game waiting for them next week failing to cover the number.
So far Texas, Alabama, and Nebraska all failed to cover, and considering the old ball coach has had extra time to prepare and is 2-0 as a home dog this year, I will take my chances.
I wasn't very impressed with the effort of Clemson against Virginia last week, as the Cavaliers gave the Tigers a game in Death Valley.
I am talking about a Virginia that was blown out all over the place this year to the tune of 35 at Miami, and 24 at home to Georgia Tech.
This South Carolina team has been competitive in every single game this year with exception of their back-to-back road efforts at Tennessee, and Arkansas.
Love the number, the situation and the spot in which South Carolina catches Clemson in today, and just like the other 3 teams who failed to cover with a guaranteed spot in the conference championship games locked up win or lose, I will gladly take the home dog.
FREE SELECTION - ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS
VR
168 Florida -24.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 167 Florida St.
Analysis:
*** "1st" NCAAFB 3* "TRUE STEAM" GAME OF THE WEEK ***
Last Sunday, we Cashed our 1st NFL "True Steam" GOW...Which was one of those bets that the sportsbooks were actually rooting for the Wiseguys to Win...Because the "Public Money" usually outweighs the "Wiseguy Money" in the NFL...And does so as well in NCAAFB, especially when there are "Marquee" teams involved...or when it's a "Prime-Time" Televised Game...
And once again this week...we are getting down on a Bet, that the books will almost definitely be cheering in as well...Because after having adjusted the number after being "Steamed" by the Betting Syndicates on 2 seperate days...from what I've been told, the "Public Money" continues to come in on the other side...And the books expect that trend to continue as we approach kick-off on Saturday...Which is when the majority of recreational bettors take their positions...
This week, we have an "Early Steam Move" that the Wiseguys absolutely love...Because even though many times, they jump on a "marquee" favorite early...in order to get a better number than the public will later...which both allows them to attempt a "middle" if they want...or to "edge-off" at a better number than what their players are betting...since we all know that almost all of these Outfits book...that is not the case with this bet...
The reason I know this is not simply because I still have plenty of friends who move "steam"...It's also because the Wiseguys went in and bet it on seperate days...After already being aware that the recreational bettors will be on Florida State, because they "perceive" it's too many points...
But the Wiseguys disagree...and according to my own Ratings/Numbers...so do I...
Bottom Line, the Syndicates wasted no time at all laying -21, 21.5, & 22 on FLORIDA as soon as the line went up at CRIS...This forced the adjustment all the way to -23 by the end of the day on Sunday...
But the Outfits weren't finished....because on Monday, they went back and bet FLORIDA -23 & -23.5...at those shops that didn't go immediately to -24...
More importantly, I've even seen a¢s high as -24.5 out there...And the fact that the Wiseguys have not gone ahead to try and work a nice "Middle"...tells me that they really are taking a "Major Position" on this game...With that said, don't be alarmed if you see this number drop some...Because like I said, the "public" bettors are expected to take the other side...And some Outfits may go ahead and attempt a "middle" later, because -21 & +24 or better...is hard to pass up for at least some of the money bet on Florida...
Regardless...I believe we are getting plenty of VALUE even at -24...Because I made my "Fair Line" -24, where it is now...But my "TRUE LINE" was a little higher than -27, and less than -28...Which is more than enough to justify a 3 Unit Bet, when the Wiseguys help Confirm it...
Let's go ahead and lay the chalk with FLORIDA...and see if we can follow up our 1st NFL Winner...with our 1st NCAAFB Winner...of "TRUE STEAM"...VR
168 Florida -24.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 167 Florida St.
Analysis:
*** "1st" NCAAFB 3* "TRUE STEAM" GAME OF THE WEEK ***
Last Sunday, we Cashed our 1st NFL "True Steam" GOW...Which was one of those bets that the sportsbooks were actually rooting for the Wiseguys to Win...Because the "Public Money" usually outweighs the "Wiseguy Money" in the NFL...And does so as well in NCAAFB, especially when there are "Marquee" teams involved...or when it's a "Prime-Time" Televised Game...
And once again this week...we are getting down on a Bet, that the books will almost definitely be cheering in as well...Because after having adjusted the number after being "Steamed" by the Betting Syndicates on 2 seperate days...from what I've been told, the "Public Money" continues to come in on the other side...And the books expect that trend to continue as we approach kick-off on Saturday...Which is when the majority of recreational bettors take their positions...
This week, we have an "Early Steam Move" that the Wiseguys absolutely love...Because even though many times, they jump on a "marquee" favorite early...in order to get a better number than the public will later...which both allows them to attempt a "middle" if they want...or to "edge-off" at a better number than what their players are betting...since we all know that almost all of these Outfits book...that is not the case with this bet...
The reason I know this is not simply because I still have plenty of friends who move "steam"...It's also because the Wiseguys went in and bet it on seperate days...After already being aware that the recreational bettors will be on Florida State, because they "perceive" it's too many points...
But the Wiseguys disagree...and according to my own Ratings/Numbers...so do I...
Bottom Line, the Syndicates wasted no time at all laying -21, 21.5, & 22 on FLORIDA as soon as the line went up at CRIS...This forced the adjustment all the way to -23 by the end of the day on Sunday...
But the Outfits weren't finished....because on Monday, they went back and bet FLORIDA -23 & -23.5...at those shops that didn't go immediately to -24...
More importantly, I've even seen a¢s high as -24.5 out there...And the fact that the Wiseguys have not gone ahead to try and work a nice "Middle"...tells me that they really are taking a "Major Position" on this game...With that said, don't be alarmed if you see this number drop some...Because like I said, the "public" bettors are expected to take the other side...And some Outfits may go ahead and attempt a "middle" later, because -21 & +24 or better...is hard to pass up for at least some of the money bet on Florida...
Regardless...I believe we are getting plenty of VALUE even at -24...Because I made my "Fair Line" -24, where it is now...But my "TRUE LINE" was a little higher than -27, and less than -28...Which is more than enough to justify a 3 Unit Bet, when the Wiseguys help Confirm it...
Let's go ahead and lay the chalk with FLORIDA...and see if we can follow up our 1st NFL Winner...with our 1st NCAAFB Winner...of "TRUE STEAM"...VR
