Joe Gavazzi
CFB STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE WEEK …Navy (-11-)
Navy (-11) at Tulsa 7:00 ET CBC TV
Last week in this very spot, we used double digit favorite, Arkansas St., in their STEAMROLLING victory over LA Monroe by a score of (59-21). This week, we turn to another road favorite, a team who figures to double rush their opponent, a situation that gives us a 75% opportunity to cover the spread. Some may look at this as a flat spot after Navy QB Reynolds set the single season rushing TD mark in the Middies’ (55-14) wipeout of SMU (outrushed the Ponies 403-144). With undefeated Houston on deck for the AAC-West title, it is argued this could be a flat spot for Navy. The problem with that thinking is that the military discipline with which the service academies operate, seldom allows for such inferior performances. Unlike previous seasons, the Navy defense is what has led to their 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS mark with net coverage by 97 points. Rather, it is a vastly improved defense allowing just 18 PPG and 350 YPG. They will need that side of the ball to operate efficiently against an improved Tulsa attack that is averaging 37/527. But, you can’t do WHAT…without the WHAT?...SCORE WITHOUT THE BALL! And that figures to be exactly the case in this biggest fundamental mismatch on the field. That will be the Navy triple-option offense which averages 335/5.6, running against the Tulsa defensive front allowing 221/4.9. With the Navy offense and defense fully functioning, all 8 victories by the Naval Academy this year have come by double digits. No surprise if Tulsa tosses the towel in this one, as they are 2-8 ATS recently as home dog and may save their best, in searching for their 6th win, with their game against Tulane next week. Navy STEAMROLLS to their 9th consecutive double-digit victory!
CFB STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE WEEK …Navy (-11-)
Navy (-11) at Tulsa 7:00 ET CBC TV
Last week in this very spot, we used double digit favorite, Arkansas St., in their STEAMROLLING victory over LA Monroe by a score of (59-21). This week, we turn to another road favorite, a team who figures to double rush their opponent, a situation that gives us a 75% opportunity to cover the spread. Some may look at this as a flat spot after Navy QB Reynolds set the single season rushing TD mark in the Middies’ (55-14) wipeout of SMU (outrushed the Ponies 403-144). With undefeated Houston on deck for the AAC-West title, it is argued this could be a flat spot for Navy. The problem with that thinking is that the military discipline with which the service academies operate, seldom allows for such inferior performances. Unlike previous seasons, the Navy defense is what has led to their 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS mark with net coverage by 97 points. Rather, it is a vastly improved defense allowing just 18 PPG and 350 YPG. They will need that side of the ball to operate efficiently against an improved Tulsa attack that is averaging 37/527. But, you can’t do WHAT…without the WHAT?...SCORE WITHOUT THE BALL! And that figures to be exactly the case in this biggest fundamental mismatch on the field. That will be the Navy triple-option offense which averages 335/5.6, running against the Tulsa defensive front allowing 221/4.9. With the Navy offense and defense fully functioning, all 8 victories by the Naval Academy this year have come by double digits. No surprise if Tulsa tosses the towel in this one, as they are 2-8 ATS recently as home dog and may save their best, in searching for their 6th win, with their game against Tulane next week. Navy STEAMROLLS to their 9th consecutive double-digit victory!
River City Sharps
Two red hot teams face off in Eugene on Saturday as the Oregon Ducks welcome the USC Trojans to town. The Trojans have gone 4-1 under interim HC Clay Helton and control their own destiny in the Pac-12 South. The Ducks have also won four straight games and come into this game off a 38-36 victory at Stanford and the Ducks are leading the Pac-12 in scoring at 41.8 PPG and total offense 532 YPG. While Oregon has gotten some of their weapons back with Vernon Adams back in the lineup, the big problem for the Ducks is that he doesn’t play defense. The Ducks are giving up a staggering 41 PPG at home this season and we just don’t see the Ducks being able to keep USC out of the end zone, while USC’s defense will present some problems for the home team. The Sharps say…
3 Units – USC (+4.5)
Two red hot teams face off in Eugene on Saturday as the Oregon Ducks welcome the USC Trojans to town. The Trojans have gone 4-1 under interim HC Clay Helton and control their own destiny in the Pac-12 South. The Ducks have also won four straight games and come into this game off a 38-36 victory at Stanford and the Ducks are leading the Pac-12 in scoring at 41.8 PPG and total offense 532 YPG. While Oregon has gotten some of their weapons back with Vernon Adams back in the lineup, the big problem for the Ducks is that he doesn’t play defense. The Ducks are giving up a staggering 41 PPG at home this season and we just don’t see the Ducks being able to keep USC out of the end zone, while USC’s defense will present some problems for the home team. The Sharps say…
3 Units – USC (+4.5)
[h=3]Trace Adams[/h] [h=4]Saturday's Selection ...[/h] For Saturday, One & Only 2500♦ ACC Game of the Year is Pittsburgh as the small home favorite over Louisville. At 10:30 pm eastern time on Friday night, the Panthers are the -1 point favorites in Vegas and offshore.
[h=3]Gabriel DuPont[/h]
[h=3]Scott Delaney[/h] [h=4]Today's Winner[/h] My 100 Dimer is on the Akron Zips against the Buffalo Bulls. As I deliver this winner at 1 a.m. eastern, the number I see is Akron -4.
[h=3]Gabriel DuPont[/h]
First-Ever
150 DIME
College Football Release of my Career
[h=4]Tonight's winner...[/h] My 150 Dime Winner for tonight is the GEORGIA STATE PANTHERS in their Sun Belt clash against the South Alabama Jaguars. And as I release this play at 8 p.m. pacific on Friday night, the number I see is Georgia State -3 everywhere. Be sure, no matter what, you're buying the half point down with this favorite, as long as you're being offered -3 or -3.5 from your book.150 DIME
College Football Release of my Career
[h=3]Scott Delaney[/h] [h=4]Today's Winner[/h] My 100 Dimer is on the Akron Zips against the Buffalo Bulls. As I deliver this winner at 1 a.m. eastern, the number I see is Akron -4.
WAYNE ROOT
Millionaires---UCLA
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No Limit---Mississippi St
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Perfect Play---Penn St
The intangibles seem to clearly be in Penn State's favor this week. Senior Day typically brings out the best in the team, which should be especially true on Saturday as the program says farewell to the last class who played under Joe Paterno and stood by the program during the school's darkest days. Additionally, it's "white-out" day which makes it difficult for the opposing players to see fast running defensive men in the secondary. Penn State was resting during a much-needed bye week while Michigan played in a physically and emotionally draining double-overtime game at Indiana. The Penn St coaching watched game film from the IU game and may implement the same strategies. Last week, Indiana offered a blueprint on how to run on the Wolverines by attacking on stretch plays that create wide running lanes, neutralizing Michigan's ability to overpower opposing lines. This will be an emotional sendoff today and winning at State College is a very difficult task.
____________________________
Inner Circle---Baylor
College Upset of November
Baylor come to T Boone Pickens Stadium ticked off after losing to Oklahoma. Their mind set is to take it out on the other Oklahoma team; as in Oklahoma St. The Cowboys' College Football Playoff lives are at stake as the Bears roll into town looking to deal them their first loss and a blow to their hopes for a national championship. OSU may have been feeling the heat last week. The Cowboys narrowly escaped a 17-point hole against Iowa State (3-7) last week, 35-31. They may not get so lucky this week as Baylor is so much better than Iowa St. The Cowboys are second in the Big 12 in scoring defense (24.5 points) and will be tested against the most prolific offense in the nation. Baylor is number 1 in the nation in both points (54.8) and total offense (637.9 yards) per game.
Baylor is almost unstoppable from either the air or the ground. Baylor has the advantage on the ground with the conference’s No. 2 rusher Shock Linwood (1,149 yards, 9 TD) leading the team that runs for 292 yards per game. On the OSU side of the offense,
Mason Rudolph has thrown 18 touchdowns but with eight interceptions. They have not dominated in the early years contest because of untimely interceptions. Oklahoma State has won every game but lacked style points. If style points weren't there before, it's hard to believe they get there against Baylor.
_________________________________
Pinnacle---Ohio State
Double Digit Crusher of Year
Michigan St comes into the Horseshoe trying to avenge last years blowout. It's won't be happening this year. First of all, they may be too banged up at their quarterback position. Quarterback Connor Cook’s status for the game appears safe despite suffering a shoulder injury. Cook completed just six of his 20 passes for 77 yards and an interceptions against Maryland, numbers far lower than his 143 passer rating on the season. The talented front four of the Buckeyes may make his shoulder hurt even more now that they know which one to take aim. Ohio State is still undefeated thanks to running back Ezekiel Elliott’s 181 rushing yards and two scores and quarterback J.T. Barrett’s 150 passing yards against the Illini. Barrett is definitely the one to lead this team to the final four now that some issues are behind him. Urban Meyer is well aware of his quest to repeat ansd how to impress the committee with style points and bolwout to get their attention. Ohio St. lost three first-place votes in the most recent AP poll, but it had more to do with No. 3 Alabama’s blowout win at then-No. 20 Mississippi State and No. 1 Clemson’s victory at Syracuse than Ohio State’s 28-3 triumph at Illinois. The Buckeye's bring it as they are the overall No. 2 team in the nation with 13.8 points allowed per game. Ohio State’s pass rush is also third in the conference with 30 sacks this season. Look for the sacks and hard hits to take its toll on Cook. As a reminder, JT Barrett torched Michigan State for five touchdowns and 386 yards in last season’s 49-37 victory in Lansing.
Millionaires---UCLA
____________________
No Limit---Mississippi St
____________________
Perfect Play---Penn St
The intangibles seem to clearly be in Penn State's favor this week. Senior Day typically brings out the best in the team, which should be especially true on Saturday as the program says farewell to the last class who played under Joe Paterno and stood by the program during the school's darkest days. Additionally, it's "white-out" day which makes it difficult for the opposing players to see fast running defensive men in the secondary. Penn State was resting during a much-needed bye week while Michigan played in a physically and emotionally draining double-overtime game at Indiana. The Penn St coaching watched game film from the IU game and may implement the same strategies. Last week, Indiana offered a blueprint on how to run on the Wolverines by attacking on stretch plays that create wide running lanes, neutralizing Michigan's ability to overpower opposing lines. This will be an emotional sendoff today and winning at State College is a very difficult task.
____________________________
Inner Circle---Baylor
College Upset of November
Baylor come to T Boone Pickens Stadium ticked off after losing to Oklahoma. Their mind set is to take it out on the other Oklahoma team; as in Oklahoma St. The Cowboys' College Football Playoff lives are at stake as the Bears roll into town looking to deal them their first loss and a blow to their hopes for a national championship. OSU may have been feeling the heat last week. The Cowboys narrowly escaped a 17-point hole against Iowa State (3-7) last week, 35-31. They may not get so lucky this week as Baylor is so much better than Iowa St. The Cowboys are second in the Big 12 in scoring defense (24.5 points) and will be tested against the most prolific offense in the nation. Baylor is number 1 in the nation in both points (54.8) and total offense (637.9 yards) per game.
Baylor is almost unstoppable from either the air or the ground. Baylor has the advantage on the ground with the conference’s No. 2 rusher Shock Linwood (1,149 yards, 9 TD) leading the team that runs for 292 yards per game. On the OSU side of the offense,
Mason Rudolph has thrown 18 touchdowns but with eight interceptions. They have not dominated in the early years contest because of untimely interceptions. Oklahoma State has won every game but lacked style points. If style points weren't there before, it's hard to believe they get there against Baylor.
_________________________________
Pinnacle---Ohio State
Double Digit Crusher of Year
Michigan St comes into the Horseshoe trying to avenge last years blowout. It's won't be happening this year. First of all, they may be too banged up at their quarterback position. Quarterback Connor Cook’s status for the game appears safe despite suffering a shoulder injury. Cook completed just six of his 20 passes for 77 yards and an interceptions against Maryland, numbers far lower than his 143 passer rating on the season. The talented front four of the Buckeyes may make his shoulder hurt even more now that they know which one to take aim. Ohio State is still undefeated thanks to running back Ezekiel Elliott’s 181 rushing yards and two scores and quarterback J.T. Barrett’s 150 passing yards against the Illini. Barrett is definitely the one to lead this team to the final four now that some issues are behind him. Urban Meyer is well aware of his quest to repeat ansd how to impress the committee with style points and bolwout to get their attention. Ohio St. lost three first-place votes in the most recent AP poll, but it had more to do with No. 3 Alabama’s blowout win at then-No. 20 Mississippi State and No. 1 Clemson’s victory at Syracuse than Ohio State’s 28-3 triumph at Illinois. The Buckeye's bring it as they are the overall No. 2 team in the nation with 13.8 points allowed per game. Ohio State’s pass rush is also third in the conference with 30 sacks this season. Look for the sacks and hard hits to take its toll on Cook. As a reminder, JT Barrett torched Michigan State for five touchdowns and 386 yards in last season’s 49-37 victory in Lansing.
StatFox Super Situations
NHL | SAN JOSE at PITTSBURGH
Play On - Any team against the money line (PITTSBURGH) off 2 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off 2 consecutive road wins by 1 goal
26-7 since 1997. ( 78.8% | 21.8 units )
NHL | PHILADELPHIA at OTTAWA
Play On - Home Favorites against the money line (OTTAWA) poor closing team-outscored by opp by 0.2+ goals/game in third period, after a blowout win by 3 goals or more
54-16 over the last 5 seasons. ( 77.1% | 33.0 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.8 units )
NHL | SAN JOSE at PITTSBURGH
Play On - Any team against the money line (PITTSBURGH) off 2 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off 2 consecutive road wins by 1 goal
26-7 since 1997. ( 78.8% | 21.8 units )
NHL | PHILADELPHIA at OTTAWA
Play On - Home Favorites against the money line (OTTAWA) poor closing team-outscored by opp by 0.2+ goals/game in third period, after a blowout win by 3 goals or more
54-16 over the last 5 seasons. ( 77.1% | 33.0 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.8 units )
StatFox Super Situations
NBA | NEW YORK at HOUSTON
Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) averaging 7 or less steals/game on the season, first half of the season
101-53 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.6% | 42.7 units )
10-4 this year. ( 71.4% | 5.6 units )
NBA | SACRAMENTO at ORLANDO
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less
88-68 over the last 5 seasons. ( 56.4% | 44.8 units )
1-3 this year. ( 25.0% | -1.9 units )
NBA | MEMPHIS at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (SAN ANTONIO) hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days
95-49 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.0% | 41.1 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
NBA | NEW YORK at HOUSTON
Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) averaging 7 or less steals/game on the season, first half of the season
101-53 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.6% | 42.7 units )
10-4 this year. ( 71.4% | 5.6 units )
NBA | SACRAMENTO at ORLANDO
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less
88-68 over the last 5 seasons. ( 56.4% | 44.8 units )
1-3 this year. ( 25.0% | -1.9 units )
NBA | MEMPHIS at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (SAN ANTONIO) hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days
95-49 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.0% | 41.1 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
StatFox Super Situations
CBB | SIU EDWARDSVL at IUPU-FT WAYNE
Play On - Home favorites of 10 or more points (IUPU-FT WAYNE) team that had a winning record last season, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
CBB | ST JOSEPHS at FLORIDA
Play Against - Neutral court teams (ST JOSEPHS) excellent team - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% on the season, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less
80-72 over the last 5 seasons. ( 52.6% | 30.4 units )
CBB | N DAKOTA at BOWLING GREEN
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 after a loss by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
CBB | SIU EDWARDSVL at IUPU-FT WAYNE
Play On - Home favorites of 10 or more points (IUPU-FT WAYNE) team that had a winning record last season, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
CBB | ST JOSEPHS at FLORIDA
Play Against - Neutral court teams (ST JOSEPHS) excellent team - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% on the season, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less
80-72 over the last 5 seasons. ( 52.6% | 30.4 units )
CBB | N DAKOTA at BOWLING GREEN
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 after a loss by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
