Stephen Nover | CFB Total Sat, 11/19/16 - 3:30 PM
Minnesota averages just a shade under 32 points per game. If you discount a 14-7 defeat to Iowa in Week 5, the Gophers have averaged 39.4 points at home against five opponents.
The Gophers feature one of the best running backs in the country, Rodney Smith. He's rushed for more than 1,000 yards, averages 5.2 yards a carry and has scored 14 touchdowns.
Bonus Play
LSU minus 14 1/2 hosting Florida
Florida has failed to cover in its three true road games. I see that trend continuing here. LSU is coming on while the Gators a‘re racked by injuries to their skill positions, offensive line and at middle linebacker.
The Gators rank 95th in yards gained per game and are 82nd in scoring. I don't put much stock in Austin Appleby. Look for the Tigers to wear down the Gators with the running of Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice.
Ed Orgeron has been a coaching upgrade on Les Miles. The Tigers have gone 4-1 SU and ATS under Orgeron with their lone loss occurring to Alabama in a 10-0 loss.
During the last two weeks, both teams played on the road against Arkansas. LSU beat the Razorbacks, 38-10, while Florida lost to Arkansas, 31-10.
Florida is a beat-up team while LSU is who we thought they were. They just needed to change coaches.
triple-dime bet
331 Northwestern / 332 Minnesota OVER 46.0 GreekAnalysis: I'm surprised to see this total open so low. Northwestern has some excellent skill position talent. If you discount games against Ohio State and Wisconsin - both of whom have vastly better defenses than Minnesota - the Wildcats are averaging 39.7 points in their last four games. Wildcats QB Clayton Thorson is coming off a career-high 352 yards throwing while accounting for four touchdowns against Purdue. Minnesota averages just a shade under 32 points per game. If you discount a 14-7 defeat to Iowa in Week 5, the Gophers have averaged 39.4 points at home against five opponents.
The Gophers feature one of the best running backs in the country, Rodney Smith. He's rushed for more than 1,000 yards, averages 5.2 yards a carry and has scored 14 touchdowns.
Bonus Play
LSU minus 14 1/2 hosting Florida
Florida has failed to cover in its three true road games. I see that trend continuing here. LSU is coming on while the Gators a‘re racked by injuries to their skill positions, offensive line and at middle linebacker.
The Gators rank 95th in yards gained per game and are 82nd in scoring. I don't put much stock in Austin Appleby. Look for the Tigers to wear down the Gators with the running of Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice.
Ed Orgeron has been a coaching upgrade on Les Miles. The Tigers have gone 4-1 SU and ATS under Orgeron with their lone loss occurring to Alabama in a 10-0 loss.
During the last two weeks, both teams played on the road against Arkansas. LSU beat the Razorbacks, 38-10, while Florida lost to Arkansas, 31-10.
Florida is a beat-up team while LSU is who we thought they were. They just needed to change coaches.
XpertPicks
SATURDAY
FOOTBALL
Play Kansas State +1 over Baylor---Top Play (NCAA) (1000 Units)
Baylor has lost 21 of the last 29 games against the spread after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games and they have lost 7 of the last 10 games against the spread when playing in the month of November. Baylor has lost 11 of the last 16 games against the spread coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have lost 29 of the last 44 games against the spread after failing to cover the spread in four or five of the last six games.
EXTRA FOOTBALL PLAYS
Play West Virginia +2.5 over Oklahoma (NCAA) (500 Units)
Play East Carolina +7 over Navy (NCAA) (500 Units)
Play Mississippi State -1 over Arkansas (NCAA) (500 Units)
SATURDAY
FOOTBALL
Play Kansas State +1 over Baylor---Top Play (NCAA) (1000 Units)
Baylor has lost 21 of the last 29 games against the spread after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games and they have lost 7 of the last 10 games against the spread when playing in the month of November. Baylor has lost 11 of the last 16 games against the spread coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have lost 29 of the last 44 games against the spread after failing to cover the spread in four or five of the last six games.
EXTRA FOOTBALL PLAYS
Play West Virginia +2.5 over Oklahoma (NCAA) (500 Units)
Play East Carolina +7 over Navy (NCAA) (500 Units)
Play Mississippi State -1 over Arkansas (NCAA) (500 Units)
StatFox Super Situations
CFB*|*OHIO ST*at*MICHIGAN ST
Play On - A road team (OHIO ST) allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB
46-18*since 1997.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)
2-2*this year.**(*50.0%*|*-0.2 units*)
CFB*|*S FLORIDA*at*SMU
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (S FLORIDA) excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games
42-20*over the last 10 seasons.**(*67.7%*|*0.0 units*)
5-6*this year.**(*45.5%*|*0.0 units*)
CFB*|*OLE MISS*at*VANDERBILT
Play Against - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (OLE MISS) off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season
41-15*since 1997.**(*73.2%*|*24.5 units*)
3-2*this year.**(*60.0%*|*0.8 units*)
CFB*|*MARSHALL*at*FLA INTERNATIONAL
Play Over - Any team vs the the 1rst half total in a game involving two poor teams (outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP), in conference games
46-18*over the last 5 seasons.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)
6-4*this year.**(*60.0%*|*1.6 units*)
CFB*|*OHIO ST*at*MICHIGAN ST
Play On - A road team (OHIO ST) allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB
46-18*since 1997.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)
2-2*this year.**(*50.0%*|*-0.2 units*)
CFB*|*S FLORIDA*at*SMU
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (S FLORIDA) excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games
42-20*over the last 10 seasons.**(*67.7%*|*0.0 units*)
5-6*this year.**(*45.5%*|*0.0 units*)
CFB*|*OLE MISS*at*VANDERBILT
Play Against - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (OLE MISS) off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season
41-15*since 1997.**(*73.2%*|*24.5 units*)
3-2*this year.**(*60.0%*|*0.8 units*)
CFB*|*MARSHALL*at*FLA INTERNATIONAL
Play Over - Any team vs the the 1rst half total in a game involving two poor teams (outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP), in conference games
46-18*over the last 5 seasons.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)
6-4*this year.**(*60.0%*|*1.6 units*)
WAYNE ROOT
MILL--Oregon +
No Limit--Mississippi State -
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Perfect Play--California +
It's a battle of the band, plenty of rushing and lots of passing in this 110th time played rival game. For Cal, Davis Webb has been slinging the rock all season long, and it continued in the loss to Wazzu. Webb completed 34-of-53 passes for 425 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. He found true freshman Demetris Robertson for one of those touchdowns. Robertson ended up with six grabs for 141 yards. Bug Rivera and Jordan Veasy caught the other two touchdowns and combined for nine catches and 102 yards. The Bears put up a ton of points, plenty of yards, and played in wild game after wild game – with wins over Texas and Utah making a big difference on a national scale – but there’s absolutely no defense whatsoever. But the PAC-12 is not known for defense. Stanford is known for running the ball. Hopefully to eat up the clock and as a double digit favorite, make it hard to cover that many points on the road. With a home crowd for rivalry week, and the must-win stakes at play, Cal needs to come out aggressively early. That means offensive coordinator Jake Spavital emptying the playbook early, and defensive coordinator Art Kaufman throwing everything he has in hopes of disrupting the Stanford. Cal just needs to limit Christian McCaffrey's yards to normal and play to a lower scoring game to get the cover. Finally, with an upset, the Cal band will get on the field!
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Inner Circle--Wyoming +
This game has San Diego St moving from sunny California surf weather to the cold cold weather of Wyoming. It’s the Mountain West title game preview if Wyoming wins its last two games. San Diego State has already clinched the West, and now it’s just playing for fun. Laying points on the road in a game you just want over rarely works. Wyoming’s been amazing at home, shocking Boise State, winning a thriller over Northern Illinois, and getting the offense going to a whole other level, scoring 30 points or more in ever game but the losses to Nebraska and Eastern Michigan on the road. On the season, Wyoming averages 443.3 yards of total offense per game (222.1ypg rushing, 221.1 ypg passing). The strength of this Wyoming team is their offense so they will have to hope they can use that and energy of the crowd to pull of the upset. Wyoming still controls its own destiny in the race for the division title, but there is no more room for error and will play accordingly. The Cowboys are home on the range and licking their wounds coming off a incredible loss against UNLV. (69-66 3ot). They know that this home game against the Aztecs is their last shot at a spot in the championship game.
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Pinnacle--UCLA + ***College Rivalry Game of Year
Let's look for some great reasons to bet UCLA. First and foremost is that this is a huge rival game. USC is all giddy and not focused after their huge win at Washington last week. SC has won 6 straight games for the first time since '11. Going for 7 in a row is a daunting task. This is only the 11th time in their 85 year history they are playing under the lights at night. Things tend to be a little crazier. UCLA, in an offensive PAC 12 league where 50 points is the norm, has only allowed 27 points or more ONCE. That's an incredible feat in itself. Defensive end Takkarist McKinley leads the nation with 2.0 tackles per loss per game. A 6'2”, 265-pound senior defensive end, McKinley has quietly had a monster season that has seen him rack up 10 sacks and 18 tackles for loss. Offensively for UCLA, star QB Josh Rosen went down 4 games ago. Coach Mora said he has given away only two game balls in his nearly five seasons at UCLA. The second went to quarterback Mike Fafaul last Saturday. What a vote of confidence for the Bruins. The glaring stat that most amateurs go by is the win/loss record. But keep in mind, the Bruins had their shot in each of the six losses, and there but for one play here or there, this could’ve been a far different season. That's what makes a game like this so desirable. Getting double digits on a game where the public is all on one side is what we look for in betting. Teams play above their heads in rivalry games, and strange things happen when USC and UCLA face each other as witnessed over and over. The pressure McKinley puts on the pocket has enabled UCLA to defend the pass relatively well. The Bruins have intercepted 13 passes and allowed only eight touchdowns, tied for 7th fewest in the country. That's how spreads are covered.
