Cajun-Sports CFB Executive-Saturday
SATURDAY 11/15/2008
12:00 PM EST
4 STAR SELECTION
Northwestern +3½ over MICHIGAN
The Wolverines close out their 2008 home slate this weekend, as they host the Wildcats in a Big Ten tussle in Ann Arbor. Already guaranteed its first losing season since 1967, Michigan stunned Minnesota 29-6 last weekend to put a stop to a five-game slide.
Northwestern is coming off its worst performance of the season, a 45-10 beating at the hands of Ohio State last weekend. The WildCats have been especially tough on the road this season, posting three wins against just one loss.
Overwhelming losses to the Buckeyes have become the norm at Northwestern. With last week's 35-point home defeat, that meant the Wildcats have lost the last four years to the Buckeyes by a combined 205-34 count. Northwestern, however, is a program based on response — and the Wildcats have done a solid job of forgetting about those whippings by the following Saturday.
We often look to play ON a team off a nationally televised blowout loss, as Northwestern is here. As an old handicapper proverb states, “a team is never as good or as bad as its last game”. Blowouts do happen, and when they occur on a national stage, they can leave a lasting impression on viewers. The public regards the losing team as woeful and won’t want to touch them the following week. The oddsmakers know this and adjust the line accordingly, providing good value on the losing team.
We also like to play ON a team that is showing positive signs with a coach in his 3rd year. Some coaching changes do bring about immediate results but that is the exception, not the rule. Many times, a college coach will hit his stride in his 3rd year, especially if the coach has done well recruiting. By year #3, his own recruits will be playing 1st string and the team is well-adjusted to all the news systems and techniques that the new coach has implemented. Teams that are not being hyped in a coach’s 3rd year, despite improvement from year 1 to year 2, should provide tremendous line value. Pat Fitzgerald has the Wildcats program on the rise in his 3rd season, as they have a great shot at having their best season since 2000.
Northwestern has some solid numbers in their favor here, as they are:
12-0 ATS (+9.9 ppg) off a Saturday SU loss as a favorite of less than 16 points or underdog of less than 13 points;
10-2 SU (+7.9 ppg) & 11-0-1 ATS (+12.2 ppg) as a road underdog of less than 8 points vs. an opponent not off a favorite SU win of 12+ points
Michigan is preparing for two completely different looks this week. Starting WildCats QB C.J. Bacher is still hobbling with a hamstring injury. If he were to miss a third straight game, Mike Kafka would start in his place. Kafka is a scrambler who has rushed for exactly 300 yards, vaulting him to second on the team in rushing despite playing in just two games. Bacher is mobile, but is a better passer than Kafka. Trying to prepare for both quarterbacks will be difficult for a defense that has been inconsistent.
The Wolverines enjoyed a win last week, but their success is likely short-lived as they are:
0-4 SU (-15.2 ppg) & 0-4 ATS (-17.8 ppg) off a SU win since last year;
1-5 SU (-9 ppg) & 0-6 ATS (-15.9 ppg) as a favorite since last year;
0-4 ATS this year at home vs. opponents with revenge;
0-5 ATS this season vs. opponents playing with at least triple revenge.
Additionally, after snapping a losing streak with a road underdog win, teams returning home have been ill-equipped for the role of favorite in a competitive game as documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
From Game 7 on, play AGAINST a favorite of 9 points or less off a road SU win as an underdog in its last game and 3 SU losses before that vs. an opponent not off an ATS loss of 11+ points.
Since 1991, teams like Michigan in this spot have gone 0-14 ATS, including Miami, Ohio’s 33-point loss as a 5½-point favorite a few weeks ago.
We also play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'.
Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. About 8% of all college football games end with a 3-point SU winner and slightly more than 6% end with a 7-point margin. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait and the favorite, especially if the line move did not happened a day or more after the number was put up. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number.
That’s exactly what has happened here, as Michigan opened as a favorite of 2½ points, but has seen that balloon to 3½ points, providing us with great line value here. We’ll take the WildCats and all the points we can get, although we like their chances of winning this game outright.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NORTHWESTERN 20 MICHIGAN 17
3:30 PM EST
4 STAR SELECTION
South Carolina +22½ over FLORIDA
The third-ranked Gators host the nationally ranked Gamecocks in SEC action Saturday afternoon. Florida has steamrolled recent conference foes to win their SEC division, but still have 3 games left before the league title game against #1 Alabama.
South Carolina certainly isn't a pushover, as the squad has won two straight games and six of its last seven to improve to 7-3 overall. All three of the Gamecocks' losses have come by seven points, proof that they have been competitive even in defeat.
Florida suffered their lone loss of the season to Ole Miss by one point in late September. Since then, they have reeled off five straight victories, all by at least 28 points.
The Gamecocks are a mediocre offensive team, as the squad is posting 24 ppg to go along with 333 total ypg. The South Carolina defense, however, has been strong all season, limiting foes to less than 16 ppg and 257 total ypg. Considering the quality of the SEC opponents that the Gamecocks have faced, those numbers are extremely impressive. Opponents are gaining just over 100 rushing ypg against South Carolina on an average of only 3 ypc. With 24 sacks and 20 takeaways, the club has made a solid number of big plays.
They will certainly be challenged here, as Florida is racking up 43 ppg and over 400 total ypg this season. While QB Tim Tebow and the Florida offense garner most of the headlines, the Gator defense has been one of the nation's best units. Opponents are managing only 12 ppg and 286 total ypg against Florida.
The South Carolina defense should be able to keep the team in this game. The Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS as an underdog of more than 4 points off a SU win since 2005.
As good as the Gators are, this is a big letdown spot for them, coming off their Georgia victory and division-clinching win at Vanderbilt last week. The numbers show that they are:
0-2 ATS as a home favorite before a non-lined game;
0-6 ATS (-15.6 ppg) over the past decade as a home favorite of more than 14 points off 3 ATS wins;
0-5 ATS (-13.2 ppg) as a conference favorite of more than 17 points from Game 5 on with less than 13 days rest vs. an opponent seeking revenge for a SU loss allowing 50+ points.
While many are jumping on Florida because of their recent run of blowout wins, this streak actually qualifies the Gators for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play AGAINST a conference team off 5 SU wins of 28+ points.
This situation has been absolutely perfect as far back as the NCAA Football SportsDataBase goes, which is 1980. Since then, these teams have gone 0-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 16 points per game on average. The 2 biggest spread losses were both from Florida, and now they qualify as the “PLAY AGAINST” team for the 3rd time.
Finally, we also like to play AGAINST a team that was faded by a strong early line move and then favored by later line moves.
Early line moves are those that occur in the first few hours after the virgin lines are posted. They are to be respected. The people who move the line early are not fooling around; they are serious players who love to take shots at virgin numbers. The oddsmakers are sharp, but they have to make a line on every game and do make occasional mistakes. Bettors have the advantage of picking and choosing specific games and when they focus on specific games when they first come out, their opinion should be noted with respect. If a line moves strongly during the early period and then heads in the other direction in the normal movement period, we usually have a case for the sharp bettors on one side and the public on the other - a definite scenario for respecting the early move.
Here, Florida opened at -23, but that was quickly bet down to -21. Since then, however, the number has rose up to -22 and over. We’ll fade the flavor of the month and take all these points, as we like the Gamecocks to keep this one close against a flat Gators team.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA 28 SOUTH CAROLINA 21
3:00 PM EST
3 STAR SELECTION
East Carolina +3 over SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
The Pirates head back out on the road Saturday, as they take on the Golden Eagles in Hattiesburg. East Carolina is coming off back-to-back OT victories and has won their last 3 games, as they have got their season back on track.
Meanwhile, Southern Miss posted back-to-back wins for the first time this season by taking out Central Florida last Saturday in a 17-6 decision.
From an offensive standpoint the Pirates don't overwhelm opponents as they are scoring 23 ppg, but the defense has been superior. East Carolina is again first in Conference USA and 40th in the nation with only 326.8 ypg allowed, which has led to a league-best 21 ppg.
The Golden Eagles went from scoring a season-high 70 points versus UAB one week to squeezing out a season-low 17 in their victory last Saturday. Part of the reason why the Southern Miss offense had some struggles was because RB Damion Fletcher was not active due to a strained hamstring. Without him in the backfield the Eagles become rather ordinary, nowhere near the team that ranks second in the conference and 18th in the nation with 206.6 ypg on the ground. Without a healthy Fletcher here, they figure to continue struggling, especially against the Pirates defense.
East Carolina has allowed just 12 points and 233 yards of offense per game during their three-game winning streak. They can put a stranglehold on the C-USA East Division with a victory here, and according to our Power Ratings, they should be favorite, so we are able to play ON an underdog getting between a FG & TD of points in line value when comparing the pointspread to Power Ratings if the team is not in a “let-down” situation and the favorite is not in a “get-up” situation.
The Pirates have history on their side, as they are:
6-0 SU (+8 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+15.8 ppg) as an underdog;
15-1 SU (+6.1 ppg) & 15-0-1 ATS (+9.5 ppg) as a road underdog of less than 6 points
6-0 SU (+13.2 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+14.5 ppg) vs. opponents off 2 SU wins.
On the other hand, Southern Miss is 0-4 ATS at home off a SU win the past 2 seasons. With a rookie head coach, the Eagles are likely to be overmatched and out-coached here, as the Pirates should pull out another close win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: EAST CAROLINA 27 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 21
4:00 PM EST
3 STAR SELECTION
FLORIDA ATLANTIC +2 over Louisiana-Lafayette
The Ragin' Cajuns get back on the road and into Sun Belt Conference play on Saturday as they battle the Owls at Lockhart Stadium. Louisiana-Lafayette saw their four-game winning streak come to an end this past weekend with a 37-24 home favorite loss to UTEP.
As for Florida Atlantic, they have won three straight games since losing five of their first six games. Last week, they enjoyed a convincing, 46-13 victory over North Texas.
With Louisiana-Lafayette, we are going to play AGAINST a favorite that is allowing more than 5 yards per rush on the season from October on.
We also note that they are 0-3 ATS the last 3 seasons vs. opponents on a winning streak and not and underdog of 13+ points;
0-3 ATS (-8.7 ppg) all-time vs. Florida Atlantic;
0-2 ATS all-time as a road favorite vs. an opponent off a SU win
After a non-conference loss ended a conference winning streak, teams have had trouble getting back on track, as we expect the Rajin’ Cajuns to struggle as well. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play AGAINST a team (not a favorite of more than 19 points or underdog of 8+ points) with less than 16 days rest off a non-conference SU loss in its last game and 5 conference SU wins before that.
Since 1982, these teams are 0-14 ATS.
The Owls are the defending Sun Belt Conference Champs and they won’t go down without a fight here. Overall, Sun Belt home underdogs are 7-0 ATS (+12.7 ppg) off a SU win of 18+ points.
Also, red-hot teams with an improving offense have been very strong in games with expected to be close by the wagering public. Specifically:
Play ON a team (not a favorite of more than 2 points or underdog of 3+ points) with less than 12 days rest off 3 SU wins scoring more points in each successive game and not seeking revenge for a SU Loss of 23+ points.
Since 1988, these teams are 12-0 ATS and Florida Atlantic now qualifies. The Owls appear to be peaking right now, and we look for them to live to fight another day, as they knock off the Rajin’ Cajuns.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA ATLANTIC 31 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 24
7:00 PM EST - ESPNU
3 STAR SELECTION
Connecticut -10 over SYRACUSE
The Huskies look to get back in the win column Saturday night when they travel to take on the Orange in Big East play at the Carrier Dome. Connecticut opened this campaign with five consecutive wins, but since then the team has struggled, losing three of its last four matchups.
As for Syracuse, it has been a rough ride this season, as the team has lost seven of its nine contests, including a 35-17 setback to Rutgers last week. The Orange have struggled in the Big East since 2005, posting an ugly 3-23 ledger against league foes.
The Huskies' offense revolves around the ground game, which is churning out over 200 ypg. Donald Brown has been one of the top running backs in the nation, and is the main option for UConn, rumbling for over 1,400 yards and 15 TDs. On top of the strong ground game, the Huskies also possess a surprisingly tough defense, which is limiting the opposition to just over 300 total ypg.
Coming into this matchup the Orange are producing a meager 285 total ypg, and that has led to less than 19 ppg. The defense has been even worse for Syracuse, as the Orange have been unable to stop the pass or the run, allowing 230 ypg through the air and over 200 ypg on the ground. All that yardage has led to a whopping 33.3 ppg against this unit.
While the Orange have nothing to play for, Connecticut still has bowl hopes and needs another win to make sure they get an invite. This will allow us to:
Play ON a "bubble team" vs. an opponent in or likely to be in a bowl game or a foe that doesn't have a chance of a bowl game in a non-rivalry game.
Teams fighting for bowl eligibility should be much more motivated than those teams already in and just trying to stay healthy, and against opponents that are already thinking about next year.
In looking at some numbers, the Huskies are:
2-0 SU & ATS all-time as a favorite with 6 SU wins’
5-0 SU (+13.8 ppg) & 4-0-1 (+4.9 ppg) all-time as a favorite with 6+ SU wins;
2-0 SU & ATS all-time as a favorite vs. Syracuse;
4-0 SU (+25.8 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+15.6 ppg) all-time as a road favorite off an ATS loss
After being an underdog for 5+ games as UConn has, the oddsmakers have had good reason to make a team a road favorite of more than a TD. With this line, the Huskies qualify for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
From Game 7 on, play ON a Saturday road favorite of more than 7 points off being an underdog in its last 5 games and not 2 road contests in its last 2 games.
Since 1995, these teams are 11-0 SU (+26 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+12 ppg)
On the other hand, Syracuse is:
0-3 SU & ATS as an underdog of 3+ points in its final home game;
0-4 SU & ATS as a home underdog vs. opponents off a SU loss since last season;
0-3 SU & ATS as a home underdog off its 7th SU loss of the season;
0-4 SU (-30.2 ppg) & 0-4 ATS (-13.5 ppg) as a home underdog with 7+ SU losses;
0-6 ATS vs. opponents with 7+ days rest;
0-7 SU (-16.9 ppg) & 0-7 ATS (-10.5 ppg) as a conference underdog of less than 11 points since 2003.
We expect Greg Robinson’s tenure in Syracuse to end with a whimper, as the motivated Huskies should control this game and the Orange from start to SU & ATS finish.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CONNECTICUT 34 SYRACUSE 14
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