B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
6* W ido w W ise guy 20 09 CF B DO G OF THE YE AR on NC State +8.5(-110 at bookm)
NC State is very dangerous in the role of the underdog. They are dangerous in the second half of the season as they continue playing their best football in November. The Wolf Pack are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NC State is 6-0 ATS after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Wolf Pack are showing unbelievable value here Saturday, so much that we believe they represent the best underdog for the entire 2009 college football season. Russell Wilson is the real deal, throwing for 2,351 yards and 24 touchdowns compared to 9 interceptions this season. NC State scores 33.7 points/game and with this offense, they are never out of a ball game. Clemson allows a ridiculous 30.3 points/game on the road this season, so they'll have their hands full to say the least with this Wolf Pack offense. Clemson has played 3 road games this season, and all 3 have been decided by exactly 3 points with losses to Maryland and Georgia Tech and an overtime win against Miami. We see this game being decided by less than a touchdown, with NC State likely pulling off the upset. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Take NC State and the points.
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on Ho ust on -4.5(+100 at 5dimes)
Houston should be a much heavier favorite Saturday as they travel to Central Florida. The Cougars are 8-1 this season, they have the best offense in the country behind Heisman Candidate Case Keenum. UCF is just 5-4 this season, scoring a mere 21.8 points/game. They don't have the offense to keep up with a Houston team putting up 42.1 points/game and 578 yards/game of total offense. Houston has beaten some very good teams on the road this year, winning at Oklahoma State, at Mississippi State and at Tulsa. Those 3 teams are all better than UCF, and when you throw in their win over Texas Tech it's clear that the Cougars are the real deal. UCF is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. But the best trend of all is that UCF is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992. The Knights gave up 470 passing yards to Colt McCoy and the Longhorns last week, and now they have to deal with the best passing team in the nation. This game has blowout written all over it. Take Houston and lay the points.
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on K ent uc ky -3(-110 at betus)
Kentucky is playing their best football of the season right now, winning 3 of their last 4 games. They sit at 5-4 heading into this game with Vanderbilt, and they certainly want to clinch a bowl berth with a win Saturday. Kentucky watched Vanderbilt clinch a bowl game on their home turf last year in a 24-31 loss, and we feel they are highly motivated to return the favor this time around. Vandy has lost 6 straight games and have nothing to play for. Kentucky has played some of their best football on the road this year, going 2-1 away from home and allowing 14.0 points/game. Against a Vanderbilt offense that averages just 16.7 points/game, the Wildcats should shut 'em down Saturday. Vanderbilt is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take Kentucky and lay the points.
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on S out her n M is s -3(-109 at 5dimes)
Southern Miss should roll right over Marshall this weekend on the road. The Golden Eagles are a bit underrated right now after several brutal losses to fall to 5-4 this season. They have 3 losses by 7 points or less this season. They are 0-4 on the road, and we cannot see them losing 5 straight away from home because of the talent this team possesses. The road team has won 3 of the last 4 in this series, with Southern Miss winning each of their last 2 trips to Marshall. Southern Miss has had 2 weeks to steam over their loss to an 8-1 Houston team on the road last time out, losing 43-50 on a touchdown in the final 20 seconds. They will use this bye week to get ready for an overmatched Marshall team. Southern Miss scored 33.9 points/game and puts up 431 total yards/game. Compare that to Marshall, who is mustering just 20.8 points/game and 326 total yards/game and you can see why this is such a mismatch Saturday. The Golden Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Take Southern Miss and lay the points.
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on G eo rgi a -4(-108 at 5dimes)
This is a very generous line Saturday as the Bulldogs host the Auburn Tigers. Georgia has won the last 3 in this rivalry, and you can chalk up a 4th straight Saturday. They beat the Tigers at home in 2007 by a final of 45-20 as mere 2.5-point favorites. Auburn's defense is the reason they cannot compete at Georgia this weekend. The Tigers have allowed 30 or more points in 5 of their last 8 games, and 20 or more in all 8. They even gave up 31 points to Furman last week. Georgia's defense has been stout, especially at home where they are giving up just 18.5 points/game and have posted a 3-1 home record. Auburn has been blown out in their last 2 road games, losing 23-44 at Arkansas and losing 10-31 at LSU. Georgia won at Arkansas 52-41 and lost to LSU at home 13-20 to give you a couple common opponents, which clearly gives the Bulldogs the edge. The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. Take Georgia and lay the points.