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NCAA Week 11 Selections!!
Fri - 13 Nov Written by Randizzle
Friday Night
4*Cincinatti BearCats -9 over West Virginia
Saturday:
4*Arkansas Razorbacks -13.5 over Troy
3*Fresno State +7.5 over Nevada
3*UL-Monroe -21 over Western Kentucky
3*Houston -4.5 over Central Florida
3*Arkansas State -4 over Florida Atlantic
3*Pittsburgh -6.5 over Notre Dame
2*Utah State -12.5 over San Jose State
NCAA Week 11 Selections!!
Fri - 13 Nov Written by Randizzle
Friday Night
4*Cincinatti BearCats -9 over West Virginia
Saturday:
4*Arkansas Razorbacks -13.5 over Troy
3*Fresno State +7.5 over Nevada
3*UL-Monroe -21 over Western Kentucky
3*Houston -4.5 over Central Florida
3*Arkansas State -4 over Florida Atlantic
3*Pittsburgh -6.5 over Notre Dame
2*Utah State -12.5 over San Jose State
Wunderdog Sports
Houston U vs. Central Florida (NCAAF) - Nov 14, 2009 12:00 PM EST
Play: Point Spread: -4.5/100 Houston U Pick Title: Houston U vs. Central Florida
This is a big challenge for Central Florida as they have an offense that ranked dead last of all teams last year. They have moved up this season, but not by much as they rank 109 out of 120 teams. While the defense remains the stability of this team, they are going to see more offensive firepower here than they have seen all season. Houston had the best offense in football last year and sits atop again this season at 42 points per game. The Cougars' offense is for real as they have played against three BCS Conference schools and averaged 35 points against them! Against anyone else, the offense has been even better at 45.6 ppg. These teams didn't meet a year ago, but as a marker of UCF against an elite offense, the Knights were torched for 49 vs. Tulsa last year with their No. 43 ranked defense. This year their defense has dropped to No. 56. I find it difficult to believe that they can keep this Houston team away from 40, and the Knights have reached the 30 mark just three times in the last two years. I'm going with Houston in this one.
Houston U vs. Central Florida (NCAAF) - Nov 14, 2009 12:00 PM EST
Play: Point Spread: -4.5/100 Houston U Pick Title: Houston U vs. Central Florida
This is a big challenge for Central Florida as they have an offense that ranked dead last of all teams last year. They have moved up this season, but not by much as they rank 109 out of 120 teams. While the defense remains the stability of this team, they are going to see more offensive firepower here than they have seen all season. Houston had the best offense in football last year and sits atop again this season at 42 points per game. The Cougars' offense is for real as they have played against three BCS Conference schools and averaged 35 points against them! Against anyone else, the offense has been even better at 45.6 ppg. These teams didn't meet a year ago, but as a marker of UCF against an elite offense, the Knights were torched for 49 vs. Tulsa last year with their No. 43 ranked defense. This year their defense has dropped to No. 56. I find it difficult to believe that they can keep this Houston team away from 40, and the Knights have reached the 30 mark just three times in the last two years. I'm going with Houston in this one.
Brandon Lang
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Saturday's Selections ...
NOTE: Nice to see Temple battle back, and get me the win. Now with the winning Friday out of the way we can attack this Saturday card.
Feeling good about the possiblity of putting up a 2nd straight 3-0 sweep on Saturday and picking up +50 dimes again while I'm at it.
Nothing wrong with an 11-2 football run since last Saturday including 4 straight in the NFL but still a lot of work to go here. Just looking to continue to keep building this thing in a positive direction here in November.
I am just looking to close out 2009 with winning weeks. Did that last week, and off the winning Friday, I am in good position with a solid Saturday to make it 2 in a row.
Now let's get to your Saturday analysis.
30 DIME - DUKE BLUE DEVILS - Tough spot for Georgia Tech today.
Off their OT win at home last week versus Wake Forest, they now travel to Duke to take on the #1 pass offense in the ACC.
Folks, this is a Georgia Tech team playing for an 11th straight week. That is almost unheard of in college football.
Last week I watched Riley Skinner of Wake Forest throw for almost 300 yards on this Tech defense and if you really examine the Yellow Jackets on the road, they can be had.
Miami/Florida put up over 400 yards total offense, Mississippi State put up close to 500 yards, Florida State put up 539 yards and even Vanderbilt put up close to 400 yards.
I am aware a win puts Georgia Tech in the ACC championship game but it's not like Duke is going to just lay down for Georgia Tech. They will come to play.
If Duke can pass for 359 yards at home against the 8th best pass defense in the country Virginia Tech, your telling me they won't be able to execute against 68th?
The bottom line is Duke will never be out of this game with their passing attack and if they can force a few turnovers, they just might pull off another shocker, just as they did for me as a 16 1/2 point dog at NC State.
You remember that game right? Duke won outright by 3 touchdowns 49-28.
Duke gets the cover today.
15 DIME - AUBURN TIGERS - Who is Georgia to be laying points to anybody right now? Why, because they just beat Tennessee Tech 38-0.
This is a Bulldog team that has covered just 2 games this entire year against Arkansas and Vandy both on the road.
At home they are 0-3 ATS struggling to beat Arizona State by 3 as a 17 1/2 point favorite, South Carolina by 4 as a 6 1/2 point favorite and lost to LSU as a 3 1/2 point favorite.
I don't trust this Mark Richt Georgia team as far as I can throw them, and it wouldn't suprise me if Auburn came in here and won the game outright.
The Tigers have a huge edge on offense ranked 12th in the country, and the #1 offense in the SEC. How about those apples, while Georgia comes in ranked 88th. I will gladly take this generous amount of points with a better offense and a comparable defense.
Georgia has the 36th overall defense giving up 5.08 yards per play and 337 yards average a game versus Auburn's 5.10 yards per play. The Georgia defense isn't that much better than Auburn.
Auburn started off the year a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS when they traveled to Arkansas for an early game and the linemaker installed them as a 2 point road favorite. They got blown out.
Off that loss they fell flat at home to Kentucky and then the next week at Lsu they fell flat again.
However, they have since righted their ship with a dominating home win over Ole Miss and after their scrimmage last week versus Furman 63-31, they are ready to roll here.
The Auburn Tigers slump is over. They are ready to make another surge and I believe they will do just that here with a possible outright win.
5 DIME, 3-TEAM TEASER
OREGON, UL MONROE, KANSAS STATE
Let's start with the Ducks. This is going to be a bloodbath all day long.
The Ducks have won the last 4 in this series, and all four have been by double digits. The only thing stopping me from laying the whole ball of wax is trying to gage the emotional state of this Oregon team after last weeks loss to Stanford.
Arizona State played their heart out versus USC at home but they are walking into a hornets nest here against this Ducks team that has been lethal at home in Pac-10 play.
They beat Cal 42-3, Washington State 52-6 and Usc 47-20.
The bottom line is you start beating the USC Trojans of the world by 27 at home, and put up close to 50 doing it, I will gladly tease you down to under 10 points and take my chances.
Now UL- Monroe gets the worst team in the league at home off their 27 point win on the road against North Texas.
Simple thought would lead you to believe if you can beat a better North Texas team at their place by 27, you can handle the worst team in your conference at home by the same amount. I couldn't agree more.
However, when you are a team not used to laying 21 points against anybody, I've seen crazy things happen you can't explain. So therefore I am protecting myself a bit from those crazy things.
Over the last 4 years this LA Monroe team is 12-1 ATS their last 4 games of the year. So as you can see, this team plays very well late.
Feel much better laying less than 12 with this LA Monroe team.
As for Kansas State, they were very good to me last week in beating Kansas but with this line moving all over the place, I will move Kansas State up to getting double digits at home.
This line opened up Kansas State -2 and has moved to Missouri -1 as of Friday night. I have checked injuries, and no major ones are being reported.
A line move of this magnitude always makes me leary of somebody somewhere knowing something somebody else doesn't.
Regardless of the line move, I am jacking up Kansas State to +11 and rolling the dice with head coach Snyder, who has won 13 in a row versus Missouri.
FREE SELECTION - TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
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Saturday's Selections ...
NOTE: Nice to see Temple battle back, and get me the win. Now with the winning Friday out of the way we can attack this Saturday card.
Feeling good about the possiblity of putting up a 2nd straight 3-0 sweep on Saturday and picking up +50 dimes again while I'm at it.
Nothing wrong with an 11-2 football run since last Saturday including 4 straight in the NFL but still a lot of work to go here. Just looking to continue to keep building this thing in a positive direction here in November.
I am just looking to close out 2009 with winning weeks. Did that last week, and off the winning Friday, I am in good position with a solid Saturday to make it 2 in a row.
Now let's get to your Saturday analysis.
30 DIME - DUKE BLUE DEVILS - Tough spot for Georgia Tech today.
Off their OT win at home last week versus Wake Forest, they now travel to Duke to take on the #1 pass offense in the ACC.
Folks, this is a Georgia Tech team playing for an 11th straight week. That is almost unheard of in college football.
Last week I watched Riley Skinner of Wake Forest throw for almost 300 yards on this Tech defense and if you really examine the Yellow Jackets on the road, they can be had.
Miami/Florida put up over 400 yards total offense, Mississippi State put up close to 500 yards, Florida State put up 539 yards and even Vanderbilt put up close to 400 yards.
I am aware a win puts Georgia Tech in the ACC championship game but it's not like Duke is going to just lay down for Georgia Tech. They will come to play.
If Duke can pass for 359 yards at home against the 8th best pass defense in the country Virginia Tech, your telling me they won't be able to execute against 68th?
The bottom line is Duke will never be out of this game with their passing attack and if they can force a few turnovers, they just might pull off another shocker, just as they did for me as a 16 1/2 point dog at NC State.
You remember that game right? Duke won outright by 3 touchdowns 49-28.
Duke gets the cover today.
15 DIME - AUBURN TIGERS - Who is Georgia to be laying points to anybody right now? Why, because they just beat Tennessee Tech 38-0.
This is a Bulldog team that has covered just 2 games this entire year against Arkansas and Vandy both on the road.
At home they are 0-3 ATS struggling to beat Arizona State by 3 as a 17 1/2 point favorite, South Carolina by 4 as a 6 1/2 point favorite and lost to LSU as a 3 1/2 point favorite.
I don't trust this Mark Richt Georgia team as far as I can throw them, and it wouldn't suprise me if Auburn came in here and won the game outright.
The Tigers have a huge edge on offense ranked 12th in the country, and the #1 offense in the SEC. How about those apples, while Georgia comes in ranked 88th. I will gladly take this generous amount of points with a better offense and a comparable defense.
Georgia has the 36th overall defense giving up 5.08 yards per play and 337 yards average a game versus Auburn's 5.10 yards per play. The Georgia defense isn't that much better than Auburn.
Auburn started off the year a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS when they traveled to Arkansas for an early game and the linemaker installed them as a 2 point road favorite. They got blown out.
Off that loss they fell flat at home to Kentucky and then the next week at Lsu they fell flat again.
However, they have since righted their ship with a dominating home win over Ole Miss and after their scrimmage last week versus Furman 63-31, they are ready to roll here.
The Auburn Tigers slump is over. They are ready to make another surge and I believe they will do just that here with a possible outright win.
5 DIME, 3-TEAM TEASER
OREGON, UL MONROE, KANSAS STATE
Let's start with the Ducks. This is going to be a bloodbath all day long.
The Ducks have won the last 4 in this series, and all four have been by double digits. The only thing stopping me from laying the whole ball of wax is trying to gage the emotional state of this Oregon team after last weeks loss to Stanford.
Arizona State played their heart out versus USC at home but they are walking into a hornets nest here against this Ducks team that has been lethal at home in Pac-10 play.
They beat Cal 42-3, Washington State 52-6 and Usc 47-20.
The bottom line is you start beating the USC Trojans of the world by 27 at home, and put up close to 50 doing it, I will gladly tease you down to under 10 points and take my chances.
Now UL- Monroe gets the worst team in the league at home off their 27 point win on the road against North Texas.
Simple thought would lead you to believe if you can beat a better North Texas team at their place by 27, you can handle the worst team in your conference at home by the same amount. I couldn't agree more.
However, when you are a team not used to laying 21 points against anybody, I've seen crazy things happen you can't explain. So therefore I am protecting myself a bit from those crazy things.
Over the last 4 years this LA Monroe team is 12-1 ATS their last 4 games of the year. So as you can see, this team plays very well late.
Feel much better laying less than 12 with this LA Monroe team.
As for Kansas State, they were very good to me last week in beating Kansas but with this line moving all over the place, I will move Kansas State up to getting double digits at home.
This line opened up Kansas State -2 and has moved to Missouri -1 as of Friday night. I have checked injuries, and no major ones are being reported.
A line move of this magnitude always makes me leary of somebody somewhere knowing something somebody else doesn't.
Regardless of the line move, I am jacking up Kansas State to +11 and rolling the dice with head coach Snyder, who has won 13 in a row versus Missouri.
FREE SELECTION - TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
BRYAN LEONARD'S SEC MONEY MAKER
185/186 Alabama at Mississippi State
Is it possible the Tide peak too early? It's starting to look that way after three straight unimpressive victories. They beat South Carolina 20-6, Tennessee 12-10 and LSU 24-15 all at home in Tuscaloosa. While the defense has been terrific all season long the offense is showing plenty of weakness. Alabama hasn't surpassed 24 points since October 3rd at Kentucky. They seemed to get every call last week against the Tigers and the week before that they survived the upset a number of times against the Volunteers. This is an overrated team right now that simply should not be a favorite of this magnitude.
We really like backing quality first year coaches off a bye week. The extra week of preparation is extremely valuable. Last week Dan Mullen and his boys sat on the sideline while Alabama slugged it out with the physical LSU Tigers. Now we catch a rested squad that has cashed three straight games looking to pull off the shocker. Keep in mind they easily covered the spread just three weeks ago hosting top ranked Florida. The Bulldogs have cashed 13 of 18 in this series and have won outright twice in the last three meetings. That includes a 17-12 upset victory the last time Alabama invaded Starkville.
Alabama clinched the division title last week with the LSU victory. Coming off that physical game we simply can't see the Tide winning this one by a margin. The well rested up and coming dog takes the cash here as Alabama struggles for the outright win once again.
PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE
185/186 Alabama at Mississippi State
Is it possible the Tide peak too early? It's starting to look that way after three straight unimpressive victories. They beat South Carolina 20-6, Tennessee 12-10 and LSU 24-15 all at home in Tuscaloosa. While the defense has been terrific all season long the offense is showing plenty of weakness. Alabama hasn't surpassed 24 points since October 3rd at Kentucky. They seemed to get every call last week against the Tigers and the week before that they survived the upset a number of times against the Volunteers. This is an overrated team right now that simply should not be a favorite of this magnitude.
We really like backing quality first year coaches off a bye week. The extra week of preparation is extremely valuable. Last week Dan Mullen and his boys sat on the sideline while Alabama slugged it out with the physical LSU Tigers. Now we catch a rested squad that has cashed three straight games looking to pull off the shocker. Keep in mind they easily covered the spread just three weeks ago hosting top ranked Florida. The Bulldogs have cashed 13 of 18 in this series and have won outright twice in the last three meetings. That includes a 17-12 upset victory the last time Alabama invaded Starkville.
Alabama clinched the division title last week with the LSU victory. Coming off that physical game we simply can't see the Tide winning this one by a margin. The well rested up and coming dog takes the cash here as Alabama struggles for the outright win once again.
PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE
Delta Premiums:
Arkansas -14 = Last Home Game in Fayetteville, Petrino will light it up for the Alumni.
Cal -2 = Proven winners hard to beat @ home.
Miss St. +12 1/2 = Its the SEC the Bulldogs will be prepared and will not get blown out!
Memphis Pick Em = Coach West just got the boot, however they are home and his players are winning for him!
Missouri= Better offensive weapons in a game where points will not matter only picking the winner, which will be the tigers.
Iowa= Ok, the points ur getting in this game is ridiculous for you not to take. Iowa can play football and has not gotten this far without establishing themselves in the national spotlight.
Arkansas -14 = Last Home Game in Fayetteville, Petrino will light it up for the Alumni.
Cal -2 = Proven winners hard to beat @ home.
Miss St. +12 1/2 = Its the SEC the Bulldogs will be prepared and will not get blown out!
Memphis Pick Em = Coach West just got the boot, however they are home and his players are winning for him!
Missouri= Better offensive weapons in a game where points will not matter only picking the winner, which will be the tigers.
Iowa= Ok, the points ur getting in this game is ridiculous for you not to take. Iowa can play football and has not gotten this far without establishing themselves in the national spotlight.
sports insights
Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 11
Recapping Week 10
Marketwatch is coming off our best week of the season, hitting all three games for the first time this year. In game one, home-underdog Colorado came back from an 11-point halftime deficit to edge Texas A&M 35-34. Ohio State kept it rolling for Marketwatch, out-rushing Penn State 228-76 en route to a convincing 24-7 win over the favored Nittany Lions. Our final game of the week, and closest of the season, certainly wasn't short on offense, as Tulsa and Houston combined for 1229 total yards. Stud quarterback Case Keenum was up to his usual shenanigans, throwing for 522 yards and three touchdowns in the come-from-behind, one-point victory over Tulsa. Luckily for Marketwatch, we grabbed Tulsa at +2, beating the spread by one point for our first 3-0 week of the season.
Overall Record = 17-13 (56.7%)
Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you'll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You'll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 11 – Games to Watch
Michigan State vs. Purdue (12 p.m. EST)
Coming off two straight losses, Michigan State got back on track last week, beating up on Western Michigan 49-14. Quarterback Kirk Cousins carved up the Broncos' secondary, racking up 353 yards through the air on only 25 attempts. After starting the season 1-5, Purdue has won three of their last four games, including a 12-point victory over Ohio State and last week's 38-36 thriller against Michigan in Ann Arbor.
This game opened as a pick at CRIS and the public is backing Michigan State, who are currently receiving 63% of spread bets. This public "Spartan-love" has pushed Michigan State up to a 3-point favorite at most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights. This line movement has added value to Purdue and sharp money has not hesitated to jump behind the Boilermakers. SportsInsights has triggered three positive Smart Money Plays on Purdue, including one each at Cata/VegasVic (+13.74 units) and CRIS (+12.32 units), two of our top three sportsbooks for NCAA Smart Money plays this season. In this match-up, we'll go against the public and take the home underdog being back by Smart Money.
Purdue +3
Missouri vs. Kansas State (12:30 p.m. EST)
Missouri beat up on non-conference opponents early in the season, jumping out to a 4-0 record. However, the Tigers have struggled lately, losing four of their first five conference games heading into this week's showdown with the Big 12 North leader, Kansas State. The Wildcats, who have been a bit of a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team this season, played well last week, shutting down in-state rival Kansas and quarterback Todd Reesing in K-State's 17-10 win.
Kansas State opened as a 2.5-point home-favorite at Pinnacle and and are a huge public favorite, garnering 71% of spread bets, 78% of moneyline bets and 65% of parlay bets. With these betting percentages, Kansas State should have grown to a bigger favorite, yet the line has dropped 3.5 points at Pinnacle, making Missouri a 1-point favorite. This considerable reverse-line movement has triggering nine, yes nine, positive Smart Money Plays, including one each at Cata/VegasVic (+13.74 units) and Matchbook (+13.47 units), and two positive Steam Moves on Missouri. Most sportsbooks currently have Missouri as a 1-point favorite, but there are still a few out there who have this game as a pick. As we learned last week in the Tulsa game, one extra point can be huge, so do some line-shopping and grab the best number possible.
Missouri - pk
Arizona vs. California (3:30 p.m. EST)
In a sport where very few things are certain, there are two things that we know for sure each and every week. First, someone will make a joke about Charlie Weis, and second, Washington State will get hammered. Last week's destruction of Washington State happened to come at the hands of Arizona, who effortlessly ran through a porous defensive line in a laughable 48-7 beat-down of the Cougars. As good as Saturday was for Arizona, it was equally as bad for California, who not only fell to Oregon State by 17 points, but also lost Jahvid Best indefinitely after the star running back suffered a scary concussion and had to be carted off the field.
Arizona opened as a 2.5-point favorite at Olympic and are currently receiving 69% of spread bets, 82% of moneyline bets and 80% of parlay bets. Even though the Wildcats are a solid public favorite, the line has dropped a ridiculous 5.5 points at Olympic. This is the most drastic reverse-line movement Marketwatch has seen all season, and to no surprise, this game lit up SportsInsights' Betting Systems like a Christmas tree. Six positive Smart Money Plays, including one from Matchbook (+13.47 units), and a Steam Move from ThePig (+12.9 units) have been triggered on California. We like the reverse-line movement and plethora of positive moves on this game, so we'll give the three and take California at home.
California -3
So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights' analysis of this week's Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 11.
Games to Watch (17-13)
Purdue +3
Missouri - pk
California -3
Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 11
Recapping Week 10
Marketwatch is coming off our best week of the season, hitting all three games for the first time this year. In game one, home-underdog Colorado came back from an 11-point halftime deficit to edge Texas A&M 35-34. Ohio State kept it rolling for Marketwatch, out-rushing Penn State 228-76 en route to a convincing 24-7 win over the favored Nittany Lions. Our final game of the week, and closest of the season, certainly wasn't short on offense, as Tulsa and Houston combined for 1229 total yards. Stud quarterback Case Keenum was up to his usual shenanigans, throwing for 522 yards and three touchdowns in the come-from-behind, one-point victory over Tulsa. Luckily for Marketwatch, we grabbed Tulsa at +2, beating the spread by one point for our first 3-0 week of the season.
Overall Record = 17-13 (56.7%)
Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you'll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You'll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 11 – Games to Watch
Michigan State vs. Purdue (12 p.m. EST)
Coming off two straight losses, Michigan State got back on track last week, beating up on Western Michigan 49-14. Quarterback Kirk Cousins carved up the Broncos' secondary, racking up 353 yards through the air on only 25 attempts. After starting the season 1-5, Purdue has won three of their last four games, including a 12-point victory over Ohio State and last week's 38-36 thriller against Michigan in Ann Arbor.
This game opened as a pick at CRIS and the public is backing Michigan State, who are currently receiving 63% of spread bets. This public "Spartan-love" has pushed Michigan State up to a 3-point favorite at most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights. This line movement has added value to Purdue and sharp money has not hesitated to jump behind the Boilermakers. SportsInsights has triggered three positive Smart Money Plays on Purdue, including one each at Cata/VegasVic (+13.74 units) and CRIS (+12.32 units), two of our top three sportsbooks for NCAA Smart Money plays this season. In this match-up, we'll go against the public and take the home underdog being back by Smart Money.
Purdue +3
Missouri vs. Kansas State (12:30 p.m. EST)
Missouri beat up on non-conference opponents early in the season, jumping out to a 4-0 record. However, the Tigers have struggled lately, losing four of their first five conference games heading into this week's showdown with the Big 12 North leader, Kansas State. The Wildcats, who have been a bit of a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team this season, played well last week, shutting down in-state rival Kansas and quarterback Todd Reesing in K-State's 17-10 win.
Kansas State opened as a 2.5-point home-favorite at Pinnacle and and are a huge public favorite, garnering 71% of spread bets, 78% of moneyline bets and 65% of parlay bets. With these betting percentages, Kansas State should have grown to a bigger favorite, yet the line has dropped 3.5 points at Pinnacle, making Missouri a 1-point favorite. This considerable reverse-line movement has triggering nine, yes nine, positive Smart Money Plays, including one each at Cata/VegasVic (+13.74 units) and Matchbook (+13.47 units), and two positive Steam Moves on Missouri. Most sportsbooks currently have Missouri as a 1-point favorite, but there are still a few out there who have this game as a pick. As we learned last week in the Tulsa game, one extra point can be huge, so do some line-shopping and grab the best number possible.
Missouri - pk
Arizona vs. California (3:30 p.m. EST)
In a sport where very few things are certain, there are two things that we know for sure each and every week. First, someone will make a joke about Charlie Weis, and second, Washington State will get hammered. Last week's destruction of Washington State happened to come at the hands of Arizona, who effortlessly ran through a porous defensive line in a laughable 48-7 beat-down of the Cougars. As good as Saturday was for Arizona, it was equally as bad for California, who not only fell to Oregon State by 17 points, but also lost Jahvid Best indefinitely after the star running back suffered a scary concussion and had to be carted off the field.
Arizona opened as a 2.5-point favorite at Olympic and are currently receiving 69% of spread bets, 82% of moneyline bets and 80% of parlay bets. Even though the Wildcats are a solid public favorite, the line has dropped a ridiculous 5.5 points at Olympic. This is the most drastic reverse-line movement Marketwatch has seen all season, and to no surprise, this game lit up SportsInsights' Betting Systems like a Christmas tree. Six positive Smart Money Plays, including one from Matchbook (+13.47 units), and a Steam Move from ThePig (+12.9 units) have been triggered on California. We like the reverse-line movement and plethora of positive moves on this game, so we'll give the three and take California at home.
California -3
So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights' analysis of this week's Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 11.
Games to Watch (17-13)
Purdue +3
Missouri - pk
California -3
Here are the picks from week 10:
Steve Fezzik selected:
1. Cleveland Browns +11
2. Carolina Panthers +1 1/2
3. St Louis Rams +14
4. Washington Redskins +3 1/2
5. New England Patriots +3
6. Indianapolis/New England Under 50
Best Bet: Illinois -5
Tim Trushel selected:
1. Cleveland Browns +11
2. Carolina Panthers +1 1/2
3. Stanford +10 1/2
4. Mississippi St +12
5. Colorado +5
6. Detroit Lions +17
Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons/Carolina Panthers Over 43 1/2
Steve Fezzik selected:
1. Cleveland Browns +11
2. Carolina Panthers +1 1/2
3. St Louis Rams +14
4. Washington Redskins +3 1/2
5. New England Patriots +3
6. Indianapolis/New England Under 50
Best Bet: Illinois -5
Tim Trushel selected:
1. Cleveland Browns +11
2. Carolina Panthers +1 1/2
3. Stanford +10 1/2
4. Mississippi St +12
5. Colorado +5
6. Detroit Lions +17
Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons/Carolina Panthers Over 43 1/2
Saturday NCAAF System Club play GC-
On Saturday the System Club play in College football is on North Texas. Game 211 at 7:00 eastern. These club plays have been cashing at a high rate of late. What we want to do in this game is play against certain home favorites of less than 5 that are off road dog losses both straight up and against the spread if our tem is off a home loss. This system has cashed 32 of 42 times since 1980. Florida International is off a blowout road loss and qualifies as our go against team here tonight. In addition to the system we note that North Texas has Home loss revenge from last years game where they had a 428-347 yardage advantage. They lost that game due 4 costly turnovers that FIU. was able to convert into points. Look for North Texas to get their revenge tonight. In late phone action I have the SEC GOY backed with a solid 25-2 system,as well as a 5 unit 46-5 system play that is already 3-0 this year. The blowout plays are 7-3 this year and we have 39-2 Power angle that supports our team in a game that will be over at the half. NBA will be added to the second report. Last week we went 5-1 in College action and we cashed a nice 2-0 on Friday night with West Virginia and Utah. Jump on this big, deep card on Saturday as we do more damage with these cutting edge system plays. Take North Texas tonight as the System Club Play. BOL GC-
On Saturday the System Club play in College football is on North Texas. Game 211 at 7:00 eastern. These club plays have been cashing at a high rate of late. What we want to do in this game is play against certain home favorites of less than 5 that are off road dog losses both straight up and against the spread if our tem is off a home loss. This system has cashed 32 of 42 times since 1980. Florida International is off a blowout road loss and qualifies as our go against team here tonight. In addition to the system we note that North Texas has Home loss revenge from last years game where they had a 428-347 yardage advantage. They lost that game due 4 costly turnovers that FIU. was able to convert into points. Look for North Texas to get their revenge tonight. In late phone action I have the SEC GOY backed with a solid 25-2 system,as well as a 5 unit 46-5 system play that is already 3-0 this year. The blowout plays are 7-3 this year and we have 39-2 Power angle that supports our team in a game that will be over at the half. NBA will be added to the second report. Last week we went 5-1 in College action and we cashed a nice 2-0 on Friday night with West Virginia and Utah. Jump on this big, deep card on Saturday as we do more damage with these cutting edge system plays. Take North Texas tonight as the System Club Play. BOL GC-
Tuley the Tout
COLLEGE FOOTBALL (65-43-1 this season for a net profit of 17.7 units)
removed Iowa vs. Ohio St...liking this game less with Iowa backup QB and anti-swagger theory
Indiana +25.5 vs. Penn St.
Tennessee +5.5 vs. Mississippi...upgrading this to +5.5 and could very well be readily available at +6
Colorado +5 vs. Iowa St.
Stanford +11 vs. Southern Cal...grab +11 now as mostly 10.5 available, though could steam back
Texas A&M +20.5 vs. Oklahoma
Fresno St. +7.5 vs. Nevada...upgrading to +7.5, and there's even an 8 out there so wait
Tulane +2.5 vs. Rice
Utah +20 vs. TCU
Wyoming +7 vs. San Diego St.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL (65-43-1 this season for a net profit of 17.7 units)
removed Iowa vs. Ohio St...liking this game less with Iowa backup QB and anti-swagger theory
Indiana +25.5 vs. Penn St.
Tennessee +5.5 vs. Mississippi...upgrading this to +5.5 and could very well be readily available at +6
Colorado +5 vs. Iowa St.
Stanford +11 vs. Southern Cal...grab +11 now as mostly 10.5 available, though could steam back
Texas A&M +20.5 vs. Oklahoma
Fresno St. +7.5 vs. Nevada...upgrading to +7.5, and there's even an 8 out there so wait
Tulane +2.5 vs. Rice
Utah +20 vs. TCU
Wyoming +7 vs. San Diego St.
