IC Sat
6 Unit Play. NFL First Half Game of the Year. #405. Baltimore Ravens -3 over the Cincinatti Bengals (Sunday @ 1pm est). Certainly the Ravens have a great deal of revenge from their first loss to this team 14-17 at home. It was a drive put together by the Bengals in their last possession as they stunned Baltimore for their first loss of the year. The Ravens do have three losses on the year. But, in their defense, the three losses come from a combined total of 11 points. I like the Ravens here to get their revenge as they come off a big win over the Broncos at home. This team understands that they are 4-3 and do not have a grapple on the playoffs yet by any means after their hot preseason and regular season start which found them winning their first seven contests of the year - including the preseason. I like Coach H to get his players fired up for a nice revenge game here as this is a contest that Baltimore could win by double-digits as they likely do not let off the pedal. Remember, the Bengals did lose to the Texans at home and they come off a big win over the Bears as they are in for a likely let down Sunday after such a big win. These are the same Ravens that went on the road to defeat the Chargers, and the same Ravens that had the goods to nearly defeat a team in the Vikings if their kicker did not miss the field goal in question. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as as favorite and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
4 Unit Play. #407. Take the Houston Texans +9 over the Indianapolis Colts. I'm not the one to go against the Colts, but this is a division game. And, these Texans are for real. This team went on the road to defeat the Bengals and crushed Buffalo 31-10 on the highway as well. This team is very familiar with the Colts and lost by 6 points on the road last year. This year's team is even better. I like the nine points here as the Texans would love to give the Colts their first loss on the year. More importantly, the playoffs are in reach for the Texans this year. This team is 5-3 and certainly capable of having the offense to put up some points on the board. They learned a great deal from the Niners who nearly defeated the Colts and will likely have a similar game plan here. I like the Texans plus the points in this division rivalry game as they are tired of being the doormat to this team in this particular division. Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an Underdog and the Colts are 2-5 ATS as a home favorite by this margin.
4 Unit Play. #417. Take the Carolina Panthers +13.5 over the New Orleans Saints (Sunday @ 4:05pm est). A lot of points here in a division game. Carolina showed a lot of heart at Arizona winning 34-21 as a ten point underdog. Remember, this team also defeated Tampa Bay in a division game and only lost to the Falcons by eight points on the road. Certainly if the Falcons can hang tough in New Orleans with a 10 point spread more or less, why not Carolina on a 13.5 spread. Carolina has come around lately as they have three wins on the year. Frankly, I think they get up for this game similar to the Arizona game as Fox has this team moving in the right direction since the second half of the Washington game when they were losing outright at home. Remember, Arizona runs a similar offensive set such as New Orleans and there is no reason to think that these Carolina defensive backs can't hang tough here as Carolina puts up their fair share of points just like they did against Arizona. Saints are 4-11-1 when they face a team with a losing overall record at home.
5 Unit Play. ACC Game of the Year. #327. Take Duke +10 over University of North Carolina (Saturday @ 3:30pm est). At the end of the day, this is a rivalry game. Duke has turned considerably as far as its football prowess goes. Yes, I understand that UNC won at Virginia Tech. And, no doubt, that was a big win. But, Duke lost to this team 20-28 last year, and the year before, the game went into overtime with UNC winning by six at home. Duke lost by 1 point the year before 44-45 and lost by a field goal in 05'. In short, Duke has covered the last three of four of these meetings and the last time they failed to cover by just half a point. This team has lost the last four times to UNC by a combined total of 18 points. Why would we not want to take the ten points here and run with it? Duke is a five win team and they are likely going Bowling which hasn't happened in a long time. This team has beaten Maryland, Virginia on the road by double-digits, crushed NC State as a 15 point dog winning by 21. I like Duke here plus the points as certainly, this is a team that could pull the upset outright at home as they nearly did it in years' past and they are even better this year. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and the Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games at home.
4 Unit Play. #369. Take Oregon State +7.5 over California (Saturday @ 7pm est). Oregon State is the better team. I have a buddy that follows this team very closely as I do and we were both talking that Cal is great when they want to destroy weaker teams. But, when they face the better teams in the conference such as the USC's and Oregon, they lost by a combined total of 6-72. Oregon State is extremely well coached and I look for them to be very game here. Yes, Cal has revenge from last year, but Oregon State nearly defeated USC on the road this year losing by six points as a 21 point dog. This team won by double-digits at Arizona State as a five point dog. Certainly, I think they are capable of hanging with Cal here on the highway. The Beavers are 4-0 ATS as an Underdog by this margin and the Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
4 Unit Play. #347. Take Louisiana State Tigers +7.5 over the Alabama Crimson Tide (Saturday @ 3:30pm est). I am a Tide fan through and through. But, our offense is simply not as good as LSU's at least in my opinion. Despite the numbers, LSU has some quality athletes and they remember the tough loss they took to the Tide who was number one at that time in overtime. Certainly, LSU is capable of giving the Tide a run for their money in this SEC West Battle. These are two top ten ranked teams and if the Tennessee vs. Alabama game tells us anything, this could be an outright upset for the Tigers. Remember, Tennessee missed countless field goals in that game or else that result could have been different. LSU has a quality kicker, is well coached in Les Miles who will settle for nothing less than a win here and with these boys having revenge from last year, my Tide could be in for a brutal, hard hitting contest this weekend in Tuscaloosa. The Tigers are 9-3-1 ATS as an Underdog by this margin and the Tide are 1-4-1 ATS when facing a team with a road winning record.
4 Unit Play. #338. Take Florida -35 over Vanderbilt University (Saturday @ 7:15pm est). Florida has plenty of frustration coming into this game. With the story around Brandon Spikes and his eye-gouging antics, this team would love to deflect that attention to nothing more than a dominating win. This game will obviously be televised and Florida will love nothing more, once again, than to crush someone, anyone at this time. This team beat Vanderbilt 42-14 last year, winning by 28 points on the road. Certainly, they can do that much and a touchdown better at home given the surrounding controversy with Urban deciding to bench Spikes for just one half in the Vanderbilt game. Note that Larry Smith of Vandy has thrown for just four touchdowns and 7 interceptions and he will have his work cutout for him against this Florida defense in the swamp. The Gators are 5-1 ATS when they face a team with a losing road record at home. Its a shame that it might be Vandy taking the grunt here, but this game has the sounds of a 49-10 type of finish.
Good luck,
IC