Kevin O'neil's -The Max-
DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (3-1)
ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (3-1)
MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (3-4)
KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (7-5)
SELECTIONS: October 2-6, 2008
Saturday, October 4th, 2008
Iowa (+9) over @Michigan State
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
The natives are getting restless in Iowa City
and more than a few fans are calling for Kirk
Ferentz' scalp. The Hawkeyes snatched another
defeat from the jaws of victory, this time in
their Big 10 opener against Northwestern. Up
17-3 late in the 2nd quarter Iowa managed to
fumble their way to a come from ahead 22-17
homecoming loss. After ringing up 159 yards
on 21 carries, Stud RB Shonn Greene sat out
the final quarter thanks to a vicious hit. His
presence might have provided the Hawkeyes
the edge needed to hold off the Wildcats. As I
write this Greene is expected to play on
Saturday. One has wonder whether Greene or
MSU's Javon Ringer is the fresher back. Greene
has carried the ball 99 times so far while
Ringer has averaged 42 carries over the past 3
games. Iowa's meltdowns have concealed
superior stats. Against FBS opponents the
Hawkeyes have a 4.9 to 2.9 yards per carry
advantage, while MSU gains and gives up 4.3
yards per carry. Iowa has a small edge in the
passing department, and the teams have faced
the same level of opposition.
My database pops a trio of bounceback
systems on Iowa; the records are 44-12, 65-
34, and 127-71 ATS. The Hawkeyes are also
favored by a 36-12 ATS system involving
single-digit road dogs. Michigan State applies
to a negative 113-196 ATS statistical matchup
indicator that is 1-2 so far in 2008 including a
winner against Ohio State last weekend. And
the final technical nail in the Spartan coffin is a
13-35 ATS system that plays against favorites
with a perfect mark inside their conference.
Given the recent performances of these teams I
would have expected a somewhat larger number.
Based on each team's average lines this season a
fair price would be somewhere from -9 to -10 on the
home team, but it opened 8. Still the stats and the
technical outlook strongly favor an Iowa team that
needs this game more than Michigan State. Take the
points. Michigan State by only 1
South Carolina (+2½) over @Mississippi
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
Nice upset by Mississippi last week. They went into
a very tough place to play, and stole a win from
Florida. The result was not shocking at all as we
called for Mississippi to hang tough in this space,
although we didn’t call for the outright win. And
according to the box score, Ole Miss didn’t beat
Florida, but more like the Gators beat themselves,
which falls directly on Urban Meyer. We pointed out
Meyer’s historically bad preparation in that spot, and
that’s exactly what cost Florida the game. On the
field, Florida did have 14 more first downs (24-10),
and 118 more yards (443-325). But Ole Miss won
the turnover battle (3-1) and also made big plays
throughout the game with the biggest being the
blocked extra point, which gave the Rebels a 31-30
win. A win is a win, whether it is earned or not. But
the magnitude of that win is so big that it is
inevitable that the Rebels have to suffer a letdown
this coming Saturday.
While the Rebels were pulling off a shocker in Gainesville,
South Carolina was playing in a non-eventful game with
UAB. The Gamecocks “squeaked” by the Blazers 26-13
and I say that because Carolina was a 25½-point favorite.
And to score just 26 points total is really not too
impressive. But there are some things to like. Their
defense was once again outstanding holding UAB to just
207 yards on 3.9 yards per play. UAB only had two drives
all game that went longer than 22 yards, and in fact,
Carolina held them to 8 drives of three and out. Steve
Spurrier also made a much needed move at quarterback by
playing heralded, but troubled, Stephen Garcia. The kid is
highly thought of, but off the field incidents have
prevented him from seeing much action. He played
fantastic hitting 13 of 20 for 131 yards. But his biggest
attribute comes with his legs where his mobility will
definitely help South Carolina’s struggling offense. Garcia
ran for 86 yards, and his presence will give Spurrier a
mobile QB, something he hasn’t had since Syvelle Newton
in 2005. With Newton, that team went 3-1 as a road
underdog, which included two straight-up wins, one being
at Arkansas when Houston Nutt was there. Garcia could
be the spark that Carolina needs.
The line on this game looks out of whack. In week two,
South Carolina was a 9½-point road favorite at Vanderbilt.
Two weeks back, Mississippi was a 7-point home favorite
over the same Vanderbilt team. Now, we have Ole Miss
laying almost a field goal to South Carolina. It just doesn’t
make any sense because South Carolina was rated 2½
better than Vanderbilt than what Mississippi was. And
Carolina would have been a much bigger favorite if the
game was on their home field. So we can take points with
the higher rated team because of last week’s results, and
knowing that SEC road teams are 8-3 straight-up in
conference play, we’ll play the underdog here. South
Carolina by 4.
@Vanderbilt (+4½) over Auburn
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Some teams don’t have much returning on the
offensive line and it murders them (Clemson, South
Carolina, Hello!!) Others don’t return much on the
offensive line but surprise with the quality of their
work and quietly do well. Such is the case of
Vanderbilt. Behind a reconstituted offensive line,
the Commodores are averaging 4.6 yards per rush
attempt. It allows them to play ball control, use
their terrific defense, and play conservatively until
“winning time”. That careful approach should come
in handy against an Auburn team that is suffering
from some fumbles and turnovers as they
implement their new offense. Vandy is 4-0 and that
includes conference wins against South Carolina and
Ole’ Miss.
I’m convinced that Auburn made the right hire in
Tony Franklin, but such a drastic change in offensive
philosophy is bound to take a little time. And
obviously Auburn’s offense has been an immense
struggle thus far. 226 yards and 14 points Saturday
at home against Tennessee, 21 points and 320
yards at home against LSU (one of the TD’s was by
the defense), and the colossal 3 points and 315
yards in the Tigers’ 3-2 win at Mississippi State.
And in the non-conference home games against
Louisiana-Monroe and Southern Miss hardly
exhibited a lot of fireworks. While Auburn has an
excellent defense, they’re having real troubles
creating any offense. This simply isn’t the profile of
a team that is worthy of support laying points on the
conference road. Vandy’s defense is more athletic
than people realize, but they also have some
vulnerabilities. But the struggles of the Auburn
offense make that less important.
Vandy has a nice schedule. They play four games,
get a week off, play another four, get a week off,
and then they play their final four games. This is a
nice week-off with revenge scenario for a team that
is playing with a lot of confidence. Though it’s early,
the rest may come in handy. Auburn is playing their
sixth straight game and the last three have gone
down to the last play. Showing up here flat
remembering a 35-7 win in Auburn last year
wouldn’t be a surprise. Vandy is the least fierce
venue on the SEC road but that’s changing some, as
there is genuine excitement over this outfit in
Nashville. Tommy Tuberville’s patience is being
tested with the struggles of the new offense. He’s
got offensive coordinator Franklin on a short leash,
and that will likely be even more the case in this
road game. This has all the makings of a field goal
affair, and we’ll call for the outright upset. Vandy
by 3.
Stanford (+7) @Notre Dame
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
We mentioned in a report to you last week that we
would have liked to have bet against both Purdue
and Notre Dame last Saturday, but unfortunately
these two overrated teams were playing each other.
It was a nice comeback win for the Irish, as they
trailed early but came back to notch a 38-21 win.
ND had some breaks (Purdue led 14-7 with the
Irish’s only score at the time being a long INT return
of the game’s lone turnover), but played their best
game of the campaign. But you would hope so. A
dull win over San Diego State is not exactly flattered
by the Aztecs ineptitude against everyone else, 6
turnovers by Michigan fueled a win over the
Wolverines (leading fumblers in the country) in a
game that saw ND outgained by 128 yards. Then
the Irish were held to 16 yards rushing in a 23-7
loss at East Lansing. In the win over Purdue. Notre
Dame outgained their opponent for the first time
this season. No real accomplishment, as Purdue,
traveling for the first time this season, has yet to
outgain a Division 1-A team this season, getting
outyarded against both Oregon and Central Michigan
by over 90 yards each.
Though his achievements have been little noticed,
Jim Harbaugh has done a terrific job resurrecting
the Stanford program. After previous Buddy
Teevens’ poor recruiting helped doom Walt Harris to
a 1-11 record in 2006, with only one loss by less
than 9 points, Jim Harbaugh replaced him before
last season. A lot of folks were fading Washington
due to an extreme revenge factor for the Huskies,
and leading rusher Toby Gerhart went out with a
mild concussion in the first quarter. But none of it
bothered Stanford, as Anthony Kimble stepped up
and ran for 168 yards in a 35-28 win Stanford win
that was 35-21 before a late UW garbage time
score. Tavita Pritchard is coming into his own, and
he had 222 yards passing on only 24 attempts for
three TD’s. The Cardinal did benefit from Jake
Locher breaking his finger in the second quarter, but
they were containing the Washington QB
impressively at the time.
Averaging 3.3 yards per rush, Notre Dame is once
again one of the worst rushing teams in the country,
so they’re opening things up. Stanford is prepared
for some of Notre Dame’s new approaches. In Pac
Ten play they regularly see the 4-wide and 5-wide
formations the Irish used against Purdue. The
Cardinal outgained the Irish in a 21-14 home loss
last season, so they know there is no reason they
can’t play with the Golden Domers. While Notre
Dame has been hanging out at home, with only a
single road game at Michigan State, this is already
Stanford’s fourth road game, and they won’t be intimidated
after already visiting Arizona State, TCU, and Washington.
Look for underrated Stanford to be right in there in this
one against overrated Notre Dame. Stanford by 1.
@Nebraska (+11) over Missouri
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
Nebraska wanted to get back to Nebraska football
with the hire of Bo Pelini. Bill Callahan and his west
coast offense were not a big hit in Lincoln. And
after last year’s 5-7 campaign, athletic director and
former coach Tom Osborne fired Callahan and hired
Pelini away from LSU. Offensively, the Huskers
were fine last year (over 33 points per game), but it
was their defense that was terrible (allowed 37
points per game). Knowing the defense needed
fixing, Osborne got a defensive minded coach in
Pelini. And until last week, Pelini’s team allowed 24
points or less in their first three games.
Virginia Tech scored 35 points while handing
Nebraska their first loss of the year. But the
defense played a lot better than the 35 points
allowed indicate. They only allowed two
touchdowns that came on extended drives. The
Blackshirts forced 4 field goals, and the other nine
points came on a safety after a blocked punt and an
11-yard scoring drive after an interception. Now
Virginia Tech’s offense isn’t all that good, and not
even on the same planet as Missouri’s, but
Nebraska’s defense has done a 180 from last year.
The Huskers were forced to deal with the mobility of
Tyrod Taylor and a power running game, but they
face just the opposite here. Missouri is a passing
juggernaut, and Pelini’s previous work as a
defensive coordinator should come into play. He
and his brother Carl (defensive coordinator) should
be able to devise a solid defensive game plan in
order to try and slowdown Missouri’s attack. That’s
easier said than done, but the fact that Nebraska
runs the ball more now than they did in the last four
years under Callahan gives them a chance to stay in
this game. Their best defense may be their offense,
as they’ll try to shorten the game while running
more.
Missouri continues to roll. They’ve scored 42 points
or more in every game so far this year, and every
win has been by 10 points or more. They also enter
this game off a bye, but not so sure that’s a good
thing for them this early in the season. Missouri is
an offensive machine that is built on timing between
quarterback Chase Daniel and his receivers. So their
timing may be off just enough to allow Nebraska to
hang around early which would certainly give the
Huskers added confidence. This is also their first
true road game of the year. It’s not much of a
factor because the Tigers have experience, but head
coach Gary Pinkel has bad numbers as a road
favorite. Last year, they covered all three times as a
road favorite. But they were laying only 6, 3 ½, and
7 points. And over the 6 years before that, Pinkel
was just 3-9-1 as a road favorite with Missouri. That
history, along with this absurd double-digit line,
makes the home dog very attractive here. Missouri
by only 3.
@Miami-FL (-2.5)[/color] over Florida State
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Both programs have made major overhauls to their
respective coaching staffs over the last couple of
seasons, and this game will be a good measuring
stick to see which team is further along. If you read
my FSU/Wake Forest writeup two weeks back, you
know that I am a very critical of the culture and
leadership at Florida St. right now with Jimbo Fisher
waiting to replace Bobby Bowden. On the other
hand, although a young Miami team led by a young
staff is undergoing a bit of baptism under fire right
now, I like the overall direction the Canes are
headed under Randy Shannon. Shannon's players
would run through fire for him, and he has
experience as a coach and a player in this
passionate rivalry. Last season, a very bad, very
injury-riddled UM team lost 6 of its last 7 games, but the
only win was as a 5-point underdog at Tallahassee. Also,
in Shannon's 4 seasons as a player at UM, he never lost to
some very good Seminole teams. In fact, over the past 25
years (which includes 1 bowl game), if you take out a 4-0
SU/ATS run by Florida St. from 1995 to 1998 when the
'Canes were buried under probation-induced scholarship
limits, this has been UM's series as they have a 16-6 SU/
14-7-1 ATS mark against FSU.
FSU's offense in recent years has really struggled due to
the lack of a running game as, despite some talented
backs, they have only averaged over 3.7 yards per rush or
more than 135 yards per game on the ground once (2004)
in the last 5 seasons. Last week they busted out against
Colorado with 250 yards on 5.7 ypr and they will need to
duplicate that ground success to win games this year.
However, I'm very skeptical they can do that against a
Miami defense whose front 7, especially a very good set of
LBs, is their strength. Miami's new defensive coordinator
Bill Young coached some great run defenses at Kansas (no
more than 109 ypg or 3.5 ypr in the last 3 seasons in a
very good running conference), and the Canes are only
allowing 2.1 ypr on the season defensively. Having seen
FSU play a couple times, the 16-40, 4.2 yards per pass, 0/4
ratio posted by Sophomore QB Christian Ponder in 2 games
against 1A opponents this season is every bit as bad as it
looks. Ponder is not a very good QB right now. He will not
be able to exploit UM's weakness, which is a 7.7 ypp
secondary that cost them the game last week against
North Carolina. Miami's corners are very mediocre, and
there have been some blown coverages in Young's new
aggressive scheme. However, Ponder is not the QB to take
advantage of this.
That's not to say that young Cane QBs, Robert Marve and
Jacory Harris, will not struggle against FSU DC Mickey
Andrews' pressure D. However, both of these two,
especially Marve who plays most of the game, rate a huge
edge over Ponder. Miami has greatly improved on offense
since struggling early on against a tough Florida defense,
and the matchups in this game favor them, as I don't
believe FSU will be able to maintain the success it found on
the ground vs. CU last week. Despite last week's results, I
still believe UM is a little further along at this point. Those
results give us value here, and home field and superior QB
play will lead UM to a win which, at this price, should bring
home the money as well. Miami by 7
@Wisconsin (+2½) over Ohio State
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Absolutely dominating the proceedings in the first
half, only to inexplicably let it slip away, Wisconsin’s
loss to Michigan was simply one of those wacky
things you have to just write off. It isn’t often that
you blow a 19-0 halftime lead, and if Indiana or
Northwestern or somebody like that was coming to
town it’d be tough to get up for the game. But
that’s not the case. You’re looking at the mighty
Buckeyes rolling into Madison, and that will keep
Wisconsin’s mind on business this week.
4-1 Ohio State continues to massively underperform
to the pointspread, losing by a combined 52½
points in failing to cover all four lined games. And
that’s been reflected in this line. Ohio State laying
less than a TD definitely would have looked good in
the summertime, with 17 starters returning to an
Ohio State team that played for the national
championship. But the Buckeyes are not
developing. Are some of those returning starters
more concerned with their potential draft status and
other individual concerns? Could be.
Beanie Wells will be the healthiest he’s been since
his injury, and he went for 106 yards on only 14
carries (7.6 yards per attempt) in a win over the
Minnesota Golden Gophers on Saturday. Obviously,
his return makes things different, but Wisconsin’s D
is tons better than Minnesota’s. Camp Randall
Stadium is a terrific environment, and a legitimate
home field edge will be in play. Obviously Terrell
Pryor is a unique talent to have displaced the
veteran Todd Boeckman. But this is his first road
start in a wickedly intense environment. His center
is also a true freshman, and won’t the line calls be
difficult in this environment, particularly when
dealing with an inexperienced classmate as your
signal caller?
Mental errors killed Wisconsin in Ann Arbor. The
game would have gone to overtime if it weren’t for a
penalty due to a mistake in offensive alignment on a
successful two-point conversion. Michigan players
knocked Wisconsin’s physical conditioning, saying
that they were fresher late. That will add to the
focus here, and the desire to prepare. This is the
first visit to Wisconsin by Ohio State since 2003. A
game that Wisconsin won outright at a (lookie here)
2½-point underdog. The Badgers have been home
dogs six times since 2001. In each instance there
was concern that their opponent was too athletic
and would outclass them. Wisconsin covered all six
times. We’ll look for the same here with a big,
tough, physical team that will put everything they
have into this one off of the Michigan loss.
Wisconsin by 4.
