Norm Hitzges
NCAA Football Record: 53-44
NCAA
Double Play
Nevada -24.5 vs Idaho
Oklahoma State -25 vs Texas A&M
Nebraska +10.5 vs Missouri
South Carolina +2.5 vs Mississippi
Single Plays
Minnesota -7 vs Indiana
Stanford +7 vs Notre Dame
Michigan -3 vs Illinois
Kentucky +16 vs Alabama
Purdue +13 vs Penn State
Toledo +7.5 vs Ball St
UCLA -17.5 vs Washington St
Fresno -22 vs Hawaii
Tulane -20 vs Army
Colorado +13 vs Texas
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NCAA Football Record: 53-44
NCAA
Double Play
Nevada -24.5 vs Idaho
Oklahoma State -25 vs Texas A&M
Nebraska +10.5 vs Missouri
South Carolina +2.5 vs Mississippi
Single Plays
Minnesota -7 vs Indiana
Stanford +7 vs Notre Dame
Michigan -3 vs Illinois
Kentucky +16 vs Alabama
Purdue +13 vs Penn State
Toledo +7.5 vs Ball St
UCLA -17.5 vs Washington St
Fresno -22 vs Hawaii
Tulane -20 vs Army
Colorado +13 vs Texas
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Bettorsworld
2* Connecticut +7 over North Carolina - In evaluating talent on a college football team, it can be helpful in certain situations to take a look back at the previous season. The situations where that is helpful is where teams have lots of starters back from the previous year. Such is the case here for both of these squads as Uconn has 9 on offense and 8 on defense while North Carolina has 10 on offense and 8 on defense. So these teams both have the same core of talent as they did a year ago. Same coaching staffs, same schemes, same team. One significant missing link for both teams is QB as both have seen their starters go down with injuries. For Uconn it's QB Tyler Lorenzen who is out 6-8 weeks with a broken foot. Notre Dame transfer Zack Frazer takes his place. More on that later. For the Tar Heels, starter TJ Yates is out and Cam Sexton and Mike Paulus are in.
So with the core talent the same as a year ago, what can we learn from taking a look back? How about this. They had 3 common opponents, Duke, Virginia and South Florida. The results? Uconn Beat Duke 45-14 while NC beat Duke 20-14. Uconn beat South Florida 22-15 while NC lost 37-10. Uconn beat Virginia 16-17 while NC lost to Virginia 22-20. Sure, there was some bad weather involved here with the Uconn South Florida game last year but by and large what we can take away from last years results is that Uconn was a little better than North Carolina. At the very least, we come away with these two teams being on the same level talent wise.
Schedule strength will be one valid argument used for North Carolina especially when you consider that North Carolina played Virginia Tech and Miami in back to back weeks winning one and having the chance to win both. Playing a higher quality opponent give a team more chance for improvement from week to week. Playing good teams makes you better. It's not Uconns fault, as a tea, but thus far they have played Hofstra, Temple, Virginia, Baylor and Louisville. North Carolina will be their toughest opponent to date without question.
Uconn may actually benefit from the QB change. Zack Frazer was good enough for the folks at Notre Dame to be interested. He's got a great arm and is much more of a long ball threat than Lorenzen was. When you have the number one rusher in the country in your backfield, and now a deep threat, the two go hand in hand to help each other. Concentrate too much on stopping Donald Brown and that leaves the deep threat open. Keeping the North Carolina secondary honest opens it up for Donald Brown to continue to eat up yards on the ground.
The Uconn defense been a bend but not break defense. They gave up over 500 yards to Louisville but kept them out of the end zone. They had a yards per point number last season of 18 and this year it's currently at 22. Very good. Again, who they did it against will be the common argument against Uconn, but we have shown that going back and taking a look at the core talent from a year ago for both squads, that these teams figure to be evenly matched. Uconn has played a weak schedule perhaps, but they have done what's expected when you play a weak schedule....they won and are 5-0.
This isn't a play against North Carolina or for that matter, a play on Uconn because we feel they are superior. What we have here are two well coached teams that aren't beating themselves. Both teams can pound the ball. Uconn may have the better defense but the offensive edge goes to North Carolina with more weapons. Shake it all up and we have two evenly matched teams taking the field. The +7 is what attracts us here. This Uconn team is built to play the type of game that gets decided late, which is an ideal spot for a 7 point underdog.
One area of concern here, and it's a legitimate one, is Uconns performance on the road. They have only had a winning record on the road once this decade. Even last years team managed just a 2-3 road record. But the talent is there for a close game, even a win, so we'll grab the +7 here and make a 2* play on Uconn. 2* Uconn +7
2* Vanderbilt +4 over Auburn - We had a feeling we'd be playing this one a couple of weeks ago. First we are going to tell you why this play scares us. Then we are going to tell you why we're going to play it anyways.
A pointspread is an indicator of a teams value in the marketplace. If a team outperforms the indicator, it tells us they are undervalued. If a team doesn't perform well against the pointspread, it tells us they are overvalued. This game presents a classic look at overvalued and undervalued. This generally happens because a team is given credit, or not given credit, based on what they have done historically. Here we have Auburn, a team that is top 5 in wins over the last decade in college football, against Vanderbilt, a team that hasn't had a winning season in 25 years. Auburn is down a notch mostly as a result of implementing a new offense while Vandy is playing at a higher level thus far than they have in years. So it should be no surprise that Vandy is 4-0 against the spread this year while Auburn is 1-3 against the number.
The problem is that when this occurs, adjustments are made each week to correct the problem. Little by little, that early season value begins to disappear. Without these adjustments, bettors could simply load up on or against these teams each week and laugh all the way to the bank. As it stands with Vandy, we are approaching the point of diminishing returns. Interestingly enough, the oddsmakers still didn't get it right this week according to the early bettors who are usually a sharp crowd. Auburn opened a 6 point favorite but was quickly bet down to 4.
In order for their to be any value betting on Vanderbilt this season, past this game, there needs to be a correction in the market place. Is this the week of the correction? We hope not, as we are going to ride the Vandy train for one more week.
You've seen us refer to special seasons and the likes of Cinci, Rutgers and Wake Forest in recent years. One thing that all of these teams had in common was that they were all among the best teams in the nation in turnover margin at the time of their special runs. You commonly here people state that these teams "get all the breaks" or the "ball has bounced their way" but that's all nonsense. Teams that find themselves at the top of the turnover category are creating those bounces and breaks. So with Vanderbilt, it should come as no surprise that they are #1 in the country in Turnover Margin at +9. Auburn meanwhile, weighs in at -3 which is to be expected from a team implementing a new spread offense.
It won't be easy to beat Auburn with a one dimensional attack. Auburn has a fantastic defense. Vanderbilt is all about the run. They are pretty much no threat whatsoever to throw the ball downfield. Auburn held two opponents this year to 39 yards rushing. They held another to 84 yards on the ground with only LSU and Tennessee gaining any significant yardage overland but both of those teams were a threat thru the air which opened up the ground game. No such threat with Vandy and that could be a problem.
What we need here is a game that plays out similar to the Auburn Miss State game. A defensive battle where one or two big plays makes the difference. We like our chances of Vandy being the team that gets the big play to make a difference.
As with the Wake Forest and Rutgers teams, we get to say that this will probably be the biggest game Vanderbilt has ever played to date in the history of their program. They get the chance to prove they are deserving of the top 25 ranking. ESPN will be broadcasting from there all day starting with their Game Day show. For Vanderbilt, that's huge. The added emotional boost here can only be a positive. We'll ride Vandy one more week. 2* Vanderbilt +4
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2* Connecticut +7 over North Carolina - In evaluating talent on a college football team, it can be helpful in certain situations to take a look back at the previous season. The situations where that is helpful is where teams have lots of starters back from the previous year. Such is the case here for both of these squads as Uconn has 9 on offense and 8 on defense while North Carolina has 10 on offense and 8 on defense. So these teams both have the same core of talent as they did a year ago. Same coaching staffs, same schemes, same team. One significant missing link for both teams is QB as both have seen their starters go down with injuries. For Uconn it's QB Tyler Lorenzen who is out 6-8 weeks with a broken foot. Notre Dame transfer Zack Frazer takes his place. More on that later. For the Tar Heels, starter TJ Yates is out and Cam Sexton and Mike Paulus are in.
So with the core talent the same as a year ago, what can we learn from taking a look back? How about this. They had 3 common opponents, Duke, Virginia and South Florida. The results? Uconn Beat Duke 45-14 while NC beat Duke 20-14. Uconn beat South Florida 22-15 while NC lost 37-10. Uconn beat Virginia 16-17 while NC lost to Virginia 22-20. Sure, there was some bad weather involved here with the Uconn South Florida game last year but by and large what we can take away from last years results is that Uconn was a little better than North Carolina. At the very least, we come away with these two teams being on the same level talent wise.
Schedule strength will be one valid argument used for North Carolina especially when you consider that North Carolina played Virginia Tech and Miami in back to back weeks winning one and having the chance to win both. Playing a higher quality opponent give a team more chance for improvement from week to week. Playing good teams makes you better. It's not Uconns fault, as a tea, but thus far they have played Hofstra, Temple, Virginia, Baylor and Louisville. North Carolina will be their toughest opponent to date without question.
Uconn may actually benefit from the QB change. Zack Frazer was good enough for the folks at Notre Dame to be interested. He's got a great arm and is much more of a long ball threat than Lorenzen was. When you have the number one rusher in the country in your backfield, and now a deep threat, the two go hand in hand to help each other. Concentrate too much on stopping Donald Brown and that leaves the deep threat open. Keeping the North Carolina secondary honest opens it up for Donald Brown to continue to eat up yards on the ground.
The Uconn defense been a bend but not break defense. They gave up over 500 yards to Louisville but kept them out of the end zone. They had a yards per point number last season of 18 and this year it's currently at 22. Very good. Again, who they did it against will be the common argument against Uconn, but we have shown that going back and taking a look at the core talent from a year ago for both squads, that these teams figure to be evenly matched. Uconn has played a weak schedule perhaps, but they have done what's expected when you play a weak schedule....they won and are 5-0.
This isn't a play against North Carolina or for that matter, a play on Uconn because we feel they are superior. What we have here are two well coached teams that aren't beating themselves. Both teams can pound the ball. Uconn may have the better defense but the offensive edge goes to North Carolina with more weapons. Shake it all up and we have two evenly matched teams taking the field. The +7 is what attracts us here. This Uconn team is built to play the type of game that gets decided late, which is an ideal spot for a 7 point underdog.
One area of concern here, and it's a legitimate one, is Uconns performance on the road. They have only had a winning record on the road once this decade. Even last years team managed just a 2-3 road record. But the talent is there for a close game, even a win, so we'll grab the +7 here and make a 2* play on Uconn. 2* Uconn +7
2* Vanderbilt +4 over Auburn - We had a feeling we'd be playing this one a couple of weeks ago. First we are going to tell you why this play scares us. Then we are going to tell you why we're going to play it anyways.
A pointspread is an indicator of a teams value in the marketplace. If a team outperforms the indicator, it tells us they are undervalued. If a team doesn't perform well against the pointspread, it tells us they are overvalued. This game presents a classic look at overvalued and undervalued. This generally happens because a team is given credit, or not given credit, based on what they have done historically. Here we have Auburn, a team that is top 5 in wins over the last decade in college football, against Vanderbilt, a team that hasn't had a winning season in 25 years. Auburn is down a notch mostly as a result of implementing a new offense while Vandy is playing at a higher level thus far than they have in years. So it should be no surprise that Vandy is 4-0 against the spread this year while Auburn is 1-3 against the number.
The problem is that when this occurs, adjustments are made each week to correct the problem. Little by little, that early season value begins to disappear. Without these adjustments, bettors could simply load up on or against these teams each week and laugh all the way to the bank. As it stands with Vandy, we are approaching the point of diminishing returns. Interestingly enough, the oddsmakers still didn't get it right this week according to the early bettors who are usually a sharp crowd. Auburn opened a 6 point favorite but was quickly bet down to 4.
In order for their to be any value betting on Vanderbilt this season, past this game, there needs to be a correction in the market place. Is this the week of the correction? We hope not, as we are going to ride the Vandy train for one more week.
You've seen us refer to special seasons and the likes of Cinci, Rutgers and Wake Forest in recent years. One thing that all of these teams had in common was that they were all among the best teams in the nation in turnover margin at the time of their special runs. You commonly here people state that these teams "get all the breaks" or the "ball has bounced their way" but that's all nonsense. Teams that find themselves at the top of the turnover category are creating those bounces and breaks. So with Vanderbilt, it should come as no surprise that they are #1 in the country in Turnover Margin at +9. Auburn meanwhile, weighs in at -3 which is to be expected from a team implementing a new spread offense.
It won't be easy to beat Auburn with a one dimensional attack. Auburn has a fantastic defense. Vanderbilt is all about the run. They are pretty much no threat whatsoever to throw the ball downfield. Auburn held two opponents this year to 39 yards rushing. They held another to 84 yards on the ground with only LSU and Tennessee gaining any significant yardage overland but both of those teams were a threat thru the air which opened up the ground game. No such threat with Vandy and that could be a problem.
What we need here is a game that plays out similar to the Auburn Miss State game. A defensive battle where one or two big plays makes the difference. We like our chances of Vandy being the team that gets the big play to make a difference.
As with the Wake Forest and Rutgers teams, we get to say that this will probably be the biggest game Vanderbilt has ever played to date in the history of their program. They get the chance to prove they are deserving of the top 25 ranking. ESPN will be broadcasting from there all day starting with their Game Day show. For Vanderbilt, that's huge. The added emotional boost here can only be a positive. We'll ride Vandy one more week. 2* Vanderbilt +4
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Larry Ness' 20* Revenge Game of the Year-CFB
My 20* play is on Air Force at 4:00 ET. That's the case here and I look for the Falcons to roll. Revenge GOY 20* Air Force.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' CFB Blowout Game of the Month
My CFB Blowout of the Month is on Both Ohio U and Western Michigan were bowl teams in 2006 but the Bobcats fell to 6-6 last year, with the Broncos falling even further (5-7). Broncos roll in this one. Blowout Game of the Month 15* Western Michigan.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CFB (6-2 with FB Insiders to open '08!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on Miami-Ohio at 3:30 ET. Las Vegas Insider on Miami-Ohio.
Good Luck...Larry
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My 20* play is on Air Force at 4:00 ET. That's the case here and I look for the Falcons to roll. Revenge GOY 20* Air Force.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' CFB Blowout Game of the Month
My CFB Blowout of the Month is on Both Ohio U and Western Michigan were bowl teams in 2006 but the Bobcats fell to 6-6 last year, with the Broncos falling even further (5-7). Broncos roll in this one. Blowout Game of the Month 15* Western Michigan.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CFB (6-2 with FB Insiders to open '08!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on Miami-Ohio at 3:30 ET. Las Vegas Insider on Miami-Ohio.
Good Luck...Larry
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sportsinsights (8-7)
NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 6 – Games to Watch
Texas Tech vs Kansas State (10/4 3:30P)
Coming into the season, everyone knew about Texas Tech's high-powered offense led by Senior QB Graham Harrell and Sophomore WR Michael Crabtree. The Red Raiders haven't disappointed by putting up over 45 points and 570 yards a game while climbing to No. 7 in the rankings with a 4-0 record. Texas Tech improved their running game behind a pair of talented backs, Baron Batch and Shannon Woods, that each average over 6 yards per carry and are receiving threats out of the backfield. The Red Raiders are backing up all that offense with an improved defense that is giving up an average of 16 points per game.
Kansas State also knows how to put up a lot of points, as they average 47 points a contest. The Wildcats are led by Junoir QB Josh Freeman, who broke KSU's career record for passing yards last week and needs only two passing TDs to tie the school mark. KSU finally found a running game during their last contest as converted WR Lamark Brown rushed for 137 yards and a TD to give the offense a balance.
We're expecting there to be plenty of points with these two offenses facing off. Texas Tech opened as -6 favorites at Pinnacle before the line quickly moved to -7 with the Red Raiders receiving the majority of the public's wagers. The line fluctuated and triggered multiple Smart Money Plays on KSU before dropping down to Texas Tech -7.5. We like to follow the Smart Money and home teams getting more than a TD. We're backing the Wildcats in Manhattan.
Kansas State +7.5
Ohio State vs Wisconsin (10/4 8P)
Ohio State heads into Wisconsin coming off a pair of home wins to wash the bitter taste of the USC game out of their mouth. The Buckeyes haven't looked dominating since their opening win against Youngstown State, as they've been dealing with a nagging injury to starting tailback Beanie Wells and inconsistent play at quarterback. Wells finally returned and looked healthy last week against Minnesota as he rushed for 106 yards on 14 carries. Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor finally brought some playmaking ability to the QB spot while splitting time with Todd Boeckman. Pryor was steady throwing the ball while rushing for 97 yards and two scores on eight carries. The Buckeyes' defense also looked better last week as they allowed only two field goals before Minnesota scored two late TDs when the game was out of reach.
Wisconsin will look to bounce back from last week's devastating second half against Michigan. The Badgers led 19-0 at halftime but allowed the Wolverines to score 27 points in the final 18 minutes to pull the upset. A big part of that loss was the four turnovers committed by Senior QB Allan Evridge. The Badgers defense allows only 17 points per game and has forced 11 turnovers. Wisconsin historically plays well at home, and they have won 27 of their previous 28 games at Camp Randall Stadium.
This will be the Buckeyes first test since USC, and playing at Wisconsin is a tall task with a freshman QB. Wisconsin may have blown it last week, but they have already defeated a top-25 team this season, and they know their season could be on the line with No. 6 Penn State visiting next week. Ohio State opened as -2.5 favorites at Pinnacle, but the line has dropped to Ohio State -1 despite the Buckeyes receiving 72% of public wagers. This has triggered multiple Smart Money plays on Wisconsin, so we'll take the Badgers at home with a point or so.
Wisconsin +1.5
Missouri vs Nebraska (10/4 9PM)
Missouri has looked excellent so far this season behind Heisman hopeful QB Chase Daniel. The Tigers offense is ranked second nationally in scoring and total yards as they've racked up four non-conference wins to open the season. The only close contest was in their opening game against then-No. 20 Illinois, which they won 52-42. Daniel has completed over 75% of his passes while throwing for 12 touchdowns against one interception. The offense is balanced with RB Derrick Washington, who averages 6.8 yards a carry and has scored 8 TDs on the ground.
Nebraska is coming off a tough 35-30 home loss to Virginia Tech, and has to face one of the nation's most powerful offenses. First-year Cornhuskers coach Bo Pelini has his team off to a good start, but knows the Huskers have a tough task this week. Nebraska has put up 37.5 points per game, and they will look to take advantage of a porous Missouri pass defense with Senior QB Joe Ganz.
This will be Missouri's first road contest as they open their Big 12 schedule. They opened as -10 favorites at Pinnacle and the line has moved up and down between 10 and 11 across the marketplace throughout the week. With the Tigers receiving 77% of the public's backing, Nebraska is receiving a plethora of Smart Money plays, mostly from books with positive records, due to the betting percentage and line fluctuation. We'll follow the Smart Money and take the Huskers with the points.
Nebraska +10.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.
Games to Watch (8-7)
Kansas State +7.5
Wisconsin +1.5
Nebraska +10.5
NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 6 – Games to Watch
Texas Tech vs Kansas State (10/4 3:30P)
Coming into the season, everyone knew about Texas Tech's high-powered offense led by Senior QB Graham Harrell and Sophomore WR Michael Crabtree. The Red Raiders haven't disappointed by putting up over 45 points and 570 yards a game while climbing to No. 7 in the rankings with a 4-0 record. Texas Tech improved their running game behind a pair of talented backs, Baron Batch and Shannon Woods, that each average over 6 yards per carry and are receiving threats out of the backfield. The Red Raiders are backing up all that offense with an improved defense that is giving up an average of 16 points per game.
Kansas State also knows how to put up a lot of points, as they average 47 points a contest. The Wildcats are led by Junoir QB Josh Freeman, who broke KSU's career record for passing yards last week and needs only two passing TDs to tie the school mark. KSU finally found a running game during their last contest as converted WR Lamark Brown rushed for 137 yards and a TD to give the offense a balance.
We're expecting there to be plenty of points with these two offenses facing off. Texas Tech opened as -6 favorites at Pinnacle before the line quickly moved to -7 with the Red Raiders receiving the majority of the public's wagers. The line fluctuated and triggered multiple Smart Money Plays on KSU before dropping down to Texas Tech -7.5. We like to follow the Smart Money and home teams getting more than a TD. We're backing the Wildcats in Manhattan.
Kansas State +7.5
Ohio State vs Wisconsin (10/4 8P)
Ohio State heads into Wisconsin coming off a pair of home wins to wash the bitter taste of the USC game out of their mouth. The Buckeyes haven't looked dominating since their opening win against Youngstown State, as they've been dealing with a nagging injury to starting tailback Beanie Wells and inconsistent play at quarterback. Wells finally returned and looked healthy last week against Minnesota as he rushed for 106 yards on 14 carries. Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor finally brought some playmaking ability to the QB spot while splitting time with Todd Boeckman. Pryor was steady throwing the ball while rushing for 97 yards and two scores on eight carries. The Buckeyes' defense also looked better last week as they allowed only two field goals before Minnesota scored two late TDs when the game was out of reach.
Wisconsin will look to bounce back from last week's devastating second half against Michigan. The Badgers led 19-0 at halftime but allowed the Wolverines to score 27 points in the final 18 minutes to pull the upset. A big part of that loss was the four turnovers committed by Senior QB Allan Evridge. The Badgers defense allows only 17 points per game and has forced 11 turnovers. Wisconsin historically plays well at home, and they have won 27 of their previous 28 games at Camp Randall Stadium.
This will be the Buckeyes first test since USC, and playing at Wisconsin is a tall task with a freshman QB. Wisconsin may have blown it last week, but they have already defeated a top-25 team this season, and they know their season could be on the line with No. 6 Penn State visiting next week. Ohio State opened as -2.5 favorites at Pinnacle, but the line has dropped to Ohio State -1 despite the Buckeyes receiving 72% of public wagers. This has triggered multiple Smart Money plays on Wisconsin, so we'll take the Badgers at home with a point or so.
Wisconsin +1.5
Missouri vs Nebraska (10/4 9PM)
Missouri has looked excellent so far this season behind Heisman hopeful QB Chase Daniel. The Tigers offense is ranked second nationally in scoring and total yards as they've racked up four non-conference wins to open the season. The only close contest was in their opening game against then-No. 20 Illinois, which they won 52-42. Daniel has completed over 75% of his passes while throwing for 12 touchdowns against one interception. The offense is balanced with RB Derrick Washington, who averages 6.8 yards a carry and has scored 8 TDs on the ground.
Nebraska is coming off a tough 35-30 home loss to Virginia Tech, and has to face one of the nation's most powerful offenses. First-year Cornhuskers coach Bo Pelini has his team off to a good start, but knows the Huskers have a tough task this week. Nebraska has put up 37.5 points per game, and they will look to take advantage of a porous Missouri pass defense with Senior QB Joe Ganz.
This will be Missouri's first road contest as they open their Big 12 schedule. They opened as -10 favorites at Pinnacle and the line has moved up and down between 10 and 11 across the marketplace throughout the week. With the Tigers receiving 77% of the public's backing, Nebraska is receiving a plethora of Smart Money plays, mostly from books with positive records, due to the betting percentage and line fluctuation. We'll follow the Smart Money and take the Huskers with the points.
Nebraska +10.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.
Games to Watch (8-7)
Kansas State +7.5
Wisconsin +1.5
Nebraska +10.5
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA:
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (12-9)...
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
UTAH - ALREADY A LOSER
Revenge isn’t the only factor that favors hot Utah when it plays host
to Oregon State at Salt Lake City Thursday night, although it helps to
strength the case for the Utes after their 24-7 loss at Corvallis last
season. Keep in mind that Utah has usually taken care of business at
Rice-Eccles Stadium lately, covering 8 of its last 12 at home. If the
Utes end up laying double digits, note their 7-2 mark in that role since
2006. Meanwhile, the Beavers have long struggled as a visitor in nonconference
play, dropping 5 of their last 6 spread verdicts.
NAVY
Anchors Aweigh, indeed, for the Naval Academy as it prepares to
again defend its Commander-in-Chief Trophy when traveling to
Colorado Springs for a Saturday battle vs. rival Air Force. The series
has been all Midshipmen lately, with the Annapolis bunch winning
and covering 5 straight at the Falcs’ expense. Navy has also been
an accomplished spread performer on the road for years, standing
11-4 vs. the line as a rod dog since ‘03. The Mids are also featured
recommendation in the Rivalry Dog and Power Underdog systems
this week.
NEVADA
It’s hard to grasp just how bad things are going for Idaho.
Certainly, the Vandals are one of the most-pronounced pointspread
cold streaks in recent memory, dropping 12 of their last 13 vs. the
number. Moreover, they’ve dropped their last 8 spread decisions at
home in the Kibbie Dome, where they’ll host surging Nevada
Saturday afternoon. The Wolf Pack, fresh off an exhilarating win
over rival UNLV, is a featured Streakbuster “Win” recommendation
this week. Further arguments supporting the case for Nevada
include the Pack’s solid chalk mark (18-8) since HC Chris Ault
returned to the sidelines in 2004, and Idaho’s poor -18.50 “AFS”
(“Away from Spread”) number its last two games on the board.
UCLA
Not often do we find a team continuing to appear on a weekly
basis on the plus or minus sides of the “AFS” (“Away from
Spread”) list, featured weekly in our Systems Spotlight feature.
And we certainly don’t recall a team continuing to stay at or near the
top of the “minus” list as has Washington State, which travels to
Pasadena for a Saturday date vs. UCLA. The Cougs’ latest “AFS”
number is a woeful -26.75 (two-game average), following recent
weeks in the minus 30 range, the most-extended and pronounced
AFS “minus” drought we can recall. Note the Bruins’18-5 spread
mark their last 23 at the Rose Bowl, and their inclusion as a featured
Streakbuster-Win recommendation this week.
OKLAHOMA STATE
It’s go-with vs. go-against when Oklahoma State plays host to
Texas A&M Saturday at Stillwater. “Go-with” means the Cowboys,
off to a 3-0 start vs. the number, and now 7-0 as double-digit chalk
since 2005. And in this matchup, “go-against” means the Aggies,
losers of 4 of 5 vs. the line since late last season and owners of a sorry
-19.00 “AFS” (“Away from Spread”) number their last 2 games
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (12-9)...
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
UTAH - ALREADY A LOSER
Revenge isn’t the only factor that favors hot Utah when it plays host
to Oregon State at Salt Lake City Thursday night, although it helps to
strength the case for the Utes after their 24-7 loss at Corvallis last
season. Keep in mind that Utah has usually taken care of business at
Rice-Eccles Stadium lately, covering 8 of its last 12 at home. If the
Utes end up laying double digits, note their 7-2 mark in that role since
2006. Meanwhile, the Beavers have long struggled as a visitor in nonconference
play, dropping 5 of their last 6 spread verdicts.
NAVY
Anchors Aweigh, indeed, for the Naval Academy as it prepares to
again defend its Commander-in-Chief Trophy when traveling to
Colorado Springs for a Saturday battle vs. rival Air Force. The series
has been all Midshipmen lately, with the Annapolis bunch winning
and covering 5 straight at the Falcs’ expense. Navy has also been
an accomplished spread performer on the road for years, standing
11-4 vs. the line as a rod dog since ‘03. The Mids are also featured
recommendation in the Rivalry Dog and Power Underdog systems
this week.
NEVADA
It’s hard to grasp just how bad things are going for Idaho.
Certainly, the Vandals are one of the most-pronounced pointspread
cold streaks in recent memory, dropping 12 of their last 13 vs. the
number. Moreover, they’ve dropped their last 8 spread decisions at
home in the Kibbie Dome, where they’ll host surging Nevada
Saturday afternoon. The Wolf Pack, fresh off an exhilarating win
over rival UNLV, is a featured Streakbuster “Win” recommendation
this week. Further arguments supporting the case for Nevada
include the Pack’s solid chalk mark (18-8) since HC Chris Ault
returned to the sidelines in 2004, and Idaho’s poor -18.50 “AFS”
(“Away from Spread”) number its last two games on the board.
UCLA
Not often do we find a team continuing to appear on a weekly
basis on the plus or minus sides of the “AFS” (“Away from
Spread”) list, featured weekly in our Systems Spotlight feature.
And we certainly don’t recall a team continuing to stay at or near the
top of the “minus” list as has Washington State, which travels to
Pasadena for a Saturday date vs. UCLA. The Cougs’ latest “AFS”
number is a woeful -26.75 (two-game average), following recent
weeks in the minus 30 range, the most-extended and pronounced
AFS “minus” drought we can recall. Note the Bruins’18-5 spread
mark their last 23 at the Rose Bowl, and their inclusion as a featured
Streakbuster-Win recommendation this week.
OKLAHOMA STATE
It’s go-with vs. go-against when Oklahoma State plays host to
Texas A&M Saturday at Stillwater. “Go-with” means the Cowboys,
off to a 3-0 start vs. the number, and now 7-0 as double-digit chalk
since 2005. And in this matchup, “go-against” means the Aggies,
losers of 4 of 5 vs. the line since late last season and owners of a sorry
-19.00 “AFS” (“Away from Spread”) number their last 2 games
Northcoast PowerSweep
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP DOG (3-0)
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (1-4)
4* Michigan 30-20
3* Florida St. 21-17
3*Tulane 38-10
2*Notre Dame 34-17
2*Duke + 20-24
2*Western Mich. 30-16
Underdog Toledo +7 34-31
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
TOLEDO (+7) over Ball St
Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 180-124. Over the
last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 28 OUTRIGHT UPSET
WINNERS to the incredible record including last week with Michigan over
Wisconsin! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week:
BSU won at UT in ‘06 snapping a 5 game losing streak in the Glass Bowl. The HT is 11-3-1 SU winning
the L/11 by 20 ppg. LY at Muncie, Toledo had a 313-206 yd edge at the half in a 20-20 gm but thanks in
part to losing their QB to inj, did not score in the 2H and lost 41-20. BSU is 14-3 ATS on the road while
UT is 41-8 SU at home but has suffered 2 straight losses for the first time S/’85. UT, after almost upsetting
#25 Fresno St, was favored (-20) over FIU and led 13-0 but gave up 4 TO’s and despite 20-12 FD and
302-239 yd edges lost 35-16 as they all’d 4 TD drives that started in their own territory. UT played without
leading rusher Collins (360, 8.2, CS). UT QB Opelt is avg 182 ypg (57%) with a 7-2 ratio. BSU QB Davis
is avg 284 ypg (71%) with an 11-3 ratio. RB Lewis leads the tm with 645 yds (5.8). BSU is 5-0 SU and
3-1 ATS incl 2-0 SU in MAC play. The Cardinals had 26-18 FD and 423-353 yd edges winning 41-20 over
Kent but failed to cover as a 22 pt HF. UT is 1-0 SU & ATS in MAC play so the winner here will have a
step up in the MAC West race. BSU has the off (#28-57) and def (#83-94) edges but UT has played the
much tougher schedule (#42-105). On Sept 20th, Toledo (+7) delivered an Underdog Play Winner and
an almost outright upset of Fresno St (54-55) in this very spot. FORECAST: TOLEDO 34 Ball St 31
4* MICHIGAN over Illinois - LY with the game tied mid-4Q, IL fmbl’d a punt to set up a UM TD as
they lost 27-17 (+1). UM is 39-4-2 SU vs IL. IL is 5-2 as an AD (1-1 TY) but on its 2nd straight road trip
and this is Zook’s 1st trip to the Big House. Mich won as an Underdog POW on these pages and a 4H
LPS in the biggest UM comeback in Michigan Stadium history as they trailed Wisky 19-0 at the half.
Five UM 1H TO’s set up the Badgers but the Wolves, who had just 21 1H yds, exploded in the 2H for
247 yds & 27 pts (1 IR TD). Threet had a season high 58 yd run vs the Badgers but UM is #109 in the
NCAA in pass eff & #110 in ttl off. Wolves D allows 89 rush ypg (2.3) with 14 sks. IL lost at PSU 38-24
as they went for it on 4th & 2 at their own 48 early 3Q but were SOD and all’d 94 yd KR TD. QB Williams
avg 226 ypg (59%) with a 9-6 ratio and 283 rush yds. RB Dufrene (396, 6.7) suffered a shoulder inj LW
(CS). Illini allow 183 rush ypg (4.8). Wolves shutdown Williams & Co and take adv of a porous Illini D.
FORECAST: MICHIGAN 30 Illinois 20
3* Florida St over MIAMI, FL - This used to be one of the top rivalries but both have gone thru a
downturn recently (LY was 1st meeting S/’77 that neither ranked). This game is always close with the
L/7 decided by 4.4 ppg and none by more than 8. FSU was in control on LY’s game but let it slip away
(see PH) as FSU led 29-24 & UM scored 2 TD’s in :11 w/1:05 left. Miami is 7-2 SU in the series. FSU
won their last trip here in ‘06 13-10 (+3’) in a D struggle (176-134 yd edge, two tms 17 comb FD’s).
Shannon is 0-5 ATS in ACC HG’s with 4 upset losses as they were upset LW 28-24 (-8) vs NC. QB Marve
is avg 139 ypg (66%) with a 5-3 ratio. FSU is 5-9 as an AF. LW the Noles defeated Colorado 39-21 in
Bowden’s 500th game as a HC giving us our Sept GOM 5H Winner. FSU has a solid off and ST’s edge
(off #30-64, ST #37-73) but these 2 matchup pretty evenly on D (FSU #14-17). FSU QB Ponder is avg
137 ypg (51%) with a 6-4 ratio. RB Smith has rushed for 302 yds (5.7). FSU receives their final player
back from susp and you saw what they could do with their full compliment of players. The speedy D will
frustrate rFr QB Marve. FORECAST: Florida St 21 MIAMI, FL 17
3* TULANE over Army - This will be the first game at the outdoor Gormley Stadium S/‘04 and is HC.
Tulane is 5-1-1 SU at home vs Army (avg score 30-16) and the last trip here we used a 3H LPS on
Tulane (-5’) and they won easier than the 42-28 final with a 35-16 FD edge. LY was a tough loss for TU
as they led by 10 w/2:00 left but Army tied it on a Hail Mary and won in OT. TU had a 401-240 yd edge
and the departed RB Forte rushed for 202. That was Army’s last win as they have dropped 10 str. Army
is off their best off perf of the yr as their new option off finally started clicking. QB Bowden, in his first
start, led with 128 yds (3.8). They were only outgained 290-284 and had a 21-14 FD edge. The Knights
had just 1 TO, but A&M returned that fmbl 58 yds for a TD and held on to win 21-17, but Army easily
got their 1st cover of the yr (+28). Tulane does have 2 extra days to prep, which is always a plus, and is
all’g just 69 ypg rush (2.8). They led SMU 31-7 at the half but had to hang on to win 34-27 as we won
a Thur Night Marquee Play on SMU (+18). Tulane has played the tougher schedule (#59-111), has the
better off (#90-120) and D (#52-102) and catches Army in 2nd of B2B AG’s in a situation where they
had a disappointing finish in a competitive gm vs A&M. FORECAST: TULANE 38 Army 10
OTHER SELECTIONS
2H*NOTRE DAME over Stanford - This marks the12th straight year these 2 have met with ND winning
the L/6 SU (last loss hosting Stanford was in ‘92) while going 4-2 ATS. Irish QB Clausen (275 pass yds,
3 TD) and RB Allen (134 rush yds) recorded career highs allowing ND to pull away in the 2H vs Pur
while delivering a 3H LPS Winner. The Irish have gone 25-12-1 SU & 23-15 ATS all-time vs the P10
but Weis has struggled as a HF going just 3-8 ATS. These schools combined for 6 TO’s, 5 missed FG’s,
4 plays overturned by replay & 9 PF’s LY with ND actually the underdog on the road in their 21-14 win
(+4’).The Cardinal are in their 4th RG in 5 weeks and now travel to the Midwest in a P10 sandwich after
gaining a ssn best 466 yds vs a weak Husky defense as bkup RB Kimble marched for a career-high
157 yds replacing an inj’d RB Gerhart (concussion-CS) midway through the 1Q. While the dog in this
series has gone 6-3 ATS in recent years, the resurgent Irish should be too much for the road weary
Cardinal in this one. FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 34 Stanford 17
2* Duke (+) over GEORGIA TECH - The winner in this series has won by DD 19 of 22 gms (86%). GT
is 12-1 SU in the series, has won 6 straight in Atl, is off a bye and only has a IAA foe on deck. Duke DC
MacIntyre played football for GT for 2 years. Duke got some excellent prep work for this as they faced
Johnson’s old team Navy (held Midshipmen to a ssn low 13 FD’s & 207 rush yds) on Sept 13 and has
a bye next week. Since Duke upset GT in ‘03 the Wreck has won the L/4 by 22 ppg. Johnson is 4-9 as
a HF and Cutcliffe is 4-2 as an AD but this is their road opener. GT is avg 307 rush pg (#5 NCAA). GT
is holding opp’s to just over 14 ppg and has been especially aggressive creating TO’s (11). QB Nesbitt
suffered a hamstring 2 wks ago but Johnson said he could be back vs Duke. On the season Nesbitt
is avg 140 ypg ttl off. RB Dwyer has 389 rush yds (8.1). GT has the edge on both sides of the ball (off
#31-77, def #40-46). Duke is 1 holding pen away from being unbeaten. They snapped a 25 gm ACC
losing streak with their 31-3 win over UVA LW & are off to their best start S/’94. QB Lewis is #2 in the
ACC avg 219 ypg (61%) with a 7-2 ratio. WR Riley has 22 rec (12.2). Duke is a much improved team
allowing 117 less ypg than LY. Duke showed LW that they’re learning how to win under SEC Coach
Cutcliffe and takes the next step. FORECAST: Duke 20 (+) GEORGIA TECH 24
2* W MICHIGAN over Ohio - The Bobcats are 2-9 SU visiting Kalamazoo with wins in ‘96 & ‘98. Last
met in ‘06 and Ohio, despite just 10 FD, still won at home 27-20 (+4). This is HC for WM and their only
IA HG in a 2 month span so the fans should be hungry. Ohio is 1-4 SU (only win vs IAA tm) with their
avg loss by 6 ppg but is 4-1 ATS. WM is 4-1 SU but 1-3 ATS. WM was avg over 36 ppg but was held to
just 7 pts vs Temple. Ohio is 0-1 SU in MAC play and WM is 2-0 SU in MAC play (0-2 ATS) winning by
a comb 7 pts. Despite having just 35 yds vs TU LW, WM RB West leads w/467 (5.8) which is more than
twice the rest of the tm combined. WM QB Hiller avg 271 ypg (70%) with a 15-3 ratio. Ohio QB Jackson
in his 3 starts is avg 293 ypg (63%) with a 6-2 ratio. The Bobcats top rusher is Harden with 274 (5.3).
The Broncos have a slight def edge (#65-71) and a bigger off edge (#67-101). WM came up flat vs the
Owls without their starting QB but now stay focused at home. Nothing wrong with their D as they’ve
held their L/2 opp to 23 ttl FD’s and 474 combined yds. FORECAST: W MICHIGAN 30 Ohio 16
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP DOG (3-0)
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (1-4)
4* Michigan 30-20
3* Florida St. 21-17
3*Tulane 38-10
2*Notre Dame 34-17
2*Duke + 20-24
2*Western Mich. 30-16
Underdog Toledo +7 34-31
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
TOLEDO (+7) over Ball St
Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 180-124. Over the
last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 28 OUTRIGHT UPSET
WINNERS to the incredible record including last week with Michigan over
Wisconsin! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week:
BSU won at UT in ‘06 snapping a 5 game losing streak in the Glass Bowl. The HT is 11-3-1 SU winning
the L/11 by 20 ppg. LY at Muncie, Toledo had a 313-206 yd edge at the half in a 20-20 gm but thanks in
part to losing their QB to inj, did not score in the 2H and lost 41-20. BSU is 14-3 ATS on the road while
UT is 41-8 SU at home but has suffered 2 straight losses for the first time S/’85. UT, after almost upsetting
#25 Fresno St, was favored (-20) over FIU and led 13-0 but gave up 4 TO’s and despite 20-12 FD and
302-239 yd edges lost 35-16 as they all’d 4 TD drives that started in their own territory. UT played without
leading rusher Collins (360, 8.2, CS). UT QB Opelt is avg 182 ypg (57%) with a 7-2 ratio. BSU QB Davis
is avg 284 ypg (71%) with an 11-3 ratio. RB Lewis leads the tm with 645 yds (5.8). BSU is 5-0 SU and
3-1 ATS incl 2-0 SU in MAC play. The Cardinals had 26-18 FD and 423-353 yd edges winning 41-20 over
Kent but failed to cover as a 22 pt HF. UT is 1-0 SU & ATS in MAC play so the winner here will have a
step up in the MAC West race. BSU has the off (#28-57) and def (#83-94) edges but UT has played the
much tougher schedule (#42-105). On Sept 20th, Toledo (+7) delivered an Underdog Play Winner and
an almost outright upset of Fresno St (54-55) in this very spot. FORECAST: TOLEDO 34 Ball St 31
4* MICHIGAN over Illinois - LY with the game tied mid-4Q, IL fmbl’d a punt to set up a UM TD as
they lost 27-17 (+1). UM is 39-4-2 SU vs IL. IL is 5-2 as an AD (1-1 TY) but on its 2nd straight road trip
and this is Zook’s 1st trip to the Big House. Mich won as an Underdog POW on these pages and a 4H
LPS in the biggest UM comeback in Michigan Stadium history as they trailed Wisky 19-0 at the half.
Five UM 1H TO’s set up the Badgers but the Wolves, who had just 21 1H yds, exploded in the 2H for
247 yds & 27 pts (1 IR TD). Threet had a season high 58 yd run vs the Badgers but UM is #109 in the
NCAA in pass eff & #110 in ttl off. Wolves D allows 89 rush ypg (2.3) with 14 sks. IL lost at PSU 38-24
as they went for it on 4th & 2 at their own 48 early 3Q but were SOD and all’d 94 yd KR TD. QB Williams
avg 226 ypg (59%) with a 9-6 ratio and 283 rush yds. RB Dufrene (396, 6.7) suffered a shoulder inj LW
(CS). Illini allow 183 rush ypg (4.8). Wolves shutdown Williams & Co and take adv of a porous Illini D.
FORECAST: MICHIGAN 30 Illinois 20
3* Florida St over MIAMI, FL - This used to be one of the top rivalries but both have gone thru a
downturn recently (LY was 1st meeting S/’77 that neither ranked). This game is always close with the
L/7 decided by 4.4 ppg and none by more than 8. FSU was in control on LY’s game but let it slip away
(see PH) as FSU led 29-24 & UM scored 2 TD’s in :11 w/1:05 left. Miami is 7-2 SU in the series. FSU
won their last trip here in ‘06 13-10 (+3’) in a D struggle (176-134 yd edge, two tms 17 comb FD’s).
Shannon is 0-5 ATS in ACC HG’s with 4 upset losses as they were upset LW 28-24 (-8) vs NC. QB Marve
is avg 139 ypg (66%) with a 5-3 ratio. FSU is 5-9 as an AF. LW the Noles defeated Colorado 39-21 in
Bowden’s 500th game as a HC giving us our Sept GOM 5H Winner. FSU has a solid off and ST’s edge
(off #30-64, ST #37-73) but these 2 matchup pretty evenly on D (FSU #14-17). FSU QB Ponder is avg
137 ypg (51%) with a 6-4 ratio. RB Smith has rushed for 302 yds (5.7). FSU receives their final player
back from susp and you saw what they could do with their full compliment of players. The speedy D will
frustrate rFr QB Marve. FORECAST: Florida St 21 MIAMI, FL 17
3* TULANE over Army - This will be the first game at the outdoor Gormley Stadium S/‘04 and is HC.
Tulane is 5-1-1 SU at home vs Army (avg score 30-16) and the last trip here we used a 3H LPS on
Tulane (-5’) and they won easier than the 42-28 final with a 35-16 FD edge. LY was a tough loss for TU
as they led by 10 w/2:00 left but Army tied it on a Hail Mary and won in OT. TU had a 401-240 yd edge
and the departed RB Forte rushed for 202. That was Army’s last win as they have dropped 10 str. Army
is off their best off perf of the yr as their new option off finally started clicking. QB Bowden, in his first
start, led with 128 yds (3.8). They were only outgained 290-284 and had a 21-14 FD edge. The Knights
had just 1 TO, but A&M returned that fmbl 58 yds for a TD and held on to win 21-17, but Army easily
got their 1st cover of the yr (+28). Tulane does have 2 extra days to prep, which is always a plus, and is
all’g just 69 ypg rush (2.8). They led SMU 31-7 at the half but had to hang on to win 34-27 as we won
a Thur Night Marquee Play on SMU (+18). Tulane has played the tougher schedule (#59-111), has the
better off (#90-120) and D (#52-102) and catches Army in 2nd of B2B AG’s in a situation where they
had a disappointing finish in a competitive gm vs A&M. FORECAST: TULANE 38 Army 10
OTHER SELECTIONS
2H*NOTRE DAME over Stanford - This marks the12th straight year these 2 have met with ND winning
the L/6 SU (last loss hosting Stanford was in ‘92) while going 4-2 ATS. Irish QB Clausen (275 pass yds,
3 TD) and RB Allen (134 rush yds) recorded career highs allowing ND to pull away in the 2H vs Pur
while delivering a 3H LPS Winner. The Irish have gone 25-12-1 SU & 23-15 ATS all-time vs the P10
but Weis has struggled as a HF going just 3-8 ATS. These schools combined for 6 TO’s, 5 missed FG’s,
4 plays overturned by replay & 9 PF’s LY with ND actually the underdog on the road in their 21-14 win
(+4’).The Cardinal are in their 4th RG in 5 weeks and now travel to the Midwest in a P10 sandwich after
gaining a ssn best 466 yds vs a weak Husky defense as bkup RB Kimble marched for a career-high
157 yds replacing an inj’d RB Gerhart (concussion-CS) midway through the 1Q. While the dog in this
series has gone 6-3 ATS in recent years, the resurgent Irish should be too much for the road weary
Cardinal in this one. FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 34 Stanford 17
2* Duke (+) over GEORGIA TECH - The winner in this series has won by DD 19 of 22 gms (86%). GT
is 12-1 SU in the series, has won 6 straight in Atl, is off a bye and only has a IAA foe on deck. Duke DC
MacIntyre played football for GT for 2 years. Duke got some excellent prep work for this as they faced
Johnson’s old team Navy (held Midshipmen to a ssn low 13 FD’s & 207 rush yds) on Sept 13 and has
a bye next week. Since Duke upset GT in ‘03 the Wreck has won the L/4 by 22 ppg. Johnson is 4-9 as
a HF and Cutcliffe is 4-2 as an AD but this is their road opener. GT is avg 307 rush pg (#5 NCAA). GT
is holding opp’s to just over 14 ppg and has been especially aggressive creating TO’s (11). QB Nesbitt
suffered a hamstring 2 wks ago but Johnson said he could be back vs Duke. On the season Nesbitt
is avg 140 ypg ttl off. RB Dwyer has 389 rush yds (8.1). GT has the edge on both sides of the ball (off
#31-77, def #40-46). Duke is 1 holding pen away from being unbeaten. They snapped a 25 gm ACC
losing streak with their 31-3 win over UVA LW & are off to their best start S/’94. QB Lewis is #2 in the
ACC avg 219 ypg (61%) with a 7-2 ratio. WR Riley has 22 rec (12.2). Duke is a much improved team
allowing 117 less ypg than LY. Duke showed LW that they’re learning how to win under SEC Coach
Cutcliffe and takes the next step. FORECAST: Duke 20 (+) GEORGIA TECH 24
2* W MICHIGAN over Ohio - The Bobcats are 2-9 SU visiting Kalamazoo with wins in ‘96 & ‘98. Last
met in ‘06 and Ohio, despite just 10 FD, still won at home 27-20 (+4). This is HC for WM and their only
IA HG in a 2 month span so the fans should be hungry. Ohio is 1-4 SU (only win vs IAA tm) with their
avg loss by 6 ppg but is 4-1 ATS. WM is 4-1 SU but 1-3 ATS. WM was avg over 36 ppg but was held to
just 7 pts vs Temple. Ohio is 0-1 SU in MAC play and WM is 2-0 SU in MAC play (0-2 ATS) winning by
a comb 7 pts. Despite having just 35 yds vs TU LW, WM RB West leads w/467 (5.8) which is more than
twice the rest of the tm combined. WM QB Hiller avg 271 ypg (70%) with a 15-3 ratio. Ohio QB Jackson
in his 3 starts is avg 293 ypg (63%) with a 6-2 ratio. The Bobcats top rusher is Harden with 274 (5.3).
The Broncos have a slight def edge (#65-71) and a bigger off edge (#67-101). WM came up flat vs the
Owls without their starting QB but now stay focused at home. Nothing wrong with their D as they’ve
held their L/2 opp to 23 ttl FD’s and 474 combined yds. FORECAST: W MICHIGAN 30 Ohio 16
THE RED SHEET
THE RED SHEET 88* (7-7-1)
THE RED SHEET 89* (5-4-1)
RATINGS:
89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
South Carolina 27 - MISSISSIPPI 20 - (2:00 EDT) --Line opened at Mississippi minus 3, and is now minus 2½. This contest sets up perfectly for the Gamecocks, not only catching the Rebs off their epic draining upset of Florida, but also on the heels of their previous grinder vs Vandy. SC has been somewhat of a disappointment so far, but took Georgia to the final gun, & is in off a couple of warmups, Wofford & UAB. The 'Cocks field the 9th best "D" in the nation, & top passing "D", which should put Reb QB Snead to the test. SEC has been dog heaven in this type of affair, & Spurrier has been a premier road pup play. And again.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 89
OKLAHOMA STATE 55 - Texas A&M 20 - (7:00) --Line opened at OklahomaSt minus 23½, and is now minus 24½. The Cowboys have to be the number one "under the radar" team in the land, just now sneaking into the Top 25 (21st & 22nd in the polls). Their triumvirate of QB Robinson (5th ranked passer in the land), Hunter (#3 rusher), & Bryant (#5 receiver) lead the nation's 3rd rated scoring offense. Contrast that to the Aggies, who've rank 101st in total offense, are 103rd in rushing (133 RYs vs Army), & are hurting at QB. Toss in the fact that the 'Pokes have dropped 2 straight series heartbreakers. Revenge in true style.
RATING: OKLAHOMA STATE 89
MIAMI-OHIO 30 - Temple 10 - (3:30) --Line opened at Miami minus 8, and is now minus 7. A week ago, we went against these Owls, in their home match with WesternMichigan, figuring that their offensive production would take a nose-dive, with the loss of QB DeMichele, & it more than proved out, as Temple managed but a mere FG vs the Broncos. However, it ended in a
push, as Western, despite a 252-60 PY edge, & an 18-10 FD advantage, was able to post just 7 pts itself. But the Owls must now travel to a Miami team,which has already faced a non-conference slate of Vandy, Michigan, & Cincinnati. Another revenger.
RATING: MIAMI-OHIO 88
BOWLING GREEN 48 - Eastern Michigan 10 - (4:00) --Line opened at BowlingGreen minus 20, and is now minus 21. The Falcons of BG are another rather unnoticed team, as their 2-2 log would indicate. However, those setbacks came vs the likes of Minnesota & Boise. So note that the Gophers have but a single loss, to OhioSt, while the Broncos are perfect, while holding down the 17th spot in the nation. Not only that, but the Falcs played Minny even-up, statwise, except for a 5-0 TO deficit. And their loss to Boise again was due to the OT (3), as BG had 22-16 FD edge. Eagles allowing 44 ppg in their last 7 lined games.
RATING: BOWLING GREEN 88
Akron 34 - KENT STATE 14 - (12:00) --Line opened at Akron minus 3½, and is still minus 3½. As long as the Flashes are on the board, there is only one way to go. That's right, an 0-11 spread run! And as we noted on Pointwise, earlier in the week, they are minus 146½ pts ATS in their last 6 games. They have actually been decent, overland, but their ace RB Jarvis is now hurting (ankle). Defensively, they can't stop much, ranking 105th overall, including 114th vs the run. The Zips' record is a bit deceiving, with 2 of their 3 losses coming vs Wisconsin (5½ pt cover), & Cincinnati (9-pt cover). Leadership of Jacquemain decides it.
RATING: AKRON 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): TCU, Missouri, MichiganSt, UCLA --
THE RED SHEET 88* (7-7-1)
THE RED SHEET 89* (5-4-1)
RATINGS:
89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
South Carolina 27 - MISSISSIPPI 20 - (2:00 EDT) --Line opened at Mississippi minus 3, and is now minus 2½. This contest sets up perfectly for the Gamecocks, not only catching the Rebs off their epic draining upset of Florida, but also on the heels of their previous grinder vs Vandy. SC has been somewhat of a disappointment so far, but took Georgia to the final gun, & is in off a couple of warmups, Wofford & UAB. The 'Cocks field the 9th best "D" in the nation, & top passing "D", which should put Reb QB Snead to the test. SEC has been dog heaven in this type of affair, & Spurrier has been a premier road pup play. And again.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 89
OKLAHOMA STATE 55 - Texas A&M 20 - (7:00) --Line opened at OklahomaSt minus 23½, and is now minus 24½. The Cowboys have to be the number one "under the radar" team in the land, just now sneaking into the Top 25 (21st & 22nd in the polls). Their triumvirate of QB Robinson (5th ranked passer in the land), Hunter (#3 rusher), & Bryant (#5 receiver) lead the nation's 3rd rated scoring offense. Contrast that to the Aggies, who've rank 101st in total offense, are 103rd in rushing (133 RYs vs Army), & are hurting at QB. Toss in the fact that the 'Pokes have dropped 2 straight series heartbreakers. Revenge in true style.
RATING: OKLAHOMA STATE 89
MIAMI-OHIO 30 - Temple 10 - (3:30) --Line opened at Miami minus 8, and is now minus 7. A week ago, we went against these Owls, in their home match with WesternMichigan, figuring that their offensive production would take a nose-dive, with the loss of QB DeMichele, & it more than proved out, as Temple managed but a mere FG vs the Broncos. However, it ended in a
push, as Western, despite a 252-60 PY edge, & an 18-10 FD advantage, was able to post just 7 pts itself. But the Owls must now travel to a Miami team,which has already faced a non-conference slate of Vandy, Michigan, & Cincinnati. Another revenger.
RATING: MIAMI-OHIO 88
BOWLING GREEN 48 - Eastern Michigan 10 - (4:00) --Line opened at BowlingGreen minus 20, and is now minus 21. The Falcons of BG are another rather unnoticed team, as their 2-2 log would indicate. However, those setbacks came vs the likes of Minnesota & Boise. So note that the Gophers have but a single loss, to OhioSt, while the Broncos are perfect, while holding down the 17th spot in the nation. Not only that, but the Falcs played Minny even-up, statwise, except for a 5-0 TO deficit. And their loss to Boise again was due to the OT (3), as BG had 22-16 FD edge. Eagles allowing 44 ppg in their last 7 lined games.
RATING: BOWLING GREEN 88
Akron 34 - KENT STATE 14 - (12:00) --Line opened at Akron minus 3½, and is still minus 3½. As long as the Flashes are on the board, there is only one way to go. That's right, an 0-11 spread run! And as we noted on Pointwise, earlier in the week, they are minus 146½ pts ATS in their last 6 games. They have actually been decent, overland, but their ace RB Jarvis is now hurting (ankle). Defensively, they can't stop much, ranking 105th overall, including 114th vs the run. The Zips' record is a bit deceiving, with 2 of their 3 losses coming vs Wisconsin (5½ pt cover), & Cincinnati (9-pt cover). Leadership of Jacquemain decides it.
RATING: AKRON 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): TCU, Missouri, MichiganSt, UCLA --
HQ Report Newsletter 10/4
HQ REPORT 5* (3-1-1)
HQ REPORT UNDERDOG PLAY OF WEEK (4-1)
HQ REPORT ATS (3-2)
HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL (2-3)
5* BALL STATE (-7) over Toledo by 17
3* Connecticut (+7) over North Carolina
3* Ohio U (+4) over Western Michigan
3* Texas Tech (-7) over Kansas State by 14
*HQ Underdog Play of the Week
TOP PLAY--UTEP (+8) over Southern Mississippi (4-1)
*HQ Total Recall Over/Under
Single Play--Indiana vs Minnesota Play Over
*A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems)
TOP PLAY --South Carolina (+3) over Mississippi
HQ REPORT 5* (3-1-1)
HQ REPORT UNDERDOG PLAY OF WEEK (4-1)
HQ REPORT ATS (3-2)
HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL (2-3)
5* BALL STATE (-7) over Toledo by 17
3* Connecticut (+7) over North Carolina
3* Ohio U (+4) over Western Michigan
3* Texas Tech (-7) over Kansas State by 14
*HQ Underdog Play of the Week
TOP PLAY--UTEP (+8) over Southern Mississippi (4-1)
*HQ Total Recall Over/Under
Single Play--Indiana vs Minnesota Play Over
*A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems)
TOP PLAY --South Carolina (+3) over Mississippi
Mark Lawrence
5* (4-1)
4* (2-3)..
UPSET (0-3)
5* BEST BET
South Carolina over Old Miss by 13
What in the world can Houston Nutt do for an encore? After outplaying
fearsome Florida in the Swamp and leaving Gainesville with a 31-
30 signature win (snapped a 9-game SEC losing streak), Nutt and his
rejuvenated Rebels are suddenly a ‘playuh’ in the SEC. Bear in mind with
a few lucky bounces against Wake Forest and Vanderbilt, Ole Miss could
easily be 5-0 and wearing a national ranking in addition to the 2008
‘glass slipper’. Still, we’re compelled to remind you that South Carolina’s
Steve Spurrier owns a profi table 45-22-1 SU and 45-23 ATS record on the
conference road in his college head-coaching career. The ol’ ball coach
may not have cashed the ticket in last week’s win over UAB but he fi nally
got to keep QB Stephen Garcia on the fi eld for an extended period of
time and the redshirt freshman revived the moribund Gamecock offense
(completed 13-of-20 passes for 131 yards and scrambled for 86 more).
That’s good news for a team that lost SU at Columbia as 17-point favorites
in their last meeting with the Rebels. Much like the Oregon State game
on Thursday, Ole Miss falls into the ‘teams off a SU dog win of 20 or
more points’ scenario, a feeble 8-16 ATS proposition when taking on a
foe off back-to-back SU wins. Nutt appears to have his Ole Miss team on
the fast track to success but following their huge win over the Gators,
the Rebels’ feet don’t fi gure to hit the ground here until they go into
the locker room at halftime. The clincher is Nutt’s poor 4-15 ATS record
versus conference opponents off a SU win (0-6 if he’s off a SUATS win).
Gamecocks are 5-0 ‘ITS’ this year and will show up HUNGRY
4* BEST BET
Alabama over Kentucky by 3
Folks in south Florida may still despise the ground he walks on but there’s
no denying coach Nick Saban has damn near performed miracles with
the Alabama program since he arrived at Tuscaloosa in 2007. Last week’s
shocking domination of preseason No. 1 Georgia at Athens moved the
Tide up to 4th spot in the Coaches Poll – and also drove the line up on
this matchup by at least a fi eld goal. After such a monster effort, Saban
will be hard-pressed to get his team up for a so-so Kentucky team. Bama’s
poor ATS history in today’s role doesn’t help, either. Bear’s descendants
are a woeful 0-4 ATS home off BB road games and just 3-12 ATS in Game
Six (Saban is also only 6-12-1 ATS off a SU dog win). Kentucky coach Rich
Brooks has led his Wildcats to an impressive 9-0 SU record in the fi rst fi ve
games of the past two seasons. UK is also 5-1 ATS away off BB homers and
5-1 ATS off a DD non-SEC win. THIS JUST IN: Since 2005, 4-0 road dogs are
11-2 ATS in Game Five. Did we mention that Bama is also a SMART BOX
3* BEST BET
Georgia Tech over Duke by 24
Hell officially froze over last weekend in Durham, NC, when Duke
absolutely bedeviled visiting Virginia in a merciless 31-3 beating. But
even though the win elevated the Dukies’ 2008 record to a surprising
3-1, expect a rapid thaw to set in Saturday when the Blue Beelzebubs
head down I-85 to Atlanta. If you’ve yet to climb aboard the Georgia
Tech ATS train, don’t let it leave the station without you. We’ve been
Paul Johnson fans from way back and his 2-1 ATS start this season has
increased his pointspread prowess to 35-21-1 since the beginning of
2004. Even better, Johnson is 11-4 SUATS during the regular season when
playing with rest, including 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS as chalk of more than 3
points. Our powerful database backs that up with this beauty: Game Five
teams playing their fi rst road game off a SUATS win are only 7-17 versus
the number. Hey, Duke took this many points at home last year in a 41-24
loss and they were 25-point dogs here in a 28-point loss in 2006! Looks
like David Cutcliffe’s Devils will start a new ACC losing skein here today as
Tech males a wreck out of Duke.
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
NEBRASKA over Missouri by 3
Go ahead… laugh if you want. The truth is No. 3 Missouri has beaten a
trio of 98-pound weaklings after opening the season with a diffi cult 10-
point win over Illinois. Translation: sure the Tigers are good but they’re
going to have to step WAY UP to prove it here today. The Corn Boys have
a bumper crop of good stats tucked in their silo: they’re 6-0 ATS playing
in their fourth straight at Lincoln, 13-2 SU and 14-1 ATS taking on Big 12
adversaries when playing off if three in a row at home and 10-1 SU and
ATS home versus undefeated conference opponents. Whew! The big, bad
Tigers are a woeful 0-3-1 lately as double-digit road chalk and they’ve
covered just ONCE if their last fi ve tries coming off a bye week. True,
Nebraska failed its fi rst major test against Virginia Tech but the Huskers
were undone by two Hokie trademarks, special teams and defense…
not exactly Missouri’s forte. With Nebraska the subject of this week’s
INCREDIBLE STAT (page 3), we can’t fade numbers like these – especially
when the series host has cashed six straight tickets. Children of the Corn
turn Memorial Stadium into a house of horrors for Mizzou today.
5* (4-1)
4* (2-3)..
UPSET (0-3)
5* BEST BET
South Carolina over Old Miss by 13
What in the world can Houston Nutt do for an encore? After outplaying
fearsome Florida in the Swamp and leaving Gainesville with a 31-
30 signature win (snapped a 9-game SEC losing streak), Nutt and his
rejuvenated Rebels are suddenly a ‘playuh’ in the SEC. Bear in mind with
a few lucky bounces against Wake Forest and Vanderbilt, Ole Miss could
easily be 5-0 and wearing a national ranking in addition to the 2008
‘glass slipper’. Still, we’re compelled to remind you that South Carolina’s
Steve Spurrier owns a profi table 45-22-1 SU and 45-23 ATS record on the
conference road in his college head-coaching career. The ol’ ball coach
may not have cashed the ticket in last week’s win over UAB but he fi nally
got to keep QB Stephen Garcia on the fi eld for an extended period of
time and the redshirt freshman revived the moribund Gamecock offense
(completed 13-of-20 passes for 131 yards and scrambled for 86 more).
That’s good news for a team that lost SU at Columbia as 17-point favorites
in their last meeting with the Rebels. Much like the Oregon State game
on Thursday, Ole Miss falls into the ‘teams off a SU dog win of 20 or
more points’ scenario, a feeble 8-16 ATS proposition when taking on a
foe off back-to-back SU wins. Nutt appears to have his Ole Miss team on
the fast track to success but following their huge win over the Gators,
the Rebels’ feet don’t fi gure to hit the ground here until they go into
the locker room at halftime. The clincher is Nutt’s poor 4-15 ATS record
versus conference opponents off a SU win (0-6 if he’s off a SUATS win).
Gamecocks are 5-0 ‘ITS’ this year and will show up HUNGRY
4* BEST BET
Alabama over Kentucky by 3
Folks in south Florida may still despise the ground he walks on but there’s
no denying coach Nick Saban has damn near performed miracles with
the Alabama program since he arrived at Tuscaloosa in 2007. Last week’s
shocking domination of preseason No. 1 Georgia at Athens moved the
Tide up to 4th spot in the Coaches Poll – and also drove the line up on
this matchup by at least a fi eld goal. After such a monster effort, Saban
will be hard-pressed to get his team up for a so-so Kentucky team. Bama’s
poor ATS history in today’s role doesn’t help, either. Bear’s descendants
are a woeful 0-4 ATS home off BB road games and just 3-12 ATS in Game
Six (Saban is also only 6-12-1 ATS off a SU dog win). Kentucky coach Rich
Brooks has led his Wildcats to an impressive 9-0 SU record in the fi rst fi ve
games of the past two seasons. UK is also 5-1 ATS away off BB homers and
5-1 ATS off a DD non-SEC win. THIS JUST IN: Since 2005, 4-0 road dogs are
11-2 ATS in Game Five. Did we mention that Bama is also a SMART BOX
3* BEST BET
Georgia Tech over Duke by 24
Hell officially froze over last weekend in Durham, NC, when Duke
absolutely bedeviled visiting Virginia in a merciless 31-3 beating. But
even though the win elevated the Dukies’ 2008 record to a surprising
3-1, expect a rapid thaw to set in Saturday when the Blue Beelzebubs
head down I-85 to Atlanta. If you’ve yet to climb aboard the Georgia
Tech ATS train, don’t let it leave the station without you. We’ve been
Paul Johnson fans from way back and his 2-1 ATS start this season has
increased his pointspread prowess to 35-21-1 since the beginning of
2004. Even better, Johnson is 11-4 SUATS during the regular season when
playing with rest, including 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS as chalk of more than 3
points. Our powerful database backs that up with this beauty: Game Five
teams playing their fi rst road game off a SUATS win are only 7-17 versus
the number. Hey, Duke took this many points at home last year in a 41-24
loss and they were 25-point dogs here in a 28-point loss in 2006! Looks
like David Cutcliffe’s Devils will start a new ACC losing skein here today as
Tech males a wreck out of Duke.
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
NEBRASKA over Missouri by 3
Go ahead… laugh if you want. The truth is No. 3 Missouri has beaten a
trio of 98-pound weaklings after opening the season with a diffi cult 10-
point win over Illinois. Translation: sure the Tigers are good but they’re
going to have to step WAY UP to prove it here today. The Corn Boys have
a bumper crop of good stats tucked in their silo: they’re 6-0 ATS playing
in their fourth straight at Lincoln, 13-2 SU and 14-1 ATS taking on Big 12
adversaries when playing off if three in a row at home and 10-1 SU and
ATS home versus undefeated conference opponents. Whew! The big, bad
Tigers are a woeful 0-3-1 lately as double-digit road chalk and they’ve
covered just ONCE if their last fi ve tries coming off a bye week. True,
Nebraska failed its fi rst major test against Virginia Tech but the Huskers
were undone by two Hokie trademarks, special teams and defense…
not exactly Missouri’s forte. With Nebraska the subject of this week’s
INCREDIBLE STAT (page 3), we can’t fade numbers like these – especially
when the series host has cashed six straight tickets. Children of the Corn
turn Memorial Stadium into a house of horrors for Mizzou today.
THE SPORTS MEMO -
ED CASH (4-0)
BRENT CROW (1-2)
ERIN RYNNING (1-0)
ROB VENO (1-1)
TEDDY COVERS (0-2).
TIM TRUSHEL (1-1).
JARED KLEIN (2-0)
ROB VENO
RUTGERS AT WEST VIRGINIA -14
Recommendation: West Virginia
ED CASH
DUKE +14 AT GEORGIA TECH
Recommendation: Duke
TEDDY COVERS
TEXAS TECH -7 AT KANSAS STATE
Recommendation: Texas Tech
JARED KLEIN
OHIO STATE AT WISCONSIN +3
Recommendation: Wisconsin
TIM TRUSHEL
OKLAHOMA AT BAYLOR +27
Recommendation: Baylor
BRENT CROW
TEXAS AT COLORADO +14
Recommendation: Colorado
ERIN RYNNING
ILLINOIS +2.5 AT MICHIGAN
Recommendation: Illinois
ED CASH (4-0)
BRENT CROW (1-2)
ERIN RYNNING (1-0)
ROB VENO (1-1)
TEDDY COVERS (0-2).
TIM TRUSHEL (1-1).
JARED KLEIN (2-0)
ROB VENO
RUTGERS AT WEST VIRGINIA -14
Recommendation: West Virginia
ED CASH
DUKE +14 AT GEORGIA TECH
Recommendation: Duke
TEDDY COVERS
TEXAS TECH -7 AT KANSAS STATE
Recommendation: Texas Tech
JARED KLEIN
OHIO STATE AT WISCONSIN +3
Recommendation: Wisconsin
TIM TRUSHEL
OKLAHOMA AT BAYLOR +27
Recommendation: Baylor
BRENT CROW
TEXAS AT COLORADO +14
Recommendation: Colorado
ERIN RYNNING
ILLINOIS +2.5 AT MICHIGAN
Recommendation: Illinois
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THE SPORTS REPORTER - NCAA
SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (6-11-1)
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (9-7-1)
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (1-2)
SUPER BEST BET
RUTGERS over *WEST VIRGINIA by 8
RUTGERS, 27-19.
BEST BET
*GEORGIA TECH over DUKE by 26
GEORGIA TECH, 41-15.
BEST BET
*MIAMI-OH over TEMPLE by 20
MIAMI-OH, 23-3.
BEST BET
MISSOURI over *NEBRASKA by 21
MISSOURI, 48-27.
BEST BET
*COLORADO over TEXAS by 1
COLORADO, 27-26.
BEST BET
*OKLAHOMA STATE over TEXAS A&M by 35
OKLAHOMA STATE, 48-13.
BEST BET
OHIO STATE over *WISCONSIN by 15
OHIO STATE, 25-10.
SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (6-11-1)
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (9-7-1)
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (1-2)
SUPER BEST BET
RUTGERS over *WEST VIRGINIA by 8
RUTGERS, 27-19.
BEST BET
*GEORGIA TECH over DUKE by 26
GEORGIA TECH, 41-15.
BEST BET
*MIAMI-OH over TEMPLE by 20
MIAMI-OH, 23-3.
BEST BET
MISSOURI over *NEBRASKA by 21
MISSOURI, 48-27.
BEST BET
*COLORADO over TEXAS by 1
COLORADO, 27-26.
BEST BET
*OKLAHOMA STATE over TEXAS A&M by 35
OKLAHOMA STATE, 48-13.
BEST BET
OHIO STATE over *WISCONSIN by 15
OHIO STATE, 25-10.
Last edited by a moderator:
THE GOLD SHEET (9-11).
KEY RELEASES
MICHIGAN STATE by 19 over Iowa
CONNECTICUT by 3 over North Carolina
VANDERBILT by 5 over Auburn
ALABAMA by 28 over Kentucky
MICHIGAN STATE 36 - Iowa 17—MSU’s RB Ringer has 681 YR in his
last 3 games and leads the nation in scoring. Meanwhile QB Brian Hoyer
showed improved form at Indiana, throwing for 261 yds. & 2 TDs with no
interceptions. Iowa’s 5-TO performance against Northwestern shows Hawkeye
offense still has problems. QB Ricky Stanzi has 3 ints., just 1 TDP in last 54
passes, and a late-game head injury to star RB Greene clouds the offensive
picture. Iowa on 9-19-1 spread run. TV-ESPN2
(07-IOWA 34-Mich. St. 27 (OT)...M.23-13 I.44/230 M.52/160 M.25/44/0/308 I.5/15/0/53 I.0 M.1)
(07-IOWA +3 34-27 (OT)...SR: Iowa 20-17-2
*Connecticut 27 - NORTH CAROLINA 24—Both teams off uplifting
come-from-behind road wins led by reserve QBs. UConn soph QB Frazer
(Notre Dame transfer) has nation’s leading rusher in jr. Donald Brown (906 YR & 11
TDs), a physical OL featuring two 5th-yr. seniors and a more veteran defense that’s
allowed just 14 ppg. Favor undefeated Huskies energized by confident HC Edsall.
TV-ESPN2 (DNP...SR: N. Carolina 1-0)
*VANDERBILT 22 - Auburn 17—Since Auburn QB Todd (last in SEC
in pass efficiency) struggling in new spread attack (Tigers last in 3rd-down
conversions), willing to “take” with rested, confident Vandy, led by versatile QB
Nickson, who is expected to welcome back previously-injured WR G. Smith (top
returning pass catcher). Doubt Todd or backup Burns will suddenly shine vs.
aggressive, mistake-creating ‘Dore defense (11 sacks; 10 ints.), spearheaded by
marvelous, 2-way performer D. J. Moore (37 YR vs. Rice). TV-ESPN
(07-AUB. 35-Vandy 7...A.19-17 A.39/239 V.38/133 A.14/18/1/165 V.12/31/1/88 A.0 V.0)
(07-AUBURN -7' 35-7...SR: Auburn 20-19-1)
ALABAMA 38 - Kentucky 10—Now that highly-ranked Bama is in the
thick of national title hunt, believe mastermind Saban (unhappy with “lack of
intensity” in 3rd Q vs. Georgia) can prevent major letdown with fast-starting Tide
(outscoring foes 74-0 in 1st Q). Bama owns huge QB edge with polished J.P.
Wilson (63%, 6 TDs, 1 int.), whose ground assault (215 ypg, 13 TDs) will wear
down Kentucky defense. Tide’s stifling run defense has yielded only 1 rush TD
in last 24 Qs! TV—CBS
(DNP...SR: Alabama 33-2-1)
KEY RELEASES
MICHIGAN STATE by 19 over Iowa
CONNECTICUT by 3 over North Carolina
VANDERBILT by 5 over Auburn
ALABAMA by 28 over Kentucky
MICHIGAN STATE 36 - Iowa 17—MSU’s RB Ringer has 681 YR in his
last 3 games and leads the nation in scoring. Meanwhile QB Brian Hoyer
showed improved form at Indiana, throwing for 261 yds. & 2 TDs with no
interceptions. Iowa’s 5-TO performance against Northwestern shows Hawkeye
offense still has problems. QB Ricky Stanzi has 3 ints., just 1 TDP in last 54
passes, and a late-game head injury to star RB Greene clouds the offensive
picture. Iowa on 9-19-1 spread run. TV-ESPN2
(07-IOWA 34-Mich. St. 27 (OT)...M.23-13 I.44/230 M.52/160 M.25/44/0/308 I.5/15/0/53 I.0 M.1)
(07-IOWA +3 34-27 (OT)...SR: Iowa 20-17-2
*Connecticut 27 - NORTH CAROLINA 24—Both teams off uplifting
come-from-behind road wins led by reserve QBs. UConn soph QB Frazer
(Notre Dame transfer) has nation’s leading rusher in jr. Donald Brown (906 YR & 11
TDs), a physical OL featuring two 5th-yr. seniors and a more veteran defense that’s
allowed just 14 ppg. Favor undefeated Huskies energized by confident HC Edsall.
TV-ESPN2 (DNP...SR: N. Carolina 1-0)
*VANDERBILT 22 - Auburn 17—Since Auburn QB Todd (last in SEC
in pass efficiency) struggling in new spread attack (Tigers last in 3rd-down
conversions), willing to “take” with rested, confident Vandy, led by versatile QB
Nickson, who is expected to welcome back previously-injured WR G. Smith (top
returning pass catcher). Doubt Todd or backup Burns will suddenly shine vs.
aggressive, mistake-creating ‘Dore defense (11 sacks; 10 ints.), spearheaded by
marvelous, 2-way performer D. J. Moore (37 YR vs. Rice). TV-ESPN
(07-AUB. 35-Vandy 7...A.19-17 A.39/239 V.38/133 A.14/18/1/165 V.12/31/1/88 A.0 V.0)
(07-AUBURN -7' 35-7...SR: Auburn 20-19-1)
ALABAMA 38 - Kentucky 10—Now that highly-ranked Bama is in the
thick of national title hunt, believe mastermind Saban (unhappy with “lack of
intensity” in 3rd Q vs. Georgia) can prevent major letdown with fast-starting Tide
(outscoring foes 74-0 in 1st Q). Bama owns huge QB edge with polished J.P.
Wilson (63%, 6 TDs, 1 int.), whose ground assault (215 ypg, 13 TDs) will wear
down Kentucky defense. Tide’s stifling run defense has yielded only 1 rush TD
in last 24 Qs! TV—CBS
(DNP...SR: Alabama 33-2-1)
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (10-9-1)...
10/1/2008 (303) LOUISIANA TECH at (304) BOISE ST
It seems that Boise State may be as good as ever, and from early
returns, it would appear that Louisiana Tech is also falling into its usual
patterns of performance. From a historical perspective that means
there could be good value with the Broncos this weekend in the made
for TV Wednesday night special. Boise has had its way with Tech on
the home turf, winning three games by an average of 36.0 PPG. The
only reason they are only 2-1 ATS in those contests is because they’ve
been favored by a whopping 29.8 on average. The Broncos have
scored 55, 55, & 36 points the last three times they’ve hosted LT. With
the Bulldogs allowing 442 YPG and 5.9 YPP, I’d say there is a great
chance Boise scores well above 40 points again. This trend says a lot:
LOUISIANA TECH is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units)
versus good offensive teams - averaging
>=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOUISIANA TECH
12.9, OPPONENT 48.2 - (Rating = 2*).
Don’t be scared of the number here, as
Tech is one of the worst road underdogs in
all of college football, being outscored by a
43.2-11.4 margin in their L14 opportunities
(3-11 ATS).
Play: Boise St -21.5
10/4/2008 (351) MISSOURI at (352)
NEBRASKA
Does the fact that Nebraska was a 7-point
home favorite over Virginia Tech and a
10-1/2 point home dog to Missouri mean
that the Tigers would be favored by almost
20 against the Hokies? Or this simply an
overreaction to last week’s line mistake in
the Cornhuskers’ game? I’d say more of
the latter. Nebraska is still a good team,
and their Outplay Factor number thus
far (+17.6) proves it. Missouri’s is just 2.5
points higher at this point, meaning both
teams are of elite caliber. Therefore, there’s
really no reason for the lofty double-digit pointspread. Let’s not forget
the Tigers’ historical troubles in Lincoln. Since ’92, Nebraska is 8-0 in
this series at home, playing to an average line of -23.2 and winning by
a 38-11 count. HC Gary Pinkel would be happy enough to just walk out
of this game with a win, never mind the pointspread. Nebraska will not
roll over for the Tigers on the home turf. Don’t fall for the overreaction
or Missouri’s stats vs. suspect defenses.
Play: Nebraska +10.5
10/4/2008 (379) BALL ST at (380) TOLEDO
In its first game without fallen WR Dante Love, Ball State barely missed
a beat, turning back Kent State 41-20 on the home turf. The Cardinals
used Love’s absence as a motivating tool for that game. This week’s
contest will be a real test however, as Ball State takes to the road to
face a Toledo team with which they have historically had problems. The
Rockets have consistently been one of the toughest teams in the MAC
when playing at home. They are 19-9 ATS against conference foes
under Tom Amstutz and have taken six of the L7 against Ball State in
Toledo. On top of that, HC Brady Hoke’s team is struggling defensively,
having allowed 400 YPG over their last four. If there is one recipe I
can suggest to stick to, it’s fading struggling defensive teams as road
favorites in environments where they have historically faltered.
Play: Toledo +7
10/4/2008 (385) OKLAHOMA at (386) BAYLOR
Oklahoma has put up some gaudy offensive numbers in the early
going but there are just certain spots on the schedule that are difficult
pointspread wins for even the best teams
in the country. This game in Waco could
be one of those for the Sooners. It is a
sandwich contest between the TCU game
last week and next week’s Red River
Rivalry showdown with Texas. However,
this isn’t just a situational spot. There are
some valid reasons by Baylor should prove
competitive in this game. The Bears are
drastically improved under Art Briles. In
fact, you should probably take all recent
Big 12 trends at this school and throw them
away, they no longer apply. Unlike past
seasons, this Baylor squad is able to both
run and throw on offense and defend the
run well on the other side of the ball. OU’s
defense meanwhile, hasn’t exactly been
dominant since the Week 1 win, allowing
325.3 PPG since. They typically aren’t a
great large favorite either: OKLAHOMA
is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a favorite of
21.5 to 31 points since 1992.The average
score was OKLAHOMA 33.9, OPPONENT
12.4. Don’t expect an outright upset here
but don’t assume this will be the usual
Oklahoma rout either.
Play: Baylor +27
10/4/2008 (393) OREGON at (394) USC
USC lost to an extremely motivated Oregon State team last Thursday
night. That in turn should make the Trojans extremely motivated
themselves for the next several weeks as they try to get back into the
national championship picture. A convincing win over Oregon would be
enough to get the pollsters to forget about the defeat and start the push
back to the top. There is one specific trend I like to point to when USC
welcomes any upper level team to L.A.: Pete Carroll is 11-3 ATS (+7.7
Units) in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+
PPG on the season as the coach of USC. The average score was USC
37.6, OPPONENT 16.6 - (Rating = 1*). I learned my lesson betting
against this team when it is motivated. I’ll back them here.
Play: USC -16.5
10/1/2008 (303) LOUISIANA TECH at (304) BOISE ST
It seems that Boise State may be as good as ever, and from early
returns, it would appear that Louisiana Tech is also falling into its usual
patterns of performance. From a historical perspective that means
there could be good value with the Broncos this weekend in the made
for TV Wednesday night special. Boise has had its way with Tech on
the home turf, winning three games by an average of 36.0 PPG. The
only reason they are only 2-1 ATS in those contests is because they’ve
been favored by a whopping 29.8 on average. The Broncos have
scored 55, 55, & 36 points the last three times they’ve hosted LT. With
the Bulldogs allowing 442 YPG and 5.9 YPP, I’d say there is a great
chance Boise scores well above 40 points again. This trend says a lot:
LOUISIANA TECH is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units)
versus good offensive teams - averaging
>=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOUISIANA TECH
12.9, OPPONENT 48.2 - (Rating = 2*).
Don’t be scared of the number here, as
Tech is one of the worst road underdogs in
all of college football, being outscored by a
43.2-11.4 margin in their L14 opportunities
(3-11 ATS).
Play: Boise St -21.5
10/4/2008 (351) MISSOURI at (352)
NEBRASKA
Does the fact that Nebraska was a 7-point
home favorite over Virginia Tech and a
10-1/2 point home dog to Missouri mean
that the Tigers would be favored by almost
20 against the Hokies? Or this simply an
overreaction to last week’s line mistake in
the Cornhuskers’ game? I’d say more of
the latter. Nebraska is still a good team,
and their Outplay Factor number thus
far (+17.6) proves it. Missouri’s is just 2.5
points higher at this point, meaning both
teams are of elite caliber. Therefore, there’s
really no reason for the lofty double-digit pointspread. Let’s not forget
the Tigers’ historical troubles in Lincoln. Since ’92, Nebraska is 8-0 in
this series at home, playing to an average line of -23.2 and winning by
a 38-11 count. HC Gary Pinkel would be happy enough to just walk out
of this game with a win, never mind the pointspread. Nebraska will not
roll over for the Tigers on the home turf. Don’t fall for the overreaction
or Missouri’s stats vs. suspect defenses.
Play: Nebraska +10.5
10/4/2008 (379) BALL ST at (380) TOLEDO
In its first game without fallen WR Dante Love, Ball State barely missed
a beat, turning back Kent State 41-20 on the home turf. The Cardinals
used Love’s absence as a motivating tool for that game. This week’s
contest will be a real test however, as Ball State takes to the road to
face a Toledo team with which they have historically had problems. The
Rockets have consistently been one of the toughest teams in the MAC
when playing at home. They are 19-9 ATS against conference foes
under Tom Amstutz and have taken six of the L7 against Ball State in
Toledo. On top of that, HC Brady Hoke’s team is struggling defensively,
having allowed 400 YPG over their last four. If there is one recipe I
can suggest to stick to, it’s fading struggling defensive teams as road
favorites in environments where they have historically faltered.
Play: Toledo +7
10/4/2008 (385) OKLAHOMA at (386) BAYLOR
Oklahoma has put up some gaudy offensive numbers in the early
going but there are just certain spots on the schedule that are difficult
pointspread wins for even the best teams
in the country. This game in Waco could
be one of those for the Sooners. It is a
sandwich contest between the TCU game
last week and next week’s Red River
Rivalry showdown with Texas. However,
this isn’t just a situational spot. There are
some valid reasons by Baylor should prove
competitive in this game. The Bears are
drastically improved under Art Briles. In
fact, you should probably take all recent
Big 12 trends at this school and throw them
away, they no longer apply. Unlike past
seasons, this Baylor squad is able to both
run and throw on offense and defend the
run well on the other side of the ball. OU’s
defense meanwhile, hasn’t exactly been
dominant since the Week 1 win, allowing
325.3 PPG since. They typically aren’t a
great large favorite either: OKLAHOMA
is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a favorite of
21.5 to 31 points since 1992.The average
score was OKLAHOMA 33.9, OPPONENT
12.4. Don’t expect an outright upset here
but don’t assume this will be the usual
Oklahoma rout either.
Play: Baylor +27
10/4/2008 (393) OREGON at (394) USC
USC lost to an extremely motivated Oregon State team last Thursday
night. That in turn should make the Trojans extremely motivated
themselves for the next several weeks as they try to get back into the
national championship picture. A convincing win over Oregon would be
enough to get the pollsters to forget about the defeat and start the push
back to the top. There is one specific trend I like to point to when USC
welcomes any upper level team to L.A.: Pete Carroll is 11-3 ATS (+7.7
Units) in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+
PPG on the season as the coach of USC. The average score was USC
37.6, OPPONENT 16.6 - (Rating = 1*). I learned my lesson betting
against this team when it is motivated. I’ll back them here.
Play: USC -16.5
