THANK YOU CORK FOR SPLITTING WITH ME THIS IS AL DEMARCOS PLAYS
Saturday's Plays
15 dime play on Nevada as a big home favorite againet Utah State. As I release this selectnion at 6:00 PM Pacific on Friday, the Wolfpack are laying around 26 in Las Vegas and offshore.
5 dime play on South Carolina minus the points at home versus Tennessee. The Gamecocks are laying 17 1/2 everywhere I check.
5 dime play on Georgia as a 2 1/2 point chalk against Florida. If this line moves to -3 or even up to -4, make sure you buy down the hook on the 'Dawgs. At 2 1/2, however, there is no need to purchase the insurance.
5 dime play on Hawaii at home versss Idaho. The host Rainbows are currently a -15 point favorite in Las Vegas and offshore.
ANALYSIS BELOW FOR EACH GAME
Nevada has been awfully good to me this season and I think this is the
perfect time to get right back on the Wolfpack's back following a bye week that
was preceded by a 27-21 road loss to Hawaii that kicked them out of the national
polls. Now they're back home where they've averaged 46.75 points this season and
are 21-5 laying points during Chris Ault's reign since 2004.
Today's opponent, Utah State, is coming off a crushing loss at home to,
ironically enough, Hawaii. I used the Rainbows as a 5 dimer last Saturday in
that contest and they rolled 45-7 with a 605-yard day. That same Aggies defense
must now try to stop Nevada's Pistol attack, one that put 52 on the board
against the Pac-10's California earlier this season. Quarterback Colin
Kaeperneck is averaging 211 yards passing on 68% completions in addition to
rushing for 669 yards. Running back Vai Taua has gained 928 yards (6.9 ypc) to
power the nation's No. 6 ground game.
Utah State surrendered 45 to Hawaii, 41 at San Diego State, 41 to visiting
Fresno and 24 at struggling La Tech in losing four of its last five games with
the only victory in the past month coming at home against a downtrodden BYU
program. The Aggies defense is ranked 99th in the nation for good reason.
The home team has covered five straight in the series.
Great spot to hope on South Carolina since the Gamecocks are coming at home
seeking revenge for a turnover-plagued (4 committed) 31-13 loss at Knoxville
last season. They're coming off a 21-7 victory over Vandy which was impressive
everywhere but on the scoreboard. Quarterback Stephen Garcia continued his
strong season with a 31-for-39 performance for 355 yards and 2 scoree; the
defense held Vandy to 260 total yards; back-up running back Brian Maddux,
playing in place of the injured Marcus Lattimore (who is expected back today),
ran for 146.
Tennessee enters with the SEC's worst defense with an average yield of 403
yards per game. Its pass rush has generanted only seven sacks on the season.
No surprise the Vols are 1-5 versus Division 1-A teams this year with the only
victory coming in double-overtime against UAB. They've allowed at least 29 in
five games this season including 41 in their most recent losses to Georgia
(road) and Alabama (home).
The home team has won and covered three straight in this series. A big
number, but a big blowout from a South Carolina team that's already downed
Georgia and Alabama at home is expected against a Tennessee club that's 1-4 ATS
as a double-digit dog this season.
Great opportunity for a surging Georgia team, winners of three in a row, to
beat a slumping Florida squad that's lost three in a row and has struggled
offensively all season. This is the first time the 'Dawgs have been favored in
this matchup since 2004. No surprise considering the Gators, who have averaged
14 points in losing their last three to Alabama, LSU and Miss State, have won 17
of the last 20 meetings. But this year Georgia arrives with a defense that's
tough against the run (SEC-low 99 ypg, 2.9 ypc) and opportunistic (15 takeaways
vs. 12 all of last season). And its defense, led by quarterback Aaron Murray
(63% completions, 12 TDs, 3 INTs) and wide receiver A.J. Green is rolling with
113 points scored in consecutive wins against Tennessee, Vandy and Kentucky.
They're success has opened lanes for the ground game and that's the key today as
a victory officially gets coach Mark Richt off the hotseat in Athens.
Backed Hawaii as a 5 dimer last Saturday at Utah State; the Rainbows rolled
45-7 while accumulating 605 yards total offense. Now they're back home where
they upset then-ranked and undefeated Nevada two weeks ago. Sure, they could get
caught looking ahead to next week's showdswn against unbeaten Boise State,
but they have added motivation today as revenge is sought against an Idaho squad
that beat them 35-23 last year on the mainland. And Hawaii is already 3-0 in
revenge games this season. Plus the 'Bows have won the last three at home in
this series by margins of 32, 58 and 31 points.
Hawaii has won five in a row overall, seven straight in the WAC and carries
a 6-1 ATS mark into the contest thanks to an offense led by quarterback Bryant
Moniz (65% completions, 2,921 yards, 22 TDs), and running back Alex Green
(season-high 172 yards and 4 TDs on 14 carries at Utah State last week).
Idaho is 1-3 SU on the road this year and 1-6 ATS in its last seven visits
to the islands with an average loss of 32 points a game.
This is a cheap price for Hawaii as clearly the oddsmakers want to you
think they'll be caught looking ahead to Boise. Fact is, however, you can't stop
this Rainbow offense and a team with this much momentum can win by three TDs
tonight.