Dr. Bob :
Subject: College Football Analysis
Sent: 10/23/2014 2:12:30 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time
Subj: College Football Analysis
I have no released 11 Best Bets and may have 1 or 2 more totals to release tomorrow. It seems to have helped to give a bit of a heads up on a release time frame and I'll experiment with having shorter time frames so you don't have to sit and wait for releases to come. However, I am concerned that a shorter time period for releases will put the books on notice and allow them to be on top of it - although that may not be a factor at all.
Best Bets Releases so far
(107) ***Miami-Florida (-2) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars up to -7 (Thursday game)
(114) *Boise State (-6 ½) 1-Star at -7 or less (Friday game)
(118) *Auburn (-19) 1-Star at -20 or less
(129) **Central Michigan (-4 ½) 2-Stars at -6 or less, 1-Star at -6 ½
(138) **Virginia (-6 ½) 2-Stars at -7 or less only
(160) ***TCU (-21) 3-Stars at -21 or less, 2-Stars up to -23, 1-Star up to -24
(163-164) **UNDER (44): Oregon State at Stanford 2-Stars UNDER 42 or higher, 1-Star down to 41 points.
(174) *Washington State (+2 ½) 1-Star at +1 or more, 2-Stars at +3
(173-174) *OVER (71 ½) 1-Star OVER 73 or less
(176) *Utah (+1) 1-Star at -1 or better
(191) ***West Virginia (+2 ½) 3-Stars at -1 or better, 2-Stars up to -2 ½, 1-Star at -3
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob
Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
***Miami-Florida (-2) 28 VIRGINIA TECH 15
Thu Oct-23-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 107 Over/Under 49.0
Both of these teams are 3-3 against FBS competition with an added victory over an FCS team and the losses by each team are reasonable losses - Miami lost at Louisville, at Nebraska, and at Georgia Tech while Virginia Tech lost at home to East Carolina and Georgia Tech and at Pitt last week. However, I think there is a significant gap in the quality of these teams. In Miami’s 6 games against FBS competition the Hurricanes have averaged 433 yards at 7.3 yards per play while allowing 373 yards at just 4.9 yppl while facing a schedule that is 6.0 points better than average. Virginia Tech, meanwhile has averaged just 378 yards at 4.9 yppl on offense while allowing 356 yards at 5.6 yppl to 6 FBS opponents that are a combined 6.8 points better than average The Hurricanes’ impressive +2.4 yards per play differential in those games is offset somewhat by their -16.5 play differential while the Hokie’s -0.7 yppl differential is offset by their +14.3 play differential. Despite the enormous difference in play differential between thse teams (30.8 in favor of Virginia Tech), the Hurricanes still have a better total yardage differential (+60 to +22) and it’s unlikely that the Hokies will run 31 more plays than Miami in this game. But, if they do it’s still likely that Miami will outgain them and win this game. Overall the Hurricanes have a line of scrimmage rating (a rating that takes yards and yards per play into account and adjusts for schedule strength) that is 8.7 points better than Virginia Tech’s line of scrimmage rating and the Hurricanes are also better much better in special teams and in projected turnovers.
The big advantage for Miami is when Virginia Tech has the ball, as the Hokies’ offense has been 0.8 yards per play worse than average (4.9 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack) while Miami’s defense has been 1.1 yppl better than average, allowing just 4.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team. My math model projects Virginia Tech to average just 4.0 yppl in this game.
Miami also has an advantage when they have the ball, as the Hurricanes have averaged 7.3 yards per play with their big play attack. The big plays is why Miami doesn’t run a lot of plays on offense, but freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya is completing 63% of his passes and the rushing attack is very good (6.4 yards per rushing play) so the Hurricanes are certainly capable of putting a drive together if they don’t get a big play. However, Virginia Tech’s defense is a lot of man-to-man press coverage, which limits completions (46% allowed) but gives up the long pass (14.9 yards per completion is well above the national average of 12.0 ypc). That would seem to work just find for a Miami pass attack that averages 14.1 yards per catch with Kaaya in the game and Kaaya is getting better and better with experience after starting the season without much preseason reps with the first team offense (he was the 3rd string quarterback but was forced into duty). The coaching staff eased Kaaya into the playbook with mostly conservative plays the first two games but he’s completed 65.1% of his passes while averaging 15.0 yards per completion in the Hurricane’s last 5 games as the coaching staff has opened up the playbook and trusted him to throw the ball down the field. Virginia Tech puts a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks (4.0 sacks per game) but Miami is better than average in pass protection (1.8 sacks allowed to teams that combine to average 2.5 sacks per game) and Kaaya and big play receiver Phillip Dorsett (550 yards at 34.4 yards per catch!!) should be able to hit on a couple of big plays against the Hokie’s press coverage. Kaaya is projected to average a modest 6.3 yards per pass play in this game but the Hurricanes are projected to average 6.6 yards per rushing play against a mediocre Virginia Tech run defense that’s allowed 5.7 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.5 yprp against an average defensive team). Miami’s top two rushers, Duke Johnson and Joseph Yearby, both average over 7 yards per run so it’s not a stretch to project 6.6 yprp for the ‘Canes in this game.
Overall, the math gives Miami at very profitable 58.9% chance of covering and that percentage is enhanced by a 111-41-1 ATS statistical match up indicator that is based on the Hurricanes huge projected edge in yards per run. I’ll take Miami in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less, for 2-Stars at -3 ½ or -4 points and for 1-Star up to -6 points.
***West Virginia (+2 ½) 42 OKLAHOMA STATE 30
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 191 Over/Under 65.0
I was hoping that Oklahoma State wouldn’t get blown out by TCU last week because I was eyeing a bet on this game and wanted the best line value possible. I was shocked when I saw the opening line of Oklahoma State by 3 points and West Virginia is still a great bet even though the line has dropped. Both teams are 5-2 with both losses coming against good teams (West Virginia lost to Alabama and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State lost to Florida State and TCU) but the quality of West Virginia’s losses are better and the Mountaineers also have more impressive wins, most notably last week’s 41-27 win over #4 Baylor. West Virginia has played a schedule of 6 FBS teams that are collectively 10.0 points better than average while the 6 FBS teams that Oklahoma State has faced are a combined 2.6 points better than average. Despite that big gap in schedule strength West Virginia has outgained their FBS opponents by an average of 105 total yards and 0.5 yards per play while Oklahoma State has been outgained by their lesser schedule of FBS opponents by an average of 40 total yards while averaging 5.4 yppl and allowing 5.6 yppl. West Virginia has significantly better raw statistics despite facing a schedule that is 7.4 points tougher.
Oklahoma State has just 1 game rating (a number that takes game statistics, the opponent and site into account), the Cowboys’ 43-13 win over UTSA, that is good enough to beat West Virginia’s average game rating while the Mountaineers’ worst game rating, a 3 point win at Texas Tech, is 4 points better than Oklahoma State’s average game rating. It would take West Virginia’s worst game and Oklahoma State’s best game for us not to win this bet and my math model give the Mountaineers a very strong 61.6% chance of covering based on the historical performance of my model. I would have considered making this a 4-Star Best Bet if not for the possible letdown associated with last week’s upset win over Baylor but I think West Virginia players and coaches expected to win that game and I wasn’t surprised at all by that result. So, I think the chance of a letdown may not be as high as normal and West Virginia is likely to win this game even if they do letdown a bit. I’ll take West Virginia in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better, for 2-Stars up to -2 ½ points and for 1-Star at -3. I will also consider the Over (63) a Strong Opinion at 65 points or less.
***TCU (-21) 53 Texas Tech 23
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 160 Over/Under 70.5
TCU has split two close games against very good teams Oklahoma (won by 4) and Baylor (lost by 3) and the Horned Frogs have won by 23 points or more in every other game, including against better than average teams Minnesota and Oklahoma State, who they beat 42-9 last week. This should be another blowout win, as Texas Tech is an average team at best that has really only played one good game (a 3 point home loss to West Virginia). The Red Raiders do have a better than average offense from a yards per play perspective (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) but quarterback Davis Webb throws too many interceptions (12 in 7 games this season) and a 3.1% career interception rate is simply too high for an offense that throws the ball nearly 50 times per game. Overall the Texas Tech attack is just average and is likely to slowed by a good TCU defense that’s held their opponents to just 4.7 yards per play (those teams would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense) and has given up an average of only 20.7 points despite giving up 61 in one game. With both teams running an up tempo offense Texas Tech should produce a better than average yardage figure (I project 432 yards) but they are expected to average only 5.2 yards per play while throwing 2.4 interceptions against a ball-hawking TCU secondary that has intercepted over 5% of their opponents passes this season.
TCU’s offense averages is a nice balance of run (215 yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play) and pass (330 yards at 7.1 yards per pass play) and the Horned Frogs have averaged 45.2 points per game and 6.6 yards per play despite facing a better than average schedule of opposing defenses that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack. Texas Tech’s defense is 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl) and 0.4 yppl worse than the average defense that TCU has faced. Not only will TCU be facing a defense worse than they’ve faced on average but the Horned Frogs are likely to have more possessions than normal with both teams running their attacks at a fast pace. The math works out to 637 total yards at 7.1 yards per play, which should put TCU in the 50 point range.
Overall the math model shows plenty of value in favor of TCU and gives the Horned Frogs a 55.6% chance of covering based solely on the math. However, TCU also applies to a 57-9-1 ATS subset of a 160-74-6 ATS situation that is based on last week’s great defensive performance (allowed just 9 points to Oklahoma State) and the Horned Frogs also apply to a 120-55-4 ATS situation that is based on scoring 40 points or more in each of their last 2 games. Those angles don’t overlap that often but the record is 5-1 ATS when they do and TCU also applies to a 36-5 ATS revenge situation that plays on home favorites of 21 points or more. TCU should get their revenge in a big way today as they blowout another mediocre team. I’ll take TCU in a 3-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -23 points and 1-Star up to -24.
**VIRGINIA (-6 ½) 40 North Carolina 26
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 138 Over/Under 65.5
I lost my 1-Star Best Bet on Virginia +3 at Duke last week (13-20 final score) but the Cavaliers actually played better than expected with 465 total yards at 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing just 334 yards at 4.9 yppl to the Blue Devils. That undeserved loss did serve to keep the line on this game lower than it should be and it appears that the Cavaliers are still an underrated team (5-2 ATS with their other spread loss being by just 1 point). North Carolina, meanwhile, snapped a 4 game losing streak with a 48-43 home win over Georgia Tech in a game in which the Tarheels were outgained 579 yards at 6.6 yppl to 611 yards at 8.9 yppl. North Carolina’s defense is so bad that the 43 points they allowed last week actually slightly lowered their points per game allowed average. North Carolina has allowed 43.3 points per game on 524 yards at 6.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average stop unit. Virginia is nothing special offensively, rating at 0.1 yppl better than average with Matt Johns at quarterback but they are projected rack up 538 yards at 6.5 yppl at home against that bad UNC defense. Virginia has only faced two other bad defensive teams (Kent State and Richmond) and the Cavaliers scored 45 points in both of those games and should tally around 40 points today.
Virginia’s strength is in a defensive unit that has been consistently good all season and rates at 0.7 yards per play better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team). The Cavaliers’ defense has allowed more than 21 points only once all season (not including the 28 that UCLA scored since 21 of those were scored by the Bruins’ defense) and the 41 points that BYU scored is misleading given that the Cavs only gave up 335 total yards in that game. North Carolina does have a better than average offense (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and the Tarheels rate at 0.4 yppl better than average offensively with Marquise Williams at quarterback (he’s no longer splitting snaps with Trubinsky), but that attack is not as good as the Virginia defense and my math model projects only 5.2 yppl for UNC in this game (although they are expected to run a lot of plays and tally 391 total yards).
Virginia has a significant advantage from the line of scrimmage but North Carolina does have a 2 point edge in special teams. However, overall the math favors Virginia by 12 points and North Carolina’s high scoring close win last week sets up the Tarheels in a very negative 97-129-5 ATS road letdown situation today. I’ll take Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (Strong Opinion if the line goes to 7 ½ or higher).
**Central Michigan (-4 ½) 35 BUFFALO 22
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 129 Over/Under 57.5
Both of these teams are coming off upset losses but Central Michigan is more likely to bounce back thanks to the far superior defense. The offense units of these teams are pretty close, as Buffalo has averaged 6.0 yards per play with their starters in the game while facing teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team while the Chippewas rate at 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively with RB Thomas Rawls (1007 yards at 5.4 ypr despite missing two games) and star WR Titus Davis (40 catches and 491 yards in just 4 full games) both playing.
While Central Michigan is 0.2 yppl better than Buffalo offensively the Chippewas really separate themselves from the Bulls on defense. Central Michigan is a solid defensive team even by national standards, as the Chippewas have yielded just 5.2 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. Buffalo, meanwhile, has given up an average of 7.4 yppl in their 5 games against FBS teams and that number is still 6.7 yppl allowed if I include their two games against FCS teams Duquesne and Norfolk State. That 6.7 yppl was allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yppl against an average FBS defense. Buffalo has allowed 6.2 yppl or more in all 5 games against FBS competition despite facing only one better than average offensive team (Baylor) until today. Buffalo can’t stop the run (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp against an average team) and the Bulls are even worse defending the pass, allowing 8.3 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.3 yppp against an average team. A well balanced offense like Central Michigan should have no trouble moving the ball and my math model projects 439 yards at 7.6 yards per play for the Chippewas in this game and only 374 yards at 5.3 yppl for Buffalo. The yardage is closer than the yards per play because Buffalo gives up a lot of big plays, which require opponents fewer plays to score. Central Michigan has a 55.3% chance to cover based solely on the historical performance of my math model and the chances of covering are enhanced by a 76-17-1 ATS statistical match up indicator. I’ll take Central Michigan in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 1-Star up to -7 points.
**UNDER (44) – STANFORD (-13) 21 Oregon State 13
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 163 Over/Under 44.0
Both of these teams are much better defensively than they are offensively and that has led to some low scoring games. Every one of Stanford’s games has gone Under the total with an average of just 36.3 points total points and Oregon State has gone Under in 4 of their 6 games with a below average 48.3 total points per game in regulation (54.6 is average). If Oregon State’s games only average 48.3 total points, which is 6.3 points lower than average, and Stanford’s games average 18.3 total points lower than the national average then it seems pretty likely this game will total fewer than 40 points. Of course, points are variable, which is why I don’t use points in my model. So, let’s take a look at the match up from a yardage perspective.
Oregon State was a very good offensive team last season but the absence of All-American WR Brandin Cooks (128 receptions for 1730 yards last season) has had a major impact on veteran quarterback Sean Mannion, who is averaging just 6.1 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback). The Beavers have a better than average rushing attack and overall the offense is just 0.2 yards per play better than average (5.7 yppl with Mannion in the game against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack). However, a slightly better than average offense has very little chance of success against a dominating Stanford defense that’s yielded just 14.3 points and 280 yards per game at a miniscule 4.0 yards per play in 6 games against FBS teams. The Cardinal has posted those numbers against FBS teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team, which is 0.2 yppl better than Oregon State’s offense, which also runs their attack at a slower pace the Stanford’s opponents have. Oregon State has only faced two better than average defensive teams (USC and Utah) and the Beavers averaged 13 points (in regulation) and just 4.1 yppl in those two games. USC and Utah would combine to allow 4.7 yppl to an average team, which is 1.0 yppl worse than Stanford’s defense. Only good offensive teams Notre Dame, Washington State, and Arizona State have managed to score more than 13 points against the Cardinal an my math model projects just 237 total yards at 3.6 yppl and 11.8 points for Oregon State, which is certainly a reasonable projection based on the analysis I just presented.
While Oregon State’s offense has regressed without Cooks, the Beavers’ defense has bounced back to their normal standards after a down season in 2013. This year’s Beavers have yielded just 22.2 points (in regulation) and 4.7 yards per play to a collection of teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team and that unit has an advantage over a struggling Stanford attack that has averaged only 20.5 points and a mediocre 5.6 yppl in 6 games against FBS teams that rate as average defensively (5.6 yppl allowed to an average team). Stanford should be scoring more points than they have based on their stats and that is reflected in my model’s projection of 21.9 points on 320 yards at 5.4 yppl in this game. That projection also seems reasonable given that Oregon State has allowed just 22 points per game and Stanford has scored just 20.5 points per game against FBS teams.
Overall the math favors Stanford by just 10 points with a total of just 33.7 points and Oregon State applies to a 77-32-2 ATS situation that is based on the losses by both of these teams last week. I’ll certainly favor Oregon State plus the points but the better play is on the Under, as it’s unlikely that Oregon State would score more than 13 or 14 points and I certainly don’t see Stanford scoring around 30 points unless they get a special teams or defensive touchdown. I’ll go UNDER in a 2-Star Best Bet at 42 points or higher and for 1-Star down to 41 points.
*BOISE STATE (-6 ½) 35 Brigham Young 21
Fri Oct-24-2014 at 06:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 114 Over/Under 58.0
My math model would favor Boise State by 7 points in this game based on BYU’s season statistics but the Cougars are not nearly as good without injured star quarterback Taysom Hill, who ran for 532 yards at 7.3 yards per rushing play in less than 4 ½ games before getting hurt in the first half of their home loss to Utah State. Cougars’ backup Christian Stewart has struggled in the passing game, averaging just 4.7 yards per pass play while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Stewart is a decent runner (157 yards at 5.8 yprp) but is still a significant downgrade from Hill’s rushing numbers. BYU’s offense is now only 0.2 yards per play better than average for the season and the Cougars have been 0.6 yppl worse than average with Stewart at the controls. That does not bode well for that unit against a solid Boise State defense (0.1 yppl better than average) and the math projects BYU to average just 4.7 yards per play in this game.
The strength of BYU is now their defense but that unit is not actually that good, as the 4.9 yards per play the Cougars have allowed have come against teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against and average team. Boise State’s balanced attack (213 rushing yards and 276 passing yards per game) is 0.6 yppl better than average with starting quarterback Grant Hedrick in the game (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and the Broncos are projected to rack up 502 yards at 6.0 yppl in this game. BYU was overrated before Hill got injured and the Cougars are still overrated despite 5 consecutive pointspread losses. The math model gives Boise State a 56.5% chance of covering at -6 ½ points and a 54.3% chance at -7, based on the historical performance of my model, and that’s assuming a standard home field advantage. However, the Broncos have a long history of playing better on their blue turf, as they are 60% ATS all time at home - including 20-3 ATS in home games when not favored by more than 12 points. In other words the Broncos tend to play well against other good teams at home and this year’s squad is 2-1 ATS at home with a 13 point home win as an 8 point favorite against a good Colorado State team. I’ll take Boise State in a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
*WASHINGTON STATE (+2 ½) 43 Arizona 37
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 02:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 174 Over/Under 71.5
*OVER (71 ½)
Arizona is ranked at 5-1 while Washington State is 2-5 straight up. You might think by looking at those records that Arizona should be favored by more than 2 ½ points and the odds makers are begging you to take Arizona by setting the line at -2 ½ points. The fact is that Washington State and Arizona are pretty equal teams and the Cougars should be favored in this game. Arizona has only one impressive win, a 31-24 upset at Oregon (and I suppose you can count a 58-13 win over UNLV), but Arizona’s other wins have been just 3 points against UTSA, by 7 points against Nevada, and a home win over Cal on a Hail Mary pass on the final play of the game. Arizona is a better than average team, but not by much. The Wildcats have been 0.5 yards per play better than average offensively this season (6.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) but they’ve also been 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively, allowing 6.0 yppl to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive unit. Arizona’s worst defensive game was against a Cal team whose head coach Sonny Dykes learned his offensive system from Washington State’s head coach Mike Leach and I’m sure Leach used his bye week to dissect the footage of how his pupil lit up the Wildcats for 578 yards at 8.1 yards per play.
Leach’s team is averaging 35 points per game on 525 total yards at 6.4 yards per play (against teams that would allow just 5.3 yppl to an average attack) and the Cougars, who throw the ball 80% of the time, match up well against an Arizona defense that doesn’t defend the pass well (7.2 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.5 yppp against an average team). The 3 other bad pass defenses WSU has faced this season have been Rutgers, Portland State, and Cal and the Cougars averaged 52 points in those 3 games. The average pass defense ratings of Rutgers, Portland State, and Cal is only 0.2 yppp worse than Arizona’s pass defense rating and Washington State is projected to rack up 607 total yards at 7.4 yppl in this game in part due to the favorable match up. The Cougars should have no problem topping their 35 point average against a defense that is 1.0 yards per pass play worse defending the pass than the average rating of the defenses that the Cougars have faced so far this season.
Arizona’s offense will move the ball too, as their efficient offense (+0.6 yppl) is projected to gain 565 yards at 6.5 yppl against a sub-par Washington State defense that is 0.5 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team). While overall I rate these teams evenly, the math projects Washington State to win by 6 points (more than the standard 3.5 points home field advantage) because of the favorable match up of the Cougars’ pass-heavy attack against an Arizona defense that has trouble defending the pass. It also doesn’t hurt that Arizona is coming off their first loss of the season after starting out 5-0, as teams that start the season at 5-0 or better are just 47-73-1 ATS the game after suffering their first loss of the season. I’ll take Washington State in a 1-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 2-Stars if the line goes up to +3 or more.
The math also project a lot of total points in this game, as both teams run their offense at a higher than normal pace and both attacks are expected to move the ball well. Washington State’s games have averaged 70.0 total points and today they face a team with a defense that is 0.6 yards per play worse than the average defense that Washington State has faced and they face an offense that is 0.5 yppl better than the average offensive rating of the teams the Cougars have faced. This game is also expected to have considerably more total plays than the 154 plays that Washington State’s games have averaged (excluding kneel downs and spiked passes) since Arizona also runs their offense at a brisk pace. I’ll go OVER 73 points or less in a 1-Star Best Bet.
*AUBURN (-19) 46 South Carolina 20
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 118 Over/Under 65.0
Last season Auburn suffered a loss at LSU and then had a bye week to get over it and didn’t lose again until the National Championship game against Florida State. Auburn players say that last year’s loss bonded the team tighter and feel the same thing will happen this season starting with today’s game against South Carolina. Auburn really doesn’t need to play any better than they have this season to whip a defensively porous Gamecocks squad that doesn’t have a chance to stop the Tigers from moving the ball with relative ease. South Carolina’s defense wasn’t that good last season with two great players in Jadeveon Clowney and Kelcy Quarles and this year’s defense, with no impact players, has allowed an average of 35 points and 444 yards per game at 6.5 yards per play against FBS competition that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team. The Gamecocks have been particularly poor defending the run, allowing 6.2 yards per rushing play, and that does not bode well for them today against an Auburn attack that averages 268 ground yards per game at 5.9 yprp (against teams that would allow just 4.5 yprp to an average team). Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall isn’t as good of a passer as backup Jeremy Johnson is but Marshall is still 1.5 yards per pass play better than average (6.9 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback). Auburn has averaged 39 points per game against a tough slate of opposing defensive units that rate at 0.5 yppl better than average and today they’ll face a South Carolina stop unit that’s been 0.4 yppl worse than average. South Carolina is actually the worst defensive team that Auburn has faced so far this season and the Tigers, who have scored 41 points or more in 4 of 6 games, should score between 42 and 50 points in this game.
Auburn actually isn’t as good offensively this season as they were a year ago but the Tigers are much better defensively, as this year’s defense has been 1.2 yards per play better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team). The 38 points that Auburn gave up to Mississippi State two weeks ago was the only time they’ve allowed more than 21 points, which is impressive given that Arkansas, Kansas State, and LSU are all good offensive teams. The Tigers actually played at their normal very good level in that loss to Mississippi State, as they allowed 6.1 yppl to a Bulldogs’ attack that would average 7.3 yppl at home against an average team with Dak Prescott at quarterback for the entire game. South Carolina’s offense certainly presents another challenge, as the Gamecocks are 0.8 yppl better than average offensively (6.0 yppl against 6 FBS teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) but Auburn’s defense is 0.4 yppl better and the math model projects a modest 332 yards at 5.0 yppl for the Gamecocks in this game, which projects to about 21 points.
The line on this game seems high to most because the thought of South Carolina getting close to 20 points seems odd since the Gamecocks have been so consistently good in recent years. However, Steve Spurrier’s squad is only 0.4 yards per play better than an average FBS team and they’ll struggle to win more than 6 games. I’ve already cashed my 2-Star season win total play on Under 9.5 wins and I’ll look to make some more profit going against a Gamecocks’ squad that is still overrated despite being just 1-6 ATS this season. I’ll take Auburn in a 1-Star Best Bet at -20 points or less and for 2-Stars at -17 points or less.
*UTAH (+1) 30 Usc 23
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 07:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 176 Over/Under 56.0
Utah is 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS with their only loss by just 1 point yet the Utes still aren’t getting enough respect based on the line on this game. Utah is every bit as good as USC is from a yards per play perspective and the Utes have the best special teams in the nation and that field position should make the difference in this game. These teams are pretty evenly matched from the line of scrimmage, as USC has been 1.1 yards per play better than average overall (+0.6 yppl on offense and +0.5 yppl on defense) while Utah is also 1.1 yppl better than average, rating at 0.1 yppl better than average offensively and 1.0 yppl better than average defensively.
Both teams have a 0.4 yppl advantage with their defense over the other team’s offense and field position tends to matter more in defensive games. That’s where Utah’s superior special teams will make the difference. Utah has a nation’s best +10.5 yards net punt differential, as the Utes average net punt is 44.3 yards while their opponents average a 33.8 yards net punt thanks to punt returner Kaelin Clay, who already has returned 3 punt return touchdown. Clay also has returned a kickoff for a touchdown and Utah also has an average starting yard line of 30.5 on kickoffs while their opponents’ average starting yard line is 24.6. USC, meanwhile, is below average in both net punt differential (34.5 to 34.9) and in kickoff yard line differential (26.0 to 27.8) and all those yards of field position on punts and kickoffs add up. Utah also has the best field goal kicker rating in the nation, as Andy Phillips has added 2.0 points per game over an average kicker with his 9 for 11 on field goals of more than 40 yards (he’s perfect inside of 40 yards). Utah is a better overall team than USC and I’ll take Utah in a 1-Star Best Bet at -1 or better (Strong Opinion from -1 ½ to -2 ½ points).
Subject: College Football Analysis
Sent: 10/23/2014 2:12:30 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time
Subj: College Football Analysis
I have no released 11 Best Bets and may have 1 or 2 more totals to release tomorrow. It seems to have helped to give a bit of a heads up on a release time frame and I'll experiment with having shorter time frames so you don't have to sit and wait for releases to come. However, I am concerned that a shorter time period for releases will put the books on notice and allow them to be on top of it - although that may not be a factor at all.
Best Bets Releases so far
(107) ***Miami-Florida (-2) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars up to -7 (Thursday game)
(114) *Boise State (-6 ½) 1-Star at -7 or less (Friday game)
(118) *Auburn (-19) 1-Star at -20 or less
(129) **Central Michigan (-4 ½) 2-Stars at -6 or less, 1-Star at -6 ½
(138) **Virginia (-6 ½) 2-Stars at -7 or less only
(160) ***TCU (-21) 3-Stars at -21 or less, 2-Stars up to -23, 1-Star up to -24
(163-164) **UNDER (44): Oregon State at Stanford 2-Stars UNDER 42 or higher, 1-Star down to 41 points.
(174) *Washington State (+2 ½) 1-Star at +1 or more, 2-Stars at +3
(173-174) *OVER (71 ½) 1-Star OVER 73 or less
(176) *Utah (+1) 1-Star at -1 or better
(191) ***West Virginia (+2 ½) 3-Stars at -1 or better, 2-Stars up to -2 ½, 1-Star at -3
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob
Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
***Miami-Florida (-2) 28 VIRGINIA TECH 15
Thu Oct-23-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 107 Over/Under 49.0
Both of these teams are 3-3 against FBS competition with an added victory over an FCS team and the losses by each team are reasonable losses - Miami lost at Louisville, at Nebraska, and at Georgia Tech while Virginia Tech lost at home to East Carolina and Georgia Tech and at Pitt last week. However, I think there is a significant gap in the quality of these teams. In Miami’s 6 games against FBS competition the Hurricanes have averaged 433 yards at 7.3 yards per play while allowing 373 yards at just 4.9 yppl while facing a schedule that is 6.0 points better than average. Virginia Tech, meanwhile has averaged just 378 yards at 4.9 yppl on offense while allowing 356 yards at 5.6 yppl to 6 FBS opponents that are a combined 6.8 points better than average The Hurricanes’ impressive +2.4 yards per play differential in those games is offset somewhat by their -16.5 play differential while the Hokie’s -0.7 yppl differential is offset by their +14.3 play differential. Despite the enormous difference in play differential between thse teams (30.8 in favor of Virginia Tech), the Hurricanes still have a better total yardage differential (+60 to +22) and it’s unlikely that the Hokies will run 31 more plays than Miami in this game. But, if they do it’s still likely that Miami will outgain them and win this game. Overall the Hurricanes have a line of scrimmage rating (a rating that takes yards and yards per play into account and adjusts for schedule strength) that is 8.7 points better than Virginia Tech’s line of scrimmage rating and the Hurricanes are also better much better in special teams and in projected turnovers.
The big advantage for Miami is when Virginia Tech has the ball, as the Hokies’ offense has been 0.8 yards per play worse than average (4.9 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack) while Miami’s defense has been 1.1 yppl better than average, allowing just 4.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team. My math model projects Virginia Tech to average just 4.0 yppl in this game.
Miami also has an advantage when they have the ball, as the Hurricanes have averaged 7.3 yards per play with their big play attack. The big plays is why Miami doesn’t run a lot of plays on offense, but freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya is completing 63% of his passes and the rushing attack is very good (6.4 yards per rushing play) so the Hurricanes are certainly capable of putting a drive together if they don’t get a big play. However, Virginia Tech’s defense is a lot of man-to-man press coverage, which limits completions (46% allowed) but gives up the long pass (14.9 yards per completion is well above the national average of 12.0 ypc). That would seem to work just find for a Miami pass attack that averages 14.1 yards per catch with Kaaya in the game and Kaaya is getting better and better with experience after starting the season without much preseason reps with the first team offense (he was the 3rd string quarterback but was forced into duty). The coaching staff eased Kaaya into the playbook with mostly conservative plays the first two games but he’s completed 65.1% of his passes while averaging 15.0 yards per completion in the Hurricane’s last 5 games as the coaching staff has opened up the playbook and trusted him to throw the ball down the field. Virginia Tech puts a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks (4.0 sacks per game) but Miami is better than average in pass protection (1.8 sacks allowed to teams that combine to average 2.5 sacks per game) and Kaaya and big play receiver Phillip Dorsett (550 yards at 34.4 yards per catch!!) should be able to hit on a couple of big plays against the Hokie’s press coverage. Kaaya is projected to average a modest 6.3 yards per pass play in this game but the Hurricanes are projected to average 6.6 yards per rushing play against a mediocre Virginia Tech run defense that’s allowed 5.7 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.5 yprp against an average defensive team). Miami’s top two rushers, Duke Johnson and Joseph Yearby, both average over 7 yards per run so it’s not a stretch to project 6.6 yprp for the ‘Canes in this game.
Overall, the math gives Miami at very profitable 58.9% chance of covering and that percentage is enhanced by a 111-41-1 ATS statistical match up indicator that is based on the Hurricanes huge projected edge in yards per run. I’ll take Miami in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less, for 2-Stars at -3 ½ or -4 points and for 1-Star up to -6 points.
***West Virginia (+2 ½) 42 OKLAHOMA STATE 30
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 191 Over/Under 65.0
I was hoping that Oklahoma State wouldn’t get blown out by TCU last week because I was eyeing a bet on this game and wanted the best line value possible. I was shocked when I saw the opening line of Oklahoma State by 3 points and West Virginia is still a great bet even though the line has dropped. Both teams are 5-2 with both losses coming against good teams (West Virginia lost to Alabama and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State lost to Florida State and TCU) but the quality of West Virginia’s losses are better and the Mountaineers also have more impressive wins, most notably last week’s 41-27 win over #4 Baylor. West Virginia has played a schedule of 6 FBS teams that are collectively 10.0 points better than average while the 6 FBS teams that Oklahoma State has faced are a combined 2.6 points better than average. Despite that big gap in schedule strength West Virginia has outgained their FBS opponents by an average of 105 total yards and 0.5 yards per play while Oklahoma State has been outgained by their lesser schedule of FBS opponents by an average of 40 total yards while averaging 5.4 yppl and allowing 5.6 yppl. West Virginia has significantly better raw statistics despite facing a schedule that is 7.4 points tougher.
Oklahoma State has just 1 game rating (a number that takes game statistics, the opponent and site into account), the Cowboys’ 43-13 win over UTSA, that is good enough to beat West Virginia’s average game rating while the Mountaineers’ worst game rating, a 3 point win at Texas Tech, is 4 points better than Oklahoma State’s average game rating. It would take West Virginia’s worst game and Oklahoma State’s best game for us not to win this bet and my math model give the Mountaineers a very strong 61.6% chance of covering based on the historical performance of my model. I would have considered making this a 4-Star Best Bet if not for the possible letdown associated with last week’s upset win over Baylor but I think West Virginia players and coaches expected to win that game and I wasn’t surprised at all by that result. So, I think the chance of a letdown may not be as high as normal and West Virginia is likely to win this game even if they do letdown a bit. I’ll take West Virginia in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better, for 2-Stars up to -2 ½ points and for 1-Star at -3. I will also consider the Over (63) a Strong Opinion at 65 points or less.
***TCU (-21) 53 Texas Tech 23
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 160 Over/Under 70.5
TCU has split two close games against very good teams Oklahoma (won by 4) and Baylor (lost by 3) and the Horned Frogs have won by 23 points or more in every other game, including against better than average teams Minnesota and Oklahoma State, who they beat 42-9 last week. This should be another blowout win, as Texas Tech is an average team at best that has really only played one good game (a 3 point home loss to West Virginia). The Red Raiders do have a better than average offense from a yards per play perspective (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) but quarterback Davis Webb throws too many interceptions (12 in 7 games this season) and a 3.1% career interception rate is simply too high for an offense that throws the ball nearly 50 times per game. Overall the Texas Tech attack is just average and is likely to slowed by a good TCU defense that’s held their opponents to just 4.7 yards per play (those teams would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense) and has given up an average of only 20.7 points despite giving up 61 in one game. With both teams running an up tempo offense Texas Tech should produce a better than average yardage figure (I project 432 yards) but they are expected to average only 5.2 yards per play while throwing 2.4 interceptions against a ball-hawking TCU secondary that has intercepted over 5% of their opponents passes this season.
TCU’s offense averages is a nice balance of run (215 yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play) and pass (330 yards at 7.1 yards per pass play) and the Horned Frogs have averaged 45.2 points per game and 6.6 yards per play despite facing a better than average schedule of opposing defenses that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack. Texas Tech’s defense is 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl) and 0.4 yppl worse than the average defense that TCU has faced. Not only will TCU be facing a defense worse than they’ve faced on average but the Horned Frogs are likely to have more possessions than normal with both teams running their attacks at a fast pace. The math works out to 637 total yards at 7.1 yards per play, which should put TCU in the 50 point range.
Overall the math model shows plenty of value in favor of TCU and gives the Horned Frogs a 55.6% chance of covering based solely on the math. However, TCU also applies to a 57-9-1 ATS subset of a 160-74-6 ATS situation that is based on last week’s great defensive performance (allowed just 9 points to Oklahoma State) and the Horned Frogs also apply to a 120-55-4 ATS situation that is based on scoring 40 points or more in each of their last 2 games. Those angles don’t overlap that often but the record is 5-1 ATS when they do and TCU also applies to a 36-5 ATS revenge situation that plays on home favorites of 21 points or more. TCU should get their revenge in a big way today as they blowout another mediocre team. I’ll take TCU in a 3-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -23 points and 1-Star up to -24.
**VIRGINIA (-6 ½) 40 North Carolina 26
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 138 Over/Under 65.5
I lost my 1-Star Best Bet on Virginia +3 at Duke last week (13-20 final score) but the Cavaliers actually played better than expected with 465 total yards at 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing just 334 yards at 4.9 yppl to the Blue Devils. That undeserved loss did serve to keep the line on this game lower than it should be and it appears that the Cavaliers are still an underrated team (5-2 ATS with their other spread loss being by just 1 point). North Carolina, meanwhile, snapped a 4 game losing streak with a 48-43 home win over Georgia Tech in a game in which the Tarheels were outgained 579 yards at 6.6 yppl to 611 yards at 8.9 yppl. North Carolina’s defense is so bad that the 43 points they allowed last week actually slightly lowered their points per game allowed average. North Carolina has allowed 43.3 points per game on 524 yards at 6.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average stop unit. Virginia is nothing special offensively, rating at 0.1 yppl better than average with Matt Johns at quarterback but they are projected rack up 538 yards at 6.5 yppl at home against that bad UNC defense. Virginia has only faced two other bad defensive teams (Kent State and Richmond) and the Cavaliers scored 45 points in both of those games and should tally around 40 points today.
Virginia’s strength is in a defensive unit that has been consistently good all season and rates at 0.7 yards per play better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team). The Cavaliers’ defense has allowed more than 21 points only once all season (not including the 28 that UCLA scored since 21 of those were scored by the Bruins’ defense) and the 41 points that BYU scored is misleading given that the Cavs only gave up 335 total yards in that game. North Carolina does have a better than average offense (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and the Tarheels rate at 0.4 yppl better than average offensively with Marquise Williams at quarterback (he’s no longer splitting snaps with Trubinsky), but that attack is not as good as the Virginia defense and my math model projects only 5.2 yppl for UNC in this game (although they are expected to run a lot of plays and tally 391 total yards).
Virginia has a significant advantage from the line of scrimmage but North Carolina does have a 2 point edge in special teams. However, overall the math favors Virginia by 12 points and North Carolina’s high scoring close win last week sets up the Tarheels in a very negative 97-129-5 ATS road letdown situation today. I’ll take Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (Strong Opinion if the line goes to 7 ½ or higher).
**Central Michigan (-4 ½) 35 BUFFALO 22
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 129 Over/Under 57.5
Both of these teams are coming off upset losses but Central Michigan is more likely to bounce back thanks to the far superior defense. The offense units of these teams are pretty close, as Buffalo has averaged 6.0 yards per play with their starters in the game while facing teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team while the Chippewas rate at 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively with RB Thomas Rawls (1007 yards at 5.4 ypr despite missing two games) and star WR Titus Davis (40 catches and 491 yards in just 4 full games) both playing.
While Central Michigan is 0.2 yppl better than Buffalo offensively the Chippewas really separate themselves from the Bulls on defense. Central Michigan is a solid defensive team even by national standards, as the Chippewas have yielded just 5.2 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. Buffalo, meanwhile, has given up an average of 7.4 yppl in their 5 games against FBS teams and that number is still 6.7 yppl allowed if I include their two games against FCS teams Duquesne and Norfolk State. That 6.7 yppl was allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yppl against an average FBS defense. Buffalo has allowed 6.2 yppl or more in all 5 games against FBS competition despite facing only one better than average offensive team (Baylor) until today. Buffalo can’t stop the run (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp against an average team) and the Bulls are even worse defending the pass, allowing 8.3 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.3 yppp against an average team. A well balanced offense like Central Michigan should have no trouble moving the ball and my math model projects 439 yards at 7.6 yards per play for the Chippewas in this game and only 374 yards at 5.3 yppl for Buffalo. The yardage is closer than the yards per play because Buffalo gives up a lot of big plays, which require opponents fewer plays to score. Central Michigan has a 55.3% chance to cover based solely on the historical performance of my math model and the chances of covering are enhanced by a 76-17-1 ATS statistical match up indicator. I’ll take Central Michigan in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 1-Star up to -7 points.
**UNDER (44) – STANFORD (-13) 21 Oregon State 13
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 163 Over/Under 44.0
Both of these teams are much better defensively than they are offensively and that has led to some low scoring games. Every one of Stanford’s games has gone Under the total with an average of just 36.3 points total points and Oregon State has gone Under in 4 of their 6 games with a below average 48.3 total points per game in regulation (54.6 is average). If Oregon State’s games only average 48.3 total points, which is 6.3 points lower than average, and Stanford’s games average 18.3 total points lower than the national average then it seems pretty likely this game will total fewer than 40 points. Of course, points are variable, which is why I don’t use points in my model. So, let’s take a look at the match up from a yardage perspective.
Oregon State was a very good offensive team last season but the absence of All-American WR Brandin Cooks (128 receptions for 1730 yards last season) has had a major impact on veteran quarterback Sean Mannion, who is averaging just 6.1 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback). The Beavers have a better than average rushing attack and overall the offense is just 0.2 yards per play better than average (5.7 yppl with Mannion in the game against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack). However, a slightly better than average offense has very little chance of success against a dominating Stanford defense that’s yielded just 14.3 points and 280 yards per game at a miniscule 4.0 yards per play in 6 games against FBS teams. The Cardinal has posted those numbers against FBS teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team, which is 0.2 yppl better than Oregon State’s offense, which also runs their attack at a slower pace the Stanford’s opponents have. Oregon State has only faced two better than average defensive teams (USC and Utah) and the Beavers averaged 13 points (in regulation) and just 4.1 yppl in those two games. USC and Utah would combine to allow 4.7 yppl to an average team, which is 1.0 yppl worse than Stanford’s defense. Only good offensive teams Notre Dame, Washington State, and Arizona State have managed to score more than 13 points against the Cardinal an my math model projects just 237 total yards at 3.6 yppl and 11.8 points for Oregon State, which is certainly a reasonable projection based on the analysis I just presented.
While Oregon State’s offense has regressed without Cooks, the Beavers’ defense has bounced back to their normal standards after a down season in 2013. This year’s Beavers have yielded just 22.2 points (in regulation) and 4.7 yards per play to a collection of teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team and that unit has an advantage over a struggling Stanford attack that has averaged only 20.5 points and a mediocre 5.6 yppl in 6 games against FBS teams that rate as average defensively (5.6 yppl allowed to an average team). Stanford should be scoring more points than they have based on their stats and that is reflected in my model’s projection of 21.9 points on 320 yards at 5.4 yppl in this game. That projection also seems reasonable given that Oregon State has allowed just 22 points per game and Stanford has scored just 20.5 points per game against FBS teams.
Overall the math favors Stanford by just 10 points with a total of just 33.7 points and Oregon State applies to a 77-32-2 ATS situation that is based on the losses by both of these teams last week. I’ll certainly favor Oregon State plus the points but the better play is on the Under, as it’s unlikely that Oregon State would score more than 13 or 14 points and I certainly don’t see Stanford scoring around 30 points unless they get a special teams or defensive touchdown. I’ll go UNDER in a 2-Star Best Bet at 42 points or higher and for 1-Star down to 41 points.
*BOISE STATE (-6 ½) 35 Brigham Young 21
Fri Oct-24-2014 at 06:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 114 Over/Under 58.0
My math model would favor Boise State by 7 points in this game based on BYU’s season statistics but the Cougars are not nearly as good without injured star quarterback Taysom Hill, who ran for 532 yards at 7.3 yards per rushing play in less than 4 ½ games before getting hurt in the first half of their home loss to Utah State. Cougars’ backup Christian Stewart has struggled in the passing game, averaging just 4.7 yards per pass play while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Stewart is a decent runner (157 yards at 5.8 yprp) but is still a significant downgrade from Hill’s rushing numbers. BYU’s offense is now only 0.2 yards per play better than average for the season and the Cougars have been 0.6 yppl worse than average with Stewart at the controls. That does not bode well for that unit against a solid Boise State defense (0.1 yppl better than average) and the math projects BYU to average just 4.7 yards per play in this game.
The strength of BYU is now their defense but that unit is not actually that good, as the 4.9 yards per play the Cougars have allowed have come against teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against and average team. Boise State’s balanced attack (213 rushing yards and 276 passing yards per game) is 0.6 yppl better than average with starting quarterback Grant Hedrick in the game (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and the Broncos are projected to rack up 502 yards at 6.0 yppl in this game. BYU was overrated before Hill got injured and the Cougars are still overrated despite 5 consecutive pointspread losses. The math model gives Boise State a 56.5% chance of covering at -6 ½ points and a 54.3% chance at -7, based on the historical performance of my model, and that’s assuming a standard home field advantage. However, the Broncos have a long history of playing better on their blue turf, as they are 60% ATS all time at home - including 20-3 ATS in home games when not favored by more than 12 points. In other words the Broncos tend to play well against other good teams at home and this year’s squad is 2-1 ATS at home with a 13 point home win as an 8 point favorite against a good Colorado State team. I’ll take Boise State in a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
*WASHINGTON STATE (+2 ½) 43 Arizona 37
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 02:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 174 Over/Under 71.5
*OVER (71 ½)
Arizona is ranked at 5-1 while Washington State is 2-5 straight up. You might think by looking at those records that Arizona should be favored by more than 2 ½ points and the odds makers are begging you to take Arizona by setting the line at -2 ½ points. The fact is that Washington State and Arizona are pretty equal teams and the Cougars should be favored in this game. Arizona has only one impressive win, a 31-24 upset at Oregon (and I suppose you can count a 58-13 win over UNLV), but Arizona’s other wins have been just 3 points against UTSA, by 7 points against Nevada, and a home win over Cal on a Hail Mary pass on the final play of the game. Arizona is a better than average team, but not by much. The Wildcats have been 0.5 yards per play better than average offensively this season (6.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) but they’ve also been 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively, allowing 6.0 yppl to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive unit. Arizona’s worst defensive game was against a Cal team whose head coach Sonny Dykes learned his offensive system from Washington State’s head coach Mike Leach and I’m sure Leach used his bye week to dissect the footage of how his pupil lit up the Wildcats for 578 yards at 8.1 yards per play.
Leach’s team is averaging 35 points per game on 525 total yards at 6.4 yards per play (against teams that would allow just 5.3 yppl to an average attack) and the Cougars, who throw the ball 80% of the time, match up well against an Arizona defense that doesn’t defend the pass well (7.2 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.5 yppp against an average team). The 3 other bad pass defenses WSU has faced this season have been Rutgers, Portland State, and Cal and the Cougars averaged 52 points in those 3 games. The average pass defense ratings of Rutgers, Portland State, and Cal is only 0.2 yppp worse than Arizona’s pass defense rating and Washington State is projected to rack up 607 total yards at 7.4 yppl in this game in part due to the favorable match up. The Cougars should have no problem topping their 35 point average against a defense that is 1.0 yards per pass play worse defending the pass than the average rating of the defenses that the Cougars have faced so far this season.
Arizona’s offense will move the ball too, as their efficient offense (+0.6 yppl) is projected to gain 565 yards at 6.5 yppl against a sub-par Washington State defense that is 0.5 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team). While overall I rate these teams evenly, the math projects Washington State to win by 6 points (more than the standard 3.5 points home field advantage) because of the favorable match up of the Cougars’ pass-heavy attack against an Arizona defense that has trouble defending the pass. It also doesn’t hurt that Arizona is coming off their first loss of the season after starting out 5-0, as teams that start the season at 5-0 or better are just 47-73-1 ATS the game after suffering their first loss of the season. I’ll take Washington State in a 1-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 2-Stars if the line goes up to +3 or more.
The math also project a lot of total points in this game, as both teams run their offense at a higher than normal pace and both attacks are expected to move the ball well. Washington State’s games have averaged 70.0 total points and today they face a team with a defense that is 0.6 yards per play worse than the average defense that Washington State has faced and they face an offense that is 0.5 yppl better than the average offensive rating of the teams the Cougars have faced. This game is also expected to have considerably more total plays than the 154 plays that Washington State’s games have averaged (excluding kneel downs and spiked passes) since Arizona also runs their offense at a brisk pace. I’ll go OVER 73 points or less in a 1-Star Best Bet.
*AUBURN (-19) 46 South Carolina 20
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 118 Over/Under 65.0
Last season Auburn suffered a loss at LSU and then had a bye week to get over it and didn’t lose again until the National Championship game against Florida State. Auburn players say that last year’s loss bonded the team tighter and feel the same thing will happen this season starting with today’s game against South Carolina. Auburn really doesn’t need to play any better than they have this season to whip a defensively porous Gamecocks squad that doesn’t have a chance to stop the Tigers from moving the ball with relative ease. South Carolina’s defense wasn’t that good last season with two great players in Jadeveon Clowney and Kelcy Quarles and this year’s defense, with no impact players, has allowed an average of 35 points and 444 yards per game at 6.5 yards per play against FBS competition that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team. The Gamecocks have been particularly poor defending the run, allowing 6.2 yards per rushing play, and that does not bode well for them today against an Auburn attack that averages 268 ground yards per game at 5.9 yprp (against teams that would allow just 4.5 yprp to an average team). Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall isn’t as good of a passer as backup Jeremy Johnson is but Marshall is still 1.5 yards per pass play better than average (6.9 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback). Auburn has averaged 39 points per game against a tough slate of opposing defensive units that rate at 0.5 yppl better than average and today they’ll face a South Carolina stop unit that’s been 0.4 yppl worse than average. South Carolina is actually the worst defensive team that Auburn has faced so far this season and the Tigers, who have scored 41 points or more in 4 of 6 games, should score between 42 and 50 points in this game.
Auburn actually isn’t as good offensively this season as they were a year ago but the Tigers are much better defensively, as this year’s defense has been 1.2 yards per play better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team). The 38 points that Auburn gave up to Mississippi State two weeks ago was the only time they’ve allowed more than 21 points, which is impressive given that Arkansas, Kansas State, and LSU are all good offensive teams. The Tigers actually played at their normal very good level in that loss to Mississippi State, as they allowed 6.1 yppl to a Bulldogs’ attack that would average 7.3 yppl at home against an average team with Dak Prescott at quarterback for the entire game. South Carolina’s offense certainly presents another challenge, as the Gamecocks are 0.8 yppl better than average offensively (6.0 yppl against 6 FBS teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) but Auburn’s defense is 0.4 yppl better and the math model projects a modest 332 yards at 5.0 yppl for the Gamecocks in this game, which projects to about 21 points.
The line on this game seems high to most because the thought of South Carolina getting close to 20 points seems odd since the Gamecocks have been so consistently good in recent years. However, Steve Spurrier’s squad is only 0.4 yards per play better than an average FBS team and they’ll struggle to win more than 6 games. I’ve already cashed my 2-Star season win total play on Under 9.5 wins and I’ll look to make some more profit going against a Gamecocks’ squad that is still overrated despite being just 1-6 ATS this season. I’ll take Auburn in a 1-Star Best Bet at -20 points or less and for 2-Stars at -17 points or less.
*UTAH (+1) 30 Usc 23
Sat Oct-25-2014 at 07:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 176 Over/Under 56.0
Utah is 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS with their only loss by just 1 point yet the Utes still aren’t getting enough respect based on the line on this game. Utah is every bit as good as USC is from a yards per play perspective and the Utes have the best special teams in the nation and that field position should make the difference in this game. These teams are pretty evenly matched from the line of scrimmage, as USC has been 1.1 yards per play better than average overall (+0.6 yppl on offense and +0.5 yppl on defense) while Utah is also 1.1 yppl better than average, rating at 0.1 yppl better than average offensively and 1.0 yppl better than average defensively.
Both teams have a 0.4 yppl advantage with their defense over the other team’s offense and field position tends to matter more in defensive games. That’s where Utah’s superior special teams will make the difference. Utah has a nation’s best +10.5 yards net punt differential, as the Utes average net punt is 44.3 yards while their opponents average a 33.8 yards net punt thanks to punt returner Kaelin Clay, who already has returned 3 punt return touchdown. Clay also has returned a kickoff for a touchdown and Utah also has an average starting yard line of 30.5 on kickoffs while their opponents’ average starting yard line is 24.6. USC, meanwhile, is below average in both net punt differential (34.5 to 34.9) and in kickoff yard line differential (26.0 to 27.8) and all those yards of field position on punts and kickoffs add up. Utah also has the best field goal kicker rating in the nation, as Andy Phillips has added 2.0 points per game over an average kicker with his 9 for 11 on field goals of more than 40 yards (he’s perfect inside of 40 yards). Utah is a better overall team than USC and I’ll take Utah in a 1-Star Best Bet at -1 or better (Strong Opinion from -1 ½ to -2 ½ points).
