SB Professor Soccer Picks
Saturday 20th October
League: English Premier League
Match: Tottenham v Chelsea
Kick Off: 07:45 EST – 12:45 UK TIME
Bet: Back Tottenham
Current Best Odds: 2.70
League: English Premier League
Match: Swansea v Wigan
Kick Off: 10:00 EST – 15:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Swansea
Current Best Odds: 2.15
League: English Premier League
Match: West Brom v Man City
Kick Off: 10:00 EST – 15:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back West Brom
Current Best Odds: 5.45
League: English Premier League
Match: Norwich v Arsenal
Kick Off: 12:30 EST – 17:30 UK TIME
Bet: Back Norwich
Current Best Odds: 6.50
League: French Ligue Un
Match: Evian TG v Toulouse
Kick Off: 14:00 EST – 19:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Evian TG
Current Best Odds: 2.82
League: French Ligue Un
Match: Nancy v Sochaux
Kick Off: 14:00 EST – 19:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Nancy
Current Best Odds: 2.05
League: French Ligue Un
Match: Nice v St Etienne
Kick Off: 14:00 EST – 19:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Nice
Current Best Odds: 3.00
League: French Ligue Un
Match: Rennes v Montpellier
Kick Off: 14:00 EST – 19:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Rennes
Current Best Odds: 2.30
League: French Ligue Un
Match: Valenciennes v Lorient
Kick Off: 14:00 EST – 19:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Valenciennes
Current Best Odds: 2.25
League: Italian Serie A
Match: Lazio v AC Milan
Kick Off: 14:45 EST – 19:45 UK TIME
Bet: Back Lazio
Current Best Odds: 2.50
League: Spanish La Liga
Match: Deportivo v Barcelona
Kick Off: 16:00 EST – 21:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Deportivo
Current Best Odds: 10.90
Saturday 20th October
League: English Premier League
Match: Tottenham v Chelsea
Kick Off: 07:45 EST – 12:45 UK TIME
Bet: Back Tottenham
Current Best Odds: 2.70
League: English Premier League
Match: Swansea v Wigan
Kick Off: 10:00 EST – 15:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Swansea
Current Best Odds: 2.15
League: English Premier League
Match: West Brom v Man City
Kick Off: 10:00 EST – 15:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back West Brom
Current Best Odds: 5.45
League: English Premier League
Match: Norwich v Arsenal
Kick Off: 12:30 EST – 17:30 UK TIME
Bet: Back Norwich
Current Best Odds: 6.50
League: French Ligue Un
Match: Evian TG v Toulouse
Kick Off: 14:00 EST – 19:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Evian TG
Current Best Odds: 2.82
League: French Ligue Un
Match: Nancy v Sochaux
Kick Off: 14:00 EST – 19:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Nancy
Current Best Odds: 2.05
League: French Ligue Un
Match: Nice v St Etienne
Kick Off: 14:00 EST – 19:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Nice
Current Best Odds: 3.00
League: French Ligue Un
Match: Rennes v Montpellier
Kick Off: 14:00 EST – 19:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Rennes
Current Best Odds: 2.30
League: French Ligue Un
Match: Valenciennes v Lorient
Kick Off: 14:00 EST – 19:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Valenciennes
Current Best Odds: 2.25
League: Italian Serie A
Match: Lazio v AC Milan
Kick Off: 14:45 EST – 19:45 UK TIME
Bet: Back Lazio
Current Best Odds: 2.50
League: Spanish La Liga
Match: Deportivo v Barcelona
Kick Off: 16:00 EST – 21:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Deportivo
Current Best Odds: 10.90
Accuscore
Analyst's College Football Picks: Week 8
Written by Jon Lee
Our College football expert has four new picks for this Saturday’s college football action. This week, his free pick is Louisiana Monroe at Western Kentucky, and he’s got three more picks below that are reserved for members only. Those two picks include Stanford at California, LSU at Texas A&M, and Florida State at Miami (Florida):
Top 4 Analyst Picks: College Football Week 8
FREE PICK:
Louisiana Monroe +3.5 at Western Kentucky
Both these teams are surprisingly good with a combined 9-3 record. AccuScore projects this game to be as even as can be with the Warhawks getting the slight edge winning 50.5 percent of simulations and averaging 0.2 more points. They are however getting more than a field goal which provides a solid value for bettors.
Stanford -2.5 @ California
I think this is case of the Bears being overvalued coming off of two wins. Those two wins however came against Washington State, one of the five worst BCS teams in the country, and UCLA, a team that hasn’t won in Berkeley since 1998 and turned the ball over six times. If UCLA had won that game this line is probably closer to 6 or 7 points. AccuScore simulations have Stanford winning this game nearly 64 percent of the time by an average margin of 6.3 points. The Cardinal also win by double digits 42.4 percent of the time, and cover 59 percent of the time. Neither team is particularly good on offense because of poor quarterback play. I would give Stanford the edge there because its offensive line is the best in the Pac-12, and would allow a better chance for the offense to make plays.
The real difference comes on defense where Stanford is significantly better. Cal’s defense ranks in the bottom half in the Pac-12 in rush and pass defense, pass efficiency against, total and scoring defense, sacks, and tackles for loss. Stanford has the second best rush defense, the second most tackles for loss, and fourth most sacks. Cal was able to beat Washington State mostly due to a huge game running the ball, which it likely won’t be able to do this week. I recommend taking this game before the line moves over a field goal.
LSU -4 @ Texas A&M
This is a pick against the Aggies fully getting integrated into the SEC. They did open the season against Florida losing a close game 17-20, but that was ages ago on September 9. Florida’s offense has improved greatly since then, and what I would instead focus on is the Gator defense. It was able to limit A&M’s offense to just 17 points. Since then, the Aggies have fattened up against poor defenses to post video game numbers behind wunderkind Johnny Manziel. The super freshman has been incredible, but he alone is the A&M offense. LSU is about seven steps up in quality on defense than he has seen over the past month with far better athletes and a vicious pass rush.
LSU wins nearly 65 percent of simulations by an average margin of 6.6 points. This line opened at -3.0 and will probably close closer to -5. I would take LSU before it gets to that point. Manziel is a dynamic playmaker, and he will probably still make a few against the Tigers but not nearly to the level he has over the past month. That will put the shaky Aggie defense in some bad spots, and I don’t trust it to stand up over the course of 60 minutes.
Florida State -20.5 @ Miami (FL)
The Seminoles rank either first or second in the ACC in almost every statistical category. Their best, and maybe only, chance of getting back into the national title picture is by blowing out their opponents. The ACC is simply too weak to just run the table from this point on. They have to do it with extra style. Last week was mission accomplished with a 44 point win over BC. FSU has to do that again against Miami. The Hurricanes are just a bad team, and they have the worst defense in the ACC. Simulations project FSU for 40 points, and I’m not sure that is high enough.
Analyst's College Football Picks: Week 8
Written by Jon Lee
Our College football expert has four new picks for this Saturday’s college football action. This week, his free pick is Louisiana Monroe at Western Kentucky, and he’s got three more picks below that are reserved for members only. Those two picks include Stanford at California, LSU at Texas A&M, and Florida State at Miami (Florida):
Top 4 Analyst Picks: College Football Week 8
FREE PICK:
Louisiana Monroe +3.5 at Western Kentucky
Both these teams are surprisingly good with a combined 9-3 record. AccuScore projects this game to be as even as can be with the Warhawks getting the slight edge winning 50.5 percent of simulations and averaging 0.2 more points. They are however getting more than a field goal which provides a solid value for bettors.
Stanford -2.5 @ California
I think this is case of the Bears being overvalued coming off of two wins. Those two wins however came against Washington State, one of the five worst BCS teams in the country, and UCLA, a team that hasn’t won in Berkeley since 1998 and turned the ball over six times. If UCLA had won that game this line is probably closer to 6 or 7 points. AccuScore simulations have Stanford winning this game nearly 64 percent of the time by an average margin of 6.3 points. The Cardinal also win by double digits 42.4 percent of the time, and cover 59 percent of the time. Neither team is particularly good on offense because of poor quarterback play. I would give Stanford the edge there because its offensive line is the best in the Pac-12, and would allow a better chance for the offense to make plays.
The real difference comes on defense where Stanford is significantly better. Cal’s defense ranks in the bottom half in the Pac-12 in rush and pass defense, pass efficiency against, total and scoring defense, sacks, and tackles for loss. Stanford has the second best rush defense, the second most tackles for loss, and fourth most sacks. Cal was able to beat Washington State mostly due to a huge game running the ball, which it likely won’t be able to do this week. I recommend taking this game before the line moves over a field goal.
LSU -4 @ Texas A&M
This is a pick against the Aggies fully getting integrated into the SEC. They did open the season against Florida losing a close game 17-20, but that was ages ago on September 9. Florida’s offense has improved greatly since then, and what I would instead focus on is the Gator defense. It was able to limit A&M’s offense to just 17 points. Since then, the Aggies have fattened up against poor defenses to post video game numbers behind wunderkind Johnny Manziel. The super freshman has been incredible, but he alone is the A&M offense. LSU is about seven steps up in quality on defense than he has seen over the past month with far better athletes and a vicious pass rush.
LSU wins nearly 65 percent of simulations by an average margin of 6.6 points. This line opened at -3.0 and will probably close closer to -5. I would take LSU before it gets to that point. Manziel is a dynamic playmaker, and he will probably still make a few against the Tigers but not nearly to the level he has over the past month. That will put the shaky Aggie defense in some bad spots, and I don’t trust it to stand up over the course of 60 minutes.
Florida State -20.5 @ Miami (FL)
The Seminoles rank either first or second in the ACC in almost every statistical category. Their best, and maybe only, chance of getting back into the national title picture is by blowing out their opponents. The ACC is simply too weak to just run the table from this point on. They have to do it with extra style. Last week was mission accomplished with a 44 point win over BC. FSU has to do that again against Miami. The Hurricanes are just a bad team, and they have the worst defense in the ACC. Simulations project FSU for 40 points, and I’m not sure that is high enough.
Prediction Machine
FLAATL @ USA 45 37.9 Under 59.4%
MINN @ WISC 45 50.5 Over 58.2%
MSU @ MICH 43 38.4 Under 57.8%
NCSU @ MD 45 37.8 Under 57.6
KANSAS @ OKLA 57.5 65.8 Over 57.6
CIN @ TOLEDO 64.5 57.5 Under 57.3
FIU @ TROY 55 62.3 Over 57.3
Kent St 60.8%
Toledo 59.5%
NM 58.8%
BYU 58.6
Iowa 58.1
Nevada 58.0
Baylor 57.9
MINN 57.7
Duke 57.6
MSU 57.5
WYO 57.4
NEB 57.2
Vandy 57.2
FLAATL @ USA 45 37.9 Under 59.4%
MINN @ WISC 45 50.5 Over 58.2%
MSU @ MICH 43 38.4 Under 57.8%
NCSU @ MD 45 37.8 Under 57.6
KANSAS @ OKLA 57.5 65.8 Over 57.6
CIN @ TOLEDO 64.5 57.5 Under 57.3
FIU @ TROY 55 62.3 Over 57.3
Kent St 60.8%
Toledo 59.5%
NM 58.8%
BYU 58.6
Iowa 58.1
Nevada 58.0
Baylor 57.9
MINN 57.7
Duke 57.6
MSU 57.5
WYO 57.4
NEB 57.2
Vandy 57.2
Michigan State at Michigan: What Bettors Need to Know
Michigan State at Michigan (-9.5, 43)
Michigan State’s goal of winning the Big Ten and playing in the Rose Bowl is looking more and more like a long shot with each backbreaking loss. The Spartans fell to 1-2 in conference play last weekend and have dropped out of the Top 25. One thing that could greatly improve their outlook on the last half of the season would be a win over rival Michigan. The No. 25 Wolverines are undefeated in the Big Ten and are tied for first in the Legends Division. Michigan has rolled over inferior opponents but has yet to post a win over strong competition. The Wolverines will not face another ranked team until the regular-season finale at Ohio State, but have struggled with their in-state rivals, dropping four straight to the Spartans. Michigan will be looking to end that streak when it hosts Michigan State on Saturday.
TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network.
LINE: Michigan -9.5, O/U 43.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s with a 40 percent chance of showers at Michigan Stadium. Winds will blow out of the west at 11 mph.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (4-3, 1-2 Big Ten): The Spartans matched their longest winning streak in the series in last season’s 28-14 triumph in East Lansing. The defense held Michigan to 250 total yards and forced a turnover while Kirk Cousins threw for a pair of touchdowns and Edwin Baker dominated on the ground. The defense has at times been that strong in 2012 but the offense has taken a big step back. With Cousins now in the NFL with the Washington Redskins backing up Robert Griffin III, Michigan State is averaging only 21.0 points - 104th in the nation. Junior running back Le’Veon Bell has been asked to carry much of the burden and has at least 29 carries in four of the Spartans’ seven games. He rushed 29 times for 140 yards and a score last week, but it wasn’t enough in a 19-16 double overtime home loss to Iowa.
ABOUT MICHIGAN (4-2, 2-0): Brady Hoke suffered his first loss as coach of the Wolverines against the Spartans last season, when Denard Robinson was harassed into a 9 for 24 passing performance. Robinson ended up throwing for 123 yards and one interception and was held to only 42 yards on the ground. The dual-threat quarterback has had similar struggles in 2012 against ranked teams Alabama and Notre Dame, combining for one touchdown and six interceptions in those two losses. But Robinson and the Wolverines offense has looked unstoppable in back-to-back wins over Purdue and Illinois by a combined 89-13. Robinson rushed for two touchdowns and threw for two more against the Illini. With games against Northwestern and Iowa at home in November, Michigan could control its own destiny for the Legends Division.
TRENDS:
* Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Spartans’ last seven games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The school that won the rushing battle has taken 39 of the last 42 games in the series.
2. Michigan leads the all-time series 67-32-5, including 48-20-3 at home.
3. The Spartans have not lost consecutive conference games in the same season since falling to Iowa and Minnesota in October 2009.
Michigan State at Michigan (-9.5, 43)
Michigan State’s goal of winning the Big Ten and playing in the Rose Bowl is looking more and more like a long shot with each backbreaking loss. The Spartans fell to 1-2 in conference play last weekend and have dropped out of the Top 25. One thing that could greatly improve their outlook on the last half of the season would be a win over rival Michigan. The No. 25 Wolverines are undefeated in the Big Ten and are tied for first in the Legends Division. Michigan has rolled over inferior opponents but has yet to post a win over strong competition. The Wolverines will not face another ranked team until the regular-season finale at Ohio State, but have struggled with their in-state rivals, dropping four straight to the Spartans. Michigan will be looking to end that streak when it hosts Michigan State on Saturday.
TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network.
LINE: Michigan -9.5, O/U 43.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s with a 40 percent chance of showers at Michigan Stadium. Winds will blow out of the west at 11 mph.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (4-3, 1-2 Big Ten): The Spartans matched their longest winning streak in the series in last season’s 28-14 triumph in East Lansing. The defense held Michigan to 250 total yards and forced a turnover while Kirk Cousins threw for a pair of touchdowns and Edwin Baker dominated on the ground. The defense has at times been that strong in 2012 but the offense has taken a big step back. With Cousins now in the NFL with the Washington Redskins backing up Robert Griffin III, Michigan State is averaging only 21.0 points - 104th in the nation. Junior running back Le’Veon Bell has been asked to carry much of the burden and has at least 29 carries in four of the Spartans’ seven games. He rushed 29 times for 140 yards and a score last week, but it wasn’t enough in a 19-16 double overtime home loss to Iowa.
ABOUT MICHIGAN (4-2, 2-0): Brady Hoke suffered his first loss as coach of the Wolverines against the Spartans last season, when Denard Robinson was harassed into a 9 for 24 passing performance. Robinson ended up throwing for 123 yards and one interception and was held to only 42 yards on the ground. The dual-threat quarterback has had similar struggles in 2012 against ranked teams Alabama and Notre Dame, combining for one touchdown and six interceptions in those two losses. But Robinson and the Wolverines offense has looked unstoppable in back-to-back wins over Purdue and Illinois by a combined 89-13. Robinson rushed for two touchdowns and threw for two more against the Illini. With games against Northwestern and Iowa at home in November, Michigan could control its own destiny for the Legends Division.
TRENDS:
* Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Spartans’ last seven games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The school that won the rushing battle has taken 39 of the last 42 games in the series.
2. Michigan leads the all-time series 67-32-5, including 48-20-3 at home.
3. The Spartans have not lost consecutive conference games in the same season since falling to Iowa and Minnesota in October 2009.
South Carolina at Florida: What Bettors Need to Know
South Carolina at Florida (-3.5, 41)
Steve Spurrier built Florida into a powerhouse in the 1990s behind a high-powered offense that helped produce six SEC titles and one national championship. When Spurrier - now the head coach at South Carolina - returns to Gainesville on Saturday, he'll hardly recognize the program he left. That won't make the task any easier for Spurrier and No. 8 South Carolina against the fourth-ranked Gators, who have used a staunch ground game to remain undefeated and climb to No. 2 in the season's initial BCS standings. The Gamecocks have won the last two meetings, including a 36-14 win in 2010 that marked their first win in Gainesville following 12 consecutive losses.
TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: Florida -3.5, O/U 42.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-70s under sunny skies. Winds will be light out of the west.
ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (6-1, 4-1 SEC): The Gamecocks had their 10-game win streak snapped in a 23-21 loss last week at Louisiana State in the second of three straight matchups against top-10 opponents. LSU, which lost at Florida a week earlier, limited star running back Marcus Lattimore to a season-low 35 yards on 13 carries. Lattimore rushed for 212 yards and three touchdowns at Florida two years ago but missed last season's matchup due to a knee injury. Quarterback Connor Shaw, who struggled in last week's loss, hurt Florida more with his legs than his arm last season, rushing for 88 yards and two TDs in South Carolina's 17-12 victory.
ABOUT FLORIDA (6-0, 5-0): Gators quarterback Jeff Driskel threw for only 77 yards in last week's 31-17 win at Vanderbilt, but he ran for three touchdowns and 177 yards - eclipsing the school-record 166 yards rushing by a QB set by Tim Tebow. Florida ranks last in the SEC in passing and has accumulated a combined 138 yards through the air in the past two games. That number has been offset by a running game featuring Mike Gillislee, who has three 100-yard games and has rushed for seven touchdowns, and a defense that is third in the SEC against the run. Florida has shown its mettle by erasing halftime deficits to beat Texas A&M, Tennessee and LSU.
TRENDS:
* Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Gators’ last four home games.
* Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Florida has already matched its regular-season win total from a year ago.
2. Lattimore has run for 10 touchdowns this season and has rushed for 37 TDs in 27 career games.
3. The Gators lead the all-time series 23-6-3 and have won 17 of 20 meetings since South Carolina joined the SEC.
South Carolina at Florida (-3.5, 41)
Steve Spurrier built Florida into a powerhouse in the 1990s behind a high-powered offense that helped produce six SEC titles and one national championship. When Spurrier - now the head coach at South Carolina - returns to Gainesville on Saturday, he'll hardly recognize the program he left. That won't make the task any easier for Spurrier and No. 8 South Carolina against the fourth-ranked Gators, who have used a staunch ground game to remain undefeated and climb to No. 2 in the season's initial BCS standings. The Gamecocks have won the last two meetings, including a 36-14 win in 2010 that marked their first win in Gainesville following 12 consecutive losses.
TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: Florida -3.5, O/U 42.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-70s under sunny skies. Winds will be light out of the west.
ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (6-1, 4-1 SEC): The Gamecocks had their 10-game win streak snapped in a 23-21 loss last week at Louisiana State in the second of three straight matchups against top-10 opponents. LSU, which lost at Florida a week earlier, limited star running back Marcus Lattimore to a season-low 35 yards on 13 carries. Lattimore rushed for 212 yards and three touchdowns at Florida two years ago but missed last season's matchup due to a knee injury. Quarterback Connor Shaw, who struggled in last week's loss, hurt Florida more with his legs than his arm last season, rushing for 88 yards and two TDs in South Carolina's 17-12 victory.
ABOUT FLORIDA (6-0, 5-0): Gators quarterback Jeff Driskel threw for only 77 yards in last week's 31-17 win at Vanderbilt, but he ran for three touchdowns and 177 yards - eclipsing the school-record 166 yards rushing by a QB set by Tim Tebow. Florida ranks last in the SEC in passing and has accumulated a combined 138 yards through the air in the past two games. That number has been offset by a running game featuring Mike Gillislee, who has three 100-yard games and has rushed for seven touchdowns, and a defense that is third in the SEC against the run. Florida has shown its mettle by erasing halftime deficits to beat Texas A&M, Tennessee and LSU.
TRENDS:
* Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Gators’ last four home games.
* Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Florida has already matched its regular-season win total from a year ago.
2. Lattimore has run for 10 touchdowns this season and has rushed for 37 TDs in 27 career games.
3. The Gators lead the all-time series 23-6-3 and have won 17 of 20 meetings since South Carolina joined the SEC.
Kansas State at West Virginia: What Bettors Need to Know
Kansas State at West Virginia (-2.5, 73.5)
The Big 12 showdown lost some intrigue when No. 15 West Virginia was drubbed by Texas Tech last week, but Saturday's game remains a huge contest for No. 3 Kansas State in its first visit to Morgantown since 1931. Prior to the Mountaineers’ loss, this clash was on a collision course to be a high-stakes contest between two unbeaten squads. The Wildcats are alone in first place in the Big 12 and are surprise entrants in the national championship picture. The Mountaineers are in a four-way tie for second place and their big-play offense is being sabotaged by a leaky defense that is one of the worst in the nation. West Virginia has allowed a whopping 157 points in three conference games.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, Fox.
LINE: West Virginia -2.5, O/U 73.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s with a 40 percent chance of showers at Mountaineer Field. Winds will be light out of the west.
ABOUT KANSAS STATE (6-0, 3-0 Big 12): Senior run-first quarterback Collin Klein is on the fringe of the Heisman Trophy race. Klein has rushed for 10 touchdowns and passed for seven, completing 66.9 percent of his passes with only two interceptions. He has 510 rushing yards. Junior running back John Hubert (602 yards) is averaging 6.2 yards per carry and has rushed for eight touchdowns. The defense hasn’t allowed more than 21 points in a game but will be challenged by the high-flying Mountaineers. Junior safety Ty Zimmerman has a team-best three interceptions and senior defensive end Adam Davis has a team-high six tackles for loss.
ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (5-1, 2-1): Senior quarterback Geno Smith has had a tremendous season with 25 touchdown passes against no interceptions. He has a streak of 314 passes since he was last picked off and is the Heisman Trophy frontrunner with 2,271 yards. Senior wideout Tavon Austin (68 receptions, 758 yards) has caught 10 or more passes in seven straight games dating back to last season. Junior receiver Stedman Bailey has been slowed by an ankle injury and has 55 receptions for a team-high 799 yards. The defense was riddled for 676 yards by Texas Tech two weeks after allowing 700 to Baylor. The Mountaineers are allowing 37.3 points and 498.5 yards per game.
TRENDS:
* Wildcats are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.
* Over is 7-2 in Mountaineers’ last nine home games.
* Over is 4-1 in Wildcats’ last five October games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. This is only the third meeting between the squads and the first in 81 years. The series is tied 1-1.
2. Kansas State is seeking a fourth straight road victory against a ranked opponent, which would mark a first in school history.
3. West Virginia has allowed 600-plus yards in two of its last three games. That had occurred only one time in the school’s football history previously.
Kansas State at West Virginia (-2.5, 73.5)
The Big 12 showdown lost some intrigue when No. 15 West Virginia was drubbed by Texas Tech last week, but Saturday's game remains a huge contest for No. 3 Kansas State in its first visit to Morgantown since 1931. Prior to the Mountaineers’ loss, this clash was on a collision course to be a high-stakes contest between two unbeaten squads. The Wildcats are alone in first place in the Big 12 and are surprise entrants in the national championship picture. The Mountaineers are in a four-way tie for second place and their big-play offense is being sabotaged by a leaky defense that is one of the worst in the nation. West Virginia has allowed a whopping 157 points in three conference games.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, Fox.
LINE: West Virginia -2.5, O/U 73.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s with a 40 percent chance of showers at Mountaineer Field. Winds will be light out of the west.
ABOUT KANSAS STATE (6-0, 3-0 Big 12): Senior run-first quarterback Collin Klein is on the fringe of the Heisman Trophy race. Klein has rushed for 10 touchdowns and passed for seven, completing 66.9 percent of his passes with only two interceptions. He has 510 rushing yards. Junior running back John Hubert (602 yards) is averaging 6.2 yards per carry and has rushed for eight touchdowns. The defense hasn’t allowed more than 21 points in a game but will be challenged by the high-flying Mountaineers. Junior safety Ty Zimmerman has a team-best three interceptions and senior defensive end Adam Davis has a team-high six tackles for loss.
ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (5-1, 2-1): Senior quarterback Geno Smith has had a tremendous season with 25 touchdown passes against no interceptions. He has a streak of 314 passes since he was last picked off and is the Heisman Trophy frontrunner with 2,271 yards. Senior wideout Tavon Austin (68 receptions, 758 yards) has caught 10 or more passes in seven straight games dating back to last season. Junior receiver Stedman Bailey has been slowed by an ankle injury and has 55 receptions for a team-high 799 yards. The defense was riddled for 676 yards by Texas Tech two weeks after allowing 700 to Baylor. The Mountaineers are allowing 37.3 points and 498.5 yards per game.
TRENDS:
* Wildcats are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.
* Over is 7-2 in Mountaineers’ last nine home games.
* Over is 4-1 in Wildcats’ last five October games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. This is only the third meeting between the squads and the first in 81 years. The series is tied 1-1.
2. Kansas State is seeking a fourth straight road victory against a ranked opponent, which would mark a first in school history.
3. West Virginia has allowed 600-plus yards in two of its last three games. That had occurred only one time in the school’s football history previously.
Where The Action is: NCAAF Week 8 Line Moves
Taxi cabs in Las Vegas may be striking to a standstill but plenty of Sin City's college football spreads are on the move heading into the weekend.
We chat with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about some of the most notable adjustments on the Week 8 board:
Pittsburgh Panthers at Buffalo Bulls – Open: +11, Move: +8.5
Early money is siding with the Panthers in this Big East vs. MAC battle, moving the spread past the key number of 10 and as low as 8.5. Stoneback says there haven’t been many wagers placed on this game but all of them have been big plays on the underdog.
“It’s all pros focusing on a game like this,” Stoneback told Covers. “We’ve literally taken like three bets on this game and all three have been on Buffalo and the points.”
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats – Open: +4.5, Move: +7
Money on the road side has moved this Big Ten spread to a touchdown at some markets. The Mirage opened at 4.5 and jumped straight to 5.5 and 6 with action on the Huskers. Stoneback believes that bettors aren’t buying into Northwestern or its 6-1 record.
“They’ve played a pretty soft schedule up to this point,” he says. “This is really the first quality opponent that they’ve come up against.”
Cincinnati Bearcats at Toledo Rockets – Open: +7, Move: +5
This spread has been up and down all week, opening with the Bearcats as touchdown road faves and climbing as high as 7.5 before bettors bought back the Rockets at a feverish pace and dropped the spread to the dead number of +5.
Stoneback says this game is much like the Pitt-Buffalo matchup, with a small ticket count but limit bets ($5,000 for MAC games) being made on the underdog.
“These in-state games are always tough,” he says. “There is always that added incentive to knock off one of the big boys – not that Cincinnati is a big team in the state, like Ohio State. But they’re a big BCS school.”
Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats – Open: +28, Move: +26
This spread is surprisingly shrinking despite the fact UK is down to its third-string QB, Jalen Whitlow, and has lost five in a row SU and ATS, putting head coach Joker Phillips’ head on the chopping block.
Stoneback believes bettors are being cautious of UGA, with star LB Jarvis Jones nursing an ankle injury and a huge rivalry game with Florida in the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" set for Jacksonville next week.
“This is a possible look-ahead game for Georgia,” says Stoneback. “Obviously, they should win but they don’t want to show too much and may want to rest some people. With everything happening with Kentucky, they’ll be putting in 100 percent effort while Georgia may not be.”
Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes – Open: +18, Move: +21.5
This classic Sunshine State rivalry seems a bit one-sided to bettors, who have pumped up the spread for this ACC showdown.
The Mirage has been opening Florida State higher than some other books this season due to the Seminoles’ public appeal, opening this spread at 20.5 compared to some online markets which initially dealt FSU -18.
“That public appeal (of FSU) and the fact that Miami has looked terrible in recent outings, that combo is driving that move,” says Stoneback.
Taxi cabs in Las Vegas may be striking to a standstill but plenty of Sin City's college football spreads are on the move heading into the weekend.
We chat with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about some of the most notable adjustments on the Week 8 board:
Pittsburgh Panthers at Buffalo Bulls – Open: +11, Move: +8.5
Early money is siding with the Panthers in this Big East vs. MAC battle, moving the spread past the key number of 10 and as low as 8.5. Stoneback says there haven’t been many wagers placed on this game but all of them have been big plays on the underdog.
“It’s all pros focusing on a game like this,” Stoneback told Covers. “We’ve literally taken like three bets on this game and all three have been on Buffalo and the points.”
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats – Open: +4.5, Move: +7
Money on the road side has moved this Big Ten spread to a touchdown at some markets. The Mirage opened at 4.5 and jumped straight to 5.5 and 6 with action on the Huskers. Stoneback believes that bettors aren’t buying into Northwestern or its 6-1 record.
“They’ve played a pretty soft schedule up to this point,” he says. “This is really the first quality opponent that they’ve come up against.”
Cincinnati Bearcats at Toledo Rockets – Open: +7, Move: +5
This spread has been up and down all week, opening with the Bearcats as touchdown road faves and climbing as high as 7.5 before bettors bought back the Rockets at a feverish pace and dropped the spread to the dead number of +5.
Stoneback says this game is much like the Pitt-Buffalo matchup, with a small ticket count but limit bets ($5,000 for MAC games) being made on the underdog.
“These in-state games are always tough,” he says. “There is always that added incentive to knock off one of the big boys – not that Cincinnati is a big team in the state, like Ohio State. But they’re a big BCS school.”
Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats – Open: +28, Move: +26
This spread is surprisingly shrinking despite the fact UK is down to its third-string QB, Jalen Whitlow, and has lost five in a row SU and ATS, putting head coach Joker Phillips’ head on the chopping block.
Stoneback believes bettors are being cautious of UGA, with star LB Jarvis Jones nursing an ankle injury and a huge rivalry game with Florida in the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" set for Jacksonville next week.
“This is a possible look-ahead game for Georgia,” says Stoneback. “Obviously, they should win but they don’t want to show too much and may want to rest some people. With everything happening with Kentucky, they’ll be putting in 100 percent effort while Georgia may not be.”
Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes – Open: +18, Move: +21.5
This classic Sunshine State rivalry seems a bit one-sided to bettors, who have pumped up the spread for this ACC showdown.
The Mirage has been opening Florida State higher than some other books this season due to the Seminoles’ public appeal, opening this spread at 20.5 compared to some online markets which initially dealt FSU -18.
“That public appeal (of FSU) and the fact that Miami has looked terrible in recent outings, that combo is driving that move,” says Stoneback.
College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 8
If you're looking to get some action down but only have a few minutes to handicap, let our Top-25 cheat sheet help you out. We grab the best quick-hitting betting info on each of the Top 25 matchups with odds available in Week 8 of the season:
(17) Rutgers at Temple (5.5, 41)
The Scarlet Knights can win seven straight to start a season for only the third time since 1976 and the fifth time in the program’s 143 years. Rutgers is only allowing 11.5 points per contest and has held opponents to only 60.8 yards rushing. The Scarlet Knights have outscored opponents 48-3 in the third quarter and have covered the spread in their last four contests.
Virginia Tech at (13) Clemson (-8.5, 61.5)
Virginia Tech travels to No. 13 Clemson on Saturday for a rematch of last year's ACC championship. The Hokies have enjoyed going on the road in ACC play, producing a 27-6 mark since joining the league in 2004. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said all the players on his injury report are expected to play against Virginia Tech after getting additional rest from the bye week – WR Martavis Bryant (groin), RB D.J. Howard (shoulder), TE Brandon Ford (ankle) and LB Lateek Townsend (thigh). The Tigers have covered the spread in their last four conference games.
(6) LSU at (19) Texas A&M (3.5, 52)
Freshman QB Johnny Manziel has led the Aggies to an SEC-best 47 points and 543.7 total yards per game but will be tested by LSU's dominant defense. The Tigers rank second in the conference in total defense (219.6 yards per game) and fourth in scoring defense (14.0 points per game).
(23) Stanford at California (2.5, 48)
The Cardinal is coming off a controversial overtime loss to Notre Dame and hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown in two road losses this season. The Golden Bears have won back-to-back games after a disappointing 1-4 start and rank seventh in the nation at stopping the run at 89.3 yards per game. California racked up a season-high 318 rushing yards while beating Washington State last week and is averaging 195 per game, third-best in the Pac-12. These schools have played over the total in their last four meetings.
UNLV at (22) Boise State (-28.5, 54.5)
Boise State is ranked 22nd in the first BCS standings of the season, the highest placement of any non-BCS program. UNLV has lost three consecutive games after blowing a 21-point lead and losing to Nevada last week. The Rebels have lost 18 consecutive road games dating back to 2009. While the Broncos have won 46 consecutive games in October dating back to a 45-14 loss to Rice in 2001.
BYU at (5) Notre Dame (-13.5, 40)
Off to its first 6-0 start since 2002, Notre Dame is climbing the polls behind a defense that hasn’t allowed a touchdown in its last four games. The Irish rank first in the nation in red zone defense and they've limited each of its past five opponents to less than 300 total yards. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
(8) South Carolina at (4) Florida (-3.5, 41.5)
The Gamecocks had their 10-game win streak snapped in a 23-21 loss last week at Louisiana State in the second of three straight matchups against top-10 opponents. Gators QB Jeff Driskel threw for only 77 yards in last week's 31-17 win at Vanderbilt, but he ran for three touchdowns and 177 yards - eclipsing the school-record 166 yards rushing by a QB set by Tim Tebow. Florida ranks last in the SEC in passing and has accumulated a combined 138 yards through the air in the past two games. The Gators have played under the total in their last four home games.
South Florida at (14) Louisville (-6.5, 54)
Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater has completed almost 72 percent of his passes and RBs Senorise Perry and Jeremy Wright have combined for more than 1,000 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground so far this season. South Florida has not been strong defensively, averaging 30.3 points against during a four-game losing streak. The underdog has covered the spread in each of their last four meetings.
Michigan State at (25) Michigan (-10, 42.5)
Brady Hoke suffered his first loss as coach of the Wolverines against the Spartans last season, when QB Denard Robinson was harassed into a 9 for 24 passing performance. Robinson ended up throwing for 123 yards and one interception and was held to only 42 yards on the ground. The dual-threat QB has had similar struggles in 2012 against ranked teams Alabama and Notre Dame, combining for one touchdown and six interceptions in those two losses. The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
(20) Texas Tech at (21) TCU (1, 55)
The Horned Frogs' transition to the Big 12 has been eased by their strong defense, which leads the league in scoring (14.5) and ranks third in total defense (300.8). The offense, however, has to adjust to the loss of QB Casey Pachall, who withdrew from the school after his arrest for drunken driving. Texas Tech ranks first in the Big 12 in total defense (243.0) and second in scoring defense (16.3). The Red Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
Colorado at (9) USC (-40.5, 57.5)
The Buffaloes, who play at No. 2 Oregon next week, have been outscored 93-31 in back-to-back home losses to Arizona State and UCLA and continue to struggle mightily in coach Jon Embree's second season. Colorado is last in the Pac-12 in scoring (20.8), scoring defense (41.3), total defense (494.2 yards) and pass defense (312.7). But the Trojans have only covered once in their last six games.
(12) Georgia at Kentucky (27.5, 58.5)
Georgia has had some extra time to think about its humbling 35-7 loss at South Carolina on Oct. 6 and should be well rested after coming off a bye week. The Wildcats, who are facing their fifth ranked team, are expected to start freshman Jalen Whitlow at QB for the third straight game as fellow freshman Patrick Towles recovers from a high ankle sprain. Kentucky has used four QBs so far this season and stands 113th in the nation in total offense. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Kentucky.
Kansas at (7) Oklahoma (-35, 57.5)
The Sooners blasted rival Texas last week and still believe they can make a run at the BCS Championship game with a strong back half of the season. Quarterback Landry Jones and the offense have been rolling, putting up 104 points over the last two games. The Jayhawks have dropped seven straight in the series and have lost 15 in a row on the road. But Kansas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in Oklahoma.
(3) Kansas State at (15) West Virginia (-2.5, 74)
West Virginia has allowed a whopping 157 points in three conference games and has surrendered 600-plus yards in two of its last three games overall. The Kansas State defense hasn’t allowed more than 21 points in a game but will certainly be challenged by QB Geno Smith and the high-flying Mountaineers offense. The Wildcats are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
(1) Alabama at Tennessee (20, 55.5)
The Crimson Tide used an overpowering ground game to steamroll Missouri 42-10 last week. Eddie Lacy rushed for a career-high 177 yards and three touchdowns on 18 carries and T.J. Yeldon piled up 144 yards and a pair of scores. Alabama rolled up a season-high 533 yards of total offense and once again received a dominating effort from its defense, which has allowed an average of 7.5 points and has held four opponents to 10 or fewer. The Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Tennessee.
Middle Tennessee at (16) Mississippi State (-19.5, 56)
The Bulldogs, off to their best start since beginning the 1999 season with eight straight wins, have scored at least 25 points in their first six games for the first time in the 113-year history of the football program. The Mississippi State defense has done a fine job at getting the ball back to the offense by forcing 18 turnovers – tied for the fourth-highest total in the country – and ranks in the top 20 nationally in interceptions and fumbles recovered. The Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
(18) Cincinnati at Toledo (7, 64.5)
Cincinnati has cruised to a 5-0 mark with a near 25-point average margin of victory. The Bearcats have scored 101 points in their last two games and against a porous Rockets defense Saturday night; QB Munchie Legaux and Co. could be in for another high-scoring performance. The Rockets are tied for 30th in the nation with 36.4 points per game - chalking up 50-plus in each of their last two contests. The over is 5-0 in Toledo’s last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
(10) FSU at Miami (20.5, 56.5)
Florida State bounced back from its lone loss by punishing Boston College 51-7. The defense, led by senior end Bjoern Werner, is allowing an average of 11.4 points - the fourth-best mark in the nation. Miami has gotten crushed by a combined 77 points in its two previous games against ranked opponents and is coming off a home loss to North Carolina. Only one of the last 10 meetings (a 45-17 Florida State victory in Miami in 2010) has been decided by more than one touchdown.
Utah at (11) Oregon State (-10.5, 47)
The No. 11 Beavers, 3-0 in conference play for the first time since 1968, have lost four of their last five against the Utes. Utah is trying to avoid starting 0-4 in the Pac-12 for the second straight year, though. Sean Mannion, the second-ranked QB in the Pac-12, remains sidelined after undergoing minor knee surgery last week. Cody Vaz will start for a second consecutive contest for Oregon State. He threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s victory against Brigham Young and was not intercepted. The Beavers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
If you're looking to get some action down but only have a few minutes to handicap, let our Top-25 cheat sheet help you out. We grab the best quick-hitting betting info on each of the Top 25 matchups with odds available in Week 8 of the season:
(17) Rutgers at Temple (5.5, 41)
The Scarlet Knights can win seven straight to start a season for only the third time since 1976 and the fifth time in the program’s 143 years. Rutgers is only allowing 11.5 points per contest and has held opponents to only 60.8 yards rushing. The Scarlet Knights have outscored opponents 48-3 in the third quarter and have covered the spread in their last four contests.
Virginia Tech at (13) Clemson (-8.5, 61.5)
Virginia Tech travels to No. 13 Clemson on Saturday for a rematch of last year's ACC championship. The Hokies have enjoyed going on the road in ACC play, producing a 27-6 mark since joining the league in 2004. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said all the players on his injury report are expected to play against Virginia Tech after getting additional rest from the bye week – WR Martavis Bryant (groin), RB D.J. Howard (shoulder), TE Brandon Ford (ankle) and LB Lateek Townsend (thigh). The Tigers have covered the spread in their last four conference games.
(6) LSU at (19) Texas A&M (3.5, 52)
Freshman QB Johnny Manziel has led the Aggies to an SEC-best 47 points and 543.7 total yards per game but will be tested by LSU's dominant defense. The Tigers rank second in the conference in total defense (219.6 yards per game) and fourth in scoring defense (14.0 points per game).
(23) Stanford at California (2.5, 48)
The Cardinal is coming off a controversial overtime loss to Notre Dame and hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown in two road losses this season. The Golden Bears have won back-to-back games after a disappointing 1-4 start and rank seventh in the nation at stopping the run at 89.3 yards per game. California racked up a season-high 318 rushing yards while beating Washington State last week and is averaging 195 per game, third-best in the Pac-12. These schools have played over the total in their last four meetings.
UNLV at (22) Boise State (-28.5, 54.5)
Boise State is ranked 22nd in the first BCS standings of the season, the highest placement of any non-BCS program. UNLV has lost three consecutive games after blowing a 21-point lead and losing to Nevada last week. The Rebels have lost 18 consecutive road games dating back to 2009. While the Broncos have won 46 consecutive games in October dating back to a 45-14 loss to Rice in 2001.
BYU at (5) Notre Dame (-13.5, 40)
Off to its first 6-0 start since 2002, Notre Dame is climbing the polls behind a defense that hasn’t allowed a touchdown in its last four games. The Irish rank first in the nation in red zone defense and they've limited each of its past five opponents to less than 300 total yards. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
(8) South Carolina at (4) Florida (-3.5, 41.5)
The Gamecocks had their 10-game win streak snapped in a 23-21 loss last week at Louisiana State in the second of three straight matchups against top-10 opponents. Gators QB Jeff Driskel threw for only 77 yards in last week's 31-17 win at Vanderbilt, but he ran for three touchdowns and 177 yards - eclipsing the school-record 166 yards rushing by a QB set by Tim Tebow. Florida ranks last in the SEC in passing and has accumulated a combined 138 yards through the air in the past two games. The Gators have played under the total in their last four home games.
South Florida at (14) Louisville (-6.5, 54)
Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater has completed almost 72 percent of his passes and RBs Senorise Perry and Jeremy Wright have combined for more than 1,000 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground so far this season. South Florida has not been strong defensively, averaging 30.3 points against during a four-game losing streak. The underdog has covered the spread in each of their last four meetings.
Michigan State at (25) Michigan (-10, 42.5)
Brady Hoke suffered his first loss as coach of the Wolverines against the Spartans last season, when QB Denard Robinson was harassed into a 9 for 24 passing performance. Robinson ended up throwing for 123 yards and one interception and was held to only 42 yards on the ground. The dual-threat QB has had similar struggles in 2012 against ranked teams Alabama and Notre Dame, combining for one touchdown and six interceptions in those two losses. The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
(20) Texas Tech at (21) TCU (1, 55)
The Horned Frogs' transition to the Big 12 has been eased by their strong defense, which leads the league in scoring (14.5) and ranks third in total defense (300.8). The offense, however, has to adjust to the loss of QB Casey Pachall, who withdrew from the school after his arrest for drunken driving. Texas Tech ranks first in the Big 12 in total defense (243.0) and second in scoring defense (16.3). The Red Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
Colorado at (9) USC (-40.5, 57.5)
The Buffaloes, who play at No. 2 Oregon next week, have been outscored 93-31 in back-to-back home losses to Arizona State and UCLA and continue to struggle mightily in coach Jon Embree's second season. Colorado is last in the Pac-12 in scoring (20.8), scoring defense (41.3), total defense (494.2 yards) and pass defense (312.7). But the Trojans have only covered once in their last six games.
(12) Georgia at Kentucky (27.5, 58.5)
Georgia has had some extra time to think about its humbling 35-7 loss at South Carolina on Oct. 6 and should be well rested after coming off a bye week. The Wildcats, who are facing their fifth ranked team, are expected to start freshman Jalen Whitlow at QB for the third straight game as fellow freshman Patrick Towles recovers from a high ankle sprain. Kentucky has used four QBs so far this season and stands 113th in the nation in total offense. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Kentucky.
Kansas at (7) Oklahoma (-35, 57.5)
The Sooners blasted rival Texas last week and still believe they can make a run at the BCS Championship game with a strong back half of the season. Quarterback Landry Jones and the offense have been rolling, putting up 104 points over the last two games. The Jayhawks have dropped seven straight in the series and have lost 15 in a row on the road. But Kansas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in Oklahoma.
(3) Kansas State at (15) West Virginia (-2.5, 74)
West Virginia has allowed a whopping 157 points in three conference games and has surrendered 600-plus yards in two of its last three games overall. The Kansas State defense hasn’t allowed more than 21 points in a game but will certainly be challenged by QB Geno Smith and the high-flying Mountaineers offense. The Wildcats are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
(1) Alabama at Tennessee (20, 55.5)
The Crimson Tide used an overpowering ground game to steamroll Missouri 42-10 last week. Eddie Lacy rushed for a career-high 177 yards and three touchdowns on 18 carries and T.J. Yeldon piled up 144 yards and a pair of scores. Alabama rolled up a season-high 533 yards of total offense and once again received a dominating effort from its defense, which has allowed an average of 7.5 points and has held four opponents to 10 or fewer. The Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Tennessee.
Middle Tennessee at (16) Mississippi State (-19.5, 56)
The Bulldogs, off to their best start since beginning the 1999 season with eight straight wins, have scored at least 25 points in their first six games for the first time in the 113-year history of the football program. The Mississippi State defense has done a fine job at getting the ball back to the offense by forcing 18 turnovers – tied for the fourth-highest total in the country – and ranks in the top 20 nationally in interceptions and fumbles recovered. The Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
(18) Cincinnati at Toledo (7, 64.5)
Cincinnati has cruised to a 5-0 mark with a near 25-point average margin of victory. The Bearcats have scored 101 points in their last two games and against a porous Rockets defense Saturday night; QB Munchie Legaux and Co. could be in for another high-scoring performance. The Rockets are tied for 30th in the nation with 36.4 points per game - chalking up 50-plus in each of their last two contests. The over is 5-0 in Toledo’s last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
(10) FSU at Miami (20.5, 56.5)
Florida State bounced back from its lone loss by punishing Boston College 51-7. The defense, led by senior end Bjoern Werner, is allowing an average of 11.4 points - the fourth-best mark in the nation. Miami has gotten crushed by a combined 77 points in its two previous games against ranked opponents and is coming off a home loss to North Carolina. Only one of the last 10 meetings (a 45-17 Florida State victory in Miami in 2010) has been decided by more than one touchdown.
Utah at (11) Oregon State (-10.5, 47)
The No. 11 Beavers, 3-0 in conference play for the first time since 1968, have lost four of their last five against the Utes. Utah is trying to avoid starting 0-4 in the Pac-12 for the second straight year, though. Sean Mannion, the second-ranked QB in the Pac-12, remains sidelined after undergoing minor knee surgery last week. Cody Vaz will start for a second consecutive contest for Oregon State. He threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s victory against Brigham Young and was not intercepted. The Beavers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
NCAAF Top 5: Best Underdog Bets in College Football
Blindly betting underdogs in the pro ranks would have you making as much as a Miami recruit. But wonder dogs aren’t just reserved for the big boys who play on Sundays.
There are plenty of live underdogs at the NCAA level. Here are five programs that put up a serious fight when oddsmakers hand them the points:
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS, 4-0 ATS as underdogs)
We highlighted the Hilltoppers' remarkable ATS run last week and WKU came through with another payday, defeating Troy 31-26 as a 1-point pup for its 15th straight cover going back to last season. That marked the 11th time during that span and the fourth time this season Western Kentucky has covered as the underdog. However, this weekend, WKU is a 3.5-point home favorite hosting UL Monroe, which has picked up three of its five ATS wins as an underdog.
Utah State Aggies (5-2 SU, 6-0-1 ATS, 4-0 ATS as underdogs)
The Aggies are a program that has a taste for upsets, like its triumph over rival Utah as a 7-point underdog back in September. The Aggies came away with ATS wins as pups in their last two contests - at BYU and at San Jose State - but they trade in that role for a spot as huge faves, giving 30.5 points to lowly New Mexico State this weekend.
Oregon State Beavers (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-0 ATS as underdogs)
Pac-12 bettors have “Beaver Fever” and they have it bad - especially when OSU is taking the points. The Beavers have knocked off some notables, defeating Wisconsin, UCLA and BYU to start the schedule. In fact, in the only game in which Oregon State was favored (-15.5 vs. Washington State), it failed to cover by just 2.5 points in a 19-6 win. The Beavers are back in the favorites seat Saturday, giving 10 points to Utah.
Florida Atlantic Owls (1-5 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-1 ATS as underdogs)
OK, now we’re getting down to the nitty-gritty. The Owls have only one win on the season, and that barely happened in a 7-3 barfer over FCS Wagner. That was also the only game in which FAU was tabbed as the chalk. Since then, it’s been getting mountains of points from oddsmakers, covering as a 41.5-point pup at Georgia and as a 47-point dog at Alabama. The Owls try to make it five ATS wins in a row while getting 3.5 points at South Alabama this week – another 1-5 bottom feeder.
Wyoming Cowboys (1-5 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-0 ATS as underdogs)
Despite a 1-5 record, the Cowboys have put up a good fight so far this season. (Those camo jerseys are pretty bad ass, too.) They’ve had three of those losses come by three points or fewer and have an average margin of defeat of just five points. That looks damn good when you consider Wyoming has been an underdog of 31, 2.5, 19.5 and 6.5 points this season. The Cowboys are getting 16.5 points at Fresno State Saturday.
Blindly betting underdogs in the pro ranks would have you making as much as a Miami recruit. But wonder dogs aren’t just reserved for the big boys who play on Sundays.
There are plenty of live underdogs at the NCAA level. Here are five programs that put up a serious fight when oddsmakers hand them the points:
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS, 4-0 ATS as underdogs)
We highlighted the Hilltoppers' remarkable ATS run last week and WKU came through with another payday, defeating Troy 31-26 as a 1-point pup for its 15th straight cover going back to last season. That marked the 11th time during that span and the fourth time this season Western Kentucky has covered as the underdog. However, this weekend, WKU is a 3.5-point home favorite hosting UL Monroe, which has picked up three of its five ATS wins as an underdog.
Utah State Aggies (5-2 SU, 6-0-1 ATS, 4-0 ATS as underdogs)
The Aggies are a program that has a taste for upsets, like its triumph over rival Utah as a 7-point underdog back in September. The Aggies came away with ATS wins as pups in their last two contests - at BYU and at San Jose State - but they trade in that role for a spot as huge faves, giving 30.5 points to lowly New Mexico State this weekend.
Oregon State Beavers (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-0 ATS as underdogs)
Pac-12 bettors have “Beaver Fever” and they have it bad - especially when OSU is taking the points. The Beavers have knocked off some notables, defeating Wisconsin, UCLA and BYU to start the schedule. In fact, in the only game in which Oregon State was favored (-15.5 vs. Washington State), it failed to cover by just 2.5 points in a 19-6 win. The Beavers are back in the favorites seat Saturday, giving 10 points to Utah.
Florida Atlantic Owls (1-5 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-1 ATS as underdogs)
OK, now we’re getting down to the nitty-gritty. The Owls have only one win on the season, and that barely happened in a 7-3 barfer over FCS Wagner. That was also the only game in which FAU was tabbed as the chalk. Since then, it’s been getting mountains of points from oddsmakers, covering as a 41.5-point pup at Georgia and as a 47-point dog at Alabama. The Owls try to make it five ATS wins in a row while getting 3.5 points at South Alabama this week – another 1-5 bottom feeder.
Wyoming Cowboys (1-5 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-0 ATS as underdogs)
Despite a 1-5 record, the Cowboys have put up a good fight so far this season. (Those camo jerseys are pretty bad ass, too.) They’ve had three of those losses come by three points or fewer and have an average margin of defeat of just five points. That looks damn good when you consider Wyoming has been an underdog of 31, 2.5, 19.5 and 6.5 points this season. The Cowboys are getting 16.5 points at Fresno State Saturday.
Canadian Bacon: CFL's Week 17 Betting Preview
With only three games remaining on the regular season schedule, the drive to the postseason continues for CFL teams in Week 17.
Montreal Alouettes at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-3.5, 53)
The Alouettes (9-7) are the only team in the East with a winning record after they avoided a third straight loss with a 24-12 victory over the Argos last week. Quarterback Anthony Calvillo has completed less than 54 percent of his pass attempts over the last five games, something that has happened only once during his previous 10 outings in 2012. The 19-year CFL veteran has looked mediocre at times this season and has voiced his frustration in dealings with the media over the last few weeks.
The Roughriders are one of the hottest teams in the league since the start of September, winning five of their last six games. However, Kory Sheets has cooled off as of late. The running back has scored just once in his last five games, which is a far cry from his efforts earlier in the campaign when he recorded at least one TD in five straight contests. The teams have played under the total in four of the last five meetings.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Calgary Stampeders (-7, 56)
The Tiger-Cats managed just three points through the first three quarters in front of their hometown fans, eventually leading to a 37-17 loss to British Columbia last week. The Hamilton defense surrendered 476 yards to the Lions and was stuck on the field for just under 40 minutes in the contest, limiting the opportunities for the league’s best offensive unit (29.2 points per game) led by QB Henry Burris.
Calgary has already secured a spot in the playoffs, thanks to a 9-6 mark after it took out Winnipeg last week. Quarterback Kevin Glenn led the way for the Stampeders, converting 21 of 29 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns. The Stamps won the most recent battle with the Tiger-Cats, who are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with Calgary, by a score of 31-20 in August.
With only three games remaining on the regular season schedule, the drive to the postseason continues for CFL teams in Week 17.
Montreal Alouettes at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-3.5, 53)
The Alouettes (9-7) are the only team in the East with a winning record after they avoided a third straight loss with a 24-12 victory over the Argos last week. Quarterback Anthony Calvillo has completed less than 54 percent of his pass attempts over the last five games, something that has happened only once during his previous 10 outings in 2012. The 19-year CFL veteran has looked mediocre at times this season and has voiced his frustration in dealings with the media over the last few weeks.
The Roughriders are one of the hottest teams in the league since the start of September, winning five of their last six games. However, Kory Sheets has cooled off as of late. The running back has scored just once in his last five games, which is a far cry from his efforts earlier in the campaign when he recorded at least one TD in five straight contests. The teams have played under the total in four of the last five meetings.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Calgary Stampeders (-7, 56)
The Tiger-Cats managed just three points through the first three quarters in front of their hometown fans, eventually leading to a 37-17 loss to British Columbia last week. The Hamilton defense surrendered 476 yards to the Lions and was stuck on the field for just under 40 minutes in the contest, limiting the opportunities for the league’s best offensive unit (29.2 points per game) led by QB Henry Burris.
Calgary has already secured a spot in the playoffs, thanks to a 9-6 mark after it took out Winnipeg last week. Quarterback Kevin Glenn led the way for the Stampeders, converting 21 of 29 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns. The Stamps won the most recent battle with the Tiger-Cats, who are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with Calgary, by a score of 31-20 in August.
NCAA Football Trends & Angles - Week 8
It was a good week for our NCAA Football Trends & Angles for Week 7 as our qualifying plays went 5-3 ATS individually, and we had three angles with winning weeks against just one with a losing week, while the fifth angle had a 1-1 split.
We lead things off this week with an angle that had Week 7 off but that has been successful in the past by picking only underdogs. That should come as no big surprise to those of you that have followed us in the past, as the vast majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature, with many of them will point you to live underdogs and live 'unders'.
All of our season-long trends this season go back to 2005, as we feel that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games obsolete.
So here are our NCAA Football Trends & Angles for Week 8, with all records being for the last seven full seasons since 2005 plus the first seven weeks of this season.
Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last three games
(116-77-1, 60.1% ATS): This is an oldie but goodie that we have used in one form or another in every sport that we do. Teams that have been underdogs in their last three games in a row are oftentimes not very good football teams, and when these clubs are suddenly cast in the favored role, they have usually wilted under the pressure of now being expected to win. This angle was a perfect 2-0 when it last occurred in Week 6. Qualifiers: Florida Atlantic +3½, Marshall +2½ and Auburn +7.
Bet on any division road underdog coming off of a straight up loss by 20 points or more (79-54-2, 59.4% ATS): This angle is similar to one we use in professional sports. Now on the surface, one may not expect this to work as well in college with the talent disparity between teams being so much greater, but keep in mind that even losing teams are more familiar with division foes than any other team on the schedule, making it easier to improve from the previous week, plus oddsmakers are able to pad the spreads on these teams when they are road underdogs as they receive such minimal action. This angle split 1-1 in Week 7. Qualifiers: Colorado +40½ and Purdue +19½.
Bet against any conference home favorite coming off of 2 home games (105-76-7, 58.0% ATS): The winning percentage of this angle may not be as big as some of our others, but it has still made a very large profit due to the nice volume. Some may think that playing a third straight home game is an advantage, and while that may be true on the field, it has not been at the betting windows as books are aware that these teams have an advantage and bettors like to bet on them, so they are able to pad these lines. Also, if the third straight home game is a conference game, the home team is usually facing a team that is familiar with them. This angle went a perfect 2-0 in Week 7.
Qualifier: Idaho +30½ over Louisiana Tech.
Play on any road team coming off of four or more straight home games (56-33-2, 62.9% ATS): Not many angles get more contrarian than this one, as conventional wisdom would suggest that teams that have been home for a long time would struggle when they finally hit the road. The thing is though that like all general theories like that, the books are ahead of the players, and they have shaded the lines so much in this situation knowing that most people will back the home team that it is the road teams that have practically served as ATM machines since 2005. This angle won its only play in Week 7.
Qualifiers: Cincinnati -7½, Purdue +19½ and UCF -23½.
Play on any divisional road underdog coming off of a road loss (92-61-1, 60.1% ATS): This one is also very similar to an NFL angle that we often referenced, as books have been over-adjusting against teams playing their second straight road game, especially coming off of a loss and when the second game is against a divisional opponent that teams are very familiar with. This angle was a losing 0-2 in Week 7.
Qualifier: South Carolina +3½.
It was a good week for our NCAA Football Trends & Angles for Week 7 as our qualifying plays went 5-3 ATS individually, and we had three angles with winning weeks against just one with a losing week, while the fifth angle had a 1-1 split.
We lead things off this week with an angle that had Week 7 off but that has been successful in the past by picking only underdogs. That should come as no big surprise to those of you that have followed us in the past, as the vast majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature, with many of them will point you to live underdogs and live 'unders'.
All of our season-long trends this season go back to 2005, as we feel that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games obsolete.
So here are our NCAA Football Trends & Angles for Week 8, with all records being for the last seven full seasons since 2005 plus the first seven weeks of this season.
Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last three games
(116-77-1, 60.1% ATS): This is an oldie but goodie that we have used in one form or another in every sport that we do. Teams that have been underdogs in their last three games in a row are oftentimes not very good football teams, and when these clubs are suddenly cast in the favored role, they have usually wilted under the pressure of now being expected to win. This angle was a perfect 2-0 when it last occurred in Week 6. Qualifiers: Florida Atlantic +3½, Marshall +2½ and Auburn +7.
Bet on any division road underdog coming off of a straight up loss by 20 points or more (79-54-2, 59.4% ATS): This angle is similar to one we use in professional sports. Now on the surface, one may not expect this to work as well in college with the talent disparity between teams being so much greater, but keep in mind that even losing teams are more familiar with division foes than any other team on the schedule, making it easier to improve from the previous week, plus oddsmakers are able to pad the spreads on these teams when they are road underdogs as they receive such minimal action. This angle split 1-1 in Week 7. Qualifiers: Colorado +40½ and Purdue +19½.
Bet against any conference home favorite coming off of 2 home games (105-76-7, 58.0% ATS): The winning percentage of this angle may not be as big as some of our others, but it has still made a very large profit due to the nice volume. Some may think that playing a third straight home game is an advantage, and while that may be true on the field, it has not been at the betting windows as books are aware that these teams have an advantage and bettors like to bet on them, so they are able to pad these lines. Also, if the third straight home game is a conference game, the home team is usually facing a team that is familiar with them. This angle went a perfect 2-0 in Week 7.
Qualifier: Idaho +30½ over Louisiana Tech.
Play on any road team coming off of four or more straight home games (56-33-2, 62.9% ATS): Not many angles get more contrarian than this one, as conventional wisdom would suggest that teams that have been home for a long time would struggle when they finally hit the road. The thing is though that like all general theories like that, the books are ahead of the players, and they have shaded the lines so much in this situation knowing that most people will back the home team that it is the road teams that have practically served as ATM machines since 2005. This angle won its only play in Week 7.
Qualifiers: Cincinnati -7½, Purdue +19½ and UCF -23½.
Play on any divisional road underdog coming off of a road loss (92-61-1, 60.1% ATS): This one is also very similar to an NFL angle that we often referenced, as books have been over-adjusting against teams playing their second straight road game, especially coming off of a loss and when the second game is against a divisional opponent that teams are very familiar with. This angle was a losing 0-2 in Week 7.
Qualifier: South Carolina +3½.
Handicapping Kings
JIMMY
(KINGS RANSOM- 2 UNIT PLAY)- LOUISIANA TECH -30.5 -103 IDAHO (7PM)
OKLAHOMA ST -14.5 -102 IOWA ST (12PM)
FLORIDA -3.5 -105 SOUTH CAROLINA (330PM)
NEBRASKA/NORTHWESTERN OVER 61 -105 (330PM)
MARC
(LIGHTS OUT- 2 UNIT PLAY)- OHIO ST/PURDUE OVER 62 -105 (12PM)
BYU/NOTRE DAME UNDER 40 -105 (330PM)
TEXAS TECH/TCU OVER 54.5 -109 (330PM)
RICE/TULSA OVER 64 -102 (330PM)
GOODFELLAS
(CIGAR GAME- 2 UNIT PLAY) LSU -3 -110 TEXAS AM (12PM)
VIRGINA TECH +8 -105 CLEMSON (12PM)
ALABAMA -20 -106 TENNESSEE (7PM)
MISSISSIPPI ST -18.5 -112 MIDDLE TENN ST (7PM)
JIMMY
(KINGS RANSOM- 2 UNIT PLAY)- LOUISIANA TECH -30.5 -103 IDAHO (7PM)
OKLAHOMA ST -14.5 -102 IOWA ST (12PM)
FLORIDA -3.5 -105 SOUTH CAROLINA (330PM)
NEBRASKA/NORTHWESTERN OVER 61 -105 (330PM)
MARC
(LIGHTS OUT- 2 UNIT PLAY)- OHIO ST/PURDUE OVER 62 -105 (12PM)
BYU/NOTRE DAME UNDER 40 -105 (330PM)
TEXAS TECH/TCU OVER 54.5 -109 (330PM)
RICE/TULSA OVER 64 -102 (330PM)
GOODFELLAS
(CIGAR GAME- 2 UNIT PLAY) LSU -3 -110 TEXAS AM (12PM)
VIRGINA TECH +8 -105 CLEMSON (12PM)
ALABAMA -20 -106 TENNESSEE (7PM)
MISSISSIPPI ST -18.5 -112 MIDDLE TENN ST (7PM)
StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
CFB FLA INTERNATIONAL at TROY
Play Against - Any team (FLA INTERNATIONAL) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games.
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
2-3 this year. ( 40.0% -1.3 units )
CFB BOWLING GREEN at MASSACHUSETTS
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (BOWLING GREEN) after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.
21-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.4% 0.0 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% 0.0 units )
CFB PURDUE at OHIO ST
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 28.5 and 31.5 solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game.
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% 20.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )
CFB FLA INTERNATIONAL at TROY
Play Against - Any team (FLA INTERNATIONAL) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games.
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
2-3 this year. ( 40.0% -1.3 units )
CFB BOWLING GREEN at MASSACHUSETTS
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (BOWLING GREEN) after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.
21-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.4% 0.0 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% 0.0 units )
CFB PURDUE at OHIO ST
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 28.5 and 31.5 solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game.
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% 20.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )
I just bought these from ATS
Hope they help !!!
October 20, 2012:
College Football Special for Saturday:
Product Name Quantity
*College Football Saturday Night Smash - 3 Big Selections: Kansas St. vs. West Virginia, Alabama vs. Tennessee & Baylor vs. Texas - 1.00 $25.00
KANSAS ST. +3 OV WEST VIRGINIA
TENNESSEE +20 OV ALABAMA
TEXAS -8.5 OV BAYLOR
Hope they help !!!
October 20, 2012:
College Football Special for Saturday:
Product Name Quantity
*College Football Saturday Night Smash - 3 Big Selections: Kansas St. vs. West Virginia, Alabama vs. Tennessee & Baylor vs. Texas - 1.00 $25.00
KANSAS ST. +3 OV WEST VIRGINIA
TENNESSEE +20 OV ALABAMA
TEXAS -8.5 OV BAYLOR
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