David Banks
LSU at Texas A&M, Saturday, Oct. 20, 12:00 ET (ESPN)
LSU dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in a 23-21 win over South Carolina last week in a game that had no business being that close, as two South Carolina touchdowns were set up by a long interception return and a long punt return. The fact of the matter is that the Tigers outgained the Gamecocks by almost 200 yards, and LSU still controls its own destiny as it will go to the BCS Championship Game if it wins out. Texas A&M almost blew a 27-0 lead and held on for dear life to beat a Louisiana Tech team it should have manhandled 59-57, allowing 615 total yards in the process. Texas A&M is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. teams with winning records.
LEAN: LSU
South Carolina at Florida, Saturday, Oct. 20, 3:30 ET (CBS)
South Carolina got manhandled physically by LSU in a deceptively close 23-21 loss at Baton Rouge, and it now must face another elite defense at an insanely difficult venue in Gainesville. Florida is undefeated at 6-0 and is ranked second in the country on the initial BCS Rankings. The Gators rushed for 326 yards in a potentially treacherous scheduling spot at Vanderbilt last week after rushing for 176 yards vs. the fantastic LSU defense the previous week. They now get to run on a South Carolina defense that surrendered 258 rushing yards to that same LSU team last week. Perhaps more telling is that the Florida defense held LSU to 42 rushing yards the previous week. The home teams have gone 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
LEAN: SOUTH CAROLINA
BYU at Notre Dame, Saturday, Oct. 20, 3:30 ET (NBC)
This game pits two of the best defenses in the country, as Notre Dame ranks second in scoring defense at 8.7 points per game and 11th in total defense at 287.0 total yards, while BYU ranks seventh in scoring defense at 13.6 points and sixth in total defense at 260.9 yards. Both teams have been erratic offensively too, as Notre Dame has only exceeded 20 points twice and both of those occasions came vs. poor defenses (Miami-Florida and Navy), while BYU ranks 71st in the country in total offense. The 6-0 Irish barely avoided their first loss last week as they beat Stanford 20-13 in overtime, although Notre Dame did not allow an offensive touchdown as the Cardinal scored on a defensive fumble recovery in the end zone. BYU had its worst defensive performance of the season in a 42-24 loss to Oregon State, but look for a return to normal vs. the more pedestrian Irish offense. The 'under' is 18-5 in the last 23 Notre Dame home games.
LEAN: NOTRE DAME
Nebraska at Northwestern, Saturday, Oct. 20, 3:30 ET (ESPN2)
Northwestern is a home underdog here despite being 6-1 overall and 4-0 straight up at home, and the Wildcats' spread offense has been in vintage form with running quarterback Kain Colter under center. Northwestern is averaging 407.9 total yards per game including 228.4 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per carry, and Colter was even a perfect 10-for-10 passing the ball in a 21-13 road win at Minnesota last week. Nebraska is 4-2 overall but 0-2 on the road after a 63-38 annihilation absorbed at the hands of Ohio State last game in Columbus where the Cornhuskers permitted 371 rushing yards. Remember also that Northwestern travelled to Lincoln last season and upset the Huskers 28-25 thanks to 207 rushing yards. Nebraska is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. teams with winning records.
LEAN: OVER
Utah at Oregon State, Saturday, Oct. 20, 9:00 ET (ESPN2)
Oregon State is attempting to go to 6-0 for the first time in 105 years, but the Beavers will attempt to do so without starting quarterback Sean Mannion, who could be out for quite a while with a knee injury. OSU has been winning with a one dimensional passing offense while averaging only 3.3 yards per rushing attempt, which can be troublesome vs. a Utah defense that held UCLA quarterback to 183 passing yards in a covering 21-14 road loss last week. Meanwhile, the Utes' true freshman quarterback Travis Wilson has kept progressing since taking over for the injured Jordan Wynn as he had 220 passing yards vs. the Bruins, and he will be throwing against a 116th ranked Oregon State passing defense allowing 291.8 passing yards per game. Oregon State is on an 0-5 ATS run as a home favorite.
LEAN: OVER
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, Oct. 21, 1:00 ET (CBS)
The Browns are coming off of their first win of the season 34-24 over the Cincinnati Bengals, although their spirits were dampened somewhat when running back Trent Richardson left the game with a rib injury. Montario Hardesty did rush for 56 yards on 15 carries in relief though, and more importantly, Richardson's injury was not deemed to be serious after the game. The Colts just allowed 161 yards to Shonn Greene of the Jets after he had been averaging less than 3.0 yards per carry entering last week's game. Cleveland can run the ball here vs. a Colts rushing defense allowing 5.0 yards per carry, while the Browns' defense can now defend Andrew Luck better with shutdown cornerback Joe Haden back in the lineup after serving a four-week suspension. The road teams are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings.
LEAN: INDIANAPOLIS
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Ravens, Sunday, Oct. 21, 1:00 ET (CBS)
The Texans suffered their first loss of the season to the Green Bay Packers Sunday night, and the main reason was their great running game was rendered moot when Green Bay opened up a big lead. Baltimore was probably taking notes as the Ravens have gone to a no-huddle offense this year that is capable of scoring in bunches. The Ravens rank ninth in the NFL in scoring at 26.8 points per game and also ninth in total offense at 385.0 yards per contest. More importantly they have achieved balance with Ray Rice rushing for 482 yards on 5.0 yards per carry. As for the Texans, it is important that they establish Arian Foster and the running game early, although the Baltimore run defense is allowing only 3.9 yards per carry. The road teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
LEAN: OVER
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers, Sunday, Oct. 21, 1:00 ET (FOX)
The Cowboys gave it their all coming out of their bye week in Baltimore last Sunday, but they came up just short in a 31-29 defeat to the Ravens, failing on a two-point conversion after scoring a touchdown with 32 seconds remaining. That drops Dallas to 2-3 on the season, and the Cowboys can ill afford to fall to 2-4 if they want to have any hope of catching the red-hot New York Giants. They now get a chance to exploit a 23rd ranked Carolina total defense that is allowing 377.0 total yards per game. The Panthers are 1-4 as they come off their bye, and Cam Newton has regressed in his second season, throwing five interceptions and just four touchdown passes, and even with two weeks to prepare, he does not figure to have much success vs. the great Dallas cornerback tandem of Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr. Newton completed only 12-of-29 passes for 141 yards vs. Seattle last game, and Carolina is just 1-4 ATS the last five times they passed for less than 150 yards in the previous game.
LEAN: DALLAS
New York Jets at New England Patriots, Sunday, Oct. 21, 4:25 ET (CBS)
The Patriots unexpectedly fell to 3-3 when they blew a late lead in a 24-23 loss to the Seattle Seahawks last week, thus wasting a 395-yards passing performance by Tom Brady vs. a Seahawk team that still ranks fourth in the NFL in total defense. After that performance in one of the loudest venues in the league, Brady must be looking forward to taking out his frustrations vs. a Jets' defense that is not nearly as formidable as it once was with Darrelle Revis out for the year. The Jets are coming off of a rare 35-9 laugher over the Colts, who seemed emotionally drained after an upset win over the Packers the previous week after learning that Head Coach Chuck Pagano has leukemia. Do not expect running back Shonn Greene to duplicate his 161-yard rushing performance here. Tom Brady is 18-8 ATS when coming off a loss in the last 26 occasions.
LEAN: NEW ENGLAND
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders, Sunday, Oct. 21, 4:25 ET (CBS)
The Raiders nearly shocked the world last week by knocking off the undefeated Atlanta Falcons, but falling just short 23-20 on a 55-yard Matt Bryant field goal with one second remaining has to be deflating. The loss drops Oakland to 1-4, and the Raiders may have a tough time getting back up for the perceived weaker opponent. And make no mistake, the Jaguars are a week opponent that is also 1-4 and is coming off of a 41-3 loss to the Chicago Bears. That was two weeks ago, so perhaps the bye week last week gave Jacksonville time to prepare a game plan to figure out how to best use stud running back Maurice Jones-Drew vs. a Raiders team that ranks 24th in total defense. Almost unbelievably, the Raiders are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. teams with losing records.
LEAN: OVER
