Alabama, Florida on upset alert
Evaluating upset odds and making picks for Week 8's biggest games
Originally Published: October 18, 2012
By Will Harris | ESPN Insider
Getty ImagesThe Gators and Crimson Tide should both be challenged this weekend.
Every week during the season, Will Harris will check with the computers (using Insider'sPickCenter) and wiseguys to evaluate the upset possibilities in college football's most compelling games and give his picks for who will come out on top.
The first BCS standings are out, and none of the top eight teams have gimmes this week. The SEC currently accounts for six of the top 12, though we still expect LSU and Florida to be much farther down the rankings by season's end.
The Tigers surprised us with a solid win over South Carolina, but Upset Watch managed a 7-3 week to move to 40-29 on the season. In Week 8 we'll look at what should be Alabama's toughest test, along with the rest of the marquee games and a pair of live dogs that have a chance for statement wins over in-state heavyweights.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators
Florida is favored by 3.5 points
TeamRankings win odds for South Carolina: 37 percent
This is a battle of two teams that have covered every game since the opener. We expected Carolina to win last week, but the Gamecocks played their worst game since Week 1, Tiger Stadium roared and Les Miles reminded us why he's an elite preparer of teams. Still, our overall view of the SEC hasn't really changed since the offseason. The Tigers probably have another inspired performance or two in them, but LSU has all the problems we saw in the summer and still looks like a 9-4 team. And South Carolina still looks like the East favorite and one of the most complete teams in the country.
Florida's improvement from 2011 has been evident across the board, from the head coach on down. Offensive coordinator Brent Pease in particular has been a difference-maker. Still, the Gators have a lot of ground to make up against the East's best, and must yet prove that they can do what well-coached teams do: Get better as the season goes along and win in November.
While our nutshell view still sees Florida clocking in behind Carolina and Georgia in the East pecking order, we have to temper it until we see what the Gamecocks' roster looks like this week. Injuries and a flu bug have led to missed practice time for a dozen key players this week, including Marcus Lattimore, Jadeveon Clowney, Bruce Ellington and Ace Sanders.
We prefer Carolina in this spot with or without some of those guys, but for us to wade in with any degree of confidence will require better team health on Saturday than this bunch was sporting on Wednesday.
The pick: South Carolina 20, Florida 16
Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers
Alabama is favored by 20.5 points
TeamRankings win odds for Tennessee: 10 percent
[+] EnlargeJim Brown/US PresswireTyler Bray and the Vols' offense could challenge Alabama.
We've recommended laying three touchdowns on the road with Alabama twice this year, but this is a completely different spot. From a still-jelling Michigan to a bubble-burst Arkansas to the reeling M.A.S.H. unit that was Missouri, the Tide's previous opponents have not shown up at their best.
This Alabama team is probably the nation's best, but not as dominant as last year's was by season's end. That applies especially to the defense. This year's defense has seen no drop-off in the numbers so far, and it is indeed still an elite stop unit capable of some shutdown performances, but it's not the utterly impenetrable once-in-a-generation group the Tide fielded last year. Michigan's attack may be better here in Week 8, but so far Alabama has not seen an offense anywhere near as good as what it will face in Knoxville.
We also expect a strong effort from Tennessee's defense. Exchanging Justin Wilcox for Sal Sunseri has been just as much of a disaster for Tennessee as swapping Charlie Weis for Brent Pease has been a jackpot at Florida. We have no optimism about this unit long-term, but a fierce home crowd and the right mentality can go a long way on rush defense, and anybody thinking that Tennessee is about to just lay down in this game is fooling themselves. Even if the defense were run over, Tennessee backers will have the comfort of an offense with firepower and quick-strike potential on special teams.
We'd like it better if the Volunteers had won in Starkville last week, and we'd be much more comfortable if Derek Dooley were on the field instead of the box, but this is still way too much weight to give a Tennessee team capable of providing Alabama's first test of the season.
The pick: Alabama 27, Tennessee 17
Cincinnati Bearcats at Toledo Rockets
Cincinnati is favored by seven points
TeamRankings win odds for Toledo: 30 percent
Toledo is one of four top-70 teams in the MAC West. The Rockets lost all-purpose superstar Eric Page to graduation, but are still explosive behind triplets Terrance Owens, Bernard Reedy and David Fluellen. This is a high-powered attack that will hit some long gainers on an aggressive Cincinnati defense susceptible to the big play.
The Bearcats likewise bring an explosive assault that involves a host of playmakers, but are capable of some self-inflicted errors. The chemistry and collective mentality of this team is still not quite where the coaches want it. It wouldn't surprise us to see Cincinnati struggle to handle its success. The Bearcats have a blowout win over a MAC school already, a big game with Louisville on deck and accolades commensurate with the team's record and ranking rolling in.
Toledo has had some big-time performances in the past, and logged near-misses against Ohio State last season and Arizona in this year's opener. The Glass Bowl is a tough place to play, especially at night, and this is Cincinnati's first true road game of the season.
The pick: Toledo 38, Cincinnati 35
Ball State Cardinals (-3) at Central Michigan Chippewas
Ball State is favored by three points
TeamRankings win odds for Central Michigan: 41 percent
Insider PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
We've championed Pete Lembo's rising MAC power all season, and this looks like one of the best spots of the year for the Cardinals. The offense leads the MAC at 483 yards and a whopping 29 first downs per game, and has found the only thing it lacked in downfield threatWillie Snead. The defense has gained confidence with two solid outings against high-powered teams. And the entire team is feeling good after snapping a two-game skid with an overtime win.
Central Michigan is the anti-Ball State: a poorly coached team that gets all the little details wrong at the wrong times, and beats itself with penalties, turnovers and special teams gaffes. The Chippewas have talent at the skill positions and some offensive firepower, but this is a failing organization that needs more than a field goal from a rising program ready to play its best game of the season.
The pick: Ball State 49, Central Michigan 21
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-14) versus Boston College Eagles
Georgia Tech is favored by 14 points
TeamRankings win odds for Boston College: 19 percent
The Jackets have had an open date to adjust to defensive coordinator Al Groh's firing and the internal promotion of defensive backs coach Charles Kelly. Paul Johnson's appeal to his team was simply to start the season anew. With the turmoil, disappointment and attempt to refocus facing this team, it couldn't hope for a better matchup than a home date with reeling Boston College.
The Eagles are a train wreck right now, and while the offense has a little punch in the passing game, there's not much else going well. A coaching change is forthcoming, and the players know this is a lost season just as surely as they do in Fayetteville.
Georgia Tech has the makings of a solid team. The Jackets just went into the tank for a bit after losing two league games early and thinking they were out of the race already. That funk cost the team the MTSU game, but the squad that was leading Clemson by a point in the fourth quarter is more reflective of Tech's true abilities.
The pick: Georgia Tech 42, Boston College 20
Quick hitters
North Carolina Tar Heels (-10.5) at Duke Blue Devils: This is the best Duke team in two decades, and Carolina has a new coaching staff, yet the price is basically the same as it's been every year in this series. The Tar Heels think they can wear the Devils down with tempo and the size of their offensive line. We think this year's Duke team can take a punch and keep swinging.
Duke 34, North Carolina 31
LSU Tigers (-3.5) at Texas A&M Aggies: Johnny Manziel and the Aggies have exactly the kind of offense that can capitalize on a defense whose only weaknesses are likely to be that it is tired and undisciplined. Texas A&M is by no means a top-10 team and is still behind LSU in the overall pecking order, but this is a good spot for the host. We'll say the Aggies have a decent chance to win what should be a close game and find themselves crowned the SEC's new most overrated team Sunday morning.
Texas A&M 24, LSU 23
Navy Midshipmen (-3) versus Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana's offense has taken flight inKevin Wilson's second season, scoring 76 points the past two weeks against the Spartans and Buckeyes. Indiana is an improving team hungry for a win, and while the defense is one of the Big Ten's softest, we really like the way this unit has prepared for this game and would not be surprised to see it hold the Middies in check.
Indiana 41, Navy 27
West Virginia Mountaineers (-2.5) versus Kansas State Wildcats: Geno Smith and the Mountaineers won't have many offensive days like last Saturday, but it's hard to see the West Virginia defense slowing down the Powercat ground attack at all. Morgantown is going to be a tough locale for visiting Big 12 squads and there are certainly better spots than this one to back a terrific Kansas State squad, but the better team is getting points here.
Kansas State 48, West Virginia 45
Michigan Wolverines (-10) versus Michigan State Spartans
Sparty is looking for five straight series wins against the Wolverines for the first time ever, but the offense has struggled so badly that Mark Dantonio's crew finds itself as a double-digit home underdog this week. We think that's a little rich, especially for a defense that's been so successful slowing Denard Robinson the past two seasons.
Michigan 24, Michigan State 20
Will Harris writes about college football for ESPN Insider, including his Man vs. Machine Upset Picks column, which appears every Thursday. He has covered the sport for more than two decades and has been an analyst for ESPN.com since 2007.
