WUNDERDOG
Picks and Analysis
Game:Ohio State at Purdue (Saturday 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Ohio State -13.5 (-110)
The Buckeyes lost the battle of the stats last week in a big way against Wisconsin. They lost the first down battle 22-8 and were outgained by a 2-1 margin 368-184. They had the ball for just 17 minutes the entire game. Yet they were able to win the game 31-13. What did they do right? Looking at the numbers it is hard to understand how the Buckeyes won by 18. They did it with the No. 11 ranked defense that scored 14 points and special teams that scored on a 96-yard return. They were also very efficient, out-rushing the Badgers by a yard per carry and out-gaining them in the air by a yard per pass attempt. It proved the Buckeyes can win big even if their offense was not prolific. The Boilermakers are not a good football team, sitting at 1-5. They lost on the road to Minnesota last week by 15, in a game they should have been in. QB Joey Elliott will provide the Buckeyes defense with more opportunities as he has already completed nine to the wrong team. The Buckeyes' offense will finda lot more room than they did last week when they face a defense ranked No. 76 that is allowing over 30 points per game. Ohio State's offensive struggles last week do not overly concern me. They have scored 30+ points in five of six games this year (only team they didn't lay 30 on was USC). They have put up 900 yards of offense in their two road games. That's all well and good, but should they be a road favorite after that performance? Consider this! Road favorites that have 5+ returning starters that are coming off a really bad offensive performance (gained under 225 yards) have gone 28-3 ATS over the past fifteen years! On top of that, Ohio State is 9-1 ATS the past three seasons as road chalk. The Buckeyes are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 conference games, including 17-4 ATS as a road favorite. They have covered seven straight after a SU win. The Boilermakers are just 11-24-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.
This one is all Buckeyes.
Picks and Analysis
Game:Ohio State at Purdue (Saturday 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Ohio State -13.5 (-110)
The Buckeyes lost the battle of the stats last week in a big way against Wisconsin. They lost the first down battle 22-8 and were outgained by a 2-1 margin 368-184. They had the ball for just 17 minutes the entire game. Yet they were able to win the game 31-13. What did they do right? Looking at the numbers it is hard to understand how the Buckeyes won by 18. They did it with the No. 11 ranked defense that scored 14 points and special teams that scored on a 96-yard return. They were also very efficient, out-rushing the Badgers by a yard per carry and out-gaining them in the air by a yard per pass attempt. It proved the Buckeyes can win big even if their offense was not prolific. The Boilermakers are not a good football team, sitting at 1-5. They lost on the road to Minnesota last week by 15, in a game they should have been in. QB Joey Elliott will provide the Buckeyes defense with more opportunities as he has already completed nine to the wrong team. The Buckeyes' offense will finda lot more room than they did last week when they face a defense ranked No. 76 that is allowing over 30 points per game. Ohio State's offensive struggles last week do not overly concern me. They have scored 30+ points in five of six games this year (only team they didn't lay 30 on was USC). They have put up 900 yards of offense in their two road games. That's all well and good, but should they be a road favorite after that performance? Consider this! Road favorites that have 5+ returning starters that are coming off a really bad offensive performance (gained under 225 yards) have gone 28-3 ATS over the past fifteen years! On top of that, Ohio State is 9-1 ATS the past three seasons as road chalk. The Buckeyes are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 conference games, including 17-4 ATS as a road favorite. They have covered seven straight after a SU win. The Boilermakers are just 11-24-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.
This one is all Buckeyes.
PREMIUM MEMBERS SELECTIONS
12:00 Ohio St. -pts
12:00 Wisconson -pts.
3:30 Penn St -pts.
3:30 Florida - pts.
6:00 Vtech -pts.
7:30 Auburn - pts.
7:45 Scarolina +pts
9:15 Mizzu + pts.
MLB
7:55 NY Yankee's
8:05 Phil Phillies
David Banks not sure how good he is so play at your own risk.GL to all.
12:00 Ohio St. -pts
12:00 Wisconson -pts.
3:30 Penn St -pts.
3:30 Florida - pts.
6:00 Vtech -pts.
7:30 Auburn - pts.
7:45 Scarolina +pts
9:15 Mizzu + pts.
MLB
7:55 NY Yankee's
8:05 Phil Phillies
David Banks not sure how good he is so play at your own risk.GL to all.
Saturday NCAAF System Club Play- GC-
On Saturday the system club play is on Northern Illinios.Game 183 at 7:00 eastern. These plays now stand at 12-7 the last two years. What we want to do is play against certain home dogs like Toledo,that are off a 12 or more point loss as a home favorite of -3.5 or more,if they have a .666 or less win percentage. These home dogs are just 4-21 ats since 1980. Toledo comes in off a bad blow out loss at home to Western Michigan. Northern Illinois looks like they may be one of the better team in the MAC conference this year. They already own a nice Big 10 road win at Purdue,and played Wisconsin real tough in a 28-20 road loss. They smoked Toledo last year 38-7 and appear to be a more talented club this year. On Saturday I have a Double Power system Underdog game of the year. This big side play will win the game out right. There are 2 big systems in the game and a big 10-1 dominator angle. Also on the card is a Big 12 Power system that is 15-0 ats, and this weeks big Blowout play. The Blowout plays have gone 3-1 this year winning the last 2 weeks with Oregon and then Texas.Tech last week a 66-14 winner. I also have a 17-1 system beauty that plays against a team that is vastly over rated in tonight's game. All games go after 3:30 eastern this week. Tulsa on Wednesday,Cincy on Thursday and the Dodgers on Friday.On Saturday we stay hot. Take Northern Illinois as the system club play. bol GC-
On Saturday the system club play is on Northern Illinios.Game 183 at 7:00 eastern. These plays now stand at 12-7 the last two years. What we want to do is play against certain home dogs like Toledo,that are off a 12 or more point loss as a home favorite of -3.5 or more,if they have a .666 or less win percentage. These home dogs are just 4-21 ats since 1980. Toledo comes in off a bad blow out loss at home to Western Michigan. Northern Illinois looks like they may be one of the better team in the MAC conference this year. They already own a nice Big 10 road win at Purdue,and played Wisconsin real tough in a 28-20 road loss. They smoked Toledo last year 38-7 and appear to be a more talented club this year. On Saturday I have a Double Power system Underdog game of the year. This big side play will win the game out right. There are 2 big systems in the game and a big 10-1 dominator angle. Also on the card is a Big 12 Power system that is 15-0 ats, and this weeks big Blowout play. The Blowout plays have gone 3-1 this year winning the last 2 weeks with Oregon and then Texas.Tech last week a 66-14 winner. I also have a 17-1 system beauty that plays against a team that is vastly over rated in tonight's game. All games go after 3:30 eastern this week. Tulsa on Wednesday,Cincy on Thursday and the Dodgers on Friday.On Saturday we stay hot. Take Northern Illinois as the system club play. bol GC-
Dave Tuley ---View from Vegas tuleythetout
After a nice run in baseball this past week, I dropped both plays Friday on the Angels and on the over.
For SATURDAY, I'm going to fire back on the Angels hoping for a split in New York. I've also got a bunch of college football plays. I'm tied for fourth place in the Leroy's College Challenge heading into this weekend with a record of 27-15 with my top selections...those plays are marked with an asterisk(*) along with the currently available lines:
COLLEGE FOOTBALL (38-24-1 this season for a net profit of 11.6 units)
*Iowa +3 vs. Wisconsin (you might still see +3 again on Saturday morning; also playable on money line)
*Wake Forest +7.5 vs. Clemson (it was a solid 7 but a lot of +7.5 available, Hilton at +8.5 so might still rise)
*UAB +22.5 vs. Mississippi (drop in class, but Ole Miss performing way below expectations; number too high)
Kentucky +14 vs. Auburn (Auburn rolled by Arkansas last week...Kentucky QB out but think it's still too high)
*Wyoming +11 vs. Air Force (Wyoming has shown they can compete with anyone, love the points, +10.5 still OK)
*Texas Tech +10.5 vs. Nebraska (even if Potts out, Sheffield threw for 7 TDs vs. Kansas St.)
*Colorado St. +22 vs. TCU (the Horned Frogs win but not by this much)
New Mexico St. +20 vs. Louisiana Tech (and I thought NFL lines were inflated...)
Arkansas +25 vs. Florida (yes, Florida will score more than vs. LSU, but Arkansas can score, too)
*Washington +6.5 vs, Arizona St. (Huskies stole win last week vs. Arizona...think they'll stick with ASU too)
After a nice run in baseball this past week, I dropped both plays Friday on the Angels and on the over.
For SATURDAY, I'm going to fire back on the Angels hoping for a split in New York. I've also got a bunch of college football plays. I'm tied for fourth place in the Leroy's College Challenge heading into this weekend with a record of 27-15 with my top selections...those plays are marked with an asterisk(*) along with the currently available lines:
COLLEGE FOOTBALL (38-24-1 this season for a net profit of 11.6 units)
*Iowa +3 vs. Wisconsin (you might still see +3 again on Saturday morning; also playable on money line)
*Wake Forest +7.5 vs. Clemson (it was a solid 7 but a lot of +7.5 available, Hilton at +8.5 so might still rise)
*UAB +22.5 vs. Mississippi (drop in class, but Ole Miss performing way below expectations; number too high)
Kentucky +14 vs. Auburn (Auburn rolled by Arkansas last week...Kentucky QB out but think it's still too high)
*Wyoming +11 vs. Air Force (Wyoming has shown they can compete with anyone, love the points, +10.5 still OK)
*Texas Tech +10.5 vs. Nebraska (even if Potts out, Sheffield threw for 7 TDs vs. Kansas St.)
*Colorado St. +22 vs. TCU (the Horned Frogs win but not by this much)
New Mexico St. +20 vs. Louisiana Tech (and I thought NFL lines were inflated...)
Arkansas +25 vs. Florida (yes, Florida will score more than vs. LSU, but Arkansas can score, too)
*Washington +6.5 vs, Arizona St. (Huskies stole win last week vs. Arizona...think they'll stick with ASU too)
Kelso Sturgeon Newsletter
Saturday, Oct. 17
OKLAHOMA STATE by 10 over Missouri--It is difficult to understand all the Oklahoma State (4-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) that have come out of the woodwork to bash the Cowboys, taking an I-told-you-so attitude toward a team that at the beginning of the season appeared to have the talent to win a national championship. Oklahoma State showed its strength last week in winning 36-31 at Texas A&M without Dez Bryant (suspended), the best wide-receiver in the country, and without running back Kendall Hunter (injured). Senior running back Keith Toston stepped in and rushed for 130 yards on 26 carries--an example of just how much depth this team has. I had the opportunity to cash a ticket against Missouri this past Thursday night, taking Nebraska and laying the 3 1/2 and winning 27-12. Frankly Missouri (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) looked like the most under-rated team in the country. I believe OSU will prove that point in this one.
LOUISIANA TECH by 21 over New Mexico State--I will most certainly give New Mexico State (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) credit for its accomplishments this season but I am not on the bandwagon, despite its 20-17 win over a much better Utah State team last week. In that game, Utah State was 'homered' from the get go, out-yarding New Mexico State 429 to 230 but falling victim to 12 penalties--many of them at key times and very questionable--for 128 yards. It was hard to overcome and New Mexico State slipped in the backdoor. With that said, New Mexico State simply doesn't have the offense to keep it close in this game in Rustin, where Louisiana Tech (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) went 5-1 last season and is 2-0 this time around. Meantime, New Mexico State is 1-1 on the road this season, while going 5-31 the previous five years. Tech is much better that it looked in that 37-14 loss to an explosive Nevada team last week and this drop in class points to a big win.
Minnesota by 3 over PENN STATE--There is no average going against Penn State in Happy Valley but there is no 5-1 team in the country that is anymore suspect than are the Nittany Lions. In fact, Coach Joe Paterno (yes, I am a big fan) should be ashamed of himself for playing a cupcake non-conference schedule made up of Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois. It is quite interesting that when Penn State played a legitimate football team, it lost at Iowa, 21-10. The Nittany Lions (2-4 ATS) come into this game off a 42-3 win over 1-AA Eastern Illinois and are facing a Minnesota (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) team with a slew of superior skill players that key an offense that can put the points on the board. Minnesota showed its true colors in two games this season--a 20-13 win over a very tough Air Force team and in a tough 31-28 loss to a very good Wisconsin team. The ambush of the day.
TEMPLE by 9 over Army--Kudos to Army's first-year coach Rich Ellerson--formerly of Cal-Poly--who has Army off to a 3-3 (2-4 ATS) start and fresh off a major upset win over Vanderbilt, 16-13, in overtime. However, that win over Vanderbilt was an early Christmas gift to the Cadets, as the Commodores had three touchdowns called back on penalties and failed to get a fourth when the running back dropped the ball inches short of the goal line as he was going in for the winning TD. Now it is back to reality and a Temple (3-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) that is playing outstanding football right now and showing the guts and grit it takes to win the close ones. These teams have played to common opponents--Ball State (0-6) and Eastern Michigan (0-5)--and have beaten them both. Temple beat Ball State last week, 24-19, and won at Eastern Michigan, 37-13 earlier. Army won at Eastern Michigan, 27-14, and at home against Ball State, 24-17. In the end it boils down to skill players and physical strength and Temple grades out on top in both.
Houston by 55 over TULANE--The only question I have in my mind is how did Houston (4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) ever lose to Texas-El Paso--by a 58-41 score, no less? The Cougars are one of the best football teams in the country and last week won at Mississippi State, 31-24. They previously had knocked off nationally-ranked Oklahoma State, 45-35, in Stillwater, and edged Texas Tech, 29-28, in Houston. Not only is Houston an outstanding team, it has a potentially great passing quarterback in junior Case Keenum who last week completed 39-of-52 passes for 434 yards and two touchdowns in that win in Starkville. This appears to be the perfect storm mismatch. Tulane (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) does not have a defense that can slow down Houston and it certainly is not going to out-gun Keenum and company. For the record Tulane gives up 408.5 yards per game.
Navy by 21 over SMU--Coach June Jones certainly is turning around the SMU program but the team is not quite as good as its 3-2 (3-1 ATS) record and is certainly up against it against one of the best Navy (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) teams of the decade. One need look no further than last week's stunning SMU upset of East Carolina, 28-21. A win--most certainly--but not quite as good as it looked. Three of the SMU touchdowns told the story. One came on a blocked field goal returned 63 yards for a touchdown. Another came on a 53-yard interception returned for a touchdown. One came on a 96-yard pass play. None of these things are likely to happen against a Navy team that crushed Rice, 63-14, last week and did that while trying to hold down the score. The Midshipmen have lost only at Ohio State (5-1), 31-27, and at Pittsburgh (5-1), 27-14. This is a good Navy team and should dominate in this spot.
CONNECTICUT by 17 over Louisville--Connecticut (3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS) remains one of the most under-rated football teams in the country and comes into this game ready to fire its best shot--and that should be good enough to get the money against a struggle Louisville (2-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) team. The host Huskies took their two losses by a total of 5 points, losing at home to North Carolina, 12-10, on a fluke safety and this past week at nationally-ranked Pittsburgh, 24-21, In other words, Connecticut could easily be undefeated. This is a team that plays great defense, giving up just 232.3 yards per game, and should be able to drop the hammer on Louisville. The Cardinals come into this game off a 25-23 home win over a crippled Southern Miss team, on the strength of a 32-yard field goal with 30 seconds left to play.
Best Of The Rest
BOSTON COLLEGE by 4 over N.C. State
Ohio State by 35 over PURDUE
BALL STATE by 3 over Bowling Green
MICHIGAN STATE by 24 over Northwestern
WISCONSIN by 7 over Iowa
Virginia by 13 over MARYLAND
Wake Forest by 3 over CLEMSON
IOWA STATE by 7 over Baylor
OLE MISS by 29 over UAB
Georgia by 14 over VANDERBILT
AUBURN by 7 over Kentucky
Central Michigan by 17 over WESTERN MICHIGAN
AIR FORCE by 21 over Wyoming
OHIO by 14 over Miami-OH
Nevada by 13 over UTAH STATE
WEST VIRGINIA by 14 over Marshall
UCLA by 6 over California
NEBRASKA by 7 over Texas Tech
KANSAS STATE by 3 over Texas A&M
EAST CAROLINA by 35 over Rice
BUFFALO by 7 over Akron
TCU by 17 over Colorado State
IDAHO by 10 over Hawaii
BYU by 28 over SAN DIEGO STATE
ARIZONA by 6 over Stanford
Illinois by 4 over INDIANA
COLORADO by 3 over Kansas
Washington by 4 over ARIZONA STATE
FRESNO STATE by 40 over San Jose State
UL-Lafayette by 24 over WESTERN KENTUCKY
Troy by 27 over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Florida Atlantic by 7 over NORTH TEXAS
Mississippi State by 14 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Saturday, Oct. 17
OKLAHOMA STATE by 10 over Missouri--It is difficult to understand all the Oklahoma State (4-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) that have come out of the woodwork to bash the Cowboys, taking an I-told-you-so attitude toward a team that at the beginning of the season appeared to have the talent to win a national championship. Oklahoma State showed its strength last week in winning 36-31 at Texas A&M without Dez Bryant (suspended), the best wide-receiver in the country, and without running back Kendall Hunter (injured). Senior running back Keith Toston stepped in and rushed for 130 yards on 26 carries--an example of just how much depth this team has. I had the opportunity to cash a ticket against Missouri this past Thursday night, taking Nebraska and laying the 3 1/2 and winning 27-12. Frankly Missouri (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) looked like the most under-rated team in the country. I believe OSU will prove that point in this one.
LOUISIANA TECH by 21 over New Mexico State--I will most certainly give New Mexico State (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) credit for its accomplishments this season but I am not on the bandwagon, despite its 20-17 win over a much better Utah State team last week. In that game, Utah State was 'homered' from the get go, out-yarding New Mexico State 429 to 230 but falling victim to 12 penalties--many of them at key times and very questionable--for 128 yards. It was hard to overcome and New Mexico State slipped in the backdoor. With that said, New Mexico State simply doesn't have the offense to keep it close in this game in Rustin, where Louisiana Tech (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) went 5-1 last season and is 2-0 this time around. Meantime, New Mexico State is 1-1 on the road this season, while going 5-31 the previous five years. Tech is much better that it looked in that 37-14 loss to an explosive Nevada team last week and this drop in class points to a big win.
Minnesota by 3 over PENN STATE--There is no average going against Penn State in Happy Valley but there is no 5-1 team in the country that is anymore suspect than are the Nittany Lions. In fact, Coach Joe Paterno (yes, I am a big fan) should be ashamed of himself for playing a cupcake non-conference schedule made up of Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois. It is quite interesting that when Penn State played a legitimate football team, it lost at Iowa, 21-10. The Nittany Lions (2-4 ATS) come into this game off a 42-3 win over 1-AA Eastern Illinois and are facing a Minnesota (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) team with a slew of superior skill players that key an offense that can put the points on the board. Minnesota showed its true colors in two games this season--a 20-13 win over a very tough Air Force team and in a tough 31-28 loss to a very good Wisconsin team. The ambush of the day.
TEMPLE by 9 over Army--Kudos to Army's first-year coach Rich Ellerson--formerly of Cal-Poly--who has Army off to a 3-3 (2-4 ATS) start and fresh off a major upset win over Vanderbilt, 16-13, in overtime. However, that win over Vanderbilt was an early Christmas gift to the Cadets, as the Commodores had three touchdowns called back on penalties and failed to get a fourth when the running back dropped the ball inches short of the goal line as he was going in for the winning TD. Now it is back to reality and a Temple (3-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) that is playing outstanding football right now and showing the guts and grit it takes to win the close ones. These teams have played to common opponents--Ball State (0-6) and Eastern Michigan (0-5)--and have beaten them both. Temple beat Ball State last week, 24-19, and won at Eastern Michigan, 37-13 earlier. Army won at Eastern Michigan, 27-14, and at home against Ball State, 24-17. In the end it boils down to skill players and physical strength and Temple grades out on top in both.
Houston by 55 over TULANE--The only question I have in my mind is how did Houston (4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) ever lose to Texas-El Paso--by a 58-41 score, no less? The Cougars are one of the best football teams in the country and last week won at Mississippi State, 31-24. They previously had knocked off nationally-ranked Oklahoma State, 45-35, in Stillwater, and edged Texas Tech, 29-28, in Houston. Not only is Houston an outstanding team, it has a potentially great passing quarterback in junior Case Keenum who last week completed 39-of-52 passes for 434 yards and two touchdowns in that win in Starkville. This appears to be the perfect storm mismatch. Tulane (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) does not have a defense that can slow down Houston and it certainly is not going to out-gun Keenum and company. For the record Tulane gives up 408.5 yards per game.
Navy by 21 over SMU--Coach June Jones certainly is turning around the SMU program but the team is not quite as good as its 3-2 (3-1 ATS) record and is certainly up against it against one of the best Navy (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) teams of the decade. One need look no further than last week's stunning SMU upset of East Carolina, 28-21. A win--most certainly--but not quite as good as it looked. Three of the SMU touchdowns told the story. One came on a blocked field goal returned 63 yards for a touchdown. Another came on a 53-yard interception returned for a touchdown. One came on a 96-yard pass play. None of these things are likely to happen against a Navy team that crushed Rice, 63-14, last week and did that while trying to hold down the score. The Midshipmen have lost only at Ohio State (5-1), 31-27, and at Pittsburgh (5-1), 27-14. This is a good Navy team and should dominate in this spot.
CONNECTICUT by 17 over Louisville--Connecticut (3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS) remains one of the most under-rated football teams in the country and comes into this game ready to fire its best shot--and that should be good enough to get the money against a struggle Louisville (2-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) team. The host Huskies took their two losses by a total of 5 points, losing at home to North Carolina, 12-10, on a fluke safety and this past week at nationally-ranked Pittsburgh, 24-21, In other words, Connecticut could easily be undefeated. This is a team that plays great defense, giving up just 232.3 yards per game, and should be able to drop the hammer on Louisville. The Cardinals come into this game off a 25-23 home win over a crippled Southern Miss team, on the strength of a 32-yard field goal with 30 seconds left to play.
Best Of The Rest
BOSTON COLLEGE by 4 over N.C. State
Ohio State by 35 over PURDUE
BALL STATE by 3 over Bowling Green
MICHIGAN STATE by 24 over Northwestern
WISCONSIN by 7 over Iowa
Virginia by 13 over MARYLAND
Wake Forest by 3 over CLEMSON
IOWA STATE by 7 over Baylor
OLE MISS by 29 over UAB
Georgia by 14 over VANDERBILT
AUBURN by 7 over Kentucky
Central Michigan by 17 over WESTERN MICHIGAN
AIR FORCE by 21 over Wyoming
OHIO by 14 over Miami-OH
Nevada by 13 over UTAH STATE
WEST VIRGINIA by 14 over Marshall
UCLA by 6 over California
NEBRASKA by 7 over Texas Tech
KANSAS STATE by 3 over Texas A&M
EAST CAROLINA by 35 over Rice
BUFFALO by 7 over Akron
TCU by 17 over Colorado State
IDAHO by 10 over Hawaii
BYU by 28 over SAN DIEGO STATE
ARIZONA by 6 over Stanford
Illinois by 4 over INDIANA
COLORADO by 3 over Kansas
Washington by 4 over ARIZONA STATE
FRESNO STATE by 40 over San Jose State
UL-Lafayette by 24 over WESTERN KENTUCKY
Troy by 27 over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Florida Atlantic by 7 over NORTH TEXAS
Mississippi State by 14 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(20) Oklahoma (3-2, 1-3 ATS) vs. (3) Texas (5-0, 1-4 ATS) (at Dallas)
Sam Bradford and the Sooners look to knock archrival Texas from the ranks of the unbeaten as well as the national championship picture as these Big 12 foes clash for the 81st consecutive year in the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.
After missing 3½ games with a serious shoulder injury, Bradford returned last week and went 27-for-49 for 389 yards with one TD and no INTs as Oklahoma rolled Baylor 33-7. The Sooners had a 586-268 edge in total offense, but had to settle for four field goals of 35 yards or less, costing them a cover as a 27½-point home favorite. In its three victories, Oklahoma has outscored its opponents 142-7.
The Longhorns ran their winning streak to nine in a row with last Saturday’s 38-14 victory over Colorado, though they never threatened to cover as a 33-point home favorite. Texas actually trailed the lowly Buffaloes 14-3 in the final minute of the first half before ripping off five unanswered touchdowns to finish the game. The Longhorns had just 313 total yards (46 rushing), but the defense allowed just 127 total yards and senior QB Colt McCoy was solid, going 32-for-39 for 265 yards with one TD and one INT. Texas has won all five games this year by double digits.
Oklahoma jumped out to leads of 14-3 and 21-10 in last year’s Red River Rivalry, and also led 35-30 midway through the fourth quarter. However, Texas got two rushing TDs from Cody Johnson to rally for a 45-35 victory as a seven-point underdog, the 10th time in the last 11 years that this battle was decided by double digits. The teams were even statistically – the Longhorns had a mere 438-435 edge in total offense – but the Sooners had five turnovers compared with two for Texas. Bradford went 28-for-39 for 387 yards, five TDs and two INTs, while McCoy was 28-for-35 for 277 yards with one TD and no picks, and he also rushed for 31 yards.
The Sooners started this decade with a five-game SU and ATS winning streak in this rivalry, but since 2005, Texas is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against Oklahoma, cashing the last three years as an underdog. The SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings since 1999, and the underdog is 14-7 ATS in the last 21.
Even without Bradford (58.7 percent completion rate, 485 yards, two TDs, no INTs) for much of the season, the Sooners have still managed to average 35 points and 457 total yards per game (187.8 rushing ypg, 4.4 yards per carry). The defense, though, has been the big key, allowing a total of six touchdowns (8.4 ppg) while yielding just 256 total yards per contest, including 53.6 rushing ypg (1.8 ypc).
Texas is putting up 47.2 points and 479.4 total yards per game (174.8 rushing ypg, 4.5 ypc). McCoy has thrown six interceptions this year, but he’s still completing 73.4 percent of his throws for 282 ypg with 10 TDs. Defensively, the Longhorns are surrendering 15 points and 233 yards per outing (46.6 rushing ypg, 1.6 ypc).
Oklahoma has followed up a 10-2 ATS runs by failing to cover in four of its last five lined outings going back to last year’s BCS Championship Game loss to Florida. The Sooners are also 1-4 ATS both in their last five neutral-site contests and their last five in October. Otherwise, though, Bob Stoops’ squad is on positive pointspread surges of 6-1 in Big 12 play, 8-2 as an underdog and 11-3 after a SU win.
Texas went 9-3 ATS in the 2008 regular season, but since failing to cover against Ohio State in last year’s Fiesta Bowl, the Longhorns are 1-5 ATS (all as a favorite). They’ve also failed to cash in five of their last seven Big 12 contests and 11 of their last 15 when favored by 3½ to 10 points. However, Mack Brown’s team is 7-2 ATS in its last nine neutral-site outings.
The Sooners have stayed under the total in five straight lined games going back to last year’s BCS Championship Game, and the under is 4-1 in their last five as an underdog. However, nine of the team’s last 10 conference contests have topped the total. Texas carries “under” trends of 6-2 overall and 4-0 in Big 12 play. Finally, last year’s game soared over the 57-point total after the previous two meetings stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
(6) Southern Cal (4-1, 2-3 ATS) at (25) Notre Dame (4-1, 1-4 ATS)
Notre Dame will attempt to defeat Southern Cal for the first time since 2001 when it welcomes the sixth-ranked Trojans to South Bend, Ind., for this traditional non-conference matchup.
Both teams come into this game off a bye. Two weeks ago, USC went to Cal and hammered the Bears 30-3 as a four-point road favorite, piling up 174 rushing yards and 283 passing yards, while the defense permitted just 255 yards and forced two turnovers. The Trojans have given up just two touchdowns and a total of 43 points in five games, and going back to the beginning of last season, USC has surrendered 10 points or less in 13 of 18 games, yielding a field goal or less eight times.
The Irish are coming off a 37-30 overtime victory over Washington, failing to cover as an 11½-point home favorite. QB Jimmy Clausen had another huge game, going 23-for-31 for 422 yards with two TDs and one INT, but the defense yielded 457 total yards (176 rushing).
USC has won seven straight meetings in this rivalry (6-1 ATS, all as a favorite) by an average of 27 points per game, including five wins of 31 points or more. The last two years, the Trojans have outscored Notre Dame 76-3 and outgained them by a combined 911-256 margin, surrendering just 98 rushing yards and 15 first downs in the two contests. Going back to 1996, USC has cashed in 10 of the last 13 meetings.
The Trojans’ stout defense (8.6 ppg, 238.6 total ypg allowed) is buoyed by an offense that’s averaging 28.8 points and 430.8 total yards per game, including 208.2 rushing ypg (5.5 per carry). Freshman QB Matt Barkley in four games is connecting on 59 percent of his throws for 958 yards with three TDs and two INTs. However, in its first two roadies at Ohio State and Washington, USC’s offense produced just 18 and 13 points, respectively.
Clausen has passed for 1,544 yards (67.6 completion rate) with a 12-2 TD-to-INT ratio, and the junior guides an offense that’s putting up 32.6 points and 470 total yards per game. However, the defense continues to leak. Since a 35-0 rout of Nevada in the season opener, the Irish have allowed an average of 29.8 points and 427.3 total yards per contest.
USC carries positive ATS trends of 21-6 in non-conference play, 14-4 in non-conference roadies, 15-6 against winning teams, 16-5 when laying between 3½ and 10 points and 9-1 when laying that price on the road. On the negative end, the Trojans are in pointspread funks of 1-5 on the road (all as a favorite), 5-12 in October and 0-6 after a spread-cover.
Notre Dame is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 after a bye and 19-7 ATS in its last 26 in October, but the Irish’s ATS trends turn south from there, including 0-4 overall, 1-4 at home, 6-11 as an underdog, 4-9 as a home ‘dog, 2-8 when catching between 3½ and 10 points and 4-15 at home against opponents with a winning road record.
The Trojans are on “under” streaks of 21-7-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 15-5-1 in October, 7-1 versus winning teams and 22-6 after a spread-cover. Similarly, the under is 5-2 in Notre Dame’s last seven against Pac-10 opponents, 12-4 in its last 16 as an underdog and 10-3-1 in its last 14 after a bye, but the over is 6-1-1 in the Irish’s last eight in South Bend.
Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry (2-0 at Notre Dame).
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
(4) Virginia Tech (5-1, 3-3 ATS) at (19) Georgia Tech (5-1, 3-2 ATS)
Virginia Tech, which has climbed back into the national championship picture after ripping off five straight impressive wins, figures to face a stiff challenge in this ACC matchup with the Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta.
The Hokies throttled Boston College 48-14 as a 13½-point home favorite last Saturday, improving to 3-0 (2-1 ATS) in ACC play. By halftime against the Eagles, Virginia Tech had a 34-0 lead and 293 total yards to just 3 total yards for B.C., and it finished with a 441-163 yardage advantage (235-29 rushing) while the defense forced three turnovers. Since a season-opening 34-24 neutral-site loss to Alabama in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome, the Hokies have won five games by margins of 42, 1, 24, 8 and 34 points.
Georgia Tech outlasted Florida State in a shootout last Saturday, winning 49-44 as a three-point road underdog. QB Josh Nesbitt (140 rushing yards, 131 passing yards, four total TDs) had a huge game, but the defense squandered 539 yards while the offense lost three fumbles. The Yellow Jackets have won and covered three in a row since a 33-17 ACC loss at Miami, and they’re averaging 36.4 in their five wins.
The Hokies edged Georgia Tech 20-17 last season, but came up short as a 6½-point home favorite. Virginia Tech is 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in five meetings this decade, including a 27-3 rout as a three-point ‘dog in its last trip to Georgia Tech in 2007. The road team (and underdog) has cashed in the last three clashes (two outright upsets).
Virginia Tech has won 15 of its last 20 ACC road games SU and is on ATS runs of 23-11 on the highway, 29-12 in conference play, 11-4 as a road chalk and 7-1 against teams with a winning record. However, Frank Beamer’s squad has dropped five of six October games against the number.
The Yellow Jackets are on pointspread runs of 10-5 overall, 5-2 at home, 6-2 after a spread-cover, 5-1-1 in October, 7-3-1 as an underdog, 13-3-1 when catching three points or less and 6-0 when getting three points or less at home.
The over is 5-2 in the Hokies’ last seven road games, 5-1 in their last six as a road chalk, 4-0 in their last four in October and 5-2 in Georgia Tech’s last seven games on grass. However, the Yellow Jackets are 18-6-2 “under” in their last 26 October outings and 8-1 “under” in their last nine as an underdog of three points or less.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH
(11) Iowa (6-0, 3-2 ATS) at Wisconsin (5-1, 2-3 ATS)
Off to its best start in 24 years, Iowa will try to keep its Big Ten championship and BCS Bowl hopes alive when it treks to Camp Randall Stadium to battle the Badgers.
The Hawkeyes followed up a lackluster 24-21 home win over Arkansas State with last week’s narrow 30-28 Big Ten win over Michigan, falling short as an eight-point home chalk despite forcing five Wolverine turnovers. Iowa is 6-0 for the first time since 1985 and has won 10 in a row going back to last year – its longest such streak since 1923. However, Kirk Ferentz’s squad has failed to cash in the last two after going 5-0 ATS in the previous five. Also, five of the team’s victories during the win streak have come by a total of 12 points.
Wisconsin tasted defeat for the first time in 2009 last Saturday, falling 31-13 at Ohio State as a 16-point road underdog. The Badgers actually dominated the Buckeyes from a statistical standpoint, finishing with a 368 total yards and 22 first downs and allowing just 184 yards and eight first downs, but QB Scott Tolzien had two interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), and Wisconsin also allowed a kickoff return for a score.
The Hawkeyes crushed Wisconsin 38-16 as a 5½-point home favorite last season, improving to 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Iowa has cashed in three straight trips to Camp Randall.
Despite failing to get the money the last two weeks, Iowa remains on positive ATS runs of 4-0 on the road, 6-1 as an underdog (4-1 as a road ‘dog) and 10-3 when playing on artificial turf. The Badgers have covered in five straight games as a favorite of three points or fewer and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Big Ten contests, but they’re just 3-6 ATS in their last nine in Madison and 1-4 ATS in their last five against opponents with a winning record.
The over is 5-2-1 in Iowa’s last eight in Big Ten play and 3-0-1 in its last four October contests, but otherwise the Hawkeyes are on “under” stretches of 19-9-2 overall, 20-5-1 on the highway, 9-2-1 as an underdog and 18-7-1 as a road pup. However, it’s been all “overs” for Wisconsin lately, including 3-1 overall, 3-1 at home, 5-1 as a favorite (all at home) and 4-1 in Big Ten action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(7) Ohio State (5-1 SU and ATS) at Purdue (1-5, 3-3 ATS)
The Buckeyes will try to hand Purdue a sixth straight loss when these two Big Ten rivals square off at Ross Ade Stadium.
Ohio State has won four straight in comfortable fashion, with last week’s 31-13 win at home over Wisconsin as a 14½-point chalk being the Buckeyes closest game since a Week 2 home loss to USC. The defense returned two interceptions for touchdowns and they benefited from a 96-yard kickoff return to beat the Badgers, despite getting outgained 368-184 and managing just eight first downs.
The Buckeyes offense is putting up 29.7 points a game and it has scored between 30 and 38 points in all but one game this season (the 18-15 loss to USC). QB Terrelle Pryor has been shaky all season from a passing standpoint, though, throwing for just 941 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions. Pryor has rushed for 334 yards (5.1 per carry) and three TDs.
Purdue opened the season with a 52-31 romp over Toledo, cashing as a 10-point home chalk, but nothing has gone well since then, losing five straight (2-3 ATS). That includes last week’s 35-20 setback at Minnesota as a three-point pup, with the Boilermakers finishing with edges of 402-281 in total yards and 23-14 in first downs, but they had three turnovers and had a blocked punt returned for a score. Purdue, which has lost 19 straight games to ranked opponents, has managed just 21, 21, 21 and 20 points in its last four contests, even though QB Joey Elliott is having a fine senior season (1,575 yards, 12 TDs, nine INTs).
Ohio State has won five of the last six head-to-head meetings and eight of the last 10, but Purdue has cashed a ticket in four of the last five, including last year when the Buckeyes won 16-3 as an 18½ point home favorite. The last time this game was at Purdue, Ohio State scored a 23-7 win and cashed as a seven-point favorite, and the chalk has cashed in seven of the last 10.
The Buckeyes are on ATS runs of 35-17 overall, 25-8 in Big Ten action, 10-3 in October, 10-2 on the road, 20-6 on the road in conference (8-0 last eight), 17-4 as a road favorite and 7-0 following an ATS win. Meanwhile, Purdue is on nothing but negative pointspread trends, including 6-19-1 in October, 11-24-1 against winning teams and 10-22-1 after a straight-up loss, but the Boilers have covered in both games as an underdog this season.
The “under” has been the play recently for Ohio State, including, 4-0-1 overall, 4-1-1 in October, 4-0-1 after a spread-cover and 9-2 against teams with losing records. Purdue is also on several “under” streaks, including 33-16-2 at home, 38-17 in Big Ten contests, 10-0-1 as a home underdog, 20-7 in October and 25-10 following a SU loss. Also, the “under” is a perfect 5-0 the last five years in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Minnesota (4-2, 3-3 ATS) at (14) Penn State (5-1, 1-4 ATS)
The Gophers bring the Big Ten’s lowest-rated offense into Happy Valley for a matchup with Penn State and the conference’s top-ranked defense.
Minnesota has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in its last five contests, but the Gophers are coming off a 35-20 win over Purdue, easily cashing as a three-point home favorite despite producing just 281 total yards and 14 first downs. In its lone conference road test this season, Minnesota beat Northwestern 35-24 as a one-point ‘dog on Sept. 26. Even though the Gophers have topped the 20-point mark in every game, they have trailed in every game this season and have been outgained in every contest except the opener at Syracuse. In fact, Purdue, Wisconsin and Cal all outgained the Gophers by more than 120 yards.
The Nittany Lions have the eighth-ranked defense in the country and tops in the conference, allowing just 10.2 points and 255.7 yards per contest. Four of their six opponents have failed to get more than seven points, and they are coming off last week’s 52-3 dismantling of Division I-AA Eastern Illinois in an unlined contest. However, in Penn State’s lone conference home game, it fell 21-10 to Iowa as a 9½-point underdog.
These teams last met in 2006 and played an overtime thriller in Minnesota, with the Nittany Lions getting the 28-27 win, pushing as a one-point chalk. They Lions have won two straight in this series (1-0-1 ATS) after dropping the previous four (1-3 ATS) dating back to 1999. The Golden Gophers are 5-2-1 ATS, all as an underdog, in the last eight meetings, including outright upsets in Happy Valley in 1999 (24-23) and 2003 (20-14).
Minnesota is on ATS slides of 2-5 against winning teams and 0-4 following a spread-cover, but it is on positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 on the road, 9-4 in Big Ten games, 4-1 in October, 6-1 as a road ‘dog and 4-0 as a road ‘dog of more than 10 points. Penn State has gotten the cash in five of six October contests, but the Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six lined contests overall and 0-4 ATS at home this season (all as a favorite).
The Gophers are on several “over” runs, including 40-17-1 against winning teams, 5-1 as a road ‘dog, 5-0 in conference play, 5-0 as a ‘dog and 4-1 as a ‘dog of more than 10 points, and Penn State has stayed below the total in all four home games this season. The “over” was the play when Penn State won the last two clashes in this series, but the “under” cashed in the previous three, all Minnesota SU wins.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
(22) South Carolina (5-1, 4-1 ATS) at (2) Alabama (6-0, 5-1 ATS)
The Gamecocks are looking for their fifth straight victory, but it’ll be a tough chore as they travel to Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa to face undefeated Alabama, the nation’s second-ranked team, in an SEC clash.
South Carolina survived a scare at home last week, edging Kentucky 28-26 but failing to cash as a nine-point favorite. After struggling to score in a 7-3 season-opening victory at N.C. State, the Gamecocks have scored 28 points or more in four of their last five (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS). Leading the offensive surge has been QB Stephen Garcia, who is finally living up to his hype, having completed 61 percent of his throws for 1,268 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions.
Alabama moved ahead of Texas in the latest rankings after a dominating 22-3 road win over Mississippi last week as a 4½-point favorite, intercepting Jevan Snead four times and holding the Rebels to 72 yards on the ground. The nation’s second-ranked defense has held all but one of its last four opponents to seven points or less (4-0 ATS), and the Crimson Tide have produced 22 points or more in every game this season.
These teams haven’t met since 2005 when Alabama went to South Carolina and scored a 37-14 win as a two-point chalk. The teams have split the four meetings this decade with the Crimson Tide holding the 3-1 ATS edge.
The ‘Cocks are just 2-6 ATS in October and 1-4 ATS against winning teams, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 13-6 on the road, 3-0 as an underdog this season, 4-1 as a ‘dog of more than 10 points and 9-4 as a road pup. On the other side, it’s a plethora of positive ATS streaks for Alabama, including 6-2 at home, 7-1 in SEC contests, 7-2 following a spread-cover, 6-2 as a home favorite and 8-1 on grass.
South Carolina has gone “over” the posted total in four of five overall, six of eight on the road, five of six as a road ‘dog and four of five October contests. The Crimson Tide have gone “over” the total in four of five at home and five of seven overall, but they are on “under” streaks of 5-2 after a spread-cover, 4-1 in October and 5-1 in SEC battles. In the four meetings between these two this decade, the “over” is 3-1.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA and OVER
California (3-2, 2-2 ATS) at UCLA (3-2 SU and ATS)
Both the Golden Bears and Bruins come into this Pac-10 matchup in Pasadena, Calif., looking to snap two-game losing streaks and regain the offensive firepower that has eluded them the last two games.
California has had a couple weeks off since USC went to Berkeley and rolled to a 30-3 win as 4½-point favorites. After scoring 146 points in the first three games of the season (2-0 ATS), Cal has managed just two field goals in getting outscored 72-6 in its last two, including a 42-3 blowout loss at Oregon as a 5½-point road favorite.
UCLA gave up three touchdowns in the first four minutes of the second half last week against Oregon, falling 24-10 as a 3½-point home underdog. The Bruins have been outscored 48-26 in the last two games and have failed to reach 20 points in three of their five contests this year. Freshman starting QB Kevin Prince returned to the UCLA lineup last week, but was ineffective, throwing for just 85 yards with no touchdowns, one interception that was returned for a touchdown followed immediately by a lost fumble that led to another score. The Bruins, who also allowed a 100-yard kickoff return for a TD to start the second half, had just 211 total yards against Oregon.
The home team has won nine straight in this rivalry with UCLA holding the 5-3-1 ATS edge during this stretch, including cashing in four of the last five as an underdog. Last year in Berkeley, Cal scored a 41-20 victory, narrowly cashing as an 18-point favorite. The Bears have lost three straight at the Rose Bowl and are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Pasadena, and the underdog is 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 series meetings.
Cal is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 overall and 6-2 in its last eight as a favorite, but it is on several negative ATS trends, including 4-11 on the road, 2-8 as a road chalk, 2-6 in October and 1-4 against winning teams. UCLA is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven Pac-10 games and 2-5 ATS in its last seven as an underdog, but the Bruins are on positive pointspread runs of 25-9-1 at home since 2004, 21-9 as an underdog, 17-6 as a home ‘dog (10-3 last 13 as a home pup), 20-7 after a SU defeat, 15-6 after a non-cover, 16-6 against winning teams, 12-1 at home against teams with a winning road record and 7-0 at home following a double-digit home loss.
The Golden Bears are on “over” streaks of 5-2 on the road, 5-2 as a favorite and 4-1 on grass. UCLA is on a bevy of “under” runs that include 18-7-1 overall, 18-6 at home, 21-7-1 in Pac-10 contests, 10-1 after a SU loss, 7-1-1 in October games and 15-5-1 as an underdog. Conversely, the over has been the play in four of the last five years in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA
Texas Tech (4-2, 3-2 ATS) at (15) Nebraska (4-1, 5-0 ATS)
Texas Tech shoots for its third straight win overall and its fourth consecutive win over the Cornhuskers when it invades Memorial Stadium for a Big 12 battle.
The Red Raiders rebounded from consecutive narrow road losses at Texas (34-24) and Houston (29-28) with a pair of home blowouts the last two weeks. First, Texas Tech drubbed New Mexico 48-28, falling short as a 34-point chalk, then pummeled Kansas State last week 66-14 as a 16½-point favorite. Against the Wildcats, Texas Tech jumped out to a 38-0 halftime lead and finished with 739 total yards while surrendering just 284. QB Steve Sheffield, making his first-ever start in place of Taylor Potts, went 33-for-41 for 490 yards with seven TD passes and one INT.
Sheffield is expected to start today as Potts remains questionable with an injury.
Nebraska woke up just in time at rain-soaked Missouri 10 days ago, scoring 27 points in the fourth quarter to overcome a 12-0 deficit and win 27-12 as a 3½-point road favorite. The Cornhuskers are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS in Big 12 play) and they’ve outgained all nine squads, including six by more than 110 yards. The only SU defeat during this nine-game stretch came at Virginia Tech on Sept. 19, when Nebraska allowed an 83-yard, four-play drive in the final 90 seconds to turn a 15-10 win into a 16-15 defeat.
The Red Raiders have had Nebraska’s number in the last three meetings, winning 70-10 in 2004, 34-31 in 2005 and 37-31 in overtime last year. However, the Huskers got the cash in the last two clashes, including covering easily as a 20½-point road underdog in last season’s overtime contest, in which Nebraska had a 471-421 yardage edge and held the ball for more than 40 of the 60 minutes. The underdog is on a 5-2 ATS run in this rivalry.
Texas Tech is on ATS upticks of 6-2 after a SU win, 5-2 in Big 12 play and 4-1 as a road underdog of more than 10 points. However, it is 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a road pup of any price and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Nebraska carries ATS trends of 6-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 as a favorite, 5-0 against winning teams and 18-3-1 at home against opponents with a winning road mark.
The high-scoring Red Raiders are on “over” runs of 9-3 overall, 6-2 in conference, 4-0 in October, 35-16 after a SU win and 27-10 after a spread-cover. The over is also 4-1 in Nebraska’s last five league contests, but otherwise the Huskers are on “under” stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 in October and 5-2 as a double-digit favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEBRASKA
Missouri (4-1, 2-2 ATS) at (16) Oklahoma State (4-1, 1-2-1 ATS)
Oklahoma State will take the field without suspended star WR Dez Bryant for the second straight week when it hosts the Tigers in a Big 12 battle.
Missouri entered the fourth quarter with a 12-0 lead over Nebraska last Thursday, then everything fell apart as turnovers and defensive mistakes led to 27 unanswered points by the Huskers, with the Tigers suffering their first defeat of the season and failing to cover as a 3½-point home favorite. Missouri, which entered the contest averaging 36.8 points and 453 yards per game, managed just 225 total yards on a rain-soaked field. Also, QB Blaine Gabbard (17-for-43, 134 yards, no TDs, two INTs) injured his leg early but stayed in the game and threw his first two picks of the season after passing for 1,161 yards and 11 TDs in the first four games.
With Bryant sitting out after lying to NCAA investigators, the Cowboys struggled to a 36-31 win over Texas A&M last week, pushing as a five-point road favorite. QB Zac Robinson (14-for-25, 279 yards, two TDs, one INT) had a strong game as Oklahoma State piled up 448 yards (169 rushing) while the defense yielded 382 yards (109 rushing). The Cowboys have won three in a row (0-1-1 ATS) since a shocking 45-35 loss to Houston as a 15½-point home favorite on Sept. 12.
Oklahoma State went to Columbia last October and scored a surprising 28-23 win as a 14-point road underdog. The visitor is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four battles between these schools since 2001, and the ‘dog has cashed in six of the last nine meetings (not including one pick-em contest). Despite last year’s upset loss, the Tigers are still 8-4 SU and ATS in the past 12 against Oklahoma State, with the four losses being by a combined 14 points.
Mizzou is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 road games, 16-7 ATS in its last 23 after a non-cover and 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 after a double-digit home loss. On the downside, the Tigers are in ATS funks of 1-4 as an underdog, 1-5 in Big 12 play and 0-5 against winning teams.
Oklahoma State is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games and is on ATS upticks of 33-16-2 as a favorite, 7-2 as a home chalk and 4-0-1 in October. However, the Pokes are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight overall, 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four Big 12 contests.
The Tigers’ last five lined games have stayed under the total, but otherwise they’re on “over” surges of 10-4 on the road, 11-5 as an underdog and 9-3 as a road pup. It’s been all “overs” lately for OSU, including 35-16 at home, 18-7 as a home favorite, 4-1 in league action and 5-0 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Arkansas (4-1, 2-2 ATS) at (1) Florida (5-0, 3-1 ATS)
Fresh off a huge SEC road win at LSU, Florida returns to The Swamp looking to extend the nation’s longest winning streak while also continuing its dominance of Arkansas.
The Razorbacks dealt Auburn its first loss of the season last week, rolling to a 44-23 win as a 2½-point home underdog, which came on the heels of a 47-19 rout at Texas A&M as a two-point favorite. Against 17th-ranked Auburn, Arkansas raced out to a 34-3 lead midway through the third quarter and finished with 495 yards while holding the Tigers to 375. QB Ryan Mallet (24-for-37, 274, 2 TDs, 1 INT) continued his stellar season and has now thrown for 1,422 yards on the season with a 13-3 TD-to-INT ratio.
Tim Tebow returned from a concussion and helped lead the Gators to a 13-3 win at LSU last week, barely covering as a 9½-point road favorite. Tebow was rather pedestrian statistically (11-for-16, 134 yards, one TD, one INT, 38 rushing yards on 17 carries), but he did account for the game’s only touchdown and guided a ball-control offense that had possession for 36½ minutes. The defense continued to shine, holding LSU to a field goal, 162 total yards, 11 first downs and 1-for-9 on third downs.
Florida has now won 15 in a row, all by double digits, and it is 12-1 ATS in lined action during this stretch. Also, the Gators’ defense has surrendered just 32 points and two touchdowns – both meaningless second-half scores – this season. Going back to last year’s 24-14 national championship game victory over Oklahoma, Florida has given up 14, 3, 6, 13, 7 and 3 points in its last six games.
The Gators went to Arkansas last season and crushed the Razorbacks 38-7, scoring three TDs in the final 12 minutes to cover the 26½-point number. Florida has won and covered seven consecutive meetings with Arkansas in SEC play – going 6-0 ATS as a favorite – with four of the seven victories by 31 points or more.
The Razorbacks are on ATS runs of 6-2 as an underdog, 10-3 as a road pup in SEC games, 5-0 in October and 4-1 after a spread-cover, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last five when catching double digits.
In addition to cashing in 12 of its last 13 lined contests, Florida is on a slew of positive pointspread rolls, including 25-6 overall, 5-1 at home, 16-5 in SEC action, 11-4 as a double-digit chalk (7-1 last eight when laying 10 or more), 4-0 in October and 9-1 when coming off a victory of 20 points or more.
The under is 9-4 in Arkansas’ last 13 October contests, but otherwise the team is on “over” runs of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in conference and 5-1 after a SU win. The over is also 13-5 in Florida’s last 18 in The Swamp, but the Gators also carry “under” trends of 5-1 overall (all as a favorite), 4-0 in the SEC and 4-0 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
(20) Oklahoma (3-2, 1-3 ATS) vs. (3) Texas (5-0, 1-4 ATS) (at Dallas)
Sam Bradford and the Sooners look to knock archrival Texas from the ranks of the unbeaten as well as the national championship picture as these Big 12 foes clash for the 81st consecutive year in the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.
After missing 3½ games with a serious shoulder injury, Bradford returned last week and went 27-for-49 for 389 yards with one TD and no INTs as Oklahoma rolled Baylor 33-7. The Sooners had a 586-268 edge in total offense, but had to settle for four field goals of 35 yards or less, costing them a cover as a 27½-point home favorite. In its three victories, Oklahoma has outscored its opponents 142-7.
The Longhorns ran their winning streak to nine in a row with last Saturday’s 38-14 victory over Colorado, though they never threatened to cover as a 33-point home favorite. Texas actually trailed the lowly Buffaloes 14-3 in the final minute of the first half before ripping off five unanswered touchdowns to finish the game. The Longhorns had just 313 total yards (46 rushing), but the defense allowed just 127 total yards and senior QB Colt McCoy was solid, going 32-for-39 for 265 yards with one TD and one INT. Texas has won all five games this year by double digits.
Oklahoma jumped out to leads of 14-3 and 21-10 in last year’s Red River Rivalry, and also led 35-30 midway through the fourth quarter. However, Texas got two rushing TDs from Cody Johnson to rally for a 45-35 victory as a seven-point underdog, the 10th time in the last 11 years that this battle was decided by double digits. The teams were even statistically – the Longhorns had a mere 438-435 edge in total offense – but the Sooners had five turnovers compared with two for Texas. Bradford went 28-for-39 for 387 yards, five TDs and two INTs, while McCoy was 28-for-35 for 277 yards with one TD and no picks, and he also rushed for 31 yards.
The Sooners started this decade with a five-game SU and ATS winning streak in this rivalry, but since 2005, Texas is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against Oklahoma, cashing the last three years as an underdog. The SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings since 1999, and the underdog is 14-7 ATS in the last 21.
Even without Bradford (58.7 percent completion rate, 485 yards, two TDs, no INTs) for much of the season, the Sooners have still managed to average 35 points and 457 total yards per game (187.8 rushing ypg, 4.4 yards per carry). The defense, though, has been the big key, allowing a total of six touchdowns (8.4 ppg) while yielding just 256 total yards per contest, including 53.6 rushing ypg (1.8 ypc).
Texas is putting up 47.2 points and 479.4 total yards per game (174.8 rushing ypg, 4.5 ypc). McCoy has thrown six interceptions this year, but he’s still completing 73.4 percent of his throws for 282 ypg with 10 TDs. Defensively, the Longhorns are surrendering 15 points and 233 yards per outing (46.6 rushing ypg, 1.6 ypc).
Oklahoma has followed up a 10-2 ATS runs by failing to cover in four of its last five lined outings going back to last year’s BCS Championship Game loss to Florida. The Sooners are also 1-4 ATS both in their last five neutral-site contests and their last five in October. Otherwise, though, Bob Stoops’ squad is on positive pointspread surges of 6-1 in Big 12 play, 8-2 as an underdog and 11-3 after a SU win.
Texas went 9-3 ATS in the 2008 regular season, but since failing to cover against Ohio State in last year’s Fiesta Bowl, the Longhorns are 1-5 ATS (all as a favorite). They’ve also failed to cash in five of their last seven Big 12 contests and 11 of their last 15 when favored by 3½ to 10 points. However, Mack Brown’s team is 7-2 ATS in its last nine neutral-site outings.
The Sooners have stayed under the total in five straight lined games going back to last year’s BCS Championship Game, and the under is 4-1 in their last five as an underdog. However, nine of the team’s last 10 conference contests have topped the total. Texas carries “under” trends of 6-2 overall and 4-0 in Big 12 play. Finally, last year’s game soared over the 57-point total after the previous two meetings stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
(6) Southern Cal (4-1, 2-3 ATS) at (25) Notre Dame (4-1, 1-4 ATS)
Notre Dame will attempt to defeat Southern Cal for the first time since 2001 when it welcomes the sixth-ranked Trojans to South Bend, Ind., for this traditional non-conference matchup.
Both teams come into this game off a bye. Two weeks ago, USC went to Cal and hammered the Bears 30-3 as a four-point road favorite, piling up 174 rushing yards and 283 passing yards, while the defense permitted just 255 yards and forced two turnovers. The Trojans have given up just two touchdowns and a total of 43 points in five games, and going back to the beginning of last season, USC has surrendered 10 points or less in 13 of 18 games, yielding a field goal or less eight times.
The Irish are coming off a 37-30 overtime victory over Washington, failing to cover as an 11½-point home favorite. QB Jimmy Clausen had another huge game, going 23-for-31 for 422 yards with two TDs and one INT, but the defense yielded 457 total yards (176 rushing).
USC has won seven straight meetings in this rivalry (6-1 ATS, all as a favorite) by an average of 27 points per game, including five wins of 31 points or more. The last two years, the Trojans have outscored Notre Dame 76-3 and outgained them by a combined 911-256 margin, surrendering just 98 rushing yards and 15 first downs in the two contests. Going back to 1996, USC has cashed in 10 of the last 13 meetings.
The Trojans’ stout defense (8.6 ppg, 238.6 total ypg allowed) is buoyed by an offense that’s averaging 28.8 points and 430.8 total yards per game, including 208.2 rushing ypg (5.5 per carry). Freshman QB Matt Barkley in four games is connecting on 59 percent of his throws for 958 yards with three TDs and two INTs. However, in its first two roadies at Ohio State and Washington, USC’s offense produced just 18 and 13 points, respectively.
Clausen has passed for 1,544 yards (67.6 completion rate) with a 12-2 TD-to-INT ratio, and the junior guides an offense that’s putting up 32.6 points and 470 total yards per game. However, the defense continues to leak. Since a 35-0 rout of Nevada in the season opener, the Irish have allowed an average of 29.8 points and 427.3 total yards per contest.
USC carries positive ATS trends of 21-6 in non-conference play, 14-4 in non-conference roadies, 15-6 against winning teams, 16-5 when laying between 3½ and 10 points and 9-1 when laying that price on the road. On the negative end, the Trojans are in pointspread funks of 1-5 on the road (all as a favorite), 5-12 in October and 0-6 after a spread-cover.
Notre Dame is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 after a bye and 19-7 ATS in its last 26 in October, but the Irish’s ATS trends turn south from there, including 0-4 overall, 1-4 at home, 6-11 as an underdog, 4-9 as a home ‘dog, 2-8 when catching between 3½ and 10 points and 4-15 at home against opponents with a winning road record.
The Trojans are on “under” streaks of 21-7-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 15-5-1 in October, 7-1 versus winning teams and 22-6 after a spread-cover. Similarly, the under is 5-2 in Notre Dame’s last seven against Pac-10 opponents, 12-4 in its last 16 as an underdog and 10-3-1 in its last 14 after a bye, but the over is 6-1-1 in the Irish’s last eight in South Bend.
Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry (2-0 at Notre Dame).
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
(4) Virginia Tech (5-1, 3-3 ATS) at (19) Georgia Tech (5-1, 3-2 ATS)
Virginia Tech, which has climbed back into the national championship picture after ripping off five straight impressive wins, figures to face a stiff challenge in this ACC matchup with the Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta.
The Hokies throttled Boston College 48-14 as a 13½-point home favorite last Saturday, improving to 3-0 (2-1 ATS) in ACC play. By halftime against the Eagles, Virginia Tech had a 34-0 lead and 293 total yards to just 3 total yards for B.C., and it finished with a 441-163 yardage advantage (235-29 rushing) while the defense forced three turnovers. Since a season-opening 34-24 neutral-site loss to Alabama in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome, the Hokies have won five games by margins of 42, 1, 24, 8 and 34 points.
Georgia Tech outlasted Florida State in a shootout last Saturday, winning 49-44 as a three-point road underdog. QB Josh Nesbitt (140 rushing yards, 131 passing yards, four total TDs) had a huge game, but the defense squandered 539 yards while the offense lost three fumbles. The Yellow Jackets have won and covered three in a row since a 33-17 ACC loss at Miami, and they’re averaging 36.4 in their five wins.
The Hokies edged Georgia Tech 20-17 last season, but came up short as a 6½-point home favorite. Virginia Tech is 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in five meetings this decade, including a 27-3 rout as a three-point ‘dog in its last trip to Georgia Tech in 2007. The road team (and underdog) has cashed in the last three clashes (two outright upsets).
Virginia Tech has won 15 of its last 20 ACC road games SU and is on ATS runs of 23-11 on the highway, 29-12 in conference play, 11-4 as a road chalk and 7-1 against teams with a winning record. However, Frank Beamer’s squad has dropped five of six October games against the number.
The Yellow Jackets are on pointspread runs of 10-5 overall, 5-2 at home, 6-2 after a spread-cover, 5-1-1 in October, 7-3-1 as an underdog, 13-3-1 when catching three points or less and 6-0 when getting three points or less at home.
The over is 5-2 in the Hokies’ last seven road games, 5-1 in their last six as a road chalk, 4-0 in their last four in October and 5-2 in Georgia Tech’s last seven games on grass. However, the Yellow Jackets are 18-6-2 “under” in their last 26 October outings and 8-1 “under” in their last nine as an underdog of three points or less.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH
(11) Iowa (6-0, 3-2 ATS) at Wisconsin (5-1, 2-3 ATS)
Off to its best start in 24 years, Iowa will try to keep its Big Ten championship and BCS Bowl hopes alive when it treks to Camp Randall Stadium to battle the Badgers.
The Hawkeyes followed up a lackluster 24-21 home win over Arkansas State with last week’s narrow 30-28 Big Ten win over Michigan, falling short as an eight-point home chalk despite forcing five Wolverine turnovers. Iowa is 6-0 for the first time since 1985 and has won 10 in a row going back to last year – its longest such streak since 1923. However, Kirk Ferentz’s squad has failed to cash in the last two after going 5-0 ATS in the previous five. Also, five of the team’s victories during the win streak have come by a total of 12 points.
Wisconsin tasted defeat for the first time in 2009 last Saturday, falling 31-13 at Ohio State as a 16-point road underdog. The Badgers actually dominated the Buckeyes from a statistical standpoint, finishing with a 368 total yards and 22 first downs and allowing just 184 yards and eight first downs, but QB Scott Tolzien had two interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), and Wisconsin also allowed a kickoff return for a score.
The Hawkeyes crushed Wisconsin 38-16 as a 5½-point home favorite last season, improving to 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Iowa has cashed in three straight trips to Camp Randall.
Despite failing to get the money the last two weeks, Iowa remains on positive ATS runs of 4-0 on the road, 6-1 as an underdog (4-1 as a road ‘dog) and 10-3 when playing on artificial turf. The Badgers have covered in five straight games as a favorite of three points or fewer and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Big Ten contests, but they’re just 3-6 ATS in their last nine in Madison and 1-4 ATS in their last five against opponents with a winning record.
The over is 5-2-1 in Iowa’s last eight in Big Ten play and 3-0-1 in its last four October contests, but otherwise the Hawkeyes are on “under” stretches of 19-9-2 overall, 20-5-1 on the highway, 9-2-1 as an underdog and 18-7-1 as a road pup. However, it’s been all “overs” for Wisconsin lately, including 3-1 overall, 3-1 at home, 5-1 as a favorite (all at home) and 4-1 in Big Ten action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(7) Ohio State (5-1 SU and ATS) at Purdue (1-5, 3-3 ATS)
The Buckeyes will try to hand Purdue a sixth straight loss when these two Big Ten rivals square off at Ross Ade Stadium.
Ohio State has won four straight in comfortable fashion, with last week’s 31-13 win at home over Wisconsin as a 14½-point chalk being the Buckeyes closest game since a Week 2 home loss to USC. The defense returned two interceptions for touchdowns and they benefited from a 96-yard kickoff return to beat the Badgers, despite getting outgained 368-184 and managing just eight first downs.
The Buckeyes offense is putting up 29.7 points a game and it has scored between 30 and 38 points in all but one game this season (the 18-15 loss to USC). QB Terrelle Pryor has been shaky all season from a passing standpoint, though, throwing for just 941 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions. Pryor has rushed for 334 yards (5.1 per carry) and three TDs.
Purdue opened the season with a 52-31 romp over Toledo, cashing as a 10-point home chalk, but nothing has gone well since then, losing five straight (2-3 ATS). That includes last week’s 35-20 setback at Minnesota as a three-point pup, with the Boilermakers finishing with edges of 402-281 in total yards and 23-14 in first downs, but they had three turnovers and had a blocked punt returned for a score. Purdue, which has lost 19 straight games to ranked opponents, has managed just 21, 21, 21 and 20 points in its last four contests, even though QB Joey Elliott is having a fine senior season (1,575 yards, 12 TDs, nine INTs).
Ohio State has won five of the last six head-to-head meetings and eight of the last 10, but Purdue has cashed a ticket in four of the last five, including last year when the Buckeyes won 16-3 as an 18½ point home favorite. The last time this game was at Purdue, Ohio State scored a 23-7 win and cashed as a seven-point favorite, and the chalk has cashed in seven of the last 10.
The Buckeyes are on ATS runs of 35-17 overall, 25-8 in Big Ten action, 10-3 in October, 10-2 on the road, 20-6 on the road in conference (8-0 last eight), 17-4 as a road favorite and 7-0 following an ATS win. Meanwhile, Purdue is on nothing but negative pointspread trends, including 6-19-1 in October, 11-24-1 against winning teams and 10-22-1 after a straight-up loss, but the Boilers have covered in both games as an underdog this season.
The “under” has been the play recently for Ohio State, including, 4-0-1 overall, 4-1-1 in October, 4-0-1 after a spread-cover and 9-2 against teams with losing records. Purdue is also on several “under” streaks, including 33-16-2 at home, 38-17 in Big Ten contests, 10-0-1 as a home underdog, 20-7 in October and 25-10 following a SU loss. Also, the “under” is a perfect 5-0 the last five years in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Minnesota (4-2, 3-3 ATS) at (14) Penn State (5-1, 1-4 ATS)
The Gophers bring the Big Ten’s lowest-rated offense into Happy Valley for a matchup with Penn State and the conference’s top-ranked defense.
Minnesota has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in its last five contests, but the Gophers are coming off a 35-20 win over Purdue, easily cashing as a three-point home favorite despite producing just 281 total yards and 14 first downs. In its lone conference road test this season, Minnesota beat Northwestern 35-24 as a one-point ‘dog on Sept. 26. Even though the Gophers have topped the 20-point mark in every game, they have trailed in every game this season and have been outgained in every contest except the opener at Syracuse. In fact, Purdue, Wisconsin and Cal all outgained the Gophers by more than 120 yards.
The Nittany Lions have the eighth-ranked defense in the country and tops in the conference, allowing just 10.2 points and 255.7 yards per contest. Four of their six opponents have failed to get more than seven points, and they are coming off last week’s 52-3 dismantling of Division I-AA Eastern Illinois in an unlined contest. However, in Penn State’s lone conference home game, it fell 21-10 to Iowa as a 9½-point underdog.
These teams last met in 2006 and played an overtime thriller in Minnesota, with the Nittany Lions getting the 28-27 win, pushing as a one-point chalk. They Lions have won two straight in this series (1-0-1 ATS) after dropping the previous four (1-3 ATS) dating back to 1999. The Golden Gophers are 5-2-1 ATS, all as an underdog, in the last eight meetings, including outright upsets in Happy Valley in 1999 (24-23) and 2003 (20-14).
Minnesota is on ATS slides of 2-5 against winning teams and 0-4 following a spread-cover, but it is on positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 on the road, 9-4 in Big Ten games, 4-1 in October, 6-1 as a road ‘dog and 4-0 as a road ‘dog of more than 10 points. Penn State has gotten the cash in five of six October contests, but the Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six lined contests overall and 0-4 ATS at home this season (all as a favorite).
The Gophers are on several “over” runs, including 40-17-1 against winning teams, 5-1 as a road ‘dog, 5-0 in conference play, 5-0 as a ‘dog and 4-1 as a ‘dog of more than 10 points, and Penn State has stayed below the total in all four home games this season. The “over” was the play when Penn State won the last two clashes in this series, but the “under” cashed in the previous three, all Minnesota SU wins.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
(22) South Carolina (5-1, 4-1 ATS) at (2) Alabama (6-0, 5-1 ATS)
The Gamecocks are looking for their fifth straight victory, but it’ll be a tough chore as they travel to Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa to face undefeated Alabama, the nation’s second-ranked team, in an SEC clash.
South Carolina survived a scare at home last week, edging Kentucky 28-26 but failing to cash as a nine-point favorite. After struggling to score in a 7-3 season-opening victory at N.C. State, the Gamecocks have scored 28 points or more in four of their last five (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS). Leading the offensive surge has been QB Stephen Garcia, who is finally living up to his hype, having completed 61 percent of his throws for 1,268 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions.
Alabama moved ahead of Texas in the latest rankings after a dominating 22-3 road win over Mississippi last week as a 4½-point favorite, intercepting Jevan Snead four times and holding the Rebels to 72 yards on the ground. The nation’s second-ranked defense has held all but one of its last four opponents to seven points or less (4-0 ATS), and the Crimson Tide have produced 22 points or more in every game this season.
These teams haven’t met since 2005 when Alabama went to South Carolina and scored a 37-14 win as a two-point chalk. The teams have split the four meetings this decade with the Crimson Tide holding the 3-1 ATS edge.
The ‘Cocks are just 2-6 ATS in October and 1-4 ATS against winning teams, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 13-6 on the road, 3-0 as an underdog this season, 4-1 as a ‘dog of more than 10 points and 9-4 as a road pup. On the other side, it’s a plethora of positive ATS streaks for Alabama, including 6-2 at home, 7-1 in SEC contests, 7-2 following a spread-cover, 6-2 as a home favorite and 8-1 on grass.
South Carolina has gone “over” the posted total in four of five overall, six of eight on the road, five of six as a road ‘dog and four of five October contests. The Crimson Tide have gone “over” the total in four of five at home and five of seven overall, but they are on “under” streaks of 5-2 after a spread-cover, 4-1 in October and 5-1 in SEC battles. In the four meetings between these two this decade, the “over” is 3-1.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA and OVER
California (3-2, 2-2 ATS) at UCLA (3-2 SU and ATS)
Both the Golden Bears and Bruins come into this Pac-10 matchup in Pasadena, Calif., looking to snap two-game losing streaks and regain the offensive firepower that has eluded them the last two games.
California has had a couple weeks off since USC went to Berkeley and rolled to a 30-3 win as 4½-point favorites. After scoring 146 points in the first three games of the season (2-0 ATS), Cal has managed just two field goals in getting outscored 72-6 in its last two, including a 42-3 blowout loss at Oregon as a 5½-point road favorite.
UCLA gave up three touchdowns in the first four minutes of the second half last week against Oregon, falling 24-10 as a 3½-point home underdog. The Bruins have been outscored 48-26 in the last two games and have failed to reach 20 points in three of their five contests this year. Freshman starting QB Kevin Prince returned to the UCLA lineup last week, but was ineffective, throwing for just 85 yards with no touchdowns, one interception that was returned for a touchdown followed immediately by a lost fumble that led to another score. The Bruins, who also allowed a 100-yard kickoff return for a TD to start the second half, had just 211 total yards against Oregon.
The home team has won nine straight in this rivalry with UCLA holding the 5-3-1 ATS edge during this stretch, including cashing in four of the last five as an underdog. Last year in Berkeley, Cal scored a 41-20 victory, narrowly cashing as an 18-point favorite. The Bears have lost three straight at the Rose Bowl and are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Pasadena, and the underdog is 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 series meetings.
Cal is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 overall and 6-2 in its last eight as a favorite, but it is on several negative ATS trends, including 4-11 on the road, 2-8 as a road chalk, 2-6 in October and 1-4 against winning teams. UCLA is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven Pac-10 games and 2-5 ATS in its last seven as an underdog, but the Bruins are on positive pointspread runs of 25-9-1 at home since 2004, 21-9 as an underdog, 17-6 as a home ‘dog (10-3 last 13 as a home pup), 20-7 after a SU defeat, 15-6 after a non-cover, 16-6 against winning teams, 12-1 at home against teams with a winning road record and 7-0 at home following a double-digit home loss.
The Golden Bears are on “over” streaks of 5-2 on the road, 5-2 as a favorite and 4-1 on grass. UCLA is on a bevy of “under” runs that include 18-7-1 overall, 18-6 at home, 21-7-1 in Pac-10 contests, 10-1 after a SU loss, 7-1-1 in October games and 15-5-1 as an underdog. Conversely, the over has been the play in four of the last five years in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA
Texas Tech (4-2, 3-2 ATS) at (15) Nebraska (4-1, 5-0 ATS)
Texas Tech shoots for its third straight win overall and its fourth consecutive win over the Cornhuskers when it invades Memorial Stadium for a Big 12 battle.
The Red Raiders rebounded from consecutive narrow road losses at Texas (34-24) and Houston (29-28) with a pair of home blowouts the last two weeks. First, Texas Tech drubbed New Mexico 48-28, falling short as a 34-point chalk, then pummeled Kansas State last week 66-14 as a 16½-point favorite. Against the Wildcats, Texas Tech jumped out to a 38-0 halftime lead and finished with 739 total yards while surrendering just 284. QB Steve Sheffield, making his first-ever start in place of Taylor Potts, went 33-for-41 for 490 yards with seven TD passes and one INT.
Sheffield is expected to start today as Potts remains questionable with an injury.
Nebraska woke up just in time at rain-soaked Missouri 10 days ago, scoring 27 points in the fourth quarter to overcome a 12-0 deficit and win 27-12 as a 3½-point road favorite. The Cornhuskers are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS in Big 12 play) and they’ve outgained all nine squads, including six by more than 110 yards. The only SU defeat during this nine-game stretch came at Virginia Tech on Sept. 19, when Nebraska allowed an 83-yard, four-play drive in the final 90 seconds to turn a 15-10 win into a 16-15 defeat.
The Red Raiders have had Nebraska’s number in the last three meetings, winning 70-10 in 2004, 34-31 in 2005 and 37-31 in overtime last year. However, the Huskers got the cash in the last two clashes, including covering easily as a 20½-point road underdog in last season’s overtime contest, in which Nebraska had a 471-421 yardage edge and held the ball for more than 40 of the 60 minutes. The underdog is on a 5-2 ATS run in this rivalry.
Texas Tech is on ATS upticks of 6-2 after a SU win, 5-2 in Big 12 play and 4-1 as a road underdog of more than 10 points. However, it is 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a road pup of any price and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Nebraska carries ATS trends of 6-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 as a favorite, 5-0 against winning teams and 18-3-1 at home against opponents with a winning road mark.
The high-scoring Red Raiders are on “over” runs of 9-3 overall, 6-2 in conference, 4-0 in October, 35-16 after a SU win and 27-10 after a spread-cover. The over is also 4-1 in Nebraska’s last five league contests, but otherwise the Huskers are on “under” stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 in October and 5-2 as a double-digit favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEBRASKA
Missouri (4-1, 2-2 ATS) at (16) Oklahoma State (4-1, 1-2-1 ATS)
Oklahoma State will take the field without suspended star WR Dez Bryant for the second straight week when it hosts the Tigers in a Big 12 battle.
Missouri entered the fourth quarter with a 12-0 lead over Nebraska last Thursday, then everything fell apart as turnovers and defensive mistakes led to 27 unanswered points by the Huskers, with the Tigers suffering their first defeat of the season and failing to cover as a 3½-point home favorite. Missouri, which entered the contest averaging 36.8 points and 453 yards per game, managed just 225 total yards on a rain-soaked field. Also, QB Blaine Gabbard (17-for-43, 134 yards, no TDs, two INTs) injured his leg early but stayed in the game and threw his first two picks of the season after passing for 1,161 yards and 11 TDs in the first four games.
With Bryant sitting out after lying to NCAA investigators, the Cowboys struggled to a 36-31 win over Texas A&M last week, pushing as a five-point road favorite. QB Zac Robinson (14-for-25, 279 yards, two TDs, one INT) had a strong game as Oklahoma State piled up 448 yards (169 rushing) while the defense yielded 382 yards (109 rushing). The Cowboys have won three in a row (0-1-1 ATS) since a shocking 45-35 loss to Houston as a 15½-point home favorite on Sept. 12.
Oklahoma State went to Columbia last October and scored a surprising 28-23 win as a 14-point road underdog. The visitor is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four battles between these schools since 2001, and the ‘dog has cashed in six of the last nine meetings (not including one pick-em contest). Despite last year’s upset loss, the Tigers are still 8-4 SU and ATS in the past 12 against Oklahoma State, with the four losses being by a combined 14 points.
Mizzou is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 road games, 16-7 ATS in its last 23 after a non-cover and 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 after a double-digit home loss. On the downside, the Tigers are in ATS funks of 1-4 as an underdog, 1-5 in Big 12 play and 0-5 against winning teams.
Oklahoma State is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games and is on ATS upticks of 33-16-2 as a favorite, 7-2 as a home chalk and 4-0-1 in October. However, the Pokes are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight overall, 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four Big 12 contests.
The Tigers’ last five lined games have stayed under the total, but otherwise they’re on “over” surges of 10-4 on the road, 11-5 as an underdog and 9-3 as a road pup. It’s been all “overs” lately for OSU, including 35-16 at home, 18-7 as a home favorite, 4-1 in league action and 5-0 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Arkansas (4-1, 2-2 ATS) at (1) Florida (5-0, 3-1 ATS)
Fresh off a huge SEC road win at LSU, Florida returns to The Swamp looking to extend the nation’s longest winning streak while also continuing its dominance of Arkansas.
The Razorbacks dealt Auburn its first loss of the season last week, rolling to a 44-23 win as a 2½-point home underdog, which came on the heels of a 47-19 rout at Texas A&M as a two-point favorite. Against 17th-ranked Auburn, Arkansas raced out to a 34-3 lead midway through the third quarter and finished with 495 yards while holding the Tigers to 375. QB Ryan Mallet (24-for-37, 274, 2 TDs, 1 INT) continued his stellar season and has now thrown for 1,422 yards on the season with a 13-3 TD-to-INT ratio.
Tim Tebow returned from a concussion and helped lead the Gators to a 13-3 win at LSU last week, barely covering as a 9½-point road favorite. Tebow was rather pedestrian statistically (11-for-16, 134 yards, one TD, one INT, 38 rushing yards on 17 carries), but he did account for the game’s only touchdown and guided a ball-control offense that had possession for 36½ minutes. The defense continued to shine, holding LSU to a field goal, 162 total yards, 11 first downs and 1-for-9 on third downs.
Florida has now won 15 in a row, all by double digits, and it is 12-1 ATS in lined action during this stretch. Also, the Gators’ defense has surrendered just 32 points and two touchdowns – both meaningless second-half scores – this season. Going back to last year’s 24-14 national championship game victory over Oklahoma, Florida has given up 14, 3, 6, 13, 7 and 3 points in its last six games.
The Gators went to Arkansas last season and crushed the Razorbacks 38-7, scoring three TDs in the final 12 minutes to cover the 26½-point number. Florida has won and covered seven consecutive meetings with Arkansas in SEC play – going 6-0 ATS as a favorite – with four of the seven victories by 31 points or more.
The Razorbacks are on ATS runs of 6-2 as an underdog, 10-3 as a road pup in SEC games, 5-0 in October and 4-1 after a spread-cover, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last five when catching double digits.
In addition to cashing in 12 of its last 13 lined contests, Florida is on a slew of positive pointspread rolls, including 25-6 overall, 5-1 at home, 16-5 in SEC action, 11-4 as a double-digit chalk (7-1 last eight when laying 10 or more), 4-0 in October and 9-1 when coming off a victory of 20 points or more.
The under is 9-4 in Arkansas’ last 13 October contests, but otherwise the team is on “over” runs of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in conference and 5-1 after a SU win. The over is also 13-5 in Florida’s last 18 in The Swamp, but the Gators also carry “under” trends of 5-1 overall (all as a favorite), 4-0 in the SEC and 4-0 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
(Season overall 27-13 +78.8units)
34paytonplace
10unit- Miss st. -4
Well we think this is a mismatch as miss st. is the #10 rushing offense in the country and middle tenn ranks #99 on defense in stopping the run........We will take the bulldogs from the sec on the road layinng a small number!!!!!
8unit- Ohio st. -13.5
The buckeyes strong defense should stop the boilermakers rushing attack forcing them to throw and they do not do that very well also purdue as you saw last week make alot of mistakes and look for ohio st to pull away to and easy cover!!!!
8unit- UL-Lafayette -7
There only two losses were against ranked opponents and w.ky is ranked last in almost every offensive category and it's not much better on defense.......
8unit- Wake forest +7.5
The deacons have the better qb in riley skinner who has a completion pct of 69% on the season while clemson qb parker is completeing 49% and the tigers have been lousy running the ball and must relyon there defense.......
5unit- Byu -17.5
We have a very skilled offense against a pitfull one and the aztecs cannot run the football and there qb is mediocre at best expect the cougars to cruise to a win easily..........
5unit- Illonis -3
The illinii have played the tougher schedule #11 to #63 by the hoosiers and we backed the hoosiers last week and they were horrible.......
5unit- New mexico st. +20.5
Both teams want to run the ball and nither should have any trouble as the aggies are ranked #55 running and #114 in stopping the run and la tech is #57 and #101 in stopping the run........I will take the boat load of points.......
5unit- Fresno st. -19.5
The bulldogs 3 losses to wisc,boise,cincy and now they get to feed off the bottom of the conference as san jose is #118 on offense and #101 on defense and the bulldogs will run it down there throats
34paytonplace
10unit- Miss st. -4
Well we think this is a mismatch as miss st. is the #10 rushing offense in the country and middle tenn ranks #99 on defense in stopping the run........We will take the bulldogs from the sec on the road layinng a small number!!!!!
8unit- Ohio st. -13.5
The buckeyes strong defense should stop the boilermakers rushing attack forcing them to throw and they do not do that very well also purdue as you saw last week make alot of mistakes and look for ohio st to pull away to and easy cover!!!!
8unit- UL-Lafayette -7
There only two losses were against ranked opponents and w.ky is ranked last in almost every offensive category and it's not much better on defense.......
8unit- Wake forest +7.5
The deacons have the better qb in riley skinner who has a completion pct of 69% on the season while clemson qb parker is completeing 49% and the tigers have been lousy running the ball and must relyon there defense.......
5unit- Byu -17.5
We have a very skilled offense against a pitfull one and the aztecs cannot run the football and there qb is mediocre at best expect the cougars to cruise to a win easily..........
5unit- Illonis -3
The illinii have played the tougher schedule #11 to #63 by the hoosiers and we backed the hoosiers last week and they were horrible.......
5unit- New mexico st. +20.5
Both teams want to run the ball and nither should have any trouble as the aggies are ranked #55 running and #114 in stopping the run and la tech is #57 and #101 in stopping the run........I will take the boat load of points.......
5unit- Fresno st. -19.5
The bulldogs 3 losses to wisc,boise,cincy and now they get to feed off the bottom of the conference as san jose is #118 on offense and #101 on defense and the bulldogs will run it down there throats
