NCAAF
Writeup
Saturday's best games
Underdogs are 9-2-1 vs spread in last dozen Air Force-Navy games, as Falcons lost last three visits here, by 3-11-3 points. Air Force beat the Middies 14-6 (-9.5) at home LY, their first series win in last eight tries, running ball for 292 yards. Air Force hasn't beaten a I-A team yet, while Navy (+17.5) lost 24-21 at South Carolina two weeks ago, converting 9 of 14 on third down and running ball for 274 yards. Navy is 7-14-1 in its last 22 games as a home fave. Air Force is 12-10-1 as a road dog.
Favorites are 5-2 in Northwestern's last seven visits to Illinois, with the Wildcats winning three of last four; Illini are 5-3 vs spread in last eight as a series favorite, 2-2 here. Since 2008, Illinois is 5-7-1 as a home favorite. Wildcats covered eight of last ten games as a road underdog- they're 1-1 on road this season, winning 24-17 (+3) at Boston College, losing 21-14 (-8) at Army two weeks ago. Illinois is 4-0 but hasn't played anyone of note; they trailed Western Michigan at half last week, won 23-20 (-13).
Underdogs covered six of last seven Georgia Tech-NC State games, with Tech winning last three visits to Raleigh, by 8-10-7 points. Tech covered one of last four as a series favorite- they're 4-0 this year, scoring 50 ppg in three games vs I-A opponents. NC State beat Tech two of last three years after losing previous five meetings, but Wolfpack lost both games vs I-A foes, 34-27 (-2.5) at Wake Forest, 44-14 (+7.5) last Thursday at Cincinnati. Tech has 1,298 rushing yards in its last three games.
Ohio State won its last seven games vs Michigan State, with six of seven wins by 10+ points; Spartans lost lost last four visits here by an average score of 30-20. Favorites covered six of last eight in series, but Spartans are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here. Buckeyes completed 11 of 34 passes in last two games; since 2004, they're 30-17 as a home fave, 1-2 so far this season. MSU covered twice in last seven games as road dog, losing 31-13 (+5) at Notre Dame in only road game this year.
Florida is home dog for first time since 2003. Alabama won 31-6/32-13 in last two games vs Gators; last six series games were decided by 11+ points. This is Tide's first visit to Swamp since '06; they're 9-4 in last 13 games as road favorite, winning 27-11 (-10) in only road game this year, at Penn State. Florida covered seven of last ten games as a dog. Alabama outscored first four opponents 76-22 in second half. Dogs are 4-3-1 vs spread in last eight series games.
Arkansas beat old SWC/future SEC rival Texas A&M 24-17/47-19 last couple years; Razorbacks are 10-7-1 vs spread in game following last 18 losses- they got drilled at Alabama last week. Aggies covered six of last eight as a road favorite, are coming off home loss to Oklahoma State in a game A&M led 20-3 at half- they're 6-10 coming off a loss. Arkansas is 11-8 as a dog under Petrino. Hogs are minus-2 in turnovers in each of its last three games, all of which went over the total.
Utah's first Pac-10 home game is against Washington squad that got beat 51-38 (+17) at Nebraska in its only road game this year. Huskies are 3-1 after beating Cal at home last week- they scored 40-38-31 points in last three games. Since 2006, Utes are 13-9-2 as home favorite, 25-15-1 in conference play; they had last week off after crushing rival BYU 54-10 two weeks ago. Since '07, Huskies are 6-13 as road underdogs. Utes have +9 turnover margin, recovering eight opponent fumbles last two games.
Baylor QB's have thrown 14 TD passes, 13 IPs, but things figure to get tougher in Little Apple vs Kansas State squad that won in rainy Miami last week. Bears lost last three visits here by average score of 46-10, but those games were before Baylor had Briles/Griffin combo. Baylor scored 50-56 in its games vs I-A foes; over last decade, they're 5-0 as a favorite on road. K-State outrushed Miami 265-139 in rain last week, stopping 'canes on goal line in last 1:00. Wildcats are 3-7 in last 10 as home dog.
Mississippi State lost 27-24/47-0 in last two visits to Georgia; MSU is 4-8 in last dozen games as road underdog- they beat Louisiana Tech last week in OT, after consecutive losses to Auburn/LSU, so they're trying to find their way. Georgia outrushed Ole Miss 207-34 last week- since 2003, Dawgs are 15-22-1 as home favorites. Since 2008, State is 7-10 vs spread coming off a win- they were outscored 23-12 in second half of last two games. Georgia's losses are Boise/South Carolina, top 25 clubs.
Auburn won last five games vs South Carolina by average score of 37-15, covering four of five games, winning last three here by 39-7-17 points, but Auburn's defense is lame, allowing 41 of 69 conversions on 3rd down (59.4%)- they gave up 624 yards in 38-24 loss at Clemson, only road tilt of year so far. Tigers are 2-6 in last eight games as road dog. Gamecocks have been tested in tight wins over Georgia (45-42), Navy (24-21); they are 12-9 vs spread in last 21 games as a home favorite.
Clemson beat Auburn/Florida State at home last two weeks, now goes to Blacksburg for first time since '06 to play Virginia Tech squad that beat them five games in row, all by 17+ points. Hard to tell much about Tech squad that allowed 9 ppg to three cupcakes, outscoring them 24-3 in 2nd half. Hokies are 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorite. First away game for Clemson team that covered four of last five as road underdog. Tigers lost last two visits to Lane Stadium 24-7 (-5) in '06, 31-11 (+12) in '99
First game in new league for Nebraska; over last decade, they're just 6-11 as road underdog, but 2-1 under Pelini. Cornhuskers allowed average of 157.7 rushing yards, 27 ppg in last three games, but they also ran ball for 861 yards in those games. Wisconsin won its four games by average of 39-9, but none of those teams are any good. Badgers have senior QB in Wilson, who transferred in from NC State; they're 23-15-1 in their last 39 games as a home favorite, 16-12 under Beilema. Huskers completed only 32 of 63 passes in last three games. Badgers have more balance.
Fresno State went to Oxford LY and got crushed 55-38 (+2), giving up 425 rushing yards to Ole Miss, but the '11 Rebels are struggling with the ball, scoring 11 ppg, running for just 61 ypg in losing all three games vs I-A competition. Since 2006, Fresno is mystifying 3-14-1 vs spread as home favorite; they've allowed 34 ppg in 1-2 start vs I-A teams, but all three of those games were on road. Ole Miss is 6-2 as road unerdog with Nutt as coach, but they lost only '11 road game, 30-7 at Vanderbilt.
Writeup
Saturday's best games
Underdogs are 9-2-1 vs spread in last dozen Air Force-Navy games, as Falcons lost last three visits here, by 3-11-3 points. Air Force beat the Middies 14-6 (-9.5) at home LY, their first series win in last eight tries, running ball for 292 yards. Air Force hasn't beaten a I-A team yet, while Navy (+17.5) lost 24-21 at South Carolina two weeks ago, converting 9 of 14 on third down and running ball for 274 yards. Navy is 7-14-1 in its last 22 games as a home fave. Air Force is 12-10-1 as a road dog.
Favorites are 5-2 in Northwestern's last seven visits to Illinois, with the Wildcats winning three of last four; Illini are 5-3 vs spread in last eight as a series favorite, 2-2 here. Since 2008, Illinois is 5-7-1 as a home favorite. Wildcats covered eight of last ten games as a road underdog- they're 1-1 on road this season, winning 24-17 (+3) at Boston College, losing 21-14 (-8) at Army two weeks ago. Illinois is 4-0 but hasn't played anyone of note; they trailed Western Michigan at half last week, won 23-20 (-13).
Underdogs covered six of last seven Georgia Tech-NC State games, with Tech winning last three visits to Raleigh, by 8-10-7 points. Tech covered one of last four as a series favorite- they're 4-0 this year, scoring 50 ppg in three games vs I-A opponents. NC State beat Tech two of last three years after losing previous five meetings, but Wolfpack lost both games vs I-A foes, 34-27 (-2.5) at Wake Forest, 44-14 (+7.5) last Thursday at Cincinnati. Tech has 1,298 rushing yards in its last three games.
Ohio State won its last seven games vs Michigan State, with six of seven wins by 10+ points; Spartans lost lost last four visits here by an average score of 30-20. Favorites covered six of last eight in series, but Spartans are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here. Buckeyes completed 11 of 34 passes in last two games; since 2004, they're 30-17 as a home fave, 1-2 so far this season. MSU covered twice in last seven games as road dog, losing 31-13 (+5) at Notre Dame in only road game this year.
Florida is home dog for first time since 2003. Alabama won 31-6/32-13 in last two games vs Gators; last six series games were decided by 11+ points. This is Tide's first visit to Swamp since '06; they're 9-4 in last 13 games as road favorite, winning 27-11 (-10) in only road game this year, at Penn State. Florida covered seven of last ten games as a dog. Alabama outscored first four opponents 76-22 in second half. Dogs are 4-3-1 vs spread in last eight series games.
Arkansas beat old SWC/future SEC rival Texas A&M 24-17/47-19 last couple years; Razorbacks are 10-7-1 vs spread in game following last 18 losses- they got drilled at Alabama last week. Aggies covered six of last eight as a road favorite, are coming off home loss to Oklahoma State in a game A&M led 20-3 at half- they're 6-10 coming off a loss. Arkansas is 11-8 as a dog under Petrino. Hogs are minus-2 in turnovers in each of its last three games, all of which went over the total.
Utah's first Pac-10 home game is against Washington squad that got beat 51-38 (+17) at Nebraska in its only road game this year. Huskies are 3-1 after beating Cal at home last week- they scored 40-38-31 points in last three games. Since 2006, Utes are 13-9-2 as home favorite, 25-15-1 in conference play; they had last week off after crushing rival BYU 54-10 two weeks ago. Since '07, Huskies are 6-13 as road underdogs. Utes have +9 turnover margin, recovering eight opponent fumbles last two games.
Baylor QB's have thrown 14 TD passes, 13 IPs, but things figure to get tougher in Little Apple vs Kansas State squad that won in rainy Miami last week. Bears lost last three visits here by average score of 46-10, but those games were before Baylor had Briles/Griffin combo. Baylor scored 50-56 in its games vs I-A foes; over last decade, they're 5-0 as a favorite on road. K-State outrushed Miami 265-139 in rain last week, stopping 'canes on goal line in last 1:00. Wildcats are 3-7 in last 10 as home dog.
Mississippi State lost 27-24/47-0 in last two visits to Georgia; MSU is 4-8 in last dozen games as road underdog- they beat Louisiana Tech last week in OT, after consecutive losses to Auburn/LSU, so they're trying to find their way. Georgia outrushed Ole Miss 207-34 last week- since 2003, Dawgs are 15-22-1 as home favorites. Since 2008, State is 7-10 vs spread coming off a win- they were outscored 23-12 in second half of last two games. Georgia's losses are Boise/South Carolina, top 25 clubs.
Auburn won last five games vs South Carolina by average score of 37-15, covering four of five games, winning last three here by 39-7-17 points, but Auburn's defense is lame, allowing 41 of 69 conversions on 3rd down (59.4%)- they gave up 624 yards in 38-24 loss at Clemson, only road tilt of year so far. Tigers are 2-6 in last eight games as road dog. Gamecocks have been tested in tight wins over Georgia (45-42), Navy (24-21); they are 12-9 vs spread in last 21 games as a home favorite.
Clemson beat Auburn/Florida State at home last two weeks, now goes to Blacksburg for first time since '06 to play Virginia Tech squad that beat them five games in row, all by 17+ points. Hard to tell much about Tech squad that allowed 9 ppg to three cupcakes, outscoring them 24-3 in 2nd half. Hokies are 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorite. First away game for Clemson team that covered four of last five as road underdog. Tigers lost last two visits to Lane Stadium 24-7 (-5) in '06, 31-11 (+12) in '99
First game in new league for Nebraska; over last decade, they're just 6-11 as road underdog, but 2-1 under Pelini. Cornhuskers allowed average of 157.7 rushing yards, 27 ppg in last three games, but they also ran ball for 861 yards in those games. Wisconsin won its four games by average of 39-9, but none of those teams are any good. Badgers have senior QB in Wilson, who transferred in from NC State; they're 23-15-1 in their last 39 games as a home favorite, 16-12 under Beilema. Huskers completed only 32 of 63 passes in last three games. Badgers have more balance.
Fresno State went to Oxford LY and got crushed 55-38 (+2), giving up 425 rushing yards to Ole Miss, but the '11 Rebels are struggling with the ball, scoring 11 ppg, running for just 61 ypg in losing all three games vs I-A competition. Since 2006, Fresno is mystifying 3-14-1 vs spread as home favorite; they've allowed 34 ppg in 1-2 start vs I-A teams, but all three of those games were on road. Ole Miss is 6-2 as road unerdog with Nutt as coach, but they lost only '11 road game, 30-7 at Vanderbilt.
SPORTS WAGERS
INDIANA +15 over Penn State
12:00 PM EST. Who the f**k are the Nittany Lions to be favored by 15 points on the road. Yeah, they’re 3-1 and the Hoosiers are 1-3 but Penn St has played three cupcakes and one power (Alabama) and were crushed by the Tide at home by a 27-11 count. When the Nittany Lions went into Temple in week 2, they squeezed out a 14-10 win. Penn State’s offense is brutal. They work the two-headed QB system and through four games they’ve scored 100 points. Keep in mind that they scored 41 and 34 against Indiana St. and Eastern Michigan respectively. The Hoosiers have never beaten the Lions. They’re 0-14 lifetime against Paterno’s bunch and that has influence on bettors and the line. That streak could get broken here. Indiana will look to get this monkey off its back and will be jacked right up to do so. The Hoosiers three losses to Virginia, Ball State and North Texas have been by a combined 13 points. Indiana is averaging over 413 yards of offense per game and while they really haven’t faced a defense like the one they’ll see here, they have two very capable QB’s and a strong receiving corps. Penn State is nothing this year but they’re being billed as a threat in the Big-10. That’s a joke. Hoosiers keep this one well within this range. Play: #129 Indiana +15 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Michigan St +3½/+144 over OHIO ST
3:30 PM EST. We’ll split this one up and play the Spartans for one unit on both the money line and point spread. MSU comes in with a 3-1 record but they’ve beaten three dregs by big scores while losing to Notre Dame by 18. Losing to the Irish is nothing to hang your head over, as the Irish are a quality and dangerous team but the Spartans were supposed to keep it a lot closer than that. With three “nothing” wins on their résumé this season. Michigan St is getting very little respect. What we can assure you is that they’re much better than the Buckeyes and that might be an understatement. OSU also has three wins and one loss. They went into Miami and were crushed by the Canes by a 24-6 count. At home against Toledo, as a 17½-point favorite, the Buckeyes escaped with a scary five-point win. Aside from the loss to the Canes, the Buckeyes have been a 17-point favorite or better in all three games, yet their passing ranks 108th in the nation. This is a one-dimensional offense that will be hard-pressed to move the ball against MSU. By contrast, the Spartans offense is wicked. Kirk Cousins has completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 947 yards. By contrast, OSU QB, Braxton Miller went 5-13 against Colorado for 83 yards. The Spartans had a bad game against the Irish and that brought their stock way down. It happens. If they played them again today, they could just as easily reverse that score. Now they get an opportunity to show who they really are and expose this rebuilding Buckeye club in much the same way that the Canes did. Play: #153 Michigan St +3½ (Risking 1.1 units to win 1). Play: Michigan St +144 (Risking 1 unit).
KANSAS STATE +4½ over Baylor
3:30 PM EST. SIA has the Wildcats taking back 4½ while most everyone else has them taking back 3½. We would play it either way. Baylor won a 47-42 shootout against K-State last year to reach bowl eligibility for the first time since 1994. This year both teams are improved, but it's the home standing Wildcats who have made the most progress from 2010. Kansas State's rush defense was one of the worst in the FBS last season, but this year K-State has upgraded its line play from poor to decent and may have the most improved linebacking corps in the nation. Impressive goal-line stands in back-to-back weeks have this group playing confident football, and while decorated Baylor QB Robert Griffin III will certainly get his yards, the Bears will have to finish drives to keep pace in this affair. This Wildcat team has the rushing attack to limit Baylor's possessions while denting the scoreboard itself. And although Baylor's defense is improved in its own right under new coordinator Phil Bennett, the Bears are still no match for the Wildcats' power offense. Kansas State's win against the Miami Hurricanes was more than just a one-time offer. While coach Bill Snyder's Wildcats are probably a year or two away from true contention in the Big 12, this is clearly a program on the rise again. The whole football world is laying the points here and one thing that remains constant in this sport is that when all the traffic is going one way, it’s usually better to go the other way. Play: #170 Kansas State +4½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Northwestern +10 over ILLINOIS
12:00 mPM EST. Wow, 10 points is a lot of lumber for the Illini to be spotting any quality club and you can double that against a quality club with two weeks to prepare. Not only can Northwestern stay close, they can win this game outright. The Land of Lincoln rivalry has been heating up the past few years and with both teams looking to contend in the new Big Ten divisional format and with both laying claim to the mantle of "Chicago's Team," this year could be the most venomous entry in the series in some time. Northwestern's fire is especially stoked after allowing an embarrassing 519 rushing yards to the Illini in last year's Wrigley Field debacle. Quarterback Dan Persa hasn't played a down of football since that game due to a ruptured Achilles tendon, but he and his quick release will be back under center Saturday behind a veteran offensive line that can blunt Illinois' stout defensive front. Illinois is coming on strong behind a quality pair of second-year coordinators and some solid recruiting classes, but the Illini aren't quite talented enough to prevent this game from boiling down to the coaching mismatch between Ron Zook and Pat Fitzgerald. With a bye week ahead, Northwestern chose to hold a medically cleared Persa out of action against the Army Black Knights to conceal their plans for Big Ten play. It cost them dearly in a loss to the Cadets but will pay off this week as Persa and the rested Wildcats show up in Champaign bent on redemption from last year's laydown. You’re paying a big premium for wagering on the Illini for two reasons. One, they’re ranked and two, they blew this foe away last year. Don’t pay anything. Take the points. Play: #112 Northwestern +10 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Tampa Bay +110 over TEXAS
The Rangers are definitely more comfortable playing at night by so what. They have the second best pitcher on the mound here, they’re an eye-opening 3-10 at home in the playoffs over the past few years and Ron Washington will never out-manage Joe Maddon. James Shields posted a 2.23 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP when it counted most, over his last six starts. All year Shields was consistently hurling quality start after quality start with an elite strikeout rate and a high groundball rate. Derek Holland also had a tremendous year with 16 wins and just five losses. The difference is that Holland had far more implosions than Shields and one could even argue it was all feast or famine for Holland. In 32 starts, he was hit hard in 13 of them, while 19 were considered pure quality starts. Holland also showed a tendency of losing command and falling behind hitters with runners on base. Holland has made great strides this year by utilizing his other pitches more frequently. Prior to this season he had a lifetime ERA of 5.25 and that’s because he threw his fastball 74% of the time. He’s down to 64% of the time this year but this is a big playoff game and he could easily revert back to some bad habits of the past. Regardless, Shields is the superior pitcher, the Rays are rolling along and all of a sudden a whole lot of pressure is on these Rangers bats. Play: Tampa Bay +110 (Risking 2 units).
INDIANA +15 over Penn State
12:00 PM EST. Who the f**k are the Nittany Lions to be favored by 15 points on the road. Yeah, they’re 3-1 and the Hoosiers are 1-3 but Penn St has played three cupcakes and one power (Alabama) and were crushed by the Tide at home by a 27-11 count. When the Nittany Lions went into Temple in week 2, they squeezed out a 14-10 win. Penn State’s offense is brutal. They work the two-headed QB system and through four games they’ve scored 100 points. Keep in mind that they scored 41 and 34 against Indiana St. and Eastern Michigan respectively. The Hoosiers have never beaten the Lions. They’re 0-14 lifetime against Paterno’s bunch and that has influence on bettors and the line. That streak could get broken here. Indiana will look to get this monkey off its back and will be jacked right up to do so. The Hoosiers three losses to Virginia, Ball State and North Texas have been by a combined 13 points. Indiana is averaging over 413 yards of offense per game and while they really haven’t faced a defense like the one they’ll see here, they have two very capable QB’s and a strong receiving corps. Penn State is nothing this year but they’re being billed as a threat in the Big-10. That’s a joke. Hoosiers keep this one well within this range. Play: #129 Indiana +15 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Michigan St +3½/+144 over OHIO ST
3:30 PM EST. We’ll split this one up and play the Spartans for one unit on both the money line and point spread. MSU comes in with a 3-1 record but they’ve beaten three dregs by big scores while losing to Notre Dame by 18. Losing to the Irish is nothing to hang your head over, as the Irish are a quality and dangerous team but the Spartans were supposed to keep it a lot closer than that. With three “nothing” wins on their résumé this season. Michigan St is getting very little respect. What we can assure you is that they’re much better than the Buckeyes and that might be an understatement. OSU also has three wins and one loss. They went into Miami and were crushed by the Canes by a 24-6 count. At home against Toledo, as a 17½-point favorite, the Buckeyes escaped with a scary five-point win. Aside from the loss to the Canes, the Buckeyes have been a 17-point favorite or better in all three games, yet their passing ranks 108th in the nation. This is a one-dimensional offense that will be hard-pressed to move the ball against MSU. By contrast, the Spartans offense is wicked. Kirk Cousins has completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 947 yards. By contrast, OSU QB, Braxton Miller went 5-13 against Colorado for 83 yards. The Spartans had a bad game against the Irish and that brought their stock way down. It happens. If they played them again today, they could just as easily reverse that score. Now they get an opportunity to show who they really are and expose this rebuilding Buckeye club in much the same way that the Canes did. Play: #153 Michigan St +3½ (Risking 1.1 units to win 1). Play: Michigan St +144 (Risking 1 unit).
KANSAS STATE +4½ over Baylor
3:30 PM EST. SIA has the Wildcats taking back 4½ while most everyone else has them taking back 3½. We would play it either way. Baylor won a 47-42 shootout against K-State last year to reach bowl eligibility for the first time since 1994. This year both teams are improved, but it's the home standing Wildcats who have made the most progress from 2010. Kansas State's rush defense was one of the worst in the FBS last season, but this year K-State has upgraded its line play from poor to decent and may have the most improved linebacking corps in the nation. Impressive goal-line stands in back-to-back weeks have this group playing confident football, and while decorated Baylor QB Robert Griffin III will certainly get his yards, the Bears will have to finish drives to keep pace in this affair. This Wildcat team has the rushing attack to limit Baylor's possessions while denting the scoreboard itself. And although Baylor's defense is improved in its own right under new coordinator Phil Bennett, the Bears are still no match for the Wildcats' power offense. Kansas State's win against the Miami Hurricanes was more than just a one-time offer. While coach Bill Snyder's Wildcats are probably a year or two away from true contention in the Big 12, this is clearly a program on the rise again. The whole football world is laying the points here and one thing that remains constant in this sport is that when all the traffic is going one way, it’s usually better to go the other way. Play: #170 Kansas State +4½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Northwestern +10 over ILLINOIS
12:00 mPM EST. Wow, 10 points is a lot of lumber for the Illini to be spotting any quality club and you can double that against a quality club with two weeks to prepare. Not only can Northwestern stay close, they can win this game outright. The Land of Lincoln rivalry has been heating up the past few years and with both teams looking to contend in the new Big Ten divisional format and with both laying claim to the mantle of "Chicago's Team," this year could be the most venomous entry in the series in some time. Northwestern's fire is especially stoked after allowing an embarrassing 519 rushing yards to the Illini in last year's Wrigley Field debacle. Quarterback Dan Persa hasn't played a down of football since that game due to a ruptured Achilles tendon, but he and his quick release will be back under center Saturday behind a veteran offensive line that can blunt Illinois' stout defensive front. Illinois is coming on strong behind a quality pair of second-year coordinators and some solid recruiting classes, but the Illini aren't quite talented enough to prevent this game from boiling down to the coaching mismatch between Ron Zook and Pat Fitzgerald. With a bye week ahead, Northwestern chose to hold a medically cleared Persa out of action against the Army Black Knights to conceal their plans for Big Ten play. It cost them dearly in a loss to the Cadets but will pay off this week as Persa and the rested Wildcats show up in Champaign bent on redemption from last year's laydown. You’re paying a big premium for wagering on the Illini for two reasons. One, they’re ranked and two, they blew this foe away last year. Don’t pay anything. Take the points. Play: #112 Northwestern +10 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Tampa Bay +110 over TEXAS
The Rangers are definitely more comfortable playing at night by so what. They have the second best pitcher on the mound here, they’re an eye-opening 3-10 at home in the playoffs over the past few years and Ron Washington will never out-manage Joe Maddon. James Shields posted a 2.23 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP when it counted most, over his last six starts. All year Shields was consistently hurling quality start after quality start with an elite strikeout rate and a high groundball rate. Derek Holland also had a tremendous year with 16 wins and just five losses. The difference is that Holland had far more implosions than Shields and one could even argue it was all feast or famine for Holland. In 32 starts, he was hit hard in 13 of them, while 19 were considered pure quality starts. Holland also showed a tendency of losing command and falling behind hitters with runners on base. Holland has made great strides this year by utilizing his other pitches more frequently. Prior to this season he had a lifetime ERA of 5.25 and that’s because he threw his fastball 74% of the time. He’s down to 64% of the time this year but this is a big playoff game and he could easily revert back to some bad habits of the past. Regardless, Shields is the superior pitcher, the Rays are rolling along and all of a sudden a whole lot of pressure is on these Rangers bats. Play: Tampa Bay +110 (Risking 2 units).
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
KANSAS STATE+3.5 over Baylor: Wow what a year that RG 3 is having for the Bears, as he has hit 85% of his passes and has more TD's (13) than incompletions (12), but he has yet to face a defense this tough. Sure the Bears rolled up 564 yards and 50 points vs TCU, but that was game 1 and the Horned Frogs had to replace a lot of talent on the defensive side. KSU comes in ranked 6th in total defense (246.3 ypg) and 7th in points allowed (10.3 ppg) and they are fresh off a big win on the road vs a tough Miami squad. The KSU defense has been stout, but their offense hasn't taken off yet as they rank 90th overall (345 ypg) and 84th in scoring (25 ppg), but they did put up 398 yards and 28 points last week vs a very good Miami defense and they will be taking on a Baylor defense that isn't very good. The Baylor defense is ranked 60th (363 ypg) overall and 72nd in points allowed (26.3), but vs FBS foes this defense ranks 99th overall (411 ypg) and 113th in points allowed (39.5 ppg). Last week this Baylor defense faced a Rice offense that was 105th in the nation, but allowed them to put up 31 points and 416 yards, plus the Owls were a solid 9-19 on third downs. As I said this is not a good defense. KSU is off a huge upset win, but don't expect a letdown here as they are playing their Big 12 opener vs a 16th ranked team. Baylor has the Edge on offense, but KSU has huge edges on defense and special team, plus they are at home and getting points. Smells like an outright upset to me. KEY TREND--- The Cats are 14-0 ATS with revenge in the first of BB home games.
4 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Northwestern +10 over ILLINOIS: Illinois is off to a fine 4-0 start, but 2 of those wins were vs FCS foes and 1 was vs MAC foe Western Michigan (they needed a 4th quarter rally) and all 4 of their wins so far have been at home. An interesting trend is that teams in the 5th game of a home stand are 0-5-1 ATS if they are playing off an ATS loss of 6 or more, plus we also note that the Cats are 10-1 ATS as dogs off a SU loss of 6 or more. The only real team that Illinois has played spo far and they needed a late comeback to beat ASU. Last year Illinois gave Northwestern their biggest defeat of the year, winning 48-27, but their was one important ingredient missing for the Cats in that one and that was QB Dan Persa. Dan Persa is considered by many as the best QB in the Big 10 and having the bye week to prepare and get himself ready for this one will really help. Actually he knew before the season began that this would be his return game so he has been studying plenty of film on the Illini just to get ready for this one. Last year before his injury he completed 73% of his passes for 2581 yards, with 15 TD's to just 4 INT's. This year Northwestern QB's have thrown for just 498 yards with 3 TD's and 1 INT. As you can see they are glad to have him back. The Illinois defense is very tough to run on, but they can be thrown upon as they are 74th vs the pass, allowing 231 ypg so far. The Cat's do play a bend but don't break style of defense as they are 86th in yards allowed (402 ypg) but just 33 in points allowed (19.7 ppg). This game is big for the Cats after getting crushed last year and with Persa back they should be able to keep it close, especially vs an Illinois team that may be a bit complacent playing their 5th in a row at home. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any game 4 road team if they are off a SU & ATS loss before their bye, if that loss was their initial loss of the year and as long as they were not dogs of more than 3 points in that loss. This has gone 13-2 the last 15 times it came up.
LOUISIANA TECH -4.5 over Hawaii: The Schedule has been tough for the rainbows in the early going as this will be their third mainland trip in the first 5 weeks. They are already 0-2 in these trips including a 20 point loss at UNLV, which is one of the worst teams in CFB. This high powered Hawaii offense comes in ranked 12th in passing (326.8 ypg), but just 56th overall (414 ypg), while a closer look shows us that vs FBS foes they are just 88th in total offense (340.3 ypg) and 41st in passing (265 ypg). Bryan Moniz is one of the better QB's around and he does have 11 TD's on the year, but 7 of those were in the first half of last week's game vs FCS foe Cal-Davis. This offense is good but hasn't really clicked yet vs the FBS and they should have more problems today vs a good Bulldog defense. Louisiana Tech comes in ranked 61st in total defense and 58th in points allowed vs FBS foes. This is a defense that will just get better as the season goes on and they should have a good showing vs a Hawaii offense that was able to put up just 20 points vs a BAD UNLV defense in their last road game. The LA Tech offense hasn't been that great, ranking just 84th in total offense, but this Hawaii defense has really struggled on the road allowing 40 points in each of their 2 mainland trips this year. La Tech has played in bad luck this year and they are 1-3, but those 3 losses have been by a combined 9 points. I see them putting forth their best effort of the year thus far vs a tired Hawaii squad and walk away with win of at least a TD. KEY TRENDS--- The Host is 7-0 ATS the last 7 in the series and LA Tech is 9-1 ATS in conference openers.
3 UNIT PLAYS
VIRGINIA TECH -7 over Clemson: No rest for this Clemson team as they must now travel to Blacksburg after facing FSU last week. The Clemson Tigers are 4-0 on the year, but it has not been easy for them. They were down at the half vs Troy, only won by 8 over FCS Wooford had a tough game vs Auburn before pulling away late and had a back and forth game vs FSU last week. The Clemson offense has been very good this year, ranking 7th overall (515 ypg) and 16th in scoring (38.7) vs FBS foes. The going won't be so easy vs this defense. The Hokie defense is ranked 4th overall (231 ypg) and 6th in points allowed 10 ppg and they are a much more dominant unit than Clemson has faced so far this year. Yes Clemson can score, but their defense has been bad this year, checking in at 89th overall (405 ypg) and 65th in points allowed (25 ppg), plus they are 85th vs the run, allowing 176 ypg. That isn't very good here vs a Hokie offense that is 30th in rushing at 211 ypg. The Tigers has a small offensive edge, but the Hokies have huge edges on defense and special teams, plus we also note that while Clemson is off 2 straight emotional home games vs Auburn and FSU, VA Tech has been getting ready for this one with 4 straight non-BSC schools. Look for a solid DD win by the Hokies in this one. KEY TRENDS--- The Hokies are 36-14 ATS as faves of 3.5 to 10 and 13-2 ATS after 3 or more consecutive Unders.
Air Force +3.5 over NAVY: A lot of teams are at a disadvantage when facing the Naval Academy, but not this Air Force group as they both run the same Option offense. The Navy offense does come in ranked 4th in rushing at 358 ypg, but they don't have the better rushing offense on the field today as Air Force checks in with the top ground game as they have averaged 412 ypg on the ground so far. Not only can Air Force run, but they can throw a little as they have put up 153 ypg through the air so far, compared to Navy throwing for just 69 ypg. Ok we see that Air Force gets the offensive edge, but they also have a slight defense edge, especially vs the run as they are 9th vs the run, but Navy is 100th vs the run. Look for the Air Force offense to have the better showing here vs a Navy defense that is weak and really hasn't even played a great offense so far. Air Force wins outright. KEY TRENDS--- Navy is 2-11 ATS as a home favorite vs an opponent off a win, while Air Force is 17-3 ATS in road openers, plus 10-2 ATS as road dogs off a non-conference game.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Penn State/ Indiana Under 48: The Penn State defense is back and playing some very good football right now as they come in ranked 8th overall (249 ypg) and 10th in points allowed (12.5 ppg). The offense for the lions hasn't gotten on track this year as they are 90th overall (346.5 ypg) and 84th in points allowed (25 ppg). The Indiana offense has been decent, putting up 27.5 ppg, but any one can do that vs the teams they've played thus far (Ball state, SC State, Virginia and North Texas). They won't come close to 25 points vs this defense. The Indiana defense has been OK, and they should be able to hold down this struggling Penn state offense that has averaged just 19.7 ppg vs FBS foes this year. Neither offense is playing well enough right now to expect this game to hit 49+ points. I expect Penn State to get NO MORE than 35 in this one and I really don't feel that Indiana can get 14 points vs this tough defense. I expect a game in the low 40's here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The OU is 18-46 when a road team allowed 75 or less rushing yards last game and are playing a team that gained 75 yards rushing or less last game, if the OU line is 42.5 to 49.
2 UNIT PLAYS
UCLA +21.5 over STANFORD: The Bruins are in revenge mode here after suffering their first home shutout loss since 1999 to these Cardinals last year. Stanford has a powerful offense with the best QB in the land in Andrew Luck, but a couple of his weapons are banged up as RB Chris Owusu and top WR Coby Fleener are both listed as questionable. The Bruin defense has struggled so far, but I do look for their best effort of the year. I mean how can ya not get up to play against Andrew Luck. Last week the Cardinal lost a very important part of their defense when LB Shayne Skov was lost for the year and he was one of the best in the nation at that position. He will be missed vs a UCLA offense that isn't that bad, putting up 411 ypg and 27 ppg thus far. I just don't see the Cardinal being able to win by more than 3 TD's in this one.
IOWA STATE +9 over Texas: I expected the Longhorns to be more dominant than they have been this year, but it hasn't panned out that way. Sure they blew out UCLA in their last game, but the Bruins also helped them with sloppy turnovers and poor special teams play. Sure the revenge factor is in play, but the Cyclones 3 games thus far have been decided by 34 points or less and I do feel that they can keep it close here. We also note that Game 4 Conference home dogs off a bye are 15-2 ATS, if they won their last game before their bye. State keeps it close here.
5 UNIT PLAY
KANSAS STATE+3.5 over Baylor: Wow what a year that RG 3 is having for the Bears, as he has hit 85% of his passes and has more TD's (13) than incompletions (12), but he has yet to face a defense this tough. Sure the Bears rolled up 564 yards and 50 points vs TCU, but that was game 1 and the Horned Frogs had to replace a lot of talent on the defensive side. KSU comes in ranked 6th in total defense (246.3 ypg) and 7th in points allowed (10.3 ppg) and they are fresh off a big win on the road vs a tough Miami squad. The KSU defense has been stout, but their offense hasn't taken off yet as they rank 90th overall (345 ypg) and 84th in scoring (25 ppg), but they did put up 398 yards and 28 points last week vs a very good Miami defense and they will be taking on a Baylor defense that isn't very good. The Baylor defense is ranked 60th (363 ypg) overall and 72nd in points allowed (26.3), but vs FBS foes this defense ranks 99th overall (411 ypg) and 113th in points allowed (39.5 ppg). Last week this Baylor defense faced a Rice offense that was 105th in the nation, but allowed them to put up 31 points and 416 yards, plus the Owls were a solid 9-19 on third downs. As I said this is not a good defense. KSU is off a huge upset win, but don't expect a letdown here as they are playing their Big 12 opener vs a 16th ranked team. Baylor has the Edge on offense, but KSU has huge edges on defense and special team, plus they are at home and getting points. Smells like an outright upset to me. KEY TREND--- The Cats are 14-0 ATS with revenge in the first of BB home games.
4 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Northwestern +10 over ILLINOIS: Illinois is off to a fine 4-0 start, but 2 of those wins were vs FCS foes and 1 was vs MAC foe Western Michigan (they needed a 4th quarter rally) and all 4 of their wins so far have been at home. An interesting trend is that teams in the 5th game of a home stand are 0-5-1 ATS if they are playing off an ATS loss of 6 or more, plus we also note that the Cats are 10-1 ATS as dogs off a SU loss of 6 or more. The only real team that Illinois has played spo far and they needed a late comeback to beat ASU. Last year Illinois gave Northwestern their biggest defeat of the year, winning 48-27, but their was one important ingredient missing for the Cats in that one and that was QB Dan Persa. Dan Persa is considered by many as the best QB in the Big 10 and having the bye week to prepare and get himself ready for this one will really help. Actually he knew before the season began that this would be his return game so he has been studying plenty of film on the Illini just to get ready for this one. Last year before his injury he completed 73% of his passes for 2581 yards, with 15 TD's to just 4 INT's. This year Northwestern QB's have thrown for just 498 yards with 3 TD's and 1 INT. As you can see they are glad to have him back. The Illinois defense is very tough to run on, but they can be thrown upon as they are 74th vs the pass, allowing 231 ypg so far. The Cat's do play a bend but don't break style of defense as they are 86th in yards allowed (402 ypg) but just 33 in points allowed (19.7 ppg). This game is big for the Cats after getting crushed last year and with Persa back they should be able to keep it close, especially vs an Illinois team that may be a bit complacent playing their 5th in a row at home. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any game 4 road team if they are off a SU & ATS loss before their bye, if that loss was their initial loss of the year and as long as they were not dogs of more than 3 points in that loss. This has gone 13-2 the last 15 times it came up.
LOUISIANA TECH -4.5 over Hawaii: The Schedule has been tough for the rainbows in the early going as this will be their third mainland trip in the first 5 weeks. They are already 0-2 in these trips including a 20 point loss at UNLV, which is one of the worst teams in CFB. This high powered Hawaii offense comes in ranked 12th in passing (326.8 ypg), but just 56th overall (414 ypg), while a closer look shows us that vs FBS foes they are just 88th in total offense (340.3 ypg) and 41st in passing (265 ypg). Bryan Moniz is one of the better QB's around and he does have 11 TD's on the year, but 7 of those were in the first half of last week's game vs FCS foe Cal-Davis. This offense is good but hasn't really clicked yet vs the FBS and they should have more problems today vs a good Bulldog defense. Louisiana Tech comes in ranked 61st in total defense and 58th in points allowed vs FBS foes. This is a defense that will just get better as the season goes on and they should have a good showing vs a Hawaii offense that was able to put up just 20 points vs a BAD UNLV defense in their last road game. The LA Tech offense hasn't been that great, ranking just 84th in total offense, but this Hawaii defense has really struggled on the road allowing 40 points in each of their 2 mainland trips this year. La Tech has played in bad luck this year and they are 1-3, but those 3 losses have been by a combined 9 points. I see them putting forth their best effort of the year thus far vs a tired Hawaii squad and walk away with win of at least a TD. KEY TRENDS--- The Host is 7-0 ATS the last 7 in the series and LA Tech is 9-1 ATS in conference openers.
3 UNIT PLAYS
VIRGINIA TECH -7 over Clemson: No rest for this Clemson team as they must now travel to Blacksburg after facing FSU last week. The Clemson Tigers are 4-0 on the year, but it has not been easy for them. They were down at the half vs Troy, only won by 8 over FCS Wooford had a tough game vs Auburn before pulling away late and had a back and forth game vs FSU last week. The Clemson offense has been very good this year, ranking 7th overall (515 ypg) and 16th in scoring (38.7) vs FBS foes. The going won't be so easy vs this defense. The Hokie defense is ranked 4th overall (231 ypg) and 6th in points allowed 10 ppg and they are a much more dominant unit than Clemson has faced so far this year. Yes Clemson can score, but their defense has been bad this year, checking in at 89th overall (405 ypg) and 65th in points allowed (25 ppg), plus they are 85th vs the run, allowing 176 ypg. That isn't very good here vs a Hokie offense that is 30th in rushing at 211 ypg. The Tigers has a small offensive edge, but the Hokies have huge edges on defense and special teams, plus we also note that while Clemson is off 2 straight emotional home games vs Auburn and FSU, VA Tech has been getting ready for this one with 4 straight non-BSC schools. Look for a solid DD win by the Hokies in this one. KEY TRENDS--- The Hokies are 36-14 ATS as faves of 3.5 to 10 and 13-2 ATS after 3 or more consecutive Unders.
Air Force +3.5 over NAVY: A lot of teams are at a disadvantage when facing the Naval Academy, but not this Air Force group as they both run the same Option offense. The Navy offense does come in ranked 4th in rushing at 358 ypg, but they don't have the better rushing offense on the field today as Air Force checks in with the top ground game as they have averaged 412 ypg on the ground so far. Not only can Air Force run, but they can throw a little as they have put up 153 ypg through the air so far, compared to Navy throwing for just 69 ypg. Ok we see that Air Force gets the offensive edge, but they also have a slight defense edge, especially vs the run as they are 9th vs the run, but Navy is 100th vs the run. Look for the Air Force offense to have the better showing here vs a Navy defense that is weak and really hasn't even played a great offense so far. Air Force wins outright. KEY TRENDS--- Navy is 2-11 ATS as a home favorite vs an opponent off a win, while Air Force is 17-3 ATS in road openers, plus 10-2 ATS as road dogs off a non-conference game.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Penn State/ Indiana Under 48: The Penn State defense is back and playing some very good football right now as they come in ranked 8th overall (249 ypg) and 10th in points allowed (12.5 ppg). The offense for the lions hasn't gotten on track this year as they are 90th overall (346.5 ypg) and 84th in points allowed (25 ppg). The Indiana offense has been decent, putting up 27.5 ppg, but any one can do that vs the teams they've played thus far (Ball state, SC State, Virginia and North Texas). They won't come close to 25 points vs this defense. The Indiana defense has been OK, and they should be able to hold down this struggling Penn state offense that has averaged just 19.7 ppg vs FBS foes this year. Neither offense is playing well enough right now to expect this game to hit 49+ points. I expect Penn State to get NO MORE than 35 in this one and I really don't feel that Indiana can get 14 points vs this tough defense. I expect a game in the low 40's here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The OU is 18-46 when a road team allowed 75 or less rushing yards last game and are playing a team that gained 75 yards rushing or less last game, if the OU line is 42.5 to 49.
2 UNIT PLAYS
UCLA +21.5 over STANFORD: The Bruins are in revenge mode here after suffering their first home shutout loss since 1999 to these Cardinals last year. Stanford has a powerful offense with the best QB in the land in Andrew Luck, but a couple of his weapons are banged up as RB Chris Owusu and top WR Coby Fleener are both listed as questionable. The Bruin defense has struggled so far, but I do look for their best effort of the year. I mean how can ya not get up to play against Andrew Luck. Last week the Cardinal lost a very important part of their defense when LB Shayne Skov was lost for the year and he was one of the best in the nation at that position. He will be missed vs a UCLA offense that isn't that bad, putting up 411 ypg and 27 ppg thus far. I just don't see the Cardinal being able to win by more than 3 TD's in this one.
IOWA STATE +9 over Texas: I expected the Longhorns to be more dominant than they have been this year, but it hasn't panned out that way. Sure they blew out UCLA in their last game, but the Bruins also helped them with sloppy turnovers and poor special teams play. Sure the revenge factor is in play, but the Cyclones 3 games thus far have been decided by 34 points or less and I do feel that they can keep it close here. We also note that Game 4 Conference home dogs off a bye are 15-2 ATS, if they won their last game before their bye. State keeps it close here.
FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
MLB Baseball Saturday
Play Philadelphia (-215) over St. Louis (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 5:00 PM EST
Roy Halladay has won 12 of the last 15 day games and he has also won 18 of the last 21 games when the total posted is seven runs or less. Roy Halladay has won 9 of the last 10 games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he has an ERA of 2.10 vs. St. Louis over his career.
Play Arizona (+125) over Milwaukee (Bonus)
Starts at 2:05 PM EST
Play Tampa Bay (+105) over Texas (Bonus)
Starts at 7:05 PM EST
MLB Baseball Saturday
Play Philadelphia (-215) over St. Louis (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 5:00 PM EST
Roy Halladay has won 12 of the last 15 day games and he has also won 18 of the last 21 games when the total posted is seven runs or less. Roy Halladay has won 9 of the last 10 games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he has an ERA of 2.10 vs. St. Louis over his career.
Play Arizona (+125) over Milwaukee (Bonus)
Starts at 2:05 PM EST
Play Tampa Bay (+105) over Texas (Bonus)
Starts at 7:05 PM EST
NCAA Football Game Picks
Alabama at Florida
The Tide look to take advantage of a Florida team that is coming off a 48-10 win over Kentucky and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games after scoring 40 points or more in the previous game. Alabama is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tide favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.
<table id="table6" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4"><tbody><tr> <td style="height:38;width:566">SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1
Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (9/28)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 109-110: Air Force at Navy (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 89.486; Navy 90.493
Dunkel Line: Navy by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Navy by 3; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+3); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 111-112: Northwestern at Illinois (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 88.780; Illinois 94.196
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 5 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Illinois by 8; 50
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+8); Uner</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 113-114: Minnesota at Michigan (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 74.838; Michigan 100.573
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 25 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Michigan by 19 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-19 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 115-116: Wake Forest at Boston College (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 86.123; Boston College 82.721
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 3 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 2 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-2 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 117-118: Rutgers at Syracuse (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 86.426; Syracuse 85.442
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 1; 53
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 2 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+2 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 119-120: Toledo at Temple (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 87.812; Temple 92.636
Dunkel Line: Temple by 5; 57
Vegas Line: Temple by 7 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+7 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 121-122: Bowling Green at West Virginia (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 78.039; West Virginia 100.334
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 22 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 19 1/2; 61
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-19 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 123-124: Idaho at Virginia (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 72.030; Virginia 85.873
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 14; 48
Vegas Line: Virginia by 17; 54
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+17); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 125-126: Buffalo at Tennessee (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 71.752; Tennessee 98.322
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 26 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 28 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+28 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 127-128: Tulane at Army (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 67.991; Army 85.971
Dunkel Line: Army by 18; 57
Vegas Line: Army by 7 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Army (-7 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 129-130: Penn State at Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 94.003; Indiana 75.989
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 18; 44
Vegas Line: Penn State by 16; 47
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-16); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 131-132: Georgia Tech at NC State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 97.293; NC State 83.258
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 14; 66
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 9 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-9 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 133-134: Western Michigan at Connecticut (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 86.440; Connecticut 88.046
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 1 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+3); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 135-136: Akron at Eastern Michigan (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 58.372; Eastern Michigan 64.456
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 6; 49
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 8 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+8 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 137-138: Cincinnati at Miami (OH) (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 95.126; Miami (OH) 78.857
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 16 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 14; 56
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-14); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 139-140: Kent at Ohio (0:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent 66.307; Ohio 84.223
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 18; 51
Vegas Line: Ohio by 16; 47
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-16); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 141-142: Texas Tech at Kansas (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 89.938; Kansas 85.008
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 5; 66
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 6 1/2; 67 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+6 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 143-144: Nevada at Boise State (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 88.684; Boise State 115.172
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 26 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Boise State by 27 1/2; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+27 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 145-146: Washington State at Colorado (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 84.690; Colorado 84.999
Dunkel Line: Even; 57
Vegas Line: Colorado by 3; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+3); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 147-148: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 83.050; Central Michigan 79.935
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 3; 64
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 9; 59
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+9); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 149-150: UCLA at Stanford (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 85.235; Stanford 114.136
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 29; 52
Vegas Line: Stanford by 20 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-20 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 151-152: Texas at Iowa State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 98.988; Iowa State 83.836
Dunkel Line: Texas by 15; 53
Vegas Line: Texas by 9 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-9 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 153-154: Michigan State at Ohio State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 97.000; Ohio State 99.531
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 2 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+3 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 155-156: Alabama at Florida (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 113.838; Florida 103.108
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 10 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Alabama by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-3 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 157-158: Marshall at Louisville (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 71.720; Louisville 87.744
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 16; 47
Vegas Line: Louisville by 10; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-10); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 159-160: Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 99.777; Arkansas 99.090
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 1; 68
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 3; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+3); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 161-162: Arizona at USC (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 89.767; USC 99.819
Dunkel Line: USC by 10; 52
Vegas Line: USC by 13 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+13 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 163-164: Washington at Utah (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 92.289; Utah 101.653
Dunkel Line: Utah by 9 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Utah by 7; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-7); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 165-166: San Jose State at Colorado State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 72.640; Colorado State 73.867
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+3 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 167-168: Oregon State at Arizona State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 80.168; Arizona State 104.766
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 24 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 18; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-18); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 169-170: Baylor at Kansas State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 99.430; Kansas State 95.231
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 4; 61
Vegas Line: Baylor by 3 1/2; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-3 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 171-172: Ball State at Oklahoma (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 71.841; Oklahoma 116.376
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 44 1/2; 69
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 37; 60
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-37); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 173-174: Hawaii at Louisiana Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 87.226; Louisiana Tech 87.555
Dunkel Line: Even; 57
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 3 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+3 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 175-176: Mississippi State at Georgia (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 96.931; Georgia 101.272
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 4 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Georgia by 7; 53
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+7); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 177-178: Auburn at South Carolina (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 90.948; South Carolina 103.197
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 12 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 9 1/2; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-9 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 179-180: Rice at Southern Mississippi (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 74.728; Southern Mississippi 91.819
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 17; 56
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 15; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-15); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 181-182: Clemson at Virginia Tech (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 99.053; Virginia Tech 103.364
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 4 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+7); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 183-184: New Mexico State at New Mexico (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 66.631; New Mexico 64.934
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 1 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 2 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+2 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 185-186: North Carolina at East Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 92.919; East Carolina 81.522
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 11 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 6; 59
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-6); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 187-188: Nebraska at Wisconsin (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 101.245; Wisconsin 108.934
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 7 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 9 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+9 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 189-190: Kentucky at LSU (12:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 77.800; LSU 114.812
Dunkel Line: LSU by 37; 48
Vegas Line: LSU by 29; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-29); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 191-192: Notre Dame at Purdue (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 100.793; Purdue 80.101
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 20 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 12; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-12); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 193-194: Mississippi at Fresno State (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 82.390; Fresno State 83.778
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 1 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 4; 53
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+4); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 195-196: Arkansas State at Western Kentucky (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 83.383; Western Kentucky 58.998
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 24 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 12 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-12 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 197-198: Duke at Florida International (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 85.164; Florida International 84.536
Dunkel Line: Duke by 1; 54
Vegas Line: Florida International by 3; 56
Dunkel Pick: Duke (+3); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 199-200: UAB at Troy (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 62.235; Troy 83.985
Dunkel Line: Troy by 21 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Troy by 16 1/2; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-16 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 201-202: Florida Atlantic at UL-Lafayette (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 65.009; UL-Lafayette 71.998
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 7; 44
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 9 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+9 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 203-204: Memphis at Middle Tennessee State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 56.641; Middle Tennessee State 73.942
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 17 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 23; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+23); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 239-240: SMU at TCU (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 87.543; TCU 97.430
Dunkel Line: TCU by 10; 60
Vegas Line: TCU by 11 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (+11 1/2); Over</td></tr></tbody></table>
Alabama at Florida
The Tide look to take advantage of a Florida team that is coming off a 48-10 win over Kentucky and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games after scoring 40 points or more in the previous game. Alabama is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tide favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.
<table id="table6" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4"><tbody><tr> <td style="height:38;width:566">SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1
Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (9/28)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 109-110: Air Force at Navy (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 89.486; Navy 90.493
Dunkel Line: Navy by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Navy by 3; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+3); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 111-112: Northwestern at Illinois (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 88.780; Illinois 94.196
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 5 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Illinois by 8; 50
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+8); Uner</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 113-114: Minnesota at Michigan (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 74.838; Michigan 100.573
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 25 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Michigan by 19 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-19 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 115-116: Wake Forest at Boston College (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 86.123; Boston College 82.721
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 3 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 2 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-2 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 117-118: Rutgers at Syracuse (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 86.426; Syracuse 85.442
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 1; 53
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 2 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+2 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 119-120: Toledo at Temple (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 87.812; Temple 92.636
Dunkel Line: Temple by 5; 57
Vegas Line: Temple by 7 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+7 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 121-122: Bowling Green at West Virginia (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 78.039; West Virginia 100.334
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 22 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 19 1/2; 61
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-19 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 123-124: Idaho at Virginia (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 72.030; Virginia 85.873
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 14; 48
Vegas Line: Virginia by 17; 54
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+17); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 125-126: Buffalo at Tennessee (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 71.752; Tennessee 98.322
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 26 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 28 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+28 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 127-128: Tulane at Army (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 67.991; Army 85.971
Dunkel Line: Army by 18; 57
Vegas Line: Army by 7 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Army (-7 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 129-130: Penn State at Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 94.003; Indiana 75.989
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 18; 44
Vegas Line: Penn State by 16; 47
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-16); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 131-132: Georgia Tech at NC State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 97.293; NC State 83.258
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 14; 66
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 9 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-9 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 133-134: Western Michigan at Connecticut (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 86.440; Connecticut 88.046
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 1 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+3); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 135-136: Akron at Eastern Michigan (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 58.372; Eastern Michigan 64.456
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 6; 49
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 8 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+8 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 137-138: Cincinnati at Miami (OH) (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 95.126; Miami (OH) 78.857
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 16 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 14; 56
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-14); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 139-140: Kent at Ohio (0:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent 66.307; Ohio 84.223
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 18; 51
Vegas Line: Ohio by 16; 47
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-16); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 141-142: Texas Tech at Kansas (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 89.938; Kansas 85.008
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 5; 66
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 6 1/2; 67 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+6 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 143-144: Nevada at Boise State (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 88.684; Boise State 115.172
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 26 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Boise State by 27 1/2; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+27 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 145-146: Washington State at Colorado (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 84.690; Colorado 84.999
Dunkel Line: Even; 57
Vegas Line: Colorado by 3; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+3); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 147-148: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 83.050; Central Michigan 79.935
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 3; 64
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 9; 59
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+9); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 149-150: UCLA at Stanford (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 85.235; Stanford 114.136
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 29; 52
Vegas Line: Stanford by 20 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-20 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 151-152: Texas at Iowa State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 98.988; Iowa State 83.836
Dunkel Line: Texas by 15; 53
Vegas Line: Texas by 9 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-9 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 153-154: Michigan State at Ohio State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 97.000; Ohio State 99.531
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 2 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+3 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 155-156: Alabama at Florida (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 113.838; Florida 103.108
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 10 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Alabama by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-3 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 157-158: Marshall at Louisville (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 71.720; Louisville 87.744
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 16; 47
Vegas Line: Louisville by 10; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-10); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 159-160: Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 99.777; Arkansas 99.090
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 1; 68
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 3; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+3); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 161-162: Arizona at USC (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 89.767; USC 99.819
Dunkel Line: USC by 10; 52
Vegas Line: USC by 13 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+13 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 163-164: Washington at Utah (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 92.289; Utah 101.653
Dunkel Line: Utah by 9 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Utah by 7; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-7); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 165-166: San Jose State at Colorado State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 72.640; Colorado State 73.867
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+3 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 167-168: Oregon State at Arizona State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 80.168; Arizona State 104.766
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 24 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 18; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-18); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 169-170: Baylor at Kansas State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 99.430; Kansas State 95.231
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 4; 61
Vegas Line: Baylor by 3 1/2; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-3 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 171-172: Ball State at Oklahoma (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 71.841; Oklahoma 116.376
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 44 1/2; 69
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 37; 60
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-37); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 173-174: Hawaii at Louisiana Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 87.226; Louisiana Tech 87.555
Dunkel Line: Even; 57
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 3 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+3 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 175-176: Mississippi State at Georgia (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 96.931; Georgia 101.272
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 4 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Georgia by 7; 53
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+7); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 177-178: Auburn at South Carolina (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 90.948; South Carolina 103.197
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 12 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 9 1/2; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-9 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 179-180: Rice at Southern Mississippi (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 74.728; Southern Mississippi 91.819
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 17; 56
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 15; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-15); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 181-182: Clemson at Virginia Tech (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 99.053; Virginia Tech 103.364
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 4 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+7); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 183-184: New Mexico State at New Mexico (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 66.631; New Mexico 64.934
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 1 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 2 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+2 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 185-186: North Carolina at East Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 92.919; East Carolina 81.522
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 11 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 6; 59
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-6); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 187-188: Nebraska at Wisconsin (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 101.245; Wisconsin 108.934
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 7 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 9 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+9 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 189-190: Kentucky at LSU (12:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 77.800; LSU 114.812
Dunkel Line: LSU by 37; 48
Vegas Line: LSU by 29; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-29); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 191-192: Notre Dame at Purdue (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 100.793; Purdue 80.101
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 20 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 12; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-12); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 193-194: Mississippi at Fresno State (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 82.390; Fresno State 83.778
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 1 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 4; 53
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+4); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 195-196: Arkansas State at Western Kentucky (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 83.383; Western Kentucky 58.998
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 24 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 12 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-12 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 197-198: Duke at Florida International (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 85.164; Florida International 84.536
Dunkel Line: Duke by 1; 54
Vegas Line: Florida International by 3; 56
Dunkel Pick: Duke (+3); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 199-200: UAB at Troy (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 62.235; Troy 83.985
Dunkel Line: Troy by 21 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Troy by 16 1/2; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-16 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 201-202: Florida Atlantic at UL-Lafayette (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 65.009; UL-Lafayette 71.998
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 7; 44
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 9 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+9 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 203-204: Memphis at Middle Tennessee State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 56.641; Middle Tennessee State 73.942
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 17 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 23; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+23); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 239-240: SMU at TCU (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 87.543; TCU 97.430
Dunkel Line: TCU by 10; 60
Vegas Line: TCU by 11 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (+11 1/2); Over</td></tr></tbody></table>
SPORTS WAGERS CFL
CALGARY -5½ over Saskatchewan
The Stamps are definitely an erratic bunch and an underachieving one too. There’s also talk of some tension within, as Joffrey Reynolds has been told that he’s no longer #1 on the depth chart. He doesn’t like that and has made it clear. Having said that, who really cares about a whining prima donna? His teammates will probably come out and have their best game of the year and shut this guy up. Nobody wants to hear it. Calgary allowed an embarrassing 55 points against last week in Hamilton. If that doesn’t wake them up nothing will. The good news is that they put up 36 of their own and during a three-game August winning streak in August the Stamps scored 32, 45 and 38 points respectively. That seems like a while ago but over an 18-game schedule almost every team will hit a peak and a valley. Calgary hit their low last week and we should see a much-more focused club this week. The ascending begins again. The Riders hit their peak with a three-game winning streak before getting whacked last week by the surging Lions. That loss could carry over and while the Riders have been the better club over the last month, they’re not in Calgary’s class. In fact, the Stamps have won both games this year against the Riders and both games were in Saskatchewan. No reason to think that the Riders can return the favor against a highly motivated host in a good spot after back-to-back blowout losses. Play: Calgary –5½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
TORONTO +4 over Hamilton
Argos had a very nice win over the Bombers last week and in the process of that win, Steven Jyles got another week under his belt. Jyles hasn’t been sharp but give him time, as he’s about two months behind schedule of everyone else and every game we should see improvement. Toronto also has the CFL’s best defense in terms of yards allowed and that counts for something. The Ticats may be a little too high after dismantling of Stamps. All year it’s been feast or famine for the Tabbies and much like the Stampeders, they’re an erratic bunch that can’t be trusted when they’re expected to win. But if not for the fact that Ejiro Kuale of the Argos guaranteed a victory over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in the immediate euphoria of his team's upset victory over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, we’d be on Toronto. It makes no sense to motivate a club, especially when you’re the team that is 3-8. You let your play on the field do your talking. In any even, not comfortable endorsing either side, especially with the unpredictable history these two have against one another. Play: Toronto +4 (No bets).
CALGARY -5½ over Saskatchewan
The Stamps are definitely an erratic bunch and an underachieving one too. There’s also talk of some tension within, as Joffrey Reynolds has been told that he’s no longer #1 on the depth chart. He doesn’t like that and has made it clear. Having said that, who really cares about a whining prima donna? His teammates will probably come out and have their best game of the year and shut this guy up. Nobody wants to hear it. Calgary allowed an embarrassing 55 points against last week in Hamilton. If that doesn’t wake them up nothing will. The good news is that they put up 36 of their own and during a three-game August winning streak in August the Stamps scored 32, 45 and 38 points respectively. That seems like a while ago but over an 18-game schedule almost every team will hit a peak and a valley. Calgary hit their low last week and we should see a much-more focused club this week. The ascending begins again. The Riders hit their peak with a three-game winning streak before getting whacked last week by the surging Lions. That loss could carry over and while the Riders have been the better club over the last month, they’re not in Calgary’s class. In fact, the Stamps have won both games this year against the Riders and both games were in Saskatchewan. No reason to think that the Riders can return the favor against a highly motivated host in a good spot after back-to-back blowout losses. Play: Calgary –5½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
TORONTO +4 over Hamilton
Argos had a very nice win over the Bombers last week and in the process of that win, Steven Jyles got another week under his belt. Jyles hasn’t been sharp but give him time, as he’s about two months behind schedule of everyone else and every game we should see improvement. Toronto also has the CFL’s best defense in terms of yards allowed and that counts for something. The Ticats may be a little too high after dismantling of Stamps. All year it’s been feast or famine for the Tabbies and much like the Stampeders, they’re an erratic bunch that can’t be trusted when they’re expected to win. But if not for the fact that Ejiro Kuale of the Argos guaranteed a victory over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in the immediate euphoria of his team's upset victory over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, we’d be on Toronto. It makes no sense to motivate a club, especially when you’re the team that is 3-8. You let your play on the field do your talking. In any even, not comfortable endorsing either side, especially with the unpredictable history these two have against one another. Play: Toronto +4 (No bets).
Today's MLB Picks
Arizona at Milwaukee
The Diamondbacks look to open the series and build on their 11-2 record in Ian Kennedy's last 13 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Arizona is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120). Here are all of today's picks.
<table cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4" width="538"><tbody><tr> <td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17" width="522">SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17" width="522">Game 955-956: Arizona at Milwaukee (2:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 16.135; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.353
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17" width="522">Game 957-958: St. Louis at Philadelphia (5:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 15.288; Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.679
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-210); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17" width="522">Game 959-960: Tampa Bay at Texas (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.562; Texas (Holland) 16.160
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-120); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height:5" width="522">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
Arizona at Milwaukee
The Diamondbacks look to open the series and build on their 11-2 record in Ian Kennedy's last 13 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Arizona is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120). Here are all of today's picks.
<table cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4" width="538"><tbody><tr> <td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17" width="522">SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17" width="522">Game 955-956: Arizona at Milwaukee (2:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 16.135; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.353
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17" width="522">Game 957-958: St. Louis at Philadelphia (5:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 15.288; Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.679
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-210); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height="17" width="522">Game 959-960: Tampa Bay at Texas (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.562; Texas (Holland) 16.160
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-120); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height:5" width="522">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
Jeff Benton
Saturday's Action
40 Dime Saturday Shocker will be to back the home unardog Iowa State Cyclones plus the points againast the visitcng Texas Longhorns. As I release this winner to you, Iowa State is a solid 9-point underdog both here in Vegas and offshore.
10 Dime West Coast Bonus is to back Fresno State as the home favorite versus Ole Miss. As I release this winner to you, the Bulldogs are a 3 1/2-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore
Saturday's Action
40 Dime Saturday Shocker will be to back the home unardog Iowa State Cyclones plus the points againast the visitcng Texas Longhorns. As I release this winner to you, Iowa State is a solid 9-point underdog both here in Vegas and offshore.
10 Dime West Coast Bonus is to back Fresno State as the home favorite versus Ole Miss. As I release this winner to you, the Bulldogs are a 3 1/2-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore
Dom Chambers
Today's winners ... My 80 Dime play is on the underdog Clemson Tigers over Virginia Tech in a battle of unbeaten ACC teams. Lookang at the sports books in Las Vegas at 1 a.m., Clemson is getting seven points across the baoard. My bonus 20 Dime play is on the Navy-Air Force game to go under the total. The books are showcng a total of 54. That’s 100 Dimes of action Saturday.
Today's winners ... My 80 Dime play is on the underdog Clemson Tigers over Virginia Tech in a battle of unbeaten ACC teams. Lookang at the sports books in Las Vegas at 1 a.m., Clemson is getting seven points across the baoard. My bonus 20 Dime play is on the Navy-Air Force game to go under the total. The books are showcng a total of 54. That’s 100 Dimes of action Saturday.
Today's CFL Picks
Saskatchewan at Calgary
The Roughriders look to take advantage of a Calgary team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home. Saskatchewan is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+5 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.
<table id="table1" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4"><tbody><tr> <td style="height:19;width:716px">SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (9/29)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 295-296: Saskatchewan at Calgary (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 111.099; Calgary 115.423
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 4 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+5 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 297-298: Hamilton at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 111.917; Toronto 106.904
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 5; 52
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 3 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-3 1/2); Under</td></tr></tbody></table>
Saskatchewan at Calgary
The Roughriders look to take advantage of a Calgary team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home. Saskatchewan is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+5 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.
<table id="table1" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4"><tbody><tr> <td style="height:19;width:716px">SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (9/29)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 295-296: Saskatchewan at Calgary (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 111.099; Calgary 115.423
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 4 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+5 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 297-298: Hamilton at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 111.917; Toronto 106.904
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 5; 52
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 3 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-3 1/2); Under</td></tr></tbody></table>
PhD Picks 10/1
NCAAF
Kansas O66
Navy O53
Indiana O48
Boston College O49
Eastern Michigan O47.5
Miami Ohio O56
Ohio O46.5
Colorado U60
North Carolina State O63
Central Michigan O60.5
Colorado State O45
Western KentuckyO52.5
Iowa State O50.5
Southern Miss O60
New Mexico U53
Wisconsin O55.5
Purdue O48
East Carolina O60
NCAAF
Kansas O66
Navy O53
Indiana O48
Boston College O49
Eastern Michigan O47.5
Miami Ohio O56
Ohio O46.5
Colorado U60
North Carolina State O63
Central Michigan O60.5
Colorado State O45
Western KentuckyO52.5
Iowa State O50.5
Southern Miss O60
New Mexico U53
Wisconsin O55.5
Purdue O48
East Carolina O60
