THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(8) Oklahoma (2-1, 1-1 ATS) at (17) Miami, Fla. (2-1 SU and ATS)
Oklahoma faces its toughest test since a season-opening loss to BYU when it travels to Miami, Fla., to battle a wounded Hurricanes team coming off a humbling loss.
The Sooners fell 14-13 to BYU as a 22½-point favorite in a neutral-site game in Dallas on Sept. 5, losing Heisman Trophy-winning QB Sam Bradford to a shoulder injury in the process. With Bradford sidelined, Oklahoma went out in its next two games and annihilated Idaho State and Tulsa – both at home – by the combined score of 109-0, outgaining both teams by a total of 780 yards. The Sooners have been idle since the 45-0 rout of Tulsa as an 18-point chalk on Sept. 19.
Backup QB Landry Jones (60.5 percent completion rate, 673 yards, 9 TDs, 3 INTs) has done a solid job filling in for Bradford, and with the junior still not 100 percent, Jones will get the starting nod tonight. Coach Bob Stoops didn’t say if Bradford is well enough to serve as Landry’s backup.
Miami jumped all the way to No. 9 in the national poll after impressive victories over ranked opponents Florida State (38-34 on the road) and Georgia Tech (33-17 at home). Then the Hurricanes went to Blacksburg, Va., a week ago as a 2½-point road chalk and got smacked 31-7. Miami managed just 209 total yards, including 59 on the ground, and QB Jacory Harris proved mortal with a 9-for-25 passing day for just 150 yards, no TDs and one INT. The defense surrendered 370 yards.
These national powers squared off in Norman, Okla., two years ago – the first meeting since the 1988 Orange Bowl – and it was no contest, as the Sooners cruised 51-13 as a 10½-point home favorite. Bradford, then a freshman, passed for 205 yards and five TDs, and OU finished with a 411-139 advantage in total offense.
Oklahoma is now 13-3 ATS in regular-season lined games since the end of the 2007 campaign, and the SU winner is 18-1 ATS in its last 19 contests. Going back further, the Sooners are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 overall and sport additional pointspread upticks of 6-0 on the road (all as a favorite), 7-1 when laying points, 7-3 in non-conference play and 6-1 against teams with a winning record.
Miami easily got the money in its 16-point home win over Georgia Tech two weeks ago, but it is still just 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 in South Beach. On the bright side, the Hurricanes are on pointspread runs of 4-1 in non-league action, 5-1 as an underdog, 7-2 when catching between 3½ and 10 points and 6-1 versus the Big 12 (only non-cover coming at Oklahoma in 2007).
Oklahoma has stayed under the total in three straight games going back to last year’s BCS championship tilt with Florida, but otherwise the Sooners are on “over” rolls of 5-0 on the road, 12-3 as a favorite, 4-0 in October and 7-2 against winning teams. The over is also 5-2 in Miami’s last seven against the Big 12, but the under is 35-16-2 in its last 52 at home and 22-6 in its last 28 non-conference contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA
(7) USC (3-1, 1-3 ATS) at (25) California (3-1, 2-1 ATS)
Just days after star RB Stafon Johnson was seriously injured in a freak weightlifting accident, the Trojans will try to regroup and refocus when they invade Memorial Stadium in Berkeley for a key Pac-10 showdown against angry California.
After suffering a stunning 16-13 loss at Washington as a 20½-point road favorite, USC came home last Saturday and posted a lethargic 27-6 win over Washington State, coming up way short of covering the massing 45-point spread. The Trojans did have a 403-229 edge in total offense, and QB Matt Barkley returned from injury to go 13-for-22 for 247 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers.
Johnson, who rushed for 16 yards and a touchdown against Washington State and has 157 yards and five scores this season, will miss the remainder of his senior season after undergoing seven hours of surgery Monday to repair damage done to his neck after a weightlifting mishap.
Cal started the season with three straight blowout wins over Maryland (52-13), Eastern Washington (59-7) and Minnesota (35-21), rising all the way to No. 6 in the rankings. However, the Bears got a rude awakening last week at Oregon, scoring a field goal one minute into the game, then getting blanked 42-0 the rest of the way, falling as a 5½-point road chalk. With the loss, Jeff Tedford’s squad saw a six-game winning streak go by the wayside.
Cal was whipped in every way imaginable by the Ducks, getting outgained 236-77 on the ground and 288-130 in the air. Also, Bears RB and Heisman Trophy candidate Jahvid Best managed just 55 rushing yards on 16 carries and was held out of the end zone after scoring all five of his team’s TDs in a 35-21 victory the previous week at Minnesota.
USC earned a 17-3 victory over Cal last year to extend its winning streak in this rivalry to five in a row. However, the Bears got the cash as a 21½-point road ‘dog, ending the Trojans’ 3-0 ATS run. Cal is 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings, all as an underdog. However, the visitor is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 series battles.
The Trojans have failed to cash in three straight games overall, five straight games on the highway (all as a favorite) and five straight Pac-10 contests. They’re also 4-12 ATS in their last 16 in October and 6-17 ATS in their last 23 Pac-10 road efforts, but they’re on positive pointspread streaks of 14-3 when laying 10 points or less, 14-6 against winning teams and 8-3 after a non-cover.
Cal has covered in eight straight home games since last year and is on additional ATS runs of 7-3 overall, 5-2 in Pac-10 play, 9-2 on artificial turf, and 4-0 after a non-cover. However, the Bears are 2-6 ATS both in their last eight as an underdog and their last eight as a home pup.
The Bears have topped the total in six of eight overall and four of five at home, but the under is 8-1 in their last nine as an underdog. Also, USC carries nothing but “under” trends, including 20-7-1 overall (3-0 last three), 4-1 on the road, 22-4-1 in Pac-10 play (2-0 this year), 7-1 in October and 5-1 on artificial turf. Finally, the last five meetings in this series have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAL and UNDER
(4) LSU (4-0, 1-3 ATS) at (18) Georgia (3-1, 1-3 ATS)
The Bulldogs go after their fourth straight victory overall and their fourth straight win over LSU when they entertain the Tigers between The Hedges in the SEC’s marquee game of the week.
Georgia held off Arizona State 20-17 last Saturday night, but fell well short as a 12-point home favorite. A week after rolling up six TDs and 530 yards in an 11-point victory at Arkansas, the Bulldogs offense managed just 334 yards and two touchdowns against the Sun Devils, thanks in part to three turnovers. The defense, however, was stout, limiting ASU to just 204 yards (88 on the ground) after yielding a combined 78 points and 912 yards the previous two weeks.
LSU needed an incredible defensive goal-line stand last week to hold off Mississippi State 30-26, failing to cash as a 12-point road favorite. Up 30-24 – thanks to a defensive TD and a punt return for a score – the Tigers stoned Mississippi State on four tries from the 2-yard line with 90 seconds to play, then took an intentional safety for the final margin. Despite getting outgained 374-263 (including 151-30 on the ground), LSU won for the fifth straight time dating to last year’s 38-3 rout of Georgia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
The Bulldogs went to Baton Rouge last October and pounded LSU 52-38 in a pick-em contest. Georgia is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings, winning by the combined score of 131-68. Prior to last season, the host had won five straight meetings in this rivalry (4-1 ATS).
LSU has now failed to cover in 11 of its last 13 regular-season games and is also on ATS slides of 7-19-1 overall, 7-21-1 in SEC play, 1-5 in October, 1-4 as an underdog and 2-6 versus winning teams. Georgia hasn’t been much better in the ticket-cashing department, sporting pointspread trends of 2-7 overall, 1-7 at home, 1-8 as a favorite, 1-4 in SEC action and 3-9 in October.
The last four meetings in this rivalry have topped the posted total, and the over for LSU is on runs of 17-8 overall, 13-4 in conference play, 8-2 on the road and 5-1 in October, while the over is 5-1 in Georgia’s last six SEC contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and OVER
Wisconsin (4-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Minnesota (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)
The Badgers try to remain perfect on the season as they travel to TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis for the annual Border Battle against Big Ten rival Minnesota, with the winner walking away with the Paul Bunyan Axe.
Wisconsin has opened the season with four straight wins, averaging 36 points and 428 yards of offense per contest. Junior QB Scott Tolzien (884 yards passing with eight TDs and two INTs) is completing 66.7 percent of his throws and leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency. Tolzien had 243 yards and four TDs a week ago as the Badgers beat Michigan State 38-30 as a two-point home favorite.
Minnesota went to Northwestern last Saturday and scored a 35-24 win as a one-point ‘dog, scoring two TDs in the fourth quarter to rally from a 24-21 deficit. RB Duane Bennett rushed for 89 yards and got into the end zone three times. The Gophers’ defense, which got torched for 131 yards and five TDs by Cal RB Jahvid Best the previous week, held the Wildcats to 64 rushing yards on 29 carries and forced three turnovers.
Wisconsin has owned this rivalry lately, winning five straight (3-2 ATS) and eight of the last 10 (6-3-1 ATS). The Badgers edged Minnesota 35-32 last year, falling well short as 13½-point home favorites.
Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last five Big Ten contests, but otherwise it’s on pointspread slides of 3-9 on the road, 3-8 as a ‘dog, 1-6 as a road pup and 2-6 against teams with winning records. The Gophers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, but otherwise they are on ATS streaks of 8-3 in Big Ten contests, 4-1 in October and 9-3 following a SU win.
The over has been the play lately for the Badgers, currently on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 9-3 in conference games and 4-0 following a SU win. For Minnesota, the over is 5-2 in its last seven overall, but the under on streaks of 7-0 when with the Gophers as a favorite, 4-0 in October and 12-3 at home against teams with a winning road record. Finally, the over has cashed in nine straight meetings in this rivalry, including four straight in Minnesota.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Florida State (2-2, 1-2 ATS) at Boston College (3-1, 2-1 ATS)
Bobby Bowden takes his Seminoles to Alumni Stadium in Boston for an ACC matchup with Boston College.
Two weeks ago Florida State was talking about being back among the nation’s elite teams after a 54-28 road demolition of nationally ranked BYU, but a shocking 17-7 loss at home to South Florida a week ago knocked the ‘Noles out of the Top 25 again. Despite facing a freshman QB making his debut, the Seminoles gave up 368 yards to South Florida, while the offense produced just 288 yards and lost four fumbles in falling as a 14-point home favorite. Although Florida State is playing inconsistently as a team, QB Christian Ponder is having a fine season, as he leads the ACC in total offense (291.2 yards) and passing yards per game at 270.5 with four TDs and one INT.
The Eagles fell 25-7 at Clemson two weeks ago as a nine-point underdog, but came back last week and rallied from a 14-point, fourth-quarter deficit to edge Wake Forest 27-24 in overtime as a one-point home favorite. Boston College’s 25-year-old freshman QB David Shinskie threw for 228 yards, three TDs and an INT against Wake Forest in his first college start after spending six years playing minor league baseball.
This is the fifth straight year these teams have met since Boston College joined the ACC with the road team winning and covering in the previous four. Last year, the Eagles went to Tallahassee last year and got a 27-17 win as a seven-point pup, with Florida State winning by the same score in 2007 in Boston as a 6½-point underdog. The ‘dog has pulled the outright upset in each of the last three meetings.
Florida State is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight after a non-cover, but it is on pointspread slides of 8-17 in October and 5-11-1 as a road chalk. Boston College has cashed in four straight home games and is 12-5 ATS as an underdog since 2004 (3-1 ATS as a home pup), but it is 1-8 ATS in its last nine following a spread-cover.
The Seminoles are on “over” streaks of 10-3 in October, 7-3 on the road and 11-5 against teams with winning records. Boston College has stayed below the posted total in six of eight as a ‘dog and five of seven as a home pup, but the Eagles are on “over” runs of 7-2 in Big East play, 5-2 at home and 11-4 on turf. Meanwhile, the “over” is 3-1 in the four series meetings, with the two contests in Boston topping the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE
(3) Alabama (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Kentucky (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
The Crimson Tide head to Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Ky., hoping to remain perfect on the season when they battle SEC foe Kentucky.
Alabama crushed Arkansas 35-7 at home last week as a 17½-point home favorite, just a week after blasting North Texas 53-7 as 37-point favorites. Going back to the start of last season, the Crimson Tide have won 16 consecutive regular-season games, with all but three being double-digit blowouts. In fact, including losses to Florida in the SEC title game and Utah in the Sugar Bowl, 16 of the Tide’s last 18 games have been decided by double digits.
Alabama ranks second in the country in scoring defense, yielding 202.5 total yards per game allowed, including just 47.3 rushing yards per contest. However, the defense will be hampered today as star linebacker Dont’a Hightower (team-high 23 tackles this season) tore a knee ligament against Arkansas and is out for the remainder of the season.
Kentucky’s offense was horrific last Saturday, managing just 179 yards in a 41-7 home loss to Florida, coming up way short as a 20½-point home pup. The Wildcats trailed 31-0 after the first quarter, and QB Mike Hartline was just 13-for-28 for 95 yards and two INTs.
Alabama has won three straight (1-2 ATS) and six of seven (3-4 ATS) over Kentucky dating to 1988. Last year the Crimson Tide edged the ‘Cats 17-14 but fell way short as a 15½-point home favorite, as the visitor improved to 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.
‘Bama is on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 8-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 8-2 as a favorite, 6-1 as a road chalk, 5-1 in SEC games and 7-2 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have cashed in five straight home games against teams with winning road records, but otherwise they are on ATS slides of 3-9-1 at home, 2-6 in SEC play and 1-5 in October.
The Crimson Tide have topped the total in four of five overall, but otherwise they are on “under” runs of 12-4 in October, 4-0 in SEC play and 4-1 after an ATS win. It’s been all “overs” for the Wildcats lately, including 4-1 at home, 5-1 as a home ‘dog and 5-1 when facing opponents with a winning record. These two teams flew over the total last time they were in Kentucky, but the under has been the play in two of the last three overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA and OVER
(25) Georgia Tech (3-1, 1-2 ATS) at Mississippi State (2-2, 2-1 ATS)
The Yellow Jackets take a break from ACC action when they travel to Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss., for a non-conference battle with Mississippi State.
Georgia Tech rebounded from an ugly 33-17 loss at Miami, Fla., as a four-point underdog with last Saturday’s 24-7 home win over No. 22 North Carolina as a three-point favorite, jumping back into the national rankings with the victory while knocking the Tar Heels out of the Top 25. RB Jonathan Dwyer ran for a season-high 158 yards as the ‘Jackets outrushed the Tar Heels 317-17. Georgia Tech is now averaging 262 rushing yards per contest.
The Bulldogs got 106 rushing yards and two TDs from RB Anthony Dixon in last week’s 30-26 home loss to seventh-ranked LSU, but they did get the cash as a 12-point underdog. QB Tyson Lee threw for 172 yards and had a chance to be the hero, but was stopped on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line with 1:08 left in the game. Mississippi State, which had four cracks from inside the 5-yard line on the game-deciding possession against LSU, has alternated wins and losses this season, but is 3-6 ATS in its last nine lined contests.
These teams met last year in Atlanta with Georgia Tech getting the easy 38-7 win as a seven-point home favorite.
The Yellow Jackets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight on the road and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five October outings, but they’re also on pointspread slides of 1-5 after a SU win and 4-11 as a road favorite of 3½ to 10 points. Mississippi State is on positive ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 6-0 as a home pup and 5-0 at home against teams with winning road marks, however it is just 4-9-1 in October over the past three-plus seasons.
Georgia Tech is on “under” runs of 5-1 on the road, 20-5-2 in October and 8-2 after a SU win, but the ‘Jackets have gone “over” the total in four of six non-conference games. Meanwhile, it’s been all “unders” for the Bulldogs lately, including 4-1 in October, 8-3 after an ATS win and 4-1 at home against teams with winning road records. Last year’s clash between these schools in Atlanta cleared the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH
(15) Penn State (3-1, 0-4 ATS) at Illinois (1-2, 0-2 ATS)
Penn State will try to rebound from a stunning home loss to Iowa when it takes to the road for the first time in 2009 for a Big Ten clash with struggling Illinois.
The Nittany Lions went off as a 9½-point favorite last Saturday night against the Hawkeyes and jumped out to a 7-0 lead less than two minutes into the game and led 10-0 after one quarter, but Iowa scored the final 21 points to prevail 21-10. Penn State’s defense played well (298 yards allowed, two forced turnovers), but QB Daryll Clark had a miserable day after tossing the early TD strike, finishing 12-for-32 for 198 yards and three interceptions. Clark was also sacked in the end zone for a safety, and Iowa blocked a punt that it returned for a score.
Illinois had its own offensive issues at Ohio State last week, getting blanked 30-0 as a 14-point road underdog. QB Juice Williams (13-for-25, 77 yards, 2 TDs; 18 rushing yards on 15 carries) was a disaster, and the Illini got outrushed 236-82. In its two losses – to Ohio State and Missouri – Illinois got outscored 67-9 and outgained by 260 total yards.
Penn State beat the Illini 38-24 at home last year, improving to 13-3 SU in the last 16 meetings. However, Illinois barely cashed as a 15-point road underdog, its third straight spread-cover in this series (all as an underdog). The ‘dog is 5-1 in the last six meetings, but the Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Champaign.
The Nittany Lions have failed to get the money in five straight games overall and seven of eight, and they’re 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points. Joe Paterno’s bunch is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six as a road chalk, and it went 3-0-1 ATS in October last year. Meanwhile, Illinois’ pointspread slides are numerous, including 0-5 overall, 2-4 at home, 1-4 in conference, 0-4 against winning teams, 0-7 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points and 17-34 after an outright defeat.
For Penn State, the under is on runs of 4-0 this season and 24-9-2 after a non-cover, while the under is 3-0 in the Illini’s last three overall, 3-1-1 in its last five conference tilts and 5-2 in its last seven October contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(22) Michigan (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Michigan State (1-3, 1-2 ATS)
Two rivals going in opposite directions hook up in East Lansing, Mich., where the unbeaten Wolverines take on Michigan State in the second Big Ten game for both squads.
Michigan exceeded its win total from last year with last week’s come-from-behind 36-33 victory over Indiana, never threatening to cover as an 18½-point home favorite. Freshman QB Tate Forcier connected with Martavious Odoms on a 26-yard TD pass with 2½ minutes to play as the Wolverines, who finished 3-9 in coach Rich Rodriguez’s debut season in 2008, improved to 4-0 (all at home). Michigan got outgained 467-372 in the win.
Since opening with a 44-3 home rout of Division I-AA Montana State, the Spartans have suffered three consecutive close losses to Central Michigan, Notre Dame and Wisconsin by a combined 13 points. Last week, Michigan State went to Madison, Wis., and fell behind 38-17 in the fourth quarter before getting two meaningless touchdowns in the final 2:07 to lose 38-30 as a two-point road underdog. It put up 486 total yards in the defeat, but gave up 436.
The Spartans traveled to Ann Arbor last year and pounded Michigan 35-21 as a 3½-point road favorite, snapping a six-game losing streak (1-5 ATS) in this rivalry. The visitor is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six series meetings, with four of the games decided by eight points or less (including two overtime contests). Finally, the favorite has gotten the money each of the last three years, and the SU winner is 13-3 ATS the last 16 years.
The Wolverines ha scored 31, 38, 45 and 36 points in their four victories after cracking the 30-point barrier just once in 12 games a year ago. They’re averaging 37.5 points and 422 total yards per contest (240.2 rushing ypg), while Michigan State is averaging 32.8 points and 438.5 total yards (320.8 passing ypg).
Despite starting the season 3-1 ATS, Michigan is still just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 overall and is in further pointspread nosedives of 1-4 on the road, 1-7 in Big Ten play, 0-4 in October, 2-5 after a SU win and 3-7 against teams with a losing record. However, the Wolverines have covered in eight of their last 11 as a road pup.
Michigan State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight after a non-cover, but otherwise is in ATS slumps of 1-4 overall, 1-4 at home, 0-4 versus winning teams, 11-23 as a home favorite, 2-6 when laying three points or less, 7-16 after an outright loss and 5-11 in October.
The over for Michigan is on runs of 4-1 overall, 7-1 on the road, 7-2 in Big Ten play, 20-8 as an underdog, and the Spartans are on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 10-3 in conference and 20-8 in October. Finally, the over is 4-1 in the last five series meetings and 3-1-1 in the past five clashes in East Lansing.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
UCLA (3-0 SU and ATS) at Stanford (3-1 SU and ATS)
Off to its best start in four years, UCLA heads up north for its Pac-10 opener against surprising Stanford, which is looking to end a five-game losing streak to the Bruins.
UCLA took last week off after dismantling Kansas State 23-9, covering as an 11-point home favorite to move to 4-0 ATS since last year’s spread-cover against USC in the season finale. The Bruins’ defense has been the catalyst, allowing a total of 38 points in three contests while giving up just 251 total yards per game and 74.3 rushing ypg (2.3 yards per carry). Rick Nueheisel’s team is 3-0 for the first time since 2005.
Stanford racked up 424 total yards, including 321 on the ground, as it picked apart Washington 34-14 last Saturday, dumping the Huskies as a 9½-point favorite a week after Washington upset USC. The Cardinal’s three wins have come by 26, 25 and 20 points, with the lone blemish being a last-second, 24-17 setback at Wake Forest on Sept. 12. Stanford is averaging 33 points and 419.5 yards per game, doing the bulk of the damage on the ground (233.8 rushing ypg, 5.9 ypc).
The Bruins got a 7-yard TD pass with 10 seconds left to pull out a 23-20 victory over Stanford last year as a 2½-point home underdog. It was UCLA’s fifth straight win and third consecutive spread-cover in this rivalry, including a 45-17 rout as a 16½-point road chalk in its last trip to Palo Alto in 2007. Prior to that blowout loss, the Cardinal had been on a 4-0 ATS run at home against the Bruins.
Also in this rivalry, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the ‘dog has gotten the money in seven of the last 10.
UCLA is on ATS runs of 13-5-1 overall, 16-6 in Pac-10 action, 35-17 when catching points, 8-3 as a visiting underdog, 5-2 as a road pup in conference play and 28-11 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Stanford has now cashed in eight consecutive home games and is on additional pointspread surges of 6-2 overall, 5-1 in conference, 4-0 as a favorite (all at home) and 4-1 versus winning teams.
The Bruins are on a bevy of “under” streaks, including 6-1 overall, 3-1-1 on the road, 19-7-1 in conference, 5-1-1 in October and 4-0 as an underdog. The under is also 41-18-1 in Stanford’s last 60 Pac-10 games, 8-2 in its last 10 as a home favorite and 22-5 in its last 27 in October. Finally, six of the last seven UCLA-Stanford clashes have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Auburn (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Tennessee (2-2 SU and ATS)
After four straight double-digit home wins to start the campaign, Auburn hits the highway for the first time when it matches up against Tennessee at Neyland Stadium.
The Tigers throttled Louisiana Tech (37-13), Mississippi State (49-24), West Virginia (41-30) and Ball State (54-30), not only averaging 45.2 points per game but also 526.2 yards per outing with a near perfect balance of 265 passing ypg and 261.2 rushing ypg. After cashing in its first three contests, Auburn gave up 13 points to Ball State in garbage time last week to come up short as a 32-point home chalk.
Tennessee bounced back from a 10-point loss at top-ranked Florida with last Saturday’s 34-23 home win over Ohio, falling way short, though, as a 23½-point chalk. The Vols have scored 97 points in their two victories but just 28 in their two defeats, but the defense has been rock solid all year, surrendering just 18 points and 233 yards per outing (87 rushing ypg). Going back to last season, Tennessee held seven straight opponents to 23 points or less (15 ppg).
Auburn arrives in Knoxville having won four in a row against Tennessee (2-2 ATS), though three of contests were in Alabama. Last year, the Tigers held on for a 14-12 win, falling short as a 6½-point home chalk, as the Vols improved to 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Nine of the last 12 clashes have been decided by 10 points or fewer, including two ties, and the underdog has cashed in three straight since 2004.
Although they’ve covered in three of four this year, the Tigers are still in ATS ruts of 4-10 overall, 0-5 on the road, 1-4 as an underdog (all on the road), 2-7 in SEC play, 0-4 in October and 0-7 after a non-cover. Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last eight conference games, but 3-7 ATS in its last 10 at home and 9-20 ATS in its last 29 as a home chalk.
Auburn has topped the total in all four games this season, but the under is 5-1 in its last six on the road, 11-4 in its last 15 as a road pup and 13-5 in its last 18 SEC games. Also, the Vols are on “under” runs of 19-6-1 overall, 34-16-3 at home, 22-8-2 in conference action, 9-3-1 as a chalk, 12-3-1 against winning teams, 5-0 in October, 5-0-1 after a SU win and 8-0 after an ATS setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(8) Oklahoma (2-1, 1-1 ATS) at (17) Miami, Fla. (2-1 SU and ATS)
Oklahoma faces its toughest test since a season-opening loss to BYU when it travels to Miami, Fla., to battle a wounded Hurricanes team coming off a humbling loss.
The Sooners fell 14-13 to BYU as a 22½-point favorite in a neutral-site game in Dallas on Sept. 5, losing Heisman Trophy-winning QB Sam Bradford to a shoulder injury in the process. With Bradford sidelined, Oklahoma went out in its next two games and annihilated Idaho State and Tulsa – both at home – by the combined score of 109-0, outgaining both teams by a total of 780 yards. The Sooners have been idle since the 45-0 rout of Tulsa as an 18-point chalk on Sept. 19.
Backup QB Landry Jones (60.5 percent completion rate, 673 yards, 9 TDs, 3 INTs) has done a solid job filling in for Bradford, and with the junior still not 100 percent, Jones will get the starting nod tonight. Coach Bob Stoops didn’t say if Bradford is well enough to serve as Landry’s backup.
Miami jumped all the way to No. 9 in the national poll after impressive victories over ranked opponents Florida State (38-34 on the road) and Georgia Tech (33-17 at home). Then the Hurricanes went to Blacksburg, Va., a week ago as a 2½-point road chalk and got smacked 31-7. Miami managed just 209 total yards, including 59 on the ground, and QB Jacory Harris proved mortal with a 9-for-25 passing day for just 150 yards, no TDs and one INT. The defense surrendered 370 yards.
These national powers squared off in Norman, Okla., two years ago – the first meeting since the 1988 Orange Bowl – and it was no contest, as the Sooners cruised 51-13 as a 10½-point home favorite. Bradford, then a freshman, passed for 205 yards and five TDs, and OU finished with a 411-139 advantage in total offense.
Oklahoma is now 13-3 ATS in regular-season lined games since the end of the 2007 campaign, and the SU winner is 18-1 ATS in its last 19 contests. Going back further, the Sooners are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 overall and sport additional pointspread upticks of 6-0 on the road (all as a favorite), 7-1 when laying points, 7-3 in non-conference play and 6-1 against teams with a winning record.
Miami easily got the money in its 16-point home win over Georgia Tech two weeks ago, but it is still just 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 in South Beach. On the bright side, the Hurricanes are on pointspread runs of 4-1 in non-league action, 5-1 as an underdog, 7-2 when catching between 3½ and 10 points and 6-1 versus the Big 12 (only non-cover coming at Oklahoma in 2007).
Oklahoma has stayed under the total in three straight games going back to last year’s BCS championship tilt with Florida, but otherwise the Sooners are on “over” rolls of 5-0 on the road, 12-3 as a favorite, 4-0 in October and 7-2 against winning teams. The over is also 5-2 in Miami’s last seven against the Big 12, but the under is 35-16-2 in its last 52 at home and 22-6 in its last 28 non-conference contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA
(7) USC (3-1, 1-3 ATS) at (25) California (3-1, 2-1 ATS)
Just days after star RB Stafon Johnson was seriously injured in a freak weightlifting accident, the Trojans will try to regroup and refocus when they invade Memorial Stadium in Berkeley for a key Pac-10 showdown against angry California.
After suffering a stunning 16-13 loss at Washington as a 20½-point road favorite, USC came home last Saturday and posted a lethargic 27-6 win over Washington State, coming up way short of covering the massing 45-point spread. The Trojans did have a 403-229 edge in total offense, and QB Matt Barkley returned from injury to go 13-for-22 for 247 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers.
Johnson, who rushed for 16 yards and a touchdown against Washington State and has 157 yards and five scores this season, will miss the remainder of his senior season after undergoing seven hours of surgery Monday to repair damage done to his neck after a weightlifting mishap.
Cal started the season with three straight blowout wins over Maryland (52-13), Eastern Washington (59-7) and Minnesota (35-21), rising all the way to No. 6 in the rankings. However, the Bears got a rude awakening last week at Oregon, scoring a field goal one minute into the game, then getting blanked 42-0 the rest of the way, falling as a 5½-point road chalk. With the loss, Jeff Tedford’s squad saw a six-game winning streak go by the wayside.
Cal was whipped in every way imaginable by the Ducks, getting outgained 236-77 on the ground and 288-130 in the air. Also, Bears RB and Heisman Trophy candidate Jahvid Best managed just 55 rushing yards on 16 carries and was held out of the end zone after scoring all five of his team’s TDs in a 35-21 victory the previous week at Minnesota.
USC earned a 17-3 victory over Cal last year to extend its winning streak in this rivalry to five in a row. However, the Bears got the cash as a 21½-point road ‘dog, ending the Trojans’ 3-0 ATS run. Cal is 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings, all as an underdog. However, the visitor is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 series battles.
The Trojans have failed to cash in three straight games overall, five straight games on the highway (all as a favorite) and five straight Pac-10 contests. They’re also 4-12 ATS in their last 16 in October and 6-17 ATS in their last 23 Pac-10 road efforts, but they’re on positive pointspread streaks of 14-3 when laying 10 points or less, 14-6 against winning teams and 8-3 after a non-cover.
Cal has covered in eight straight home games since last year and is on additional ATS runs of 7-3 overall, 5-2 in Pac-10 play, 9-2 on artificial turf, and 4-0 after a non-cover. However, the Bears are 2-6 ATS both in their last eight as an underdog and their last eight as a home pup.
The Bears have topped the total in six of eight overall and four of five at home, but the under is 8-1 in their last nine as an underdog. Also, USC carries nothing but “under” trends, including 20-7-1 overall (3-0 last three), 4-1 on the road, 22-4-1 in Pac-10 play (2-0 this year), 7-1 in October and 5-1 on artificial turf. Finally, the last five meetings in this series have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAL and UNDER
(4) LSU (4-0, 1-3 ATS) at (18) Georgia (3-1, 1-3 ATS)
The Bulldogs go after their fourth straight victory overall and their fourth straight win over LSU when they entertain the Tigers between The Hedges in the SEC’s marquee game of the week.
Georgia held off Arizona State 20-17 last Saturday night, but fell well short as a 12-point home favorite. A week after rolling up six TDs and 530 yards in an 11-point victory at Arkansas, the Bulldogs offense managed just 334 yards and two touchdowns against the Sun Devils, thanks in part to three turnovers. The defense, however, was stout, limiting ASU to just 204 yards (88 on the ground) after yielding a combined 78 points and 912 yards the previous two weeks.
LSU needed an incredible defensive goal-line stand last week to hold off Mississippi State 30-26, failing to cash as a 12-point road favorite. Up 30-24 – thanks to a defensive TD and a punt return for a score – the Tigers stoned Mississippi State on four tries from the 2-yard line with 90 seconds to play, then took an intentional safety for the final margin. Despite getting outgained 374-263 (including 151-30 on the ground), LSU won for the fifth straight time dating to last year’s 38-3 rout of Georgia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
The Bulldogs went to Baton Rouge last October and pounded LSU 52-38 in a pick-em contest. Georgia is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings, winning by the combined score of 131-68. Prior to last season, the host had won five straight meetings in this rivalry (4-1 ATS).
LSU has now failed to cover in 11 of its last 13 regular-season games and is also on ATS slides of 7-19-1 overall, 7-21-1 in SEC play, 1-5 in October, 1-4 as an underdog and 2-6 versus winning teams. Georgia hasn’t been much better in the ticket-cashing department, sporting pointspread trends of 2-7 overall, 1-7 at home, 1-8 as a favorite, 1-4 in SEC action and 3-9 in October.
The last four meetings in this rivalry have topped the posted total, and the over for LSU is on runs of 17-8 overall, 13-4 in conference play, 8-2 on the road and 5-1 in October, while the over is 5-1 in Georgia’s last six SEC contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and OVER
Wisconsin (4-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Minnesota (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)
The Badgers try to remain perfect on the season as they travel to TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis for the annual Border Battle against Big Ten rival Minnesota, with the winner walking away with the Paul Bunyan Axe.
Wisconsin has opened the season with four straight wins, averaging 36 points and 428 yards of offense per contest. Junior QB Scott Tolzien (884 yards passing with eight TDs and two INTs) is completing 66.7 percent of his throws and leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency. Tolzien had 243 yards and four TDs a week ago as the Badgers beat Michigan State 38-30 as a two-point home favorite.
Minnesota went to Northwestern last Saturday and scored a 35-24 win as a one-point ‘dog, scoring two TDs in the fourth quarter to rally from a 24-21 deficit. RB Duane Bennett rushed for 89 yards and got into the end zone three times. The Gophers’ defense, which got torched for 131 yards and five TDs by Cal RB Jahvid Best the previous week, held the Wildcats to 64 rushing yards on 29 carries and forced three turnovers.
Wisconsin has owned this rivalry lately, winning five straight (3-2 ATS) and eight of the last 10 (6-3-1 ATS). The Badgers edged Minnesota 35-32 last year, falling well short as 13½-point home favorites.
Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last five Big Ten contests, but otherwise it’s on pointspread slides of 3-9 on the road, 3-8 as a ‘dog, 1-6 as a road pup and 2-6 against teams with winning records. The Gophers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, but otherwise they are on ATS streaks of 8-3 in Big Ten contests, 4-1 in October and 9-3 following a SU win.
The over has been the play lately for the Badgers, currently on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 9-3 in conference games and 4-0 following a SU win. For Minnesota, the over is 5-2 in its last seven overall, but the under on streaks of 7-0 when with the Gophers as a favorite, 4-0 in October and 12-3 at home against teams with a winning road record. Finally, the over has cashed in nine straight meetings in this rivalry, including four straight in Minnesota.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Florida State (2-2, 1-2 ATS) at Boston College (3-1, 2-1 ATS)
Bobby Bowden takes his Seminoles to Alumni Stadium in Boston for an ACC matchup with Boston College.
Two weeks ago Florida State was talking about being back among the nation’s elite teams after a 54-28 road demolition of nationally ranked BYU, but a shocking 17-7 loss at home to South Florida a week ago knocked the ‘Noles out of the Top 25 again. Despite facing a freshman QB making his debut, the Seminoles gave up 368 yards to South Florida, while the offense produced just 288 yards and lost four fumbles in falling as a 14-point home favorite. Although Florida State is playing inconsistently as a team, QB Christian Ponder is having a fine season, as he leads the ACC in total offense (291.2 yards) and passing yards per game at 270.5 with four TDs and one INT.
The Eagles fell 25-7 at Clemson two weeks ago as a nine-point underdog, but came back last week and rallied from a 14-point, fourth-quarter deficit to edge Wake Forest 27-24 in overtime as a one-point home favorite. Boston College’s 25-year-old freshman QB David Shinskie threw for 228 yards, three TDs and an INT against Wake Forest in his first college start after spending six years playing minor league baseball.
This is the fifth straight year these teams have met since Boston College joined the ACC with the road team winning and covering in the previous four. Last year, the Eagles went to Tallahassee last year and got a 27-17 win as a seven-point pup, with Florida State winning by the same score in 2007 in Boston as a 6½-point underdog. The ‘dog has pulled the outright upset in each of the last three meetings.
Florida State is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight after a non-cover, but it is on pointspread slides of 8-17 in October and 5-11-1 as a road chalk. Boston College has cashed in four straight home games and is 12-5 ATS as an underdog since 2004 (3-1 ATS as a home pup), but it is 1-8 ATS in its last nine following a spread-cover.
The Seminoles are on “over” streaks of 10-3 in October, 7-3 on the road and 11-5 against teams with winning records. Boston College has stayed below the posted total in six of eight as a ‘dog and five of seven as a home pup, but the Eagles are on “over” runs of 7-2 in Big East play, 5-2 at home and 11-4 on turf. Meanwhile, the “over” is 3-1 in the four series meetings, with the two contests in Boston topping the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE
(3) Alabama (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Kentucky (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
The Crimson Tide head to Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Ky., hoping to remain perfect on the season when they battle SEC foe Kentucky.
Alabama crushed Arkansas 35-7 at home last week as a 17½-point home favorite, just a week after blasting North Texas 53-7 as 37-point favorites. Going back to the start of last season, the Crimson Tide have won 16 consecutive regular-season games, with all but three being double-digit blowouts. In fact, including losses to Florida in the SEC title game and Utah in the Sugar Bowl, 16 of the Tide’s last 18 games have been decided by double digits.
Alabama ranks second in the country in scoring defense, yielding 202.5 total yards per game allowed, including just 47.3 rushing yards per contest. However, the defense will be hampered today as star linebacker Dont’a Hightower (team-high 23 tackles this season) tore a knee ligament against Arkansas and is out for the remainder of the season.
Kentucky’s offense was horrific last Saturday, managing just 179 yards in a 41-7 home loss to Florida, coming up way short as a 20½-point home pup. The Wildcats trailed 31-0 after the first quarter, and QB Mike Hartline was just 13-for-28 for 95 yards and two INTs.
Alabama has won three straight (1-2 ATS) and six of seven (3-4 ATS) over Kentucky dating to 1988. Last year the Crimson Tide edged the ‘Cats 17-14 but fell way short as a 15½-point home favorite, as the visitor improved to 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.
‘Bama is on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 8-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 8-2 as a favorite, 6-1 as a road chalk, 5-1 in SEC games and 7-2 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have cashed in five straight home games against teams with winning road records, but otherwise they are on ATS slides of 3-9-1 at home, 2-6 in SEC play and 1-5 in October.
The Crimson Tide have topped the total in four of five overall, but otherwise they are on “under” runs of 12-4 in October, 4-0 in SEC play and 4-1 after an ATS win. It’s been all “overs” for the Wildcats lately, including 4-1 at home, 5-1 as a home ‘dog and 5-1 when facing opponents with a winning record. These two teams flew over the total last time they were in Kentucky, but the under has been the play in two of the last three overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA and OVER
(25) Georgia Tech (3-1, 1-2 ATS) at Mississippi State (2-2, 2-1 ATS)
The Yellow Jackets take a break from ACC action when they travel to Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss., for a non-conference battle with Mississippi State.
Georgia Tech rebounded from an ugly 33-17 loss at Miami, Fla., as a four-point underdog with last Saturday’s 24-7 home win over No. 22 North Carolina as a three-point favorite, jumping back into the national rankings with the victory while knocking the Tar Heels out of the Top 25. RB Jonathan Dwyer ran for a season-high 158 yards as the ‘Jackets outrushed the Tar Heels 317-17. Georgia Tech is now averaging 262 rushing yards per contest.
The Bulldogs got 106 rushing yards and two TDs from RB Anthony Dixon in last week’s 30-26 home loss to seventh-ranked LSU, but they did get the cash as a 12-point underdog. QB Tyson Lee threw for 172 yards and had a chance to be the hero, but was stopped on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line with 1:08 left in the game. Mississippi State, which had four cracks from inside the 5-yard line on the game-deciding possession against LSU, has alternated wins and losses this season, but is 3-6 ATS in its last nine lined contests.
These teams met last year in Atlanta with Georgia Tech getting the easy 38-7 win as a seven-point home favorite.
The Yellow Jackets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight on the road and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five October outings, but they’re also on pointspread slides of 1-5 after a SU win and 4-11 as a road favorite of 3½ to 10 points. Mississippi State is on positive ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 6-0 as a home pup and 5-0 at home against teams with winning road marks, however it is just 4-9-1 in October over the past three-plus seasons.
Georgia Tech is on “under” runs of 5-1 on the road, 20-5-2 in October and 8-2 after a SU win, but the ‘Jackets have gone “over” the total in four of six non-conference games. Meanwhile, it’s been all “unders” for the Bulldogs lately, including 4-1 in October, 8-3 after an ATS win and 4-1 at home against teams with winning road records. Last year’s clash between these schools in Atlanta cleared the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH
(15) Penn State (3-1, 0-4 ATS) at Illinois (1-2, 0-2 ATS)
Penn State will try to rebound from a stunning home loss to Iowa when it takes to the road for the first time in 2009 for a Big Ten clash with struggling Illinois.
The Nittany Lions went off as a 9½-point favorite last Saturday night against the Hawkeyes and jumped out to a 7-0 lead less than two minutes into the game and led 10-0 after one quarter, but Iowa scored the final 21 points to prevail 21-10. Penn State’s defense played well (298 yards allowed, two forced turnovers), but QB Daryll Clark had a miserable day after tossing the early TD strike, finishing 12-for-32 for 198 yards and three interceptions. Clark was also sacked in the end zone for a safety, and Iowa blocked a punt that it returned for a score.
Illinois had its own offensive issues at Ohio State last week, getting blanked 30-0 as a 14-point road underdog. QB Juice Williams (13-for-25, 77 yards, 2 TDs; 18 rushing yards on 15 carries) was a disaster, and the Illini got outrushed 236-82. In its two losses – to Ohio State and Missouri – Illinois got outscored 67-9 and outgained by 260 total yards.
Penn State beat the Illini 38-24 at home last year, improving to 13-3 SU in the last 16 meetings. However, Illinois barely cashed as a 15-point road underdog, its third straight spread-cover in this series (all as an underdog). The ‘dog is 5-1 in the last six meetings, but the Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Champaign.
The Nittany Lions have failed to get the money in five straight games overall and seven of eight, and they’re 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points. Joe Paterno’s bunch is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six as a road chalk, and it went 3-0-1 ATS in October last year. Meanwhile, Illinois’ pointspread slides are numerous, including 0-5 overall, 2-4 at home, 1-4 in conference, 0-4 against winning teams, 0-7 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points and 17-34 after an outright defeat.
For Penn State, the under is on runs of 4-0 this season and 24-9-2 after a non-cover, while the under is 3-0 in the Illini’s last three overall, 3-1-1 in its last five conference tilts and 5-2 in its last seven October contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(22) Michigan (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Michigan State (1-3, 1-2 ATS)
Two rivals going in opposite directions hook up in East Lansing, Mich., where the unbeaten Wolverines take on Michigan State in the second Big Ten game for both squads.
Michigan exceeded its win total from last year with last week’s come-from-behind 36-33 victory over Indiana, never threatening to cover as an 18½-point home favorite. Freshman QB Tate Forcier connected with Martavious Odoms on a 26-yard TD pass with 2½ minutes to play as the Wolverines, who finished 3-9 in coach Rich Rodriguez’s debut season in 2008, improved to 4-0 (all at home). Michigan got outgained 467-372 in the win.
Since opening with a 44-3 home rout of Division I-AA Montana State, the Spartans have suffered three consecutive close losses to Central Michigan, Notre Dame and Wisconsin by a combined 13 points. Last week, Michigan State went to Madison, Wis., and fell behind 38-17 in the fourth quarter before getting two meaningless touchdowns in the final 2:07 to lose 38-30 as a two-point road underdog. It put up 486 total yards in the defeat, but gave up 436.
The Spartans traveled to Ann Arbor last year and pounded Michigan 35-21 as a 3½-point road favorite, snapping a six-game losing streak (1-5 ATS) in this rivalry. The visitor is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six series meetings, with four of the games decided by eight points or less (including two overtime contests). Finally, the favorite has gotten the money each of the last three years, and the SU winner is 13-3 ATS the last 16 years.
The Wolverines ha scored 31, 38, 45 and 36 points in their four victories after cracking the 30-point barrier just once in 12 games a year ago. They’re averaging 37.5 points and 422 total yards per contest (240.2 rushing ypg), while Michigan State is averaging 32.8 points and 438.5 total yards (320.8 passing ypg).
Despite starting the season 3-1 ATS, Michigan is still just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 overall and is in further pointspread nosedives of 1-4 on the road, 1-7 in Big Ten play, 0-4 in October, 2-5 after a SU win and 3-7 against teams with a losing record. However, the Wolverines have covered in eight of their last 11 as a road pup.
Michigan State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight after a non-cover, but otherwise is in ATS slumps of 1-4 overall, 1-4 at home, 0-4 versus winning teams, 11-23 as a home favorite, 2-6 when laying three points or less, 7-16 after an outright loss and 5-11 in October.
The over for Michigan is on runs of 4-1 overall, 7-1 on the road, 7-2 in Big Ten play, 20-8 as an underdog, and the Spartans are on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 10-3 in conference and 20-8 in October. Finally, the over is 4-1 in the last five series meetings and 3-1-1 in the past five clashes in East Lansing.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
UCLA (3-0 SU and ATS) at Stanford (3-1 SU and ATS)
Off to its best start in four years, UCLA heads up north for its Pac-10 opener against surprising Stanford, which is looking to end a five-game losing streak to the Bruins.
UCLA took last week off after dismantling Kansas State 23-9, covering as an 11-point home favorite to move to 4-0 ATS since last year’s spread-cover against USC in the season finale. The Bruins’ defense has been the catalyst, allowing a total of 38 points in three contests while giving up just 251 total yards per game and 74.3 rushing ypg (2.3 yards per carry). Rick Nueheisel’s team is 3-0 for the first time since 2005.
Stanford racked up 424 total yards, including 321 on the ground, as it picked apart Washington 34-14 last Saturday, dumping the Huskies as a 9½-point favorite a week after Washington upset USC. The Cardinal’s three wins have come by 26, 25 and 20 points, with the lone blemish being a last-second, 24-17 setback at Wake Forest on Sept. 12. Stanford is averaging 33 points and 419.5 yards per game, doing the bulk of the damage on the ground (233.8 rushing ypg, 5.9 ypc).
The Bruins got a 7-yard TD pass with 10 seconds left to pull out a 23-20 victory over Stanford last year as a 2½-point home underdog. It was UCLA’s fifth straight win and third consecutive spread-cover in this rivalry, including a 45-17 rout as a 16½-point road chalk in its last trip to Palo Alto in 2007. Prior to that blowout loss, the Cardinal had been on a 4-0 ATS run at home against the Bruins.
Also in this rivalry, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the ‘dog has gotten the money in seven of the last 10.
UCLA is on ATS runs of 13-5-1 overall, 16-6 in Pac-10 action, 35-17 when catching points, 8-3 as a visiting underdog, 5-2 as a road pup in conference play and 28-11 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Stanford has now cashed in eight consecutive home games and is on additional pointspread surges of 6-2 overall, 5-1 in conference, 4-0 as a favorite (all at home) and 4-1 versus winning teams.
The Bruins are on a bevy of “under” streaks, including 6-1 overall, 3-1-1 on the road, 19-7-1 in conference, 5-1-1 in October and 4-0 as an underdog. The under is also 41-18-1 in Stanford’s last 60 Pac-10 games, 8-2 in its last 10 as a home favorite and 22-5 in its last 27 in October. Finally, six of the last seven UCLA-Stanford clashes have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Auburn (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Tennessee (2-2 SU and ATS)
After four straight double-digit home wins to start the campaign, Auburn hits the highway for the first time when it matches up against Tennessee at Neyland Stadium.
The Tigers throttled Louisiana Tech (37-13), Mississippi State (49-24), West Virginia (41-30) and Ball State (54-30), not only averaging 45.2 points per game but also 526.2 yards per outing with a near perfect balance of 265 passing ypg and 261.2 rushing ypg. After cashing in its first three contests, Auburn gave up 13 points to Ball State in garbage time last week to come up short as a 32-point home chalk.
Tennessee bounced back from a 10-point loss at top-ranked Florida with last Saturday’s 34-23 home win over Ohio, falling way short, though, as a 23½-point chalk. The Vols have scored 97 points in their two victories but just 28 in their two defeats, but the defense has been rock solid all year, surrendering just 18 points and 233 yards per outing (87 rushing ypg). Going back to last season, Tennessee held seven straight opponents to 23 points or less (15 ppg).
Auburn arrives in Knoxville having won four in a row against Tennessee (2-2 ATS), though three of contests were in Alabama. Last year, the Tigers held on for a 14-12 win, falling short as a 6½-point home chalk, as the Vols improved to 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Nine of the last 12 clashes have been decided by 10 points or fewer, including two ties, and the underdog has cashed in three straight since 2004.
Although they’ve covered in three of four this year, the Tigers are still in ATS ruts of 4-10 overall, 0-5 on the road, 1-4 as an underdog (all on the road), 2-7 in SEC play, 0-4 in October and 0-7 after a non-cover. Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last eight conference games, but 3-7 ATS in its last 10 at home and 9-20 ATS in its last 29 as a home chalk.
Auburn has topped the total in all four games this season, but the under is 5-1 in its last six on the road, 11-4 in its last 15 as a road pup and 13-5 in its last 18 SEC games. Also, the Vols are on “under” runs of 19-6-1 overall, 34-16-3 at home, 22-8-2 in conference action, 9-3-1 as a chalk, 12-3-1 against winning teams, 5-0 in October, 5-0-1 after a SU win and 8-0 after an ATS setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER
