Jim Feist's 20-Star College Football High Roller Mismatch - Saturday!
CF (117) WISCONSIN VS (118) MINNESOTA
Take: (118) MINNESOTA
Reason: 20-Star High Roller Mismatch: Minnesota.
After playing 4 in a row at home, Wisconsin (4-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) heads out on the road. And this defense is suspect. They had a 34-31 victory over Fresno State with 413 total yards, but the defense gave up 468 yards (179 rushing). The Badgers also have up 30 pionts and 420 yards to Michigan State. Wisconsin has been great at home, but 3-9 ATS its last 12 away. Tim Brewster brought the spread offense to Minnesota (3-1 SU/ATS) and has junior QB Adam Weber (5 TD, 5 picks) and senior WR Eric Decker, a top talent. Wisconsin has won the last two years in shootouts, 41-34 and 35-32, but Minnesota is improved and the Badgers' weak defense will be explosed in its first road contest. Play Minnesota.
CF (117) WISCONSIN VS (118) MINNESOTA
Take: (118) MINNESOTA
Reason: 20-Star High Roller Mismatch: Minnesota.
After playing 4 in a row at home, Wisconsin (4-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) heads out on the road. And this defense is suspect. They had a 34-31 victory over Fresno State with 413 total yards, but the defense gave up 468 yards (179 rushing). The Badgers also have up 30 pionts and 420 yards to Michigan State. Wisconsin has been great at home, but 3-9 ATS its last 12 away. Tim Brewster brought the spread offense to Minnesota (3-1 SU/ATS) and has junior QB Adam Weber (5 TD, 5 picks) and senior WR Eric Decker, a top talent. Wisconsin has won the last two years in shootouts, 41-34 and 35-32, but Minnesota is improved and the Badgers' weak defense will be explosed in its first road contest. Play Minnesota.
BRYAN LEONARD'S SATURDAY NCAA SHOCKER
143/144 Washington at Notre Dame
We played against both these teams last week and swept the board with easy covers. Washington was off their huge upset of USC and Notre Dame as always was overvalued. Well this week we will back the Huskies as the Irish continue to remain overrated.
Washington has faced much tougher defenses than this Notre Dame stop unit and had solid success. They produced 23 points and 5.8 yards per play against LSU. They then pulled off the shocker against USC who owns one of the top stop units in the nation. QB Jake Locker should have a field day moving the chains, and the Huskies look to have a key contributor WR Devin Aguilar back on the field this week. Defensively Washington will give up some points and yardage but they will be facing a depleted Irish scoring unit.
Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen and RB Armondo Allen will both play but they won't be 100%. Last week the offense struggled without the injured Michael Floyd and the team averaged just 4.8 yards per play against a questionable Purdue defense. Washington's stop unit compares with that of the Boilermakers so we can't see Claussen and company putting up much more than the 24 points they scored last week. Defensively the Irish have stopped nobody with the possible exception of Nevada who has looked terrible thus far. They allowed 5.7 yards per play to Purdue, 7.1 ypp to Michigan State and 6.1 ypp to Michigan. Even in shutting out the Wolf Pack they permitted 5.5 yards per play.
Simply put the Irish are not nearly as good as the media would have you believe. They are off three straight last second outcomes with two of those games falling in their favor. In the Charlie Weis regime Notre Dame is 8-14 ATS as a home favorite with six outright losses. Look for a high scoring affair as Washington matches the Irish all day long in another late game finish.
PLAY WASHINGTON
143/144 Washington at Notre Dame
We played against both these teams last week and swept the board with easy covers. Washington was off their huge upset of USC and Notre Dame as always was overvalued. Well this week we will back the Huskies as the Irish continue to remain overrated.
Washington has faced much tougher defenses than this Notre Dame stop unit and had solid success. They produced 23 points and 5.8 yards per play against LSU. They then pulled off the shocker against USC who owns one of the top stop units in the nation. QB Jake Locker should have a field day moving the chains, and the Huskies look to have a key contributor WR Devin Aguilar back on the field this week. Defensively Washington will give up some points and yardage but they will be facing a depleted Irish scoring unit.
Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen and RB Armondo Allen will both play but they won't be 100%. Last week the offense struggled without the injured Michael Floyd and the team averaged just 4.8 yards per play against a questionable Purdue defense. Washington's stop unit compares with that of the Boilermakers so we can't see Claussen and company putting up much more than the 24 points they scored last week. Defensively the Irish have stopped nobody with the possible exception of Nevada who has looked terrible thus far. They allowed 5.7 yards per play to Purdue, 7.1 ypp to Michigan State and 6.1 ypp to Michigan. Even in shutting out the Wolf Pack they permitted 5.5 yards per play.
Simply put the Irish are not nearly as good as the media would have you believe. They are off three straight last second outcomes with two of those games falling in their favor. In the Charlie Weis regime Notre Dame is 8-14 ATS as a home favorite with six outright losses. Look for a high scoring affair as Washington matches the Irish all day long in another late game finish.
PLAY WASHINGTON
Wizard of OddsGuaranteed SelectionsDate: Saturday, October 03, 2009
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118 MINNESOTA -2.5 12 NOON EST
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118 MINNESOTA -2.5 12 NOON EST
Hey guy's I'm new to posting but not new to the site..thank's for all the post...I want to do my part.
Big Al
3* Kentucky - At 12:20 pm, our SEC Shocker of the Year is on the Kentucky Wildcats plus the points over Alabama. Last week, Kentucky was gashed 41-7 by the top-ranked Florida Gators, but off that loss the Wildcats fall into one of my best College Football conference systems. It's 121-68 ATS since 1980 and it plays on certain teams off a blowout loss who are matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS Win (Alabama checks into Saturday's game off a win + cover over Arkansas). Nick Saban's men are 4-0 overall, and ranked #3 in the country. But this will be a tough ballgame. In its last two wins, the Crimson Tide held each of Arkansas and North Texas to seven points. However, college favorites of -7 or more points are a dismal 10-26 ATS since 1995 on the conference road off back to back SU/ATS wins in which they didn't give up more than seven points. And if their foe has a win percentage of .600 or better, then our 26-10 stat zooms to 11-0 ATS. This will be Alabama's first true road game (after one neutral-sited, and three home games), and favorites playing their first road game at Game 5 of the season (or later) are big-time money burners vs. conference foes, including a poor 31% ATS since 1980 off a conference win. Finally, Alabama suffered a big loss in its win last week vs. Arkansas. Linebacker Dont'a Hightower suffered a knee injury and was lost for the season. Hightower's versatility (he could play both Linebacker and Defensive End) enabled Alabama's coaching staff to easily modify defensive formations without shuttling in new personnel, and the Crimson Tide will have a more difficult time, going forward, disguising its defensive schemes. This year has seen an inordinate amount of upset wins by double-digit underdogs, and an outright victory by Rich Brooks' Wildcats wouldn't be a complete surprise. Take the points.
3* Air Force -
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Air Force plus the points against Navy. The Midshipmen are easily the best road team in college football (86-39 ATS away from home since 1988). But at home, it's a completely opposite story, as Navy is 29-49 ATS over the last 21 seasons, including 4-28 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up win (the Falcons won 26-14 last week)! That's one reason why I like the Air Force. Another is that Air Force falls into a statistical system of mine that plays on certain strong rushing teams, as underdogs, that average 4.2 yards per rush (or better). Air Force currently averages 4.8 yards per rush, and piles up a staggering 319 rushing yards per game. This system is 139-72 ATS since 1980. Air Force will also get QB Tim Jefferson back for this game. Jefferson suffered a sprained ankle two weeks ago vs. New Mexico and missed last week's action against San Diego St. Jefferson is a big part of the Falcon offense, and was named Mountain West Freshman of the Year last season after recording a 5-3 record as Air Force's starting QB. He can both run and pass, and has accounted for 317 yards this season, without turning it over. Last year, Air Force dominated Navy in the stats (outgaining the Midshipmen 411-244), but lost 33-27 due to having two punts blocked for TDs. Similarly, in 2007, Air Force also outgained Navy 474-381, but penalties and turnovers did them in. But this year, Air Force is protecting the ball well, and forcing a lot of turnovers, and ranks second in the country in turnover differential at plus 3.3 turnovers per game! The Falcons also rank 9th in the country in scoring defense (11.8 ppg). Rivalry Game of the Month on Air Force.
Opinion picks
California - At 8 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears plus the points over USC. To say that the Bears might have been looking ahead to this home date with their rival, the USC Trojans, might be a bit of an understatement. After all, what else could explain the thumping Jeff Tedford's men took at the hands of the Oregon Ducks up in Eugene. Cal was favored by 5 points in that game, yet inexplicably lost 42-3. However, college football home dogs of less than 20 points react EXTREMELY WELL off bad road losses in which they were favored (or an underdog of less than 3 points) when they are next matched up against teams off a win. Provided our "play-on" team (here, California) failed to cover by more than 8 points in that previous game, they are a solid 95-52 ATS off those embarassing losses. And we can tighten up our 95-52 ATS system further by requiring that our home dog lost by more than 20 points in its previous game. Then, our 95-52 stat races to 28-10 ATS. The Bears have a 9-game home win streak currently, and are 8-0 ATS in those nine games (with one off the board). NCAA Roadkill play on California.
Syracuse -
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Syracuse plus the points over South Florida. This is a perfect situational spot for the Orange. Last week, South Florida won a huge game when it upset Florida St 17-7 as a 14-point underdog. But off that win, let's step in and fade the Bulls on the road, as .570 (or better) road favorites are a terrible 31-54 ATS off an upset win as a 7-point (or greater) underdog. Syracuse is playing better football under first-year coach Doug Marrone (a former NFL assistant and Syracuse alumnus), and is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. The Orange have won their last two games to even their record at 2-2, and are a far cry from the club that went 10-37 over the previous four seasons. Indeed, one of Syracuse's two losses (vs. Minnesota) was in overtime, so the Orange could easily be 3-1. Also, Syracuse has scored 37 and 41 points in their last two games, and that's the first time since 2004 that the Orange have surpassed the 35-point mark in back-to-back games. (Points scored is a very strong predictor of future success in College Football, so that's a good sign for this game here.) Leading the Orange attack is QB Greg Paulus, who is completing 68 percent of his passes, and the air game is accounting for almost 70% of Syracuse's offensive yards. Although South Florida pulled last week's upset behind redshirt freshman QB B.J. Daniels, the Bulls would no doubt prefer to have QB Matt Grothe behind center, but Grothe is out for the year. That is a big loss for the Bulls, and Daniels certainly wasn't perfect last week as a passer (notwithstanding the win). He completed just 8 of 21 passes and had 2 TDs, but also threw 2 interceptions. That kind of performance (a low completion percentage, with high turnovers) won't normally get the job done on the road. Look for Syracuse to extend its ATS winning streak to 4-0 this season. Take the points.
Texas El Paso
showing love to my fellow posters...
Big Al
3* Kentucky - At 12:20 pm, our SEC Shocker of the Year is on the Kentucky Wildcats plus the points over Alabama. Last week, Kentucky was gashed 41-7 by the top-ranked Florida Gators, but off that loss the Wildcats fall into one of my best College Football conference systems. It's 121-68 ATS since 1980 and it plays on certain teams off a blowout loss who are matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS Win (Alabama checks into Saturday's game off a win + cover over Arkansas). Nick Saban's men are 4-0 overall, and ranked #3 in the country. But this will be a tough ballgame. In its last two wins, the Crimson Tide held each of Arkansas and North Texas to seven points. However, college favorites of -7 or more points are a dismal 10-26 ATS since 1995 on the conference road off back to back SU/ATS wins in which they didn't give up more than seven points. And if their foe has a win percentage of .600 or better, then our 26-10 stat zooms to 11-0 ATS. This will be Alabama's first true road game (after one neutral-sited, and three home games), and favorites playing their first road game at Game 5 of the season (or later) are big-time money burners vs. conference foes, including a poor 31% ATS since 1980 off a conference win. Finally, Alabama suffered a big loss in its win last week vs. Arkansas. Linebacker Dont'a Hightower suffered a knee injury and was lost for the season. Hightower's versatility (he could play both Linebacker and Defensive End) enabled Alabama's coaching staff to easily modify defensive formations without shuttling in new personnel, and the Crimson Tide will have a more difficult time, going forward, disguising its defensive schemes. This year has seen an inordinate amount of upset wins by double-digit underdogs, and an outright victory by Rich Brooks' Wildcats wouldn't be a complete surprise. Take the points.
3* Air Force -
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Air Force plus the points against Navy. The Midshipmen are easily the best road team in college football (86-39 ATS away from home since 1988). But at home, it's a completely opposite story, as Navy is 29-49 ATS over the last 21 seasons, including 4-28 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up win (the Falcons won 26-14 last week)! That's one reason why I like the Air Force. Another is that Air Force falls into a statistical system of mine that plays on certain strong rushing teams, as underdogs, that average 4.2 yards per rush (or better). Air Force currently averages 4.8 yards per rush, and piles up a staggering 319 rushing yards per game. This system is 139-72 ATS since 1980. Air Force will also get QB Tim Jefferson back for this game. Jefferson suffered a sprained ankle two weeks ago vs. New Mexico and missed last week's action against San Diego St. Jefferson is a big part of the Falcon offense, and was named Mountain West Freshman of the Year last season after recording a 5-3 record as Air Force's starting QB. He can both run and pass, and has accounted for 317 yards this season, without turning it over. Last year, Air Force dominated Navy in the stats (outgaining the Midshipmen 411-244), but lost 33-27 due to having two punts blocked for TDs. Similarly, in 2007, Air Force also outgained Navy 474-381, but penalties and turnovers did them in. But this year, Air Force is protecting the ball well, and forcing a lot of turnovers, and ranks second in the country in turnover differential at plus 3.3 turnovers per game! The Falcons also rank 9th in the country in scoring defense (11.8 ppg). Rivalry Game of the Month on Air Force.
Opinion picks
California - At 8 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears plus the points over USC. To say that the Bears might have been looking ahead to this home date with their rival, the USC Trojans, might be a bit of an understatement. After all, what else could explain the thumping Jeff Tedford's men took at the hands of the Oregon Ducks up in Eugene. Cal was favored by 5 points in that game, yet inexplicably lost 42-3. However, college football home dogs of less than 20 points react EXTREMELY WELL off bad road losses in which they were favored (or an underdog of less than 3 points) when they are next matched up against teams off a win. Provided our "play-on" team (here, California) failed to cover by more than 8 points in that previous game, they are a solid 95-52 ATS off those embarassing losses. And we can tighten up our 95-52 ATS system further by requiring that our home dog lost by more than 20 points in its previous game. Then, our 95-52 stat races to 28-10 ATS. The Bears have a 9-game home win streak currently, and are 8-0 ATS in those nine games (with one off the board). NCAA Roadkill play on California.
Syracuse -
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Syracuse plus the points over South Florida. This is a perfect situational spot for the Orange. Last week, South Florida won a huge game when it upset Florida St 17-7 as a 14-point underdog. But off that win, let's step in and fade the Bulls on the road, as .570 (or better) road favorites are a terrible 31-54 ATS off an upset win as a 7-point (or greater) underdog. Syracuse is playing better football under first-year coach Doug Marrone (a former NFL assistant and Syracuse alumnus), and is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. The Orange have won their last two games to even their record at 2-2, and are a far cry from the club that went 10-37 over the previous four seasons. Indeed, one of Syracuse's two losses (vs. Minnesota) was in overtime, so the Orange could easily be 3-1. Also, Syracuse has scored 37 and 41 points in their last two games, and that's the first time since 2004 that the Orange have surpassed the 35-point mark in back-to-back games. (Points scored is a very strong predictor of future success in College Football, so that's a good sign for this game here.) Leading the Orange attack is QB Greg Paulus, who is completing 68 percent of his passes, and the air game is accounting for almost 70% of Syracuse's offensive yards. Although South Florida pulled last week's upset behind redshirt freshman QB B.J. Daniels, the Bulls would no doubt prefer to have QB Matt Grothe behind center, but Grothe is out for the year. That is a big loss for the Bulls, and Daniels certainly wasn't perfect last week as a passer (notwithstanding the win). He completed just 8 of 21 passes and had 2 TDs, but also threw 2 interceptions. That kind of performance (a low completion percentage, with high turnovers) won't normally get the job done on the road. Look for Syracuse to extend its ATS winning streak to 4-0 this season. Take the points.
Texas El Paso
showing love to my fellow posters...
New here...but wanted to show you all love...all paid and confirmed....gl guys...more post later...he's been awful in baseball...0-2-1 yesterday...and i believe 0-6-1 last few baseball plays...luckily i fade...gl guys.
Big Al
3* Kentucky (SEC Shocker of Year 100% 11-0 ATS system)
3* Air Force (Rivalry GOM.....28-4 ATS Angle!)
OP* California (NCAA RoadKill...100%ATS)
OP* Syracuse (High Noon Hanging)
OP* Texas El Paso
Big Al
3* Kentucky (SEC Shocker of Year 100% 11-0 ATS system)
3* Air Force (Rivalry GOM.....28-4 ATS Angle!)
OP* California (NCAA RoadKill...100%ATS)
OP* Syracuse (High Noon Hanging)
OP* Texas El Paso
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div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Κανονικός πίνακας"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} </style> <![endif]-->[FONT="]nflpicks.comTODAY'S FREE PICKS[/FONT]
[FONT="] [/FONT][FONT="](138-76 last 5 years)[/FONT]
[FONT="]Saturday's Free College Pick - Miami Fla +7.5[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT]
[FONT="] [/FONT][FONT="]Sunday's Free NFL Pick - Pittsburgh -6.5[/FONT]
the record is true, i follow them regularly . This year 2-2 on free picks.
anyone has their picks?
[FONT="][/FONT][FONT="] [/FONT][FONT="]Sunday's Free NFL Pick - Pittsburgh -6.5[/FONT]
the record is true, i follow them regularly . This year 2-2 on free picks.
anyone has their picks?
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The Penn State game does not match his description of the game. He expects his team to win by 3 TDs and he says to look at smaller conferences.
On Comcast in Chicago, his best bet was Tulsa, who is a 17 point road favorite, playing in a smaller conference. That game would seem to fit his description a little better.
Also, last week his Saturday play was Ga. Tech. This was also the pick he gave away for free as his Best Bet on the same Comcast show last week.
All this would point to Tulsa for me, but I have not paid for it, and it is not confirmed.
Sammy Jankus
I rate my plays 3, 4 and 5 stars. Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.
1) Arkansas vs Texas A&M
3* (183) ARKANSAS (-1)
Don’t understand this line at all. The Razorbacks’ supposedly powerful offense was held to just 7 feeble points by Alabama last week while the Aggies were putting the hammer down on UAB, 56-19. Plus, unbeaten A&M should enjoy a major fan advantage as this ‘neutral’ site game is being played at the new Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. I think the wrong team is favored here and the Aggies will win OUTRIGHT – so your play is on ARKANSAS.
I rate my plays 3, 4 and 5 stars. Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.
1) Arkansas vs Texas A&M
3* (183) ARKANSAS (-1)
Don’t understand this line at all. The Razorbacks’ supposedly powerful offense was held to just 7 feeble points by Alabama last week while the Aggies were putting the hammer down on UAB, 56-19. Plus, unbeaten A&M should enjoy a major fan advantage as this ‘neutral’ site game is being played at the new Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. I think the wrong team is favored here and the Aggies will win OUTRIGHT – so your play is on ARKANSAS.
