Dr. Bob
4 Star Selection
Ohio State (+5) over MINNESOTA
09-Jan-10 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Ohio State's top player Evan Turner returned to the starting lineup on Wednesday night in a 79-54 blowout win over Indiana after missing nearly 7 games with a back injury. Turner's return is more than enough for the Buckeyes to get past an overrated Minnesota team that has destroyed mediocre and bad teams but has struggled against good teams this season. The Golden Gophers have played 6 games against decent or good teams this season and their only impressive showing among those 6 games was a 9 point win over Butler back in November. Since then the Gophers have lost to Portland, Texas A&M, Miami-Florida, and were killed by Purdue on Tuesday night while barely beating Penn State by 5 points as a 13 point favorite. Minnesota is just 1-5 ATS in those 6 games against decent teams and their average game rating in those 6 games is more than 8 points worse than their overall rating, which was built up by beating up on bad teams. Ohio State was 0-6 ATS without Turner and 7-2 ATS when he starts and my ratings favor Minnesota by just 2 points in this game if big man Ralph Sampson plays for the Gophers after missing the last two games (he's questionable). Not only is there line value in favor Ohio State but the Buckeyes apply to a 47-10-2 ATS road underdog situation while Minnesota applies to a negative 42-120-7 ATS based on their loss to Purdue. I'll take Ohio State in a 4-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more, for 3-Stars from +4 1/2 to +3 and for 2-Stars down to +2 points.
Play Strength: 4-Stars at +5 or more, 3-Stars to +3 and 2-Stars down to +2.
3 Star Selection
ILLINOIS STATE (pick) over Northern Iowa
09-Jan-10 01:00 PM Pacific Time
Northern Iowa has won 12 consecutive games and is on an 8 game spread win streak, but the Panthers apply to a negative 25-56-1 ATS situation that plays against road teams that have won and covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games. Illinois State, meanwhile, has won 5 of their last 6 games (4-0-1 ATS) and the Redbirds qualify in a very strong 100-29-2 ATS home momentum situation. My ratings favor the Redbirds by 1/2 a point, so this line is pretty fair and I'm even willing to give up a bit of line value to play the great situation. I'll take Illinois State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars at -1 1/2 or -2 points.
Play Strength: 3-Stars at -1 or better, 2-Stars up to -2.
4 Star Selection
Ohio State (+5) over MINNESOTA
09-Jan-10 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Ohio State's top player Evan Turner returned to the starting lineup on Wednesday night in a 79-54 blowout win over Indiana after missing nearly 7 games with a back injury. Turner's return is more than enough for the Buckeyes to get past an overrated Minnesota team that has destroyed mediocre and bad teams but has struggled against good teams this season. The Golden Gophers have played 6 games against decent or good teams this season and their only impressive showing among those 6 games was a 9 point win over Butler back in November. Since then the Gophers have lost to Portland, Texas A&M, Miami-Florida, and were killed by Purdue on Tuesday night while barely beating Penn State by 5 points as a 13 point favorite. Minnesota is just 1-5 ATS in those 6 games against decent teams and their average game rating in those 6 games is more than 8 points worse than their overall rating, which was built up by beating up on bad teams. Ohio State was 0-6 ATS without Turner and 7-2 ATS when he starts and my ratings favor Minnesota by just 2 points in this game if big man Ralph Sampson plays for the Gophers after missing the last two games (he's questionable). Not only is there line value in favor Ohio State but the Buckeyes apply to a 47-10-2 ATS road underdog situation while Minnesota applies to a negative 42-120-7 ATS based on their loss to Purdue. I'll take Ohio State in a 4-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more, for 3-Stars from +4 1/2 to +3 and for 2-Stars down to +2 points.
Play Strength: 4-Stars at +5 or more, 3-Stars to +3 and 2-Stars down to +2.
3 Star Selection
ILLINOIS STATE (pick) over Northern Iowa
09-Jan-10 01:00 PM Pacific Time
Northern Iowa has won 12 consecutive games and is on an 8 game spread win streak, but the Panthers apply to a negative 25-56-1 ATS situation that plays against road teams that have won and covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games. Illinois State, meanwhile, has won 5 of their last 6 games (4-0-1 ATS) and the Redbirds qualify in a very strong 100-29-2 ATS home momentum situation. My ratings favor the Redbirds by 1/2 a point, so this line is pretty fair and I'm even willing to give up a bit of line value to play the great situation. I'll take Illinois State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars at -1 1/2 or -2 points.
Play Strength: 3-Stars at -1 or better, 2-Stars up to -2.
Andrew Bucciarelli
Friday 2-2 (+0.68 units)
Current RUN 50-27 (+35.52 Units)
Florida Panthers (+134) at Ottawa Senators (-145) – (2**)
This is the second of four meetings as the road team has won four of the last five matchups. After their fifth loss in seven games, Panthers coach Peter DeBoer was in a sour mood on Wednesday morning when he put his team through a physical workout. Ottawa is still without Spezza (right knee, out until early March) and Alfredsson. The Panthers have scored 120 goals entering Saturday's clash with the Senators -- 14th in the League.
Take FLORIDA.
Tampa Bay Lightning (+191) at Philadelphia Flyers (-209) – (2**)
This is the third meeting between the teams. The Flyers won the first two games. The Flyers could move into eighth place in the Eastern Conference if they win and the Devils win in Montreal Saturday night. Flyers rookie left wing James van Riemsdyk has three goals in two games and six points in three games. Leighton is 6-0-1 with a 2.22 goals-against average as the Flyers' starter. Richards has scored in three straight games. Carter has seven points in five games. … Lightning center Vincent Lecavalier has 13 points in 10 games. St. Louis has 11 points in the past eight games. With five power-play goals in two games, the Flyers moved back into second place with a 23.4 percent success rate. Great night for the rookie watch: Van Riemsdyk is tied for second among NHL rookies with 16 assists and tied for fourth with 10 goals. Look for a big from the rookie of the Flyers.
Take PHILADELPHIA.
New York Rangers (+125) at Boston Bruins (-135) – (2**)
This is the third of four meetings between the teams, but the first visit for the Rangers to TD Garden. While the Rangers have earned at least one point in 10 of their last 11 games, the Bruins will be out for revenge after a tough 3-2 loss in New York on Monday. For New York, Lundqvist has allowed two goals or fewer in 13 of his past 16 games. Pesky winger Sean Avery tied a career-high with four points on Wednesday against Dallas. Newcomer Erik Christensen has five points in his past five games while forward Ales Kotalik has 2 goals in the past three games. One thing is certain for the surging Rangers, Henrik Lundqvist will be rested.
Take NEW YORK.
New Jersey Devils (-125) at Montreal Canadiens (+115) – (1*)
Second of four meetings this season. Patrik Elias scored with 2:36 left in the third period and New Jersey claimed a 2-1 win on home ice Dec. 16. Martin Brodeur returns to play in Montreal for the first time since he dramatically tied Patrick Roy's all-time wins record last March. Devils captain Jamie Langenbrunner has five goals and eight points during a five-game points streak, while Patrik Elias has seven goals and nine assists in his last 14 games. New Jersey plays for the second time in as many nights, although the Devils probably did more sitting around and waiting Friday than they did skating and shooting.
Take NEW JERSEY.
Friday 2-2 (+0.68 units)
Current RUN 50-27 (+35.52 Units)
Florida Panthers (+134) at Ottawa Senators (-145) – (2**)
This is the second of four meetings as the road team has won four of the last five matchups. After their fifth loss in seven games, Panthers coach Peter DeBoer was in a sour mood on Wednesday morning when he put his team through a physical workout. Ottawa is still without Spezza (right knee, out until early March) and Alfredsson. The Panthers have scored 120 goals entering Saturday's clash with the Senators -- 14th in the League.
Take FLORIDA.
Tampa Bay Lightning (+191) at Philadelphia Flyers (-209) – (2**)
This is the third meeting between the teams. The Flyers won the first two games. The Flyers could move into eighth place in the Eastern Conference if they win and the Devils win in Montreal Saturday night. Flyers rookie left wing James van Riemsdyk has three goals in two games and six points in three games. Leighton is 6-0-1 with a 2.22 goals-against average as the Flyers' starter. Richards has scored in three straight games. Carter has seven points in five games. … Lightning center Vincent Lecavalier has 13 points in 10 games. St. Louis has 11 points in the past eight games. With five power-play goals in two games, the Flyers moved back into second place with a 23.4 percent success rate. Great night for the rookie watch: Van Riemsdyk is tied for second among NHL rookies with 16 assists and tied for fourth with 10 goals. Look for a big from the rookie of the Flyers.
Take PHILADELPHIA.
New York Rangers (+125) at Boston Bruins (-135) – (2**)
This is the third of four meetings between the teams, but the first visit for the Rangers to TD Garden. While the Rangers have earned at least one point in 10 of their last 11 games, the Bruins will be out for revenge after a tough 3-2 loss in New York on Monday. For New York, Lundqvist has allowed two goals or fewer in 13 of his past 16 games. Pesky winger Sean Avery tied a career-high with four points on Wednesday against Dallas. Newcomer Erik Christensen has five points in his past five games while forward Ales Kotalik has 2 goals in the past three games. One thing is certain for the surging Rangers, Henrik Lundqvist will be rested.
Take NEW YORK.
New Jersey Devils (-125) at Montreal Canadiens (+115) – (1*)
Second of four meetings this season. Patrik Elias scored with 2:36 left in the third period and New Jersey claimed a 2-1 win on home ice Dec. 16. Martin Brodeur returns to play in Montreal for the first time since he dramatically tied Patrick Roy's all-time wins record last March. Devils captain Jamie Langenbrunner has five goals and eight points during a five-game points streak, while Patrik Elias has seven goals and nine assists in his last 14 games. New Jersey plays for the second time in as many nights, although the Devils probably did more sitting around and waiting Friday than they did skating and shooting.
Take NEW JERSEY.
Lockoftheday
Two Selection Saturday:
NCAA Pick: Mississippi -2.5
Big SEC battle in Mississippi today, and we are gonna stay on the home team here. Ole Miss is a slight favorite in this rivalry and is 8-0 @ home this season. The Favorite is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Last season, Ole Miss suffered a tough 2 pt loss @home to Miss St. We expect a very different outcome as Miss gets revenge in a big way on their home court! Take the Rebels -2.5.
NCAA Pick: Cincinnati/ Seton Hall Over 143
Cincinnati averages nearly 73 pts per game; Seton Hall nearly 86 pts per game. Despite the last 4 match-ups going under in this series, we have a strong feeling were gonna see many more pts in this contest. The bearcats show a trend of scoring big on Saturdays: The over has hit 10/14 times in Cincinnati's last 14 games on the weekend. This game should be in the high 70's as it projects out to atleast 148 pts by our estimates, so we'll take the edge and go over 143 in this match-up!
Two Selection Saturday:
NCAA Pick: Mississippi -2.5
Big SEC battle in Mississippi today, and we are gonna stay on the home team here. Ole Miss is a slight favorite in this rivalry and is 8-0 @ home this season. The Favorite is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Last season, Ole Miss suffered a tough 2 pt loss @home to Miss St. We expect a very different outcome as Miss gets revenge in a big way on their home court! Take the Rebels -2.5.
NCAA Pick: Cincinnati/ Seton Hall Over 143
Cincinnati averages nearly 73 pts per game; Seton Hall nearly 86 pts per game. Despite the last 4 match-ups going under in this series, we have a strong feeling were gonna see many more pts in this contest. The bearcats show a trend of scoring big on Saturdays: The over has hit 10/14 times in Cincinnati's last 14 games on the weekend. This game should be in the high 70's as it projects out to atleast 148 pts by our estimates, so we'll take the edge and go over 143 in this match-up!
Ferringo NCAAB
more plays soon.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #518 Georgetown (-4.5) over Connecticut (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 9)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #526 Vanderbilt (-6) over Florida (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 9)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #519 Northeastern (-6) over Georgia State (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 9)
1-Unit Play. Take #523 St. John’s (+12.5) over Louisville (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 9)
more plays soon.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #518 Georgetown (-4.5) over Connecticut (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 9)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #526 Vanderbilt (-6) over Florida (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 9)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #519 Northeastern (-6) over Georgia State (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 9)
1-Unit Play. Take #523 St. John’s (+12.5) over Louisville (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 9)
Chris Jordan Saturday night winner ...
ODDSMAKERS DILEMMA
500♦ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Sorry all of you out there singing J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets ... I cannot rightfully back the Jets in this spot, with a rookie quarterback playing his first playoff game on the road against a team looking to prove it was third-rate last week.
In last Sunday’s night game, the Bengals held back a lot of the bread-and-butter in their arsenal, like the Double A-gap blitzes, like inside power runs by Ced Benson and active-motion by the receivers.
I know this is defensive wizard Rex Ryan's blitzing scheme, but all due respect, this unit hasn't seen a legitimate, first-rate offense since Nov. 22, when it went to New England and lost 31-14. To wit:
Nov. 29 vs. Carolina - 27-9 win over the Panthers' 19th-ranked offense
Dec. 3 vs. Buffalo - 19-13 win over the Bills' 30th-ranked offense
Dec. 10 vs. Tampa Bay - 26-3 win over the Bucs'
Dec. 20 vs. Atlanta - a 10-7 setback against
Dec. 27 vs. Indianapolis - a 29-15 win over the second strung Colts.
Jan. 3 vs. Cincinnati - a 37-0 win over the toothless-less Bengals
Now, don't get me wrong, the Bungles aren't exactly the most explosive bunch with the 24th-ranked offense. But they do rank ninth in rushing, and I am a firm believer there is no passing game that can succeed without an effective rushing game.
After all, it sets up your play action, it can force a member of the secondary toward the line of scrimmage to help fill those A-Gaps, leaving room for the receiving corps to roam and it ultimately causes confusion on those 3rd-and-short plays if the defense believes it's coming up the gut.
And for all intent purposes, let's assume the Jets defend well; what about Sanchez? I know there are many marveling at how he's managed to stay turnover-free the last two games, but the Colts and Bengals barely brought any fuel to the fire.
And, Brian Schottenheimer protected Sanchez by running the ball four times in seven third-and-long situations or using the Wildcat-formation in some of those situations. You don't think a full-strength Bengals defense will be better prepared this time around? No doubt about it, Schottenheimer is going to limit Sanchez’s throwing to first and second down, while hoping for third-and-manageable. But if the fourth-ranked defense gets to Sanchez early and often, he'll be gun shy the entire game.
Cause for rookie mistakes if you ask me.
I am going to play the home team in this one, as the Bengals are a solid 7-2 ATS when playing teams with a winning record - they play to the level of competition, as evidenced by them not exerting anything extra and/or worrying about inflated-line losses to Chiefs, Browns and Lions late in the season.
But I am advising you to BE SURE you're laying the 2-1/2 point spread that has been available all week. Do not get caught laying a field goal, in the event your book decides to move this line. If you see a -3, you're to purchase a half point down and lay only 2-1/2 points.
ODDSMAKERS DILEMMA
500♦ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Sorry all of you out there singing J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets ... I cannot rightfully back the Jets in this spot, with a rookie quarterback playing his first playoff game on the road against a team looking to prove it was third-rate last week.
In last Sunday’s night game, the Bengals held back a lot of the bread-and-butter in their arsenal, like the Double A-gap blitzes, like inside power runs by Ced Benson and active-motion by the receivers.
I know this is defensive wizard Rex Ryan's blitzing scheme, but all due respect, this unit hasn't seen a legitimate, first-rate offense since Nov. 22, when it went to New England and lost 31-14. To wit:
Nov. 29 vs. Carolina - 27-9 win over the Panthers' 19th-ranked offense
Dec. 3 vs. Buffalo - 19-13 win over the Bills' 30th-ranked offense
Dec. 10 vs. Tampa Bay - 26-3 win over the Bucs'
Dec. 20 vs. Atlanta - a 10-7 setback against
Dec. 27 vs. Indianapolis - a 29-15 win over the second strung Colts.
Jan. 3 vs. Cincinnati - a 37-0 win over the toothless-less Bengals
Now, don't get me wrong, the Bungles aren't exactly the most explosive bunch with the 24th-ranked offense. But they do rank ninth in rushing, and I am a firm believer there is no passing game that can succeed without an effective rushing game.
After all, it sets up your play action, it can force a member of the secondary toward the line of scrimmage to help fill those A-Gaps, leaving room for the receiving corps to roam and it ultimately causes confusion on those 3rd-and-short plays if the defense believes it's coming up the gut.
And for all intent purposes, let's assume the Jets defend well; what about Sanchez? I know there are many marveling at how he's managed to stay turnover-free the last two games, but the Colts and Bengals barely brought any fuel to the fire.
And, Brian Schottenheimer protected Sanchez by running the ball four times in seven third-and-long situations or using the Wildcat-formation in some of those situations. You don't think a full-strength Bengals defense will be better prepared this time around? No doubt about it, Schottenheimer is going to limit Sanchez’s throwing to first and second down, while hoping for third-and-manageable. But if the fourth-ranked defense gets to Sanchez early and often, he'll be gun shy the entire game.
Cause for rookie mistakes if you ask me.
I am going to play the home team in this one, as the Bengals are a solid 7-2 ATS when playing teams with a winning record - they play to the level of competition, as evidenced by them not exerting anything extra and/or worrying about inflated-line losses to Chiefs, Browns and Lions late in the season.
But I am advising you to BE SURE you're laying the 2-1/2 point spread that has been available all week. Do not get caught laying a field goal, in the event your book decides to move this line. If you see a -3, you're to purchase a half point down and lay only 2-1/2 points.
Among the best of all football handicappers Matt Rivers says to go with the Cincinnati Bengals minus the small number. Matt Rivers was the winningest handicapper ever on a large network of handicapping sites before being promoted to The Show at OffshoreInsiders.com.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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Last week was a total debacle for Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and the Bengals at the Meadowlands but gun to my head I’ll back the cheap home chalk here as it is cheap.
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Cincinnati</st1lace></st1:City> really can go one of two ways today. They can completely fold up shop and get outphysicaled once again by a very good Jets team or they can rebound and show that they really did not give a darn last week in <st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State> and if anything would have preferred to lose so they could face these Jets and not the Texans or Steelers.
Rex Ryan certainly has his defense and running game clicking on all cylinders but Mark Sanchez on the road in the playoffs is still too much of an issue to trust. I understand that the Jets won’t want to put him in a position to fail but there will be 3<SUP>rd</SUP> and 10’s that need to be converted with the pass and that could set up a disaster for gang green. One bad pick 6 could mean the game here as this thing should be low scoring and points will be at a premium.
Darrelle Revis more than likely will shut down Ochocinco because the guy is an absolute defensive God and Carson Palmer has struggled a ton of late but I think with Cedric Benson back in the lineup the Bengals will do what they have done all season long, run the ball, play defense and find a way to win.
Cincinnati beat Baltimore and Pittsburgh in both NFL picks meetings and after 10 wins this season I do not think this team is a fluke that has just all of a sudden lost it. The physical nature of the Jets is nothing more than the Ravens and Steelers and with their manhood on the line after last week I do think that Marvin Lewis’ squad should come out on top here in revenge.
With a ton of emotion and Chris Henry on everybody’s hearts it’s a tough script to believe Sanchez as a winning quarterback on the road.
Free picks: <st1:City><st1lace>Cincinnati</st1lace></st1:City> -2.5.
fficeffice" /><o></o>Last week was a total debacle for Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and the Bengals at the Meadowlands but gun to my head I’ll back the cheap home chalk here as it is cheap.
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Cincinnati</st1lace></st1:City> really can go one of two ways today. They can completely fold up shop and get outphysicaled once again by a very good Jets team or they can rebound and show that they really did not give a darn last week in <st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State> and if anything would have preferred to lose so they could face these Jets and not the Texans or Steelers.Rex Ryan certainly has his defense and running game clicking on all cylinders but Mark Sanchez on the road in the playoffs is still too much of an issue to trust. I understand that the Jets won’t want to put him in a position to fail but there will be 3<SUP>rd</SUP> and 10’s that need to be converted with the pass and that could set up a disaster for gang green. One bad pick 6 could mean the game here as this thing should be low scoring and points will be at a premium.
Darrelle Revis more than likely will shut down Ochocinco because the guy is an absolute defensive God and Carson Palmer has struggled a ton of late but I think with Cedric Benson back in the lineup the Bengals will do what they have done all season long, run the ball, play defense and find a way to win.
Cincinnati beat Baltimore and Pittsburgh in both NFL picks meetings and after 10 wins this season I do not think this team is a fluke that has just all of a sudden lost it. The physical nature of the Jets is nothing more than the Ravens and Steelers and with their manhood on the line after last week I do think that Marvin Lewis’ squad should come out on top here in revenge.
With a ton of emotion and Chris Henry on everybody’s hearts it’s a tough script to believe Sanchez as a winning quarterback on the road.
Free picks: <st1:City><st1
lace>Cincinnati</st1lace></st1:City> -2.5. GC- Saturday NCAAB System Club Play
On Saturday the NCAAB system club play is on Weber.St. Game 689 at 8:30 eastern. Weber. St is the better team here tonight and is good enough in this spot to win and cover. They are 27-9 vs losing teams,8-2 ats when the the total is 140 to 150, 15-3 In January the past few years, 6-0 after scoring 80 or more points in their last game and an incredible 17-2 ats in Saturday games. North Arizona may be at home tonight but they are just 2-7 vs winning teams, 1-5 with 1 or less days of rest and 1-4 straight up and ats as home dogs of 3 or less. Weber.St is the play here. On Saturday I have a Huge triple system NFL side 2 of the systems are 100% and one of them goes all the way back to 1978. I have a Solid NFL Totals system that is undefeated since 1989 and 3 college hoops plays including a Triple angle Blowout and a Big dog with bite that wins outright. The NBA will be on the late report. Jump on and cash out as this is a big deep money making card. We have cashed positive units on 6 of the last 7 Saturdays and will do more damage all day and night. Take Weber State tonight. BOL GC
On Saturday the NCAAB system club play is on Weber.St. Game 689 at 8:30 eastern. Weber. St is the better team here tonight and is good enough in this spot to win and cover. They are 27-9 vs losing teams,8-2 ats when the the total is 140 to 150, 15-3 In January the past few years, 6-0 after scoring 80 or more points in their last game and an incredible 17-2 ats in Saturday games. North Arizona may be at home tonight but they are just 2-7 vs winning teams, 1-5 with 1 or less days of rest and 1-4 straight up and ats as home dogs of 3 or less. Weber.St is the play here. On Saturday I have a Huge triple system NFL side 2 of the systems are 100% and one of them goes all the way back to 1978. I have a Solid NFL Totals system that is undefeated since 1989 and 3 college hoops plays including a Triple angle Blowout and a Big dog with bite that wins outright. The NBA will be on the late report. Jump on and cash out as this is a big deep money making card. We have cashed positive units on 6 of the last 7 Saturdays and will do more damage all day and night. Take Weber State tonight. BOL GC
