SportsNetwork
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Bengals seem to be treating last week's 37-0 thrashing at the hands of the Jets as no big deal, since Cincinnati clearly had very little urgency or intent to win that game. And that's probably the only approach they can take, but we have a feeling the Bengals are going to be stunned to learn that even when they are trying, they're not as good as the Jets. Cincinnati is 3-4 in its last seven games, with the wins coming over the Browns, Lions, and Chiefs, and is still hanging its hat on that 4-0 record against the Ravens and Steelers, two overrated teams that didn't have a high-quality win between them after October. The Bengals are average offensively on their best day, and don't figure to move the ball much on a Jets defense that looks like the real deal. Cincinnati is also going to have problems containing the Jets' top-ranked running game with Maualuga and Sims both out due to injury.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Jets 21, Bengals 10
SportsNetwork
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The days leading up to this game have revealed an awful lot about the public perception of both these teams, likely based on their polar-opposite performances in the postseason over the past few years. If the Cowboys had entered the playoffs off a 24-point loss in a meaningful finale, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone other than the most hardcore of fans with an optimistic outlook about their chances on Saturday. The Eagles' utterly-awful showing of last week -- even with so much on the line -- has drawn mostly shrugs from the pundits and prognosticators, however, as well as the worn-out mantra of how difficult it is to beat an opponent three times in one year. While that may be true, Dallas clearly was the better of these two foes in as close to a playoff setting as a regular-season game can provide, so it's hard to envision a drastically different outcome this time around. Reid and his accomplished staff will come up with the adjustments to make the sequel a more entertaining and competitive affair, but the ending may wind up being the same.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Cowboys 24, Eagles 13
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Bengals seem to be treating last week's 37-0 thrashing at the hands of the Jets as no big deal, since Cincinnati clearly had very little urgency or intent to win that game. And that's probably the only approach they can take, but we have a feeling the Bengals are going to be stunned to learn that even when they are trying, they're not as good as the Jets. Cincinnati is 3-4 in its last seven games, with the wins coming over the Browns, Lions, and Chiefs, and is still hanging its hat on that 4-0 record against the Ravens and Steelers, two overrated teams that didn't have a high-quality win between them after October. The Bengals are average offensively on their best day, and don't figure to move the ball much on a Jets defense that looks like the real deal. Cincinnati is also going to have problems containing the Jets' top-ranked running game with Maualuga and Sims both out due to injury.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Jets 21, Bengals 10
SportsNetwork
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The days leading up to this game have revealed an awful lot about the public perception of both these teams, likely based on their polar-opposite performances in the postseason over the past few years. If the Cowboys had entered the playoffs off a 24-point loss in a meaningful finale, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone other than the most hardcore of fans with an optimistic outlook about their chances on Saturday. The Eagles' utterly-awful showing of last week -- even with so much on the line -- has drawn mostly shrugs from the pundits and prognosticators, however, as well as the worn-out mantra of how difficult it is to beat an opponent three times in one year. While that may be true, Dallas clearly was the better of these two foes in as close to a playoff setting as a regular-season game can provide, so it's hard to envision a drastically different outcome this time around. Reid and his accomplished staff will come up with the adjustments to make the sequel a more entertaining and competitive affair, but the ending may wind up being the same.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Cowboys 24, Eagles 13
Mr A's Picks
Saturday, January 9th, 2010 4:30 PM EST.
New York Jets (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
Paul Brown Stadium - Cincinnati, Ohio
The Jets took apart the Bengals last week 37-0 at home, but the contest was of no great concern for Cincinnati, key players out, especially on defense. Look for a tight fight when they meet in Ohio. The Jets have won five of their last six and seven of the last eight against the Bengals, going 5-3 ATS. Take the Jets in a close game. Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS the last seven games.
Oddsmakers: Cincinnati as a -2½ point road favorite with the total listed at 34 'over'.
New York Jets +2½
Saturday, January 9th, 2010 8:00 PM EST.
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
Cowboys Stadium - Arlington, Texas
Dallas beat up on the Eagles, 24-0 in Week 17 for the second victory this season and the fourth in the last six. I don’t expect another blowout, but Philadelphia will have difficulty to keep up with Romo and boys in Dallas.
Oddsmakers: Dallas as a -4 point road favorite with the total listed at 45 'over'.
Dallas Cowboys -4
Saturday, January 9th, 2010 4:30 PM EST.
New York Jets (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
Paul Brown Stadium - Cincinnati, Ohio
The Jets took apart the Bengals last week 37-0 at home, but the contest was of no great concern for Cincinnati, key players out, especially on defense. Look for a tight fight when they meet in Ohio. The Jets have won five of their last six and seven of the last eight against the Bengals, going 5-3 ATS. Take the Jets in a close game. Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS the last seven games.
Oddsmakers: Cincinnati as a -2½ point road favorite with the total listed at 34 'over'.
New York Jets +2½
Saturday, January 9th, 2010 8:00 PM EST.
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
Cowboys Stadium - Arlington, Texas
Dallas beat up on the Eagles, 24-0 in Week 17 for the second victory this season and the fourth in the last six. I don’t expect another blowout, but Philadelphia will have difficulty to keep up with Romo and boys in Dallas.
Oddsmakers: Dallas as a -4 point road favorite with the total listed at 45 'over'.
Dallas Cowboys -4
Pilfo's Wildcard Parlay
Cincinnati may have the most balanced team in the playoffs this weekend and they are playing the most 1 dimensional team in the playoffs. The Bengals simply do not have a weak spot. They are above average in all categories from Running Backs to Wide Receivers to Special Teams to Defense to their under-rated Quarterback. The Jets have the best defender in the league and a very good defense overall but their one dimensional offense and their rookie quarterback will be their downfall in this game. Throw out last week's game between these two. This one if for real!
Prediction: Bengals 24-10
The Dallas Cowboys have been an improving team and a streaking team down the stretch which is what you want to enter the playoffs in the NFL. Romo has improved his timing with his receivers but the running game stays average. The Dallas defense has also stepped up in the past few games. So why do I like the Eagles in this one? If the Eagles would have won last week, which they certainly did not, we would be talking about the streaking Eagles instead of the streaking Cowpokies. After the Cowboys got out to a lead last week, the Eagles pretty much shut down their show as to not give anything for the Cowboys to look at on tape to lead up to their rematch. The thing the Eagles do best, they did not do. Rush the quarterback and get him out of rhythm. You will see a different Eagles team on the field this week that will keep Romo running for his life. Count on Wade Phillips to be out coached in this one.
Prediction: Eagles 27-21.
The Patriots are a team that has been running on heart, guts and great game-planning. Brady has been admirable and the defense is over-performing. The running game has been good also. That is where it ends though. The crude reality is that the Pats are banged up and the Ravens defense will be targeting Brady and all other injured players that take the filed. The Ravens offensive running game will dictate this game and open up the passing game to Mason and Kelly Washington who is actually the best receiver on the team. Look for a very physical game that wears down the Pats midway through the 3rd quarter.
Prediction: Ravens 24-20
3 Team Parlay: Bengals -3 / Eagles +4 / Ravens +3.5
Cincinnati may have the most balanced team in the playoffs this weekend and they are playing the most 1 dimensional team in the playoffs. The Bengals simply do not have a weak spot. They are above average in all categories from Running Backs to Wide Receivers to Special Teams to Defense to their under-rated Quarterback. The Jets have the best defender in the league and a very good defense overall but their one dimensional offense and their rookie quarterback will be their downfall in this game. Throw out last week's game between these two. This one if for real!
Prediction: Bengals 24-10
The Dallas Cowboys have been an improving team and a streaking team down the stretch which is what you want to enter the playoffs in the NFL. Romo has improved his timing with his receivers but the running game stays average. The Dallas defense has also stepped up in the past few games. So why do I like the Eagles in this one? If the Eagles would have won last week, which they certainly did not, we would be talking about the streaking Eagles instead of the streaking Cowpokies. After the Cowboys got out to a lead last week, the Eagles pretty much shut down their show as to not give anything for the Cowboys to look at on tape to lead up to their rematch. The thing the Eagles do best, they did not do. Rush the quarterback and get him out of rhythm. You will see a different Eagles team on the field this week that will keep Romo running for his life. Count on Wade Phillips to be out coached in this one.
Prediction: Eagles 27-21.
The Patriots are a team that has been running on heart, guts and great game-planning. Brady has been admirable and the defense is over-performing. The running game has been good also. That is where it ends though. The crude reality is that the Pats are banged up and the Ravens defense will be targeting Brady and all other injured players that take the filed. The Ravens offensive running game will dictate this game and open up the passing game to Mason and Kelly Washington who is actually the best receiver on the team. Look for a very physical game that wears down the Pats midway through the 3rd quarter.
Prediction: Ravens 24-20
3 Team Parlay: Bengals -3 / Eagles +4 / Ravens +3.5
Tuley the Tout NFL picks
NFL FOOTBALL (74-51-3, 59.2%, this season for a net profit of 17 units)
Jets +3 -120 vs. Bengals...should have posted this sooner, so grab -120 while still can
Eagles +4 vs. Cowboys...Dallas better of late, but not that good
Ravens-Patriots OVER 43...neither defense as good as they've had in recent years...no opinion on side
Cardinals -2.5 vs. Packers...ignore Sunday's Green Bay rout...grab in case it goes to 3
NFL FOOTBALL (74-51-3, 59.2%, this season for a net profit of 17 units)
Jets +3 -120 vs. Bengals...should have posted this sooner, so grab -120 while still can
Eagles +4 vs. Cowboys...Dallas better of late, but not that good
Ravens-Patriots OVER 43...neither defense as good as they've had in recent years...no opinion on side
Cardinals -2.5 vs. Packers...ignore Sunday's Green Bay rout...grab in case it goes to 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST
Saturday, January 9, 2010
New York Jets (+2½) at Cincinnati Bengals [AFC Wild Card]
Power Rating Projection:
New York Jets 22 Cincinnati Bengals 16
Statistical Projections
New York Jets 20
Rushing Yards: 165
Passing Yards: 129
Turnovers: 1
Cincinnati Bengals 14
Rushing Yards: 116
Passing Yards: 112
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to New York Jets
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cincinnati Bengals 20 New York Jets 10
Cincinnati Bengals (2 stars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Philadelphia Eagles (+4) at Dallas Cowboys [NFC Wild Card]
Power Rating Projection:
Dallas Cowboys 23 Philadelphia Eagles 21
Statistical Projections
Philadelphia Eagles 21
Rushing Yards: 95
Passing Yards: 253
Turnovers: 1
Dallas Cowboys 23
Rushing Yards: 130
Passing Yards: 254
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Dallas Cowboys 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23
Saturday, January 9, 2010
New York Jets (+2½) at Cincinnati Bengals [AFC Wild Card]
Power Rating Projection:
New York Jets 22 Cincinnati Bengals 16
Statistical Projections
New York Jets 20
Rushing Yards: 165
Passing Yards: 129
Turnovers: 1
Cincinnati Bengals 14
Rushing Yards: 116
Passing Yards: 112
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to New York Jets
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cincinnati Bengals 20 New York Jets 10
Cincinnati Bengals (2 stars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Philadelphia Eagles (+4) at Dallas Cowboys [NFC Wild Card]
Power Rating Projection:
Dallas Cowboys 23 Philadelphia Eagles 21
Statistical Projections
Philadelphia Eagles 21
Rushing Yards: 95
Passing Yards: 253
Turnovers: 1
Dallas Cowboys 23
Rushing Yards: 130
Passing Yards: 254
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Dallas Cowboys 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23
Vinnie Iyer
The opening week of the NFL playoffs looks eerily familiar.
In the NFC, it's an almost exact copy of what we just saw in Week 17 -- same bat hosts, same bat visitors, same bat stadiums, only with one different bat channel and two different bat times.
In the AFC, the Jets return the home-and-home favor with a trip to Cincinnati, and the Ravens and Patriots meet again in New England 14 weeks after playing there on Oct. 4.
NFC Game of the Week
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are going for a three-game sweep of their division rivals in hopes of getting their first playoff victory in 13 seasons. It also would be Tony Romo's first postseason win in three attempts. Looking at recent history and thinking that they can't pull it off against the Eagles for a second consecutive week and the third time since Week 9 would be a mistake, because, well, the past is in the past.
Romo is a better quarterback than he's ever been in his fourth season as an NFL starter. The defense has never been this good since the switch to a 3-4 under Bill Parcells. The combination of chemistry and confidence hasn't been there like this in quite some time. There are unreasonable expectations that often come with being America's Team, and taking in the mood of the locker room and realizing all the talent it has, you get a sense the Cowboys are ready to do something special.
On the field, the Cowboys have proved to be the better team than Philadelphia twice. They have the power running game to wear down the Eagles' pass rush and limit the blitzing. They have receivers such as Miles Austin and Jason Witten who can get open for big plays. Romo is playing at such a high level, he's reading everything well when under pressure.
Defensively, there have been two major developments. First, the secondary has turned into a solid unit, thanks to Mike ******* starring opposite Terence Newman. The linebackers have seen an upgrade, with Keith Brooking a perfect fit inside and Anthony Spencer emerging as a pass-rush threat opposite DeMarcus Ware. The Eagles being such a pass-heavy team plays right into the Cowboys' hands.
For some reason, Dallas couldn't beat the Giants this season, but they're not around any more. They match up much better against the Eagles, and that will show again on Saturday night. Cowboys 27, Eagles 24.
AFC Game of the Week
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals. In a playoff field loaded with top-flight quarterbacks, you can make the case that the Jets and Bengals are the two weakest at the position, despite the USC pedigrees of Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer. It's no secret that both teams have gotten to the playoffs on the strengths of stout defenses backed by grinding running games. Stuff the run, rush the passer and chew up clock with long, efficient scoring drives.
It's funny that the two backs involved with those game plans are former Bears -- Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. It must be something about a black-and-blue brand of football. Of course, the Jets have another tie to the Chicago way, with Rex Ryan coaching up an attacking 3-4 defense reminiscent of his father Buddy's best units. This should be an ugly, low-scoring game, and that will suit the younger Ryan and his Bengals counterpart, Marvin Lewis, just fine.
The difference here will be Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis and New York's offensive line. Revis will shut down Chad Ochocinco, making it very difficult for Cincinnati to move the ball in a one-dimensional rushing offense. On the other side, the loss of rookie linebacker Rey Maualuga is huge, because it will allow Jets run blockers to pave an easier way for Jones and Shonn Greene. Jets 19, Bengals 13
Shootout of the Week
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots. Remember Mark Clayton's drop on the Ravens' final drive against the Pats in Week 4? Had he caught that ball, there's a good chance the Ravens would have emerged winners from what was a 27-21 loss at Foxborough.
You know in the rematch that Baltimore will be adept at shutting down the Patriots' mix of backs in the running game. In turn the Patriots will work to take away what the Ravens do best -- move the ball with feature back Ray Rice.
.That should make Joe Flacco and Tom Brady confident to take to the air, where neither will be daunted by the other's team pass rush or secondary. Without having to worry about pesky Wes Welker, however, look for the Ravens to bracket their coverage on Randy Moss so they aren't beat deep, making Brady dink and dunk more, increasing the chance of a turnover.
As for Flacco, working with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, the Ravens will spread out the Patriots' defense with the pass, and then come back to the run with Rice and Willis McGahee to steal a victory later. Ravens 30, Patriots 27
Upset of the Week
Green Bay Packers over Arizona Cardinals. We've already picked the Jets and Ravens as underdogs, so going with the Packers is pure gravy. The Packers just throttled the resting Cards in Glendale last week, and they won't let up with more on the line.
Green Bay's 3-4 is capable of keeping Beanie Wells and Arizona's ground game in check, which will put the Packers in a good situation against the pass. Clay Matthews will lead the charge to put pressure on Kurt Warner, and as usual, cornerback Charles Woodson will come up with a big play or two.
Offensively, the Packers will keep Arizona off-balance with a balanced attack and Aaron Rodgers' mobility helping them make some big plays. They'll mix in Ryan Grant effectively to keep the Cardinals' aggressive front honest, and they'll score the decisive touchdown late. Packers 24, Cardinals 20
Stats of the Week
Week 17 record: 14-2 SU
Regular-season record: 165-75. SU
The opening week of the NFL playoffs looks eerily familiar.
In the NFC, it's an almost exact copy of what we just saw in Week 17 -- same bat hosts, same bat visitors, same bat stadiums, only with one different bat channel and two different bat times.
In the AFC, the Jets return the home-and-home favor with a trip to Cincinnati, and the Ravens and Patriots meet again in New England 14 weeks after playing there on Oct. 4.
NFC Game of the Week
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are going for a three-game sweep of their division rivals in hopes of getting their first playoff victory in 13 seasons. It also would be Tony Romo's first postseason win in three attempts. Looking at recent history and thinking that they can't pull it off against the Eagles for a second consecutive week and the third time since Week 9 would be a mistake, because, well, the past is in the past.
Romo is a better quarterback than he's ever been in his fourth season as an NFL starter. The defense has never been this good since the switch to a 3-4 under Bill Parcells. The combination of chemistry and confidence hasn't been there like this in quite some time. There are unreasonable expectations that often come with being America's Team, and taking in the mood of the locker room and realizing all the talent it has, you get a sense the Cowboys are ready to do something special.
On the field, the Cowboys have proved to be the better team than Philadelphia twice. They have the power running game to wear down the Eagles' pass rush and limit the blitzing. They have receivers such as Miles Austin and Jason Witten who can get open for big plays. Romo is playing at such a high level, he's reading everything well when under pressure.
Defensively, there have been two major developments. First, the secondary has turned into a solid unit, thanks to Mike ******* starring opposite Terence Newman. The linebackers have seen an upgrade, with Keith Brooking a perfect fit inside and Anthony Spencer emerging as a pass-rush threat opposite DeMarcus Ware. The Eagles being such a pass-heavy team plays right into the Cowboys' hands.
For some reason, Dallas couldn't beat the Giants this season, but they're not around any more. They match up much better against the Eagles, and that will show again on Saturday night. Cowboys 27, Eagles 24.
AFC Game of the Week
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals. In a playoff field loaded with top-flight quarterbacks, you can make the case that the Jets and Bengals are the two weakest at the position, despite the USC pedigrees of Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer. It's no secret that both teams have gotten to the playoffs on the strengths of stout defenses backed by grinding running games. Stuff the run, rush the passer and chew up clock with long, efficient scoring drives.
It's funny that the two backs involved with those game plans are former Bears -- Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. It must be something about a black-and-blue brand of football. Of course, the Jets have another tie to the Chicago way, with Rex Ryan coaching up an attacking 3-4 defense reminiscent of his father Buddy's best units. This should be an ugly, low-scoring game, and that will suit the younger Ryan and his Bengals counterpart, Marvin Lewis, just fine.
The difference here will be Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis and New York's offensive line. Revis will shut down Chad Ochocinco, making it very difficult for Cincinnati to move the ball in a one-dimensional rushing offense. On the other side, the loss of rookie linebacker Rey Maualuga is huge, because it will allow Jets run blockers to pave an easier way for Jones and Shonn Greene. Jets 19, Bengals 13
Shootout of the Week
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots. Remember Mark Clayton's drop on the Ravens' final drive against the Pats in Week 4? Had he caught that ball, there's a good chance the Ravens would have emerged winners from what was a 27-21 loss at Foxborough.
You know in the rematch that Baltimore will be adept at shutting down the Patriots' mix of backs in the running game. In turn the Patriots will work to take away what the Ravens do best -- move the ball with feature back Ray Rice.
.That should make Joe Flacco and Tom Brady confident to take to the air, where neither will be daunted by the other's team pass rush or secondary. Without having to worry about pesky Wes Welker, however, look for the Ravens to bracket their coverage on Randy Moss so they aren't beat deep, making Brady dink and dunk more, increasing the chance of a turnover.
As for Flacco, working with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, the Ravens will spread out the Patriots' defense with the pass, and then come back to the run with Rice and Willis McGahee to steal a victory later. Ravens 30, Patriots 27
Upset of the Week
Green Bay Packers over Arizona Cardinals. We've already picked the Jets and Ravens as underdogs, so going with the Packers is pure gravy. The Packers just throttled the resting Cards in Glendale last week, and they won't let up with more on the line.
Green Bay's 3-4 is capable of keeping Beanie Wells and Arizona's ground game in check, which will put the Packers in a good situation against the pass. Clay Matthews will lead the charge to put pressure on Kurt Warner, and as usual, cornerback Charles Woodson will come up with a big play or two.
Offensively, the Packers will keep Arizona off-balance with a balanced attack and Aaron Rodgers' mobility helping them make some big plays. They'll mix in Ryan Grant effectively to keep the Cardinals' aggressive front honest, and they'll score the decisive touchdown late. Packers 24, Cardinals 20
Stats of the Week
Week 17 record: 14-2 SU
Regular-season record: 165-75. SU
bdougsports
Bengals -2.5 vs. Jets
Great value here with the Bungles after they got their asses kicked at NY. The Jets were playing for their lives in Week 17 and the game meant nothing to the Bengals. The bashing they took could now be used as motivation for the Bengals who will have Cedric Benson, Robert Geathers, and Domata Peko back on the field. Cedric Benson has proven he can run against top defenses so his return will be huge. Meanwhile, California Boy Mark Sanchez will be playing in his first playoff game, and will be in very cold weather. With two defensive starters back the Bengals will be able to keep the Jets from running the ball like they did in Week 17. That means Dirty Sanchez will be forced to throw and should be good for 1-3 INTs. If he throws that crappy soft out pattern ball Joseph and Hall may be getting a pick 6. Meanwhile Rex “Fat Idiot” Ryan is running his mouth about how great his team is. Shut up fat boy, the Bengals took good notes in the Week 17 game and will be happy to return the favor against a rookie QB and rookie Head Coach.
Bengals -2.5 vs. Jets
Great value here with the Bungles after they got their asses kicked at NY. The Jets were playing for their lives in Week 17 and the game meant nothing to the Bengals. The bashing they took could now be used as motivation for the Bengals who will have Cedric Benson, Robert Geathers, and Domata Peko back on the field. Cedric Benson has proven he can run against top defenses so his return will be huge. Meanwhile, California Boy Mark Sanchez will be playing in his first playoff game, and will be in very cold weather. With two defensive starters back the Bengals will be able to keep the Jets from running the ball like they did in Week 17. That means Dirty Sanchez will be forced to throw and should be good for 1-3 INTs. If he throws that crappy soft out pattern ball Joseph and Hall may be getting a pick 6. Meanwhile Rex “Fat Idiot” Ryan is running his mouth about how great his team is. Shut up fat boy, the Bengals took good notes in the Week 17 game and will be happy to return the favor against a rookie QB and rookie Head Coach.
Ace-Ace Playoff Thread Round 1
$2500.00 Take #107 Green Bay (+1.5) over Arizona (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 10)
This play is part of my 99 System and it is my NFL Game of the Month. We went with Green Bay last week and we’re going to go with them again this time around. Arizona made a nice run last year in the postseason but over the past three years this has been a pretty average team. They have been really poor at home this season and right now I don’t think that they have much of a home field advantage. Green Bay has one of the top defenses in the NFL and one of the best offenses as well. And right now they are a team that is headed to the playoffs with a lot of momentum and a lot of confidence. They beat the Cards badly last week and will do the same this week.
$2500.00 Take #104 Dallas (-4) over Philadelphia (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 9)
This play is part of the 99 System. Dallas has pushed around the Eagles in their two games this season and I think that the Cowboys have a ton of momentum heading into this game. They blew out the Eagles at home last week and that was a game in which Philadelphia had everything to play for. This is a different Dallas team than the ones that have failed in the recent postseasons. I think that this team has a lot of momentum from wins over New Orleans and the Eagles over the last few weeks and right now are playing with the confidence that they can hammer anyone. Dallas’ defense has really stepped up and I think that it will be the difference again in this game.
Teaser
Dall +6.5
Gb +11
Over 23 NYJ vs cinn game.............................$300.00
Best to all
Ace-Ace
$2500.00 Take #107 Green Bay (+1.5) over Arizona (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 10)
This play is part of my 99 System and it is my NFL Game of the Month. We went with Green Bay last week and we’re going to go with them again this time around. Arizona made a nice run last year in the postseason but over the past three years this has been a pretty average team. They have been really poor at home this season and right now I don’t think that they have much of a home field advantage. Green Bay has one of the top defenses in the NFL and one of the best offenses as well. And right now they are a team that is headed to the playoffs with a lot of momentum and a lot of confidence. They beat the Cards badly last week and will do the same this week.
$2500.00 Take #104 Dallas (-4) over Philadelphia (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 9)
This play is part of the 99 System. Dallas has pushed around the Eagles in their two games this season and I think that the Cowboys have a ton of momentum heading into this game. They blew out the Eagles at home last week and that was a game in which Philadelphia had everything to play for. This is a different Dallas team than the ones that have failed in the recent postseasons. I think that this team has a lot of momentum from wins over New Orleans and the Eagles over the last few weeks and right now are playing with the confidence that they can hammer anyone. Dallas’ defense has really stepped up and I think that it will be the difference again in this game.
Teaser
Dall +6.5
Gb +11
Over 23 NYJ vs cinn game.............................$300.00
Best to all
Ace-Ace
Scott Spreitzer's Overall **NFL GAME OF THE YEAR!** (34-7, 83%) - Saturday
Pick(s):
(101) NEW YORK JETS vs (102) CINCINNATI BENGALS
Take (102) CINCINNATI BENGALS
I'm laying the points with the Bengals on Saturday afternoon, my NFL Game of the Year. Most figured Cincinnati would "mail it in" last week and they did. And thanks to the fact that they did struggle a bit down the stretch, I feel we're now getting great value with the much better team, which also happens to be at home. Cincinnati played with very little intensity and desire on both sides of the football last week. Subsequently, Jets' QB Mark Sanchez felt no pressure. This week's tilt will be much different. First of all, Sanchez has committed 29 turnovers this season, including fumbles and interceptions. He will be facing arguably, the best CB tandem in the league when Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph take the field. The pair were the first Cinci corners to each tally at least six interceptions in 24-years. They must be licking their chops to get this one started. The defensive line, and the stop-unit in general improved greatly over last season. They own the linebackers to take Sanchez' security blanket, TE Dustin Keller out of this game. And of course, the corners should have little trouble with Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards. The defensive line has done a great job at stuffing the run this season, and the unit received good news with the injury update on Domata Peko, who expects to start and play at 100%. With the other matchup advantages on this side of the ball, I am just as high on Cinci whether Peko plays or not. I truly expect the Jets' offense, behind the direction of the ridiculously turnover-prone rookie QB to have a tough time topping 10-points this week. Let's not forget that before the Colts and Bengals "laid down" for the Jets, the offense scored a grand total of just 83-points in their previous five games, for an average of 16.6 ppg. 26 of those points came against the hapless Buccaneer defense. You want a true read of this offense? Just take a look at the last time they played against a team that cared. That was three games ago, a 10-7 loss to Atlanta. The Jets couldn't muster a running game (3 yards per carry) and scored just seven points on a 65-yard TD, thanks to blown covereage by the Falcon defense. Sanchez finished that game with 1 TD, 3 INTs, and a passer rating of 49.7. Cincinnati's offense fooled many this season. Most were expecting a return to a high-flying, pass-happy attack. But they showed great balance, thanks in part to a strong run-blocking offensive line. The unit started 15 games together this season, and allowed 22 fewer sacks this season than they did in 2008, besides opening up consistent holes for the running game. Yes, I know the Jets' run defense owns superb numbers. But I don't believe they'll sustain the energy needed to overcome what I expect to be a mistake-filled contest by their offense. And which QB do you think is better prepared to handle blitz-schemes? Mark "INT waiting to happen" Sanchez? Or, the experienced Carson Palmer? I know who I want in a game with a line so short. Cincinnati is on a 7-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record. And NFL teams, in a line range that includes this number, and with a win percentage of .600 to .750 are 27-6, ATS, in revenge of a loss of 14 or more points. That's a combined, 34-7 situation. The matchups all side with Cinci. The QB situation is a huge advantage for the Bengals, and the "techs" are the icing on the cake. I'm laying the points with the Bengals, my NFL Game of the Year. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Pick(s):
(101) NEW YORK JETS vs (102) CINCINNATI BENGALS
Take (102) CINCINNATI BENGALS
I'm laying the points with the Bengals on Saturday afternoon, my NFL Game of the Year. Most figured Cincinnati would "mail it in" last week and they did. And thanks to the fact that they did struggle a bit down the stretch, I feel we're now getting great value with the much better team, which also happens to be at home. Cincinnati played with very little intensity and desire on both sides of the football last week. Subsequently, Jets' QB Mark Sanchez felt no pressure. This week's tilt will be much different. First of all, Sanchez has committed 29 turnovers this season, including fumbles and interceptions. He will be facing arguably, the best CB tandem in the league when Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph take the field. The pair were the first Cinci corners to each tally at least six interceptions in 24-years. They must be licking their chops to get this one started. The defensive line, and the stop-unit in general improved greatly over last season. They own the linebackers to take Sanchez' security blanket, TE Dustin Keller out of this game. And of course, the corners should have little trouble with Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards. The defensive line has done a great job at stuffing the run this season, and the unit received good news with the injury update on Domata Peko, who expects to start and play at 100%. With the other matchup advantages on this side of the ball, I am just as high on Cinci whether Peko plays or not. I truly expect the Jets' offense, behind the direction of the ridiculously turnover-prone rookie QB to have a tough time topping 10-points this week. Let's not forget that before the Colts and Bengals "laid down" for the Jets, the offense scored a grand total of just 83-points in their previous five games, for an average of 16.6 ppg. 26 of those points came against the hapless Buccaneer defense. You want a true read of this offense? Just take a look at the last time they played against a team that cared. That was three games ago, a 10-7 loss to Atlanta. The Jets couldn't muster a running game (3 yards per carry) and scored just seven points on a 65-yard TD, thanks to blown covereage by the Falcon defense. Sanchez finished that game with 1 TD, 3 INTs, and a passer rating of 49.7. Cincinnati's offense fooled many this season. Most were expecting a return to a high-flying, pass-happy attack. But they showed great balance, thanks in part to a strong run-blocking offensive line. The unit started 15 games together this season, and allowed 22 fewer sacks this season than they did in 2008, besides opening up consistent holes for the running game. Yes, I know the Jets' run defense owns superb numbers. But I don't believe they'll sustain the energy needed to overcome what I expect to be a mistake-filled contest by their offense. And which QB do you think is better prepared to handle blitz-schemes? Mark "INT waiting to happen" Sanchez? Or, the experienced Carson Palmer? I know who I want in a game with a line so short. Cincinnati is on a 7-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record. And NFL teams, in a line range that includes this number, and with a win percentage of .600 to .750 are 27-6, ATS, in revenge of a loss of 14 or more points. That's a combined, 34-7 situation. The matchups all side with Cinci. The QB situation is a huge advantage for the Bengals, and the "techs" are the icing on the cake. I'm laying the points with the Bengals, my NFL Game of the Year. Thanks! GL! Scott.
sports insights
NFL Marketwatch - Week 18 Playoff Edition
1/8/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry's largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro Membership. You'll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays at 6:25pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average, SportsInsights.com's Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every sport!
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 18 Wild Card Weekend
Recapping Regular Season
The holiday season was joyous for the sportsbook industry in NFL Weeks 15 and 16, but the party ended in NFL Week 17. Last Sunday closed the final chapter on a tough NFL regular season for the sportsbook industry. All sportsbooks reported a slightly negative weekend with most losing between 0-1% of their handle. It was a tough NFL regular season for the sportsbooks. Let's just say we're all glad the playoffs are finally here.
Our Games to Watch stumbled in the final week, going 2-2, and for the season, that put us slightly above .500 but unfortunately in the red , 25-23-2, 52.1%. This is the first time in five seasons that NFL Marketwatch failed to produce positive results. We're proud of our overall five-year record of 137-105 (56.7%), but disappointed in a sub-par 2009 NFL Season. We look to return to our winning ways in 2010!
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public went 4-4. For the season, that puts the Public "in the red" with a record of 66-64 = 50.7%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the 2009 NFL regular season went the way of the "Square."
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
Year Record Win Percentage
NFL 2009-10 25-23 52.1%
NFL 2008-09 26-22 54.2%
NFL 2007-08 26-19 57.8%
NFL 2006-07 31-18 63.3%
NFL 2005-06 31-24 56.4%
TOTAL 139-106 56.7%
View Last Week's Column:
Special Thanks
I'd like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds. It's been an education in itself. I'd also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch. Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value.
NFL Wild Card Weekend - Games to Watch Playoff Edition (0-0 = 0.0%)
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game's betting line. They'll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
This game is the most lopsided-bet game of the week. Almost 80% of the bets are taking the Green Bay Packers (both spread bets and teasers/parlays). This is a perfect example of Public money causing irrational line movement. Public money is pushing this line from its opener of Arizona -2.5 to a +1.5. Arizona is the home team -- and that is a huge move in the point spread. Historical results show that there is value in getting a home underdog in the playoffs.
In addition to "betting against the Public" and taking Arizona, SportsInsights had a "Smart Money" play on Arizona triggered by Carib Sports 36-18, +13.7 units. Arizona isn't getting much respect, even though they lost last year's Super Bowl by just four points! Take the under-valued Arizona Cardinals to be a live dog at home.
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 (Bodog)
So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week's Games to Watch - Playoff Edition for the NFL.
Games to Watch - Playoff Edition (0-0 0%)
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 (Bodog)
NFL Marketwatch - Week 18 Playoff Edition
1/8/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry's largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro Membership. You'll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays at 6:25pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average, SportsInsights.com's Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every sport!
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 18 Wild Card Weekend
Recapping Regular Season
The holiday season was joyous for the sportsbook industry in NFL Weeks 15 and 16, but the party ended in NFL Week 17. Last Sunday closed the final chapter on a tough NFL regular season for the sportsbook industry. All sportsbooks reported a slightly negative weekend with most losing between 0-1% of their handle. It was a tough NFL regular season for the sportsbooks. Let's just say we're all glad the playoffs are finally here.
Our Games to Watch stumbled in the final week, going 2-2, and for the season, that put us slightly above .500 but unfortunately in the red , 25-23-2, 52.1%. This is the first time in five seasons that NFL Marketwatch failed to produce positive results. We're proud of our overall five-year record of 137-105 (56.7%), but disappointed in a sub-par 2009 NFL Season. We look to return to our winning ways in 2010!
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public went 4-4. For the season, that puts the Public "in the red" with a record of 66-64 = 50.7%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the 2009 NFL regular season went the way of the "Square."
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
Year Record Win Percentage
NFL 2009-10 25-23 52.1%
NFL 2008-09 26-22 54.2%
NFL 2007-08 26-19 57.8%
NFL 2006-07 31-18 63.3%
NFL 2005-06 31-24 56.4%
TOTAL 139-106 56.7%
View Last Week's Column:
Special Thanks
I'd like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds. It's been an education in itself. I'd also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch. Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value.
NFL Wild Card Weekend - Games to Watch Playoff Edition (0-0 = 0.0%)
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game's betting line. They'll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
This game is the most lopsided-bet game of the week. Almost 80% of the bets are taking the Green Bay Packers (both spread bets and teasers/parlays). This is a perfect example of Public money causing irrational line movement. Public money is pushing this line from its opener of Arizona -2.5 to a +1.5. Arizona is the home team -- and that is a huge move in the point spread. Historical results show that there is value in getting a home underdog in the playoffs.
In addition to "betting against the Public" and taking Arizona, SportsInsights had a "Smart Money" play on Arizona triggered by Carib Sports 36-18, +13.7 units. Arizona isn't getting much respect, even though they lost last year's Super Bowl by just four points! Take the under-valued Arizona Cardinals to be a live dog at home.
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 (Bodog)
So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week's Games to Watch - Playoff Edition for the NFL.
Games to Watch - Playoff Edition (0-0 0%)
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 (Bodog)
