There is ONE premium play that had not kicked off yet so here was today's full card. I am also giving you the play...here so you guys have everything but the Syndicate play.
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SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS: (FINAL)
3% FRESNO STATE +17(NCAA GAME OF THE MONTH)
2% ARIZONA STATE/GEORGIA UNDER 51 (7:00 kickoff)
2% VIRGINIA TECH +3
2% OREGON +6
STRONG OPINION SELECTION (1%) ON FRESNO STATE +$600
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THE NCAA UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH
FRESNO ST (1-2) at CINCINNATI (3-0)
Well this is a little bitter sweet since my lone loss last week was on this very Cincinnati team as I had fully expected them to falter at the hands of Oregon State. Well, as the saying goes, “good things always come to those that wait” and that win on the road sets up very nicely for what is without a question the very best play on the board this weekend and the strongest play I have seen to date in the early college football season in terms of line value. The reason for the value is simple; the public sees a team with a losing record, playing on the road, against an undefeated and ranked opponent. However, the public should be in for a surprise on Saturday because once we look inside the numbers we can see that Fresno is no ordinary 1 win team. Indeed, Fresno State (1-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) is a very talented and experienced that returned 7 starters on offense and 9 on defense. They have a new quarterback with lefty Ryan Colburn (6 touchdowns, 6interceptions), who has a strong arm. The backfield is deep with junior Ryan Mathews (107 yards vs. Wisconsin) and Lonyae Miller, and the receivers have the speed to stretch things out. Now I mentioned above how Fresno is not an ordinary team with a losing record in my opinion. They started the season with a 51-0 win against California Davis (which we will give no credence to in this analysis). In week number 2 they traveled to Wisconsin and suffered a frustrating 34-31 overtime loss. Last weekend they traveled to No. 14 ranked Boise State and lost 51-34. So yes “on paper” they are 1-2. Ignoring the week number 1 win, if you go inside the stats we see something very interesting with this Fresno team. Despite the losing result, they outgained Wisconsin by 55 yards (with an incredible 468 yards of total offense; 179 rushing), but the only difference in that game was their “new” quarterback Colburn threw 3 interceptions. Some say that’s terrible. However, let’s put this in perspective guys. This was a new quarterback, playing in his first real college football game, in an environment that is one of the more difficult road venues for opposing college teams. The fact that they outgained Wisconsin and he still threw for four (4) touchdowns should be impressive enough. The next week, they hosted a Boise State team that is among the best in the county. The scoreboard said they lost by 17 points, but the ITS stats show a different story. Against this top ranked opponent, Fresno rolled up 507 yards (a whopping 320 rushing). Indeed, Boise State only outgained Fresno by 27 yards, so the ITS shows that these teams were evenly matched as the only difference was the two fumbles by Fresno. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) is coming home after a very load long road trip to Oregon State, where they won 28-18. For 2009, seven starters return on offense, led by senior quarterback Tony Pike (8 touchdowns, 2 interceptions). He threw for a career-high 362 yards and three touchdowns against Rutgers, taking advantage of a new no-huddle offense installed by head coach Kelly in the off-season. The passing game is loaded with experience, led by senior wide receiver Marshwan Gilyard and junior wide receiver Marcus Barnett. Their other two wins (like Fresno’s) are really not worth mentioning as they destroyed Rutgers in week #1 47-15 then bludgeoned Southeast Missouri State (who?) 70-3.
So why Fresno? Well if this game was played last weekend, the line would have been minus 11. A week later, the line is now a whopping 17!!!! WOW. Does anybody else think that is a massive overreaction? Fresno played Boise (one of the best teams in the nation) almost even ITS and they actually outgained Wisconsin. In contrast, Cincinnati has one quality win this season and it was by no means anything that was a blowout ITS. The public is starting to believe that Cincinnati is emerging as the favorite to win the Big East for a second straight season and every game is very important. In contrast, Fresno State arrives, as usual, without any concerns about taking a step up in weight class and should play lose and fast in this non-conference tilt. The reality is that Fresno has without question one of the he most potent offenses in the country after three games, combining an explosive ground game with the low-risk passing of Ryan Colburn which is the right receipt against a powerful offensive home team. In other words, Fresno IS a team that can go toe to toe with the powerful offense of Cincinnati. Fresno will be the FIRST test for this Cincinnati defense as well that entered the season with 10 new starters. I also like the situational set-up here as Fresno played last Friday night, while their host was across the country playing in a late time slot. Take the points but you will not need them today. Fresno wins outright!
Verdict: Fresno State 34, Cincinnati 28
PLAY 2* UNITS (3%) ON FRESNO STATE +17
STRONG OPINION SELECTION (1%) ON FRESNO STATE +$600
ARIZONA ST (2-0)
at
GEORGIA (2-1)
Since this is a total, I am going to keep this analysis short and sweet as it basically comes down to a question and a brief answer. Does anybody really believe the Georgia has one of the best offenses in the nation? The answer is if they do…they are out of their minds. This line is totally out of whack based on their previous two outings where they have scored a whopping 93 points against South Carolina and Arkansas. The total output in those two games is an incredible 85.5 points. Well hat at least explains why the lines maker made such a significant adjustment this weekend, but we need to look at those two outings as more of an aberration than what the norm is. Apparently, the lines makers completely forgot about what happened in week #1 of the season where Georgia lost 24-10 at Oklahoma State. So why is it they were able to put up 93 points over their last 2 contests? Well if you take a look inside the stats (here we go again) we notice that it wasn’t necessarily their offense that was doing the lion’s share of the work, nor was it their defense that was yielding all those points. Indeed, despite scoring 41 points against South Carolina, their offense only mustered 301 total yards of offense which means their average starting field position was the 50 yards line in that contest. Hugh? We also know that the Georgia offense has turned the ball over far too many times so far this young season (9 times) which had lead to opponents scoring 40 points (an aggregate average of 39% of the 102 points yielded by the defense to date). For example, in last weekend’s contest, where a total of 93 points was put up by both teams, Arkansas was able to put up 21 points on 3 drives that averaged only 37 yards, while all of their scores came with field position within the 50 yard line. Certainly the Georgia head coach KNOWS that if this trend continues his team will in some serious trouble against the SEC powerhouse teams. Another aberration last week was the fact that the Georgia offense scored 6 touchdowns that averaged 41 yards, with all being scored from outside the 20. Head Devil coach Erickson is well aware and said this week, “You’ve got to keep things in front of you, tackle well.” In other words, he’ll let UGA dink and dunk but wants to limit the big plays. Enter an Arizona State club that comes into this contest with the number 1 ranked defense in the NCAA. Now I fully admit this is a bit of a joke because they have played the likes of Idaho State and Louisiana-Monroe. So yes (on paper) the Sun Devils have given up a meager 17 points in eight quarters and have collected eight turnovers. But they have yet to be tested. One note: their defense did hold Idaho State to just 37 yards of total offense…INCREDIBLE! Aside from the fact that they are not tested, their defense is extremely talented lead by a solid defensive line that includes future NFL prospects Dexter Davis and Lawrence Guy. Aside from possessing a very strong defensive unit the same cannot be said for their offense, which is arguably one of the worst in the nation for a BCS team. To make matters worse, this will be the first road game for inexperienced ASU quarterback and playing at Georgia isn’t the best place to get your feet wet. Now some of are you saying wait a minute, Arizona State has scored 88 points in two games. Well yes, but…a top tier high school team would put up 60 against those squads. What is interesting is their yield as they have only averaged 372 yards per game against abysmal competition. From a technical perspective we take solace in the fact that Arizona State is 8-0 UNDER after a cover as a double digit favorite over the last three seasons. Oh and by the way we are assisted a bit by mother nature as there is a 60% chance of showers tonight to help soften up the already saturated field and tomorrow…oh boy a 70% chance of rain…locally very heavy! Ahh forget it…here read it for yourself…right out of the severe weather advisory.
* THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
* A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH GEORGIA SATURDAY. DUE TO EXCESSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOILS STILL SATURATED FROM WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EARLIER THIS WEEK...ANY HEAVY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. THE WATCH AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKLIN THROUGH MCDONOUGH AND ATHENS TO DANIELSVILLE.
* SOILS REMAIN SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PAST 10 DAYS. THUS ANY HEAVY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF INTO CREEKS AND STREAMS...LEADING TO RAPID RISES. THIS EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER THIS WEEK...BUT LOCALIZED AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD ...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON T DROWN.
I’m in. soft field means bad footing, which minimizes big play threats. Don’t look for a lot of point so I am playing this one UNDER. Verdict: Arizona State 14, Georgia 20
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON ARIZONA STATE/GEORGIA UNDER 51
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SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS: (FINAL)
3% FRESNO STATE +17(NCAA GAME OF THE MONTH)
2% ARIZONA STATE/GEORGIA UNDER 51 (7:00 kickoff)
2% VIRGINIA TECH +3
2% OREGON +6
STRONG OPINION SELECTION (1%) ON FRESNO STATE +$600
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THE NCAA UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH
FRESNO ST (1-2) at CINCINNATI (3-0)
Well this is a little bitter sweet since my lone loss last week was on this very Cincinnati team as I had fully expected them to falter at the hands of Oregon State. Well, as the saying goes, “good things always come to those that wait” and that win on the road sets up very nicely for what is without a question the very best play on the board this weekend and the strongest play I have seen to date in the early college football season in terms of line value. The reason for the value is simple; the public sees a team with a losing record, playing on the road, against an undefeated and ranked opponent. However, the public should be in for a surprise on Saturday because once we look inside the numbers we can see that Fresno is no ordinary 1 win team. Indeed, Fresno State (1-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) is a very talented and experienced that returned 7 starters on offense and 9 on defense. They have a new quarterback with lefty Ryan Colburn (6 touchdowns, 6interceptions), who has a strong arm. The backfield is deep with junior Ryan Mathews (107 yards vs. Wisconsin) and Lonyae Miller, and the receivers have the speed to stretch things out. Now I mentioned above how Fresno is not an ordinary team with a losing record in my opinion. They started the season with a 51-0 win against California Davis (which we will give no credence to in this analysis). In week number 2 they traveled to Wisconsin and suffered a frustrating 34-31 overtime loss. Last weekend they traveled to No. 14 ranked Boise State and lost 51-34. So yes “on paper” they are 1-2. Ignoring the week number 1 win, if you go inside the stats we see something very interesting with this Fresno team. Despite the losing result, they outgained Wisconsin by 55 yards (with an incredible 468 yards of total offense; 179 rushing), but the only difference in that game was their “new” quarterback Colburn threw 3 interceptions. Some say that’s terrible. However, let’s put this in perspective guys. This was a new quarterback, playing in his first real college football game, in an environment that is one of the more difficult road venues for opposing college teams. The fact that they outgained Wisconsin and he still threw for four (4) touchdowns should be impressive enough. The next week, they hosted a Boise State team that is among the best in the county. The scoreboard said they lost by 17 points, but the ITS stats show a different story. Against this top ranked opponent, Fresno rolled up 507 yards (a whopping 320 rushing). Indeed, Boise State only outgained Fresno by 27 yards, so the ITS shows that these teams were evenly matched as the only difference was the two fumbles by Fresno. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) is coming home after a very load long road trip to Oregon State, where they won 28-18. For 2009, seven starters return on offense, led by senior quarterback Tony Pike (8 touchdowns, 2 interceptions). He threw for a career-high 362 yards and three touchdowns against Rutgers, taking advantage of a new no-huddle offense installed by head coach Kelly in the off-season. The passing game is loaded with experience, led by senior wide receiver Marshwan Gilyard and junior wide receiver Marcus Barnett. Their other two wins (like Fresno’s) are really not worth mentioning as they destroyed Rutgers in week #1 47-15 then bludgeoned Southeast Missouri State (who?) 70-3.
So why Fresno? Well if this game was played last weekend, the line would have been minus 11. A week later, the line is now a whopping 17!!!! WOW. Does anybody else think that is a massive overreaction? Fresno played Boise (one of the best teams in the nation) almost even ITS and they actually outgained Wisconsin. In contrast, Cincinnati has one quality win this season and it was by no means anything that was a blowout ITS. The public is starting to believe that Cincinnati is emerging as the favorite to win the Big East for a second straight season and every game is very important. In contrast, Fresno State arrives, as usual, without any concerns about taking a step up in weight class and should play lose and fast in this non-conference tilt. The reality is that Fresno has without question one of the he most potent offenses in the country after three games, combining an explosive ground game with the low-risk passing of Ryan Colburn which is the right receipt against a powerful offensive home team. In other words, Fresno IS a team that can go toe to toe with the powerful offense of Cincinnati. Fresno will be the FIRST test for this Cincinnati defense as well that entered the season with 10 new starters. I also like the situational set-up here as Fresno played last Friday night, while their host was across the country playing in a late time slot. Take the points but you will not need them today. Fresno wins outright!
Verdict: Fresno State 34, Cincinnati 28
PLAY 2* UNITS (3%) ON FRESNO STATE +17
STRONG OPINION SELECTION (1%) ON FRESNO STATE +$600
ARIZONA ST (2-0)
Since this is a total, I am going to keep this analysis short and sweet as it basically comes down to a question and a brief answer. Does anybody really believe the Georgia has one of the best offenses in the nation? The answer is if they do…they are out of their minds. This line is totally out of whack based on their previous two outings where they have scored a whopping 93 points against South Carolina and Arkansas. The total output in those two games is an incredible 85.5 points. Well hat at least explains why the lines maker made such a significant adjustment this weekend, but we need to look at those two outings as more of an aberration than what the norm is. Apparently, the lines makers completely forgot about what happened in week #1 of the season where Georgia lost 24-10 at Oklahoma State. So why is it they were able to put up 93 points over their last 2 contests? Well if you take a look inside the stats (here we go again) we notice that it wasn’t necessarily their offense that was doing the lion’s share of the work, nor was it their defense that was yielding all those points. Indeed, despite scoring 41 points against South Carolina, their offense only mustered 301 total yards of offense which means their average starting field position was the 50 yards line in that contest. Hugh? We also know that the Georgia offense has turned the ball over far too many times so far this young season (9 times) which had lead to opponents scoring 40 points (an aggregate average of 39% of the 102 points yielded by the defense to date). For example, in last weekend’s contest, where a total of 93 points was put up by both teams, Arkansas was able to put up 21 points on 3 drives that averaged only 37 yards, while all of their scores came with field position within the 50 yard line. Certainly the Georgia head coach KNOWS that if this trend continues his team will in some serious trouble against the SEC powerhouse teams. Another aberration last week was the fact that the Georgia offense scored 6 touchdowns that averaged 41 yards, with all being scored from outside the 20. Head Devil coach Erickson is well aware and said this week, “You’ve got to keep things in front of you, tackle well.” In other words, he’ll let UGA dink and dunk but wants to limit the big plays. Enter an Arizona State club that comes into this contest with the number 1 ranked defense in the NCAA. Now I fully admit this is a bit of a joke because they have played the likes of Idaho State and Louisiana-Monroe. So yes (on paper) the Sun Devils have given up a meager 17 points in eight quarters and have collected eight turnovers. But they have yet to be tested. One note: their defense did hold Idaho State to just 37 yards of total offense…INCREDIBLE! Aside from the fact that they are not tested, their defense is extremely talented lead by a solid defensive line that includes future NFL prospects Dexter Davis and Lawrence Guy. Aside from possessing a very strong defensive unit the same cannot be said for their offense, which is arguably one of the worst in the nation for a BCS team. To make matters worse, this will be the first road game for inexperienced ASU quarterback and playing at Georgia isn’t the best place to get your feet wet. Now some of are you saying wait a minute, Arizona State has scored 88 points in two games. Well yes, but…a top tier high school team would put up 60 against those squads. What is interesting is their yield as they have only averaged 372 yards per game against abysmal competition. From a technical perspective we take solace in the fact that Arizona State is 8-0 UNDER after a cover as a double digit favorite over the last three seasons. Oh and by the way we are assisted a bit by mother nature as there is a 60% chance of showers tonight to help soften up the already saturated field and tomorrow…oh boy a 70% chance of rain…locally very heavy! Ahh forget it…here read it for yourself…right out of the severe weather advisory.
* THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
* A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH GEORGIA SATURDAY. DUE TO EXCESSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOILS STILL SATURATED FROM WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EARLIER THIS WEEK...ANY HEAVY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. THE WATCH AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKLIN THROUGH MCDONOUGH AND ATHENS TO DANIELSVILLE.
* SOILS REMAIN SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PAST 10 DAYS. THUS ANY HEAVY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF INTO CREEKS AND STREAMS...LEADING TO RAPID RISES. THIS EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER THIS WEEK...BUT LOCALIZED AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD ...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON T DROWN.
I’m in. soft field means bad footing, which minimizes big play threats. Don’t look for a lot of point so I am playing this one UNDER. Verdict: Arizona State 14, Georgia 20
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON ARIZONA STATE/GEORGIA UNDER 51
I personally didn't take the game. However, if you are a bettor that counts his money at halftime every time that you are winning, I have to say that you lose more than you win. There is a reason the game is divided into quarters and you get a break at the "halftime"
Now that being said, Miami looks flat and not in concert. You may be right about VT, but the purpose of this forum is not to call out the bettors from the other side and F with them. We should be in this together and try to help each other win. You have no class, you are classless!!
Anyone else get :bunnies: with no lube on airforce ? Settled for 2 field goals in the first half when at the 3 and 4 yard line. about 4 minutes to go in the 4th quarter there up 26-2. State scores to make it 26-8 still covering. With about 13 seconds to go State runs a play gets a few yards they then clock the ball. Then with 0 seconds on the clock the QB hits a 35 yard TD pass to end the game 26-14. Toughest beat i have had in years.
hno:In all honesty, I don't have either side for the game but do have Miami 2nd half. If the TE Graham catches 1 of those 2 passes Miami would have scored both their first 2 drives this half. They've adjusted and offensively going to play much better this half. Covering for the game is a long shot I'll admit. They will make it a game though.
Thank God i didn't touch UNLV...as i posted earlier in the day, last time Kelso had them (200 units) they got taken to the woodshed by San Diego State last year...I'm sure most of us remember that...they are down 3 with 2 minutes left...hope they win for you fellas that took them, but according to his website this was gonna be a 5 td burial...guy is usually money when it comes to his big plays, but when it was UNLV i stayed away...
