Service Plays Saturday 09/26/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Black Widow

4* on Colorado State +17

The Rams are quietly 3-0 to start the season with good wins over Colorado and Nevada. BYU is deflated right now after losing to Florida State 54-28 last weekend in Provo. The Cougars will come out flat Saturday after having their BCS aspirations crushed last week. Colorado State won't have any problem getting motivated for this one Saturday. The Rams lost 42-45 at home last year to the Cougars as 16-point underdogs. Colorado State has had this one circled on their calendars for about 9 months. Colorado State is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) against teams who commit 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season since 1992. The Rams have forced 10 turnovers in 3 games, while BYU has committed 10 turnovers in 3 games. Right now, CSU is +7 in turnover margin and BYU is -4. The turnover battle will be won by CSU, giving the Rams a chance to win this thing outright. Take Colorado State and the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Black Widow

4* on Oregon State +1

Oregon State is getting no respect early in the season, and that's why they are getting the right price Saturday. This team has only lost to Cincinnati 28-18 at home, and the Bearcats are worthy of being a Top-5 team this season. Now they face Arizona at home, a team that has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Wildcats put up just 17 points last week at Iowa, and one of those touchdowns was a defensive score. They rushed for 148 yards which was respectable, but completed just 10-of-26 passes for 105 yards. Oregon State is stout against the run, which will take away Arizona's strength and force the Wildcats to put the ball in the air. The Beavers are giving up only 78 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry in 3 games. Oregon State is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games since 1992. Take the Beavers and the points.

 

[Cardiff]

<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%"><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>The Experts</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Saturday, September 26, 2009
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380 Penn St -9 8:00 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Mosi]

Lance's Lock

Pick: Va Tech +3
Overall: 848-734-31
Current Streak: 1 loss

 

[golfball]

any spartan 3* pick ? Thank you

Allready started

Air Force -17.5

 

[Tiznow214]

Was kelso's 100* on unlv for sure cpaw

Coglye West is on UNLV too

Coglye West
12* UNLV -3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mean Green Profit Machine

UAB - Texas A&M Over 64.5

Notre Dame - Purdue Over 60

Texas El Paso - Texas Under 63

Arizona - Oregon St Under 44.5


SF Giants

 

[MrUnlucky]

Football Jesus Bonus Play anyone?

Paid plays (even if they went off already)?

 

[rustygator]

vegas runner - 2 big plays - akron and purdue . both triple dime plays and games of the week. free pick on arkansas st

 

[rustygator]

vegas runner - added kentucky under 53 - double dime bet

 

[kbuschrulz]

snitch - MIAMI OVER AND OHIO ST

ONLY 2 MORE PLAYS MAX FROM THEM TONIGHT!

UPDATE AROUND 6:30 PM EST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ats lock mlb

4 houston
4 cleveland

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Smart Money

Oregon

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

A-Play underdog goy

va tech

 

[EthanLaw]

Hey guys, hope all is well and I wanted to thank those who purchased the big game today. Although we won, I was very disappointed we did not get the outright today because Fresno completely dominated this contest, with 26 to 16 first down advantage and a 443 to 385 total yard advantage and no turnover....grrr.

Anyway, since I did not see my plays posted here every weekend I'll come in and give you guys a premium play from the card (I do not believe in "free" plays) for the sake of marketing. Well three more to go plus the Syndicate so I wish you all the best of luck. Again...we should have gotten our +$600.


THE NCAA UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH

FRESNO ST (1-2)

at

CINCINNATI (3-0)
Well this is a little bitter sweet since my lone loss last week was on this very Cincinnati team as I had fully expected them to falter at the hands of Oregon State. Well, as the saying goes, “good things always come to those that wait” and that win on the road sets up very nicely for what is without a question the very best play on the board this weekend and the strongest play I have seen to date in the early college football season in terms of line value. The reason for the value is simple; the public sees a team with a losing record, playing on the road, against an undefeated and ranked opponent. However, the public should be in for a surprise on Saturday because once we look inside the numbers we can see that Fresno is no ordinary 1 win team. Indeed, Fresno State (1-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) is a very talented and experienced that returned 7 starters on offense and 9 on defense. They have a new quarterback with lefty Ryan Colburn (6 touchdowns, 6interceptions), who has a strong arm. The backfield is deep with junior Ryan Mathews (107 yards vs. Wisconsin) and Lonyae Miller, and the receivers have the speed to stretch things out. Now I mentioned above how Fresno is not an ordinary team with a losing record in my opinion. They started the season with a 51-0 win against California Davis (which we will give no credence to in this analysis). In week number 2 they traveled to Wisconsin and suffered a frustrating 34-31 overtime loss. Last weekend they traveled to No. 14 ranked Boise State and lost 51-34. So yes “on paper” they are 1-2. Ignoring the week number 1 win, if you go inside the stats we see something very interesting with this Fresno team. Despite the losing result, they outgained Wisconsin by 55 yards (with an incredible 468 yards of total offense; 179 rushing), but the only difference in that game was their “new” quarterback Colburn threw 3 interceptions. Some say that’s terrible. However, let’s put this in perspective guys. This was a new quarterback, playing in his first real college football game, in an environment that is one of the more difficult road venues for opposing college teams. The fact that they outgained Wisconsin and he still threw for four (4) touchdowns should be impressive enough. The next week, they hosted a Boise State team that is among the best in the county. The scoreboard said they lost by 17 points, but the ITS stats show a different story. Against this top ranked opponent, Fresno rolled up 507 yards (a whopping 320 rushing). Indeed, Boise State only outgained Fresno by 27 yards, so the ITS shows that these teams were evenly matched as the only difference was the two fumbles by Fresno. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) is coming home after a very load long road trip to Oregon State, where they won 28-18. For 2009, seven starters return on offense, led by senior quarterback Tony Pike (8 touchdowns, 2 interceptions). He threw for a career-high 362 yards and three touchdowns against Rutgers, taking advantage of a new no-huddle offense installed by head coach Kelly in the off-season. The passing game is loaded with experience, led by senior wide receiver Marshwan Gilyard and junior wide receiver Marcus Barnett. Their other two wins (like Fresno’s) are really not worth mentioning as they destroyed Rutgers in week #1 47-15 then bludgeoned Southeast Missouri State (who?) 70-3.<o></o>

So why Fresno? Well if this game was played last weekend, the line would have been minus 11. A week later, the line is now a whopping 17!!!! WOW. Does anybody else think that is a massive overreaction? Fresno played Boise (one of the best teams in the nation) almost even ITS and they actually outgained Wisconsin. In contrast, Cincinnati has one quality win this season and it was by no means anything that was a blowout ITS. The public is starting to believe that Cincinnati is emerging as the favorite to win the Big East for a second straight season and every game is very important. In contrast, Fresno State arrives, as usual, without any concerns about taking a step up in weight class and should play lose and fast in this non-conference tilt. The reality is that Fresno has without question one of the he most potent offenses in the country after three games, combining an explosive ground game with the low-risk passing of Ryan Colburn which is the right receipt against a powerful offensive home team. In other words, Fresno IS a team that can go toe to toe with the powerful offense of Cincinnati. Fresno will be the FIRST test for this Cincinnati defense as well that entered the season with 10 new starters. I also like the situational set-up here as Fresno played last Friday night, while their host was across the country playing in a late time slot. Take the points but you will not need them today. Fresno wins outright!

Verdict: Fresno State 34, Cincinnati 28
PLAY 2* UNITS (3%) ON FRESNO STATE +17
STRONG OPINION SELECTION (1%) ON FRESNO STATE +$600

 

[kbuschrulz]

watt - yes!

 

[Tailgunner]

Has anyone heard from HOTSHOTGAMBLER or nevadaboys?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hey guys, hope all is well and I wanted to thank those who purchased the big game today. Although we won, I was very disappointed we did not get the outright today because Fresno completely dominated this contest, with 26 to 16 first down advantage and a 443 to 385 total yard advantage and no turnover....grrr.

Anyway, since I did not see my plays posted here every weekend I'll come in and give you guys a premium play from the card (I do not believe in "free" plays) for the sake of marketing. Well three more to go plus the Syndicate so I wish you all the best of luck. Again...we should have gotten our +$600.

Thanks EL and GL!

 

[AC2008]

Football Jesus Bonus Play anyone?

Paid plays (even if they went off already)?

football jesus Bonus Play on the podcast was COWBOYS mon night

 

[SOUTHPHILLYBUDDA6]

Hey guys, hope all is well and I wanted to thank those who purchased the big game today. Although we won, I was very disappointed we did not get the outright today because Fresno completely dominated this contest, with 26 to 16 first down advantage and a 443 to 385 total yard advantage and no turnover....grrr.

Anyway, since I did not see my plays posted here every weekend I'll come in and give you guys a premium play from the card (I do not believe in "free" plays) for the sake of marketing. Well three more to go plus the Syndicate so I wish you all the best of luck. Again...we should have gotten our +$600.

thank you for the winner