THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Arizona (2-0, 0-2 ATS) at Iowa (2-0, 1-0 ATS)
Arizona goes after its fifth straight victory when it travels to Iowa City for a non-conference clash with the Hawkeyes, who have won six in a row.
All four of the Wildcats’ victories during their current streak have come by double digits, including a 19-6 rout of Central Michigan in the season opener Sept. 5 followed by last week’s 34-17 rout of Northern Arizona in a non-lined contest. Arizona outgained both Central Michigan and Northern Arizona by an average of nearly 300 yards per game, including an average rushing edge of 305.5 to 70.5.
After barely squeaking past Division I-AA Northern Iowa 17-16 in its opener, Iowa throttled rival Iowa State 35-3 last week, easily cashing as a 6½-point road chalk. During the Hawkeyes’ six-game winning streak, they’ve had three double-digit blowouts and three other wins by a total of seven points, and they’ve cashed in three straight lined games. QB Richard Stanzi is off to a fine start, completing 58.8 percent of his passes for 439 yards with five TDs and two INTs.
These teams last met in 1998 in Arizona, with the Wildcats rolling to a 35-11 victory as an 11½-point home favorite.
Arizona, which failed to cover in its first lined game of the season against Central Michigan (15-point favorite), is in ATS funks of 1-4 overall, 1-4 on the road, 1-4-1 against the Big Ten, 1-6 in road-openers and 2-5 in non-conference play, but the Wildcats have cashed in 14 of thier last 22 as an underdog (6-1 ATS last seven as a pup).
The Hawkeyes are on pointspread upticks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 5-1 as a favorite, 9-2 when laying 3½ to 10 points at home and 5-0 against teams with a winning record, but they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six against the Pac-10, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite 0-3-1 ATS in their last four the week after beating Iowa State.
For Arizona, the “under” is on runs of 3-0 overall, 3-1 in September and 19-7 when playing on grass, and Iowa carries “under” streaks of 18-7-1 overall, 13-3 in non-conference action, 12-5 as a favorite and 16-5 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA and UNDER
(18) Utah (2-0, 0-2 ATS) at Oregon (1-1, 0-2 ATS)
Utah takes the nation’s longest winning streak to Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., for a non-conference battle with the Ducks.
The Utes held off San Jose State 24-14 last Saturday for their 16th consecutive victory, but for the second time this year, they failed to cover the number, coming up short as a 13½-point road favorite. Utah piled up 499 yards of total offense and outrushed the Spartans 251-22, but two fumbles kept the Utes from adding to their point total.
Oregon needed two defensive touchdowns and a missed two-point conversion in the final seconds by Purdue to hold off the Boilermakers 38-36 last week, coming up way short as a 13-point home favorite. The Ducks, who lost 19-8 at Boise State in their opener, were outgained 451-356 and are averaging just 254 total yards through two games while allowing 406 ypg.
Utah upset Oregon 17-13 as a 3½-point home underdog in the most recent meeting in 2003, and the teams have split six meetings since 1991, with the Utes going 4-2 ATS, all as an underdog.
In addition to winning 16 in a row overall, the Utes are on pointspread tears of 25-11-1 in non-conference play, 36-15-2 after a SU win, 7-2 when playing on artificial turf, 25-5-1 as an underdog, 18-5 as a road pup and 13-3-1 when catching between 3½ and 10 points. On the downside, Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Pac-10 and 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven in September.
Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games, its last five in September and its last five in non-conference action, and the Ducks have also failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 as a home favorite of 3½ to 10 points.
Both squads carry a bunch of “over” trends. For Utah, the over is on runs of 11-3-1 overall, 6-2 on the road, 4-1-1 in September and 8-1-1 in non-conference play, while Oregon is on “over” stretches of 5-0-1 at home, 5-2-1 versus non-Pac-10 foes, 17-5-2 in September and 7-1-2 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER
(3) USC (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Washington (1-1 SU and ATS)
A week after going to Ohio State and pulling out a last-minute victory, USC hits the road again, traveling to Seattle for meeting with Washington in the Pac-10 opener for both squads.
True freshman quarterback Matt Barkley led USC on an 86-yard drive late in the fourth quarter at Ohio State last week, with RB Stafon Johnson scoring on a 2-yard TD run with 1:05 remaining to steal an 18-15 victory. The Trojans failed to cover as a seven-point road favorite, but still won their 12th straight game thanks in large part to a defense that held the Buckeyes to just 265 yards (88 rushing).
Barkley suffered a shoulder injury against Ohio State and is expected to sit out today, leaving the QB duties in the hands of sophomore Aaron Corp.
Washington snapped a 15-game losing skid with last Saturday’s 42-23 rout of Idaho, but the Huskies came up just short of covering as a 20-point home favorite when they allowed a meaningless touchdown with 13 seconds left. QB Jake Locker, who missed most of last season with an injury, went 17-for-25 for 253 yards with three TDs and no INTs against Idaho, and the junior has already passed for 574 yards with five TDs and one INT in two games.
This game pits new Huskies coach Steve Sarkisian against his former mentor, USC coach Pete Carroll, under whom Sarkisian served as offensive coordinator before getting the Washington job. With Sarkisian calling the shots last year, the Trojans steamrolled Washington 56-0, covering as a massive 45½-point home favorite. USC had a 485-184 edge in total offense and never let the Huskies to get farther than the USC 45-yard line.
The Trojans have won seven in a row in this rivalry, all as a favorite, but prior to last season, Washington had cashed in three straight meetings (2-0 ATS at home), all as a double-digit underdog. The host is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.
USC is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after a non-cover, but otherwise it is in ATS slumps of 0-4 on the road (all as a favorite), 1-4 in Pac-10 action, 1-4 in conference road games (all last season), 1-4 as a double-digit road chalk and 2-5 on artificial turf. Similarly, despite covering as a 17½-point underdog in a Week 1 home loss to LSU, the Huskies are in ATS funks 26-55-2 overall, 15-36-2 at home, 22-53-2 in Pac-10 action, 4-10-1 after a SU win, 1-8 as an underdog and 1-5 as a home pup.
The Trojans are on “under” streaks of 18-7-1 overall, 21-5-1 in Pac-10 play, 5-1 in September and 22-9-1 as a favorite. On the flip side, the over is on runs of 10-3 at home, 5-0 in September and 12-5 on artificial turf. Finally, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC
Kansas State (1-1, 0-1 ATS) at UCLA (2-0 SU and ATS)
UCLA looks to get off to a surprising 3-0 start when it welcomes the Wildcats to the Rose Bowl for a Pac-10 vs. Big 12 showdown.
Legendary coach Bill Snyder is back for his second tour of duty with Kansas State, but the first two games haven’t gone very well, as the Wildcats barely edged Massachusetts 21-17 in a non-lined game then lost at Louisiana Lafayette 17-15 as a 6½-point road favorite a week ago. Despite averaging just 18 ppg, the Wildcats are piling up 392 total yards per contest (210.5 rushing ypg).
UCLA went to Tennessee last week as a 10½-point road underdog and pulled out a 19-15 victory, but lost starting quarterback Kevin Prince to a broken jaw late in the fourth quarter. The Bruins won despite mustering just 186 total yards (85 rushing), but the defense limited the Vols to 208 yards, including 93 passing yards and 2.6 yards per rush, and forced four turnovers. Prince is out for this game and will be replaced by redshirt freshman Richard Brehaut.
K-State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall, 1-4 ATS in its last five in September, 5-16 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games and 1-7 ATS in its last eight when facing teams with a winning record. On the bright side, the Wildcats have covered in five of their last six as a road pup.
The Bruins have cashed in three straight games dating to last year’s regular-season finale against USC, and they’re on further ATS runs of 24-7-1 at the Rose Bowl since early 2004, 23-9-1 in September, 5-1 in non-conference play, 12-4 as a home favorite and 5-2 as a double-digit chalk.
Kansas State is on “over” streaks of 40-17 overall, 19-7 on the highway, 20-7 as an underdog, 13-3 as a road pup, 22-5 after a SU loss and 4-1 in September. Conversely, UCLA carries “under” trends of 5-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 4-1 in September, but the over is 7-1 in the Bruins’ last eight against Big 12 opponents, 7-2 in their last nine in September and 4-1 in their last five non-league contests.
This is the first meeting between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA
(19) Nebraska (2-0 SU and ATS) at (13) Virginia Tech (1-1 SU and ATS)
On the heels of two impressive home victories, Nebraska hits the highway for the first time in 2009 when it pays a visit to Blacksburg, Va., looking for a little payback against the Hokies.
The Cornhuskers throttled both Florida Atlantic (49-3) and Arkansas State (38-9) the last two weeks, covering easily as a 20-plus-point favorite in both games. Nebraska, which has won six in a row (5-1 ATS) since last November, is averaging 492.5 yards per game (197.5 rushing) and allowing 319 ypg (136.5 rushing). Also, QB Zac Lee is completing 73.7 percent of his passes for 554 yards with six TD passes against just one INT.
Virginia Tech bounced back from a season-opening 34-24 loss to Alabama in Atlanta with last week’s 52-10 rout of Marshall, easily cashing as a 19½-point home favorite. After getting outgained by 343 yards against Alabama (498-155), the Hokies finished with a 605-252 total yardage edge against Marshall.
The Hokies went to Lincoln, Neb., last September and built a 28-10 second-half lead en route to a 35-30 victory as a seven-point road underdog. The Hokies rushed for 206 yards and held Nebraska to 55 yards on the ground.
Although the Cornhuskers have covered in five of six overall and four of five against non-conference opponents, they’re also in pointspread slumps of 4-11 after a SU win, 2-7 as a road ‘dog and 1-5 when catching between 3½ and 10 points as a visitor. The Hokies have covered in five straight against winning teams, but they’re 3-9 ATS in their past 12 non-conference contests, 1-6 ATS in their last seven at home against non-ACC opponents and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 September outings.
The under is on runs of 5-1 for Nebraska in non-conference play, 5-1 for Nebraska in September, 7-2 for Nebraska when playing on grass, 13-4 for Virginia Tech at home and 8-3 for Va-Tech on grass. However, last year’s matchup in Lincoln easily cleared the 47½-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tennessee (1-1 SU and ATS) at (1) Florida (2-0, 1-0 ATS)
Tennessee takes the field in Gainesville today as the biggest underdog in school history when it matches up against Tim Tebow and archrival Florida in the SEC debut for both squads.
The Volunteers’ defense held UCLA to just 186 total yards, but the offense produced just 208 and one touchdown and had four turnovers in last Saturday’s 19-15 loss to the Bruins as a 10½-point home favorite. The Vols, who opened the Lane Kiffin era with a 63-7 rout of Western Kentucky, had a three-game SU and ATS winning streak halted by UCLA. Through two games, Tennessee’s defense is yielding 13 points and 134.5 total yards per game (59.5 rushing ypg).
Florida followed up a 62-3 thumping of Charleston Southern with last week’s 56-6 beat-down of Troy, covering as a 36½-point home favorite. The defending national champions have won 12 games in a row, all by double digits, and they’re 10-0 ATS in lined action during the winning streak. In crushing their first two opponents of 2009, the Gators have averaged 643.5 yards per game (313.5 passing, 330 rushing) and allowed 231 yards per game (147 passing, 84 rushing). Also, Tebow is completing 64.1 percent of his passes for 425 yards and five TDs while adding 72 rushing yards and two scores.
Florida has won four in a row in this rivalry and is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes. After barely edging the Volunteers by five points (16-7) and one point (21-20) in 2005 and 2006, the Gators have embarrassed Tennessee the last two years, rolling 59-20 as a seven-point home favorite in 2007 and 30-6 as a seven-point road chalk last year. Florida has cashed in five of seven against the Vols in The Swamp.
Tennessee is on ATS runs of 5-2 in SEC action, 4-1-1 as a road underdog and 5-0 as a double-digit road pup. Meanwhile, in addition to cashing in 10 straight games, the Gators are on pointspread rolls of 22-6 overall, 7-0 at home, 20-6 as a favorite, 6-0 as a double-digit chalk , 9-2 as a double-digit home favorite, 10-1 when facing SEC rivals and 11-3-1 in SEC openers since 1994.
The Vols sport nothing but “under” trends, including 17-4-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 7-0 as an underdog, 11-1-1 versus winning teams and 21-8-2 in SEC contests. On the flip side, the over for Florida is on streaks of 20-8 overall, 5-1 at home, 5-0 as a double-digit favorite and 5-1 in conference play. Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last seven Florida-Tennessee tussles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER
(8) California (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at Minnesota (2-0, 1-1 ATS)
California looks to snap a four-game road losing streak when it invades the new TCF Bank Stadium for a non-conference clash with the Golden Gophers, who are trying to start 3-0 for the second straight season.
The Golden Bears cruised to season-opening home victories over Maryland (52-13 as a 21-point favorite) and Eastern Washington (59-7 in a non-lined game), and they’ve now won five in a row dating to last season (4-1 ATS). However, Cal has lost four in a row and eight of nine on the highway, with the lone victory being a 66-3 rout of lowly Washington State in their road opener last season.
QB Kevin Riley (446 passing yards, 5 TDs and no INTs) and RB Jahvid Best (281 rushing yards, 10.4 ypc, 3 TDs; 42 receiving yards, 1 TD) are off to strong starts for Cal, and the defense is yielding just 10 points and 269 yards per game (75 rushing ypg).
The Golden Gophers ended last year on a five-game losing skid, but they’ve come out strong in 2009, outlasting Syracuse 23-20 in overtime as a seven-point road chalk, then rallying to beat Air Force 20-13 as a three-point favorite last week as they opened their new on-campus stadium. Against Air Force, Minnesota rallied from a 10-3 fourth-quarter deficit and scored the winning touchdown on a 51-yard fumble return.
These teams last met in 2006, with Cal hammering the Gophers 42-17 as an 8½-point home favorite. In fact, the Bears have won five straight games against Big Ten opponents (4-1 ATS) by an average of 16 ppg.
Cal has failed to cover in six of its last eight games prior to its Pac-10 opener and is in further ATS slumps of 2-7 on the road, 1-7 as a road chalk and 2-16 as a double-digit favorite. However, the Bears are on positive pointspread runs of 11-4 overall, 5-1 in September and 5-1 as a favorite overall.
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog, but the Gophers have cashed in five of six in September, six of eight as an underdog and five straight when catching double digits.
For Cal, the over is on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-1 against the Big Ten and 9-3 in non-conference action. The over is also 9-3 in Minnesota’s last 12 non-Big Ten games and 6-1 in its last seven as a pup, but the Gophers have stayed low in seven of 10 overall and five of six at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Tulsa (2-0 SU and ATS) at (12) Oklahoma (1-1, 0-1 ATS)
After a pair of blowout road wins over inferior competition to kickoff the season, Tulsa hits the highway for the third week in a row, this time making the short instate trek to Norman for meeting with the 12th-ranked Sooners.
The Golden Hurricane destroyed Tulane 37-13 as a 14-point road chalk on Sept. 4, then traveled to New Mexico last Saturday and lambasted the Lobos 44-10 as a 17-point favorite. Tulsa has won and covered three in a row, including a 45-13 International Bowl win over Ball State in January. This year, the Hurricane are averaging 450.5 ypg (176 rushing ypg) and allowing 267.5 ypg (47 rushing ypg).
Oklahoma bounced back from a shocking 14-13 loss to BYU as a 22½-point favorite in Dallas with a 64-0 rout of Idaho State in a non-lined home game. After getting outgained 357-265 in the loss to BYU, the Sooners – with QB Sam Bradford out with a shoulder injury – rolled up 564 total yards (278 rushing), while the defense held Idaho State to 44 total net yards (minus-22 rushing). Landry Jones, subbing for Bradford, went 18-for-32 for 286 yards with three TDs and one INT.
The Sooners have won all four meetings with Tulsa this decade (2-1-1 ATS), all under coach Bob Stoops, and those victories have come by the combined score of 188-36, including a pair of shutouts in 2001 and 2002. In the most recent battle in 2007 at Tulsa, Oklahoma cruised 62-21 as a 23-point road chalk. The Sooners are 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.
The Golden Hurricane, who started out 10-0 last season, are on ATS runs of 11-5 overall, 5-1 outside of Conference USA, 4-0 in September and 5-0 as a road ‘dog of more than 10 points. However, they’re 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight against Big 12 opponents and 1-4 ATS in their last five as an underdog of any price.
Despite the upset loss to BYU, Oklahoma is still on pointspread surges of 6-2 overall in lined games, 9-4 in non-conference action, 9-2 in September, 6-1 as a favorite and 8-2 as a double-digit favorite.
The under is 4-0 in Tulsa’s last four games and 4-1 in its last five as visiting ‘dog, but OU carries “over” trends of 12-3 overall, 10-3 in non-league contests and 8-2 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA
Florida State (1-1, 0-1 ATS) at (7) BYU (2-0 SU and ATS)
Boasting its highest ranking since the end of the 1996 season, BYU goes after its 19th consecutive win at LaVell Edwards Stadium as it hosts Bobby Bowden and Florida State.
The Seminoles barely avoided one of their worst losses in decades last week, scoring 12 points in the final 35 seconds to turn a 9-7 loss to Division I-AA Jacksonville State into a misleading 19-9 victory in a non-lined home game. Florida State, which suffered a 38-34 last-second home loss to Miami, Fla., in its season opener, gained 400 yards against Jacksonville State, but lost three fumbles and had just one touchdown until Ty Jones scored on a 1-yard run with 35 seconds to play. The Seminoles then added a 33-yard fumble recovery for a score to pad their margin of victory.
A week after shocking second-ranked Oklahoma 14-13 as a 22½-point underdog in Dallas, BYU came back last week and displayed no signs of a letdown, pummeling Tulane 54-3 and easily covering as an 18½-point road favorite. The Cougars led just 3-0 after the first quarter and 6-0 at the midway point of the second before exploding, and they finished with 527 yards of offense (206 rushing) and held Tulane to just 150 (25 rushing on 24 carries).
BYU quarterback Max Hall is making an early run at the Heisman Trophy, as he’s completed 71.4 percent of his throws for 638 yards, four TDs and three INTs. Last week versus Tulane, he went 24-for-32 for 309 yards, two TDs and one INT.
These teams have played twice since 1991 – both in Provo, Utah – and Florida State scored easy road wins both times (44-28 as a 15-point chalk in 1991; 29-3 as a 27½-point favorite in 2000).
The Seminoles are on ATS runs of 7-3-2 as an underdog (6-2-2 as a road pup), 5-1-1 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points and 6-1-1 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Cougars’ 2-0 ATS start this season follows a 1-7 ATS nosedive that closed out the 2008 campaign. BYU has cashed in four straight in September, but although it has won 18 consecutive home games, it failed to cover in its final three at LaVell Edwards Stadium last year (all as a 20-plus-point favorite).
Florida State has topped the total in four straight non-league games, four straight as an underdog and six of seven as a road pup. The over is also 5-2 in BYU’s last seven overall, but the Cougars have stayed low in eight of 11 in Provo and four of five against teams from the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(23) Georgia (1-1, 0-2 ATS) at Arkansas (1-0, 0-0 ATS)
The Bulldogs will try to make it five in a row over Arkansas when they travel to Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark., for this SEC showdown.
After opening the season with a 24-10 loss at Oklahoma State as a 5½-point underdog, Mark Richt’s Bulldogs avoided an 0-2 start with a 41-37 victory over South Carolina on Saturday, coming up short as a seven-point favorite in what all experts thought would be a defensive struggle. Georgia’s defense gave up 427 yards of offense on Saturday but held on the final play of the game to outlast South Carolina. QB Joe Cox was 17-of-24 for 201 yards, two TDs and an INT.
Arkansas crushed Missouri State 49-10 in a non-lined contest back on Sept. 5, getting 447 passing yards, including 309 yards and a TD from Michigan transfer Ryan Mallet. Coach Bobby Petrino’s squad was idle last weekend after putting up 591 yards of total offense against Missouri State, its highest total in two years.
Georgia hasn’t lost to Arkansas since 1993 and the Bulldogs are 8-1 SU (5-4 ATS) against the Razorbacks dating to 1987. They’ve also won three in a row in Fayetteville where the Razorbacks have lost eight of their last 10 to ranked SEC squads.
The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a road pup and 4-2 ATS in their last six as a ‘dog anywhere, but they are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four SEC contests. Arkansas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven overall, but otherwise is on ATS slides of 2-9 in September and 1-4 coming off a SU victory.
Georgia has stayed under the number is 24 of 33 September games, but it is on “over” streaks of 4-1 in SEC play and 5-1 as an underdog. It’s been mostly “overs” for Arkansas, including 9-4 at home, 7-3 in SEC action, 7-3 with conference games and 8-0 in September. Finally, the “under” is 4-1 in the last five series clashes between these two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA
Texas Tech (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at (2) Texas (2-0, 0-2 ATS)
Texas Tech heads to Texas Memorial Stadium to face the Longhorns in not only the Big 12 opener for both sides, but a rematch of arguably the best college football game of 2008.
Last year, Texas scored a touchdown with 1:29 left to take a 33-32 lead, only to see the defense allow QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree hook up for the college football play of the year on a 28-yard TD pass with one second left to give Texas Tech a 39-33 win and outright upset as 3½-point home ‘dogs. The loss kept the Longhorns out of the Big 12 title game and eventually out of the BCS championship game.
Tech’s victory last year snapped a five-game SU winning streak in this rivalry for the Longhorns (3-2 ATS). The home team is on a four-game ATS run in this series, with the ‘dog cashing in five of the last seven meetings.
Texas Tech has opened the season with two easy victories, beating North Dakota 38-13 in an unlined season opener, then crushing Rice 55-10 as a 27-point favorite last weekend. QB Taylor Potts has picked up where the record-setting Harrell left off, throwing for 861 yards, nine TDs and three INTs.
The Longhorns destroyed the Louisiana-Monroe 59-20 in their opener, failing to cover as 41½-point favorites. Last week they went to Wyoming and grabbed a 41-10 victory, but again came up short as a whopping 31½-point road chalk. QB Colt McCoy, who threw for 294 yards and two TDs against the Red Raiders a year ago, has thrown for 654 yards, five TDs and two INTs in the first two games
Texas Tech is 5-2-1 ATS in September, but otherwise on negative ATS runs of 0-4 as a road underdog, 0-5 on grass and 3-8-1 ATS following a spread-cover. Texas has had trouble covering a number lately, going 2-6 ATS in its last eight overall and 1-4 ATS in its last five at home (all as a favorite).
The Red Raiders are riding several “over” streaks, including 7-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 27-8 after an ATS win and 5-0 against teams with a winning record. The Longhorns have topped the total in eight of their last 11 conference games, but they are on “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 after a straight-up win and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. Finally, in this rivalry, the “over” is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
(17) Cincinnati (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at Oregon State (2-0, 0-1 ATS)
The high-scoring Bearcats take their show on the road for a non-conference matchup with Oregon State at Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Ore.
Cincinnati has come out of the gate with a pair of dominating efforts, crushing Big East rival Rutgers 47-15 as a 4½-point road ‘dog, then returning home to stomp Southeast Missouri State 70-3 in a non-lined outing, scoring the third-most points in school history.
Bearcats’ QB Tony Pike has completed 77.2 percent of his throws this season for 591 yards, six TDs and just one INT. Coach Brian Kelly has also got a game-breaker at WR in Mardy Gilyard who has 14 catches for 200 yards and three TDs, plus a punt return for a score.
After opening with an easy 34-7 win over Portland State in an non-lined contest, Oregon State went to Las Vegas a week ago and edged UNLV 23-21, falling short as a 6½-point chalk. Mike Riley’s offense drove the ball down the field 64 yards in 12 plays with two minutes left to set up the game-winning 33-yard field goal with seven seconds left.
RB Jacquizz Rodgers has rushed for 269 yards and four TDs this season after finishing second in the Pac-10 last season with 1,253 yards on the ground. The Beavers have won 26 straight non-conference home games since 1996 and they have beaten 15 of the past 17 ranked visitors to come in to Reser Stadium (including a stunning win over No. 1 USC last year).
Back in 2007, Oregon State committed seven turnovers in a 34-3 loss to the Bearcats, with Cincinnati cashing as a three-point home ‘dog.
The Bearcats are on ATS runs of 9-2 in September games, 8-3-1 on the road against a team with a winning home mark and 14-6-1 against teams with a winning record. However, Cincy is just 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 as a road chalk and 2-5 ATS in its last seven in non-conference action. Oregon State struggles in September at just 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22, but otherwise the Beavers are on pointspread streaks of 16-5 overall, 40-19-1 at home, 5-1 as an underdog and 9-2 after a SU victory.
Cincinnati has topped the total in five of seven as a favorite, eight of 11 as a road chalk, seven of eight in September and five straight on the road. On the flip side, Oregon State is on “under” runs of 5-2 overall, 8-3 in September, 9-3 in non-conference action and 5-2 as a home pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (88-59) at Texas (80-66)
The Angels are looking to hand the Rangers their sixth straight loss and move 8½ games ahead in the A.L. West standings when they send right-hander Jered Weaver (15-6, 3.71 ERA) to the mound at Rangers Ballpark opposite Texas righty Scott Feldman (16-5, 3.65).
Los Angeles blanked the Rangers 2-0 on Friday, with Vladimir Guerrero providing the offense and Scott Kazmir and three relievers combining for the shutout. The Angels remain just 2-5 in Texas this season, but they are on positive streaks of 6-2 against A.L. West teams, 12-5 in the second game of a series and 10-2 on Saturdays.
Friday’s shutout was the fourth time in this five-game losing streak the Rangers have failed to plate a run and they’ve been outscored 26-1 during the skid. Texas is 17-8 at home against teams with winning records, but otherwise, this team is fading fast, on negative streaks of 3-12 on Saturdays, 1-4 as a favorite, 0-5 at home and 0-5 against the A.L. West.
The Angels have lost three of Weaver’s last five starts, including Monday in New York when he allowed three runs in 7 1/3 innings of a 5-3 loss to the Yankees. Los Angeles has split his four starts against the Rangers this season, losing both in Texas and winning both in California. In Arlington, he’s allowed 10 runs on 14 hits in 13 1/3 innings. With Weaver on the hill, the Angels are on positive runs of 16-6 overall, 8-3 on the road, 20-8 in the second game of a series and 10-4 when he gets four days between starts.
The Rangers have won seven of Feldman’s last nine outings, but they lost his Monday start at home against the A’s as he gave up six runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 9-0 loss. They have won all three of his outings against the Angels this season, including two in Texas where he’s given up three runs on 10 hits over 12 innings. Texas is on a host of positive streaks when Feldman toes the rubber, including 20-8 overall and 8-3 in the second game of a series, but just 1-4 in his last five at home.
Los Angeles is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 19-7-1 overall, 5-0-1 against the A.L. West, 9-1 on the road, 5-1 on Saturdays, 3-1-1 in Weaver’s last five starts overall and 19-6-3 when he starts the second game of a series. It’s also been a host of “unders” for Texas, including 37-14-4 at home, 78-34-6 overall, 18-6-2 on Saturdays, 26-9-3 at home against righties, 11-1 when Feldman starts on a Saturday, 10-3-1 when he starts at home and 12-4 when he pitches on Saturdays.
Finally, this series has stayed under the total in seven of 10 outings with Weaver on the hill and five of the last six when he pitches in Texas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
