Guaranteed Pick: Hollywood Sports
Game: USC at Washington Huskies Sep 19 2009 3:30PM
Prediction: Washington Huskies
Reason: At 3:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies plus the points over the USC Trojans. The quicker a bettor forgets that this Washington club was 0-12 (1-11 ATS) last season, the better off they will be. This team returns eight offensive starters and ten defensive starters to a new coaching staff that is dynamite. The head coach, Steve Sarkisian, was previously the offensive coordinator at USC and he brought along the Trojans' defensive coordinator, Nick Holt, to run the Huskies defense. They are getting much more out of these players already. Washington also benefits with the return of a now-healthy quarterback in Jake Locker who is a dual-threat runner/passer. Last season, Locker rushed for almost 100 yards per game while he was healthy. This season, Locker is completing over 60% of his passes. This Washington team only lost to LSU earlier in the season by a 31-23 score. Then last week, they throttled Idaho 42-23. Playing at home and getting almost three touchdowns, this Huskies team is dangerous and much improved over last season. Now the Huskies will have the benefit of the insider knowledge Sarkisian and Holt will have about their opponents in the Trojans. USC is coming off their big 18-15 win last week in Columbus against Ohio State -- and it is always dangerous for a college team to stay on the road for two weeks in a row. USC lost to Oregon State last season was the week after their victory over the Buckeyes. This game has letdown written all over it as the USC players can't help but take notice that this Washington club was winless last season. USC always seems to struggle a few times in Pac-10 play -- remember their loss to Stanford two seasons ago. This situation is compounded by the fact that freshman starting QB Matt Barkley has a bruised throwing shoulder. If he plays, will he be effective? If he does not play, then the Trojans will turn to redshirt freshman Aaron Corp to play in his first game. How will he react in his first game on the road? Has he fully recovered from his leg injury? Of course, Sarkisian will be very familiar with Corp's strengths and weaknesses since he oversaw his development last season as the offensive coordinator. Finally, there is a strong 83% ATS system (25-5 since 1992) that looks to play underdogs in the 10.5-21 point range if that team averaged 14 or less points per game last season but return with an experienced quarterback and the game is being played in the first month of the season. Overall, there are a bunch of warning signs here for USC and head coach Pete Carroll. Despite returning only three defensive starters, USC still has the significant talent advantage. Given that, expect a very conservative game plan from Carroll -- running the football and not putting their quarterbacks in a position to make mistakes. Carroll will be extra-cautious matching wits against his former coordinators. The result will likely be a Trojan victory -- but one within the overinflated line that has USC giving 20 or so points on the road. 25 Star PAC-10 Game of the Month on the Washington Huskies plus the points over the USC Trojans. Best of luck for us -- Frank.