Sam Clayton
25 DIME - ANGELS
Absolutely love the value we're getting with the Halos Saturday morning because Los Angeles is not going to lose this game. Those that have been following me know that I've been preaching all season long about the motivation (or lack thereof) that arises after a one-run loss. When great teams come oh so close and drop ball games by one run, the fire in the belly stirs up and the majority of the time, they come out firing and win the ensuing game running away. Now, I'm not a forecasting a blowout and I'm not suggesting you play the runline, but I will say that chances are extremely good that the second best team in baseball is going to come out victorious tomorrow afternoon across the border.
Aside from being the best road team (37-25) in the American League, the Angels are an offensive juggernaut. Los Angeles boasts the Majors' highest batting average (.290), and they lead the bigs in hits, runs scored and runs batted in. Los Angeles also ranks second in on-base percentage and fifth in slugging. This isn't exactly the type of offense that Scott Richmond (6-6, 4.01), a middle-aged, inexperienced starter is going to be able to handle. Richmond is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in two starts since the All-Star break and the Blue Jays have lost five of his last seven starts. Ervin Santana gets the call for the Halos and while his season statistics aren't the greatest as a whole, he's finally beginning to show flashes of brilliance that the Angels' organization has expected all along. Unlike Richmond, Santana has been a boss lately, posting a 3-0 mark with a 3.00 ERA his last three outings and he's won five of his last six decisions. More importantly though, his fastball is gaining speed and life, his breaking ball looks sharp and he's going deeper into games.
Important intangibles always pull me in and I've found yet another one for today: the Angels have lost three consecutive games only three times this season and it hasn't happened since before the All-Star break back on June 20-22. Los Angeles lost 11-3 to the Tribe on Thursday and as mentioned earlier, they dropped a heartbreaker last night 5-4 to the Jays. I'm extremely confident that Mike Scoscia pulls out all the stops and that the Angels come out determined and hungry today. These two teams are going in two completely different directions what with the Angels leading the AL West and Toronto 20 games behind the Yanks out east. L.A. has won 7 of 10 games while the Jays have lost 7 of 10. And with Vegas continuing to discredit Santana and setting a very low line, I'm laying the chalk. Play the Halos.