SMOOTH TALK SPORTS
NFLx
DETROIT VS. ATLANTA
Atlanta enters this game coming off a season that surprised many, including myself, while the Lions – well we know what happened to them! The Falcons pretty much kept their unit in tact while making some moves in the offseason to try and firm up a defense that proved vulnerable at times. Meanwhile, Coach Schwartz makes his debut for Detroit along with highly touted QB Stafford. Making things interesting for Stafford is a Dante Culpepper who showed up to camp 30 pounds lighter and in terrific shape suggesting he wants a shot at the starting role. Schwartz has made it clear that nobody is safe and all must earn their starting spots. This creates urgency for all players and they should clearly be the more motivated team as a result. Additionally, in an attempt to reverse their fortunes from a year ago Schwartz has made it clear that this team is going show up and to play to win. It is worth noting the Falcons are just 2-4 in their L6 preseason road openers while the Lions are 5-1 in their L6 preseason home openers.
PREDICTION: DETROIT 20 ATLANTA 16
(DETROIT -3)
BUFFALO VS. CHICAGO
The Bills look to rebound at home off last week’s loss in the Hall of Fame opener. Edwards and the starting unit will be without the services of T.O. and are only expected to see limited action once again. Meanwhile, tonight is the debut of Bears QB Jay Cutler who was acquired from Denver in the controversial trade in April. The Bears believe they are a legitimate contender but need Cutler to build the chemistry with his starting unit and perhaps tonight they will give him a few more looks than normal for an opening game as a result. Dick Jauron remains on the hot seat but as he proved last week he simply lacks the talent and depth to be a contender. Jauron is just 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS in his L10 at home. Meanwhile, the Bears are an impressive 8-2 in their L10 preseason road openers and 6-1 L7 under Coach Smith as a dog of 3 or more.
PREDICTION: BEARS 27 BUFFALO 13
(BEARS +3 AND OVER 32)
GREEN BAY VS. CLEVELAND
Dom Capers makes his debut tonight as the Packers new defensive coordinator. Capers will attempt to implement a 3-4 scheme to improve against the run. He is relying on the highly touted first round draft pick, Clay Matthews, out of USC to help make it happen. Meanwhile, Eric Mangini makes his debut as the Browns new head coach. Mangini will be taking a hard look at QBs Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. Anderson had a stellar rookie campaign in 2007 only to suffer the classic sophomore jinx last year. This has opened the door up for Quinn and has created a very competitive campaign for the starting role. It is worth noting that Green Bay has really struggled during the preseason against AFC opponents going 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in their L12.
PREDICTION: CLEVELAND 23 GREEN BAY 20
(CLEVELAND +3 AND OVER 35)
KANSAS CITY VS. HOUSTON
QB Matt Cassel makes his debut tonight for the Chiefs. Although his playing time will be limited the question that remains is whether, or not, Cassel was as good as his numbers indicated last year when he filled in for the injured Tom Brady or if he is simply a product of a great system. The Chiefs also have a new head coach in Todd Haley and Haley is left with challenge of turning around a program that has gone 6-26 over the last 2 years. The Chiefs are relying heavily of Cassel but also made some key moves on defense when they acquired veteran linebacker Vrabel and rookie end Tyson Jackson out of LSU. Meanwhile, Houston kept their offensive unit in tact so should be effective. Defensively, they made some offseason moves to make the unit deeper and more consistent. The Texans enjoy a huge edge in their QB rotation and should be effective in moving the ball against a Chiefs defense that is still trying to find itself.
PREDICTION: HOUSTON 27 KANSAS CITY 10
(HOUSTON +2)
TENNESSEE VS. TAMPA BAY
Raheem Morris makes his head coaching debut for Tampa Bay and at just 33 years old is currently the youngest coach in the league. Morris wasted no time in the offseason beefing up his offense with the acquisitions of RB Derrick Ward and TE Winslow. One of Morris’ biggest challenges will be finding a QB that can get the job done. As a result, expect Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich to get a lot of reps and to give coach Morris a good look. Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off an impressive opening week win over the Bills in the Hall of Fame game. History has shown that when a team does well in a preseason game complacency may set in the next time out, therefore, creating opportunity or value in their opponent. With their first win under their belts is Tampa that will be the hungrier team. It is worth noting that Tampa Bay is a perfect 6-0 SU in their L6 preseason openers while Tennessee is just 1-3 SU and ATS in their L4 home preseason openers.
PREDICTION: TAMPA BAY 19 TENNESSEE 16
(TAMPA BAY +4.5)
SAN DIEGO VS. SEATTLE
Many have the Chargers already labels as the team to beat in the West. However, for the Chargers to have any chance they must stay healthy. Because health is a concern I don’t see coach Turner taking any chances with his key players. He will more than likely stick to a very strict preseason formula with a bigger focus on staying healthy than winning games. Meanwhile, Jim Mora makes his debut as the head coach for the Seahawks. Mora inherits a team that finished a disappointing 4-12 last year. Their lack of success was a direct result of the many injuries they suffered and, at times, was difficult to even field a defensive unit that could compete. The team appears healthy and should be the more motivated team to start the season off with a win. Seattle is 5-0 in their L5 preseason road games while the Chargers are just 2-5 in preseason home openers with Turner at the helm.
PREDICTION: SEATTLE 21 SAN DIEGO 17
(SEATTLE +3)
NFLx
DETROIT VS. ATLANTA
Atlanta enters this game coming off a season that surprised many, including myself, while the Lions – well we know what happened to them! The Falcons pretty much kept their unit in tact while making some moves in the offseason to try and firm up a defense that proved vulnerable at times. Meanwhile, Coach Schwartz makes his debut for Detroit along with highly touted QB Stafford. Making things interesting for Stafford is a Dante Culpepper who showed up to camp 30 pounds lighter and in terrific shape suggesting he wants a shot at the starting role. Schwartz has made it clear that nobody is safe and all must earn their starting spots. This creates urgency for all players and they should clearly be the more motivated team as a result. Additionally, in an attempt to reverse their fortunes from a year ago Schwartz has made it clear that this team is going show up and to play to win. It is worth noting the Falcons are just 2-4 in their L6 preseason road openers while the Lions are 5-1 in their L6 preseason home openers.
PREDICTION: DETROIT 20 ATLANTA 16
(DETROIT -3)
BUFFALO VS. CHICAGO
The Bills look to rebound at home off last week’s loss in the Hall of Fame opener. Edwards and the starting unit will be without the services of T.O. and are only expected to see limited action once again. Meanwhile, tonight is the debut of Bears QB Jay Cutler who was acquired from Denver in the controversial trade in April. The Bears believe they are a legitimate contender but need Cutler to build the chemistry with his starting unit and perhaps tonight they will give him a few more looks than normal for an opening game as a result. Dick Jauron remains on the hot seat but as he proved last week he simply lacks the talent and depth to be a contender. Jauron is just 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS in his L10 at home. Meanwhile, the Bears are an impressive 8-2 in their L10 preseason road openers and 6-1 L7 under Coach Smith as a dog of 3 or more.
PREDICTION: BEARS 27 BUFFALO 13
(BEARS +3 AND OVER 32)
GREEN BAY VS. CLEVELAND
Dom Capers makes his debut tonight as the Packers new defensive coordinator. Capers will attempt to implement a 3-4 scheme to improve against the run. He is relying on the highly touted first round draft pick, Clay Matthews, out of USC to help make it happen. Meanwhile, Eric Mangini makes his debut as the Browns new head coach. Mangini will be taking a hard look at QBs Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. Anderson had a stellar rookie campaign in 2007 only to suffer the classic sophomore jinx last year. This has opened the door up for Quinn and has created a very competitive campaign for the starting role. It is worth noting that Green Bay has really struggled during the preseason against AFC opponents going 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in their L12.
PREDICTION: CLEVELAND 23 GREEN BAY 20
(CLEVELAND +3 AND OVER 35)
KANSAS CITY VS. HOUSTON
QB Matt Cassel makes his debut tonight for the Chiefs. Although his playing time will be limited the question that remains is whether, or not, Cassel was as good as his numbers indicated last year when he filled in for the injured Tom Brady or if he is simply a product of a great system. The Chiefs also have a new head coach in Todd Haley and Haley is left with challenge of turning around a program that has gone 6-26 over the last 2 years. The Chiefs are relying heavily of Cassel but also made some key moves on defense when they acquired veteran linebacker Vrabel and rookie end Tyson Jackson out of LSU. Meanwhile, Houston kept their offensive unit in tact so should be effective. Defensively, they made some offseason moves to make the unit deeper and more consistent. The Texans enjoy a huge edge in their QB rotation and should be effective in moving the ball against a Chiefs defense that is still trying to find itself.
PREDICTION: HOUSTON 27 KANSAS CITY 10
(HOUSTON +2)
TENNESSEE VS. TAMPA BAY
Raheem Morris makes his head coaching debut for Tampa Bay and at just 33 years old is currently the youngest coach in the league. Morris wasted no time in the offseason beefing up his offense with the acquisitions of RB Derrick Ward and TE Winslow. One of Morris’ biggest challenges will be finding a QB that can get the job done. As a result, expect Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich to get a lot of reps and to give coach Morris a good look. Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off an impressive opening week win over the Bills in the Hall of Fame game. History has shown that when a team does well in a preseason game complacency may set in the next time out, therefore, creating opportunity or value in their opponent. With their first win under their belts is Tampa that will be the hungrier team. It is worth noting that Tampa Bay is a perfect 6-0 SU in their L6 preseason openers while Tennessee is just 1-3 SU and ATS in their L4 home preseason openers.
PREDICTION: TAMPA BAY 19 TENNESSEE 16
(TAMPA BAY +4.5)
SAN DIEGO VS. SEATTLE
Many have the Chargers already labels as the team to beat in the West. However, for the Chargers to have any chance they must stay healthy. Because health is a concern I don’t see coach Turner taking any chances with his key players. He will more than likely stick to a very strict preseason formula with a bigger focus on staying healthy than winning games. Meanwhile, Jim Mora makes his debut as the head coach for the Seahawks. Mora inherits a team that finished a disappointing 4-12 last year. Their lack of success was a direct result of the many injuries they suffered and, at times, was difficult to even field a defensive unit that could compete. The team appears healthy and should be the more motivated team to start the season off with a win. Seattle is 5-0 in their L5 preseason road games while the Chargers are just 2-5 in preseason home openers with Turner at the helm.
PREDICTION: SEATTLE 21 SAN DIEGO 17
(SEATTLE +3)
Larry Ness
My No. 1-rated NFLX Week 1 side play is a 20* on the KC Chiefs at 8:00 ET. The Houston Texans travel to KC to open their 2009 preseason with the Chiefs. The Texans have yet to post a winning season since entering the NFL in the 2002 season but are "on the verge," after consecutive 8-8 seasons. As for the Chiefs, a new GM (Scott Pioli), new head coach (Todd Haley) and new starting QB (Matt Cassel) will try and get this franchise "back on track," after a combined 6-26 (.188) record the last two seasons. Houston head coach Gary Kubiak announced that he expects his starters to play for 12-15 snaps during the first quarter on Saturday night. Second-teamers will into play the second and third quarters and his third-teamers will play the rest of the way. With starting QB Matt Schaub so often injured (plus Sage Rosenfels now in Minnesota), expect Shaub's work to be limited in the preseason, as Kubiak tries to get work for QBs Rex Grossman (Bears) and Dan Orlovsky (Lions), who are both trying learn a new system. Grossman of course, has gone from a starter in Super Bowl 41 to fighting for a roster spot, while Orlovsky's "claim to fame" is he started seven (played in 10) of Detroit's 16 losses last year. Both Pioli and Haley have excellent pedigrees. When Bill Belichick accepted the Patriots head coaching position in 2000, Pioli joined him and the two eventually became the first personnel director/head coach tandem in league history to win three Super Bowls during a four-year span (2001–2004). Haley worked under Bill Parcells from 1997-1999 with the Jets (where he met Pioli) and also from 2004-06 in Dallas. He left for Arizona in 2007 to accept the job of OC under Ken Whisenhunt and you just may remember how well the Cards (particularly their passing) did last year. According to Haley, Cassel may play as much as 1 1/2 quarters on Saturday night (he should know!) plus Tyler Thigpen and Brodie Croyle will follow. Thigpen, who played in 14 games last year (attempted over 400 passes),and Brodie Croyle (Alabama), could both be very effective while facing non-starters. This game means little to Kubiak and Houston but my belief is that Haley wants and expects a big effort from his team. Parcells will be proud! No. 1-rated NFLX Week 1 Play 20* KC Chiefs.
My No. 1-rated NFLX Week 1 side play is a 20* on the KC Chiefs at 8:00 ET. The Houston Texans travel to KC to open their 2009 preseason with the Chiefs. The Texans have yet to post a winning season since entering the NFL in the 2002 season but are "on the verge," after consecutive 8-8 seasons. As for the Chiefs, a new GM (Scott Pioli), new head coach (Todd Haley) and new starting QB (Matt Cassel) will try and get this franchise "back on track," after a combined 6-26 (.188) record the last two seasons. Houston head coach Gary Kubiak announced that he expects his starters to play for 12-15 snaps during the first quarter on Saturday night. Second-teamers will into play the second and third quarters and his third-teamers will play the rest of the way. With starting QB Matt Schaub so often injured (plus Sage Rosenfels now in Minnesota), expect Shaub's work to be limited in the preseason, as Kubiak tries to get work for QBs Rex Grossman (Bears) and Dan Orlovsky (Lions), who are both trying learn a new system. Grossman of course, has gone from a starter in Super Bowl 41 to fighting for a roster spot, while Orlovsky's "claim to fame" is he started seven (played in 10) of Detroit's 16 losses last year. Both Pioli and Haley have excellent pedigrees. When Bill Belichick accepted the Patriots head coaching position in 2000, Pioli joined him and the two eventually became the first personnel director/head coach tandem in league history to win three Super Bowls during a four-year span (2001–2004). Haley worked under Bill Parcells from 1997-1999 with the Jets (where he met Pioli) and also from 2004-06 in Dallas. He left for Arizona in 2007 to accept the job of OC under Ken Whisenhunt and you just may remember how well the Cards (particularly their passing) did last year. According to Haley, Cassel may play as much as 1 1/2 quarters on Saturday night (he should know!) plus Tyler Thigpen and Brodie Croyle will follow. Thigpen, who played in 14 games last year (attempted over 400 passes),and Brodie Croyle (Alabama), could both be very effective while facing non-starters. This game means little to Kubiak and Houston but my belief is that Haley wants and expects a big effort from his team. Parcells will be proud! No. 1-rated NFLX Week 1 Play 20* KC Chiefs.
Craig Davis
Saturday's Lineup
50 DIME ---- RANGERS (With Holland and Penny as listed pitchers)
10 DIME ---- SEAHAWKS
TEXAS RANGERS (With Holland and Penny as listed pitchers) --- The stupid Texas bullpen cost me a perfect 3-0 sweep last night and I'm not letting them get away with it. After leading the entire game, the Rangers promptly imploded in the top of the 9th inning, allowing six runs on seven hits (thanks Frankie) and watched a 4-2 lead evaporate to the tune of an 8-4 loss. That's not going to sit well with the Rangers as they get set to battle the Sox again in Arlington. Remember, these two teams are in a heated battle for the Wild Card spot and neither team can afford to drop a game like that, so that's why I believe the Rangers are coming out with revenge on their minds. You just don't go into a place like Texas (where the Rangers are 37-22) and take a win away from the home team like that and expect not to get a battle the next time you step on the field. Texas will bring the heavy artillery tonight.
There's also a huge pitching discrepancy for Boston when comparing last night to tonight. John Lester has proven himself as an ace. The guy is one of the better left-handers in the big leagues and has been pitching quite well as of late. He did his best for 6 innings (11 Ks), but Kevin Millwood was just a little better. In the end, it didn't matter though. Tonight the Red Sox hesitantly trot out Brad Penny and hope to get at least five or six solid innings out of him. I don't see it happening. This overweight righty has really struggled recently, allowing 15 earned runs in his last 17 IP and 21 earned runs in his last 28 IP. What's interesting about Penny is the fact he's pitched 5 times at home in his last seven games, and the two roadies he's had have been some of his worst of the year. In those two contests, Penny allowed 14 hits and 11 earned runs in 11 innings of work. That's right... a 9.00 ERA in his last two road starts... and he's expected to come into a hitter's paradise like Texas and keep them down? Good luck.
For Texas, I really like what I've been seeing from this kid Derek Holland. The young lefty from Ohio doesn't have great stuff yet, but in two of his last three starts he's been as good as any pitcher in baseball. His last start was a complete game, three-hit shutout in Los Angeles. Two games before that he went 8.2 innings allowing just one run in a 7-1 win vs. Seattle. What's most impressive to me is his ability to keep his pitch count down to the point the coaches can keep him in the ball game into the 8th and 9th. After watching last night's bullpen implosion, I think this is the best thing for the Rangers. Holland is still learning and doesn't have a great season ERA (5.04), but you can't judge a young pitcher based on what he did early on... you have to look at what he's done for you lately --- and the Rangers couldn't be more happy than this. Texas has won 9 of their last 11 at home while the Red Sox have dropped eight straight road games when listed as the underdog. By the time you bet this game, the Red Sox will be the dog. Play the Texas Rangers as your top play of the day.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS --- The NFL pre-season games have been tough to predict early on, but I did nail a nice 10-dimer on the Minnesota Vikings last night and I will continue that trend with an easy winner on the Seattle Seahawks.
First things first. These two have hooked up in each of the last three pre-seasons and six of the last seven... and the 'Hawks have covered the last two and four of those six. They've come into these pre-season games primarily as the underdog and tonight is no different as we'll be getting at least 3.5 points... but more likely 4 by the time the game kicks off. I'd suggest that you hold off on placing this wager until later in the afternoon. Don't worry, you'll have plenty of time to make your wager as this game doesn't kick off until 10 pm ET. If you notice, for some reason, that this game is going in the wrong direction, bet it at +3 before it gets to +2.5 (though I don't see that happening).
Seattle will be displaying a lot of new faces, including first round draft pick Arron Curry, a linebacker who is expected to play into the third quarter. He'll be moved from linebacker to defensive end in an attempt to see what type of pass rush he can bring. He might not have a tremendous amount of success early, but when the Chargers start moving in some of their second and third stringers, Curry could have a field day. WR TJ Houshmandzadeh will also make his debut in a Seattle uniform and should play a few series with QB Matt Hasselbeck. For San Diego, we won't see much of Philip Rivers and might not see LaDainian Tomlinson or Antonio Gates, which means a lot more of Darren Sproles and even more of Jacob Hester. This game obviously means more to Seattle and new HC Jim Mora Jr. than it does San Diego and their veteran staff. Seattle not only covers this line, they win the game outright.
Saturday's Lineup
50 DIME ---- RANGERS (With Holland and Penny as listed pitchers)
10 DIME ---- SEAHAWKS
TEXAS RANGERS (With Holland and Penny as listed pitchers) --- The stupid Texas bullpen cost me a perfect 3-0 sweep last night and I'm not letting them get away with it. After leading the entire game, the Rangers promptly imploded in the top of the 9th inning, allowing six runs on seven hits (thanks Frankie) and watched a 4-2 lead evaporate to the tune of an 8-4 loss. That's not going to sit well with the Rangers as they get set to battle the Sox again in Arlington. Remember, these two teams are in a heated battle for the Wild Card spot and neither team can afford to drop a game like that, so that's why I believe the Rangers are coming out with revenge on their minds. You just don't go into a place like Texas (where the Rangers are 37-22) and take a win away from the home team like that and expect not to get a battle the next time you step on the field. Texas will bring the heavy artillery tonight.
There's also a huge pitching discrepancy for Boston when comparing last night to tonight. John Lester has proven himself as an ace. The guy is one of the better left-handers in the big leagues and has been pitching quite well as of late. He did his best for 6 innings (11 Ks), but Kevin Millwood was just a little better. In the end, it didn't matter though. Tonight the Red Sox hesitantly trot out Brad Penny and hope to get at least five or six solid innings out of him. I don't see it happening. This overweight righty has really struggled recently, allowing 15 earned runs in his last 17 IP and 21 earned runs in his last 28 IP. What's interesting about Penny is the fact he's pitched 5 times at home in his last seven games, and the two roadies he's had have been some of his worst of the year. In those two contests, Penny allowed 14 hits and 11 earned runs in 11 innings of work. That's right... a 9.00 ERA in his last two road starts... and he's expected to come into a hitter's paradise like Texas and keep them down? Good luck.
For Texas, I really like what I've been seeing from this kid Derek Holland. The young lefty from Ohio doesn't have great stuff yet, but in two of his last three starts he's been as good as any pitcher in baseball. His last start was a complete game, three-hit shutout in Los Angeles. Two games before that he went 8.2 innings allowing just one run in a 7-1 win vs. Seattle. What's most impressive to me is his ability to keep his pitch count down to the point the coaches can keep him in the ball game into the 8th and 9th. After watching last night's bullpen implosion, I think this is the best thing for the Rangers. Holland is still learning and doesn't have a great season ERA (5.04), but you can't judge a young pitcher based on what he did early on... you have to look at what he's done for you lately --- and the Rangers couldn't be more happy than this. Texas has won 9 of their last 11 at home while the Red Sox have dropped eight straight road games when listed as the underdog. By the time you bet this game, the Red Sox will be the dog. Play the Texas Rangers as your top play of the day.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS --- The NFL pre-season games have been tough to predict early on, but I did nail a nice 10-dimer on the Minnesota Vikings last night and I will continue that trend with an easy winner on the Seattle Seahawks.
First things first. These two have hooked up in each of the last three pre-seasons and six of the last seven... and the 'Hawks have covered the last two and four of those six. They've come into these pre-season games primarily as the underdog and tonight is no different as we'll be getting at least 3.5 points... but more likely 4 by the time the game kicks off. I'd suggest that you hold off on placing this wager until later in the afternoon. Don't worry, you'll have plenty of time to make your wager as this game doesn't kick off until 10 pm ET. If you notice, for some reason, that this game is going in the wrong direction, bet it at +3 before it gets to +2.5 (though I don't see that happening).
Seattle will be displaying a lot of new faces, including first round draft pick Arron Curry, a linebacker who is expected to play into the third quarter. He'll be moved from linebacker to defensive end in an attempt to see what type of pass rush he can bring. He might not have a tremendous amount of success early, but when the Chargers start moving in some of their second and third stringers, Curry could have a field day. WR TJ Houshmandzadeh will also make his debut in a Seattle uniform and should play a few series with QB Matt Hasselbeck. For San Diego, we won't see much of Philip Rivers and might not see LaDainian Tomlinson or Antonio Gates, which means a lot more of Darren Sproles and even more of Jacob Hester. This game obviously means more to Seattle and new HC Jim Mora Jr. than it does San Diego and their veteran staff. Seattle not only covers this line, they win the game outright.
