Craig Davis
Saturday's Lineup
30 DIME ---- TIGERS (With Verlander) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over TWINS (With Perkins or Pavano)
10 DIME ---- PADRES (With Latos) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over METS (With Parnell)
DETROIT TIGERS (with Verlander) -1 1/2 runs over MINNESOTA (with Perkins/Pavano) --- Second verse, same as the first. Whatever cliche you want to use here, it all comes back to the same thing... Justin Verlander, at home, is nearly un-hittable. Yes, I know he's had a few "Comerica outings" in which he wasn't on his game, but for the most part you can count on at least seven innings and around one or two earned runs --- if not zero. It doesn't seem to matter who the opponent is, Verlander just gets the job done and I see no reason why today should be any different.
Verlander's home ERA is a sizzling 1.66 and he has yet to lose a home start in 10 tries (7-0), despite not pitching his best in the last game there vs. Baltimore. However, if you remember, we had the Tigers on the run line in that game and if it weren't for a 5-run first inning, the Orioles would have NEVER been in that game. Verlander completely shut them down the following seven innings and they never even advanced a baserunner past second base. But for whatever reason, he decided not to have his best stuff in the first inning. Either way, he ended the game the way I expect him to start this one... on fire. Those final seven innings did nothing but build confidence for him and it's going to carry over to tonight's game against Minnesota... a game in which he should get plenty of run support.
Glen Perkins is the scheduled starter, though I have seen a few sources mention Carl Pavano (who was acquired yesterday). Perkins, who could actually be demoted to the bullpen if his next start (tonight) isn't up to snuff. His season ERA is basically 6.00 and his last start vs. Detroit is definitely forgettable. He lasted just 5.1 innings, allowing five hits and five earned runs in a 7-3 Twins loss. Perkins now not only has the pressure of facing Detroit on the road again, but now he has to worry about losing his spot in the rotation. Too much pressure for this lefty on this night as the Tigers are starting to play better and should carry the momentum of last night's 10-8 win over to tonight.
SAN DIEGO PADRES (with Latos) -1 1/2 runs over NY Mets (with Parnell) --- This play is quite simple. Though the Padres are one of the worst teams in baseball, they have played the Mets quite well and have taken the first two games of this four-game set. They've hit the ball well and gotten some really good pitching. The funny thing is, in my opinion, they haven't even thrown their best pitcher. I believe their best pitcher is going tonight in the form of Mat Latos. Though virtually an unknown at the beginning of the season, Latos has turned out to be a very solid pitcher and hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his four starts. Since taking a weird loss in his first career game, Latos has won three straight and looks to make it four tonight.
The Mets, in a huge funk right now, turn to Bobby Parnell to try and stop the bleeding. Parnell makes his first career major league start tonight after being in the bullpen all season. His record is 2-3 and his ERA is a respectable 3.74, but he hasn't pitched more than 3 innings in any game, and I can't imagine him being effective after he reaches around 50 pitches this evening. San Diego might not be the best hitting team in baseball, but they have scored a bunch of runs in the first two games of this series and they do hit better at home than on the road. Believe it or not, the Mets have won only three of the last 13 meetings with the Padres and they've won just 4 of their last 14 on the road. I'll take my chances with one young pitcher (at home) over another.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY ME---------GL GUYS