Tulsa at Memphis (-14'), at Memphis, Tenn.
By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
We'll get to your analysis momentarily, but don't forget my 200? side winner in this contest is available along with my highest-rated release of the entire season out of the America East Conference - my 1,000? College Lock of the Year. The last time I released a 1,000? play it was three weeks ago and New Mexico crushed San Diego State by better than 20 points. This is an early 11:00 a.m. tip time, so don't miss out on starting your day with an extra 1,000 units in hand.
Don't you deserve a winner today?
I know Memphis has put together some defensive masterpieces this season, especially over its past 10 games, but this is not only the championship game between last year’s finalists, but this is the same Tulsa team looking for revenge from an embarrassing 63-37 loss just 32 days ago. Not to mention the blowout loss in last year’s final.
Fact is, this is an improved Tulsa team that has just as much momentum as John Calipari’s bunch right now, and there is no doubt in my head we’re going to see a somewhat high-scoring game for these two. I know I always say to look inside the betting numbers at this point in the season, but that’s near impossible when taking in account six of the last seven meetings have stayed under.
The over is on winning runs in five of Tulsa’s last six, and seven of its last eight after an ATS win. And since both teams have shined offensively the past months and a half, I don’t think it’ll be as tight as everyone thinks.
Memphis put up 74 on Houston yesterday; Tulsa scored 70 on UAB. Now it’s time to outscore one another, and I don’t think either believes the concern is on defense, but rather how to out-perform the other offensively. After all, Calipari knows a blowout win means a No. 1 seed, while the Golden Hurricane have to know the only way to win is to penetrate the D and score points.
Play this one high.
1? OVER
Mississippi State (+3') vs. Lsu, at Tampa
By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
I whole-heartedly agree the Tigers might be the most underappreciated talent right now in college basketball. But boy oh boy do these Bulldogs look awfully rabid after an 82-68 whipping of South Carolina in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. And since Mississippi State's home loss to LSU just a little more than a month ago started a nasty skid that threatened to blow the Bulldogs' entire season, I think there’s revenge in order here.
Mississippi State has won four straight now, and I think it’s more than ready to avenge that 97-94 setback to LSU in double-overtime in Starkville on Feb. 11. It was a game marred by arguably some ugly officiating, and a technical foul at the end of regulation, which resulted in the first overtime tipping off with LSU holding a one-point lead.
The Bulldogs don’t talk much about it, but it’s still fresh in their minds. As is the 24-point shellacking the Tigers gave MSU back on Jan. 21. Prior to this year’s regular-season sweep, Mississippi State had won four straight in this series.
Just looking at the technical point of this game, I see that while both defenses give up their far share of points, it’s the Bulldogs who appear to have the more potent offensive attack. In nine of their last 10 games they’ve scored at least 75 points – six times posting 80 or more. LSU has gotten past 80 just twice in its last 10.
Something strange is brewing here, and I’m going to roll with Mississippi State and the points in this one.
1? MISSISSIPPI STATE
Mississippi State vs. LSU (-3') at Tampa
By Tony Weston, Featured Handicapper
That’s two straight Comp Play winners in a row as Michigan State does its job yesterday. We’re going for No. 3 in a row today as we’re taking Louisiana State over Mississippi State in some SEC action.
In their two meetings this season the Tigers have beaten the Bulldogs by an average of 13.5 points per game. And today, LSU is installed as only about a 3 1/2 point favorite.
We’re taking advantage of that line as we’re taking the Tigers to win this one by double digits.
LSU comes into this game having covered in six of its last eight games when installed as a favorite of between 1/2 and 6 1/2 points and has covered in three straight games against Mississippi State.
Keep in mind also, that over their last 13 games, the Tigers have gone 11-2 SU and have outscored their opponents by nearly five points per, at an average of 75-70.3.
Today, LSU will make it four straight covers against Mississippi State and continue its winning trend. Take LSU easily in this one today.
3? LSU
Auburn vs. Tennessee at Tampa
By Jeff Benton, Featured Handicapper
Finally got back in the free-play win column Friday, as Louisville (4?) rallied in the second half and covered against Villanova. For Saturday, we’ll play Auburn plus the points against Tennessee in SEC tournament action.
This play comes down to the simple fact that no team in the nation – not one! – has been as profitable this season as Auburn. After Friday’s 61-58 upset win over Florida as a 3½-point underdog, the Tigers are now a remarkable 20-5 ATS on the season. That includes 10 consecutive spread-covers in a row and 13 of 15, all in SEC action. The current 10-0 ATS run started with a 78-77 upset win over Tennessee as a 3½-point home underdog on Feb. 7, and during its 13-2 ATS streak, Auburn is 7-0 ATS as an underdog, including five outright upsets!
Auburn essentially punched its Big Dance ticket with yesterday’s win over the Gators, but don’t think for a second that this team – which had lost four straight SEC tournament games (1-3 ATS) before this season and hadn’t advanced past the quarterfinals since 2000 – doesn’t want to win this whole enchilada.
Meanwhile, even though Tennessee was very impressive in last night’s double-digit rout of Alabama, the Vols remain just 8-6 SU in their last 14 and 8-12 ATS in their last 20 (6-10 ATS as a favorite). In fact, UT’s 12-15-1 ATS record this year pales in comparison to Auburn’s 20-5 ATS mark. Grab the points.
5? AUBURN (based on a 1? to 10? scale)
Ohio State vs. MICHIGAN STATE - at Indianapolis
By Sports Gambling Hotline, Featured Handicapper
Outright winner on Temple yesterday to put our Bonus Play run at 23-14-2 the last 39 days!
Today, lay the wood with Michigan State, as the Spartans are making their case for a # 1 seed come Sunday's unveiling of the Big Dance brackets.
Michigan State took care of business yesterday with the win and cover over Minnesota, as Tom Izzo's team ran their winning streak to 6 in a row, and the Spartans have also banked the cabbage in their last pair of wins, and 3 of their last 4.
The Buckeyes did pull the mild upset over Wisconsin yesterday, but they were unable to dent the Spartans in this year's season series, Michigan State winning by 9 in East Lansing as the 11-point favorite, and winning by an impressive 11 at Columbus as the 3-point road choice.
The Spartans have been quietly building their Big Dance resume, and with Pittsburgh, Connecticut, and Oklahoma ALL bowing out early in their respective conference tournaments, perhaps a convincing Spartans win both today, and tomorrow will earn them the right to be a # 1 seed come Sunday night.
It all starts with this semifinal double-digit win, and cover.
Lay the wood!
4? MICHIGAN STATE
Ohio State vs. MICHIGAN STATE (-7'), in Indianapolis
By Bobby Maxwell, Featured Handicapper
We've delivered FREE winners in 27 of the last 48 days and today we've got another one for you as we go with Michigan State to get the job done against Ohio State.
Ohio State just isn't a team that can pull off this upset today. The Buckeyes got to 20 wins with Friday's victory, but they aren't getting No. 21 today because Michigan State is a much better team and Tom Izzo has his team focused and preparing for the Big Dance.
Michigan State has won the last three against Ohio State, including a two-game sweep this season, 67-58 at home and 78-67 in Ohio. The Spartans have covered two of the last three in this series.
The Spartans have won six straight games (4-2 ATS) and they are on ATS runs of 6-2 as a favorite, 6-1 on Saturdays, 7-3 overall (all in Big Ten play) and 44-20-1 as a favorite of 7 to 12 1/2-points. Meanwhile the Buckeyes are just 1-4 ATS in their last five against teams with winning records.
Look for a balanced effort from the Spartans today and they'll pull away late and beat the Buckeyes by double-digits. Play Michigan State.
4? MICHIGAN STATE
Ohio State vs. Michigan State (-7') at Indianapolis
By Drew Gordon, Featured Handicapper
Nice win by the Buckeyes yesterday against Wisconsin, but this is where the winning stops, as they match up against a Spartans team that not only has plenty to play for, but is playing extremely well of late. With all the upsets that happened yesterday, all of a sudden a # 1 seed in the Mayhem is a possibilty, so rest-assured, coach Izzo will have his boys playing HARD in this one, and that's bad news for Ohio State-backers!
Speaking of recent play, leave it up to Tom Izzo to have his team peaking at precisely the right time, winners of 6 in a row SU (4-2 ATS)! They won and covered vs Minnesota yesterday 64-56, and I expect more of the same today. How have they done it? The way you'd expect, on defense, allowing 57 ppg on 39% shooting over their last 5 games! Ohio State's defense has been solid, but they're still allowing a relatively generous 43% shooting over the same 5-game span.
The real difference here is in the paint, where Morgan and Suton can and will own this OSU frontline. Dallas Lauderdale is a decent player, but he's going to get gobbled alive by the Michigan State frontcourt. We all know the Spartans are an excellent rebounding team, and if you do not have the size to match up, you're in BIG trouble. This holds true once again this afternoon, just like it did in both meetings this season!
Looking over their two match ups this season, we learned two things: A. The Spartans frontcort owned the Buckeyes, as mentioned above. And B. Even when the Buckeyes were at home, and shot 54%, they still lost by 11 points, wondering why? Because they simply could not stop the Michigan State offense, led by Kalin Lucas. Spartans shot 49% in Columbus, and I expect another strong shooting effort this afternoon against a beatable Ohio State D. Lay the points, as Izzo and his troops come in focused and ready for this contest.
Take Michigan State over Ohio State in this college hoops match up.
2? MICHIGAN STATE