Joseph D'Amico
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Play: New York Knicks +5.5
New York has steadily progressed over recent weeks. They have seemed to mesh as a unit, and have overcome all of their off-the-court distractions. The Knick's have won 4 straight and 6 of 7 over the Heat, including their only meeting earlier this season. Forward Dorell Wright is once again listed as day-to-day with a knee injury for Miami. The Heat are 0-5 ATS their last 5 at home when playing the 2nd game of back-to-back at the American Airlines Arena. New York is 4-0 ATS their last 4 road games vs. teams with a winning home record and 8-1 ATS their last 9 as a road 'dog of 5-10.5 points. Miami is 16-35-1 ATS their last 52 as a favorite, 3-8-1 ATS their last 12 games played on 0 days rest, and 7-19 ATS their last 26 vs. the NBA Atlantic. New York gets the easy cover here.
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Play: New York Knicks +5.5
New York has steadily progressed over recent weeks. They have seemed to mesh as a unit, and have overcome all of their off-the-court distractions. The Knick's have won 4 straight and 6 of 7 over the Heat, including their only meeting earlier this season. Forward Dorell Wright is once again listed as day-to-day with a knee injury for Miami. The Heat are 0-5 ATS their last 5 at home when playing the 2nd game of back-to-back at the American Airlines Arena. New York is 4-0 ATS their last 4 road games vs. teams with a winning home record and 8-1 ATS their last 9 as a road 'dog of 5-10.5 points. Miami is 16-35-1 ATS their last 52 as a favorite, 3-8-1 ATS their last 12 games played on 0 days rest, and 7-19 ATS their last 26 vs. the NBA Atlantic. New York gets the easy cover here.
2-Minute Warning Saturday's Play Indiana State
The Vegas Wise Guys are on a 20-9-1 run since last summer, including 6-0 in basketball this season.
Bobby Maxwell Saturday's 2-0 college sweep 300-Unit In-State Rivalry Release - BYU
This is a huge rivalry in the state of Utah and there's no way we go against BYU tonight as they will come out and be knocking down shots all over the court and get a win and cover in this one.
BYU is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in its last eight games and scored a comeback 69-59 win at San Diego State. The Cougars were down by 14 points with about 14 minutes to play and went on a tear down the stretch to get the victory by 10.
The first time these two teams met was Jan. 27 when the Utes got a home win in overtime, winning 94-88 as a 3 1/2-point home favorite. BYU is two games behind the Utes in the Mountain West Conference standings and they are 5-1 at home this season and they've won 37 of their last 38 MWC home games, going 3-0 SU and ATS against Utah in Provo the last three years.
The Utes have to keep the game at a nice moderate pace and use their inside domination to win the game. But BYU wants a frantic pace and wants to use its superior athletic ability and they will get their way in front of the home fans today.
Play the Cougars to win this big rivalry and the fans in Provo will be celebrating.
100-Unit Big 12 Big Shot - TEXAS
The Longhorns are starting to get things turned around again after a few weeks of bad basketball. Play Texas to get it done tonight at Oklahoma State.
Texas scored a 73-68 victory over Oklahoma a week ago and then got an 87-81 win over Texas Tech on Wednesday. Even though the 'Horns are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games, they are averaging 82 points per game and shooting almost 50 percent from the floor.
Oklahoma State is not a very good team. The Cowboys were in a 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS slump before this recent four-game winn streak, most recently dominating Colorado 76-55 as a 5 1/2-point road favorite on Wednesday.
The Longhorns are on a six-game winning streak in this rivalry and they are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Back on Feb. 10, Texas got an easy 99-74 blowout win over the Cowboys as 8 1/2-point favorites.
The Cowboys might be in the middle of the pack in the Big 12 standings, but they have been beating up the bottom-feeders. They are just 2-5 ATS against teams with a winning record.
Play Texas to continue its dominance in this rivalry. The Longhorns win it by 7 in Stillwater, Okla.
100-Unit Pac-10 Underdog Lock - CALIFORNIA
The Bruins have been a disaster at the betting window lately and there will be no difference today as Cal will be the straight-up winner of this one.
UCLA got a 76-71 victory at Stanford on Thursday and fushed as a five-point road favorite. But they are just 2-3 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in the last five games and the Bruins defense has been shaky lately, allowing 77.4 points and 53 percent shooting over the last five.
They have no interior offense and UCLA has to generate turnovers to get some easy baskets.
Cal has won five of its last six games, including four straight at home. They beat USC 81-78 in OT on Thursday, but failed to cover as a four-point favorite. The Bears are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
Pac-10 teams are developing a blueprint on how to beat the Bruins, with a controlled tempo and tough defense that usually forces UCLA into a late shot when the shot clock in running down.
The Bears are 9-3 ATS int its last 12 at home and 10-3 ATS in its last 13 after a straight-up win. UCLA is just 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road gaems and 0-4-1 ATS overall.
The two teams are tied for second place in the Pac-10 standings, 1 1/2-games behind Washignton. But right now, Cal is playing better and is looking like the much better team.
Play the Golden Bears to win this one outright tonight.
Brandon Lang Saturday ... 20-Dime Villanova
20-Dime Florida State
20-Dime LSU
5-Dime James Madison
5-Dime Rice
5-Dime Virginia Tech
FREE - Oklahoma State (See daily video for your analysis)
NOTE: Expecting big things today. Big things.
Nobody knows better than I do right now just how important not only today is but just how important this month of March is thru the Championship game in April.
Throughout the course of a calendar year there are quite a few defining moments for a handicapper like me and most of the time I have been able to meet them head on with more successes than failures.
Today is one of those defining moments.
When the NCAA championship game has come and gone, anybody who rolled with me today going forward will look back on today as the day it all turned around.
That is how good I feel about today. The best I have felt about a college basketball card all year long.
So without further adieu, let's get after my biggest College basketball day of the year.
20-Dime Villanova - If there is one thing I can say about Jay Wright, he knows how to coach for this time of the season in December. That's not a typo ... the Nova coach is not afraid to sit any or all of his starters early in the season, ignore the scoreboard and let his 'bench' learn and gain experience. It's a trait that helped him turn around Hofstra's program, and an attribute that has resurrected the Wildcats since he's arrived. And right now, with about a week left in the regular season, you're going to see how gritty the No. 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 players are off the bench.
It was only a couple of weeks back we were talking about this team being the hottest in what is now being labeled the best conference in the nation. So a loss to West Virginia silenced that fodder, big deal. The Mountaineers are solid and are well-coached. And in this league, letdowns are as common as tip-offs. Fact is, this one is in Philly, and the 'Cats will be up for their first home game since the 19th. Georgetown has now lost two in a row, being blown out by Louisville and falling short against Marquette - both at home. The Hoyas are 4-7 SU and 3-7 ATS on the highway this season, and the Wildcats are in quadruple revenge against their DC rivals. 'Mark my words, Wright has reminded his troops about last season's Big East Tourney loss to G'Town. An 82-63 thrashing. Revenge is sweet, lay the home chalk.
Analysis on your 20 Dimers will be online by 11 a.m. eastern.
20-Dime Florida State -
20-Dime LSU -
5-Dime James Madison - Can't pass up this kind of value with JMU today. After imploding at home in the 2nd half of the VCU game, they find themselves in the roll of road dog, a roll they have been very profitable in. As part of their 8-2 ATS run on the highway this year, they are 6-1 ATS when getting points. This is a team still playing their best basketball of the year winning 4 of their last 7 SU and 6-1 ATS. Their 3 losses have been an OT loss at Hofstra, an OT loss at VCU and the home loss Wednesday night. It was supposed to be a promising year for Delaware but it's been a disaster at 12-18. Bottom line is when you start losing to the 10-20 Towson State's of the world, you are not going to beat a better road tested James Madison team tonight. Grab the small dog.
5-Dime Rice - Don't think all is well with Tommy Penders and his Houston Cougars. They have lost 2 of their last 3 overall including back to back road losses at Marshall and Tulsa. Personally I don't think there is enough basketball in the gym for Coleman and Lewis to get the amount of shots they both want and it's starting to wear on the team. This team is just 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS their last 10 and are facing a Rice team that won't be intimidated by them. The Owls come off perhaps their best win of the year, winning outright at UCF on Wednesday night as a 12-point dog. Furthermore, they are facing a Houston team they will be confident against, having played them tough back on February 7th, losing by 7 as an 18 point underdog. Rice is playing with a renewed confidence covering 6 of their last 7 games overall and 4-0 ATS their last 5 on Saturday. In a game I feel goes right down to the wire, grab the generous amount of points with a live dog today.
5-Dime Virginia Tech - Still not a believer in Duke. No real inside threat. Just a bunch of guards waiting to jack up 3's off Gerald Henderson penetration. They can be had and I believe Virginia Tech, like Boston College, Clemson and Michigan before them, takes care of business at home today. Duke is just 2-5 ATS last 7 overall and 1-4 ATS their last 5 road games. V'tech can play, as evidenced by their road wins over Clemson, Miami/Florida and Wake Forest so understand this team can get after it. They are in a great revenge spot having gotten drilled by Duke in the first meeting January 4th getting outscored in the 2nd half by 17. Virginia Tech is a rock solid 10-3 ATS last 13 as an underdog and I truly believe it's a different story at home today as the Hokies punch Duke right in the mouth and get the cover.
Chris Jordan Saturday Winners ...
600♦ UTAH STATE - Let it be known, in most other situations, I’d think about siding with a team like the Aggies, solely because they just clinched the Western Athletic Conference title, and really have nothing else to play for before the tournament. With the No. 1 seed wrapped up, you’d think this is the perfect time to rest. But there are three intangibles that easily override that one factor. One, we have USU coach Stew Morrill, and there is no time to rest on laurels under his regime. Two, this is a meaningful clash for the Aggies, who still have something to prove against the stalwart Wolfpack. Three, this is a pick’em game in which we need only pick the winner, and no matter where the game is being played - this season, right now, these players, this team … all Utah State.
Fact is, while the Aggies appear ready for the postseason with a well-balanced rotation that can play at either end of the floor, the Wolfpack come into their own Lawlor Events Center with their hands full defensively and struggling offensively. Not exactly the matchup many thought of way back when, as this was the presumed showdown for the regular-season title. Again, the Aggies have wrapped it up, but they’ll still want to deliver the knock-out statement. And with an 11-point win in the first meeting notched on the belt, I don’t see how this confident roster duplicates the effort and basically secures the win – which is all we need.
Nevada has looked bleak from the field in its last three games, connecting on just 37.9 percent of its shots from the field, and now it has to try to play keep up with a Utah State team that is shooting 49.9 percent from the wood the entire season – the fourth-best shooting effort in the nation.
And don’t worry about a letdown, as Morrill is a veteran coach who isn’t about to let his troops forget Nevada is the premier team in the league – not his Aggies. That should spark some intensity. Nevada has been the dominant team in the WAC for however number of years now, but the Aggies can taste that statement. They know that regardless of the regular-season title they clinched two nights ago, the changing of the guard relies on this contest. A loss means nothing, in terms of seeding. But perception is reality, and the Aggies want everyone to know there’s a new sheriff in conference.
Give me Utah State tonight, as the Wolfpack step aside, for now, to make room for the WAC’s newest top dawg.
200♦ CALIFORNIA - The overtime-win over Southern Cal was an important win for the Golden Bears. It was also a lucky one. And there’s no doubt in my head the only reason it went into overtime was because the Bears became complacent with the lead, counted it as a win and ultimately was looking ahead to this game. After all, Cal is 2-0 against conference-leading Washington and 1-0 against 11th-ranked Arizona State. But there’s something about beating UCLA that means more than anything else.
And the same way the Golden Bears avenged an earlier loss to the Trojans in Los Angeles, by posting their seventh victory over a team rated in the top 50 of the RPI computer, I expect them to leave it all on the Haas Pavilion floor and avenge an earlier-season loss that was one of only two games they’ve lost by 15 or more.
Trust me, when Cal is running on all cylinders, it is unstoppable. And there is no other team in the Pac-10 better when playing at home than the Bears. They come into this game with a 16-1 record at home while the Bruins are no better than average with a 5-4 mark when toting a suitcase in hand. Give me the value in this one, as Cal emerges tonight with the one win it wants more than any other.
Drew Gordon Today's Games... 1. 200,000♦ Virginia Tech
2. 50,000♦ Creighton
3. 50,000♦ Oklahoma State
1. Virginia Tech- Hokies got back on the bubble with an impressive outright win at Clemson Wednesday, and I expect the same kind of energy (if not more) in this critical ACC rematch with Duke this afternoon. The knock on the Hokies was their recent road play (0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS away prior to Wednesday), but taking down Clemson was a big step forward, and sets them up perfectly today in Blacksburg, where they're just as good as Duke on both ends of the court. But let's dig a little deeper...
Before we get into match ups, its important to note that the Blue Devils handed the Hokies their worst loss of the season, a 69-44 drubbing in Durham back on January 4th, and now its payback time! Revenge is a key factor in capping any college game, but this one in particular, because Duke routed a Tech team that was still finding its way, and they learned a lot because of it. Need proof? The Hokies reeled off 5 straight ACC wins after that loss, and now things come full circle, as Va. Tech shows the Dukies just how much better they've gotten today.
As far as match ups are concerned, I'm looking for the Hokies Big 3, Delaney, Vassallo, and Allen to lead the way, as usual, but with a twist. I remember their last meeting well, and if you saw that game, you know Delaney played well, but Vassallo and Allen were just awful. Everyone is allowed an off-day, but rest-assured, the Hokies Big 3 will come to play this afternoon, especially Vassallo, who's really stepped it up of late (20+ ppg in 4 of last 5 games).
On the flip side, while Duke has won 3 straight, forgive me if I'm not impressed by them winning games they're supposed to win. Looking into the numbers, its clear their defense has fallen off considerably, allowing 81 ppg on a mind-boggling 55% shooting over their last 5 games! Guys, needless to say, its extremely difficult to cover as a road chalk (against a desperate opponent), if you're going to play NO defense!
Bottom line, while Duke may still get the W here, I wouldn't be surprised in the least, if Virginia Tech pulls off another outright upset here. They've got the home court, they've got a HUGE motivational edge (on the bubble, revenge), and are playing with a lot of confidence after winning at Clemson. Look for the Hokies to circle the wagons at home, and grab the cash in this critical ACC match up.
Take Virginia Tech plus the points over Duke as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Creighton- Huge game for the Bluejays, who sit at 13-4 in conference, tied with Northern Iowa for the top spot. A win here guarantees them no less than a co-conference championship, and that in and of itslef, is obviously a HUGE motivator. Look for the Jays to come out fired up, but that's hardly the only reason I like Creighton here...
Redbirds-backers cannot be happy with their team's play of late, losers of two in a row SUATS. Fact is, they're playing like a team that really has nothing to play for, in that, Illinois State has already locked up # 3 seed. So really guys, what's the motivation for this Redbirds team this afternoon?
Speaking of motivation, you know we can't talk about this contest without mentioning the fact the Bluejays have lost 4 in a row SUATS in this series, including an ugly 86-64 loss at Redbird Arena back in early January. I've said once and I'll say it again, payback is a bitch, and the Redbirds are about to find that out the hard way today.
So what's the difference in this match up? Well clearly, the Bluejays are playing great ball, winners of 9 in a row since they lost to Drake badly at home. We've seen this Creighton offense take off, averaging 76 ppg at home this season, and 78 ppg on nealry 50% shooting over their last 5 games! While both defenses are comparable statistically, there's no question the Bluejays offense has a huge edge.
Finally, one of the main reasons the Redbirds are suddenly struggling has been the drop-off in play of one of their best players (and a Creighton-killer in the past) Osiris Eldridge. He's averaged 19 ppg in his last 5 meetings with Creighton, but of late, has been slumping bad, averaging 11 ppg on 33% shooting over his last 5 games. Note, Eldridge is just 4 of 25 over his last 2 games, and breaking that slump against a very good, and highly motivated Bluejays defense is easier said than done. In the end, the Bluejays can lock up a co-conference championship, and coupled with the revenge factor and match ups issues mentioned above, look for the Bluejays to deliver the solid home win and cover this afternoon.
Take Creighton over Illinois State in this college hoops match up.
3. Oklahoma State- Good spot to back the Cowboys, who have several strong edges in this contest, but let's start with the situational aspects...
We all knew the Longhorns needed to rebound after an ugly loss at Texas A&M, and they did that by winning two critical home games. Now however, one has to question their focus going back out on the road... In other words, I smell a letdown here for the Longhorns, as matching the energy of the Cowboys in Stillwater coming off those two wins is easier said than done.
Speaking of Stillwater, there's no question it remains one of the toughest places to play in the Big 12, with the Cowboys going 12-2 SU and 5-4 ATS there this season. Herein lies the problem for the Longhorns, as the Cowboys offense is excellent at home, burning up the nets averaging 88 ppg on 47% shooting (incl. almost 40% from 3-point land)! For as good as Texas has been, their offense on the road has been average at best, averaging 69 ppg on 42% shooting (incl. just 25% from long range).
Clearly, Okie State has the edge offensively, and the 'Horns recent road losses at Texas A&M (66 points scored) and Nebraska (55 points scored), show why I like the Cowboys in this contest... Texas will not be able to keep pace. Defensively, we'll give the edge to Texas, but not by much, especially of late, allowing 76 ppg on 48% shooting over their last 5 games (not nearly good enough to win in this contest).
Finally, once again, we see another revenge contest here (a lot of payback going around today). The Longhorns mauled the Cowboys 99-74 in Austin back on Feb. 10th, and you best believe Okie State will be ready for the rematch today at home. True, Texas has won the last 6 meetings between these two teams, but only one of those 6 games was in Stillwater, and that one was a razor close 63-61 Texas win, but Okie State cover. The Cowboys finally make it over the hump, get their revenge AND add a much needed win to their resume this afternoon.
Take Oklahoma State over Texas in this college hoops match up.
Jeff Benton Saturday's College Hoops winners ... 30 Dime: NOTRE DAME (plus the points vs. UConn)
10 Dime: ARIZONA (plus the points vs. Washington)
5 Dime: FLORIDA STATE (plus the points vs. Clemson)
Notre Dame
Without question, Notre Dame has to go down as one of the most disappointing teams in college hoops this season, right along side Big East rival Georgetown and Tennessee from the SEC. And without question, UConn is one of the Top 5 teams in the country and a legitimate national championship contender. All that said, this line is seriously inflated, and it’s inflated for a few reasons.
First and foremost is the fact that Notre Dame is coming off a shaky five-point home win over Rutgers, failing to cover as a 14-point favorite, making the Irish 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games, 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games and 4-11 ATS in Big East play. However, Notre Dame is playing much better lately, winning four of their last five games, including a 33-point home blowout of Louisville and a 19-point romp last Saturday at Providence – the same Providence that just upset top-ranked Pitt at home on Wednesday.
Another reason this line is inflated is because Georgetown is coming off one of its most impressive performances of the season, a 93-82 win at No. 8 Marquette, which had previously been unbeaten at home. However, prior to that contest, the Huskies had failed to cover a pointspread in three straight games overall and four of five. In fact, UConn is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games and 3-5 ATS when hosting Big East foes this season. Going back to before the start of conference play, UConn has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 at home. Not only that, but check out UConn’s pointspread record as a big favorite: 3-7 ATS when laying double digits.
Lastly, this number is jacked up because UConn wemt to South Bent a month ago and took out the Irish 69-61 as a two-point road favorite. However, the Huskies had Jerome Dyson that day, and he went off for 15 points, nine rebounds, three assists and two steals in 35 minutes of action. As we know, Dyson is done for the season with a knee injury, so that’s a big advantage that the Irish don’t have to deal with him today.
Notre Dame has not won at Connecticut in years, but the Irish have been competitive there recently. They lost by six points last year, by one point in overtime in 2006, by 14 in 2005 and 11 in 2004. If you apply this pointspread today to any of those previous four games, well, Notre Dame would’ve gone 3-1 ATS.
Bottom line: I don’t expect Notre Dame to win, but the team has shown life lately and I do believe we’ll get the Irish’s best effort. And given how UConn has really struggled to cover these big numbers at home – and given that the Huskies are shooting just 66 percent from the foul line in their last five games and had been held under 70 points in six straight games before Wednesday – gimme the value with the quality underdog.
Arizona
The Arizona Wildcats have definitely struggled on the road in Pac-10 play, with only two victories, both against the league’s weakest teams (Oregon and Oregon State). And they were dreadful in the second half on Thursday at Washington State, turning a 29-26 halftime lead into a 69-53 loss after getting outscored 43-24 in the final 20 minutes. Prior to that effort, though, the Wildcats had been playing outstanding basketball. They won seven straight games from Jan. 24-Feb. 14 – including a 106-97 rout of Washington as a one-point home underdog – before losing a buzzer-beater at archrival Arizona State on Sunday, falling 70-68 as an eight-point underdog.
In fact, before losing at Wazu, Arizona had cashed in seven of eight games, including three straight as an underdog. Meanwhile, Washington hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire lately. The Huskies needed overtime to beat Arizona State at home Thursday (73-70), the same Arizona State that barely held off Arizona at home on Sunday, and last weekend Washington fell apart in the second half against UCLA (85-76 loss) and needed a big surge in the final five minutes to get past USC (60-51).
But this play more or less comes down to the matchup, as both of these teams like to run up and down the floor, as evidenced by the 106-97 shootout in Tucson a month ago. In fact, all four of Washington’s conference losses this season have come against opponents – Arizona, UCLA and Cal (twice) – that love the up-tempo pace that the Huskies play. And I believe with pure scorers like Chase Budinger (17.5 points, 6.5 rebounds per game) and stud forward Jordan Hill (17.9 points, 11 rebounds per game), the Wildcats will keep pace with Washington all day today.
In fact, just look how Arizona has been shooting the ball of late, averaging 75 ppg on 49 percent shooting in the last five games, including a blistering 38.4 percent from beyond the arc. By comparison, Washington is averaging a few more points than Arizona in its last five (78.2 ppg), but shooting 45.8 ppg including a woeful 31 percent on three-pointers.
The Huskies are just 3-4 ATS in Pac-10 home games this season, with two of the covers coming against Oregon and Oregon State. Meanwhile, Arizona has cashed in four of five games as an underdog of five points or more, and the Wildcats are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five series meetings, scoring 96, 84, 84 and 106 points in the four victories! Grab the big points, and don’t be surprised by an outright upset.
Florida State
I am totally and completely baffled by this pointspread. You’ve got two teams with identical 8-5 conference records and near-identical overall records (Clemson is 22-5; Florida State is 21-7). You’ve got Clemson coming off an 80-77 home loss to Virginia Tech as a 10-point favorite, one that’s split its last six games both SU and ATS. On the other hand, you’ve got the Seminoles coming off a close 72-67 road loss at Boston College, but they’re still 5-2 SU in their last seven games and 8-3-1 ATS in conference play.
Plus, Florida State has won three straight home games and is 4-2 in ACC home games, with the only losses coming against North Carolina (80-77) and Duke (66-58), two teams that are quite superior to Clemson. And on top of all that is this beauty: Earlier this month, Florida State went to Death Valley … and beat the Tigers 65-61 outright as a nine-point underdog!
So how in the hell can Clemson, which is just 3-2 SU and ATS in ACC road games, be favored in this contest today? Perhaps it’s a big fat trap, and if it is, then I’m a big fat sucker. But I just don’t see it. After all, Clemson’s defense has sprung a leak lately, giving up 75.8 points per game in the last five outings on 46.8 percent shooting overall and 47.3 percent from three-point range. And on the road, the Tigers give up 79.3 ppg on 49.4 percent shooting, quite a difference from what the Seminoles do defensively at home (62.1 ppg allowed on 37.3 percent shooting).
In fact, look at the point totals Clemson has allowed in its five ACC roadies (73 to Georgia Tech; 85 to lowly Virginia; 77 to Boston College; 82 to Virginia Tech and 94 to North Carolina). All five of those opponents shot 48 percent from the field or better, with four eclipsing 50 percent! Throw in the fact that the Seminoles are on a plethora of pointspread streaks (18-8-2 overall, 20-6-1 as an underdog, 6-0-1 after an ATS loss, 12-4-2 in ACC play), and I’ll jump all over the undervalued home team in this one.
Karl Garrett 30 DIMER - WASHINGTON....20 DIMER - OKLAHOMA STATE....10 DIMER - ALABAMA 30 DIMER - WASHINGTON HUSKIES - 3PM
Washington gutted out an overtime win on Thursday over Arizona State, but they did fail to cover the impost. I don't think we will be seeing overtime today, as reality looks like it has settled in with Arizona - they Wildcats are good, but their 16-point loss at Wash State was the loss # 2 in a row, # 3 is most defitnitely on the horizon today!
This is a revenge spot for the Huskies who allowed 69-points in the second half of their 97-106 loss at Tuscon at the end of January. The host has now won and covered the last 4 series meetings.
U-Dub is a solid 15-1 straight up at home, and 9-5 against the spread in their lined home dates.
Arizona has struggled away from home at just 5-6 against the spread, and they will stuggle here today.
Lay it, as this one turns into a rout!
20 DIMER - OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS - 6PM
Looks tempting to back the Longhorns in this one, as Texas has won 6 straight in this series, including a 99-74 romp at home just over 2 weeks ago.
Since that loss, Oklahoma State has won and covered 4 in a row to move to 18-9 on the year. A win today would go a long way on the Cowboys Big Dance resume.
Oklahoma State is a solid 12-2 straight up at home, and it is just not easy to win in Stillwater for anyone.
You can expect the home crowd to be rocking today, and you can also expect the Cowboys to take down the Longhorns, and stop a 6 game series slide.
G-Man taking the Pokes.
10 DIMER - ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE - 4PM
Both schools stand at 15-12 this year, and while Ole Miss has been murder at home - 13-2 straight up, 8-3 against the spread - I have a feeling this game is going down to the wire.
The Tide did eek out the 76-73 home win over the Rebels on January 21st, as Alabama is now 4-2 straight up the last 6 series meetings.
Ole Miss is off a second half collapse at Auburn, and I believe that loss will have a lingering effect today. It may not linger the full 40 minutes, but expect it to be present early on, and for Alabama to take advantage plus the points.
Roll Tide!
Michael Cannon Saturday's Plays...
30 Dime –
EAST CAROLINA
10 Dime –
ROCKETS
5 Dime -
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
I will be back by 11:00 am eastern with my analysis.
Sports Gambling Hotline CHARLOTTE SERVICE For Saturday, Top-Rated 3♦ on Wake Forest minus the points. Bonus 2♦s on Dayton minus the points, and a 2♦ on Duke minus the points.
MIAMI SERVICE For Saturday, Top-Rated 3♦ on Vanderbilt as a small favorite. Bonus 2♦s on Gonzaga minus the points, and a NBA 2♦ on Chicago at a near pick at home.
Tony Weston SATURDAY'S PLAYS 35 Dime Arizona State
15 Dime Villanova
Arizona State at Washington State
ARIZONA STATE - After dropping a couple of games SU and ATS back-to-back last month, the Arizona State Sun Devils have been on a tear as of late.
Arizona State has covered in five of its last six games, going 5-1 SU in that stretch, and has covered in five straight games on the road, going 4-1 SU in that stretch.
Tonight, the Sun Devils will continue their winning ways and get over on Pac-10 rival Washington State.
Depending on where you go ASU is installed as about a 1-point favorite and will blow right past that as they battle a Cougars team that’s covered in only three of 12 home games this season. For the year, Washington State is only 3-5 ATS at home against the Pac-10.
ASU, on the other hand, is on a five-game ATS road winning streak and has covered in five of its last six against the Pac-10, beating its opponents, on average, 65.6-59.3.
The Sun Devils will keep up its winning trends on the road and against the Pac-10 with an easy win over the Cougars tonight. Take ASU on the road in this one.
Georgetown at Villanova
VILLANOVA - When you think of Big East basketball, it’s not out of the ordinary to think of teams like UConn, Louisville and Pittsburgh.
But almost quietly, the Villanova Wildcats are making a push in the grinder of a conference that is the Big East. Villanova is only 2 1/2 games behind Connecticut and is sitting at 11-4 SU this season conference action.
’Nova has covered in nine of its last 12 games against the Big East and will cover one more time today against visiting Georgetown, which is only 8-20 ATS its last 28 in conference action.
Coming into this game the Wildcats have covered in five of their last six home games and have been especially strong on Saturdays, covering in six of their last seven games in Saturday.
Now they battle a Georgetown team that that has struggled mightily this season, going only 7-14-1 ATS this year, including only two covers in their last 15 games overall.
On the road the Hoyas have been equally as bad, covering only once in seven games away from home.
Against these Wildcats, Georgetown has not had much more luck, going only 4-9 ATS its last 13 games against Villanova.
The Wildcats will continue their dominance against Georgetown and get over easily today. Take Villanova at home in this Big East showdown
The Vegas Wise Guys are on a 20-9-1 run since last summer, including 6-0 in basketball this season.
Bobby Maxwell Saturday's 2-0 college sweep 300-Unit In-State Rivalry Release - BYU
This is a huge rivalry in the state of Utah and there's no way we go against BYU tonight as they will come out and be knocking down shots all over the court and get a win and cover in this one.
BYU is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in its last eight games and scored a comeback 69-59 win at San Diego State. The Cougars were down by 14 points with about 14 minutes to play and went on a tear down the stretch to get the victory by 10.
The first time these two teams met was Jan. 27 when the Utes got a home win in overtime, winning 94-88 as a 3 1/2-point home favorite. BYU is two games behind the Utes in the Mountain West Conference standings and they are 5-1 at home this season and they've won 37 of their last 38 MWC home games, going 3-0 SU and ATS against Utah in Provo the last three years.
The Utes have to keep the game at a nice moderate pace and use their inside domination to win the game. But BYU wants a frantic pace and wants to use its superior athletic ability and they will get their way in front of the home fans today.
Play the Cougars to win this big rivalry and the fans in Provo will be celebrating.
100-Unit Big 12 Big Shot - TEXAS
The Longhorns are starting to get things turned around again after a few weeks of bad basketball. Play Texas to get it done tonight at Oklahoma State.
Texas scored a 73-68 victory over Oklahoma a week ago and then got an 87-81 win over Texas Tech on Wednesday. Even though the 'Horns are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games, they are averaging 82 points per game and shooting almost 50 percent from the floor.
Oklahoma State is not a very good team. The Cowboys were in a 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS slump before this recent four-game winn streak, most recently dominating Colorado 76-55 as a 5 1/2-point road favorite on Wednesday.
The Longhorns are on a six-game winning streak in this rivalry and they are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Back on Feb. 10, Texas got an easy 99-74 blowout win over the Cowboys as 8 1/2-point favorites.
The Cowboys might be in the middle of the pack in the Big 12 standings, but they have been beating up the bottom-feeders. They are just 2-5 ATS against teams with a winning record.
Play Texas to continue its dominance in this rivalry. The Longhorns win it by 7 in Stillwater, Okla.
100-Unit Pac-10 Underdog Lock - CALIFORNIA
The Bruins have been a disaster at the betting window lately and there will be no difference today as Cal will be the straight-up winner of this one.
UCLA got a 76-71 victory at Stanford on Thursday and fushed as a five-point road favorite. But they are just 2-3 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in the last five games and the Bruins defense has been shaky lately, allowing 77.4 points and 53 percent shooting over the last five.
They have no interior offense and UCLA has to generate turnovers to get some easy baskets.
Cal has won five of its last six games, including four straight at home. They beat USC 81-78 in OT on Thursday, but failed to cover as a four-point favorite. The Bears are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
Pac-10 teams are developing a blueprint on how to beat the Bruins, with a controlled tempo and tough defense that usually forces UCLA into a late shot when the shot clock in running down.
The Bears are 9-3 ATS int its last 12 at home and 10-3 ATS in its last 13 after a straight-up win. UCLA is just 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road gaems and 0-4-1 ATS overall.
The two teams are tied for second place in the Pac-10 standings, 1 1/2-games behind Washignton. But right now, Cal is playing better and is looking like the much better team.
Play the Golden Bears to win this one outright tonight.
Brandon Lang Saturday ... 20-Dime Villanova
20-Dime Florida State
20-Dime LSU
5-Dime James Madison
5-Dime Rice
5-Dime Virginia Tech
FREE - Oklahoma State (See daily video for your analysis)
NOTE: Expecting big things today. Big things.
Nobody knows better than I do right now just how important not only today is but just how important this month of March is thru the Championship game in April.
Throughout the course of a calendar year there are quite a few defining moments for a handicapper like me and most of the time I have been able to meet them head on with more successes than failures.
Today is one of those defining moments.
When the NCAA championship game has come and gone, anybody who rolled with me today going forward will look back on today as the day it all turned around.
That is how good I feel about today. The best I have felt about a college basketball card all year long.
So without further adieu, let's get after my biggest College basketball day of the year.
20-Dime Villanova - If there is one thing I can say about Jay Wright, he knows how to coach for this time of the season in December. That's not a typo ... the Nova coach is not afraid to sit any or all of his starters early in the season, ignore the scoreboard and let his 'bench' learn and gain experience. It's a trait that helped him turn around Hofstra's program, and an attribute that has resurrected the Wildcats since he's arrived. And right now, with about a week left in the regular season, you're going to see how gritty the No. 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 players are off the bench.
It was only a couple of weeks back we were talking about this team being the hottest in what is now being labeled the best conference in the nation. So a loss to West Virginia silenced that fodder, big deal. The Mountaineers are solid and are well-coached. And in this league, letdowns are as common as tip-offs. Fact is, this one is in Philly, and the 'Cats will be up for their first home game since the 19th. Georgetown has now lost two in a row, being blown out by Louisville and falling short against Marquette - both at home. The Hoyas are 4-7 SU and 3-7 ATS on the highway this season, and the Wildcats are in quadruple revenge against their DC rivals. 'Mark my words, Wright has reminded his troops about last season's Big East Tourney loss to G'Town. An 82-63 thrashing. Revenge is sweet, lay the home chalk.
Analysis on your 20 Dimers will be online by 11 a.m. eastern.
20-Dime Florida State -
20-Dime LSU -
5-Dime James Madison - Can't pass up this kind of value with JMU today. After imploding at home in the 2nd half of the VCU game, they find themselves in the roll of road dog, a roll they have been very profitable in. As part of their 8-2 ATS run on the highway this year, they are 6-1 ATS when getting points. This is a team still playing their best basketball of the year winning 4 of their last 7 SU and 6-1 ATS. Their 3 losses have been an OT loss at Hofstra, an OT loss at VCU and the home loss Wednesday night. It was supposed to be a promising year for Delaware but it's been a disaster at 12-18. Bottom line is when you start losing to the 10-20 Towson State's of the world, you are not going to beat a better road tested James Madison team tonight. Grab the small dog.
5-Dime Rice - Don't think all is well with Tommy Penders and his Houston Cougars. They have lost 2 of their last 3 overall including back to back road losses at Marshall and Tulsa. Personally I don't think there is enough basketball in the gym for Coleman and Lewis to get the amount of shots they both want and it's starting to wear on the team. This team is just 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS their last 10 and are facing a Rice team that won't be intimidated by them. The Owls come off perhaps their best win of the year, winning outright at UCF on Wednesday night as a 12-point dog. Furthermore, they are facing a Houston team they will be confident against, having played them tough back on February 7th, losing by 7 as an 18 point underdog. Rice is playing with a renewed confidence covering 6 of their last 7 games overall and 4-0 ATS their last 5 on Saturday. In a game I feel goes right down to the wire, grab the generous amount of points with a live dog today.
5-Dime Virginia Tech - Still not a believer in Duke. No real inside threat. Just a bunch of guards waiting to jack up 3's off Gerald Henderson penetration. They can be had and I believe Virginia Tech, like Boston College, Clemson and Michigan before them, takes care of business at home today. Duke is just 2-5 ATS last 7 overall and 1-4 ATS their last 5 road games. V'tech can play, as evidenced by their road wins over Clemson, Miami/Florida and Wake Forest so understand this team can get after it. They are in a great revenge spot having gotten drilled by Duke in the first meeting January 4th getting outscored in the 2nd half by 17. Virginia Tech is a rock solid 10-3 ATS last 13 as an underdog and I truly believe it's a different story at home today as the Hokies punch Duke right in the mouth and get the cover.
Chris Jordan Saturday Winners ...
600♦ UTAH STATE - Let it be known, in most other situations, I’d think about siding with a team like the Aggies, solely because they just clinched the Western Athletic Conference title, and really have nothing else to play for before the tournament. With the No. 1 seed wrapped up, you’d think this is the perfect time to rest. But there are three intangibles that easily override that one factor. One, we have USU coach Stew Morrill, and there is no time to rest on laurels under his regime. Two, this is a meaningful clash for the Aggies, who still have something to prove against the stalwart Wolfpack. Three, this is a pick’em game in which we need only pick the winner, and no matter where the game is being played - this season, right now, these players, this team … all Utah State.
Fact is, while the Aggies appear ready for the postseason with a well-balanced rotation that can play at either end of the floor, the Wolfpack come into their own Lawlor Events Center with their hands full defensively and struggling offensively. Not exactly the matchup many thought of way back when, as this was the presumed showdown for the regular-season title. Again, the Aggies have wrapped it up, but they’ll still want to deliver the knock-out statement. And with an 11-point win in the first meeting notched on the belt, I don’t see how this confident roster duplicates the effort and basically secures the win – which is all we need.
Nevada has looked bleak from the field in its last three games, connecting on just 37.9 percent of its shots from the field, and now it has to try to play keep up with a Utah State team that is shooting 49.9 percent from the wood the entire season – the fourth-best shooting effort in the nation.
And don’t worry about a letdown, as Morrill is a veteran coach who isn’t about to let his troops forget Nevada is the premier team in the league – not his Aggies. That should spark some intensity. Nevada has been the dominant team in the WAC for however number of years now, but the Aggies can taste that statement. They know that regardless of the regular-season title they clinched two nights ago, the changing of the guard relies on this contest. A loss means nothing, in terms of seeding. But perception is reality, and the Aggies want everyone to know there’s a new sheriff in conference.
Give me Utah State tonight, as the Wolfpack step aside, for now, to make room for the WAC’s newest top dawg.
200♦ CALIFORNIA - The overtime-win over Southern Cal was an important win for the Golden Bears. It was also a lucky one. And there’s no doubt in my head the only reason it went into overtime was because the Bears became complacent with the lead, counted it as a win and ultimately was looking ahead to this game. After all, Cal is 2-0 against conference-leading Washington and 1-0 against 11th-ranked Arizona State. But there’s something about beating UCLA that means more than anything else.
And the same way the Golden Bears avenged an earlier loss to the Trojans in Los Angeles, by posting their seventh victory over a team rated in the top 50 of the RPI computer, I expect them to leave it all on the Haas Pavilion floor and avenge an earlier-season loss that was one of only two games they’ve lost by 15 or more.
Trust me, when Cal is running on all cylinders, it is unstoppable. And there is no other team in the Pac-10 better when playing at home than the Bears. They come into this game with a 16-1 record at home while the Bruins are no better than average with a 5-4 mark when toting a suitcase in hand. Give me the value in this one, as Cal emerges tonight with the one win it wants more than any other.
Drew Gordon Today's Games... 1. 200,000♦ Virginia Tech
2. 50,000♦ Creighton
3. 50,000♦ Oklahoma State
1. Virginia Tech- Hokies got back on the bubble with an impressive outright win at Clemson Wednesday, and I expect the same kind of energy (if not more) in this critical ACC rematch with Duke this afternoon. The knock on the Hokies was their recent road play (0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS away prior to Wednesday), but taking down Clemson was a big step forward, and sets them up perfectly today in Blacksburg, where they're just as good as Duke on both ends of the court. But let's dig a little deeper...
Before we get into match ups, its important to note that the Blue Devils handed the Hokies their worst loss of the season, a 69-44 drubbing in Durham back on January 4th, and now its payback time! Revenge is a key factor in capping any college game, but this one in particular, because Duke routed a Tech team that was still finding its way, and they learned a lot because of it. Need proof? The Hokies reeled off 5 straight ACC wins after that loss, and now things come full circle, as Va. Tech shows the Dukies just how much better they've gotten today.
As far as match ups are concerned, I'm looking for the Hokies Big 3, Delaney, Vassallo, and Allen to lead the way, as usual, but with a twist. I remember their last meeting well, and if you saw that game, you know Delaney played well, but Vassallo and Allen were just awful. Everyone is allowed an off-day, but rest-assured, the Hokies Big 3 will come to play this afternoon, especially Vassallo, who's really stepped it up of late (20+ ppg in 4 of last 5 games).
On the flip side, while Duke has won 3 straight, forgive me if I'm not impressed by them winning games they're supposed to win. Looking into the numbers, its clear their defense has fallen off considerably, allowing 81 ppg on a mind-boggling 55% shooting over their last 5 games! Guys, needless to say, its extremely difficult to cover as a road chalk (against a desperate opponent), if you're going to play NO defense!
Bottom line, while Duke may still get the W here, I wouldn't be surprised in the least, if Virginia Tech pulls off another outright upset here. They've got the home court, they've got a HUGE motivational edge (on the bubble, revenge), and are playing with a lot of confidence after winning at Clemson. Look for the Hokies to circle the wagons at home, and grab the cash in this critical ACC match up.
Take Virginia Tech plus the points over Duke as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Creighton- Huge game for the Bluejays, who sit at 13-4 in conference, tied with Northern Iowa for the top spot. A win here guarantees them no less than a co-conference championship, and that in and of itslef, is obviously a HUGE motivator. Look for the Jays to come out fired up, but that's hardly the only reason I like Creighton here...
Redbirds-backers cannot be happy with their team's play of late, losers of two in a row SUATS. Fact is, they're playing like a team that really has nothing to play for, in that, Illinois State has already locked up # 3 seed. So really guys, what's the motivation for this Redbirds team this afternoon?
Speaking of motivation, you know we can't talk about this contest without mentioning the fact the Bluejays have lost 4 in a row SUATS in this series, including an ugly 86-64 loss at Redbird Arena back in early January. I've said once and I'll say it again, payback is a bitch, and the Redbirds are about to find that out the hard way today.
So what's the difference in this match up? Well clearly, the Bluejays are playing great ball, winners of 9 in a row since they lost to Drake badly at home. We've seen this Creighton offense take off, averaging 76 ppg at home this season, and 78 ppg on nealry 50% shooting over their last 5 games! While both defenses are comparable statistically, there's no question the Bluejays offense has a huge edge.
Finally, one of the main reasons the Redbirds are suddenly struggling has been the drop-off in play of one of their best players (and a Creighton-killer in the past) Osiris Eldridge. He's averaged 19 ppg in his last 5 meetings with Creighton, but of late, has been slumping bad, averaging 11 ppg on 33% shooting over his last 5 games. Note, Eldridge is just 4 of 25 over his last 2 games, and breaking that slump against a very good, and highly motivated Bluejays defense is easier said than done. In the end, the Bluejays can lock up a co-conference championship, and coupled with the revenge factor and match ups issues mentioned above, look for the Bluejays to deliver the solid home win and cover this afternoon.
Take Creighton over Illinois State in this college hoops match up.
3. Oklahoma State- Good spot to back the Cowboys, who have several strong edges in this contest, but let's start with the situational aspects...
We all knew the Longhorns needed to rebound after an ugly loss at Texas A&M, and they did that by winning two critical home games. Now however, one has to question their focus going back out on the road... In other words, I smell a letdown here for the Longhorns, as matching the energy of the Cowboys in Stillwater coming off those two wins is easier said than done.
Speaking of Stillwater, there's no question it remains one of the toughest places to play in the Big 12, with the Cowboys going 12-2 SU and 5-4 ATS there this season. Herein lies the problem for the Longhorns, as the Cowboys offense is excellent at home, burning up the nets averaging 88 ppg on 47% shooting (incl. almost 40% from 3-point land)! For as good as Texas has been, their offense on the road has been average at best, averaging 69 ppg on 42% shooting (incl. just 25% from long range).
Clearly, Okie State has the edge offensively, and the 'Horns recent road losses at Texas A&M (66 points scored) and Nebraska (55 points scored), show why I like the Cowboys in this contest... Texas will not be able to keep pace. Defensively, we'll give the edge to Texas, but not by much, especially of late, allowing 76 ppg on 48% shooting over their last 5 games (not nearly good enough to win in this contest).
Finally, once again, we see another revenge contest here (a lot of payback going around today). The Longhorns mauled the Cowboys 99-74 in Austin back on Feb. 10th, and you best believe Okie State will be ready for the rematch today at home. True, Texas has won the last 6 meetings between these two teams, but only one of those 6 games was in Stillwater, and that one was a razor close 63-61 Texas win, but Okie State cover. The Cowboys finally make it over the hump, get their revenge AND add a much needed win to their resume this afternoon.
Take Oklahoma State over Texas in this college hoops match up.
Jeff Benton Saturday's College Hoops winners ... 30 Dime: NOTRE DAME (plus the points vs. UConn)
10 Dime: ARIZONA (plus the points vs. Washington)
5 Dime: FLORIDA STATE (plus the points vs. Clemson)
Notre Dame
Without question, Notre Dame has to go down as one of the most disappointing teams in college hoops this season, right along side Big East rival Georgetown and Tennessee from the SEC. And without question, UConn is one of the Top 5 teams in the country and a legitimate national championship contender. All that said, this line is seriously inflated, and it’s inflated for a few reasons.
First and foremost is the fact that Notre Dame is coming off a shaky five-point home win over Rutgers, failing to cover as a 14-point favorite, making the Irish 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games, 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games and 4-11 ATS in Big East play. However, Notre Dame is playing much better lately, winning four of their last five games, including a 33-point home blowout of Louisville and a 19-point romp last Saturday at Providence – the same Providence that just upset top-ranked Pitt at home on Wednesday.
Another reason this line is inflated is because Georgetown is coming off one of its most impressive performances of the season, a 93-82 win at No. 8 Marquette, which had previously been unbeaten at home. However, prior to that contest, the Huskies had failed to cover a pointspread in three straight games overall and four of five. In fact, UConn is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games and 3-5 ATS when hosting Big East foes this season. Going back to before the start of conference play, UConn has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 at home. Not only that, but check out UConn’s pointspread record as a big favorite: 3-7 ATS when laying double digits.
Lastly, this number is jacked up because UConn wemt to South Bent a month ago and took out the Irish 69-61 as a two-point road favorite. However, the Huskies had Jerome Dyson that day, and he went off for 15 points, nine rebounds, three assists and two steals in 35 minutes of action. As we know, Dyson is done for the season with a knee injury, so that’s a big advantage that the Irish don’t have to deal with him today.
Notre Dame has not won at Connecticut in years, but the Irish have been competitive there recently. They lost by six points last year, by one point in overtime in 2006, by 14 in 2005 and 11 in 2004. If you apply this pointspread today to any of those previous four games, well, Notre Dame would’ve gone 3-1 ATS.
Bottom line: I don’t expect Notre Dame to win, but the team has shown life lately and I do believe we’ll get the Irish’s best effort. And given how UConn has really struggled to cover these big numbers at home – and given that the Huskies are shooting just 66 percent from the foul line in their last five games and had been held under 70 points in six straight games before Wednesday – gimme the value with the quality underdog.
Arizona
The Arizona Wildcats have definitely struggled on the road in Pac-10 play, with only two victories, both against the league’s weakest teams (Oregon and Oregon State). And they were dreadful in the second half on Thursday at Washington State, turning a 29-26 halftime lead into a 69-53 loss after getting outscored 43-24 in the final 20 minutes. Prior to that effort, though, the Wildcats had been playing outstanding basketball. They won seven straight games from Jan. 24-Feb. 14 – including a 106-97 rout of Washington as a one-point home underdog – before losing a buzzer-beater at archrival Arizona State on Sunday, falling 70-68 as an eight-point underdog.
In fact, before losing at Wazu, Arizona had cashed in seven of eight games, including three straight as an underdog. Meanwhile, Washington hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire lately. The Huskies needed overtime to beat Arizona State at home Thursday (73-70), the same Arizona State that barely held off Arizona at home on Sunday, and last weekend Washington fell apart in the second half against UCLA (85-76 loss) and needed a big surge in the final five minutes to get past USC (60-51).
But this play more or less comes down to the matchup, as both of these teams like to run up and down the floor, as evidenced by the 106-97 shootout in Tucson a month ago. In fact, all four of Washington’s conference losses this season have come against opponents – Arizona, UCLA and Cal (twice) – that love the up-tempo pace that the Huskies play. And I believe with pure scorers like Chase Budinger (17.5 points, 6.5 rebounds per game) and stud forward Jordan Hill (17.9 points, 11 rebounds per game), the Wildcats will keep pace with Washington all day today.
In fact, just look how Arizona has been shooting the ball of late, averaging 75 ppg on 49 percent shooting in the last five games, including a blistering 38.4 percent from beyond the arc. By comparison, Washington is averaging a few more points than Arizona in its last five (78.2 ppg), but shooting 45.8 ppg including a woeful 31 percent on three-pointers.
The Huskies are just 3-4 ATS in Pac-10 home games this season, with two of the covers coming against Oregon and Oregon State. Meanwhile, Arizona has cashed in four of five games as an underdog of five points or more, and the Wildcats are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five series meetings, scoring 96, 84, 84 and 106 points in the four victories! Grab the big points, and don’t be surprised by an outright upset.
Florida State
I am totally and completely baffled by this pointspread. You’ve got two teams with identical 8-5 conference records and near-identical overall records (Clemson is 22-5; Florida State is 21-7). You’ve got Clemson coming off an 80-77 home loss to Virginia Tech as a 10-point favorite, one that’s split its last six games both SU and ATS. On the other hand, you’ve got the Seminoles coming off a close 72-67 road loss at Boston College, but they’re still 5-2 SU in their last seven games and 8-3-1 ATS in conference play.
Plus, Florida State has won three straight home games and is 4-2 in ACC home games, with the only losses coming against North Carolina (80-77) and Duke (66-58), two teams that are quite superior to Clemson. And on top of all that is this beauty: Earlier this month, Florida State went to Death Valley … and beat the Tigers 65-61 outright as a nine-point underdog!
So how in the hell can Clemson, which is just 3-2 SU and ATS in ACC road games, be favored in this contest today? Perhaps it’s a big fat trap, and if it is, then I’m a big fat sucker. But I just don’t see it. After all, Clemson’s defense has sprung a leak lately, giving up 75.8 points per game in the last five outings on 46.8 percent shooting overall and 47.3 percent from three-point range. And on the road, the Tigers give up 79.3 ppg on 49.4 percent shooting, quite a difference from what the Seminoles do defensively at home (62.1 ppg allowed on 37.3 percent shooting).
In fact, look at the point totals Clemson has allowed in its five ACC roadies (73 to Georgia Tech; 85 to lowly Virginia; 77 to Boston College; 82 to Virginia Tech and 94 to North Carolina). All five of those opponents shot 48 percent from the field or better, with four eclipsing 50 percent! Throw in the fact that the Seminoles are on a plethora of pointspread streaks (18-8-2 overall, 20-6-1 as an underdog, 6-0-1 after an ATS loss, 12-4-2 in ACC play), and I’ll jump all over the undervalued home team in this one.
Karl Garrett 30 DIMER - WASHINGTON....20 DIMER - OKLAHOMA STATE....10 DIMER - ALABAMA 30 DIMER - WASHINGTON HUSKIES - 3PM
Washington gutted out an overtime win on Thursday over Arizona State, but they did fail to cover the impost. I don't think we will be seeing overtime today, as reality looks like it has settled in with Arizona - they Wildcats are good, but their 16-point loss at Wash State was the loss # 2 in a row, # 3 is most defitnitely on the horizon today!
This is a revenge spot for the Huskies who allowed 69-points in the second half of their 97-106 loss at Tuscon at the end of January. The host has now won and covered the last 4 series meetings.
U-Dub is a solid 15-1 straight up at home, and 9-5 against the spread in their lined home dates.
Arizona has struggled away from home at just 5-6 against the spread, and they will stuggle here today.
Lay it, as this one turns into a rout!
20 DIMER - OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS - 6PM
Looks tempting to back the Longhorns in this one, as Texas has won 6 straight in this series, including a 99-74 romp at home just over 2 weeks ago.
Since that loss, Oklahoma State has won and covered 4 in a row to move to 18-9 on the year. A win today would go a long way on the Cowboys Big Dance resume.
Oklahoma State is a solid 12-2 straight up at home, and it is just not easy to win in Stillwater for anyone.
You can expect the home crowd to be rocking today, and you can also expect the Cowboys to take down the Longhorns, and stop a 6 game series slide.
G-Man taking the Pokes.
10 DIMER - ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE - 4PM
Both schools stand at 15-12 this year, and while Ole Miss has been murder at home - 13-2 straight up, 8-3 against the spread - I have a feeling this game is going down to the wire.
The Tide did eek out the 76-73 home win over the Rebels on January 21st, as Alabama is now 4-2 straight up the last 6 series meetings.
Ole Miss is off a second half collapse at Auburn, and I believe that loss will have a lingering effect today. It may not linger the full 40 minutes, but expect it to be present early on, and for Alabama to take advantage plus the points.
Roll Tide!
Michael Cannon Saturday's Plays...
30 Dime –
EAST CAROLINA
10 Dime –
ROCKETS
5 Dime -
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
I will be back by 11:00 am eastern with my analysis.
Sports Gambling Hotline CHARLOTTE SERVICE For Saturday, Top-Rated 3♦ on Wake Forest minus the points. Bonus 2♦s on Dayton minus the points, and a 2♦ on Duke minus the points.
MIAMI SERVICE For Saturday, Top-Rated 3♦ on Vanderbilt as a small favorite. Bonus 2♦s on Gonzaga minus the points, and a NBA 2♦ on Chicago at a near pick at home.
Tony Weston SATURDAY'S PLAYS 35 Dime Arizona State
15 Dime Villanova
Arizona State at Washington State
ARIZONA STATE - After dropping a couple of games SU and ATS back-to-back last month, the Arizona State Sun Devils have been on a tear as of late.
Arizona State has covered in five of its last six games, going 5-1 SU in that stretch, and has covered in five straight games on the road, going 4-1 SU in that stretch.
Tonight, the Sun Devils will continue their winning ways and get over on Pac-10 rival Washington State.
Depending on where you go ASU is installed as about a 1-point favorite and will blow right past that as they battle a Cougars team that’s covered in only three of 12 home games this season. For the year, Washington State is only 3-5 ATS at home against the Pac-10.
ASU, on the other hand, is on a five-game ATS road winning streak and has covered in five of its last six against the Pac-10, beating its opponents, on average, 65.6-59.3.
The Sun Devils will keep up its winning trends on the road and against the Pac-10 with an easy win over the Cougars tonight. Take ASU on the road in this one.
Georgetown at Villanova
VILLANOVA - When you think of Big East basketball, it’s not out of the ordinary to think of teams like UConn, Louisville and Pittsburgh.
But almost quietly, the Villanova Wildcats are making a push in the grinder of a conference that is the Big East. Villanova is only 2 1/2 games behind Connecticut and is sitting at 11-4 SU this season conference action.
’Nova has covered in nine of its last 12 games against the Big East and will cover one more time today against visiting Georgetown, which is only 8-20 ATS its last 28 in conference action.
Coming into this game the Wildcats have covered in five of their last six home games and have been especially strong on Saturdays, covering in six of their last seven games in Saturday.
Now they battle a Georgetown team that that has struggled mightily this season, going only 7-14-1 ATS this year, including only two covers in their last 15 games overall.
On the road the Hoyas have been equally as bad, covering only once in seven games away from home.
Against these Wildcats, Georgetown has not had much more luck, going only 4-9 ATS its last 13 games against Villanova.
The Wildcats will continue their dominance against Georgetown and get over easily today. Take Villanova at home in this Big East showdown
DCI
NCAAB
02/28/09 Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 3296-1154 (.741)
ATS: 1413-1364 (.509)
ATS Vary Units: 4088-4041 (.503)
Over/Under: 1381-1362 (.503)
Over/Under Vary Units: 2469-2306 (.517)
Atlantic 10 Conference
CHARLOTTE 81, Fordham 60
DAYTON 63, Temple 60
RICHMOND 73, George Washington 63
Atlantic Coast Conference
Duke 77, VIRGINIA TECH 71
FLORIDA STATE 72, Clemson 69
NORTH CAROLINA 96, Georgia Tech 72
Wake Forest 82, VIRGINIA 76
Atlantic Sun Conference
BELMONT 78, Jacksonville 72
EAST TENNESSEE STATE 83, Mercer 76
LIPSCOMB 76, North Florida 57
USC UPSTATE 66, Kennesaw State 52
Big 12 Conference
BAYLOR 77, Colorado 66
KANSAS STATE 66, Nebraska 60
Oklahoma 89, TEXAS TECH 78
OKLAHOMA STATE 81, Texas 78
TEXAS A&M 69, Iowa State 56
Big East Conference
CONNECTICUT 83, Notre Dame 68
Pittsburgh 80, SETON HALL 69
St. John's 68, DePAUL 66
VILLANOVA 78, Georgetown 65
Big Sky Conference
IDAHO STATE 70, Northern Arizona 62
Portland State 71, EASTERN WASHINGTON 66
WEBER STATE 78, Sacramento State 48
Big South Conference
GARDNER-WEBB 80, Charleston Southern 72
HIGH POINT 87, Vmi 85
RADFORD 79, Liberty 72
UNC Asheville 70, PRESBYTERIAN 66
WINTHROP 67, Coastal Carolina 62
Big Ten Conference
NORTHWESTERN 56, Iowa 51
PENN STATE 68, Indiana 53
PURDUE 63, Ohio State 58
Big West Conference
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE 78, Long Beach State 72
Pacific 66, CAL POLY 60
UC IRVINE 60, UC Riverside 55
UC SANTA BARBARA 75, UC Davis 66
Colonial Athletic Association
DELAWARE 72, James Madison 71
Drexel 58, WILLIAM & MARY 54
GEORGE MASON 72, Towson 55
HOFSTRA 82, UNC Wilmington 67
NORTHEASTERN 58, Old Dominion 56
VCU 70, Georgia State 56
Conference USA
Houston 76, RICE 70
MARSHALL 74, Ucf 73
MEMPHIS 81, Southern Miss 49
Tulsa 66, SMU 55
Uab 80, EAST CAROLINA 68
Utep 72, TULANE 69
Horizon League
BUTLER 62, Cleveland State 52
Green Bay 59, WRIGHT STATE 58
VALPARAISO 64, Youngstown State 60
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 62, DETROIT 57
Ivy League
Cornell 73, HARVARD 64
DARTMOUTH 60, Columbia 57
PENN 68, Brown 61
Yale 54, PRINCETON 51
Mid-American Conference
Ball State 59, NORTHERN ILLINOIS 58
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 61, Eastern Michigan 52
TOLEDO 57, Western Michigan 55
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
COPPIN STATE 69, Umes 53
Hampton 61, NORFOLK STATE 57
MORGAN STATE 65, Delaware State 50
NORTH CAROLINA A&T 69, Howard 60
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE 62, Bethune-Cookman 57
Missouri Valley Conference
BRADLEY 64, Drake 57
CREIGHTON 73, Illinois State 62
INDIANA STATE 63, Missouri State 56
NORTHERN IOWA 66, Evansville 59
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 59, Wichita State 56
Mountain West Conference
BYU 76, Utah 69
New Mexico 78, COLORADO STATE 66
San Diego State 61, TCU 56
Wyoming 71, AIR FORCE 65
Northeast Conference
Fairleigh Dickinson vs. SAINT FRANCIS (PA.): TOO CLOSE TO CALL
QUINNIPIAC 67, Central Connecticut State 61
ROBERT MORRIS 69, Mount St. Mary's 63
ST. FRANCIS (N.Y.) 71, Long Island 68
Wagner 66, MONMOUTH 63
Ohio Valley Conference
AUSTIN PEAY 92, Southeast Missouri State 70
JACKSONVILLE STATE 76, Tennessee Tech 71
MURRAY STATE 69, Eastern Kentucky 63
TENNESSEE STATE 75, Eastern Illinois 69
TENNESSEE-MARTIN 78, Morehead State 70
Pacific-10 Conference
Arizona State 54, WASHINGTON STATE 53
Ucla 73, CALIFORNIA 72
Usc vs. STANFORD: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
WASHINGTON 79, Arizona 71
Patriot League
American 68, LAFAYETTE 54
BUCKNELL 60, Army 58
HOLY CROSS 67, Lehigh 51
NAVY 67, Colgate 55
Southeastern Conference
Auburn vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
KENTUCKY 74, Lsu 72
MISSISSIPPI 78, Alabama 70
South Carolina 74, VANDERBILT 72
Southern Conference
APPALACHIAN STATE 71, Samford 66
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON 82, Furman 66
DAVIDSON 91, Georgia Southern 64
Elon vs. UNC GREENSBORO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
THE CITADEL 71, Wofford 63
WESTERN CAROLINA 82, Chattanooga 80
Southland Conference
NICHOLLS STATE 61, McNeese State 52
Sam Houston State 79, UT ARLINGTON 77
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 73, Central Arkansas 59
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI 61, Stephen F. Austin 59
TEXAS STATE 91, Northwestern State 80
UT SAN ANTONIO 81, Lamar 77
Southwestern Athletic Conference
ALABAMA A&M 69, Texas Southern 66
ALABAMA STATE 74, Prairie View A&M 61
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF 73, Grambling State 59
Jackson State 75, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE 69
SOUTHERN 78, Alcorn State 69
Sunmmit League
IPFW 68, Southern Utah 63
Iupui 60, WESTERN ILLINOIS 55
North Dakota State vs. ORAL ROBERTS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
OAKLAND 83, Umkc 61
South Dakota State vs. CENTENARY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Sun Belt Conference
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 69, Florida Atlantic 61
LOUISIANA-MONROE 68, Arkansas State 64
TROY 81, South Alabama 76
UALR 73, Louisiana-Lafayette 58
Western Kentucky 71, MIDDLE TENNESSEE 68
West Coast Conference
Gonzaga 69, SAN DIEGO 57
PEPPERDINE 69, San Francisco 64
Saint Mary's 74, LOYOLA MARYMOUNT 53
SANTA CLARA 65, Portland 63
Western Athletic Conference
FRESNO STATE 68, Idaho 65
LOUISIANA TECH 68, Boise State 62
SAN JOSE STATE 65, Hawai'i 61
Utah State 66, NEVADA 63
Non-Conference
CHICAGO STATE 86, Texas-Pan American 73
Longwood 83, NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL 73
SACRED HEART 74, Bryant 56
UTAH VALLEY 69, New Jersey Tech 44
WINSTON-SALEM STATE 62, Florida A&M 59
NCAAB
02/28/09 Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 3296-1154 (.741)
ATS: 1413-1364 (.509)
ATS Vary Units: 4088-4041 (.503)
Over/Under: 1381-1362 (.503)
Over/Under Vary Units: 2469-2306 (.517)
Atlantic 10 Conference
CHARLOTTE 81, Fordham 60
DAYTON 63, Temple 60
RICHMOND 73, George Washington 63
Atlantic Coast Conference
Duke 77, VIRGINIA TECH 71
FLORIDA STATE 72, Clemson 69
NORTH CAROLINA 96, Georgia Tech 72
Wake Forest 82, VIRGINIA 76
Atlantic Sun Conference
BELMONT 78, Jacksonville 72
EAST TENNESSEE STATE 83, Mercer 76
LIPSCOMB 76, North Florida 57
USC UPSTATE 66, Kennesaw State 52
Big 12 Conference
BAYLOR 77, Colorado 66
KANSAS STATE 66, Nebraska 60
Oklahoma 89, TEXAS TECH 78
OKLAHOMA STATE 81, Texas 78
TEXAS A&M 69, Iowa State 56
Big East Conference
CONNECTICUT 83, Notre Dame 68
Pittsburgh 80, SETON HALL 69
St. John's 68, DePAUL 66
VILLANOVA 78, Georgetown 65
Big Sky Conference
IDAHO STATE 70, Northern Arizona 62
Portland State 71, EASTERN WASHINGTON 66
WEBER STATE 78, Sacramento State 48
Big South Conference
GARDNER-WEBB 80, Charleston Southern 72
HIGH POINT 87, Vmi 85
RADFORD 79, Liberty 72
UNC Asheville 70, PRESBYTERIAN 66
WINTHROP 67, Coastal Carolina 62
Big Ten Conference
NORTHWESTERN 56, Iowa 51
PENN STATE 68, Indiana 53
PURDUE 63, Ohio State 58
Big West Conference
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE 78, Long Beach State 72
Pacific 66, CAL POLY 60
UC IRVINE 60, UC Riverside 55
UC SANTA BARBARA 75, UC Davis 66
Colonial Athletic Association
DELAWARE 72, James Madison 71
Drexel 58, WILLIAM & MARY 54
GEORGE MASON 72, Towson 55
HOFSTRA 82, UNC Wilmington 67
NORTHEASTERN 58, Old Dominion 56
VCU 70, Georgia State 56
Conference USA
Houston 76, RICE 70
MARSHALL 74, Ucf 73
MEMPHIS 81, Southern Miss 49
Tulsa 66, SMU 55
Uab 80, EAST CAROLINA 68
Utep 72, TULANE 69
Horizon League
BUTLER 62, Cleveland State 52
Green Bay 59, WRIGHT STATE 58
VALPARAISO 64, Youngstown State 60
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 62, DETROIT 57
Ivy League
Cornell 73, HARVARD 64
DARTMOUTH 60, Columbia 57
PENN 68, Brown 61
Yale 54, PRINCETON 51
Mid-American Conference
Ball State 59, NORTHERN ILLINOIS 58
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 61, Eastern Michigan 52
TOLEDO 57, Western Michigan 55
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
COPPIN STATE 69, Umes 53
Hampton 61, NORFOLK STATE 57
MORGAN STATE 65, Delaware State 50
NORTH CAROLINA A&T 69, Howard 60
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE 62, Bethune-Cookman 57
Missouri Valley Conference
BRADLEY 64, Drake 57
CREIGHTON 73, Illinois State 62
INDIANA STATE 63, Missouri State 56
NORTHERN IOWA 66, Evansville 59
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 59, Wichita State 56
Mountain West Conference
BYU 76, Utah 69
New Mexico 78, COLORADO STATE 66
San Diego State 61, TCU 56
Wyoming 71, AIR FORCE 65
Northeast Conference
Fairleigh Dickinson vs. SAINT FRANCIS (PA.): TOO CLOSE TO CALL
QUINNIPIAC 67, Central Connecticut State 61
ROBERT MORRIS 69, Mount St. Mary's 63
ST. FRANCIS (N.Y.) 71, Long Island 68
Wagner 66, MONMOUTH 63
Ohio Valley Conference
AUSTIN PEAY 92, Southeast Missouri State 70
JACKSONVILLE STATE 76, Tennessee Tech 71
MURRAY STATE 69, Eastern Kentucky 63
TENNESSEE STATE 75, Eastern Illinois 69
TENNESSEE-MARTIN 78, Morehead State 70
Pacific-10 Conference
Arizona State 54, WASHINGTON STATE 53
Ucla 73, CALIFORNIA 72
Usc vs. STANFORD: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
WASHINGTON 79, Arizona 71
Patriot League
American 68, LAFAYETTE 54
BUCKNELL 60, Army 58
HOLY CROSS 67, Lehigh 51
NAVY 67, Colgate 55
Southeastern Conference
Auburn vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
KENTUCKY 74, Lsu 72
MISSISSIPPI 78, Alabama 70
South Carolina 74, VANDERBILT 72
Southern Conference
APPALACHIAN STATE 71, Samford 66
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON 82, Furman 66
DAVIDSON 91, Georgia Southern 64
Elon vs. UNC GREENSBORO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
THE CITADEL 71, Wofford 63
WESTERN CAROLINA 82, Chattanooga 80
Southland Conference
NICHOLLS STATE 61, McNeese State 52
Sam Houston State 79, UT ARLINGTON 77
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 73, Central Arkansas 59
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI 61, Stephen F. Austin 59
TEXAS STATE 91, Northwestern State 80
UT SAN ANTONIO 81, Lamar 77
Southwestern Athletic Conference
ALABAMA A&M 69, Texas Southern 66
ALABAMA STATE 74, Prairie View A&M 61
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF 73, Grambling State 59
Jackson State 75, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE 69
SOUTHERN 78, Alcorn State 69
Sunmmit League
IPFW 68, Southern Utah 63
Iupui 60, WESTERN ILLINOIS 55
North Dakota State vs. ORAL ROBERTS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
OAKLAND 83, Umkc 61
South Dakota State vs. CENTENARY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Sun Belt Conference
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 69, Florida Atlantic 61
LOUISIANA-MONROE 68, Arkansas State 64
TROY 81, South Alabama 76
UALR 73, Louisiana-Lafayette 58
Western Kentucky 71, MIDDLE TENNESSEE 68
West Coast Conference
Gonzaga 69, SAN DIEGO 57
PEPPERDINE 69, San Francisco 64
Saint Mary's 74, LOYOLA MARYMOUNT 53
SANTA CLARA 65, Portland 63
Western Athletic Conference
FRESNO STATE 68, Idaho 65
LOUISIANA TECH 68, Boise State 62
SAN JOSE STATE 65, Hawai'i 61
Utah State 66, NEVADA 63
Non-Conference
CHICAGO STATE 86, Texas-Pan American 73
Longwood 83, NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL 73
SACRED HEART 74, Bryant 56
UTAH VALLEY 69, New Jersey Tech 44
WINSTON-SALEM STATE 62, Florida A&M 59
