Matt Fargo
New Mexico at Colorado State
Prediction: New Mexico
This is a rather big line but there is a lot on the line for the Lobos. A win here and a loss by Utah at BYU, which is more than possible, sets up a chance for New Mexico to grab a share of the MVC Championship as it hosts Utah on Tuesday. The Lobos will likely know what the Utes did since their game starts four hours before the game at Colorado St. A Utah loss will provide a lot more motivation for the Lobos but even if Utah does win, it is not over as each team still has one remaining game following their Tuesday matchup. This is the second meeting this season between New Mexico and Colorado St. and the Lobos easily won that first matchup by 18 points. That does set up a revenge spot for the Rams however, sometimes revenge is not enough as teams simply have huge advantages over other teams. That is the case with New Mexico who has won the last four meetings including three straight dating back to the start of last season by 30, 19 and 18 points. Going back further, the Lobos have won 24 of the last 27 meetings. In that first matchup this season, the Lobos scored 25 points off 20 turnovers by Colorado St. and that is no aberration. New Mexico is just 4-6 on the road this season but it has played better than that record indicates. All four of New Mexico?s conference losses have come on the road, by a combined margin of just 19 points (4.8 ppg). Colorado St. has not posted a much better record at home as it is just 6-7. There is only one quality win of the bunch and that was a two-point victory over UNLV back in January. The other three conference wins came against 5-9 TCU and 0-13 Air Force twice. The Rams are coming off a tough loss at home against bitter rival Wyoming so even though it is senior night, this game will be a tough one to get up for. That loss virtually locked up the requirement to play in the MWC Tournament play-in game which it was trying to avoid. A win here really does nothing now unless a lot of things fall into place. Well, yeah, I'm mad, said usually unflappable Colorado St. head coach Tim Miles. This won't go away soon. It's winnable. It's Wyoming. It's the play-in game. It's a lot of stuff I think that tells the story of how big that game really was for the Rams and how much they missed out on a good opportunity. New Mexico is one of the more athletic teams in the Mountain West Conference. The Lobos want to force an up-tempo pace, and their full-court defense is capable of disrupting everyone as it did in the first meeting against Colorado St. On the season, the Lobos are allowing a 0.88 assist/turnover ratio while the Rams have a ratio on offense of just 0.82. Those numbers tend to change in road and home situations and that is the case here but not much. The New Mexico defensive ratio goes to 0.99 in its road games which is still extremely solid considering it is under the breakeven point. As for the Rams, their offensive ratio actually drops at home to 0.75 so there will not be an advantage of the venue switch for this one. Another huge advantage is the efficiency comparisons. The Lobos are +7.9 in offensive efficiency, which is extremely solid as anything more than a +5 advantage is really big. In overall efficiency, which takes into account many other factors including defense, turnover percentage and offensive rebounding on both ends, New Mexico is +15.9. To put that into context, of the 91 games on Saturday, there are only 15 games where a team has a higher advantage in efficiency and those games have some pretty hefty spreads. This one is very doable considering that the two road conference wins by New Mexico both came by more than this number. 5* New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico at Colorado State
Prediction: New Mexico
This is a rather big line but there is a lot on the line for the Lobos. A win here and a loss by Utah at BYU, which is more than possible, sets up a chance for New Mexico to grab a share of the MVC Championship as it hosts Utah on Tuesday. The Lobos will likely know what the Utes did since their game starts four hours before the game at Colorado St. A Utah loss will provide a lot more motivation for the Lobos but even if Utah does win, it is not over as each team still has one remaining game following their Tuesday matchup. This is the second meeting this season between New Mexico and Colorado St. and the Lobos easily won that first matchup by 18 points. That does set up a revenge spot for the Rams however, sometimes revenge is not enough as teams simply have huge advantages over other teams. That is the case with New Mexico who has won the last four meetings including three straight dating back to the start of last season by 30, 19 and 18 points. Going back further, the Lobos have won 24 of the last 27 meetings. In that first matchup this season, the Lobos scored 25 points off 20 turnovers by Colorado St. and that is no aberration. New Mexico is just 4-6 on the road this season but it has played better than that record indicates. All four of New Mexico?s conference losses have come on the road, by a combined margin of just 19 points (4.8 ppg). Colorado St. has not posted a much better record at home as it is just 6-7. There is only one quality win of the bunch and that was a two-point victory over UNLV back in January. The other three conference wins came against 5-9 TCU and 0-13 Air Force twice. The Rams are coming off a tough loss at home against bitter rival Wyoming so even though it is senior night, this game will be a tough one to get up for. That loss virtually locked up the requirement to play in the MWC Tournament play-in game which it was trying to avoid. A win here really does nothing now unless a lot of things fall into place. Well, yeah, I'm mad, said usually unflappable Colorado St. head coach Tim Miles. This won't go away soon. It's winnable. It's Wyoming. It's the play-in game. It's a lot of stuff I think that tells the story of how big that game really was for the Rams and how much they missed out on a good opportunity. New Mexico is one of the more athletic teams in the Mountain West Conference. The Lobos want to force an up-tempo pace, and their full-court defense is capable of disrupting everyone as it did in the first meeting against Colorado St. On the season, the Lobos are allowing a 0.88 assist/turnover ratio while the Rams have a ratio on offense of just 0.82. Those numbers tend to change in road and home situations and that is the case here but not much. The New Mexico defensive ratio goes to 0.99 in its road games which is still extremely solid considering it is under the breakeven point. As for the Rams, their offensive ratio actually drops at home to 0.75 so there will not be an advantage of the venue switch for this one. Another huge advantage is the efficiency comparisons. The Lobos are +7.9 in offensive efficiency, which is extremely solid as anything more than a +5 advantage is really big. In overall efficiency, which takes into account many other factors including defense, turnover percentage and offensive rebounding on both ends, New Mexico is +15.9. To put that into context, of the 91 games on Saturday, there are only 15 games where a team has a higher advantage in efficiency and those games have some pretty hefty spreads. This one is very doable considering that the two road conference wins by New Mexico both came by more than this number. 5* New Mexico Lobos
