ASA
Minnesota at Houston
Play: Under 199.5
Today we go contrarian again with an UNDER bet in the Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets game. At first glance most bettors are going to jump on the OVER in this game but based on our math-model this number should be 191, NOT the 200 the oddsmakers opened with. Neither team is shooting it well right now as Minnesota is coming off a game against Atlanta (thank you Hawks for the Top Game win) in which they hit just 36.4% from the field as a team. Two of the Wolves starters, Telfair and Gomes combined to go 1 of 19 from the field. Overall on the season the Wolves average just 44% shooting from the field when playing on the road so don’t expect a big change from the other night when they couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn. Houston on the other hand has had some problems of their own shooting the basketball as they hit just 39% of their attempts the other night in Memphis and the Grizzlies aren’t really know for their defense (they rank 29th in the NBA in FG% against). Looking at this series we find the scores have ALL been very low when the two teams square off in Houston. In this situation the two teams have combined for just 183, 195, 182, 157 and 161 total points in their last