VegasButcher
#1: New York Giants +4.5
This one dropped from +6, but above +4 there is still ample value here. In my NFL preview I've discussed how I expect Giants D to remain very strong this year as their offense will look to improve after ranking 31st last season. Giants' strength on defense are their corner-backs, so if anyone has a chance to contain Detroit's WR's, NY can do it. And of course typically when an offense ranks 10th, 7th, and 7th in consecutive years, then falls off to 31st, something had to be up. And that something was a lot of injuries, especially on the O-line and at running-back. You can typically expect a bounce-back, and of course with a new Offensive coordinator, that could be a bigger jump than normal.
As far as the Lions are concerned, they're going through a coaching change as Jim Caldwell is taking over this year. But what has Caldwell done in his career? He took over for Dungy after his retirement and oversaw a loaded Colts team behind Peyton Manning to a 14-2 regular season record and a SuperBowl berth. When Manning was out for a full year next season, the Colts ended the year at 2-14 with Caldwell unable to do anything to keep the team competitive. He was then fired. He latched on with the Ravens, took over the Offensive-coordinator job when Cam Cameron was fired, and then helped lead the Ravens to the SuperBowl win. Last season, he oversaw a Ravens offense that ranked 30th in the league in offensive efficiency. Hmmm.... So how much impact has he had on the Colts/Ravens successes and how much is he responsible for their failures the following seasons? Hard to say of course. But what is clear is that both times, Caldwell walked into solid situations and proceeded to have success. He crashed and burned miserably the following years though when his system was fully implemented. Honestly, I'm not very impressed with Caldwell so far. Typically truly 'strong' coaches do not let teams perform as poorly as teams under Caldwell's tutelage did in 2011 (Colts) and 2013 (Ravens' Offense). Regardless, Lions are garnering way too much respect here. Grab the points with the Giants, who I expect to have a strong chance to win this game outright.
#2: Teaser (6.5 pts):
San Diego Chargers +9 / Pittsburgh Steelers +9 (TNF)
I loved San Diego at +3.5, I liked them at +3.0, and now since the line dropped to +2.5, I'm going to tease them up. Crossing 3, 4, 6, and 7 while also pushing if it lands on a 9 is a solid outcome of this teaser. I also believe that San Diego is a better team this year while Arizona is expected to regress (broke this down in my NFL Preview).
As far as the Steelers are concerned, this is a straight fade of the Ravens on the short week. With Ray Rice story re-emerging today, it's a lot to deal with with only 3 days left to prepare. Reports of teammates felling betrayed and lied to are coming out, the insensitive ways that coaches, Baltimore fans, and the whole Ravens organization has reacted to the initial reports/videos is being brought up once again, and of course just overall botching of this by the NFL and Goodell. This is a major distraction and though it's easy to say "these are professional athletes and they know how to deal with adversity", this is an atypical 'adverse' situation. This is also another divisional game between two big rivals, and these tend to end within 3 points quiet often. I forgot the exact stat, but most of the games between PIT and BAL over the last 2/3 years have ended within a FG I believe. I expect this one to be just as close.
