Cajun-Sports NFL Executive Report- MNF
NFL: 17-7 (+31.50) (4-2 Sun)
Time / Date: 8:35 EST / Monday September 21 (ESPN)
Game: New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 12:05 EST September 21
Grade / Prediction: 3* New York Jets +9
Analysis:
The San Diego Chargers will look to avoid a 0-3 start to the 2008 campaign when they host the New York Jets on Monday Night Football on ESPN.
After falling 26-24 to Carolina on the final play in its opener, Norv Turner’s squad went to Denver last week and ended up on the wrong end of a “zebra’s” call in a 39-38 loss to the Broncos.
The Chargers have gotten outstanding play this season from QB Philip Rivers, who enters tonight with a 122.5 passer rating and who has thrown for 594 yards with six TDs and just one INT.
Defensively, however, San Diego has yet to stop anybody, allowing 32.5 points and 437 total yards per game. San Diego is ranked 28th in points allowed and 30th in total defense. Defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell caught tons of heat last year for his vanilla approach before letting players become more aggressive, however they have no Merriman to turn to this season. The Bolts are 10-24 ATS in home games off a loss against a division rival.
The Jets opened the season with a 20-14 road win in Miami as a three-point favorite and then came home last week and lost 19-10 to New England as a one-point favorite. Favre has an NFL-record 445 TD passes but only two in a Jets’ uniform, both coming in the season-opening win over the Dolphins, as last week he finished 18-for-26 for 152 yards with an interception.
Favre’s impact will be felt not only in his ability to stay calm under pressure late in games, but also in the fact that now the Jets have the vertical, downfield passing game they lacked under Chad Pennington. The Jets are 22-6 ATS off a home loss to an AFC East opponent.
Favre will test the beleaguered San Diego secondary, allowing nearly 300 yards through the air (293.5). It’s not entirely the fault of the secondary, since they can’t be expected to defend receivers for five seconds, with the Chargers having just one sack in two games. Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery could be poised for a big night with the Jets 9-1 ATS after scoring three points or less in the first half last game over the last three seasons.
Jets RB Thomas Jones is rushing for 4.4 yards per carry with a rebuilt offensive line, if this continues; this should open up the Jets passing game. If the Jets can establish any type of running game this will allow Favre to throw the ball down field and make this another long evening for the Charger faithful.
Eric Mangini’s defense ranks sixth in the league against the run (76.5 ypg) and eighth in total defense (268.5 ypg). With San Diego Chargers RB LT suffering from turf toe and has been limited at practice this week that could be a huge problem for this Chargers offense. Even with QB Rivers playing extremely well at this time the Chargers must establish the run to set up the pass.
The Jets have had the Chargers number and are 6-1 ATS against them. The Jets are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three trips to San Diego dating to 2002, including a 20-17 upset win as seven-point ‘dogs in a 2005 AFC wild-card matchup. The last time these two teams faced each other was in November 2005, when the Chargers scored a 31-26 road win but failed to cover as a 6½-point road chalk. The visitor is 7-2 (6-3 ATS) in the last nine series clashes dating back to 1989
New York is 4-0 ATS on the road, 9-5 ATS as a road underdog under Mangini and 12-4 ATS following an ATS loss. The Chargers are 0-5 ATS in September contests and 3-7-1 ATS in Week 3 action.
The Jets are 15-2 ATS as a dog the week after a straight up loss in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. The Jets are 9-0-1 ATS as a road 7+ dog when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Jets are 7-0-1 ATS as a road dog when they had at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks. The Jets are 7-0 ATS when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak.
The Chargers are 1-10 ATS versus a non-divisional opponent between divisional opponents.
Our Technical Situation Report shows that New York is in a positive situation for teams with a big play yardage percentage for >50 and facing an opponent with a play book execution passing attempts >1.3 with a total of <48 and a time of possession for >23 in their last game, 51-7 ATS since 1994. San Diego is in a negative situation for home teams with an Over % >90, coming off back-to-back points against <21, 2-18 ATS since 1994.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that says to Play AGAINST a Monday conference home team (not a favorite of 10+ points or underdog of more than 9 points) with a TOTAL over 35 points off a SU loss of less than 5 points in its last game, 16-0-1 ATS since 1995.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* NEW YORK JETS +9
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