Sports Advisors
N.Y. Jets (1-1 SU and ATS) at San Diego (0-2 SU and ATS)
The Chargers will try to avoid an 0-3 start when they welcome Brett Favre and the Jets to Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego.
After falling 26-24 to Carolina on the final play in its opener, Norv Turner’s squad went to Denver last week and ended up on the wrong end of an officiating blunder in a 39-38 loss to the Broncos in a pick-em contest. The Chargers have gotten outstanding play this season from QB Philip Rivers, who enters tonight with a 122.5 passer rating and who has thrown for 594 yards with six TDs and just one INT. Defensively, however, San Diego has yet to stop anybody, allowing 32.5 points and 437 total yards per game.
The Jets opened the season with a 20-14 road win in Miami as a three-point favorite and then came home last week and lost 19-10 to New England as a one-point favorite. Favre has an NFL-record 445 TD passes but only two in a Jets’ uniform, both coming in the season-opening win over the Dolphins, as last week he finished 18-for-26 for 152 yards with an interception. Eric Mangini’s defense ranks sixth in the league against the run (76.5 ypg) and eighth in total defense (268.5 ypg).
The Jets are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three trips to San Diego dating to 2002, including a 20-17 upset win as seven-point ‘dogs in a 2005 AFC wild-card matchup. The last time these two teams faced each other was in November 2005, when the Chargers scored a 31-26 road win but failed to cover as a 6½-point road chalk. The visitor is 7-2 (6-3 ATS) in the last nine series clashes dating back to 1989, with the straight-up winner going 8-1 ATS during this stretch.
Favre went 5-0 SU against the Chargers in his Packers career, including a 31-24 upset win in Green Bay in Week 3 last season.
New York is on ATS slides of 1-5 against teams with a losing record and 1-4-1 in Week 3 games, but its ATS streaks include 4-0 on the road, 9-5 as a road underdog under Mangini and 12-4 following a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Chargers are in ATS ruts of 0-5 in September contests and 3-7-1 in Week 3 action, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 44-22-2 overall, 35-17-3 against AFC squads, 7-1 at home and 19-8-2 following a SU loss.
The Jets are on under streaks of 6-0 overall (all against the AFC), 4-1 on the road and 7-3-1 against teams with a losing record. Conversely, San Diego is on over runs of 5-0 in September games, 10-2 following an ATS loss and 6-1 following a SU defeat, but the under is 4-0 the last four times the Chargers have played on Monday night.
Finally, all four Monday night games this season have flown over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (94-60) at N.Y. Mets (86-69)
The N.L. Central champion Cubs travel to Shea Stadium in New York and send veteran right-hander Jason Marquis (10-9, 4.39 ERA) to the mound to face the Mets’ Jonathon Niese (1-0, 4.09) as New York continues its push for the playoffs.
The Mets fell 7-6 in Atlanta on Sunday and lost a game in the standings as Philadelphia scored a 5-2 win in Florida to move 1½ games clear of New York in the N.L. East standings. However, the Mets lead the Brewers by 1½ games in the wild-card race. Jerry Manuel’s club has seven games left, all at Shea, including this four-game set with Chicago and a season-ending three-game series with the Marlins.
The Mets are 24-11 in their last 35 home games and 13-6 in their last 19 against right-handed starters, but they are just 4-11 in their last 15 Monday contests.
The Cubs, who clinched their second straight division title on Saturday, have won eight of their last 10 games and they are on positive streaks of 19-7 on the road, 6-0 on the highway against southpaws, 10-4 against the N.L. East and 6-2 when Marquis works on the road.
Chicago has won both matchups this season against the Mets way back in April, outscoring New York 15-2 in a brief two-game set at Wrigley. The home team is 13-7 in the last 20 head-to-head meetings, and the Mets have won four of the last five at Shea.
Marquis is 6-3 with a 3.05 ERA on the road, including a 14-9 victory in his most recent outing on the highway as he held the Reds to two runs on five hits over 7 1/3 innings. The right-hander hasn’t faced the Mets this season, but lost twice last year as a Cubs’ starter, giving up a combined nine runs in 10 1/3 innings.
Niese is making just his third big-league start and is coming off a gem on Sept. 13 when he blanked the Braves for eight innings in a 5-0 Mets’ win.
The under is 8-3-1 in Chicago’s last 12 overall, 6-0 on the road and 12-4-1 in its last 17 against winning teams, but the over is 9-0-1 in Marquis’ last 10 starts against N.L. East squads. For New York, the over is on runs of 12-5-1 at home, 21-9-3 against right-handed starters, 35-17-3 versus the N.L. Central and 8-2-3 on Mondays.
Finally, the over is 10-3-1 in the last 14 matchups between these squads, including 4-0 in the last four at Shea.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS and OVER
Arizona (78-77) at St. Louis (80-75)
The Diamondbacks send ace Brandon Webb (21-7, 3.34 ERA) to the mound opposite the Cardinals’ Todd Wellemeyer (12-8, 3.66) as they kick off a four-game series at Busch Stadium in St. Louis.
Arizona trails the Dodgers by 2½ games in the race for the N.L. West title after Sunday’s 13-4 rout of the Rockies in Colorado and can make up a half-game with a win tonight, as Los Angeles is idle. The DBacks have won six of their last seven overall, but they are just 2-11 in their last 13 on the highway. With Webb on the hill, Arizona is on streaks of 8-3 overall, 21-8 when he pitches a series opener and 21-5 when he faces a team from the N.L. Central.
St. Louis is just 2-11 in its last 13 games and comes into this one off Sunday’s 5-1 loss to the Cubs. The Cardinals went 2-7 on their just-completed road trip and they are just 2-6 in series openers and 2-5 in their last seven against right-handed starters. However, they have won 10 of their last 14 against N.L. West squads and have taken 15 of the last 21 against Arizona at Busch Stadium. Also, the Redbirds are 5-2 the last seven times they’ve faced Webb.
Webb gave up three runs (two earned) in a 7-6 win at home against the Giants on Wednesday, as the DBacks improved to 7-3 in the right-hander’s last 10 outings. Webb is 10-5 with a 3.45 ERA on the road this year, but he got rocked in his last two as a visitor, allowing a combined 13 runs in 10 1/3 innings in losses at San Diego and Los Angeles. Also, the last time Webb went to St. Louis, he allowed five runs on seven hits in six innings of an 11-3 loss in July 2007.
Wellemeyer is just 1-2 despite a solid 2.84 ERA in his last three starts. In fact, St. Louis has lost four of Wellemeyer’s last five efforts, getting shut out in three of those five games. In his last home outing, Wellemeyer yielded two runs (zero earned) in five innings against the Cubs, but failed to get a decision in his team’s 3-2 home defeat. Finally, in his lone career start against Arizona last July, the right-hander gave up six runs (four earned) in just three innings of a 7-1 loss.
The under is 9-2 in the D’Backs’ last 11 overall and 4-0 in their last four against N.L. Central teams. However, with Webb on the hill, the over is on runs of 5-1 on the road, 8-0 on Mondays, 4-1 against teams with a winning record and 6-2 against the N.L. Central. For the Cardinals, the under is on runs of 6-0 at home and 4-0 with Wellemeyer on the hill, but the over is 5-1 in Wellemeyer’s last six against the N.L. West.
Finally, the over has also been the play in four of the last five series clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER<!-- / message -->
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