SPORTS WAGERS
SAN FRANCISCO +6 over New Orleans
We all saw the results yesterday of overreactions to teams that had good and bad starts to open the year. We had overreactions to the Pats, Seahawks, Texans, Ravens, Giants and Tennessee to name a few and there was a definite under-reaction to the Jets after they couldn’t move five yards against the Ravens. Having said that, no team was more disappointing or lifeless than these 49ers in week one when they went into Seattle and got belted 31-6. That score looks even worse after Seattle got lashed in Denver yesterday. This is another under-reaction to a week one score and it works in the 49ers favor. Perhaps they were looking ahead to this home opener, who knows? What we do know is that San Fran was a big favorite to win the NFC West and that they’re loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Alex Smith was putrid in week one but don’t put too much emphasis on that. Mike Singletary is no fool and if he didn’t believe in Smith he would not play him. Smith isn’t Joe Montana but he’s very capable of doing some damage and so, too, is the 49ers defense. The Saints are the Saints and they’re a legit threat to repeat but this isn’t about them, as they need no introductions. What we have here is a favorable spot for the home side. We have a home-pooch on Monday Night Football, which is almost always a ticket that gets cashed and we have the aforementioned under-reaction to the 49ers. So, you can break down the X’s and O’s all you want but that doesn’t work. You’re going to see a different San Fran squad tonight and you’re going to see one that’ll be more prepared and a million times more fired up than they were in its opener. This one has upset written all over it. Play: San Francisco +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Houston +1.22 over WASHINGTON
We’re not saying that Livan Hernandez can’t win this game but putting too much stock into this guy is a risk that should be avoided. On August 27th, the Nats announced that Stephen Strasburg had a significant tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament and was soon to join The Tommy John Club. On August 29th, the Nationals made matters worse when they signed Hernandez to a one-year, $1M contract with additional incentives as GM Mike Rizzo crowed, "We think he has earned it." The surface stats say this isn't a bad idea for the Nationals, but the skill set say otherwise. Hernandez's 3.82 ERA looks like a huge improvement over the last four years until you see that his xERA (4.93), which says "this is the same old ticking time bomb." That BPV (27) says this is a boring "skill set" with a capital "B". To what can we ascribe Livan Hernandez's resurgence in 2010? Whatever it is, it certainly isn't skill. So whatever you do, don't make the same mistake the Washington Nationals just made and invest in this guys arm. If you hadn't already taken notice of Bud Norris you probably did last month when he fanned 14 Pirates over 7 innings - his second double-digit strikeout game of the year. Norris' xERA is more than a run below his actual ERA thanks to a 67% strand rate and the best news is that the Nats have never seen this guy while everyone has seen Hernandez about 1000 times. Play: Houston +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.07 over DETROIT
After his everything-went-right 2009 Cy Young campaign, it was only realistic to expect some regression in Zack Greinke's numbers for 2010. But a near-4.00 ERA and single-digit wins in the middle of September is a little hard to swallow. Still, his great control remains and he's seen an impressive increase in groundball %. If he can maintain the GB gains, it will be another considerable weapon in his arsenal. His three-season **BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page) average is an excellent 110, indicating that yes, Greinke is still a stud starter from a straight-skills perspective and it’s also worth noting the Royals are averaging just under six runs per game over the last eight. Current Royals hitters are batting a combined .303 of Rick Porcello (42-133). They saw him two weeks ago and got to him for four runs in 7 IP. Porcello missed his last start after he aggravated a tendon in his finger and skipping starts is not usually beneficial. Porcello has been pitching better of late for sure. His 5.10 ERA on the year is somewhat misleading given his 50% groundball rate on the year but in no way is he in the same class as Greinke and thus, we’ll look to take advantage. Play: Kansas City +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
SAN FRANCISCO +6 over New Orleans
We all saw the results yesterday of overreactions to teams that had good and bad starts to open the year. We had overreactions to the Pats, Seahawks, Texans, Ravens, Giants and Tennessee to name a few and there was a definite under-reaction to the Jets after they couldn’t move five yards against the Ravens. Having said that, no team was more disappointing or lifeless than these 49ers in week one when they went into Seattle and got belted 31-6. That score looks even worse after Seattle got lashed in Denver yesterday. This is another under-reaction to a week one score and it works in the 49ers favor. Perhaps they were looking ahead to this home opener, who knows? What we do know is that San Fran was a big favorite to win the NFC West and that they’re loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Alex Smith was putrid in week one but don’t put too much emphasis on that. Mike Singletary is no fool and if he didn’t believe in Smith he would not play him. Smith isn’t Joe Montana but he’s very capable of doing some damage and so, too, is the 49ers defense. The Saints are the Saints and they’re a legit threat to repeat but this isn’t about them, as they need no introductions. What we have here is a favorable spot for the home side. We have a home-pooch on Monday Night Football, which is almost always a ticket that gets cashed and we have the aforementioned under-reaction to the 49ers. So, you can break down the X’s and O’s all you want but that doesn’t work. You’re going to see a different San Fran squad tonight and you’re going to see one that’ll be more prepared and a million times more fired up than they were in its opener. This one has upset written all over it. Play: San Francisco +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Houston +1.22 over WASHINGTON
We’re not saying that Livan Hernandez can’t win this game but putting too much stock into this guy is a risk that should be avoided. On August 27th, the Nats announced that Stephen Strasburg had a significant tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament and was soon to join The Tommy John Club. On August 29th, the Nationals made matters worse when they signed Hernandez to a one-year, $1M contract with additional incentives as GM Mike Rizzo crowed, "We think he has earned it." The surface stats say this isn't a bad idea for the Nationals, but the skill set say otherwise. Hernandez's 3.82 ERA looks like a huge improvement over the last four years until you see that his xERA (4.93), which says "this is the same old ticking time bomb." That BPV (27) says this is a boring "skill set" with a capital "B". To what can we ascribe Livan Hernandez's resurgence in 2010? Whatever it is, it certainly isn't skill. So whatever you do, don't make the same mistake the Washington Nationals just made and invest in this guys arm. If you hadn't already taken notice of Bud Norris you probably did last month when he fanned 14 Pirates over 7 innings - his second double-digit strikeout game of the year. Norris' xERA is more than a run below his actual ERA thanks to a 67% strand rate and the best news is that the Nats have never seen this guy while everyone has seen Hernandez about 1000 times. Play: Houston +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.07 over DETROIT
After his everything-went-right 2009 Cy Young campaign, it was only realistic to expect some regression in Zack Greinke's numbers for 2010. But a near-4.00 ERA and single-digit wins in the middle of September is a little hard to swallow. Still, his great control remains and he's seen an impressive increase in groundball %. If he can maintain the GB gains, it will be another considerable weapon in his arsenal. His three-season **BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page) average is an excellent 110, indicating that yes, Greinke is still a stud starter from a straight-skills perspective and it’s also worth noting the Royals are averaging just under six runs per game over the last eight. Current Royals hitters are batting a combined .303 of Rick Porcello (42-133). They saw him two weeks ago and got to him for four runs in 7 IP. Porcello missed his last start after he aggravated a tendon in his finger and skipping starts is not usually beneficial. Porcello has been pitching better of late for sure. His 5.10 ERA on the year is somewhat misleading given his 50% groundball rate on the year but in no way is he in the same class as Greinke and thus, we’ll look to take advantage. Play: Kansas City +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
Monday Night MLB System Play of the Day- GC
On Monday night the MLB play of the day is on the LA. Angels. Game 968 at 10:05 eastern. The Angles fit a solid MLB power system tonight that plays on certain home favorites off a road dog win at +140 or higher, if they won by 2 or more runs and scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent that scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits. These home teams are 11-1 the past few years and win by an average 5-2 score. The Angels came away with a big dog win in Tampa on Sunday and have played well of late despite having no hope of a playoff appearance. Texas lost on Sunday in a close game in Seattle and may be ready to level off after a real nice win streak earlier in the month. The Angles have taken 4 of the 6 games played here this season and have their ace on the mound. J. Weaver makes the start tonight and he has been superb at home this season. He has a 1.56 era in all home starts this season and has been solid in his last 3 outings with a 1.64 era. He has Dominated the Texas lineup allowing no earned runs in 14 innings pitched here at home. Both of which were wins. Texas counters with D. Holland tonight. Holland has a dismal 6.48 era in his limited road starts this year and not surprisingly Texas has lost 3 of the 4 he has pitched away from home. LA has a solid chance of winning this one tonight. For the MLB Top play take the LA. Angels tonight. GC
On Monday night the MLB play of the day is on the LA. Angels. Game 968 at 10:05 eastern. The Angles fit a solid MLB power system tonight that plays on certain home favorites off a road dog win at +140 or higher, if they won by 2 or more runs and scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent that scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits. These home teams are 11-1 the past few years and win by an average 5-2 score. The Angels came away with a big dog win in Tampa on Sunday and have played well of late despite having no hope of a playoff appearance. Texas lost on Sunday in a close game in Seattle and may be ready to level off after a real nice win streak earlier in the month. The Angles have taken 4 of the 6 games played here this season and have their ace on the mound. J. Weaver makes the start tonight and he has been superb at home this season. He has a 1.56 era in all home starts this season and has been solid in his last 3 outings with a 1.64 era. He has Dominated the Texas lineup allowing no earned runs in 14 innings pitched here at home. Both of which were wins. Texas counters with D. Holland tonight. Holland has a dismal 6.48 era in his limited road starts this year and not surprisingly Texas has lost 3 of the 4 he has pitched away from home. LA has a solid chance of winning this one tonight. For the MLB Top play take the LA. Angels tonight. GC
Bobby Maxwell
Monday's winner...
300-Unit NFL Monday Mismatch - SAN FRANCISCO NINERS
These two former NFC West rivals will go at it under the lights tonight and I’m banking on the Niners showing up and giving a maximum effort against the defending Super Bowl champs. I’m not saying they win the game outright, but this one is coming down to a final kick at the end of the game. So grab the points with San Francisco tonight.
The Niners have started 0-2 in a season since 2004. They looked absolutely terrible in Seattle last week, losing 31-6 after an undefeated preseason and when they were getting all the publicity for being the NFC West champ this year. QB Alex Smith threw for 225 yards but had two interceptions during a seven-minute span that saw the Seahawks score 28 points.
That short span turned the game into a blowout. The Niners defense held Seattle to just 165 passing yards and 77 rushing yards. That’s a dominant performance but went all for not in the loss. They will come to play again tonight and they will get to Brees.
New Orleans beat the Vikings in the opening game of the season 10 days ago, winning 14-9 at home. They managed just 308 yards, more than 100 less than they averaged in their Super bowl season. They’ve got questions with their kicker Garrett Harltley who missed two field goals indoors. And the receivers dropped several passes.
San Francisco is 22-10-2 at home against the Saints, but New Orleans has won the last four overall meetings.
The Niners are on several positive ATS streaks, including 3-0-1 at home, 4-0 in the second week of the season, 16-5 on Monday nights, 5-2 in September, 8-2-2 against winning teams and 3-0-1 after a straight-up loss.
Meanwhile, the Saints are on ATS slides of 3-9 against NFC teams, 1-4 after a straight-up win and 1-5 against teams with losing records.
I’ll grab the points and go with the Niners as I see this one coming right down to the final snap and a last-second kick winning it either way. Play San Francisco.
Monday's winner...
300-Unit NFL Monday Mismatch - SAN FRANCISCO NINERS
These two former NFC West rivals will go at it under the lights tonight and I’m banking on the Niners showing up and giving a maximum effort against the defending Super Bowl champs. I’m not saying they win the game outright, but this one is coming down to a final kick at the end of the game. So grab the points with San Francisco tonight.
The Niners have started 0-2 in a season since 2004. They looked absolutely terrible in Seattle last week, losing 31-6 after an undefeated preseason and when they were getting all the publicity for being the NFC West champ this year. QB Alex Smith threw for 225 yards but had two interceptions during a seven-minute span that saw the Seahawks score 28 points.
That short span turned the game into a blowout. The Niners defense held Seattle to just 165 passing yards and 77 rushing yards. That’s a dominant performance but went all for not in the loss. They will come to play again tonight and they will get to Brees.
New Orleans beat the Vikings in the opening game of the season 10 days ago, winning 14-9 at home. They managed just 308 yards, more than 100 less than they averaged in their Super bowl season. They’ve got questions with their kicker Garrett Harltley who missed two field goals indoors. And the receivers dropped several passes.
San Francisco is 22-10-2 at home against the Saints, but New Orleans has won the last four overall meetings.
The Niners are on several positive ATS streaks, including 3-0-1 at home, 4-0 in the second week of the season, 16-5 on Monday nights, 5-2 in September, 8-2-2 against winning teams and 3-0-1 after a straight-up loss.
Meanwhile, the Saints are on ATS slides of 3-9 against NFC teams, 1-4 after a straight-up win and 1-5 against teams with losing records.
I’ll grab the points and go with the Niners as I see this one coming right down to the final snap and a last-second kick winning it either way. Play San Francisco.
