Larry Ness' Monday Game of the Month (17-4-1 NFL run s/Aug 28!)
My 9* Monday Night Game of the Month is on the SF 49ers underdogs are always intriguing propositions for Monday Night Football and the 2010 season has seen home dogs open 8-3 ATS. Why can't the 49ers cover or even win this game? For those of you who are regular readers of my columns, you'll remember that I pointed out this factoid in one of my preseason articles. Eleven of the last 13 teams to finish 8-8 (or worse) since 2004 have rebounded to post winning records the following season. Their collective records jumped from 100-108 (.481) to 130-77-1 (.627)! The 49ers fall right into that group, going 8-8 last season despite outscoring opponents by 49 points. Also, while preseason results have never shown any direct correlation to regular season success, I will note that the 49ers were 2010's lone preseason unbeaten at 4-0. Nothing went right for the 49ers in their Week 1 loss in Seattle. An AWFUL stretch of football over a seven-minute span in that game saw the Seahawks score 28 points. That decided it! Win or lose, I try not to make the mistake of reading too much into the results of one week. Things tend to balance out. The San Francisco defense actually played very well in Week 1, as it held the Seahawks to just 242 total yards. This should not be a surprise to anyone, as the 49ers were #4th in the NFL in scoring defense last season (17.6 PPG) and this is the clear strength of Mike Singletary's group. Alex Smith HAS to play better at QB, as the former No. 1 overall pick was awful vs Seattle (26-of-45, 225 yards, 2 INTs). One has to believe that RB Frank Gore (38 yards rushing) will be better, as the former Miani-Fla product is the only player to surpass 1,000 yards rushing in four straight years in team history. How can one take issue with the Saints? I won't but I will note that the team hasn't played since September 9 (longest lay-off of any team). The team and fans were 'sky high' for their season-opener against the Vikings and one has to wonder if the club can match that type of intensity and effort in this one. After all, considering the Vikings returned home in Week 2 to lose to the Dolphins (while scoring just 14 points), one has to wonder if beating the Vikings (just 14-9) is much of a big deal. Handicapping the NFL is often about 'feel,' and as I mentioned in my Bonus Play winner on Sunday (Jets over the Pats), this has the 'smell' of an outright San Francisco win.
My 9* Monday Night Game of the Month is on the SF 49ers underdogs are always intriguing propositions for Monday Night Football and the 2010 season has seen home dogs open 8-3 ATS. Why can't the 49ers cover or even win this game? For those of you who are regular readers of my columns, you'll remember that I pointed out this factoid in one of my preseason articles. Eleven of the last 13 teams to finish 8-8 (or worse) since 2004 have rebounded to post winning records the following season. Their collective records jumped from 100-108 (.481) to 130-77-1 (.627)! The 49ers fall right into that group, going 8-8 last season despite outscoring opponents by 49 points. Also, while preseason results have never shown any direct correlation to regular season success, I will note that the 49ers were 2010's lone preseason unbeaten at 4-0. Nothing went right for the 49ers in their Week 1 loss in Seattle. An AWFUL stretch of football over a seven-minute span in that game saw the Seahawks score 28 points. That decided it! Win or lose, I try not to make the mistake of reading too much into the results of one week. Things tend to balance out. The San Francisco defense actually played very well in Week 1, as it held the Seahawks to just 242 total yards. This should not be a surprise to anyone, as the 49ers were #4th in the NFL in scoring defense last season (17.6 PPG) and this is the clear strength of Mike Singletary's group. Alex Smith HAS to play better at QB, as the former No. 1 overall pick was awful vs Seattle (26-of-45, 225 yards, 2 INTs). One has to believe that RB Frank Gore (38 yards rushing) will be better, as the former Miani-Fla product is the only player to surpass 1,000 yards rushing in four straight years in team history. How can one take issue with the Saints? I won't but I will note that the team hasn't played since September 9 (longest lay-off of any team). The team and fans were 'sky high' for their season-opener against the Vikings and one has to wonder if the club can match that type of intensity and effort in this one. After all, considering the Vikings returned home in Week 2 to lose to the Dolphins (while scoring just 14 points), one has to wonder if beating the Vikings (just 14-9) is much of a big deal. Handicapping the NFL is often about 'feel,' and as I mentioned in my Bonus Play winner on Sunday (Jets over the Pats), this has the 'smell' of an outright San Francisco win.
Thanks so much for this info. Please do keep posting. I tried to PM (private message) you but you don't have that turned on on your settings. Turn it on so I can send you a message. I'm willing to go in on some of these bets with you. This guy seems legit. His reasoning behind the ML is really intriguing. SF is winning as of now and very well might not win, but he's still a smart guy. Keep in touch.
